Climate Change’s Influence on
Sudden Oak Death
Susan Frankel,
Sudden Oak Death Research Program Manager,
Pacific Southwest Research Station,
Albany, CA 94710
sfrankel@fs.fed.us
Phytophthora ramorum
Zoospores
Sporangia
Chlamydospores
Photo: UC Davis & UC Berkeley
BROWN
ALGAE and
DIATOMS
Sogin, Mitchell L. and Patterson, David J. 1995. Stramenopiles. Version 01 January 1995 (under
construction). http://tolweb.org/Stramenopiles/2380/1995.01.01 in The Tree of Life Web Project,
http://tolweb.org/
Credits: APS; Florance, Lewis & Clark
Forest Pathology 101
Courtesy Everett Hansen, OSU
Big Sur
Connick Creek, Humboldt Co. 2006
Western Sonoma County
CA Dept of Forestry and Fire, August 2006
Older
infestation
in Pfeiffer
Big Sur
State Park
Big Sur, 2004
The Threat of Phytophthora ramorum to
Historic Plant Collections managed by
The National Trust
(United Kingdom)
Stourhead Wiltshire
Wright, National Trust, UK
Cotehele Cornwall
Rhododendron ponticum clearance,
Lanhydrock, Cornwall (UK)
January 2007
Wright, National Trust, UK
Symptoms on camellia
Photo: Cheryl Blomquist, CDFA
Photo: Jonathan Jones, APHIS, PPQ
Distribution of infected nursery stock from individual nurseries
Map: USDA, APHIS, PPQ
Trace-forwards and positive detections across U.S.
July 2004
Map: USDA, APHIS, PPQ
U.S. Positive Nursery Detections 2006
11
1
13
1
1
1
28
No Nursery-Associated
Positive
AK
1
HI
1
1
2
Nursery-Associated
Positive
61 Positive Sites
APHIS map
Big Sur, 2003
Tree Mortality due to SOD in the Big Sur Region
Dead individuals
per ¼ ha cell
Monterey
1-4
BIG SUR
4-9
9 - 13
13 - 17
17 - 21
21 - 26
< 26
0
0.25
0.5
1
Miles
REGION-WIDE MORTALITY ESTIMATE
4
±
FOREST TYPE
NUMBER DEAD
Mixed Broad-Leaved Evergreen
160,491
Redwood-Tanoak Association
262,695
TOTAL
423,186
Mortality estimate based on 1 ft digital color imagery captured May
2005 and 80 1/4 ha field plots
0
Zoom-in of image detection work and 1
of 80 ¼ ha field plots of SOD mortality
2.5
5
10
15
20
Miles
P. ramorum
confirmations in
forests
Oregon County
– Curry (part)
California Counties
Map from www.suddenoakdeath.org
Kelly, UC-Berkeley
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Humboldt
Mendocino
Lake
Sonoma
Marin
Napa
Solano
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Contra Costa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Cruz
Alameda
Santa Clara
Monterey
Phytophthora ramorum host list
tanoak
canyon live oak
coast live oak
California black oak
Shreve oak
bigleaf maple
coffeeberry
California buckeye
salmonberry
Western starflower
California hazelnut
mountain laurel
Pieris varieties
Camellia species
European yew
false Solomon’s seal
goat willow
California bay laurel/pepperwood
horse-chestnut
sweet chestnut
European beech
drooping leucothoe
European turkey oak
toyon
cascara
coast redwood
manzanita
grand fir
Douglas-fir
European yew
strawberry tree
California wood fern
Pacific yew
winter’s bark
Andrew’s clintonia bead lily
southern red oak
northern red oak
Holm oak
wood rose
Viburnum varieties
madrone
Formosa firethorn
huckleberry
honeysuckle
poison oak
Scotch heather
witch-hazel
Victorian box
lilac
rhododendrons/azaleas
sweet bay laurel
Phytophthora ramorum
outer bark
Photo: Bruce Moltzen, Missouri Department of Conservation
inner bark
Phytophthora ramorum infection on the leaves of California bay laurel
(Umbellularia californica)
Photo: Rob Gross
600
Mean cfu/L + SE
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
0
100
0
Total precipitation (mm)
Spores in rainwater 2001-06
Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju
l t n r l t n r l t n r l t n r l t n r l
2001
02
03
month
04
05
UCDavis, Rizzo
What is the effect of P.r. in the
sapwood?????
P.r.
39% +
P.r.
83% +
Parke, OSU
40B(P.r.+)
Parke, OSU
Tyloses in vessels
Parke, OSU
Sap flow sensors inserted 1.5 cm deep into sapwood (xylem)
Sap flow in infected vs.
non-infected trees
Control
Infected
Sap flux (g m-2 s-1)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
Time
Parke, OSU
Marin Municipal Water District, Janet Klein photo
United States Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plant Protection and Quarantine
Effects of Climate Change on Areas Conducive to
Phytophthora ramorum Infection
Glenn Fowler and Roger Magarey
USDA-APHIS-PPQ-CPHST-PERAL
Raleigh, NC
United States Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plant Protection and Quarantine
North American Model
¾ Tmin = 3oC; Topt = 20oC; Tmax = 28oC (Orlikowski and Szkuta,
2002; Werres et al., 2001, Tooley et al., 2005)
¾ Minimum accumulated leaf wetness: 12 Hours (Huberli et al.,
2003)
¾ Annual prediction map uses ≥ 60 accumulated days during the
year meeting these conditions
United States Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plant Protection and Quarantine
10 Year Climatology
United States Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plant Protection and Quarantine
10 Year Climatology
United States Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plant Protection and Quarantine
Climate Change Simulation
¾ Scenario - Temperature is 2o C warmer and wetter Pathogen
required 8 h of leaf wetness instead of 12
United States Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plant Protection and Quarantine
2°C Warmer and Wetter
United States Department of Agriculture
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
Plant Protection and Quarantine
Conclusions
1) Climate change is causing the at-risk area for P.
ramorum infection to shift North
2) Major areas of transition are at the higher latitudes
3) Climate is becoming more conducive for P. ramorum
infection in California
4) The Increased temperature and moisture scenarios
increased the likelihood of P. ramorum infection in
California
Madrone leafspot and dieback
KQED photo