What will be the average increase in air
temperature across the United States
in the next 20 years?
Answer: It doesn’t matter!!
Weather
Versus
Climate Change
as illustrated in Steve’s
hill slope stairs project,
and a old Irish saying
Variability v. Change
as Illustrated by Steve’s
hill slope stairs project
Change
(Climate)
Variability
(weather)
Former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neal
was quoted as saying
“All politics are local”
The same statement can be
made for Weather
Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of
total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events
(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)
BW 7
Karl et al. 1996
Temperature anomalies:
2000-2006 versus 1895-2000
Record Setting Low Temperatures Per Decade: Raleigh/ Durham
International Airport
100
85
79
Record Lows/ Decade
75
57
49
45
50
29
25
19
2
0
1944
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2007
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
R eco r L o w s/Y ear
Record Setting Low Temperatures Per Year: Raleigh/ Durham International Airport
25
20
15
10
5
0
Should average approximately 6 records per year
Record Setting High Temperatures Per Decade:
Raleigh/ Durham International Airport
100
Record Highs/Decade
86
75
69
63
45
50
39
32
31
25
0
1944
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
R e c o rd H ig h s /Y e a r
Record Setting High Temperatures Per Year (Including Ties): Raleigh/ Durham International Airport
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Should average approximately 6 records per year
Precipitation During the 21st Century: 8 Years
of Drought Index
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FORECAST
APRIL-JUNE 2008
OBSERVED WEATHER PERIOD: thru NOV 2007
FORECAST WEATHER PERIOD: DEC 2007 - JUN 2008
AVERAGED ACROSS FIVE
WEATHER FORECASTS
Falls of the Neuse Reservoir
Concluding with an old
Irish tale
It’s the fall, not the landing!
Change
(Climate,
the landing)
Variability
(weather,
the fall)