The MTNCLIM Year: Western Climate 2013-14 in Perspective
Kelly T. Redmond
Western Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute
Reno Nevada
Midway UT
In the Heart of the Wasatch
15-18 September 2014
July 2013
August 2013
Crowley Lake, Aspen Fire, 37000 ft. 20130805. Kelly Redmond.
High Sierra, S from Yosemite, 237,000 ft. Aspen Fire. 20130805. Kelly Redmond.
South from San Diego into Mexico. KRNO to KSAN. Southwest Airlines. 20130805.
Summer 2013
Daily
Rim Fire
Perimeter
Progression
2013
Aug 20 - Sep 4
Night Images
VIIRS
aboard
Suomi NPP
(National
Polar-Orbiting
Partnership)
MODIS
250 m
2013
27 Sep
Rim Fire
False
Color
Great Basin Smoke
MODIS
2013 August 22
MODIS
500 m
2013 Aug 22
Rim Fire
(south)
American
Fire
(north)
MODIS
500 m
2013 Aug 26
Rim Fire
(south)
American
Fire
(north)
Typical Reno visibility from DRI.
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Downtown Reno.
2013 Aug 28
Scott Sonner, Associated Press
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Rim Fire: 700 mb Pattern 2014
Aug 25
Aug 29
Aug 26
Aug 30
Aug 27
Aug 31
Aug 28
Sep 01
September 2013
October 2013
Water Year 2013
2012 Oct 01
thru
2013 Sep 30
Water Year 2013
2012 Oct 01
thru
2013 Sep 30
Water Year
2010-11
01 Oct 2010
Thru
30 Sep 2011
Water Year
2011-12
01 Oct 2011
Thru
30 Sep 2012
Water Year
2012-13
01 Oct 2012
Thru
30 Sep 2013
Water Year
2013-14 to date
01 Oct 2013
Thru
10 Sep 2014
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Dedication: 1913 November 5
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Start of the Los Angeles Aqueduct
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Los Angeles Aqueduct near intake. Gravity feed all 300 miles to Los Angeles.
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Owens River natural channel at Los Angeles Aqueduct intake diversion. 58 cfs to Owens Lake.
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November 2013
Autumn 2013
Copper River Alaska
Dust Plume
20131116
MODIS 1 km
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MODIS 1 km
Fog
Grand Canyon
MODIS 1 km
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December 2013
January 2014
Annual 2013
Reno NV 2013 Dec 31 Looking South from DRI
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Annual Mean Temperature ( F )
53
Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature
Red: Individual Years. Blue: 11-year running mean. 1895-2013.
Units: Deg F. Data from NOAA Cooperative Network thru Jan 2014.
52
51
50
49
48
47
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
2007
2008
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2014 thru July
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
Reno and Lake Tahoe. Almost no snow.
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Sierra Valley and Sierra Butte, north of Reno
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Mount Lassen National Park.
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A Nearly Snowless Mount Shasta in mid-January
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Mount Shasta and Klamath Basin Fog, Looking to NW
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Klamath Falls, Upper Klamath Basin, Mt McLoughlin
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Crater Lake ... America’s Largest Rain Gauge
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Crater Lake. Snow only above about 6000 ft.
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Willamette Valley Looking South. Dry Winter = Fog
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Colby Fire 20140116
February 2014
Winter 2013-14
March 2014
April 2014
California Dept of
Water Resources
Wettest
1982-83
2010-2011
Average
2012-13
2011-12
2013-14
Lowest
1923-24
California Dept of
Water Resources
Wettest
1982-83
Average
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
1976-77
Lowest
1923-24
2013-14 Regional Snowpack
Wettest, Driest
2012-13
2013-14
Northern Sierra
Central Sierra
Southern Sierra
CA Dept of Water Resources
May 2014
Spring 2014
Socorro Island
Vortex Shedding
MODIS 500 m
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June 2014
July 2014
Lee Waves, Crozet Islands, MODIS 500 m, 20140409
Smoke
Russia
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MODIS 1 km
August 2014
Summer 2014
East of Mt Hood,
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September 2014 thru 9th
Water Year 2013-14 thru Sep 9th
Great Basin. Cloudy everywhere !!! 20140804
Calendar Year
Precipitation
Rank
Jan-Dec
2013
1896
Thru
2014
Lowest 10 %
Record
Driest
Oct-Mar
Precipitation
Rank
1895-96
Thru
2013-14
Lowest 10 %
Record
Driest
Jun-Jul-Aug
Precipitation
Rank
1895
Thru
2014
Lowest 10 %
Record
Driest
365 Days Temperature Ending 13 September 2014
Fire
Near Yosemite.
20140908
Number of Fires
250000
Number of U.S. Wildland Fires through September 22, 2012.
(numbers after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007)
Average 1996-2011 = 79278 per year. 10-yr 58378
Updated by hand thru
15 September 2014
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.htm
Number of acres
10000000
Acres burned U.S. Fires through September 22, 2012
Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007.
Ave from 1996-2011 = 6.08 M acres. 10-yr 6,526,417
Updated by hand thru
15 September 2014
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.htm
University of Alabama – Huntsville. Roy Spencer
Select: Uinta Range, 12 months ending in Dec, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.
Elevation of Freezing Level. Uinta Mountains. Annual. 1948 - 2013.
Elevation of Freezing Level. Uinta Mountains. Seasonal. 1948 - 2014.
Winter
Summer
Spring
Autumn
Percent of Reanlysis precipitation with below-freezing temperature at 2000 m / 6600 ft.
Uinta Mountins. Annual. 1948 - 2013.
“snow”
“rain”
Sep 28, 1999
Sep 24, 2002
Sep 26, 2000
Sep 30, 2003
Sep 25, 2001
Sep 21, 2004
Sep 27, 2005
Sep 30, 2008
Sep 26, 2006
Sep 29, 2009
Sep 25, 2007
Sep 28, 2010
Sep 29, 2009
Sep 26, 2012
Sep 28, 2010
Sep 27, 2011
Sep 24, 2013
Sep 9, 2014
Lake Powell Storage Through September 10, 2014
Currently 51 % full (capacity 24.17 MAF)
Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
Lake Powell Elevation Through September 10, 2014
Water level on Sep 10, 2014 was 3605.83 ft, - 94 ft below full.
Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full.
Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.htl
Hite Marina 20130506
Through August 2014
“El Nino”
“La Nina”
NOAA ESRL, Wolter and Timlin
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures
Updated through 2014 Aug 31 - Sep 6
Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) Aug 31 - Sep 06 2014
Early September 2014
One Month
Sep Temp
Temperature & Precipitation
Official Outlooks
2014
Three Month
Sep Precip
Sep-Oct-Nov T
Sep-Oct-Nov P
Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of drier than usual
Green
- Higher likelihood of wetter than usual
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Eight experiments in near-term climate forecasting N-D-J 2014-15. Precipitation.
NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble).
IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble).
Dynamical
Models
CFSv2: US Climate
Forecasting System
version 2
CMC1: Canadian
Meteorological Center
version 1
CMC2: Canadian
Meteorological Center
version 2
GFDL: US
Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory
NCAR: US National
Center for
Atmospheric
Research
NASA: US National
Aeronautics and
Space Administration
NMME: National
Multi-Model Ensemble
IMME: International
Multi-Model Ensemble
2014 Sep 11
Eight experiments in near-term climate forecasting N-D-J 2014-15. Temperature.
NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble).
IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble).
Dynamical
Models
CFSv2: US Climate
Forecasting System
version 2
CMC1: Canadian
Meteorological Center
version 1
CMC2: Canadian
Meteorological Center
version 2
GFDL: US
Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory
NCAR: US National
Center for
Atmospheric
Research
NASA: US National
Aeronautics and
Space Administration
NMME: National
Multi-Model Ensemble
IMME: International
Multi-Model Ensemble
2014 Sep 11
Sea Ice Extent
10 Sep 2014
10 September 2014
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White Mountain Summit. 10 minute Average Wind Speeds.
275 days ending 20140915.
White Mountain Summit. 10 minute Maximum Wind Gusts.
275 days ending 20140915.
White Mountain Summit. 10 Mean Temperature.
275 days ending 20140915.
White Mountain Summit (14245 ft / 4342 m) reconstruction for 2004.
Observed values (black).
GR (Global Reanalysis) reconstructed values (red, offset +5 oC).
CR (Century Reanalysis) reconstructed values (blue, offset -5 oC ).
Quality of Estimates
Based on Regression Against
Interpolated Daily Global Reanalysis Data
Elevational transect.
White Mountain
Mean Annual Temperature
Reconstructed from
Global Reanalysis
Century Reanalysis
Calibrated with
4 years of
White Mountain Summit
observations
19th Century warming
using Century Reanalysis
appears to be spurious.
Recommend not using
Century Reanalysis in
this setting !!
Reminder to Danielle: Perhaps you might consider a cylindrical cow.
Between Austin and Eureka. Nevada Great Basin.
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Meet the Beetles. Wolf Creek Pass (Utah).
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East Fork of Black’s Fork of Bear River, Uinta Range.
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The Forest Has Eyes (Bev Doolittle). The wood has eyes too.
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Thank
You !
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