We’re Number One(s)?
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What do Portland1 (OR), Newton2 (MA), Plano3 (TX), Des Moines4 (IA) and
New York5 (NY) have in common? They have each been named “the best city
in the United States” within the last two months! And they’re not the only
ones; numerous municipalities have been similarly honored by a variety of
publications and online sites. While it’s clear that they can’t all be “The Best,”
it’s also reasonable to assume that each ranking methodology has some merit.
Is it possible to leverage the work of others to build a better model? Can you
actually determine “The Best” U.S. city?
Your team must create a mathematical model to rank U.S. cities. Your model
must incorporate aspects (e.g., data, ranking criteria, actual rankings) from at
least five published U.S. city rankings; not all from the provided list, to create
your ranking. To account for demographic differences, create three rankings
based on age group: one for 18-34 year olds, 35 – 64 year olds and individuals
65 years of age and older. Your solution must include top ten rankings for
each of the demographic groups as well as a fully justified methodology.
1 http://realestate.msn.com/10-best-cities-in-the-us#11
2 http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/09/17/americas-50-best-cities-to-live/13/
3 http://www.areavibes.com/best-places/america/
4 http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2014/08/18/americas-15-best-cities-for-young-professionals/
5 http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/03/50-best-us-biking-cities/15017309/
Going the Extra Yard
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There are few things more certain in football than the “extra point.” After a
team scores a touchdown, the ball is placed on the 2 yard line and teams have
the option of kicking the ball through the goal posts for an “extra point” or
attempting to run or pass the ball into the end zone for a “two-point
conversion.” During the 2013 season, NFL kickers were 1,316/1,321 (99.6%)
successful. In contrast, there were 69 two point conversion attempts, with
only 33 being successful. As a result, many fans choose to not even watch
extra point attempts, opting instead to take a bathroom break or to get more
food or drink.
The NFL is considering a rule change in order to make the “point after
touchdown” attempts more appealing to fans. During the 2014 NFL
Preseason, the league experimented with a rule change that moved the extra
point line from the 2 yard line to the 25 yard line. (The placement of the ball
for the two-point conversion remained unchanged.) Of the 141 extra points
attempted during the preseason, 133 were successful. Clearly, increasing the
distance of the extra point attempt will make extra points more difficult, but
will it make the game more exciting? More specifically, will it cause more
teams to attempt the two-point conversion?
Create a mathematical model to predict the rate at which extra point attempts
will be successful based on the spot of the kick. At what point does it become
more desirable to attempt 2 point conversions instead?
The following webpages have useful statistics/data regarding the National Football League:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics