21st Century Hydroclimate
Monitoring in California
PACLIM 2015
Talk Overview
• Program Work
• Research
• Coming Soon
Acknowledgements
•
•
•
•
•
•
Western Region Climate Center/NCDC
American Association of State Climatologists
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
United States Geological Survey
University of California
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Earth System Research Lab
Western Region Climate Center’s
CA Climate Tracker: A way to track change
Source: California Climate Tracker - WRCC
Spatial representation of temperature
rankings for water year 2014
Source: California Climate Tracker - WRCC
2011-2014 Driest 3-Year Period for CA
It’s getting warmer, which increases
the impact of droughts
80
Precipitation and temperature: 1895 - 2013
Annual Precipitation (inches)
70
2
60
50
40
30
20
1976
10
2013
0
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
Annual Mean Temperature (degrees F)
Source: NOAA Climate Division 2 Calendar Year Data
21st Century Droughts on the Sacramento River
40
Water Year Runoff (million acre-feet)
35
5 of 20 lowest April-July flows since 2001
2
30
25
20
15
10
5
1976
0
0
2
4
6
20th Century
8
21st Century
10
12
POR Average
April –July Runoff (million acre-feet)
14
16
CoCoRaHS
• 1,270 Volunteers
• 11,769 reports in
Feb 2015
• Volunteers in 55 of
58 Counties
12
72 Hour Accumulated
Precipitation
2014-12-10 00:00 – 2014-12-13 00:00 UTC
SiteID
mdt
hof
pic
hbg
rvo
rod
czc
lsn
dut
sho
hld
bto
str
wls
ata
cfc
lve
cfx
cmn
blu
Name
Middletown, CA
Geyserville, CA
Alexander, CA
Healdsburg, CA
Lytton, CA
Rio Nido, CA
Cazadero, CA
Lake Sonoma, CA
Graton-South, CA
Forestville, CA
Hopland, CA
Sebastopol, CA
Santa Rosa, CA
Willits, CA
Alta, CA
Colfax, CA
Leesville, CA
Colfax, CA
Camino, CA
Blue Canyon, CA
Precip
10.52"
8.13"
7.89"
7.86"
7.54"
6.98"
6.72"
6.48"
6.35"
6.33"
6.23"
6.1"
5.76"
5.06"
4.46"
4.44"
4.22"
4.14"
3.94"
3.71"
Radar FMCWs
Snow Level
and Fall Velocities
2014-12-11 00:00 – 2014-12-13 00:00 UTC
Integrated Water
Vapor Flux
using RAP
operational.
2014-12-10 12:00 – 2014-12-12
12:00 UTC
UC Merced - Node construction at Alpha site
Airborne Snow
Observatory 2014
Partnership between NASA/JPL and CA DWR
Most accurate maps of snowfall
-0.2
0
Δ SWE (m)
0.2
Snowfall
24 March to 7 April 2014
Lyell Fork, Tuolumne
According to snow pillows,
winter/spring 2014 were close
to worst snowfall season on
record in California, on top of
ongoing drought.
ASO data show that our
previous best estimate of
basin snow water equivalent
was off dramatically,
particularly at the highest
elevations where there are
no snow pillows.
More accurate runoff
forecasting
Airborne Monitoring of California’s Water Infrastructure
Levee and Aqueduct Health Assessment
•
Projects:
•
Monitoring Levees and Subsidence in
the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
using Airborne Radar Data
•
California Aqueduct
Optimized Radar Remote Sensing to:
•
Assess Levee Health;
•
Measure subsidence along the
California Aqueduct.
•Goals:
(1) Inform a targeted monitoring program that
can identify potential problem spots along levees
or aqueducts before failure.
Gulfstream jet flying radar
system over CA
(2) Develop new emergency response
capabilities.
Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, CA
Advantages of radar remote sensing:
•
rapid assessment of large areas
•
consistent methodology
•
Measure difficult to access areas
•
Detecting movement and anomalous change
Informed targeting of ground assets can save time,
money, and lives.
20
Subsidence Rates Central Valley, CA
CA DWR funded JPL to buy satellite data and
produce subsidence maps
THE 16 MAY 2005 FLOOD IN YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK--A Glimpse into High-Country Flood Generation in the Sierra Nevada
Michael Dettinger, USGS
Scripps Inst Oceanography, La Jolla, CA
16 May 2005 in Yosemite Valley
CEC’s California Climate Change Center
1” of precipitation and warm temperatures can
generate major flood flows.
Highest parts of
network
Atmospheric rivers are a key phenomenon
affecting water supply and flooding
Polar Processes
Cyclogensis
Storm Track changes
Flooding &
water supply
L
MJO/Tropical
Convection
Easterly Wave
ENSO
The size of an atmospheric river results from the
alignment of key processes
Slide adapted from M. Ralph
Slide from CW3E
Decadal scale precipitation variability tied
to Atmospheric River landfall variability
Source: Dettinger and Cayan (2014)
Soil Moisture Monitoring
(headwaters of Mark West Creek)
Normal year
plant water use
of soil water
WY2012
WY2013
WY2014
Slide from Alan and Lorrie Flint
Data US Geological Survey
Coming Soon
• R-CAT Research Plan
• DWR HAFOO Research and Development Plan
• Hydroclimate Bulletin
Questions?
Email: Michael.L.Anderson@water.ca.gov