California Fisheries and Ecological Responses to Abrupt Ocean Climate Changes (or did foreign markets do it?) Jerry Norton, Jan Mason and Sam Herrick Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA) Question: How much of the variation in fisheries landings is due to economic and management factors and how much is due to measurable environmental variation? First, illustrate controversy and confusion. (apparent responses to climate events) Second, present progress in finding solutions. Dolphin (fish), or mahi mahi or dorado catch by southern California Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessels Dolphin (fish), or mahi mahi or dorado catch by southern California Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessels History of California Commercial Swordfish Landings (Imports limited) Time and area closures, net restrictions, limited entry Use composite to avoid particular problems EOF analysis of 29 species with landings reported through 75 years Table 1. Harvest habitat for the 29 ecosystem indicator species. Wide trophic representation….. Demersal species code* scientific name cabezon California halibut California scorpionfish California sheephead Dungeness (market) crab giant seabass lingcod ocean whitefish Pacific hake (whiting) Pacific halibut spiny lobster sablefish white croaker cbzn chlb scor shpd dcrb gbas lcod owfs pwht phlb slbs sabl wcrk Scorpaenichthys marmoratus Paralicthys californicus Scorpaena guttata Semicossyphus pulcher Cancer magister Stereolepis gigas Ophiodon elongatus Caulolatilus princeps Merluccius productus Hippoglossus stenolepis Panulirus interruptus Anoplopoma fimbria Genyonemus lineatus albc cuda btna pbnt stna swrd wbas ytna yltl Thunnus alalunga Sphyraena argentea Thunnus orientalis Sarda chiliensis Katsuwonus pelamis Xiphias gladius Atractoscion noblis Thunnus albacares Seriola dorsalis cmck jmck msqd nanc phrg pbtr psdn Scomber japonicus Trachurus symmetricus Loligo opalescens Engraulis mordax Clupea pallasii Peprilus simillimus Sardinops sagax Migratory species albacore Pacific barracuda Pacific bluefin tuna Pacific bonito skipjack tuna swordfish white seabass yellowfin tuna yellowtail Pelagic species chub (Pacific) mackerel jack mackerel market squid northern anchovy Pacific herring Pacific pompano (butterfish) Pacific sardine (pilchard) *Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission code used in Figure 1 Hunboldt squid: a memorable character La Jolla (SIO) SST Index McGowan, Cayan and Dorman, 1998, Science 281: 210 Ending comments 1. Studies at the largest scales of combination suggest that changes in the physical environment affect the availability of fish, revenue earned by the total California catch and capital investment, but additional detail is needed. 2. Management is having increasing affects on landings. 3. Success of management plans in achieving stability in the fisheries will depend on consideration of environmental influence. 4. Ecological space developed in EOF analysis may have utility in organizing other ecosystem components.