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Government of Afghanistan
Ministry of Counter Narcotics
Vienna International Centre, P.O. Box 500, A-1400 Vienna, Austria
Tel: (+43 1) 26060-0, Fax: (+43 1) 26060-5866, www.unodc.org
Afghanistan
January 2009
Opium Winter Assessment
ABBREVIATIONS
AGE Anti Government Elements
GPS Global Positioning System
ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC)
ORA Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey
MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics
UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2007
Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report:
Survey and Monitoring Directorate of the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics:
Eng. Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar (Director), Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director)
Survey Coordinators: Abdul Mateen (Eastern Region), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Western Region), Fida
Mohammad (Northern Region), Sayeed Esaq Masomi (Central region), Mohammed Ishaq
Anderabi (North-eastern Region), and Hashmatullah Asek (Southern Region).
Technical staff: Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Data Expert), Mohammad Ajmal (Data Clerk), Sahar
(Data Clerk).
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul)
Jean-Luc Lemahieu (Country Representative)
Shirish Ravan (Project Coordinator, RAS/ICMP),
Ziauddin Zaki (National Project Coordinator), Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Officer), Sayed
Mehdi (Remote Sensing Analyst), Ahmad Jawid (Remote Sensing Analyst), Ramin Sobhi and Zia
Ulhaq (Verification Reporters), Devashish Dhar (International Consultant)
Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (Eastern Region), Abdul Jalil (Northern Region), Abdul
Qadir Palwal (Southern Region), Fawad Alaie (Western Region), Mohammad Rafi Kabiri (Northeastern Region), Rahimullah Omar (Central Region), Sayed Ahmad (Southern Region), Abdul
Rahim Marikh (Eastern Region), Fardin Osmani (Northern Region)
Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (Southern Region), Mohammad Alam Ghalib
(Eastern Region), Altaf Hussain Joya (Western Region), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (North-eastern
Region), Lutfi Rahman Lutfi (Northern Region)
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna)
Sandeep Chawla (Director, Division of Policy Analysis and Public Affairs)
Angela Me (Chief, Statistics and Surveys Section - SASS)
Fernanda Tripodi (Programme Officer, SASS/ICMP), Javier Teran (Statistician, SASS/ICMP),
Coen Bussink (Remote Sensing Expert – SASS/ICMP), Patrick Seramy (Database management,
SASS/ICMP), Thomas Pietschmann (Research Officer, SASS),
The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the
field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions.
The UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial
contributions from the Governments of Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States of
America.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.
FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1.
1.2.
1.3.
1.4.
1.5.
1.6.
1.7.
1.8.
1.9.
2.
GENERAL FINDINGS .................................................................................................... 1
DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2009............... 10
NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM POPPY ............................................. 14
CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR POPPY CULTIVATION ................................ 14
AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE ................................................................................ 14
FIELD SECURITY DURING ORA IMPLEMENTATION .......................................... 15
ERADICATION AND NON-CULTIVATION OF OPIUM.......................................... 16
PRICES........................................................................................................................... 17
OTHER FINDINGS ....................................................................................................... 19
FINDINGS BY PROVINCE ................................................................................................. 26
NORTH-EASTERN REGION..................................................................................................... 26
BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE.................................................................................................... 26
TAKHAR PROVINCE .............................................................................................................. 26
KUNDUZ PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 27
EASTERN REGION.................................................................................................................... 28
NANGARHAR PROVINCE ...................................................................................................... 28
KUNAR PROVINCE ................................................................................................................ 28
LAGHMAN PROVINCE........................................................................................................... 28
NURISTAN PROVINCE........................................................................................................... 29
KAPISA PROVINCE ................................................................................................................ 29
NORTHERN REGION ................................................................................................................ 30
BAGHLAN PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 30
BAMYAN PROVINCE .............................................................................................................. 30
BALKH PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 30
FARYAB PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 31
JAWZJAN PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 31
SAMANGAN PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 31
SARI PUL PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 32
CENTRAL REGION ................................................................................................................... 33
GHAZNI PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 33
KHOST PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 33
LOGAR PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 33
PAKTIKA PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 34
PAKTYA PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 34
PARWAN PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 34
PANJSHIR PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 35
WARDAK PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 35
KABUL PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 35
SOUTHERN REGION ................................................................................................................ 36
KANDAHAR PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 36
HILMAND PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 36
URUZGAN PROVINCE ........................................................................................................... 36
ZABUL PROVINCE ................................................................................................................. 37
DAY KUNDI PROVINCE......................................................................................................... 37
WESTERN REGION................................................................................................................... 38
HIRAT PROVINCE .................................................................................................................. 38
FARAH PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 38
NIMROZ PROVINCE............................................................................................................... 39
GHOR PROVINCE .................................................................................................................. 39
BADGHIS PROVINCE............................................................................................................. 39
3.
2
METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................. 40
MAPS
Map 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by province) ......................................2
Map 2: Expected opium poppy cultivation level (by province)....................................................3
Map 3: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by district).........................................4
Map 4: Regional grouping of provinces for opium poppy survey in Afghanistan ..........................5
Map 5: Calendar of opium poppy planting in 2009 ..................................................................20
Map 6: Expected opium poppy flowering time in 2009 ............................................................21
Map 7: Expected opium poppy harvest time in 2009................................................................22
Map 8: Dry opium prices ($) .................................................................................................23
Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages..........................................................................24
Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation.......................................................................25
PREFACE
This has been a hard winter for the people of Afghanistan. Last year’s drought and a food crisis have
added increased hardship to regions grappling with poverty and plagued by insecurity. Concerns for
personal safety have been compounded by concerns for food security and social protection.
A positive development is that opium cultivation is down, at least when measured in physical terms
(hectares and tonnes). The 18 provinces that were opium-free in 2008 are likely to remain that way in
2009, and four others (Badakhshan, Baghlan, Faryab and Hirat) could join them with timely poppy
elimination this spring. This will deepen the trend of the past few years that showed opium cultivation
overwhelmingly concentrated in the seven most unstable provinces in the south and south west. Even in
major poppy growing provinces like Hilmand, UNODC expects some decrease in opium cultivation in
2009.
In the north, centre, and east of the country, pressure from government authorities, scarcity of food grains,
an effective pre-planting information campaign as well as higher prices for licit crops seem to have
contributed to the decline. To consolidate these gains – particularly during these times of food shortages
and economic hardship – provinces and districts that have rid themselves of opium deserve more support.
The Good Performance Initiative deserves further encouragement in order to stimulate the process.
In the south and south-west, reduced opium cultivation is due to high wheat prices, low opium prices, and
low availability of water due to severe drought. The effective implementation of the Provincial CounterNarcotics Strategy in Hilmand shows what strong leadership can achieve, even against the odds. Further
development assistance and the engagement of all stakeholders can turn drug zones into “Food Zones”,
and make southern Afghanistan once again the country’s bread-basket instead of the world’s biggest
source of illicit drugs.
Despite the anticipated reduction in the opium crop, prices continue to fall (by around 20%). This can be
attributed to the massive glut on the opium market due to major overproduction during the past three
years.
Nevertheless, the drugs trade remains a major source of revenue for anti-government forces and organized
crime operating in and around Afghanistan. Drug money is also a lubricant for corruption that
contaminates power. While more attention must be devoted to law enforcement (destroying drug labs,
markets, and convoys, and tightening border controls), the flow of drug money into private hands and
public pockets has to be stopped (by fighting corruption, cutting the flow of laundered money, and seizing
the assets of crime). Furthermore, because of its cross-cutting nature, counter-narcotics must be integrated
into the wider process of state building and economic development.
The opium trend is going in the right direction, but there must be long term structural changes: to eradicate
poverty, not just poppies; to root out corruption, not just illicit crops; and to strengthen human security in
the process of reducing the threat posed by drugs and crime. Progress depends on more than reducing the
amount of opium hectarage: it depends on improving security, integrity, economic growth, and
governance. We must concentrate on winning long-term campaigns, not just short-term battles.
In the past century, several countries have managed to reverse an opium epidemic. Afghanistan can do the
same. It will take time, leadership, and resources, but these are all worthy investments to improve the
health, security, and development of Afghanistan, and reduce the impact that its opium has on the rest of
the world.
Antonio Maria Costa
Executive Director
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
1.
FINDINGS
1.1.
GENERAL FINDINGS
Opium poppy cultivation trends
The 2009 Opium Winter Rapid Assessment is based on a small sample of villages and the results
are meant to be indicative. The main findings are summarised below (see also Table 1):
Following the 19 % reduction in opium cultivation in 2008 (157,000 ha), the 2009 Opium Winter
Rapid Assessment (ORA) anticipates a further decrease in opium cultivation.
•
There are no provinces which are likely to show an increase in opium cultivation.
•
The eighteen provinces reported to be poppy-free in 2008, are likely to remain poppyfree in 2009. ORA results indicate that fourteen are confirmed as likely to remain poppyfree while the other four provinces, Nangarhar Ghor, Samangan, and Sari Pul, could not
yet be ascertained. Nangarhar is likely to be almost poppy free but more data is needed for
confirmation. The results for Ghor, Samangan and Sari Pul provinces could not be
assessed since cultivation in these provinces takes place during the spring season
(March/April).
•
A strong decrease in opium cultivation is expected in Baghlan and Hirat provinces and
opium elimination activities can make these provinces poppy-free.
•
A decrease in opium cultivation is expected in seven provinces: Badakhshan, Badghis,
Faryab, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar and Laghman. Badakhshan and Faryab provinces have the
potential to become poppy-free if opium cultivation in spring is controlled. The level of
opium cultivation in other provinces will remain significantly low.
•
The seven provinces in the south and south-west region (Day Kundi, Farah, Hilmand,
Kandahar, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul) which accounted for 98% of Afghanistan’s opium
cultivation in 2008, are likely to show a decrease in 2009. It is expected that this region
will still remain the most significant with over 90% cultivation in Afghanistan.
•
Overall, the cultivation of opium in Afghanistan is likely to decrease in 2009 and the
number of poppy-free provinces may increase to twenty-two if timely and appropriate
poppy eradication measures are implemented in Baghlan, Hirat, Badakhshan and Faryab
provinces.
Table 1 Opium cultivation trends at glance
Cultivation trend in
2009
Poppy free
No. of
provinces
14
Provinces
Comments
These provinces were poppy free in 2008.
Uncertain
4
Balkh, Bamyan, Ghazni, Jawzjan,
Khost, Kunduz, Logar, Nuristan,
Paktika, Paktya, Panjshir, Parwan,
Takhar, Wardak
Ghor, Nangarhar, Samangan, Sari Pul
Strong decrease
(reaching very low
level of opium
cultivation)
Decrease
(reaching low level of
opium cultivation)
Decrease
(Maintaining high
level of opium
cultivation)
2
Baghlan, Hirat
7
Badakhshan, Badghis, Faryab, Kabul,
Kapisa, Kunar, Laghman
7
Day Kundi, Farah, Hilmand, Kandahar,
Nimroz, Uruzgan, Zabul
Too early to assess the opium cultivation
that may happen in spring (Mar/Apr).
These provinces can become poppy free if
timely eradication activities are
implemented.
Badakhshan and Faryab provinces can
become poppy free if the spring opium
cultivation is controlled
Over 90 per cent of opium cultivation likely
to be from these 7 provinces.
1
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by province)
2
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 2: Expected opium poppy cultivation level (by province)
3
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 3: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (by district)
4
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 4: Regional grouping of provinces for opium poppy survey in Afghanistan
5
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Table 2 Opium cultivation trends in 2009 (by province)
Region
Central
Eastern
Northern
Northeastern
Southern
Western
Total
(Rounded)
6
PROVINCE
Ghazni
Kabul
Khost
Logar
Paktika
Paktya
Panjshir
Parwan
Wardak
Kapisa
Kunar
Laghman
Nangarhar
Nuristan
Baghlan
Balkh
Bamyan
Faryab
Jawzjan
Samangan
Sari Pul
Badakhshan
Kunduz
Takhar
Day kundi
Hilmand
Kandahar
Uruzgan
Zabul
Badghis
Farah
Ghor
Hirat
Nimroz
Estimated
opium
cultivation
in 2008 (ha)
Poppy free
310
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
436
290
425
Poppy free
Poppy free
475
Poppy free
Poppy free
291
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
200
Poppy free
Poppy free
2,273
103,590
14,623
9,939
2,335
587
15,010
Poppy free
266
6,203
157,000 ha
2009 Expected
Expected opium
opium
cultivation levels
cultivation
change
Poppy free
Poppy free
Decrease
Low
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Decrease
Low
Decrease
Low
Decrease
Low
Uncertain
Insignificant
Poppy free
Poppy free
Strong decrease
Low
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Decrease
Low
Poppy free
Poppy free
Uncertain
Insignificant
Uncertain
Insignificant
Decrease
Insignificant
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Decrease
Moderate
Decrease
Very high
Decrease
High
Decrease
High
Decrease
High
Decrease
Low
Decrease
High
Uncertain
Insignificant
Strong decrease
Low
Decrease
High
Overall Decrease
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
ORA surveyor with the farmer in Eastern region (ORA 2009)
Wheat field in Kunduz province of North-eastern region (ORA 2009)
7
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Key highlights of ORA
The 2009 ORA highlights the following key cultivation trends as compared to 2008:
•
Central region: the entire central region can become poppy-free if opium cultivation in
Surobi district of Kabul province is eliminated.
•
Eastern region: Opium cultivation in eastern region may be drastically reduced. The
cultivation level in Kunar and Laghman provinces is lower as compared to 2008 results,
and restricted to mountainous regions. Opium cultivation in Nangarhar province is reported
to be of insignificant level and is confined to remote areas of Achin, Goshta, Hisarak,
Khogyani, Kot,Lal Pur, Nazyan, Pachir Wa Agam, and Sherzad district.
•
Western region: There is a likely to be decrease in opium cultivation in Nimroz (Khash
Rod district) and Farah province. Together these two provinces contributed over 21,000 ha
of opium cultivation in 2008. Ghor province may still remain poppy-free though the
assessment will have to be done after the cultivation season which starts in late
March/April.
•
North-east region: Badakhshan is the only province in north-eastern region where opium
has traditionally been cultivated. Assessment of this province will also be done after spring
(March/ April) 2009.
•
Southern region: ORA in southern region shows a significant reduction in opium
cultivation, even though it would still remain the largest opium producing region. Hilmand
province is expected to retain its status of the largest opium cultivating province.
•
Northern region: The region will become poppy free if opium cultivation in Faryab,
Baghlan, Samangan and Sari Pul provinces is prevented during spring 2009.
Although opium is cultivated in remote areas of Nangarhar province, even if at an insignificant
level, effective eradication efforts can render it a poppy – free province. Nangarhar has always been
a volatile province and after many years of cultivation, reaching over 18,000 ha, it finally became
poppy-free in 2008.
Balkh is likely to remain poppy-free for the third year consecutively in 2009. In 2005 and 2006,
Balkh merged as the only major opium cultivating province in the northern region, but became
poppy-free in 2007.
Farah and Nimroz (Khash Rod district) remain important poppy-growing provinces in the western
region, although the severe drought in 2008 negatively impacted on the overall cultivation level.
Hilmand province has been the largest opium cultivating province since 2004 and it is likely to
remain so in 2009. It is expected that the cultivation level will be reduced in Himland, due to lower
prices for opium as a result of a lower demand.
Due to the drought in 2008, the availaibility of water in irrigated areas is extremely poor throughout
Afghanistan. This may be one of the prominent reasons for low levels of opium cultivation during
the fall season (low altitude irrigated areas). Scarcity of irrigation water in the early stage of crop
may also result in low opium poppy yields in 2009. The quality of opium crop in high altitude rainfed areas of northern Afghanistan will depend on the availability of rains during the upcoming
spring season.
Although the Government and international stakeholders remain committed to eradication, no
Governor-led eradication activity had been initiated in any part of the country by the time this
Rapid Assessment was completed in mid-January 2008. However, few farmers have eradicated
their opium fields in Kapisa, Day Kundi and Nangarhar provinces due to the pressure from
Government authorities.
8
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Surveyor interviewing village headman in Mihtarlam district of Laghman Province (ORA 2009)
Growth stage of poppy in Laskargah district of Hilmand province in December 2009 (ORA2009)
9
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
1.2.
DRIVING FORCES BEHIND OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS IN 2009
During the 2009 ORA, village headmen from poppy-growing and non-poppy growing villages were
asked to state the reason that predominantly drove the farmers to cultivate opium instead of other
crops or to not cultivate it at all.
Reasons for opium cultivation in 2009
“Higher sale price of poppy as compared to other crops” was the dominant reason (53%) for
growing opium poppy. Although the opium price continues to decrease, its level is still higher than
other crops and for some farmers, opium continues to be a more lucrative investment than other
crops. About one third of respondents also cited ‘poverty alleviation’ as the most dominant reason.
Interestingly, 7% of the responses for growing opium poppy was the “lack of governmental
control”. While it is among the lowest response, it is still significant as a reason.
Figure 1Reasons for opium cultivation in 2009 in opium growing villages
53%
High sale price of opium
32%
Poverty alleviation
8%
Other
Lack of government control
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2009
Reasons reported by headmen for not cultivating opium differed between the southern-western
region and the rest of the country.
The dominant reasons for not growing poppy in the south and western region are the high sale price
of wheat and the fact that opium is against Islam. Pressure from Government authorities and low
income from poppy were also mentioned, but by fewer headmen. About a quarter of the overall
response indicate the weather or the drought as one of the reasons for not cultivating opium.
10
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Figure 2 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2009 (southern and western region)
22%
High sale price of wheat
21%
Against Islam
Pressure from
Government authorities
16%
15%
Low income from opium
Percent
Unsuitable climatic
condition
14%
Drought
Elders and Shura decision
Other
0%
7%
3%
2%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Note: 98 per cent of the total poppy of Afghanistan was cultivated in this region in 2008
The dominant reason for not growing poppy in the rest of the country (provinces outside the
southern and south-western region) is the pressure from the Government authorities as cited by
over half of the respondents. Feedback received from surveyors and provincial coordinators also
highlighted the scarcity of food grains as one of the reasons for not cultivate opium. Inadequate
irrigation water due to severe drought prevailing from 2008 was mentioned as one of the reasons
for not cultivating opium in the different parts of the country (Figure 2 and Figure 3). However, it
seems that the drought may have adversely affected the fall season opium cultivation more in the
south-west than in other regions.
11
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Figure 3 Reasons for not cultivating opium in 2009 (provinces other than in southern and
south-western region)
Pressure from Government
authorities
52%
Against Islam
15%
Low income from opium
10%
Drought
7%
Other
7%
Elders and Shura decision
6%
Unsuitable climatic condition
High sale price of wheat
3%
0.4%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Note: Only 2 per cent of the total poppy of Afghanistan was cultivated in this region in 2008
Driving forces behind reduced level of opium cultivation by region
Central region
Low level of opium cultivation in the central region is attributed to unfavourable climatic
condition in most of the provinces (Ghazni, Wardak, Paktika, Panjshir, Parwan, Logar and
Paktya).
The weather in Khost province is favourable for opium cultivation, however, the presence
of legitimate governance and its cooperation with Shura leaders is the driving force behind
the opium free status of the province. Opium cultivation in Surobi district of Kabul
province is linked with the dominance of insurgent groups.
The provinces in the central region are smaller in size and accessible to aid agencies. This
has allowed alternative development programs which are visible in rural areas.
This region will remain a low opium cultivating one due to the limitations of climatic and
terrain conditions and in the focus group discussions a mention was also made to its
vicinity to urban centres that provide off-farm employment opportunities.
Eastern region
Farmers in this region are reportedly suffering from poverty and hunger due to
unemployment and poor income from agriculture in 2008.
Poppy cultivation has almost been eliminated from Nangarhar province due to several
factors like pressure by Government authorities, fear of eradication, effective pre–planting
campaign, low price of opium and high price of food grains. Low cultivation in Kunar and
12
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Laghman provinces is attributed to pressure by Government authorities, high prices of food
grains and low prices of opium.
Farmers felt that alternative development activities benefit specific areas and do not reach
the grass-root level. Thus, it is difficult to assess the impact of these development activities
on the current opium cultivation trend. Farmers in Nangarhar province (especially in the
districts where tribes stand firmly united) may bounce back with opium cultivation in
coming years if development efforts do not reach the grass-root level. Debriefing of
surveyors and UNODC provincial coordinators showed that farmers are willing to comply
with the government policies and its counter narcotic activities when they see that
development activities are carried out in their province.
Northern region
Many headmen reported that farmers were discouraged from planting opium because of
the pressure from the government. The presence of the legitimate governance maintains
favourable security conditions to implement counter narcotic policies. Another driving
factor is the severe drought prevailing in 2008 that raised the prices of essential
commodities.
Alternative development activities are focussed in and around province and district centres
and therefore, the benefit of these activities does not reach the villages away from the
centre. This indicates that these development activities are not the driving forces
responsible for low level of opium cultivation.
The status of low opium cultivation can be maintained in this region if agricultural
assistance programs are provided to the farmers throughout the region.
North-eastern region
Low opium cultivation in this region can be attributed to the presence of legitimate
governance, low prices of opium, high prices of food grains and demand for cereal crops
(due to the crop failure because of the drought).
In Badakhshan, alternative development activities seem to have minimal impact on the life
of farmers, which makes it difficult to assess the overall impact of these activities on opium
cultivation.
Farmers in Badakhshan may bounce back to opium cultivation if government fails to
deliver promises made to farmers for alternative development activities. Badakhshan is a
traditional opium cultivating province and cultivation was significantly high until 2006.
Southern region
Although the southern region remains the largest opium cultivation area, the lower prices
of opium in 2009 will see a reduction of cultivation. High prices of food grains and low
prices of opium make opium a less attractive crop than in previous years. Fear of
eradication and scarcity of water in the districts affected by drought will also contribute to
reduced opium cultivation in this region.
Farmers in this region have been offered support in agriculture, such as improved seeds and
fertilizers. Various projects are being implemented like construction of roads, culverts,
flood prevention dykes, irrigation canals, cleaning of canals, electricity supplies etc.
However, it is difficult to assess the impact of these development activities on poppy
cultivation, because in general farmers do not participate in government initiatives.
The reduced level of opium cultivation may remain stable in the coming years if opium
prices remain low and counter narcotic measures are effectively implemented. Farmers
may bounce back with high opium cultivation if opium prices rise and current insecurity
situation prevails.
13
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Western region
The dominant reasons for the reduced level of opium in 2009 are the drought prevailing
from 2008 and the low opium prices which are the result of a lower demand for opium.
Nimroz and Farah provinces, where poppy cultivation is normally high, are severely
affected by the drought and during the current cultivation season there is insufficient
irrigation water.
Although alternative development activities are ongoing in certain areas, their visible
impact on the opium cultivation can not be assessed at this stage.
If opium prices increase in the near future and the socio-political situation remains
unfavourable, there is the risk that this region will bounce back to high opium cultivation in
coming years.
1.3.
NUMBER OF VILLAGES GROWING OPIUM POPPY
Of the 484 villages visited, 130 (27 %) reported that they expect to grow opium poppy in 2009. The
percentage of poppy-growing villages among those visited varies from region to region. In the
southern region, 71 per cent of the surveyed villages reported poppy cultivation in 2009. During
ORA 2008, 85% of the villages in southern region reported opium cultivation. Similar trend is
also noticed in north-eastern region.
Table 3 Proportion of poppy-growing villages
Region
Central
Eastern
North-eastern
Northern
Southern
Western
Total
1.4.
% of villages surveyed (ORA 2009)
Non-poppy
Poppy
growing
growing
99%
1%
91%
9%
97%
3%
96%
4%
29%
71%
65%
35%
73%
27%
% of villages surveyed (ORA 2008)
Poppy
Non-poppy growing
growing
99%
1%
92%
8%
76%
24%
87%
13%
15%
85%
63%
37%
68%
32%
CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR POPPY CULTIVATION
Respondents in Day Kundi, Hilmand, Badghis and Nimroz reported that they had received cash
advances from external sources to grow opium poppy. The ORA 2009 indicates that 18 % (29 % in
ORA 2008) of the surveyed opium poppy-growing villages received such advances.
1.5.
AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE
Of the 484 villages visited, 125 have received agricultural assistance (26 %) in the form of seed,
fertilizers and irrigation facilities. 81 % of villages that have received agricultural assistance do not
cultivate poppy, which suggests that agricultural assistance has a direct effect on the extent of
opium poppy cultivation.
An analysis of the link between agricultural assistance and poppy cultivation by region appears to
confirm that villages that have not received assistance are more likely to cultivate opium poppy.
14
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
The exception is the southern region where 66% of villages cultivate opium poppy despite
receiving agricultural assistance. The corresponding figure for the western region is 30%; while in
rest of the regions, fewer villages that received agricultural assistance intend to grow poppy.
Table 4 Agricultural assistance vis-à-vis opium cultivation
Region
Agricultural
assistance
received
Central
Eastern
North-eastern
Northern
Southern
Western
1.6.
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
No. of villages surveyed
No opium
Opium
poppy
poppy
cultivation
cultivation
70
11
42
19
30
7
31
47
25
10
55
7
1
5
1
1
2
1
67
19
30
3
Total no.
of villages
surveyed
% of villages
cultivating poppy
despite having
received agricultural
assistance
71
11
47
20
31
7
33
48
92
29
85
10
0%
5%
0%
2%
66%
30%
FIELD SECURITY DURING ORA IMPLEMENTATION
The security situation seems to be deteriorating each year and more difficulties were faced during
the implementation of ORA 2009 when compared to previous years. The presence of antigovernment elements (AGE) in the central region (Wardak, Ghazni, Logar, Paktika) made it
difficult for surveyors to carry survey equipments such as GPS and digital cameras. Although
security in Khost, Paktya, Kapisa (except Tagab district), Kabul (except Surobi district) is good,
main roads are not safe as AGEs block the roads during the night to search for people linked to the
Government. Security was a general concern in most areas in the southern region (Hilmand,
Uruzgan, and Kandahar). In the western region, Nimroz and Farah provinces had poor security
conditions.
The survey indicates that approximately 60 per cent of villages with ‘poor’ security and 51 per cent
of those with ‘very poor’ security are involved in poppy cultivation, as compared to only 12% and
4% of villages with ‘good’ and ‘very good’ security.
Table 5 Security situation vis-à-vis opium cultivation
Security situation
Very poor
Poor
Good
Very good
No. of villages surveyed
No opium
Opium
poppy
poppy
cultivation
cultivation
43
40
166
105
44
60
22
4
% of villages
cultivating opium
poppy
51%
60%
12%
4%
15
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
1.7.
ERADICATION AND NON-CULTIVATION OF OPIUM
Of the 484 villages surveyed during the ORA, 130 have planted opium poppy for the 2009
cultivation season. 23 villages of these 130 faced opium eradication in 2008. Of these, 48% (11
villages) have planted opium poppy despite having experienced eradication activities in 2008.
Table 6 Eradication in 2008 vis-à-vis opium cultivation in 2009
No. of villages surveyed
No opium
Opium
poppy
poppy
cultivation
cultivation
Eradication in 2008
No*
Yes
339
12
119
11
% of villages
26%
48%
*This also contains villages that have never grown poppy
An awareness campaign to prevent poppy cultivation was conducted in many areas of Afghanistan
in October and November 2008. Of the 146 surveyed villages targeted for the campaign, only 49
(34%t) are cultivating poppy.
Table 7 Awareness campaign vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2008
Awareness
campaign
No*
Yes
No. of villages surveyed
No opium poppy Opium poppy
cultivation
cultivation
256
97
81
49
% villages
24%
34%
*This also contains villages that have never grown poppy
Regional results indicate that the awareness campaign had some impact in the central and northern
regions with mixed success rate in the eastern region. In the southern and western region, the
campaign had little impact on opium cultivation.
16
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Table 8 Awareness campaign vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2008 (by region)
REGION
Awareness
campaign
Central
Eastern
North-eastern
Northern
Southern
Western
1.8.
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
No. of villages surveyed
No opium
Opium poppy
poppy
cultivation
cultivation
68
13
24
37
34
3
57
20
24
11
49
13
% of villages
cultivating opium
poppy after
campaign
1
7%
6
1
14%
0%
1
2
56
30
23
10
9%
68%
43%
PRICES
UNODC collects monthly opium prices from 15 key provinces. In addition to this, the ORA 2009
collected price information in 484 surveyed villages. The average farm-gate prices of dry opium at
the time of the survey were in line with the monthly price report in December 2008. The detailed
overview of opium prices is provided based on Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan,
December 2008.
Graph 1: Regional average price of dry opium collected from traders, January 2005 –
December 2008 (Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December
2008)
350
300
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Price in (USD/Kg)
250
Month
Eastern
Southern
Western
North-eastern
Northern
17
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
222
Graph 2: Average farm-gate prices for dry opium (USD/kg) (Source: UNODC Monthly Opium
Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2008)
91
100
91
90
85
85
88
88
83
86
105
100
101
105
108
106
105
103
98
113
114
115
125
128
127
121
134
141
140
140
141
139
136
133
152
145
150
149
159
145
167
171
137
161
161
123
Price in (USD/Kg)
139
150
147
154
170
180
187
200
50
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
0
Month
Since June 2007, prices of dry opium in the Western and Eastern Regions remain higher than the
prices in other regions. Increase in prices in the Western Region can be attributed to its strategic
position in bordering Iran. In the last few months, prices in Southern and Northern region are
becoming lower than in other regions. Lower prices in Southern region can be explained by the
availability of opium stocks with the farmers and drug dealers, a result of bumper opium production
in 2007 and 2008.
Fresh opium prices at farm gate level were well above USD 100/kg until early 2007. Later, prices
decreased drastically. The average price in November 2008 (USD 55/kg) is the lowest price ever
recorded since UNODC started the price monitoring in Afghanistan. Fresh opium prices in 2006
were almost double that of the prices recorded in 2008. A similar trend can be observed for price of
fresh opium at the trader level.
The trend of converging opium prices across regions within Afghanistan could be an indication of
greater integration among the local markets, but further studies are needed in order to better
understand the dynamics of the internal market.
18
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Farmers in Afghanistan usually cultivate crops twice a year in irrigated areas, typically growing
maize, rice, vegetables or cotton after harvesting opium poppy or wheat. Some farmers grow
cannabis after the first summer harvest. None of Afghanistan’s licit agricultural products can
currently match the income per hectare from opium poppy, although difference between prices of
licit and illicit products has narrowed down since 2008.
During ORA, respondents were asked the market prices of agricultural commodities. Comparison
of prices collected during ORA 2008 and ORA 2009 shows significant decrease in prices of opium
and substantial increase in prices of food grains.
Table 9 Prices of opium and food grains in 2009 and 2008
Crop name
Dry opium
Fresh opium
Wheat
Rice
Maize
1.9.
Prices (USD per Kg)
ORA 2009 ORA 2008
112.87
85.16
80.44
61.74
0.40
0.60
0.89
1.12
0.28
0.42
% difference
-25%
-23%
49%
26%
48%
OTHER FINDINGS
•
Poppy cultivation vis-à-vis cropping intensity (number of crops per year): It is observed
that 69%of the poppy-growing villages grow two crops in a year; the other poppy growing
villages grow a single crop in a year.
•
Bribe to avoid eradication: Respondents in Hilmand, Uruzgan and Day Kundi provinces
reported cases of avoiding opium eradication by offering gifts or bribe to the eradication
teams.
•
Security situation vis-à-vis poppy cultivation: Opium is cultivated in more than 50 per cent
of the villages where security condition is poor. On the other hand, about 90% of the
villages with good security do not cultivate opium.
•
Taxes (usher) for poppy cultivation: Respondents were asked whether they paid taxes
(usher) to anti-Government elements. 97 % of respondents in the southern region and 52%
of those in the western region replied that they indeed pay usher to several elements.
Respondents in the eastern, central, northern and north-eastern regions reported that they do
not pay such taxes.
19
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 5: Calendar of opium poppy planting in 2009
20
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 6: Expected opium poppy flowering time in 2009
21
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 7: Expected opium poppy harvest time in 2009
22
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 8: Dry opium prices ($)
23
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 9: Sampling frame and selected villages
24
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Map 10: Cultivation trend vs. security situation
25
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
2. Findings by province
NORTH-EASTERN REGION
BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE
Interviews with the selected village headmen indicated that cultivation level in 2009 is insignificant
as a result of effective information campaigns against opium cultivation and extensive eradication
in 2008. In 2008, opium poppy cultivation in Badakhshan decreased by 95%. It is expected to
further in the main opium cultivation areas, namely the Baharak, Faizabad, Jurm and Khash
districts. While there could be a slight increase in Argo, Darayim, Teshkan and Kishm districts, the
extent of cultivation should be less than that of last year. The situation will be clearer during the
upcoming spring cultivation season (March/April 2009).
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
200
Irrigated and rain-fed
Decrease
Insignificant
Autumn/spring
End of June
Good
TAKHAR PROVINCE
Respondents in all districts reported no change in opium poppy cultivation in 2009 and it is
expected that Takhar remains poppy-free in 2009. Although this province will probably continue to
lie on a major trafficking route to Tajikistan (via the Chah Ab, Yangi Qala, Darqad and Rustaq
districts).
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
26
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Poppy free
Poppy free
Autumn/spring
Mid-June
Very good
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
KUNDUZ PROVINCE
Respondents across all districts reported no change in opium poppy cultivation in 2009 and it is
likely that it will remain poppy-free.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Poppy free
Poppy free
Autumn
Mid-May
Good
27
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
EASTERN REGION
NANGARHAR PROVINCE
Although there is opium cultivation in remote areas of Nangarhar province, the cultivation level
seems to be insignificant. The province can once again remain poppy-free with effective
eradication efforts.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated
Uncertain
Insignificant
Autumn
Mid-April
Good
KUNAR PROVINCE
Opium poppy cultivation in 2009 is expected to further decrease as it did in 2008. Low cultivation
in Kunar province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to high prices of food grains
and low prices of opium. Main opium poppy growing districts in Kunar are Asadabad, Barkunar,
Nari, Sirkanay and Chawkay.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
290
Irrigated and rain-fed
Decrease
Low
Autumn
Mid-April
Poor
LAGHMAN PROVINCE
Opium poppy cultivation in Laghman province is expected to decrease and remain at low levels in
2009. Low cultivation in Laghman province is attributed to pressure by the Governor as well as to
high prices of food grains and low prices of opium. In 2008, Alishing, Qarghayi, Mihtarlam and
Alingar were the main poppy-cultivating districts.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
28
425
Irrigated and rain-fed
Decrease
Low
Autumn
Beginning of April
Poor
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
NURISTAN PROVINCE
Nuristan is located at a high elevation and is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 like in 2008.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Poppy free
Poppy free
Autumn
Beginning of April
Very Poor
KAPISA PROVINCE
There was 48% decrease in opium poppy cultivation in 2008 as compared to 2007 in Kapisa
province. Further decrease in opium poppy cultivation is expected in 2009.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
436
Irrigated
Decrease
Low
Autumn/spring
Late May / early July
Good
29
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
NORTHERN REGION
BAGHLAN PROVINCE
Opium poppy cultivation in Baghlan province will probably continue to remain low in 2009. The
province could become poppy-free if spring opium cultivation is prevented. Opium poppy
cultivation in Baghlan province decreased by 29% in 2008, as compared to 2007.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
475
Irrigated and rain-fed
Strong decrease
Low
Autumn/spring
End of May to mid-June
Good
BAMYAN PROVINCE
Bamyan province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 like in 2008.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Poppy free
Poppy free
Spring
Late July
Good
BALKH PROVINCE
Bamyan province is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 like in 2008 and 2007. This trend may
be attributed to successful campaigns by the Government against poppy cultivation.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
30
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Poppy free
Poppy free
Autumn
End of April
Good
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
FARYAB PROVINCE
There was a significant reduction (90%) in opium poppy cultivation in Faryab province in 2008. In
2009, further decrease in poppy cultivation is expected. The main opium poppy growing districts
in 2008 were Bilchiragh, Qaisar, Kohistan and Maymana.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
291
Irrigated and rain-fed
Decrease
Low
Autumn
Mid-May
Poor
JAWZJAN PROVINCE
Jawzjan province was not a significant opium poppy-growing area until 2002. From 2002 to 2006,
however, cultivation increased sharply. In 2008, cultivation decreased by 100 per cent, and it is
expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 as well.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Poppy free
Poppy free
Autumn and spring
Late May
Very good
SAMANGAN PROVINCE
Samangan province was poppy-free in 2007 and 2008; the trend in 2009 remains uncertain due to
spring cultivation.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Rain-fed and irrigated
Uncertain (Likely to be
poppy free)
Insignificant
Spring
End of July
Very good
31
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
SARI PUL PROVINCE
Sari Pul province was poppy-free in 2008. The trend in 2009 remains uncertain due to the spring
cultivation.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
32
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Uncertain(Likely to be
poppy free)
Insignificant
Spring
Late June
Good
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
CENTRAL REGION
GHAZNI PROVINCE
Ghazni province has been poppy-free since 2005. ORA results suggest that the province will
remain poppy-free in 2009 as well.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated
Poppy free
Poppy free
Spring
Late July
Very poor
KHOST PROVINCE
Khost province has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009 as
well.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrgiated
Poppy free
Poppy free
Spring
Late May
Good
LOGAR PROVINCE
Logar province has been poppy-free since 2005 and it is expected to remain poppy-free in 2009,
although, according to the UNDSS the security situation has changed from ‘very good’ in 2008 to
‘poor’ in 2009.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated
Poppy free
Poppy free
Spring/autumn
May/June
Poor
33
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
PAKTIKA PROVINCE
Paktika province has been poppy-free since 2004 and the same trend is expected to continue in
2009.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated and rain-fed
Poppy free
Poppy free
Spring
June
Poor
PAKTYA PROVINCE
Paktya province has been poppy-free since 2005 and the same trend is expected to continue in
2009.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated
Poppy free
Poppy free
Spring
June
Good
PARWAN PROVINCE
Parwan has been poppy-free since 2007 and it is expected to stay poppy free in 2009 as well.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
34
0
Irrigate
Poppy free
Poppy free
Spring
Late June
Good
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
PANJSHIR PROVINCE
Panjshir province has always been poppy-free and it is expected to maintain the same status in
2009.
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated
Poppy free
Poppy free
Atumn
May
Very good
WARDAK PROVINCE
Wardak has been poppy-free since 2006 and it is expected to remain so in 2009.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated
Poppy free
Poppy free
Autumn/spring
Late May/early July
Poor
KABUL PROVINCE
There was 38% reduction in opium cultivation in Kabul province in 2008. The cultivation in 2009
remains low and is expected to decrease further. There is only one district, namely Sarobi, where
opium is cultivated.
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
310
Irrigated
Decrease
Low
Autumn
Late May
Very good
35
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
SOUTHERN REGION
KANDAHAR PROVINCE
There was a slight reduction in opium poppy cultivation in Kandahar province in 2008 (12%). In
2009, cultivation level is expected to decrease further due to the low price of opium, high prices of
food commodities, fear of eradication and scarcity of water in some of the districts affected by the
drought. The main opium poppy cultivation districts in 2008 were Arghandab, Arghistan, Daman,
Ghorak, Kandahar (Dand), Khakrez, Maruf, Maywand, Miya Nishin, Nesh, Shah Walikot, Spin
Boldak and Zhari.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
14,623
Irrigated
Decrease
High
Autumn
Beginning of May
Poor
HILMAND PROVINCE
Cultivation level remained unchanged in 2008 at around 103,590 ha as compared to 2007 (102,770
ha) when it accounted for 66% of the total cultivation in Afghanistan. In 2009, cultivation level is
expected to decrease due to the low price of opium. Fear of eradication and scarcity of water in
some of the districts affected by drought also contributes to this reduction. The main opium poppy
cultivation districts in 2008 were Nad Ali, Naway-i-Barakzayi, Nahri, Sarraj, Garmser (Hazarjuft),
Musa Qala, Sangin, Dishu, Washer, Nawzad, Lashkar Gah and Kajaki.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
103,590
Irrigated
Decrease
Very high
Autumn
Beginning of May
Very poor
URUZGAN PROVINCE
Uruzgan has traditionally been one of Afghanistan’s major opium poppy-growing provinces.
Opium cultivation increased slightly in 2008 from 9,204 ha in 2007 to 9,939 ha. In 2009 cultivation
is expected to decrease due to the low price of opium, fear of eradication and scarcity of water in
some of the districts affected by the drought.
36
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
9,939
Irrigated
Decrease
High
Autumn
Mid-May
Very poor
ZABUL PROVINCE
In 2008 there was an increase of 45% in opium poppy cultivation in Zabul province; however it is
expected to decrease in 2009. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2008 were Day Chopan,
Qalat, Shahjoy, Tarnak wa Jaldak, Shinkay, Shamulzayi, Naw Bahar, Mizan, Kakar (Khak-eAfghan) and Arghandab.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
2,335
Irrigated
Decrease
High
Autumn
Mid-May
Very poor
DAY KUNDI PROVINCE
In 2008 Day Kundi experienced an increase of 32% in opium poppy cultivation; however it is
expected to decrease in 2009. The main opium poppy growing districts in 2008 were Gizab,
Ishtarlay, Kijran, Khadir, Kiti, Miramor, Nili and Sharistan.
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
2,273
Irrigated
Decrease
Moderate
Spring
July
Very Poor
37
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
WESTERN REGION
HIRAT PROVINCE
In 2008 there was a significant decrease in opium poppy cultivation in Hirat province (83%). In
2009, a strong decrease is expected in opium cultivation in all the major opium growing districts
namely Shindand, Kushk and Adraskan. The level of opium cultivation should continue to remain
low in 2009 and it could become poppy-free if effective poppy elimination measures are
implemented.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
266
Irrigated
Strong decrease
Low
Autumn/spring
Late May/late June
Good
FARAH PROVINCE
Opium poppy cultivation remained stable in 2008 (15,010 ha) compared to 2007 (14,865 ha). In
2009, opium cultivation is expected to decrease in all the opium growing districts namely Gulistan,
Bakwa, Pusht Rod, Bala Buluk, Farah, Khaki Safed, Pur Chaman, Qalay-I-Kah, Shib Koh, Anar
Dara and Lash Wa Jauwayn. Low price of opium and the effects of the draught prevailing in 2008
are the main reason for reduced level of opium cultivation.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
38
15,010
Irrigated
Decrease
High
Autumn
Early May
Very Poor
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
NIMROZ PROVINCE
In 2008 there was a slight decrease of 5% in opium cultivation from 6,507 ha in 2007 to 6,203 ha.
In 2009, opium cultivation is expected to decrease in the opium growing districts namely Khash
Rod, Chahar Burja and Chakhansur. In addition to the high level of cultivation, Nimroz will
probably continue to play an important role in trafficking given its location at the border with Iran
and Pakistan.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
6,203
Irrigated
Decrease
High
Autumn
Mid-April
Very Poor
GHOR PROVINCE
Ghor province was poppy-free in 2008. The trend in 2009 is uncertain because the poppy
cultivation in rain-fed areas will start only in the spring. Ghor is one of the main opium-trafficking
provinces.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
0
Irrigated
Uncertain (Likely to be
poppy free)
Insignificant
Spring
Late June
Poor
BADGHIS PROVINCE
In 2008 there was a strong decrease in opium poppy cultivation (86%) compared to 2007 in
Badghis province. In 2009 a further decrease is expected in the districts of Ghormach, Qadis,
Murghab, Jawand, Ab Kamari and Muqur.
Opium poppy cultivation details:
Cultivation in 2008 (hectares)
Cultivation practices
Projected trends in 2009
Cultivation level
Planting time
Expected main harvest time
Security situation
587
Irrigated and rain-fed
Decrease
Low
Spring
Mid-June
Very poor
39
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
3. METHODOLOGY
The Winter Opium Rapid Assessment , including training and deployment, was conducted from 10
December 2008 to 10 January 2008 by 82 local field surveyors. The survey was jointly planned and
implemented by the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics (MCN) of the Government of Afghanisthan and
UNODC.
Sampling framework
A total of 492 villages in 265 districts were selected across all provinces, however only 484 villages
could be surveyed.
Opium cultivation is most widespread in the areas with altitudes below 1,500 m. Opium poppy
cultivation is also common in the higher elevations between 1,500 m to 2,500 m however it
becomes rare in the areas above 2500 m. As opium cultivation is affected by elevation, a stratified
sampling method was used to select the sample villages. The villages in the sampling frame were
divided into three groups (strata) according to their elevation:
•
•
•
Group 1: Villages located at an elevation of less than 1,500 m
Group 2: Villages located at elevations between 1,500 m and 2,500 m
Group 3: Villages located at an elevation of more than 2,500 m (not considered in sampling
frame)
Villages were selected from each group using a systematic random selection technique. The total
sampling ratio was 1.6 per cent. The design and size of the sample facilitate the establishment of
cultivation trends; the sample is not designed for calculating quantitative areas or production
estimates. In addition to the sample villages, the surveyors, using their knowledge of the local
situation, visited other areas in the province to complement their assessment both of opium poppy
cultivation trends and the security situation throughout the province.
Training of surveyors and data collection
The surveyors were selected on the basis of a written test, their experience in conducting opium
poppy surveys, knowledge of local customs and their acceptance by local communities. During the
training period, a total of nine survey coordinators and 82 surveyors were trained in the use of the
survey form and survey techniques.
The surveyors conducted structured interviews with the headmen of selected villages in all
provinces. UNODC and MCN coordinators monitored the data quality and the progress of the
survey closely.
ORA training in Nangarhar province
40
Interview of Headman in Balkh province
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
Debriefing
At the end of the survey, surveyors were debriefed by survey coordinators, reporting on their
findings in the areas they had visited and providing an assessment of various factors that influence
opium poppy cultivation. The debriefing information was also used to understand socio-political
situation; difficulties encountered in conducting the survey; the level of control exercised by
Governors over their respective provinces; the presence of anti-Government elements and the
resulting impact on opium poppy cultivation; corruption etc. Debriefing facilitates a greater
understanding of opium poppy cultivation and the socio-political situation that determines
cultivation trends, and provides useful guidance in analysing survey data.
41
Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment, January 2009
ANNEX 1: Cultivation levels from 2005 to 2008 and expected trends in 2009
PROVINCE
Cultivation
2005 (ha)
Cultivation
2006 (ha)
Cultivation
2007 (ha)
Cultivation
2008 (ha)
Ghazni
Kabul
Khost
Logar
Paktika
Paktya
Panjshir
Parwan
Wardak
Central Region
Kapisa
Kunar
Laghman
Nangarhar
Nuristan
Eastern Region
Badakhshan
Kunduz
Takhar
North-eastern
Region
Baghlan
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
106
0
115
1,059
274
1,093
1,554
4,095
7,370
275
1,364
9,009
0
80
133
0
0
0
0
124
0
337
282
932
710
4,872
1,516
8,312
13,056
102
2,178
15,336
0
500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
500
835
446
561
18,739
0
20,581
3,642
0
1,211
4,853
2,563
2,742
Balkh
Bamyan
Faryab
Jawzjan
Samangan
Sari Pul
Northern Region
Day kundi
Hilmand
Kandahar
Uruzgan
Zabul
Southern Region
Badghis
Farah
Ghor
Hirat
10,837
126
2,665
1,748
3,874
3,227
25,040
2,581
26,500
12,989
2,024
2,053
46,147
2,967
10,240
2,689
1,924
Nimroz
Western Region
Total (rounded)
42
Change
20072008 (%)
2009
Cultivation
trend
0
310
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
310
436
290
425
0
0
1,151
200
0
0
200
Change
20072008
(ha)
0
-190
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-190
-399
-156
-136
-18,739
0
-19,430
-3,442
0
-1,211
-4,653
0%
-38%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-38%
-48%
-35%
-24%
-100%
0%
-94%
-95%
0%
-100%
-96%
Poppy free
Decrease
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
Poppy free
671
475
-196
-29%
7,232
17
3,040
2,024
1,960
2,252
19,267
7,044
69,324
12,619
9,703
3,210
101,900
3,205
7,694
4,679
2,287
0
0
2,866
1,085
0
260
4,882
3,346
102,770
16,615
9,204
1,611
133,546
4,219
14,865
1,503
1,525
0
0
291
0
0
0
766
2,273
103,590
14,623
9,939
2,335
132,760
587
15,010
0
266
0
0
-2,575
-1,085
0
-260
-4,116
-1,073
820
-1,992
735
724
-786
-3,632
145
-1,503
-1,259
0%
0%
-90%
-100%
0%
-100%
-84%
-32%
1%
-12%
8%
45%
-1%
-86%
1%
-100%
-83%
Strong
decrease
Poppy free
Poppy free
Decrease
Poppy free
Uncertain
Uncertain
1,690
19,510
1,955
19,820
6,507
28,619
6,203
22,066
-304
-6,553
-5%
-23%
104,000
165,000
193,000
157,000
-36,000
-19%
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Uncertain
Poppy free
Decrease
Poppy free
Poppy free
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Uncertain
Strong
decrease
Decrease
Overall
decrease