CONTENTS
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CONTENTS Foreword............................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................... iv Executive Summary........................................................................................................................... ix Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 1 V. Alaric Sample, Pinchot Institute for Conservation, Washington, DC Section I: Monitoring and Projecting Effects of Changing Climatic Regimes and Other Large-scale, Long-term Influences on Forest Ecosystems and Sustainable Management of Forests.................................................................................................... 9 Climate Change in the Age of Humans..................................................................................... 11 J. Curt Stager, Natural Sciences, Paul Smith’s College, Paul Smiths, NY Evidence-based Planning for Forest Adaptation....................................................................... 27 Lee Hannah, Conservation International, Arlington, VA Thomas E. Lovejoy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA Adapting Forest Science, Practice, and Policy to Shifting Ground: From Steady-State Assumptions to Dynamic Change............................................................................................. 35 Daniel B. Botkin, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL Evolving Conservation Paradigms for the Anthropocene.......................................................... 47 Ariel E. Lugo, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service Terrestrial Protected Areas: Threats and Solutions................................................................... 61 Tim Caro, Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California at Davis Grace K. Charles, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis Dena J. Clink, Department of Anthropology, University of California at Davis Jason Riggio, Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California at Davis Alexandra Weill, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis Carolyn Whitesell, Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California at Davis Section II: Uncharted Territory: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Options for Sustaining Key Values and Services From Forest Ecosystems Under Conditions of Elevated Uncertainty.................................................................................................. 79 Briefing: Climate and Wildfire in Western U.S. Forests............................................................. 81 Anthony Westerling, Environmental Engineering and Geography, Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced Tim Brown, Western Regional Climate Center, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, University of Nevada, Reno Tania Schoennagel, Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder Thomas Swetnam, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona Monica Turner, Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin Thomas Veblen, Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder v Forest Ecosystem Re-organization Underway in the Southwestern United States: A Preview of Widespread Forest Changes in the Anthropocene?........................................ 103 Craig D. Allen, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station, Los Alamos, NM Increasing Resiliency in Frequent Fire Forests: Lessons from the Sierra Nevada and Western Australia.............................................................................................................. 123 Scott L. Stephens, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management. University of California, Berkeley. Berkeley, CA Planning the Future’s Forests with Assisted Migration........................................................... 133 Mary I. Williams, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI R. Kasten Dumroese, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, ID Invasive Plants, Insects, and Diseases in the Forests of the Anthropocene............................. 145 Alexander M. Evans, Forest Guild, Santa Fe, NM Indigenous Experiences in the U.S. with Climate Change and Environmental Stewardship in the Anthropocene ..................................................................................... 161 Karletta Chief, (Navajo Nation), Department of Soil, Water, and Environmental Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ John J. Daigle , (Penobscot Nation), School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orono, ME Kathy Lynn, Environmental Studies Program, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR Kyle Powys Whyte, (Citizen Potawatomi Nation), Department of Philosophy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI Journeying into the Anthropocene—Scots Pine and Eastern Hemlock Over the Next 400 Years................................................................................................................... 177 Duncan Stone, Scottish Natural Heritage, Inverness, Scotland, and Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA, USA Mitigating Anthropocene Influences in Forests in the United States....................................... 189 Chadwick Dearing Oliver, Global Institute of Sustainable Forestry; School of Forestry and Environmental Studies; Yale University; New Haven, CT Section III: Developing and Implementing Adaptation Strategies for Biodiversity Conservation on Large Landscapes and Varying Patterns of Public and Private Ownership........................................................................................................ 203 Challenges and Opportunities for Large Landscape-Scale Management in a Shifting Climate: The Importance of Nested Adaptation Responses Across Geospatial and Temporal Scales................................................................................................................. 205 Gary M. Tabor, Center for Large Landscape Conservation, Bozeman, MT Anne Carlson, The Wilderness Society, Bozeman, MT Travis Belote, The Wilderness Society, Bozeman, MT Implementing Climate Change Adaptation in Forested Regions of the United States.............. 229 Jessica E. Halofsky, University of Washington, College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Resources David L. Peterson, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Pacific Wildland Science Fire Laboratory Linda A. Joyce, Human Dimensions Research Program at the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Constance I. Millar, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station Janine M. Rice, University of Colorado, Western Water Assessment and the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Christopher W. Swanston, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station vi Improving the Role of Vulnerability Assessments In Decision Support for Effective Climate Adaptation ........................................................................................................... 245 Linda A. Joyce, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ft. Collins, CO Constance I. Millar, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Albany, CA Maintaining Forest Diversity in a Changing Climate: a Geophysical Approach........................ 273 Mark Anderson, North America Eastern Division, The Nature Conservancy Nels Johnson, Pennsylvania Chapter, The Nature Conservancy Scott Bearer, Pennsylvania Chapter, The Nature Conservancy Adaptation Approaches for Conserving Ecosystems Services and Biodiversity in Dynamic Landscapes Caused By Climate Change................................................................ 297 Oswald J. Schmitz, Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT Anne M. Trainor, Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT Section IV: Water Resource Protection: Investment Strategies for Managing Risks From Wildfires, Pests/Pathogens, and Severe Storm Events.......................................... 311 Adaptation: Forests as Water Infrastructure in a Changing Climate........................................ 313 Todd Gartner, Nature for Water Campaign, World Resources Institute, Portland, OR Heather McGray, Vulnerability and Adaptation Initiative, World Resources Institute James Mulligan, Green Community Ventures Jonas Epstein, World Resources Institute Ayesha Dinshaw, Vulnerability and Adaptation Initiative, World Resources Institute Water Source Protection Funds as a Tool to Address Climate Adaptation and Resiliency in Southwestern Forests.................................................................................................... 329 Laura Falk McCarthy, The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, Santa Fe, NM Measuring Resilience to Climate Change: The Benefits of Forest Conservation in the Floodplain . ....................................................................................................................... 345 Carolyn Kousky, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC Margaret Walls, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC Ziyan Chu, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC A Community Based Approach to Improving Resilience of Forests and Water Resources: A Local and Regional Climate Adaptation Methodology..................................................... 361 Toby Thaler, Model Forest Policy Program, Seattle, WA Gwen Griffith, Cumberland River Compact, Nashville, TN Nancy Gilliam, Model Forest Policy Program, Sagle, ID Climate Change Effects on Forests, Water Resources, and Communities of the Delaware River Basin......................................................................................................................... 379 Will Price and Susan Beecher, Pinchot Institute for Conservation, Washington, DC Cumulative Effects: Managing Natural Resources for Resilience in the Urban Context............ 393 Sarah C. Low, Philadelphia Field Station, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Philadelphia, PA Considerations for Forest Adaptation to Climate Change in Sustainable Production of Wood/Fiber/Biomass and Ecosystem Services................................................................... 403 Roger A. Sedjo, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC vii Section V: Evolving Institutional and Policy Frameworks to Support Timely Implementation of Adaptation Strategies..................................................................... 411 National Wildlife Refuges: Portals to Conservation................................................................ 413 Joseph F. McCauley, National Wildlife Refuge System, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Realty, Hadley, MA Policy Challenges for Wildlife Management in a Changing Climate......................................... 427 Mark L. Shaffer, Office of the Science Advisor, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Evolving Institutional and Policy Frameworks to Support Adaptation Strategies.................... 443 Dave Cleaves, , USDA Forest Service—Office of the Climate Change Advisor, Washington, DC Climate Change: Wilderness’s Greatest Challenge.................................................................. 453 Nathan L. Stephenson, U.S. Geological Survey, Three Rivers, CA Constance I. Millar, USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station, Albany, CA Evolving the Policy Framework: Budget Strategies, Legislative Authorities, and Management Strategies to Facilitate Federal Forest Adaptation and Collaborative Partnerships...................................................................................................................... 461 Christopher Topik, The Nature Conservancy, North America Region, Arlington, VA Paige Lewis, The Nature Conservancy, Boulder, CO Summary and Synthesis.................................................................................................... 471 V. Alaric Sample Christopher Topik viii
