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Ecological Monitoring for the Northwest
Forest Plan: a Comparison to Other Major
Ecosystem Initiatives 1
David E. Busch2
Abstract-The Northwest Forest Plan has certain aspects that set
it apart from other regional-scale ecosystem initiatives implemented over the past decade in North America. Some of these
differences have influenced the innovation possible in planning and
implementing a monitoring program for the Forest Plan. This paper
compares monitoring for two other large-scale ecosystem initiatives
with monitoring for the regional plan that has altered ecosystem
management in the northwestern U.S. to conserve late successional
forest and associated aquatic environments. In addition to Forest
Plan monitoring, the focus is on ecological monitoring associated
with the efforts to restore south Florida's ecosystems and monitoring conducted in ecosystems of the lower Colorado River. Despite
obvious ecological and institutional differences, the objectives and
unprecedented scope of monitoring associated with these initiatives
are similar. Examples are drawn from forested communities in the
three areas, with an emphasis on monitoring approaches being
utilized at the upland-aquatic interface. Providing the basis for this
comparison are elements of the Forest Plan monitoring strategy
for riparian ecosystems, monitoring of hydrological restoration of
the Florida Everglades, and monitoring of southwestern riparian
forests.
The purpose of this paper is to compare the ecological
monitoring programs associated with three major North
American ecosystem initiatives, each of which affects important forested habitats. To achieve this end, the important
ecological and institutionai differences among initiatives
must be contrasted. However, there are some important
features that these initiatives have in common.
The initiatives being compared are 1) the Northwest
Forest Plan, the strategy by which management of late
successional forest and associated aquatic ecosystems has
been altered in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S.;
2) restoration of the lower Colorado River in the U.S. and
Mexico, specifically the rehabilitation of riparian forest
systems that support regionally significant wildlife diversity and abundance; and 3) restoration of south Florida's
Everglades ecosystem, which directly affects slash pine
(Pinus elliottii var. densa) forests and hardwood hammocks.
These ecosystem initiatives share a high level of commitment from organizations ranging from the top levels of
government to a plurality of private citizens in the affected regions. This commitment has been associated with
a level of funding that has enabled restoration efforts to
proceed. However, support for moni toring over the long term
has generally proven to be less certain.
Although vertebrate population monitoring is typically
only one element of a comprehensive monitoring program,
these initiatives share a genesis rooted in crises surrounding the status of individual wildlife species or groups. For
the Northwest Forest Plan, the species of greatest concern
was the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina,
Thomas et al. 1990), with concerns about the marbled
murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) and anadromous
fish populations also of high or increasing importance.
Concern for imperiled avian populations in southwestern
riparian ecosystems has driven much of the effort to preserve and restore gallery forests along the lower Colorado
River and similar floodplain environments (Ohmart et al.
1988). Conservation of the Everglades ecosystem has long
been tied to the status of wading bird populations, but
organisms such as the Florida panther (Felis concolor
coryii) are also linked to the restoration of forested habitats
in south Florida (Smith and Bass 1994).
Given these commonalities, variation in three aspects of
ecosystem monitoring helps to differentiate the monitoring
being implemented for the Northwest Forest Plan from that
occurring in the south Florida and lower Colorado River
regions. These three aspects are:
• the institutional drivers that mandate ecological monitoring programs
• the forcing functions that influence ecosystem processes
and structure
• the conceptual factors that serve as a basis for monitoring
This paper explores how the Forest Plan monitoring
program differs from monitoring for the other two regional
initiatives with respect to these aspects. Following a brief
discussion of the geographic setting of the three regional
initiatives, the focus will be on factors pertinent to forest
ecosystem monitoring, particularly those pertinent to monitoring at the interface of forested and aquatic systems.
Geographic Scope
Ipaper presented at the North American Science Symposium: Toward a
Unified Framework for Inventorying and Monitoring Forest Ecosystem
Resources, Guadalajara, Mexico, November 1-6,1998.
Research and Monitoring Group representative for the Northwest Forest
Plan, USGS-Biological Resources Division, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem
Science Center, Regional Ecosystem Office, P.O. Box 3623, Portland, OR
97208, U.S.A.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999
Stemming largely from the impasse between timber production on federal lands in the Pacific Northwest and the
attainment of the goals of the Endangered Species Act, the
Northwest Forest Plan covers the range of the federallythreatened northern spotted owl. This area includes over
9 million hectares (22 million acres) of forested public land
239
,
~:
'
encompassing 19 National Forests and 5 Bureau of Land
Management Districts. The area covered by the Plan extends from the San Francisco Bay in California to the
Canadian border with Washington, and from the Pacific
coast to east of the crest of the Cascade Mountains.
Flowing from Glen Canyon Dam to the Gulf of California,
the lower Colorado River is the principal drainage in the
interior southwestern U.S. and extreme northwestern
Mexico. Contrasting sharply with its surrounding desert
landscape, the lower Colorado floodplain is covered by riparian vegetation including gallery forests dominated by cottonwood (Populus fremontii), willow (Salix gooddingii), and
mesquite (Prosopis spp.) which have over the last 50-60
years been replaced in many places by exotic Tamarix
chinensis scrub.
South Florida ecosystem initiatives are focused on the
Kissimmee River drainage, Lake Okeechobee, and the area
between the Miami Rock Ridge and Florida's southwest
coast including Florida Bay. The lower mainland part of
this drainage network (south of Lake Okeechobee) comprises the greater Florida Everglades. Forested habitats
within the Everglades include pine rockland savannas,
hardwood hammocks, and baldcypress domes.
Institutional Aspects _ _ _ _ __
Each of the regional ecosystems has been exposed to
intensive scrutiny through environmental assessment activity associated with the National Environmental Policy
Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and other
environmental legislation and regulation. A series of such
assessments has been conducted along the lower Colorado
River in association with the Glen Canyon Dam Environmental Studies, the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control
Project, and similar programs. Requirements for comprehensive, long-term ecological monitoring of terrestrial environments appear to be lacking for many of the lower Colorado River ecosystem projects. However, an important
component of the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies is
the development of a long-term monitoring plan for the
Grand Canyon area (National Research Council 1994, Marzolf
et al. 1998). Although this plan does not encompass the
entire lower Colorado River region, a number of long-term
ecological studies (cf. Ohmart et al. 1988) have taken place
in riparian forests below the Grand Canyon.
Restoration of the Florida Everglades is rooted in legislation and intergovernmental agreements at both the federal
and state level. A 1993 Interagency Agreement was the
basis for unifying the comprehensive federal restoration
effort under an interagency South Florida Ecosystem Restoration TaskForce. More recently, commitments strengthening this effort were made in the form of the Department of
the Interior's Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative and a
new strategic science planning effort aimed at integrating
agency research and monitoring programs. The need to
establish ecological endpoints or success criteria rooted in
ecological management principles is recognized as critical to
the restoration of south Florida ecosystems (Harwell et al.
1996). However, it has proven difficult to define ecological
endpoints and the way in which progress toward such endpoints could be monitored. Although ecological monitoring
240
is recognized for its importance in determining the scientific credibility of restoration efforts being planned and
conducted, Everglades monitoring programs have lacked
focus due to uncertainty about the relative value of potential
indicators in the light of overall restoration objectives.
Of the ecosystem initiatives ~onsidered, monitoring for
the Northwest Forest Plan has perhaps the strongest basis
in the decisions of the courts. Conflicting legal claims brought
timber programs on federal lands in western Washington
and Oregon, and northwestern California to a near standstill in the early 1990's. The President's announcement of a
"Forest Plan for a Sustainable Economy and a Sustainable
Environment" catalyzed a process to design an interagency
strategy for managing forest resources (Tuchman et al.
1996). With the issuance of a joint Record of Decision by
the Secretaries of Agriculture and Interior, the management direction for federal forest lands and aquatic resources
throughout the Pacific Northwest was extensively altered to
conserve ecosystems, species, economic viability, and social
values (Pipkin 1998).
The Forest Plan includes an explicit delineation of a
monitoring framework in the Standards and Guidelines
accompanying the Record of Decision. Monitoring was
given additional strength in the summary judicial decision
where it is stated: "Monitoring is central to the Plan's
validity. If it is not funded, or not done for any reason, the
plan will have to be reconsidered." (Dwyer 1994).
Similar to the south Florida restoration efforts, a cabinetlevel Interagency Steering Committee is the starting point
for federal participation in Northwest Forest Plan implementation. A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) outlines the role of this committee as well as regional committees of federal executives and non-federal advisors with
key roles in implementing the Plan. This MOD recognizes
the importance of developing a credible interagency monitoring program, through the efforts of a Research and
Monitoring Group tasked with bringing an independent
science perspective to intergovernmental forums and activities (Pipkin 1998).
Ecological Aspects _ _ _ _ __
The influence of hydrological and geochemical factors on
both Everglades and lower Colorado ecosystems is widely
recognized. Beginning in the early 1900's, river regulation
and channel modification projects brought about a need for
understanding the dynamics of water flow in the Colorado
River. Because of this, a series of hydrological gaging stations was established and has produced a long-term record
of this important variable influencing the lower Colorado
River environment. Colorado River salinity is also closely
monitored, due largely to concerns about the quality of
water delivered for use in the United States and Mexico.
Hydrological and salinity monitoring records are thus available for ecological monitoring projects in riparian forest
ecosystems.
Questions about whether the river's hydrology and salinity influence the riparian forest community were clarified
by demonstrating the direct association of the river, the
floodplain groundwater system, and plant communities
dominated by riparian trees and shrubs (Busch et al. 1992,
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999
Busch and Smith 1995). Adding an element of ecological
complexity, exotic vegetation and fire also interact to alter
Colorado River floodplain ecosystem structure and processes (Busch 1995, Smith et al. 1998). A systematic monitoring strategy for Grand Canyon riparian vegetation has
been articulated (National Research Council 1994). Elsewhere along the lower Colorado River, periodic mapping
of floodplain forests has been conducted (Younker and
Andersen 1986).
Work on south Florida ecosystems is similar to that
conducted along the lower Colorado River with respect to
the utilization for ecological studies of an extensive hydrological record generated during the era of development, and
more recent restoration (Busch et al. 1998). This research
has been extended to an examination of the linkages of
pineland and hardwood communities to hydrological factors
within the Everglades ecosystem (Ewe et al. In press). The
effects of fire (Gunderson and Snyder 1994) and exotic
vegetation (White 1994) are substantial in forested environments within the Everglades. Accordingly, much of the
information on the status and trends of woody vegetation
within these environments comes from monitoring associated with fire and exotic vegetation management programs.
Monitoring of species-habitat relationships has furthered
the development oflandscape models to support Everglades
restoration programs (DeAngelis et al. 1998). However,
status and trend determinations based on modeled ecological relationships remain problematic due to the lack of adequate baseline information on topography and vegetation.
Although anthrl.yogenic perturbation ofthe environment
is a common theme in each of the ecosystem initiatives
considered, the Northwest Forest Plan differs from the
others in the direct effects that human actions have on
terrestrial systems. Human influence in the form of forest
management occurs against a backdrop of biogeochemistry
and disturbance like that of the other two ecosystems.
Where reregulation of flows in the Colorado River and the
Everglades is envisioned as the principal means of ecosystem restoration, forestry practices under the Forest Plan
have been revised sharply from those in place through much
of this century. This revision has resulted in a system
designed to manage across broad landscapes for ecological
complexity and a broad array of goods and services (Kohm
and Franklin 1997) and has produced a correspondingly
intricate set of ecosystem factors relevant to monitoring.
Because of the Forest Plan's roots in the impasse over
threatened species, the status and trends of northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet populations were assigned
the initial priority in the Plan's system of effectiveness
monitoring (Mulder et al. In press). Given the importance of
late-successional and old-growth forests to these and other
species, monitoring of forest vegetation was also accorded
high priority (Hemstrom et al. In press). These monitoring
elements are currently being implemented, while monitoring of elements involving arguably greater ecological complexity (aquatic and riparian ecosystems, forest biodiversity) remain in the planning and development stage.
Certain basic components are integrated by design in each
of the Forest Plan monitoring programs (Mulder et al. In
press). The late successional/old growth monitoring module
is the fundamental source of vegetation cover information
for each of the other population- or ecosystem-based modules.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999
Trends in the monitored systems are assumed to have a
direct or indirect linkage to the status of forest vegetation.
Furthermore, there is an assumption that the relationships of species and habitats to forest landscape parameters
can be simulated and predicted using ecological models.
Thus, a status and trend detection system is envisioned
where the level of population monitoring would be reduced
in favor of monitoring habitat, with habitat source data
originating in the forest vegetation monitoring program.
The development of a model-based trend detection system
must await the clarification of habitat relationships before
models can be derived and verified. This capability may
presently exist for the northern spotted owl, but most of
the other monitoring elements require additional development. In this respect, Northwest Forest Plan monitoring
lags behind the potential demonstrated by system simulations developed to support Everglades restoration
(DeAngelis et al. 1994).
An explicit statement of the steps required to design
monitoring programs was developed for the Northwest Forest Plan (Mulder et al. In press). The steps are:
• state the goals of the monitoring program
• identify the environmental stressors relating to management goals
• develop a conceptual model linking relevant ecosystem
components
• identify candidate indicators most responsive to environmentalstressors
• estimate the status and trends of the indicators
• generate expected values for indicator variables
• link monitoring results to decision making
Although seemingly straight-forward, it has proven necessary to revisit these steps during monitoring plan development to assure that the process remains focused. Moreover,
explicit articulation of the plan development and implementation process has proven critical to making progress toward
stated goals.
Nowhere does an explicit statement of intent apply better
than to the development of a conceptual framework for
monitoring. Attempts to develop monitoring programs for
ecosystem ini tia tives have stagnated in the absence of sound
conceptual models. The conceptual model for Forest Plan
aquatic and riparian environments provides an example
describing ecosystem attributes pertinent to monitoring
(Fig. 1). The model portrays a physical landscape template
that varies approximately at the scale of the biogeographic
provinces comprising the Forest Plan region. The model also
describes upslope, riparian, and steam channel subsystems
and the degree of influence that these watershed subsystems have on each other. General and key ecosystem
processes are specified, the latter set being the source of
indicators for monitoring status and trend. The influence of
anthropogenic and natural stressors on ecosystem processes
is taken into account in selecting indicators, as is the influence of habitat related processes and stressors on riparian
and aquatic biota. Although seemingly elaborate, this model
is a highly-generalized depiction of a complex system. Models like this have served to focus dialogue at all stages of
Forest Plan monitoring program development. It is likely
that problems with the logical coherence of other monitoring
241
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Floodplain
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Watershed
Subsystems
Scouring, depDsition, input of
wood, channel migration
Organic (wDod) input, erosion
Delivery Df chern icals &:
nutrients
Chemicallnutrient
turnover
Insolation, shading
FloDding, drought
Sediment &: wood
delivery
Heat delivery
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Water delivery
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dynamics
Enegyexchange
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Deposition, erosion, transport
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delivery
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Hydrological cycle
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Beat delivery
Energy exchange
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Fire, insects, p;athogens,
predation
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com m un it}" structural
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growth, mortality
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+/-
Precipitation, flooding, drought
Man wasting, erosion-, debris
flows
Fire, insects, pathogens
Water storate &: yield
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Water storage &: yield
Sediment production &:
tran sport
Wood production &:
transport
Stressors
Na/ural influences
Hydrological cycle
Hydrological cycle
Soil cyclc
Vegetation succession,
growth, mortality
Kev orocesses
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Generalorocesses
Forest management, m'ining, waste
disposal
Dredging, filling, forest
management
FDrest management
Diversion, impoundment
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Forest management
Forest management, grazing,
Riparian Reserves
Roads, mining, flooding
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Diversions, impoundment,
forest management
Roads, mining, forest
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Figure 1.-A conceptual model for monitoring the effectiveness of the Northwest Forest Plan in restoring aquatic and riparian ecosystems,
Geology
Climate
Topography
Province 1
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Landscape
Template
programs (National Research Council 1994) could be circumvented by specifying a clearer conceptual framework.
Conceptual Aspects
Each of the ecosystem initiatives evaluated here has
embraced the concept of adaptive management wherein
ecological monitoring plays a pivotal role (Holling 1978).
Under this concept, the status of the resource condition
monitored is dependent upon stressors that are affected by
land management practices (Fig. 2). Land management
policy and practices are also affected by regulatory policy
and practice. Feedback affecting both land management and
regulatory policy comes directly from the monitoring and
research programs that are integral to ecosystem initiative
implementation. Indeed, it has been pointed out that monitoring programs themselves must be adaptive to some degree to account for obstacles that limit the ability to design
long-term monitoring programs in the face of unpredictable
changes that are certain to occur in the future (Ringold et al.
1996).
Despite the wide philosophical acceptance of such adaptive approaches to ecosystem management, case studies
reveal few instances where management uncertainty has
been successfully resolved by adaptive management
(Walters 1997). However, most monitoring programs are
not well-established considering the time lags associated
wi th biological and physical ecosystem restoration responses.
Given the minimum 50 year life envisioned for the Forest
Plan, we are still near the beginning of the process of
monitoring the effects of altered land management policy
and practice. Assuming that fledgling monitoring programs
can become institutionalized, adaptive management will
have a chance to more fully serve as a unifying theme for
regional ecosystem initiatives.
Status and trend detection for the Forest Plan adopted a
three-phase approach utilizing implementation, effectiveness, and validation monitoring (Tuchman et al. 1996). With
the acceptance of such a phased approach within federal
land management agencies (Noss and Cooperrider 1994),
this monitoring program structure has been accepted as a
part of the Plan. A similar monitoring framework is integrated into experimental water release programs for the
Grand Canyon. Such program elements have been less wellarticulated for Everglades ecosystem monitoring. Concerns
have arisen over certain monitoring conventions embodied
in this type of monitoring approach. Potential problems have
been pointed out with the use of ecological indicators to
overcome ecosystem complexity, and with scale in stressorresponse modeling designs (Morrison and Marcot 1995, Lee
and Bradshaw 1998). Despite this, Forest Plan monitoring
programs generally conform with broadly-recognized design
recommendations relative to sampling and scaling, trend
detection, the identification ofstressors, and specification of
uncertainty (Dixon et al. 1998).
It is presently somewhat unclear how monitoring for any
of the three initiatives fits within national or international
moni toring frameworks (Bricker and Ruggiero 1998). Due to
the limited distribution and specialized nature of the forested environment in south Florida and the lower Colorado
River floodplain regions, a lack of fit with national and
international forest monitoring programs would not be
surprising. Aspects of Forest Plan monitoring are thought
to be consistent with comprehensive national evaluations
of natural resources within the United States (Mulder et al.
In press). However, explicit linkages to national programs
such as Forest Health Monitoring or the Forest Inventory
and Analysis (Lewis et al. 1996) have not been detailed. One
of the great challenges in framing national monitoring
programs is their relevance to monitoring of important
regional initiatives. Beyond this, extending the consistency
of national and regional programs to the local or project scale
is another consideration that must be more coherently
addressed.
Summary and Conclusions
Figure 2.-The monitoring and the adaptive management process for the Northwest Forest Plan.
The three regional ecosystem initiatives share similar
levels of public support stemming to a great degree from the
solutions they offer for the preservation ofthreatened vertebrate populations. While addressing focal species that are
thought to be imperiled, all three initiatives have gone
beyond simple population and habitat monitoring to include evaluations of the status and trends of a broad range
of ecosystem indicators. Although each initiative has an
extensive legal and regulatory background, Northwest Forest Plan monitoring appears to have the strongest explicit
linkage to decisions of the courts.
Hydrological and geochemical factors have been recognized as the primary drivers in Everglades and lower Colorado
River ecosystems, including important forested environments within these systems. The overlay of terrestrial land
management upon natural ecosystem processes is stronger
for the Forest Plan that for the other initiatives. Partly
because of this, evaluation of the status and trends of late
successional and old growth forest vegetation is at the heart
of the Plan's monitoring program. Predictive monitoring
using modeled relationships is an important future step for
Forest Plan monitoring, but the development of essential
system simulations lags behind that of the Everglades
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999
243
Regulatory
Practices
Stressors
Land
Management
Practices
Resource
Condition
Regulatory
Policies
Monitoring
&Research
Land
Management
Policy
initiative. Despite this, the basis for ecological monitoring is
well-developed and understood by those responsible for
implementing the Forest Plan. Conceptual models depicting
important ecosystem attributes, such as the relationship of
forested upland to riparian and aquatic system components,
has proven critical to the development and implementation of the Forest Plan monitoring program. Without attention to conceptual frameworks, monitoring programs have
tended to founder.
The importance of ecological monitoring to strategies
embracing adaptive management is recognized in each of
the initiatives considered here. Given the time lags associated with management-induced ecosystem change, it is
premature to expect fledgling monitoring programs to exert
strong direction in land management decisions early in the
course of such major ecosystem initiatives. With greater
maturity of monitoring systems and databases, the influence of monitoring programs is expected to increase as is
our understanding of the role of regional initiative monitoring in national monitoring frameworks.
Acknowledgments
Insightful reviews of manuscript drafts were graciously
provided by Gary Benson, Craig Palmer, and Joel Trexler.
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