Don Falk, University of Arizona
Julio Betancourt, US Geological Survey
Monitoring Resilience and
Restoration in a Changing World
Forest Health Monitoring Working
Group, April 2012
Arguably the central scientific and
management question of our time:
How will ecosystems and organisms
adapt to rapid reorganization of the
Earth system?
What is the role of historical information in
guiding current and future ecosystem
management?
Constituent questions:
1. What is the role of ecological history in
guiding current and future ecosystem
management?
2. What are the trajectories of restoration
ecology and land management under novel
conditions?
VCNP fire timeline (25% filter)
Widespread fire years
V. SAN ANTONIO
V. SAN ANTONIO
V. TOLEDO
V. TOLEDO
V. SECO
V. SECO
ALAMO
BOG
V. JARAMILLO
ALAMO
BOG
V. JARAMILLO
V. GRANDE
V. GRANDE
EL CAJETE
EL CAJETE
Fire and Climate
Synthesis (FACS):
A major new
network for
continental
paleoecology
• 1,248 sites
• 64 contributors
• 3,248 years (1248 CE –
2011 CE)
• Fire-scar based, focused
on frequent-fire systems
• 7 primary forest types
• > 15,000 fire site-years
Falk et al. 2010, 2011, in prep.
Percent of active sites with fire, 1300-2000
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Are species range shifts an example of
adaptation, or a “problem” to be addressed?
Now
2030
2060
2090
Overall prediction:
• PIPO abundance declines 13% by 2090
• 18% of 2090 distribution is in new areas not currently occupied
• 27 – 36% of current stands remain in situ
• Most lost area is in southern limit of range
Rehfeldt et al. Int. J. Plant Sci., 2006
Corta Alloza, Spain
Costa Rica
Pune, India
Port Elizabeth, South Africa
Interactions between climate change,
disturbance, and other stressors may be
leading ecosystems in new trajectories
Cochiti Canyon, Jemez Mountains, NM,
following the 2011 Las Conchas Fire
Large
contiguous highseverity patches
(104 ha)
Interactions
with previous
events (e.g.
1977-1996) fires
Tipping-point
system behavior
into new
ecosystems
Figure: A. Thode, NAU
Challenges to the traditional
restoration paradigm:
• Does future climate create “no-analogue”
conditions compared to the ecologically
relevant past?
• If future climates move outside the envelope of
past variability, then what standard can we use
for “restoration”?
• Are some valued restoration objectives moving
out of our reach?
Millar et al. 2007; Fox 2007; Milly et al. 2008; Seastedt et al. 2008
Classic restoration paradigm
Resilience ecology paradigm
Target species
Equilibrium
Persistence
Complexity
Resilience
Adaptability
Stasis
Hot spots
Sites
Dynamics
Connectivity
Landscapes
Mean
Variance, higher moments
Composition
Process, function
Past-present reference
Past-present-future continuity
Populations, communities
Ecosystems, fluxes
Predictability
Stochasticity
Can we restore
fire and
ecosystems at
large scales in
the Sky Islands
bioregion?
Miller Fire: An important reference fire that
demonstrates what happens when fire is allowed
to stay in the system
Preliminary burn severity in the Miller Fire, Gila
Wilderness
A proposal for a Long-Term Restoration
Monitoring Network (LTRMN)
Monitoring outcomes of ecological restoration: a
natural extension of National Forest Health
Monitoring and NEON?
What would a LTRMN look like?
• Identify restoration projects with longest
period of continuous management
• Prioritize projects with ongoing monitoring
data and infrastructure
• Distribute strategically among biomes and
community types
• Focus on the central question of outcomes
Five principles for monitoring and
restoring ecosystems in a changing world
1. Manage for resilience and adaptive capacity,
not steady state
2. Allow for the natural range of variability,
understand history
3. Emphasize restoration of ecosystem
processes
4. Focus on the landscape and regional scales
5. Monitor change across scales of space and
time
Thanks:
Erica Bigio, Josh Conver, Jacquie Dewar, Matt Hall, Tom
Swetnam, University of Arizona
Thomas Kitzberger, Universidad Nacional del Comahue,
Argentina
Tony Westerling, University of California – Merced
Peter Brown, Rocky Mountain Tree-Ring Research
Elaine Sutherland, US Forest Service
Craig Allen, USGS
Bob Parmenter, VCNP
Cal Farris, National Park Service
FACS contributors