Estimating Building Simulation Parameters via Bayesian Structure Learning

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contains
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Multivariate
Analysis,
90(1):196–212,
2004.
lations
and
⇠150
building
parameters.
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addition,
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18).
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ng P ( i | i , D) with respect to i is equivalent to tegrals,
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eters were
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minimum or
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While
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i independently
tions
for
all
variables.
merical
methods
for
computing
approximates
to
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ent.
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notabove,
a set
known
method
pproblem
there is notdistribution’s
indication
that
the–and
GGM
model
fails
to
error
rate
4.05±0.98
vs
5.07±1.01.
However,
meter
set to
original
authors
tegrals,
such
as Trapezoidal
i [16]. The
This able
results in
simulations
per
building
parameter. The method and Simpson’s Rule.
While
theindicates
other variables
are not
statistically di↵erent,
distribution
defined
in
Eq.
15, other
wecause
are
totwoestimate
✓
’s
values
exist
in
the
interval
[0,1),
which
means
i
represent
these
variables.
This
that
the
GGM
overmax
value,
while
parameters
were
set
to
their
average
value.
This
to
analytically
remove
the
hyperparameter
via
integration.
Advances
Neural1,that
Information
Systems, 18:779, 2006.
only the
error
rates
forinvariables
2, the
3, 8,
10, model
11,Processing
12,fails
13,to
ese formulations
to work with microarrays, which
MO2 data set contains
pairwise the
minimum
and maximum
1
However,
integral
over
✓
is
unbounded
from
above,
bei
there
is
not
a
clear
indication
GGM
E[
|✓
,
,
D]
using
weighted
sampling.
In
order
to
use
i toi 12,000 variables, but have very
Eq.
17 must
be transformed
to
a bounded
integral for
the
6.
DISCUSSION
containi 10,000
all is successfully
modeling
the FG building
parameters.
Inrandom guessing
combinations
across
the same building
parameter
set. required
This
means
numerical
methods
are
to
approximate
and
14
are
statistically
better
than
their
results
in
two
simulations
per
building
parameter.
The
entire
MO1
data
set
cause
✓
’s
values
exist
in
the
interval
[0,1),
which
means
i applicable.
represent
these variables.
This
indicates
that the GGM overes.
This allowed
the authors
use conventional
Usingits
themethods
FG dataand
set,
weabe
built
a GGM using Given,
250 simulaweight
sampled,
we tosample
Eq. 15 numerical
using
CDF
to
Eq
17’s
comfact
analyzing
Figures
1(a)
indicates
that
the
GGM
isolates
While
the
parameters
in
FG
and
MO2
have
well
defined
the
integral
over
the
hyperparameter.
There
are many
nu- for the
counterpart.
The othermodeling
variablesthe
areFG
notbuilding
statistically
di↵er-In
on methods to solve for i . However, the E+
Eq.
17
must
be
transformed
to
a
bounded
integral
tions
sampled
without
replacement,
and
evaluated
the
model
all
is
successfully
parameters.
plex
nature
Li’sour
[16] recommendation
to
use instances
sampling where
unifrom distribution
ontothe
interval
[0,1].
This and
means
used
build
GGM
model.
the
building
parameter’s
means very well. While the unised in this workwas
contains
several million
data vecmeans,
they
have
they
significantly
deviusing
150 test methods
simulations
simulations.
In
addition,
we
built
merical
for
computing
approximates
to
definite
inent.
1
1
numerical
methods
to E[
be applicable.
Eq
17’s
comfact analyzing
Figures
1(a)
indicates
that the GGM isolates
,MO1
wedata
elected
toresulting
use
|✓i , i , D] Given,
as
form
distribution
matches
the
mean
and
variances
(Figure
h mostly invalidates conventional optimization ap- to aapproximate
GGM
using
the
entire
set.
The
model
i
i
ate
from
their
estimated
means,
which
is not While
well the
implied
3.  Model
Order
2 (MO2):
contains
pairwise
min
and
max
combinations
across
tegrals,
such
as1 , nature
Trapezoidal
method
and
Simpson’s
Rule.
2
the
otherisparameter’s
variables
are
not very
statistically
di↵erent,
plex
and
Li’s
[16]
recommendation
to
use
sampling
building
means
well. While
the uniRather
than
using
the
fast
grafting
algorithm
is
evaluated
using
300
sampled
MO2
simulations.
our
estimates
for
which
is
the
MAP
estimate
under
a
1(b)),
it
appears
the
matching
only
possible
because
the
2
i
1
1
based
constrained
set parameter
optimization
method.
bytheresults
(Figure
1(a)
andabove,
2).were
Figure
3(a)
illustrates
that
16], A
we gradient
solve the
Lasso
regression
problems using
However,
theto
integral
over
✓building
isMO2
from
Analyzing
Figure
1300
illustrates
that
paramapproximate
, unbounded
we
elected
to
use
E[
|✓beD] as
iiLi’s
there
is
not
a clear
indication
that
GGM
model fails
to
i , used
i , building
form
distribution
matches
the the
mean
and variances
(Figure
the
same
building
set.
sampled
simulations
Gamma
distribution.
Based
on
Fan
[16]
MAP
distribui actual
parameters
have
a
large
distribution
range,
1 than the
Section 4.1).
eter
estimates
using
the GGM
are mostly
better
cause
✓
’s
values
exist
in
the
interval
whichestimate
means
our
estimates
for
which [0,1),
is the
MAP
under
a centers
i
represent
these
variables.
indicates
that
the GGM
over-the
1(b)),
it appears
theThis
matching
is only
because
tion,
we
derived
the
following
maximum
likelihood
estimate
i a ,[0,
which
mostly
at 0.5,
the uniform
distribution’s
ex-possible
btaining i ’s MAP
estimate,
it
can
be
used
to
estimates
generated
by
randomly
guessing
using
1]
ranto
evaluate
the
GGM
model
built
from
the
entire
MO1
data
set.
1 distribution.
Gamma
on Fanintegral
Li’s [16]for
MAP
Eq.
17 must
beoverall
transformed
to Based
a bounded
thedistribuP ( i 1 |✓i , i , D) with respect to i . However, (MLE)
actual building
parameters
havebuilding
a large distribution
equation
for
all is successfully
modeling
the FG
parameters.range,
In
dom
distribution.
The
pected
value.
i : GGM’s absolute error rate
i , D) is dependent upon the hyperparameter ✓i
is statistically
better
with 95%
than
uniformGiven,
tion,
we confidence
derived
the the
following
maximum
estimate
which
centers
at
0.5, the that
uniform
numerical
methods
to be applicable.
Eq likelihood
17’s comSimilar
to
theanalyzing
FG
datamostly
set
results,
the
Bayesian
GGM
fact
Figures
1(a)
indicates
the distribution’s
GGM isolatesexLi [16] noted that there is not a known method
1
distribution’s error rate
–
4.05±0.98
vs
5.07±1.01.
However,
(MLE) equation for
:
Acknowledgments
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References
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