STAT551: Final project description
Final written report due Monday, December 14, 2009
This project is a requirement you must fulfill in order to pass this course.
The general goal of the project is to provide you with experience in applying
time series theory to real data. The project must be typed using any word
processor you prefer, and it must not contain raw computer output. For this
project, you must find a data set on your own. The data cannot be a data
set found in a textbook or been analyzed in detail and results published. The
following are required for this project:
1. Find a time series data set. You must include the complete reference
to your data set in your report. Also, you will need to supply, in a
separate file, the data set and the code you used to produce the report.
Include a brief description of the data in the report, making sure you
include your goals and objectives for this analysis.
2. Submit a time plot of the data and the goals and objectives of your
analysis to me by November 6, 2009.
3. If your data set has any missing observations, explain what caused those
values to be missing and explain how you dealt with the problem.
4. Plot your data versus time. Indicate any important events that have
occurred over the observation period that probably had an effect on
the process.
5. Perform any preliminary analysis necessary to ensure the data set is
stationary (if there is evidence of nonstationarity, try using differencing,
smoothing or polynomial trend removal).
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6. Tentatively identify one or more possible models for your time series.
Using R, estimate at least two different tentative models for your data.
Try as many models as are needed until you find one that adequately
describes your data. Include any diagnostic measures you have used.
7. Briefly describe the steps that you followed in arriving at your “final”
model.
8. Briefly describe the behavior of the process that you have been studying
and explain what you have learned about this process by studying the
data, and comment on your conclusions in the context of your original
goals and objectives.
9. The report (excluding figures and tables) should be no more than 3
pages long. Append all your figures and tables at the end of the report.
10. Submit your report, data and code in electronic format to me by noon
on December 14, 2009. Preferred electronic format is .pdf.
11. You will present your findings in an oral presentation (about 10 minutes) following a schedule we will agree on and which will be posted on
the website.
12. Guidelines for grading and evaluation of the project and presentation
are posted on the class web site.
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