Linking Finance to Performance/Outcomes presented to Montana University System Helena, Montana March 11, 2010 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301 Why? What’s driving this policy shift? slide 2 What’s Driving this Policy Shift? 1. Increasing clarity of goals and an urgency about attaining them – National level – State level 2. Resource constraints 3 National Level “By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world” President Barack Obama, February 24, 2009 slide 4 State Level • Board of Regents Goals – Increase educational attainment of Montanans – Assist in the expansion and improvement of the economy – Improve institutional efficiency and effectiveness 5 Comparing Montana with Nations & Other States in the Percentage of Young-Adult Degree Attainment (ages 25-34) United States % OECD Counties 56 Canada • Korea 54 Japan Massachusetts 52 North Dakota 50 Minnesota • New York 48 Connecticut • Iowa • New Hampshire • New Jersey Maryland Nebraska • South Dakota • Vermont Illinois • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island Virginia Colorado • Hawaii• Kansas Wisconsin Washington Utah Missouri California • Delaware • Indiana • Maine • MONTANA • Michigan • Ohio • North Carolina • Oregon Florida Georgia • Idaho • South Carolina • Wyoming 46 Alabama • Kentucky • Mississippi Arizona • Tennessee • Texas Alaska • Oklahoma New Mexico Louisiana • Nevada • West Virginia 32 Arkansas 26 New Zealand 44 Ireland Norway 42 40 Australia • Belgium • France Denmark • Sweden • UNITED STATES Finland • Spain 38 36 Netherland • United Kingdom Luxembourg Switzerland 34 30 Iceland Poland 28 Greece 24 22 Germany Hungary Portugal 20 Austria • Italy • Mexico 18 6 Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2009 Slovak Republic (17%) Czech Republic (15%) Turkey (14%) Associate and Bachelors Degrees Needed to Become the Most Educated Country by 2020 4,500,000 Current Annual Degree Production Additional Degrees Needed to Meet Goal 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Additional Annual Degree Production Needed – 150,528 per Year 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Current Annual Degree Production – 2,252,212 1,000,000 500,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Increase in State and Local Funding at Current Cost per FTE 50% 40% 35% 30% 30% 32% 25% 21% 17% 20% 12% 10% 5% 7% 14% 9% 3% 0% 2009 slide 7 7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Note: Assumes private institutions will maintain current share Colorado New Jersey Minnesota North Dakota Connecticut New Hampshire Massachusetts Annual Percent Increase Needed to Reach 2020 Goal of 51% Note: for Montana this translates to 596 per year. Undergraduate FTE Enrollment by Sector (2006-07) 9 How Montana Ranks Among Other States on Selected Measures for Education and Economic Development Education Measures Economic Development Measures Public High School Graduation Rates College-Going Rates of Students Directly Out of High School Three-Year Graduation Rates of Associate Students Six-Year Graduation Rates of Bachelor's Students Overall Results on Student Pipeline (Transition & Completion Rates, 9th Grade to College Completion) Migration Rate of College Graduates (Age 22-64) Difference in Earnings Between Associate & High School Diploma Difference in Earnings Between Bachelor's & High School Diploma Personal Income per Capita State New Economy Index 10 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity; US Census Bureau, 2006 ACS Public Microdata Sample (PUMS) File, Kauffman Foundation, Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce 58.7 60 48.7 32.0 33.5 14.7 ka Alas da Neva iana Louis s Texa ersey J New essee Tenn sas n Arka sippi is Miss Mexico New ma a Alab Carolina h inia Sout t Virg We s e Main rnia o Calif ecticut Conn ia g Geor ii a Haw n o Oreg o Idah land Mary oma h Okla Carolina North Ohio na ta Mon nia Virgi gan i Mich d States Unitena India are w Dela da Flori uri o Miss cky u Kent York New ington h Wa s rado Colo sylvania e r Penn ampshi H New is Illino onsin Wisc Dakota s h Sout achusett Mass a n Arizo s a Kans ont Verm ska a Nebr sota e Minn Utah ing m Wyo e Island Rhod Dakota North Iowa slide 11 Certificates/Diplomas Associate Bachelor's 50 Undergraduate Credentials & Degrees Awarded at All Colleges per 1,000 Adults Age 18-44 with No College Degree, 2006 40 30 20 10 0 Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005-06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS Undergraduate Awards per 100 FTE Undergraduates 2006-07 Source: NCES IPEDS Peer Analysis System (http://www.nces.ed.gov/ipedspas/), IPEDS 2006-07 efia2007 Early Release Enrollment File; NCES IPEDS Peer Analysis System (http://www.nces.ed.gov/ipedspas/), IPEDS 2005-06 c2006_a Final Release Completions File 12 Note: Completions reflect 2006-07 total undergraduate degrees (Associate, Bachelors) and certificates (less than 1-year, 1-2 year, 2-4 year) awarded at Title IV degree granting public and private institutions. Enrollments reflect 2006-07 annual FTE undergraduate enrollments at Title IV degree-granting public and private institutions as reported in the IPEDS 2006-07 12-month instructional activity enrollment file. Enrollment data were aggregated from an early release data file and are subject to change. Public Research Institutions - Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2006-07 Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Completions File; c2007_a Early Release Data File Downloaded 04-28-08; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Instructional Activity File; efia2007 Final Release Data File; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Unduplicated Headcount File; effy2007 Final Release Data File.; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2006 Enrollment File; ef2006a Final Release Data File. 13 Public Masters & Bachelors Institutions - Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2006-07 14 Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Completions File; c2007_a Early Release Data File Downloaded 04-28-08; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Instructional Activity File; efia2007 Final Release Data File; NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Unduplicated Headcount File; effy2007 Final Release Data File.; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2006 Enrollment File; ef2006a Final Release Data File. Public Associate Colleges - Total Credentials Awarded (Less than Bachelors) per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2006-07 THE FISCAL REALITIES slide 16 The Flow of Funds Economy Federal Government Available State and Local Govt. Funds • • • • Higher Education Student Aid Appropriations/Grants Tuition Institutions Students Scholarships & Waivers Student Aid (Restricted) Federal Government 17 K-12 Corrections Health Care Other Govt. Donors Foundations Corporations The Flow of Funds - State Economy Available State and Local Govt. Funds Higher Education Student Aid Appropriations/Grants Tuition Students Institutions Scholarships & Waivers Student Aid Federal Government 18 State Tax Capacity and Effort—Indexed to U.S. Average 1.7 State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita) DE 1.6 1.5 1.4 CT NJ 1.3 MA AK 1.2 VA NH 1.1 WY MD CO NV 1.0 IL WA CA US PA NE SD 0.9 NC GA KS MO FL IN IA ORTX TN SC 0.8 AL ID AZ ND UT KY MT 0.7 NY MN RI OH WI HI VT ME MI NM OK AR LA WV MS 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate) Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) Slide 19 -6 -8 -10 -12 slide 20 -10.6 -10.8 -10.9 -4 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 -3 -3.3 -3.5 -3.5 -3.8 -4.1 -4.6 -4.7 -4.8 -4.9 -5 -5.1 -5.2 -5.4 -5.7 -5.7 -5.8 -5.8 -6 -6.2 -6.3 -6.3 -6.7 -6.7 -6.8 -7.2 -7.4 -7.8 -8 -8.1 -8.1 -8.5 -8.5 -8.5 -8.7 -8.9 -9.1 -9.4 -9.5 -9.7 Maryland Maine Vermont New Jersey Connecticut New Hampshire Rhode Island North Dakota Wisconsin Massachusetts Michigan Wyoming California Ohio Delaware Kansas Oregon Virginia New York Minnesota West Virginia Pennsylvania Illinois Alaska Nebraska Montana United States Louisiana Indiana Hawaii Oklahoma New Mexico Missouri Kentucky Iowa South Dakota Washington Florida South Carolina Arkansas Georgia Colorado Tennessee North Carolina Idaho Utah Arizona Nevada Alabama Texas Mississippi Projected State & Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016 0 -2 Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 State/Local Funding plus Tuition Revenue per FTE Student All Institutions (Public) Source: SHEEO SHEF 21 Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations $30,000 $29,172 $9,682 $11,243 $11,620 $12,324 $12,449 $12,666 $13,121 $13,675 $14,006 $14,018 $14,777 $14,865 $15,003 $15,093 $15,125 $15,180 $15,406 $15,541 $15,568 $15,714 $15,774 $15,837 $16,057 $16,059 $16,092 $16,155 $16,172 $16,195 $16,275 $16,774 $16,974 $17,267 $17,360 $17,610 $18,537 $18,657 $18,773 $18,843 $18,989 $19,227 $19,545 $19,721 $19,783 $19,865 $20,010 $21,384 $21,640 $22,095 $23,263 $24,184 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 Colorado Montana South Dakota Oregon Mississippi Louisiana Texas New Hampshire North Dakota Florida Illinois Arkansas Arizona West Virginia Ohio Nevada Oklahoma Wisconsin Utah Georgia Virginia Kansas Rhode Island Missouri Michigan Indiana Idaho Nation New Mexico Pennsylvania Maine South Carolina Washington Tennessee New Jersey Delaware Iowa California Alabama Nebraska Maryland Wyoming Kentucky Massachusetts North Carolina Vermont New York Connecticut Hawaii Minnesota Alaska Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. slide 22 Public Research $35,000 $5,000 $0 Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations $17,984 $5,105 $6,311 $7,209 $7,877 $7,964 $8,400 $8,414 $8,748 $8,846 $8,959 $9,185 $9,410 $9,622 $9,630 $9,701 $9,702 $9,933 $9,945 $9,957 $10,039 $10,162 $10,179 $10,251 $10,275 $10,312 $10,343 $10,370 $10,405 $10,464 $10,721 $10,778 $10,788 $10,836 $11,063 $11,249 $11,266 $11,284 $11,389 $11,443 $11,443 $11,862 $12,011 $12,105 $12,324 $12,929 $13,683 $14,426 $14,440 $14,587 $16,148 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 Colorado Utah Arizona South Dakota West Virginia Georgia Louisiana Oklahoma Nevada Wisconsin Nebraska Arkansas North Dakota Oregon Tennessee Indiana Texas Minnesota New Hampshire California Pennsylvania Kansas DC Missouri Idaho Nation Mississippi Ohio Kentucky South Carolina Michigan Florida New York Washington Illinois Montana Alabama Rhode Island Virginia Vermont Maine Massachusetts Maryland Iowa New Mexico New Jersey Alaska North Carolina Connecticut Hawaii Delaware Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. slide 23 Public Masters and Baccalaureate $20,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations $14,793 $5,297 $5,517 $5,712 $5,939 $5,945 $5,970 $6,028 $6,082 $6,353 $6,465 $6,510 $6,630 $6,676 $6,714 $6,823 $6,844 $6,895 $6,918 $7,018 $7,117 $7,222 $7,239 $7,329 $7,403 $7,416 $7,432 $7,448 $7,507 $7,509 $7,566 $7,633 $7,772 $8,044 $8,067 $8,214 $8,378 $8,411 $8,449 $8,480 $8,625 $8,705 $8,801 $8,844 $9,125 $9,953 $9,964 $10,287 $10,683 $11,197 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $3,369 West Virginia Kentucky Indiana Colorado South Dakota Virginia Mississippi Georgia Florida South Carolina Oklahoma New Jersey Arkansas Iowa Tennessee Louisiana Missouri Nebraska Illinois Alabama Nevada Maine Washington California Montana Nation Texas North Carolina Utah Ohio Rhode Island Arizona Minnesota North Dakota Pennsylvania Michigan Alaska New Mexico Massachusetts Idaho New Hampshire New York Oregon Kansas Vermont Connecticut Delaware Maryland Wyoming Hawaii Wisconsin Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. slide 24 Public 2-Year $16,000 $14,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 0% 13.0% 20% Wyoming New Mexico California Nevada Georgia Idaho North Carolina Hawaii Louisiana Florida Alaska Washington New York Illinois Utah Oklahoma Nebraska Tennessee Mississippi Texas Arkansas US Wisconsin Connecticut Missouri Massachusetts Arizona Kansas North Dakota Alabama Kentucky Minnesota Maryland New Jersey West Virginia Oregon Virginia South Carolina Iowa Maine Montana Indiana Ohio South Dakota Pennsylvania Colorado Michigan Rhode Island Delaware New Hampshire 40% 36.3% 60% 50% 49.6% 80% 69.9% Net Tuition as a Percent of Public Higher Education Total Educational Revenue by State, FY 2008 70% 30% 10% Note: Dollars adjusted by 2008 HECA, Cost of Living Adjustment, and Enrollment Mix Source: SHEEO SHEF 25 Net Tuition Revenues per FTE and State-Funded Tuition Aid per FTE by State, FY 2008 (Public Institutions Only) $1,800 NET TUIT/FTE: below avg TUIT AID/FTE: above avg NET TUIT/FTE: above avg TUIT AID/FTE: above avg SC $1,600 GA $1,400 TN FY 2008 Tuition Aid per FTE $1,200 $1,000 FL $800 NY OK LA WYWA NC NV $600 NJ US $400 CA NM MO MS ID NET TUIT/FTE: below avg TUIT AID/FTE: below avg $0 $0 $1,000 $2,000 UT HI $3,000 PA IN IL WI AR $200 KY WV KS ND TX NE AK $4,000 CO MD MN MA VA OR OH MT AZ $5,000 DE VT MI ME AL SD IA CT $6,000 RI NET TUIT/FTE: above avg TUIT AID/FTE: below avg NH $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 Fiscal 2008 Net Tuition Revenues per FTE Note: Figures are adjusted for inflation, public system enrollment mix, and state cost of living. Funding and FTE data are for public non-medical students only. Source: SHEEO SHEF 26 96% 82% 84% 84% 86% 88% 70% 74% 56% 57% 59% 62% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 8% 8% 9% 10% 13% 16% 17% 19% 20% 21% 24% 28% 28% 28% 29% 32% 33% 36% 37% 41% 41% 43% 46% 48% 48% 49% 50% South Dakota Georgia Wyoming Mississippi Arizona Idaho Hawaii Alabama Alaska Utah Louisiana Montana North Dakota New Hampshire Tennessee Kansas Nebraska New Mexico Florida Oregon Rhode Island Michigan Arkansas Missouri Texas Iowa South Carolina Maine Oklahoma Colorado West Virginia Ohio Nevada Kentucky Delaware Virginia California Massachusetts Maryland Wisconsin North Carolina Connecticut Illinois Minnesota Indiana Pennsylvania New York Vermont New Jersey Washington 0% State need-based aid as a proportion of federal need-based aid. 102% 108% 100% Affordability: Need-based Financial Aid 120% 80% 60% 40% 20% Source: Measuring Up 2008 slide 27 Measuring Up: Affordability Source: Measuring Up 2008 28 Median Earnings of Population Age 25-64 by Level of Education, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey PUMS File 29 Education Attainment & Personal Income by Montana Counties $40,000 $35,000 Yellowstone Personal Income Per Capita Gallatin Lewis and Clark Fallon Missoula $30,000 MT $25,000 Mineral Judith Basin Powell Big Horn $20,000 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 Adults aged 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher (%) 30 40 45 Adjusting to Changed Circumstances Improving Productivity 31 Productivity: Total Funding per Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 29,075 30,619 33,273 33,756 34,330 34,594 36,498 37,823 38,364 38,365 39,516 39,516 39,918 42,177 42,198 42,408 42,693 42,847 42,873 42,948 43,820 44,272 44,371 45,833 45,904 46,522 46,880 47,453 47,672 47,749 48,611 49,894 52,491 52,572 52,888 53,535 54,553 56,090 56,280 56,888 56,960 59,420 59,465 63,822 64,934 65,975 66,623 72,846 75,744 79,794 86,009 100,000 Tuition and Fees State and Local 20,000 10,000 - Alaska Wyoming Delaware Rhode Island Connecticut Hawaii Massachusetts New Jersey Vermont Maryland Nevada New York Alabama Pennsylvania Maine California New Mexico Tennessee Michigan North Carolina South Carolina Texas Nebraska Indiana Ohio Nation Missouri Virginia Iowa Kentucky Oregon Minnesota Arkansas Arizona Mississippi Illinois New Hampshire Idaho Wisconsin Louisiana Georgia Kansas South Dakota Montana West Virginia Oklahoma North Dakota Utah Washington Colorado Florida Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples) slide 32 *Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level) Degrees & Certificates awarded per FTE vs. Total Funding per FTE (2006-2007) 32 Low Resources, High Production High Resources, High Production CO 29 UT OK FL KY WA 26 Performance: Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE 23 KS WI SDGA MN AZ ND WV MT LA NH IA CT MI IDIL VA IN OH SC US NE TX TN AR OR MS MO PA ME AL MD VT HI NJ MA NY DE WY AK NC NM 20 RI NV 17 CA Low Resources, Low Production 14 5,000 8,000 High Resources, Low Production 11,000 14,000 17,000 20,000 Resources: Total Funding per FTE Source: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008: NCES IPEDS Completions Survey slide 33 Performance Relative to Funding: Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates (Public Research Institutions) 27 CT WA UT CA Performance (2006-07) IL 24 FL MO OR TX MD PA OK 21 GA VA US CO OH KS WI NH MS ID IN AZ ND NM 18 MT SD 15 5,000 10,000 LA MI NE IA DE NVTN RI WV HI MA WY SC NJ ME NY NC VT MN KY AL AR 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Total Funding per FTE (2006-07) slide 34 Source: NCES, IPEDS Performance Relative to Funding: Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates (Public Bachelors and Masters) 30 WA 25 NJ Performance (2006-07) IL KS CA OR 20 MD VA NY IA ME RI NH SC WI MN FL US NE TX ND MI MA MO TN MS VTPA AL KY WV MT AR GA OK CO AZ 15 SD LA NC NM DE INID NV 10 HI CT OH UT AK 5 2,000 5,000 8,000 11,000 14,000 17,000 20,000 Total Funding per FTE (2006-07) slide 35 Source: NCES, IPEDS Performance Relative to Funding: All Credentials Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates (Public Two-Year Institutions) 48 KY 40 Performance (2006-07) SD WI LA ND GA 32 MN AZ 24 MS MO 16 OK IN TN VA KS NH FL AR CO SC IAWA MT IL VT NC UT US NE ME AL OH NJ DE ID MA HI NMMI NY TX PA CA ORCT RI WY MD AK NV 8 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Total Funding per FTE (2006-07) slide 36 Source: NCES, IPEDS How? What are Emerging Best Practices? slide 37 Basic Principles • Applied to allocation of base – not just a small add-on • Few factors that can be measured unambiguously • Different factors for different types of institutions – Research – 4-Year teaching – 2-Year • Methodology is transparent – incentives created are linked to goals in obvious ways • They can be applied in good times and bad 38 Emerging Practices • Using completed SCH – not enrolled SCH – as driver in calculating base • Additional funds tied to specific goals – Increasing number of graduates – with variations for • At-risk students • Students in priority fields – Increasing research funding from sources other than state or institution’s own funds – “Momentum Point” attainment in two-year institutions 39