This file was created by scanning the printed publication. Errors identified by the software have been corrected; however, some errors may remain. Information for Forest Sector POlicy 1 Klaus Janz2 Reidar Persson 3 Abstract-Information for forest resources management, conservation and development at national/state level is often insufficient. At the same time existing forest resources information is poorly used. This is particularly but not exclusively ·true of developing countries. There are several reasons for this. Institutions for the formulation and implementation of forest sector policies are weak. Dialogue between producers and users of information is insufficient or absent. Information gathering is seen as a merely technical problem. For the reasons mentioned the mechanism to formulate the questions to be answered in the political process are often absent. The visible result that forest inventory specialists can often observe is that inventory fmdings are simply not used. It is proposed that increased emphasis is needed on interaction between policy development and implementation on one side and information gathering on the other side. For this an analysis function is needed that organizes existing information from various sources, has knowledge of data sources and data quality and provides a capability to undertake ad hoc studies on request. This function should also serve as a link between data collection and data use. By assisting users (public and private policy/decision makers) with tailor-made information and studies on request it acquires knowledge about the problems and needs of the user community. By interacting with data collecting organizations it can feed back to those its knowledge about current and emerging information needs. It can thus help identifying gaps in data collection as well as research needs. Analysis of consequences of political action or non-action is presented as example of a demanding use of forest sector information. Obstacles to relevant information gathering and smooth interaction are discussed. Among them the attitude of governments and of various stakeholders to consider information as a potentially dangerous instrument of power. The Problem Information for forest resources management, conservation and development at national/state level is often insufficient. At the same time existing forest resources information is poorly used. There are several reasons for Ipaper presented at the North American Science Symposium: Toward a Unified Framework for Inventorying and Monitoring Forest Ecosystem Resources, Guadalajara, Mexico, November 1-6,1998. 2Klaus Janz is Project Manager for a Capacity Building Program in Forest Policy Formulation and related Data Collection at the National Board of Forestry, S-55183 Jonkoping,Sweden. Phone: +46-36-15 57 27; Fax: +4636-1661 70; e-mail: klaus.janZ@Svo.se 3Reidar Persson is Assistant Director General, Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR, P. O. Box 6596 JKPWB, Jakarta 10065 Indonesia. Phone: +62-251-622622 or 622070, ext 110; Fax: +62-251-622 100; e-mail: r. persson@cgnet.com USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 this apparently paradox situation. Institutions for the formulation and implementation of forest sector policies are weak. Dialogue between producers and users of information is insufficient or absent. Information gathering is seen as a merely technical problem. For the reasons mentioned there are often no mechanisms to formulate the questions that need to be answered in the political process. The visible result that forest inventory specialists frequently observe is that inventory findings are simply not used. This is in essence the problem that my co-author and I take up in this paper. We restrict the discussion to the national and state levels and we think of situations in developing countries. But much of what we say has validity for developed countries as well. Our views are based on observations made during many years' national and international work in the field of forest inventbry and forest policy. The message we want to convey is that we forest inventory people have to broaden our field of interest and get more involved in the process of forest policy making. The need for a strong linkage between forest inventory on one side and forestry planning and policy making in a country on the other side has been discussed on several occasions (FAO 1994 and Janz 1993). A forest inventory without use or a forest policy without supporting data, serve little purpose. A close integration ofthe two activities is most desirable for the development of the forestry sector. It is also important to highlight that the task of inventory experts is not to make policy or plans but to support planners and policy makers in making informed decisions. In an ideal world, inventories will be designed in anticipation of problems to be solved and not otherwise; and planners would make decisions using forest resources information. What we say is nothing new. The Rio Conference and its follow-up processes have highlighted the shortcomings mentioned. AGENDA 21, in its CHAPTER 11, problem area D, has given the following diagnosis: "Assessment and systematic observations are essential components of long-term planning, for evaluating effects, quantitatively and qualitatively, and. for rectifying inadequacies. This mechanism, however, is one of the often neglected aspects of forest resources, management, conservation and development. In many cases, even the basic information related to the area and type of forests, existing potential and volume of harvest is lacking. In many developing countries, there is a lack of structures and mechanisms to carry out these functions. There is an urgent need to rectify this situation for a better understanding of the role and importance of forests and to realistically plan for their effective conservation, management, regeneration, and sustainable development." The UN-CSD Intergovernmental Panel on Forests (IPF) has formulated demands on National Forestry Programs 139 and national systems for collection of data. In one of he relevant paragraphs we read: B1(b) (The PaneL.) "encouraged all countries, where appropriate and step by step, to improve national forest resources assessments, forest statistics and the capacity to analyze and make proper use of forest resources information, and encouraged donor countries and international organizations to support these initiatives;" We can note an emphasis on linking assessment with long-term planning and evaluating effects and on improving the capacity to analyze and make proper use of forest resources information. Ideally, gathering, organizing, disseminating, analyzing and using information should come in one logical chain in which each link is made to fit the others. Why is Information Needed? At national and state level the need for information is almost exclusively related to the formulation and implementation offorest sector policies and strategies and to monitoring their impacts. The political process involves a number of steps which all require information: Public debate, problem identification, formulating options for political action and analyzing the consequences of such action. Following these steps informed decision-making and, finally, implementation can take place. Stakeholders and the general public can only participate in the process, if reasonably correct and complete information exists and is readily available. A good information base is, therefore, a requirement of democracy. In a good political process much attention is given to consensus building. Effective implementation of a political program can hardly be thought of without consensus among the stakeholders regarding the main program components. It is easiest to build such consensus stepwise: Consensus on basic facts regarding the forest resource and the utilization of forests; consensus on the nature of the major political problems; consensus on which options there are to solve the problems; conse'nsus on the consequences of different political programs. All this requires information of increasing complexity. The critical importance of information for a successful political process has been highlighted by one of the intersessional activities of the UN-CSD Intergovernmental Panel on Forests, namely the Intergovernmental Workshop on The Process of Consensus Building, held under a SwedishUgandan Initiative 1996 (Sida & Ministry of Nat. Res., Uganda 1996). The Synthesis Report from this workshop states: "There cannot be consensus unless the competing claims on land are understood and agreed upon by the interested parties. Understanding these claims expedites convergence of opinion and hence orientation towards common vision and goals. This implies that all the basic facts have to be known and presented in a transparent manner before decisions that are acceptable to all and can stand the test of time, can be made." The same report also notes "The process of consensus building ... must always be based on good knowledge of the actual land uses and on the different options for future use of land." 140 What Information is Needed? Information gathering should be demand driven. What is the demand, from where does it come and how do we know it? At national and state levels it is the political process in a wide sense that generates most of the demand for information. A good way to approach the question 'what information is needed' is to examine what information we need to analyze consequences of political action. Such analysis is very demanding in terms of information. What satisfies the needs for analysis of consequences will satisfy many or most other needs with regard to formulating policies and strategies and to planning their implementation. Analysis of Consequences Analysis of consequences is a necessary part of the political process. It considers optional action programs that have been designed and answers the question what happens if a given program is implemented. Box 1 intends to illustrate what this means. In conjunction with an analysis ofthe kind described here a number of questions will also arise related to stakeholders and their driving forces: Who are the stakeholders, how will in particular forest owners respond to various changes such as changes in wood prices, other prices, taxation, training, extension service, financial support, progress in agricultural techniques, changes in the market for agricultural products and roadnet? In a country with much private forest ownership, how will the response from the owners differ between young and old, big and small, those living where the forest is and those living far away and those having forestry as their dominating source of income and those living from other sources, mainly? How will local populations be affected by changes in the forest? How are decisions made in a village? Some of these questions are not usually considered to be the subject of forest administrations. They cut across sectors, and there we have one of the more serious problems with information gathering for forest sector policy. The analysis of consequences as outlined here is complex and very demanding in terms of base data and techniques. It is in this context the most difficult questions to data collection will be formulated. Certainly information gathering for forestry planning is far more than forest inventory. We, the forest inventory community, can only cover our part of the whole. But we should be more aware of the linkages and more involved in dialogue vertically, with politicians and those who do things in the forest, and horizontally, with other sectors of society, including research. Monitoring An important activity is monitoring the result of new policies and strategies. Here we encounter the problem of measuring change. The object of interest may be area change, e.g. area of plantations, or change in activities, such as silvicultural or harvesting activities. In our example above the interest will be changes in key characteristics of young forests. In the long run changes in volume or biomass USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 Box 1.-Analysis of consequences In the political process a problem is identified. Let us assume it is poor status of young forests. At a later stage in the process options for solutions will be designed, e.g. different programs to promote the establishing of better young forests. Programs may incl ude information campaigns, legislation, research, as well as financial incentives. There is then a need to estimate the consequences of optional programs. A simple example: Politicians design programs for improving the quality of young forests and wish to know the wood supply possibilities at different points in the future assuming implementation of the programs. The quality of regeneration measures can be influenced by forest policy tools such as extension services, implementation of legal regulations, as well as subsidies and taxation. Revamp those political tools and make assumptions as to their impact on various types of forest owners. Study previous experience in this field. Use forest research to find realistic relationships between type and quality of regeneration measures on one side and biological response to regeneration measures on the other side. are of interest. Certainly some of the observations needed for such monitoring are not in the mainstream of forest inventory, but will require quite special techniques. The developing country environment will call for particularly creative approaches. What is Wrong? _ _ _.______ There is agreement that the political process requires a solid basis of information. Without this the seeking of political solutions is blind, and working for consensus has no meaning. In reality however, the following is often the case: • public debate is ill-informed and therefore easily mislead; • problem identification is not based on relevant facts or on studies based on such facts; • the same is true for the specification of options for political action; • analyses of consequences suffer from insufficient knowledge base or are not at all undertaken; • information related to forest resources is kept in confidential government files and not .used to promote informed public debate or informed cooperation across sectors of society; • finally we cannot take for granted that knowledge-based policy formulation is what a given government wants. The agenda of the powerful can be quite something else. National Forest Inventories are used to collect information about a country's forest resources. The information produced is strategic in nature, serving planning at country or state level. Thus the political process can be said to be a main client of National Forest Inventories. Insight into this process and its information needs should govern design and information content of the inventories. This, however, is seldom the case. We observe that a clear link to national forest policy is missing. The design and information content of such inventories are often influenced by ideas from preinvestment surveys, from traditional forest inventories in developed countries, from management plan inventories etc. The reason for undertaking a national forest inventory may be that a donor is willing to provide funds for it. In USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 another case the background to undertaking a national forest inventory may be a forest policy problem such as deforestation. To fight the problem is a complex matter of many sectors of economy and involves changing living conditions and behaviors of many. There is a general notion that 1I\.ore information is needed to attack the problem. In this situation a forest inventory is asked for as a one shot operation and without formulating the questions that have to be answered in the political process. The inventory in such a case may give a welcome impression of activity and may be attractive to donors but has little chance to produce the results needed. Yet another common problem is that forest inventory is done in one office and production and trade statistics in another, with insufficient interaction between them. The result is that we may have statistics about wood utilization, but don't know how much standing volume is needed to make up for it. There is no translation between the results of forest yield studies and utilization statistics. Those who have tried to compare the two know that the differences are significant. Findings from some targeted studies can confirm the picture just given: In conjunction with the global forest resources assessment 1990 FAO examined the status of forest inventories in tropical countries and summarized its findings in table 1. Table 1.-State of forest inventory in the tropics in 1990 Number of countries with forest resources data at national level Total number of countries considered Forest area information No assessment One assessment Abefore 1980 ),;1980-1990 More than one assessment Information on Plantations Volume & biomass Harvesting & use 90 3 39 27 21 24 18 15 Adapted from FAO 1993 141 The FAD report (1993) presents the following comments on the table: • There is considerable variation among regions with respect to completeness and quality of the information. • There is considerable variation in the timeliness of the information. The data is about ten years old, on average. • There are some countries which have carried out more than one assessment. These countries, however, have not used appropriate techniques, such as continuous forest inventory design, for change assessment. • Only a few countries have reliable estimates of actual plantations, harvest and utilization, although such estimates are essential for national forestry planning and policy-making. • No country has carried out a national forest inventory containing information that can be used to generate reliable estimates of the total woody biomass volume and its changes. Table 1 refers to the status in 1990. Since that time forest inventory activity in developing countries as a whole has dropped further (communication from FAD). Co-author Persson has analyzed the system for collecting forest information and its relation to important policy issues in some Asian countries. The following are highlights from the findings. -National Inventory: Most countries analyzed do have some kind of National Forest Inventory. They are rarely continuous inventories. They are very often designed to fit a special technique. -Areas: The area information is often based on remote sensing. Often visual interpretation of LANDSAT-TM is being used. With this technique it is difficult to identify areas smaller than 25 ha. Available information is often more than ten years old. -Area of plantations: In most countries plantations are thought to become the main source of wood in the future. Ambitious plantation programs are often taking place. But hardly any country has good information about plantations. This is because plantations are often made in small lots and in the form of lines or belts. The standard remote sensing techniques normally used for inven tory cannot identify such plantations. Virtually nothing is known about growth and yield of plantations. Although plantations are often the main thrust of the forest policy no monitoring systems are in place that can tell the success of plantation programs. -Changes: In most countries deforestation and rapid changes in land use are considered to be important forestry problems. Nevertheless reliable information about the changes taking place is rare. To learn about the size and the character of changes requires continuous inventory. But most inventories so far have been unrelated one-shot undertakings. -Fuelwood production: In most countries fuelwood is the dominating forest product. In spite of this hardly anything is known about fuelwood removals. The difference between the highest and the lowest guesstimate in a country can have the magnitude 4: 1. Technically it is very difficult to collect information about fuelwood. What is consumed is biomass of 142 which fuelwood is just a part. The use of biomass and its composition vary also over the year and between districts. -Production of industrial wood: Very little is known about the production of industrial wood. The figures given are often planned production (Annual Allowable Cut). Actual production is often much higher. -Non-wood forest products: Occasionally we notice sca ttered sta tis tics about non -wood forest products reaching the market. However, non-wood forest products playa major role locally for the subsistence of many rural people. The where and what and how much of this and the relationships with other land uses are in most cases unknown. What is known is fragmentary and rarely helpful for policy-making. -Biological diversity: This topic receives high attention in public debate. Nevertheless there is little systematic information about status and change in this field. Research is going on and perhaps practical methods will be developed. But will the methods be used? At present even good information about forest area is lacking in most countries although methods to estimate areas have been known for hundreds of years. -Monitoring: Most countries have no systems for following up what the impact is of different political measures. We have already mentioned plantations. Their area, type, success rate, growth rate and intended and actual use are poorly known or unknown. Further examples are changes in quality of the forests, and reduction of illegal fellings. -Supply driven information: The inventory method used often decides which information is collected. The method is chosen before the questions are formulated. -In summary: There is a wide gap between information needed and information actually collected. Decisions about which information to collect seem often to be based on tradition. Needs assessments are rare. In most countries the lack of information and knowledge makes it difficult to formulate policies and strategies. It is rarely known to what degree policies and programs are being implemented. What Can be Done? Progress requires a commitment by the Government towards sustainable development of the forestry sector. The policy-making and the strategy development that emanate from such commitment will generate the questions that should be answered by national forest inventories and other providers of information. An Analysis Function Much of what has been said above about information needs and about shortcomings in meeting them points at the need for an analysis function. In the process of policymaking a function is needed that organizes existing information from various sources, has knowledge of data sources and data quality and provides a capability to undertake ad hoc studies on request. This function should also serve as a link between data collection and data use. By assisting users (policy/decision makers) with tailor-made information and studies on request it acquires knowledge about the problems and needs of the user community. By interacting with data collecting organizations it can feed USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 them with its knowledge about current and emerging information needs. It can thus help identifying gaps in data collection as well as research needs. The unit could even anticipate policy issues or problems and discuss them with all stakeholders and provide timely support to the inventory unit in making meaningful survey designs and later in effective use of collected data. Main aims of an analysis unit can be summarized in the following points: • Support to policy development • Support to policy implementation and evaluation • Contribution to the development of national knowledge systems Box 2 shows typical tasks/activities of an analysis function Institutional Set-up for an Aanalysis Function-The institutional set-up has importance for the possibilities of an analysis function to work well. In order to create a working unit for this purpose is usually possible to use existing organizational structures. What is needed may often be to concentrate scattered existing activities in one place. It seems recommendable to assign the tasks described to an identified group with sufficient critical mass to allow building up of institutional memory. It seems also advantageous to associate the unit with an institution that has some degree of autonomy. This may facilitate the interaction with a wider group including inventory unit, statistical office, policy makers, planners and other stakeholders involved in or likely to contribute to solving a problem under discussion. What has been described here is not a theoretical construction. Sweden has practical experience of an analysis function since several decades. Experience tells us that longterm political commitment is needed to make such a function working well, that it takes decades to build up necessary know-how and that institutional memory is important. ....•. An example of Policy Studies for a District of India-Singh (1998) has outlined Terms of Reference for what he calls an "Analysis and Evaluation Unit" for India. It should be stressed that there is no request from the Government ofIndia behind this. The value of the outline is that an experienced person has made an attempt to describe the aims and activities of such a unit and the implications of establishing it in a developing country. Singh has worked for more than 20 years in FAO's forest resources assessment program and is now at Harvard's Center for International Development. In his paper he presents the following example of an analysis of consequences of political options for a civil district in India. Building of scenarios at the national level in a large country like India is fraught with the danger of becoming too general. The situation differs from district to district (and village to village) in relation to fuelwood and fodder. It may be noted that in 1991 of the 413 districts, only 40 districts had a forest cover of more than 50 per cent, while 187 districts had forest cover less than 10%. This shows the need for a location specific approach. Keeping the above facts in view, a model study was implemented in the Adilabad district of Andhra Pradesh State, which has still today 40% of the forest cover. The purpose was to derive some policy inferences from the study. Fortunately for Adilabad district, comprehensive forest inventory data for the years 1973 and 1995 is available. A set USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999 Box 2.-Tasks of an Analysis Function • Create and maintain an overview of forestry related information that may be scattered in many hands. Example: information on supply and demand of forest products and services • Undertake ad hoc studies to support formulation and implementation of forest policy, jn particular analyses of consequences of political action • Based on user contacts identify information needs not covered • Based on contacts with producers of information serve users with tailor-made information, including information from multiple sources • Ensure comparability between information coming from different sources • Compile and disseminate standard forest sector related information, e.g. in a statistical yearbook • Take responsibility for international exchange of information of four scenarios was studied using the available forest resources and socio-economic data and the FAO Area Production Model. Effort was made to make the assumptions as realistic as possible. The model uses simulation and represents a-low-sophistication thinking aid for planning and for discussion with stakeholders. Main assumptions of the model are the following: Scenario Supply -side Assumptions Demand -side Assumptions 00 No change No change 04 - Improvement of wood production on agricultural land; and - Establishment of 100 000 ha of fuel wood plantations No change 30 34 No change - Improvement of wood production on agricultural land; and - Establishment of 100 000 ha of fuel wood plantations - Reduction of population growth rate; and - Reduction of 2% per year of woody biomass demand per capita - Reduction of population growth rate; and - Reduction of 2% per year of woody biomass demand per capita The result of analysis using Area Production Model is presented in figure 1. As a basis for more detailed discussion the following conclusions could be drawn from the study: i) Even in a district like Adilabad with a forest cover of 40% today, a long-term program is essential to balance the supply with the demand. In the best case the time is about 25 years. ii) Both increasing production and controlling consumption are necessary. This suggests the need for intersectoral integration in the local development planning. iii) The program for forest plantations must be high yielding to achieve self-reliance in the shortest time. iv) The establishment and development of plantations must be secured with people participation. Control of grazing and illicit removals are a must. v) Adequate finance on a 143 0.0 i-+-t-t~l-t-t-+++-t-t~l-t-t-+++-H-t-I-t-+-+-t-t-H I -0.5 -1.0 I -1.5 -2.0 J -2.5 -3.0 I -3.5 Year 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 Figure 1.-Fuelwood deficit (million m3 ) continuing and long-term basis must be secured. This will call for an effective, creditworthy and efficient management environment. In a next round of discussions one may introduce issues such as substitution of other fuels for wood, driving forces for tree plantation, ownership and tenureship. Users of the model will have to quantify the implications of such issues. Conclusion (iii), above, may lead to questioning the desirability of single-purpose fuelwood plantations. Who wants them, who protects them, which competing claims on land are there, and which alternatives can be thought of? Monitoring The need for change assessment has been pointed out, e.g. to monitor deforestation, land degradation and the success rates of plantations. In developing countries continuous forest inventory using permanent field plots has usually failed. Therefore remote sensing based approaches seem to be the only viable solution. The need to observe many, even non-traditional variables and the need for high resolution (plantations in small lots) pose a challenge in this connection. In some countries comparisons are being made between satellite data taken at intervals. FAO has refined and successfully applied this technique. It can furnish reliable time series of forest cover state and change estimates for any unit of area (FAO, 1996). However, there are many pitfalls. To really produce good information requires good organization (e.g. data from same season, same person to interpret all compared data sets from one locality in one operation). Ongoing and Planned Activities (1) In 1996 the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) has adopted a training program "Capacity building in developing forest sector policies and 144 strategies and related organization and collection of data". One training course per year of5-7 weeks' duration has been arranged, addressed to people in the interface between forest policy and related data collection. The experience from the program is good. Interest in developing countries is growing. The program has now even a follow-up component. (2) Intersessional workshops in the framework of the UNCSD Intergovernmental Panel (now Forum) on Forests: A Uganda-Sweden workshop on Consensus Building has been held in 1996 and a corresponding Vietnam-Sweden workshop on Knowledge-based Forestry is planned for 1999. The workshops have significance for the theme of this paper. (3) FAO in its Global Forest Resources Assessment Program distinguishes four components, one of them being capacity building to "bolster countries ability to acquire their own assessments of forest resources and use these results in developing national policies and strategies". The need to link assessment with policy is clearly expressed (FAO 1997). Conclusions ------------------------------We can conclude by noting that there are still many shortcomings regarding the supply of relevant information to planning within the forest sector. Above all there is too little dialogue between inventory and policy making. But awareness is raising and there are now a number of promising activities and approaches that can improve the situation. We hope this exposure of ideas can help increasing the attention given to the problems addressed and stimulate further actors to contribute to their solution. Also we would very much welcome making some new contacts with people who work in the same direction and with whom we can join forces. Literature Cited F AO, 1993: Forest Resources Assessment 1990. Tropical countries. Forestry Paper No 112. 101 pages FAO, 1994: A Review ofFAO's Achievements in Forest Resources Assessment and a Strategy for Future Development. Based on an Auto-Review by KD. Singh and K Janz, Forestry Department. 39 pages FAO, 1996: Forest Resources Assessment 1990 - Survey of tropical forest cover and study of change processes. Forestry Paper No 130. 152 pages FAO, 1997: A Strategic Plan for Global Forest Resources Assessments. Forestry Department, 11 December 1997. 44 pages Janz, K, 1993: World forest resources assessment 1990: an overview. Unasylva No 174, Vol. 44. 7 pages Sida (Sweden) & Ministry ofNatural Resources, Forest Department (Uganda), 1996: The Process of Consensus Building. The Swedish-Ugandan Initiative. Intergovernmental Workshop in Stockholm of Experts on Sustainable Forestry and Land Use, 1418 October 1996. Vol. III: Synthesis Report. 44 pages Singh, KD., 1998: Establishment of an Analysis and Evaluation Unit (as a part of country capacity building in forest resources assessment). Manuscript, 5 pp. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-12. 1999