Factors Influencing Recruitment of Forage Plants in Arid Karoo Shrublands, South Africa Suzanne J. Milton W. R. J. Dean Abstract—We recorded mortality and natality in populations of long-lived shrubs over five years in arid rangelands of the southern Karoo, South Africa and studied natural regeneration and survival of sown seeds in cleared plots protected or exposed to grazing. Very little recruitment occurred in undisturbed shrub populations. Germination was a function of seed availability and of autumn rainfall, whereas recruitment was influenced by proximity of seedlings to established shrubs and by follow-up rainfall in spring and summer. On the basis of these observations, we propose a simple model to predict the circumstances under which rangeland forage plants may be restored by resting, reseeding, clearing or combinations of these procedures. 800 m above sea level) in the arid shrublands of the southern Karoo, South Africa (Milton and others 1992). The area receives a variable rainfall (167 mm p.a., range 50-400 mm over 92 years) that peaks in autumn (March-April). Soils are fine and alkaline and the vegetation is low growing (<0.8 m) and clumped with a projected canopy cover <25% (Figs 1a & 1b). Rangeland at TKRC was in good condition (20,900 forage plants/ha). Adjoining ranch 1 was in good condition and moderately grazed (about 6 ha/sheep). Ranch 2 was in poor condition, and although moderately stocked during the study period (7.5 ha/sheep), was still carrying too many There is a perceived need to increase the productivity and species diversity of overgrazed arid shrublands in the Karoo region of South Africa. Experience has shown that this goal cannot be achieved simply by resting or intensive browsing of range, because overgrazed shrublands are often dominated by long-lived shrubs that are distasteful to domestic livestock. Overgrazed shrubland may remain unsuitable for ranching for many years because the component species are long-lived and do not necessarily facilitate succession to alternative states (Westoby and others 1989). Partial clearing of existing vegetation to alter water and nutrient availability (Luken 1990), or re-seeding to establish indigenous forage species, could possibly increase carrying capacity or nature conservation value of such shrublands. This paper reports on the demography of shrub populations of the arid Karoo and on effects of weather, neighboring plants, microsites and grazing animals on the survival of seedlings. These preliminary observations provide a basis for assessing the feasibility of rehabilitating Karoo rangeland. Study Site and Methods The study was carried out at Tierberg Karoo Research Center (TKRC), from which domestic livestock were excluded, and on adjacent sheep ranches (33°10'S, 22°17'E, In: Roundy, Bruce A.; McArthur, E. Durant; Haley, Jennifer S.; Mann, David K., comps. 1994. Proceedings: wildland shrub and arid land restoration symposium; 1993 October 19-21; Las Vegas, NV. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-GTR-315. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station. Sue Milton and Richard Dean are Senior Research Officers with the Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa. Figure 1—(a) Arid shrubland at Tierberg Karoo Research Centre in the southern Karoo, South Africa. (b) Mixed species clumps of dwarf shrubs surrounded by bare ground. 216 sheep for the available forage (4,200 forage plants/ha). Indigenous steenbok (Raphicerus campestris: Bovidae) and hares (Lepus capensis: Leporidae) were present at all three sites at low densities (total biomass of mammalian herbi2 vores 135 kg/km ). left on the remainder of the plots. All seedlings on these plots were counted in April 1991, 1992 and 1993. Sowing Experiments A total of 700 seeds of each of the 3 shrub species and 700 seeds of a winter annual (Tetragonia echinata: Aizoaceae) were sown in March 1990 in the 50 vegetated monitoring plots and in the 20 cleared plots. Treatments were replicated as shown in Fig. 2. Germination and survival of seedlings emerging from the planted seeds were made 5 days after every rain event, and once monthly in the absence of rain. It was assumed that seedlings emerging in demarcated rows originated from sown seed. A further trial, using only O. sinuatum seeds, was initiated in April 1991. Approximately 100 seeds (1 g) were planted in and adjacent to each of 6 cleared plots on the heavily grazed sheep ranch. Three of these plots were in exclosures and three were in the surrounding area that was grazed by sheep. Flowering, Natality and Mortality Three common species of dwarf shrubs (all Asteraceae) were selected for study: deciduous broad-leaved Osteospermum sinuatum preferred by sheep, evergreen microphyllous Pteronia empetrifolia palatable to sheep, and evergreen microphyllous P. pallens which is toxic to sheep. All individuals in 50 permanent 5 x 5 m quadrats were measured (height, canopy diameter, basal stem diameter) and labelled in November 1988. They were subsequently monitored annually until December 1991. Throughout this time the plots were subjected to one of four different grazing treatments as shown in Fig. 2. Despite the partly pseudo-replicated sampling design, inferential statistics were used to test for site and treatment effects on growth, survival and natality. Weather Records and Soil Moisture Seedling Emergence and Survival in Natural Vegetation Rainfall, mean daily temperature maxima and minima, relative humidity and soil moisture data were collected by a data logger at TKRC. Relative soil moisture was measured using calibrated nylon sensors buried at 50 and 150 mm below the soil surface in one vegetated and one cleared plot. Emergence and survival of seedlings in natural vegetation was monitored in 100 wire hoops (160 mm diameter), two in each of 50 plots used for demographic monitoring. All seedlings in the hoops were recorded five days after each major rain event (>10 mm) and in dry periods, at 4-6 weekly intervals. Results Seedling Survival in Cleared Plots Flowering, Natality and Mortality Twenty plots in TKRC, 10 in exclosures and 10 open to grazing by indigenous mammals, were cleared of all vegetation in July 1989 by cutting plants at soil level. Cut plants were removed from 5 plots in each treatment and First flowering occurred at 2-3 years (5 mm b.d.) in O. sinuatum and at 3-5 years (>10 mm b.d.) in Pteronia spp. Sheep reduced flower production by 63% in O. sinuatum and by 68% in P. empetrifolia but had no effect on toxic P. pallens. The numbers of seedlings of a given species that emerged in a plot were related to the numbers of flowers (or seeds) of that species in the plot (Fig. 3). There was therefore little regeneration of palatable species where sheep removed most of the flowers. Over the 3 yr period (1988-1991) the annual turnover was <6% in all three species. Grazing had no effect on the natality : mortality ratio, and 88% of the 104 recorded fatalities were among seedlings. Background Seedling Emergence and Survival Seedlings emerged in early winter (April-June) when relative humidity was high and temperatures were low (Figs 4a & 4b). Although the emergence density of seedlings was related to pre-emergence rain, their survival was correlated (P < 0.001) with post-emergence rainfall (July-October). More seedlings emerged on the overgrazed ranch than elsewhere (P < 0.001) but the percentage that survived did not differ between sites or treatments (Fig. 4b). Survival averaged (mean ± SD) 3.0 ± 2.5% in 1989, 3.3 ± 2.0 in 1990 and 26.1 ± 5.2 in 1991. Most seedlings (86%) were of small (<0.5 mm) seeded Aizoaceae, the seeds of which Figure 2—Layout of exclosures, grazing and clearing treatments at Tierberg Karoo Research Centre (TKRC) and on adjacent sheep ranches. Exclo– sures on Argentina ranch were used only in the second seeding trial. 217 were dispersed from hygroscopic capsules during rain showers. However, on littered or vegetated microsites, 19% (247/1320) of emergent seedlings were species with large (>2 mm) wind dispersed seeds, compared with 7% (78/1056) of seedlings that emerged on bare soil. Clearing Experiments Clearing of vegetation reduced the rate at which moisture was lost from the upper 15 cm of the soil (Fig. 5). The species composition of seedlings emerging from naturally dispersed seeds on cleared plots was correlated (P < 0.001) with the cover composition of the vegetation on the plots prior to clearing. The distance between a seedling and the perimeter of the cleared plot influenced its chances of survival. Seedlings emerging 2-3 m from established plants survived at higher densities (P < 0.001), and reproduced earlier (P < 0.05) than seedlings that emerged closer to neighbours (Fig. 6). In the first sowing trial, more seedlings emerged on cleared (7.0 ± SD 9.5%) than on vegetated plots (3.9 ± SD 8.6%). Some of these shrub seedlings survived on cleared plots, but all shrub seedlings that emerged in vegetated plots died during their first summer (Fig. 7). No further shrub emergence occurred in the second autumn, but the winter annual (T. echinata) had many innately dormant seeds which emerged at higher densities in the second autumn (Fig. 7). The resultant plants set more seed in cleared than in vegetated plots (Table 1). In the second sowing trial, on the overgrazed ranch, 25 O. sinuatum seedlings emerged in vegetated plots and 92 emerged in cleared plots. Survival, after 2 years, was similar in vegetated (24%) and cleared (23%) plots. In the first sowing trial, emergence and survival of shrub seedlings, but not winter annuals, was greater on overgrazed Ranch 2 than elsewhere (Fig. 7). In the second sowing trial on the overgrazed ranch, 59 O. sinuatum seedlings emerged in grazed areas and 58 emerged in exclosures. After 2 years, survival in grazed plots (10%) was lower Figure 3—Relationships between densities of emerging seedlings and the number of flowers or seeds of three non-succulent shrubs and of succulent Mesembryanthema in the southern Karoo. Figure 4—(a) Rainfall, temperature range and humidity at Tierberg Karoo Research Centre in the southern Karoo, and (b) seedling emergence over four years in exclosures at TKRC (no sheep) and on adjoining sheep ranches. Figure 5—Soil moisture fluctuations at 150 mm below soil surface in undisturbed and cleared vegetation. Rain in millimeters per day. 218 Table 1—Numbers of seeds produced by a winter annual (Tetragonia echinata) grown in cleared and vegetated plots in exclosures and grazed rangeland in the southern Karoo. Means with shared superscripts do not differ significantly (ANOVA, P < 0.01). Number of plants Treatment Exclosure cleared Rangeland cleared Exclosure vegetated Rangeland vegetated 11 24 24 28 Seeds per plant Mean ± SD 6.36a 4.00ab 0.95b 1.21b 7.77 6.83 0.85 1.19 2 (X = 9.7, 1 df, P < 0.01) than in exclosures (36%). Seedlings in exclosures were larger (P < 0.001) than in plots grazed by sheep (Table 2). Discussion Implications of Low Turnover Rates for Management Figure 6—Box and whisker plot showing median, upper and lower quartiles and ranges of seedling densities at three years in undisturbed vegetation and in cleared plots at distances of 1, 2, and 3 m from neighboring plants. Karoo shrublands, in common with those in arid parts of the United States (McAuliffe 1988) and Australia (Eldridge and others 1990), are dominated by plants that live for decades or centuries. Population turnover rates are low. For this reason, compositional losses caused by overgrazing or resting will be very slow. Restoration of productivity or diversity to over-exploited arid shrubland within a human lifetime may require re-seeding and active management of herbivory, competition and microsites. Factors Influencing Forage Recruitment in Karoo Shrublands Defoliation and florivory reduces seedling recruitment in many Karoo plants (Milton 1992; Milton and Dean 1988, 1990b, 1993; van Breda and Barnard 1991). Few species of Karoo succulents (Esler and others 1992) and long-lived shrubs have innately dormant seeds. Such species rely on regular seed production for population perpetuation, and are therefore lost from overgrazed rangeland (Milton 1992; O’Connor 1991). By altering the growth rates of forage Table 2—Heights (mean ± one standard deviation) of one- and two-year-old Osteospermum sinuatum seedlings from seeds sown in Trial 2 on an overgrazed Karoo shrubland. Seeds were sown in cleared or vegetated exclosures and in cleared or vegetated rangeland grazed by sheep. Means with shared superscripts do not differ significantly (ANOVA, P < 0.01). Treatment Exclosure cleared Exclosure vegetated Rangeland cleared Rangeland vegetated Figure 7—Emergence and survival of sown seeds in exclosures, grazed vegetation, and cleared plots. 219 n 12 16 13 3 May 1992 height ± SD 11.6a 4.6b 3.2b 4.0b 3.7 1.7 1.3 2.0 n 15 6 6 0 August 1993 height ± SD 13.0a 3.2 6.7b 3.4 4.5b 1.5 no survivors plant populations, herbivory can bring about changes in vegetation composition. Most shrubs and succulents germinate in autumn in the southern Karoo (van Breda and Barnard 1991). Large germination events were related to seed availability (dependent on vegetation composition, current herbivory and rainfall). Few seedlings reach reproductive maturity in undisturbed, arid shrublands (Eldridge and others 1990; Milton 1993; Owens and Norton 1992). In the southern Karoo, seedling survival was dependent on moisture availability in the six months after emergence. Seedlings survived where competition from established plants had been reduced, prolonging water availability after rain events. Droughts (Danckwerts and Stuart-Hill 1988), hail storms (Powrie 1993) and intensive trampling and grazing (Bosch and Gauch 1991) also reduce competition and provide opportunities for seedling establishment. Insects and mammals that uproot plants, dig pits, or excavate nests ensure continual seedlings recruitment by creating establishment sites in stable vegetation (Dean and Milton 1991; Milton and Dean 1990a; Dean and Yeaton 1992). Seed traps influence the composition and arrangement of Karoo vegetation (Fig. 8). Small seeds (mostly produced by low-growing succulent mesembryanthemaceae) are trapped by fine soil particles so that their seedlings occur mainly in inter-shrub gaps. Winged or bristled seeds (Liliaceae, Asteraceae, Aizoaceae) are tumbled by wind until trapped in multi-stemmed plants, litter or mammal diggings (Dean and Milton 1991; Hoffman and Cowling 1987; Milton 1993). Non-succulent shrubs establish beneath low-growing, succulent hosts which they later out-compete (Yeaton and Esler 1990). The shrubs tolerate one another for decades, forming mixed-species clumps. In this way Karoo vegetation is arranged in a mosaic of plant islands and bare ground, much like the vegetation of the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico (Montaña 1992). Grazing, and other factors that increase the proportion of bare ground to vegetated and littered microsites, influence the composition of vegetation. Model for Change in Southern Karoo Shrublands On the basis of the foregoing discussion, improvement in composition of Karoo rangeland could be achieved by: a) removing herbivores, b) adding seed of forage species, c) reducing competition from established plants, and d) adding seed traps. In addition to this it may be necessary to restore ecosystem functioning (Milton and others 1994). This could involve soil amelioration (Dean 1992; Roux and Opperman 1986; Schlesinger and others 1990; Snyman and Fouché 1991), and reintroduction of animal or microbe species that move soil, facilitate nutrient uptake, pollination or dispersal, or alter competitive interactions between plant species (Bond 1993; MacMahon 1987). The model (Fig. 9) presents hypothetical mechanisms by which an overgrazed arid shrubland (1), could be rehabilitated to a more productive and diverse shrubland (2), or further degraded to distasteful (3) or ephemeral vegetation (6). Figure 8—Recruitment opportunities for plant species with small, smooth seed and large, winged seed. 220 There is little information on how transitions from ephemerals to perennials may be facilitated, but our experiments suggest that seed traps should be provided, or small-seeded species that can establish in the open should be selected for initial re-seeding. An important aspect for future research is the effect of scale on vegetation rehabilitation. We have no information on the effects of the size of an area of transformed Karoo vegetation on its prospects for recovery, and annual dispersal distances of the component plant species are unknown. Acknowledgments This report is a contribution to the Desertification Programme of the FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town. The Programme is funded by the Foundation for Research Development, the Department of Environment Affairs and the Southern African Nature Foundation. Attendance at the Wildland Shrub and Arid Land Restoration Symposium was funded by the Foundation for Research Development and the FitzPatrick Institute. We thank M.T. Hoffman, M.C. Rutherford, and W.R. Siegfried for comments and suggestions on a draft of this paper. Figure 9—Rehabilitation model for Karoo shrubland. The mechanisms for transitions between these states of the vegetation include stock withdrawal, natural disturbances (grazing, trampling, drought), and active management of either the vegetation (selective clearing, re-seeding) or of the environment. Although oversimplified, the model provides a variety of testable hypotheses. Following Savory (1991), many livestock ranchers believe that short-duration, high-intensity grazing increases both productivity and abundance of forage species. We have excluded this mechanism from our Karoo rehabilitation model because there is no evidence that it increases forage plant populations in arid Karoo shrubland (Hoffman 1988). 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There is no universally correct way to manage rangeland (Noy-Meir 1993): all techniques should be critically evaluated by experiment for each type of range. Reseeding, with or without partial clearing, tilling or mulching have all been attempted in arid and semi-arid southern Africa (Roux and Vorster 1983). All are costly, none is infallible, and some may exacerbate existing rangeland problems. Seed addition could increase forage plant abundance but is unlikely to succeed without some reduction of established plants and temporary protection from grazing. Clearing should be approached with caution because it increases runoff (Snyman and Fouché 1991) and because the costs involved in vegetation manipulation are unlikely to be offset by short-term benefits in arid rangelands (Danckwerts and Marais 1989). Droughts and hail storms that kill many established plants may provide windows of reduced competition when supplementary seeding of forage plants could lead to recruitment. 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