AGENDA FOR THE TWENTY-FIFTH PACIFIC CLIMATE WORKSHOP Asilomar State Conference Grounds, Pacific Grove, California March 6-9, 2011 The Pacific Climate Workshop (PACLIM) is a multidisciplinary workshop that broadly addresses the climatic phenomena occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean and western North America. The purpose of the workshop is to understand climate effects in this region by bringing together specialists from diverse fields including physical, social, and biological sciences. Time scales from to the millennial-scale Pleistocene variability to current temperature and precipitation records are addressed in oral and poster presentations. The theme of the 2011 PACLIM workshop addresses the new tools that have led to higher resolution studies and more accurate predictions of climate change in the eastern Pacific Ocean and western North America. The remainder of the meeting is devoted to a wide range of climaterelated topics. The atmosphere of the workshop is intentionally informal, and room and board are provided for many of the participants. This year, the workshop was organized by representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Forest Service. The funding and other sources of support come from several agencies: Delta Science Program: Cliff Dahm Desert Research Institute: Terry Surles U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development: Deb Willard U.S. Naval Postgraduate School: Tom Murphree All oral presentations will be in the FRED FARR FORUM and posters will be in the KILN ROOM. SUNDAY NIGHT, March 6th Moderator: Scott Starratt CURRENT EVENTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON REGISTRATION 600-700 DINNER 700-715 OPENING REMARKS Scott Starratt (USGS-Menlo Park) -1- 715-745 THE PACLIM YEAR: WESTERN CLIMATE 2010-2011 IN PERSPECTIVE Kelly Redmond (WRCC) 745-815 WATER YEAR 2011: THE RAINS HAVE COME BACK Maurice Roos (CA DWR)) 815-1000 POSTERS AND SOCIALIZING 830-1000 SIZZLE: A GLOBAL WARMING COMEDY MONDAY MORNING, March 7th Moderator: SPECIAL SESSION: NEW TOOLS . . . HIGHER RESOLUTION . . . MORE ACCURATE PREDICTIONS 730-830 BREAKFAST 845-900 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS Scott Starratt (USGS – Menlo Park) 900-925 ENVIRONMENTAL AND BIOTIC CHANGE AT NANODIAMOND DATUM: THE YOUNGER DRYAS BOUNDARY IMPACT HYPOTHESIS James Kennett (University of California – Santa Barbara), Allen West (Geosciences Consulting), Douglas Kennett (University of Oregon), Charles Kinzie (De Paul University), and Wendy Wolbach (De Paul University) 925-950 EL NIÑO IN THE HOLOCENE AND LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM Athanasios Koutavas (College of Staten Island) 950-1015 EXAMINING GULF OF ALASKA MARINE PALEOCLIMATE AT SEASONAL TO DECADAL TIMESCALES Jason A. Addison (USGS – Menlo Park), Bruce P. Finney (Idaho State University), and Joseph S. Stoner (Oregon State University) 1015-1035 BREAK 1035-1100 MULTIPLE MODES OF VARIABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE David B. Field (Hawaii Pacific University) -2- 1100-1125 PROJECTED SEA-LEVEL RISE IMPACTS ON THE SALT MARSH LANDSCAPES OF SAN FRNACISCO BAY, CALIFORNIA AND ITS RESIDENT SALT MARSH WILDLIFE SPECIES John Takekawa (USGS – WERC), Karen Thorne (USGS – WERC), Kyle Spragens (USGS – WERC), Michael Casazza (USGS – WERC), Cory Overton (USGS – WERC), Judith Drexler (USGS – CA WSC), Dave Schoellhammer (USGS – CA WSC), and Kathleen Swanson (USGS – CA WSC) 1125-1150 PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM A NEW HIGH-RESOLUTION ICE CORE FROM COMBATANT COL, MOUNT WADDINGTON, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA Douglas H. Clark (Western Washington University), Nicole Boweran (Western Washington University), Eric J., Steig (University of Washington), Peter Neff( University of Washington), Erin Pettit (University of Alaska), Joseph McConnell (Desert Research Institute), Bella Bergeron (ICDS), and Brian Menounos (University of Northern British Columbia) 1200-100 LUNCH MONDAY AFTERNOON, March 7th Moderator: SPECIAL SESSION: NEW TOOLS . . . HIGHER RESOLUTION . . . MORE ACCURATE PREDICTIONS (continued) 130-155 PLEISTOCENE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY IN THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA: STALAGMITE RESULTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS Jessica Oster (Stanford University), Isabel Montañez (University of California – Davis), and Jerry Potter (University of California – Davis) 155-220 A SEASON-SPECIFIC PALEOCLIMATE RECORD FROM A NORTHERN WASATCH MOUNTAINS SPELEOTHEM AND LINKAGES TO THE PACIFIC Zachary Lundeen (University of Utah), Andrea Brunelle (University of Utah), Stephen J. Burns University of Massachusetts), Yemane Asmerom (University of New Mexico), and Victor Polyak (University of New Mexico) 220-245 TWENTY-FIVE YEARS OF CO-EVOLUTION OF DENDROCLIMATOLOGY AND PACLIM Malcolm K. Hughes (University of Arizona) -3- 245-310 FOSSIL WETLANDS IN THE DESERTS OF THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST Jeffrey S. Pigati (USGS – Denver) 310-330 BREAK 330-355 URANIUM ISOTOPIC VARIATIONS IN MODERN SOILS AND DATED SOIL MINERALS: CALIBRATING A POTENTIAL PALEORAINFALL PROXY Jessica Oster, Katharine Maher, and Daniel Ibarra (all Stanford University) 355-420 SIMULATING MOUNTAIN CLIMATES: CHALLENGES AND APPROACHES Philip B. Duffy (Climate Central, Inc.) 420-445 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES AND FLOOD RISKS IN CALIFORNIA Michael D. Dettinger (USGS – SIO), Tapash Das (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Daniel R. Cayan (USGS – SIO), and Theresa Carpenter (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) 445-510 AN EMPIRICAL METHOD TO FORECAST THE EFFECT OF STORM INTENSITY ON SHALLOW LANDSLIDE ABUNDANCE Jonathan D. Stock (USGS – Menlo Park) and Dino Bellugi (University of California – Berkeley) 600-700 DINNER MONDAY EVENING, March 7th Moderator: Scott Starratt 700-800 TBA Randy Olsen (University of Southern California) 800-1000 POSTERS AND SOCIALIZING -4- TUESDAY MORNING, March 8th Moderator: SPECIAL SESSION: NEW TOOLS . . . HIGHER RESOLUTION . . . MORE ACCURATE PREDICTIONS (continued) 730-830 BREAKFAST 900-925 NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN CLIMATE VARIATIONS DURING 2009-2011 Tom Murphree (Naval Postgraduate School) 925-950 HIGH RESOLUTION CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND THEIR USE IN IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENTS IN CALIFORNIA Guido Franco (California Energy Commission) 950-1015 FROM ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION TO GRAPE TEMPERATURES: MACRO-, MESO-, TOPO-, AND MICROCLIMATE IN VINEYARDS (AND YOUR GLASS) Stuart B. Weiss (Viticision/Creekside Center for Earth Observation) 1015-1035 BREAK SANTA BARBARA BASIN, GREAT BASIN, ETC. 1035-1100 EXTENDING THE RECORD OF ABRUPT AND MILLENNIALSCALE CLIMATE AND OCEAN CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDPLEISTOCENE TRANSITION IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN, CALIFORNIA Richard J. Behl (CSU – Long Beach), Sara Afshar (CSU – Long Beach), James P. Kennett (University of California – Santa Barbara), Craig Nicholson (University of California – Davis), Christopher C. Sorlien (University of California – Santa Barbara), Courtney J. Marshall (CSU – Long Beach), Tessa M. Hill (University of California – Davis), Sarah M. White (University of California – Davis), Walter E. Dean (USGS – Denver), and John A. Barron (USGS – Menlo Park) 1100-1125 THE TIMING OF MULTIDECADAL DROUGHT SIGNALS RECORDED IN THE ELEMENTAL COMPOSITION OF SANTA BARBARA BASIN SEDIMENTS Ingrid L. Hendy (University of Michigan), Larianna Dunn (University of Michigan), and Arndt Schimmelmann (Indiana University) -5- 1125-1150 GEOCHEMICAL EVIDENCE FOR CHANGES IN SURFACE-WATER PRODUCTIVITY AND BOTTOM-WATER REDOX CONDITIONS DURING GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL TRANSITIONS IN THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN Walter Dean (USGS – Denver) 1200-100 LUNCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, March 8th Moderator: SANTA BARBARA BASIN, GREAT BASIN, ETC. 130-155 EVIDENCE FOR LATE HOLOCENE HYDROLOGIC CHANGE AT BIG SODA LAKE, A MAAR LAKE IN NORTHWEST NEVADA. Liam Reidy (University of California – Berkeley), Roger Byrne (University of California – Berkeley), Lynn Ingram (University of California – Berkeley), Michael Rosen (USGS – NV WSC), and Marith Reheis (USGS – Denver) 155-220 EVIDENCE OF HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES CAUSED BY HUMAN DISTURBANCE RECORDED IN NITROGEN AND CARBON ISOTOPES FROM BIG SODA AND PYRAMID LAKES, NEVADA Michael R. Rosen (USGS – NV WSC), Liam Reidy (University of California – Berkeley), Simon Poulson (University of Nevada – Reno), Carol Kendall (USGS – Menlo Park), Roger Byrne (University of California – Berkeley), and Marith Reheis (USGS – Denver) 220-245 HYDROLOGIC FLUCTUATIONS AT PYRAMID LAKE, WALKER LAKE, AND THE CARSON SINK, NEVADA DURING THE MEDIEVAL CLIMATE ANOMALY Kenneth D. Adams (Desert Research Institute) 245-310 A NEW LOOK AT THE CHRONOLOGY FOR A CLASSIC PLEISTOCENE LAKE: LAKE BONNEVILLE’S PROVO SHORELINE David M. Miller (USGS – Menlo Park), Charles G. Oviatt (Kansas State University), and John P. McGeehin (USGS – Reston) 310-330 BREAK 330-355 CHIRONOMID PALEOCLIMATOLOGY: THE VIEW FROM THE GREAT BASIN David F. Porinchu (Ohio State University) -6- 355-420 HOLOCENE VEGETATION AND DISTURBANCE RECONSTRUCTIONS FROM THE TRANSITION REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO PLATEAU IN UTAH Jesse L. Morris, Andrea R. Brunelle, and Mitchell J. Power (all University of Utah) 420-445 SUBSTRATE AND CLIMATE INFLUENCES ON HOLOCENE FOREST DEVELOPMENT Christy E. Briles (Monash University), Cathy Whitlock (Montana State University), Carl N. Skinner (U.S. Forest Service – PSRS), and Jerry Mohr (Oregon State University) 445-510 EVALUATION OF VEGETATION DYNAMICS AND CLIMATIC OSCILATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN DELTA OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE HOLOCENE Irina Delusina (University of California – Davis) 600-700 DINNER TUESDAY EVENING, March 8th Moderator: Scott Starratt 700-800 HAWAIIAN FOREST BIRDS: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE STATUS OF AN ENDANGERED AVIFAUNA Dennis A. LaPointe (USGS – PIERC), Carter T. Atkinson (USGS – PIERC), Paul C. Banko (USGS – PIERC), Richard J. Camp (University of Hawai’I – Hilo), P. Marcos Gorresen (University of Hawai’I – Hilo), James D. Jacobi (USGS – PIERC), Thane K. Pratt (USGS – PIERC), and Michael D. Samuel (USGS – WCWRU) 800-1000 POSTERS AND SOCIALIZING WEDNESDAY MORNING, March 9th Moderator: POTPOURRI – QUATERNARY AND MODELLING 730-830 BREAKFAST 900-925 POST-GLACIAL PLANT MIGRATIONS ARE SIMILAR TO HISTORIC AND ONGOING DISPERSAL AND SUCCESSION Kenneth L. Cole (USGS – SBSC), Kirsten Ironside (Northern Arizona University), and Neil Cobb (Northern Arizona University) -7- 925-950 THE LAST 2,000 YEARS OF CALIFORNIA CLIMATE VARIABILITY: COMPARISON OF SEDIMENT RECORDS OF LATE HOLOCENE PALEOCLIMATE FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES Steve Lund (University of Southern California), Larry Benson (University of Colorado), Matthew Kirby (CSU – Fullerton), Will Berelson (University of Southern California), Sarah Feakins (University of Southern California), Frank Corsetti (University of Southern California) 950-1015 VARIATION IN FORAMINIFERAL DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS THE PLEISTOCENE-HOLOCENE TRANSITION OFF THE KAYAK SLOPE, NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA Sarah D. Zellers, Kathryn Mueller, and Dianna D. Hill (all University of Central Missouri) 1015-1035 PROJECTED 21ST CENTURY TRENDS IN HYDROCLIMATOLOGY OF THE TAHOE BASIN Robert Coats (University of California – Davis), Mariza Costa-Cabral (Hydrology Futures), Michael Dettinger (USGS – SIO), John Riverson (Tetra Tech, Inc.), John Reuter (University of California – Davis), Goloka Sahoo (University of California – Davis), Geoffrey Schladow (University of California – Davis), and Brent Wolfe (Northwest Hydraulic Consultants) 1035-1100 HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND HABITAT RESILIENCY ILLUSTRATED USING FINE-SCALE WATERSHED MODELING Alan L. Flint (USGS – Sacramento), Lorraine E. Flint (USGS – Sacramento), Elisabeth Micheli (Pepperwood Preserve), Stuart B. Weiss (Creekside Center for Earth Observation), and Morgan Kennedy (Pepperwood Preserve) 1100-1125 LONG-TERM SNOWPACK VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE NORTH AMERICAN CORDILLERA Gregory T. Pederson (USGS – NRMSC), Stephen T. Gray (University of Wyoming), Connie A. Woodhouse (University of Arizona), Julio L. Betancourt (USGS – Tucson), Daniel B. Fagre (USGS – NRMSC), Jeremy S. Littell (University of Washington), Emma Watson (Environment Canada), Brian H. Luckman (University of Western Ontario), and Lisa J. Graumlich (University of Washington) -8- 1125-1150 CMIP3 PROJECTIONS FOR THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION FOR 2000-2050 UNDER THE B1, A1B, AND A2 SRES EMISSION SCENARIOS Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques, Suzan Lapp, Elaine Barrow, and David Sauchyn (all University of Regina) 1150-1200 FINAL WORDS Scott W. Starratt (USGS-Menlo Park) 1200-100 LUNCH POSTERS MULTI-PROXY EVIDENCE FOR MIDDLE AND LATE HOLOCENE FLUCTUATIONS IN CLIMATE REGIME IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN Lysanna Anderson, Dave Wahl, Scott Starratt, and Elmira Wan THE IMPACT OF LITTLE ICE AGE COOLING ON MOUNTAIN HEMLOCK (Tsuga mertensiana) DISTRIBUTION IN SOUTHCENTRAL, ALASKA R. Scott Anderson (Northern Arizona University), Darrell S. Kaufman (Northern Arizona University), Caleb Schiff (Northern Arizona University), Tom Daigle (GEI Consultants), and Edward Berg (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) RESPONSE OF DIATOM AND SILICOFLAGELLATE ASSEMBLAGES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN DURING THE PAST 177 YEARS AND THE RISE OF THE TOXIC DIATOM PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA AUSTRALIS John A. Barron (USGS – Menlo Park), David Bukry (USGS – Menlo Park), and David B. Field (Hawaii Pacific University) COMPARISON OF VARVE CHRONOLOGY AND 14C DATES AT HIGH RESOLUTION: REEVALUATING THE AGE OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN LATE HOLOCENE PALEOCLIMATE SEQUENCE Larianna Dunn (University of Michigan), Ingrid L. Hendy (University of Michigan), and Arndt Schimmelmann (Indiana University) INITIAL RESULTS FROM A NEW LAKE ELSINORE SEDIMENT CORE REVEAL EVIDENCE FOR HYDROLOGIC CHANGE DURING THE LATE-GLACIAL/HOLOCENE TRANSITION Joanna M. Fantozzi (CSU – Fullerton), Mathew E. Kirby (CSU – Fullerton), Steven P. Lund (University of Southern California), and Christine A. Hiner (CSU – Fullerton) A HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF AN ALEXANDRIUM CATENELLA CYST RECORD FROM SEQUIM BAY, WA AND ITS RELATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY -9- Kirsten Feifel and Rita A. Horner (both University of Washington) ABOVE-TREELINE LINANTHUS PUNGENS SHRUB-CHRONOLOGIES ON THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST, MONO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA CONTAIN RECORDS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE Rebecca S. Franklin (University of Arizona), Malcolm K. Hughes (University of Arizona), and Constance I. Millar (USFS – PSRS) THE PALEOCLIMATE POTENTIAL AND ENIGMA OF LAGUNA MINUCUA, OAXACA, MEXICO Michelle Goman (Cornell University), Charlotte Pearson (Cornell University), William Guerra Cornell University), Arthur Joyce (University of Colorado), and Darren Dale (Cornell University) MONSOON PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTED FROM TREE RINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES Daniel Griffin, Connie A. Woodhouse, David M. Meko, Ramzi Touchan , Steven W. Leavitt, Christopher L. Castro, Carlos M. Carillo, and Brittany Ciancarelli (all University of Arizona) LINKS BETWEEN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENT VARIABILITY AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURES: THE PAST MILLENNIUM Juan Carlos Herguera (CICESE), P. Graham Mortyn (ICTA), and Miquel Àngel Martínez-Botí (ICTA) OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MEDIEVAL CLIMATE ANOMALY INFERRED FROM POLLEN DEPOSITED IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN SINCE ~800 A.D. Linda Heusser (LDEO), John Barron (USGS – Menlo Park), and Ingrid Hendy (University of Michigan) EFFECTS OF BASELINE CONDITIONS ON THE SIMILATED HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF THE ALMANOR CATCHMENT, NORTH FORK OF THE FEATHER RIVER BASIN, CALIFORNIA Kathryn M. Koczot (USGS – CA WSC), Steven L. Markstrom (USGS – Denver), and Lauren E. Hay (USGS – Denver) FIRE HISTORY IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, UTAH, USA Rebecca Koll and Mitchell J. Power (both University of Utah) SEVERITY AND FORCING OF DROUGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT PLAINS SINCE 1365 Suzan L. Lapp, Jessica R. Vanstone, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques, and David J. Sauchyn (all University of Regina) -10- DECICPHERING THE ROLE OF CLIMATE- VERSUS HUMAN-CAUSED DISTURBANCE DURING THE 19TH AND 20TH CENTURY; A COMPARISON OF ISOTOPIC, STOICHOIMETRIC, POLLEN, AND PLANT MACROFOSSILS FROM TWO LAKES IN THE WESTERN U.S. N.A. Macharia and Mitchell J. Power (both University of Utah) PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE INFLUENCES OF SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CLIMATE DURING THE PAST MILLENNIUM: NEW ECIDENCE FROM A WELL-CALIBRATED, HIGH-RESOLUTION STALAGMITE δ18O RECORD FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA Staryl E. McCabe-Glynn (University of California – Irvine), Kathleen R. Johnson (University of California – Irvine), Max B. Berkelhammer (University of Colorado), Ashish Sinha CSU – Dominguez Hills), H. Cheng (Xi’an Jiatong University), Larry Edwards University of Minnesota) LATEST QUATERNARY PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON THE FARALLON ESCARPMENT OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA Mary McGann (USGS -Menlo Park) A 9,700-YR MULTI-PROXY RECONSTRUCTION OF HYDROLOGIC AND VEGETATION HISTORY FROM A LOW-ELEVATION SPRING-FED MEADOW, EAST CENRAL NEVADA Scott Mensing (University of Nevada – Reno) and Saxon E. Sharpe (Desert Research Institute) THERMAL AND HYDROLOGIC ATTRIBUTES OF ROCK GLACIERS AND RELATED LANDFORMS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, CA: FIVE YEARS OF iBUTTON RECORDS Constance I. Millar, Robert D. Westfall, and Diane L. Delany (all USFS – PSRS) VERTICAL MOVEMENT OF LOW-OXYGEN WATERS IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN FOR THE PAST 15,000 Sarah Myhre (Bodega Marine Laboratory), Tessa M. Hill (Bodega Marine Laboratory), James P. Kennett (University of California – Santa Barbara), Kenichi Ohkushi (Ibaraki University), and Richard Behl (CSU – Long Beach) FORAMINIFERAL SHELL THINNING OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS IN VARVED SEDIMENT FROM THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN, CALIFORNIA Dorothy Pak (University of California – Santa Barbara), Lily Clayman (University of California – Santa Barbara), James, Weaver (Harvard University), Arndt Schimmelmann (Indiana University), and Ingrid Hendy (University of Michigan) BIOMASS BURNING IN THE AMERICAS AFTER A.D. 1500: EUROPEAN CONTACT OR CLIMATE? Mitchell J. Power (University of Utah), Francis Mayle (University of Edinburgh), and Patrick J -11- Bartlein (University of Oregon) PROJECTED NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN ANNUAL STREAMFLOW FOR 2000-2099 UNDER THE B1, A1B AND A2 SRES EMISSIONS SCENARIOS Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques, Suzan Lapp, Yang Zhao, Elaine Barrow, and David Sauchyn (all University of Regina) EROSION OF TOPMOST VARVES BY TURBIDITE DEPOSITION LIMITS VARVE COUNT ACCURACY IN SANTA BARBARA BASIN, CALIFORNIA Arndt Schimmelmann (Indiana University), Ingrid Hendy (University of Michigan), Dorothy Pak (University of California – Santa Barbara), and Aaron Zayin (Indiana University) RAINFALL, RUNOFF, AND POST-WILDFIRE GEOMORPHIC TRANSPORT PROCESSES Kevin M. Schmidt (USGS – Menlo Park), Maiana N. Hanshaw (USGS – Menlo Park), James F. Howle (USGS – NV WSC), and Jonathan D. Stock (USGS – Menlo Park) MODELED PLEISTOCENE DISTRIBUTIONS OF THREE CLIMATICALLY SENSITIVE TREE TAXA IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO Dyuti Sengupta and Roger Byrne (both University of California – Berkeley) DIAGNOSING AND PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS Oliver E. Timm (University of Hawai’i – Manoa), Thomas W. Giambelluca (University of Hawai’i – Manoa), and Henry F. Diaz (NOAA-CIRES) PALEOFIRE REGIMES IN MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE REGIONS Shira Tracy (University of Utah), Mitchell J. Power (University of Utah), R. Scott Anderson (Northern Arizona University), and the GPWG Community GUIDING CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY TIDAL MARSHES Sam Veloz, Nadav Nur, Leo Salas, Julian Wood, Diana Stralberg, Grant Ballard, Dennis Jongsomjit (all PRBO Conservation Science) ELKHORN SLOUGH TIDAL WETLANDS: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Elizabeth B. Watson (University of California – Davis), Eric Van Dyke (Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve), and Kerstin Wasson (University of California – Santa Cruz) A LATE HOLOCENE RECORD OF DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, USA Jennifer H. Watt (University of Utah), Andrea Brunelle (University of Utah), and Kurt Kipfmueller (University of Minnesota) -12- MILLENNIAL-SCALE CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS TO 735,000 YEARS AGO AS RECORDED IN HIGH-RESOLUTION MARINE SEDIMENT RECORDS FROM SANTA BARBARA BASIN, CALIFORNIA Sarah M. White (University of California – Davis), Tessa M. Hill (University of California – Davis), James P. Kennett (University of California – Santa Barbara), and Richard Behl (CSU – Long Beach) CLIMATE DRIVERS OF STREAMFLOW SYNCHRONICITY IN WESTERN U.S. RIVERS OVER MULTIPLE CENTURIES Erika K. Wise (University of North Carolina) DEVELOPING ROBUST AGE MODELS FOR LAKE RECORDS: CASE STUDIES FROM CALIFORNIA Susan R.H. Zimmerman, Tom Guilderson, and Tom Brown (all Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) -13-