MtnClim 2010 Sponsored by the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research
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MtnClim 2010 Sponsored by the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research on Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) June 7 – 10, 2010 H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest Blue River, Oregon www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim Conference Purpose MTNCLIM aims to advance the sciences related to climate and its interaction with physical, ecological, and social systems of western North American mountains. Within this arena, MTNCLIM goals are to: • • • Provide a biennial forum for presenting and encouraging current, interdisciplinary research through invited and contributed oral and poster sessions. Promote active integration of science into resource-management application through focused sessions, panels, and ongoing problem-oriented working groups. Advance other goals of CIRMOUNT through ad hoc committees, networking opportunities, cohosting meetings, and targeted fund-raising efforts. A post-conference workshop entitled Adapting to Climate Change on the Willamette National Forest: Hydraulic Resources, Aquatic Systems, and Roads is scheduled. Conference Sponsors MTNCLIM is sponsored by the Consortium for Integrated Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT), with funding and support from the following agencies and institutions: • • • • • • • • • • • • University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources NOAA, Earth Systems Research Lab USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station USGS Water Resources, Geology, and Biological Resources Division Oregon State University, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society USDA Forest Service, Willamette National Forest HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon State University and USDA Forest Service Mountain Research Initiative, Berne, Switzerland USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center University of California, White Mountain Research Station Steering Committee Constance I. Millar, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station (co-chair) Henry F. Diaz, NOAA, Climate Diagnostics Center (co-chair) Daniel R. Cayan, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Michael D. Dettinger, USGS Water Resources Division Daniel B. Fagre, USGS Biological Resources Division Lisa J. Graumlich, University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative Malcolm K. Hughes, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research David L. Peterson, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station Frank L. Powell, University of California, White Mountain Research Station Kelly T. Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center John Smiley, University of California, White Mountain Research Station Nathan L. Stephenson, USGS Biological Resources Division, Three Rivers Thomas W. Swetnam, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research CIRMOUNT website: www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount CONTENTS Conference Agenda……………………………………………………………. 1 Agenda for the Post-Conference Managers Workshop………………...….. 6 Conference Abstracts………………………………………………..….….….. 7 List of Participants……………………………………………………….….….. 37 June 7 – 10, 2010 H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest Blue River, Oregon Cover photo (C.Millar): View north from North Sister showing Mt Washington, 3-Fingered Jack, and Mt Jefferson Agenda MtnClim 2010 H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Blue River, Oregon June 7-10, 2010 www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim MONDAY JUNE 7 1:00-5:00pm Pre-Conference Field Trip, Andrews Forest and Lookout Creek Watershed, Barbara Bond and Mark Schulze, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. Meet at the HJ Andrews Forest Headquarters 2:00-6:00pm MtnClim Registration & Onsite Lodging Check-in; Poster Set-up HJ Andrews Forest Headquarters, McRae Cafeteria Foyer 5:00pm Appetizers, McRae Cafeteria Foyer 6:00pm Dinner, McRae Cafeteria 7:30-9:30pm MtnClim 2010 Convenes, Conference Hall Moderator, Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, Albany, CA HJ Andrews Forest Welcome, Barbara Bond, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Keynote Speakers: Tom Spies, USDA Forest Service and Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR A legacy of ecological research in the western Cascades, Oregon Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV Weather & climate in the West since MtnClim 2008 TUESDAY, JUNE 8 6:30am Breakfast, Cafeteria 8:00am MtnClim Introduction & Objectives, Conference Hall Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, Albany, CA 8:15am Special Session: High-Resolution Climate Monitoring and Modeling Moderator, Lisa Graumlich 8:15am Chris Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Historical relationships between the spatial and temporal patterns of climate: Implications for mapping the future 8:45am Phil Duffy, Climate Central, Palo Alto CA Challenges in simulating climate change in mountain regions 1 9:15am Christina Tague, Bren School of Geography, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA Implications of hillslope-scale climate variation for estimating eco-hydrologic responses to warming 9:45am Break 10:15am Levi Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO Climate change impacts on water supply predictability 10:45am Paul Neiman, NOAA, Boulder, CO Landfalling impacts of atmospheric rivers: From extreme events to long-term consequences 11:15am Mike Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA Constructing ARkStorm--An extreme storm scenario for emergency preparedness in California 11:45am Session on Mountain Geomorphology and Climate Moderator, Mike Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA Bodo Bookhagen, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA Climate variability and mass-transport processes in the Himalaya 12:15pm Lunch, Cafeteria 1:30pm Afternoon Sessions, Conference Hall Moderator, Henry Diaz, NOAA, Boulder, CO Special Session: Machida Session on Risk, Communicating Science, Policy & Uncertainties 1:30pm Michele Wood, California State University, Fullerton, CA Motivating public readiness for disasters: Research findings and evidence-based recommendations for practice 2:00pm Richard Murnane, Bermuda Biological Stn of Ocean Science, Garrett Park, MD Dealing with risk: A view from the world of catastrophe risk modeling and insurance 2:30pm Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ A plausible range: Some observations on how resource managers are tackling climate change uncertainties 3:00pm Break 3:30pm Madeleine Nash, Independent Journalist, San Francisco, CA Who's who and what's what? Threading one's way through the maze of new media 4:00pm Tim Brown, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV The risk of communicating science to wildfire managers 2 4:30pm Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, University of Bern, Switzerland, Lessons learned on communications from six years of Mountain Research Initiative 5:00pm Tour of HJA Compound & Environs (Debris Flume, Meteorological Station, Research) Mark Schulze, Oregon State University, HJ Andrews Forest 6:30pm Dinner, Cafeteria 7:30pm Evening Speaker, Conference Hall, Moderator, Connie Millar Fred Swanson, Oregon State University and USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR History and legacy research of the HJ Andrews Forest WEDNESDAY JUNE 9 6:30am Breakfast, Cafeteria 8:00am Contributed Session 1, Conference Hall Moderator, Dave Peterson, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Seattle, WA 8:00am Jim Miller, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ Enhanced temperature increases in high-altitude regions 8:25am Imitaz Rangwala, NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO Examining climate change between the late 20th and mid 21st century in Colorado’s San Juan Mountains from high-resolution climate models 8:50am Alan Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA Responding to evolving stakeholder needs for 21st century hydrologic scenarios: An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Scenarios Project 9:15am Gordon Grant, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR Streamflow response to climate warming in mountain regions: Integrating the effects of snowpack and groundwater dynamics 9:40am Break 10:10am Contributed Session 2, Conference Hall Moderator, Nate Stephenson, USGS, Sequoia-Kings Canyon Field Station, Three Rivers, CA 10:10am Ryan MacDonald, University of Lethbridge, Alberta Canada Stream temperature response to environmental change 10:35am Cody Routson, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ Characterizing 2000 years of high-elevation climate variability in the south San Juan Mountains, CO 3 11:00am Jeremy Littell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA In pursuit of better models of the relationship between climate and fire: The role of water balance in area burned in the Pacific Northwest 11:25am Kathryn Thomas, USGS, Southwest Biological Center, Tucson, AZ The USA-National Phenology Network: Tracking the phenological response of plants, animals, and landscapes across the nation 11:50am Lunch & Free Time 2:00pm Contributed Session 3 Moderator, Barbara Bond, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 2:00pm Louis Scuderi, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM Recent enhanced tree growth at upper altitude sites in the western United States: Links to water-use efficiency 2:25pm Julia Jones, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR What we know about how climate change is affecting physical, biological, and social systems in and near the Andrews Forest, Oregon 2:50pm Harold Zald, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Multiscale climatic, topographic, and biotic controls of tree invasion in a subalpine parkland landscape, Jefferson Park, Oregon Cascades, USA 3:15pm Chris Dolanc, University of California, Davis, CA Widespread shifts in stand structure of subalpine conifers of the central Sierra Nevada over the last 75 years 3:40pm Stu Weiss, Creekside Center for Earth Observation, Menlo Park, CA From butterflies to bristlecones: Microclimatic and topoclimatic range adjustments as a foundation for conservation in a changing macroclimate 4:05pm Break 4:30pm Demonstration, Conference Hall Moderator, Connie Millar Dominique Bachelet, Conservation Biology Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Data Basin Climate Center 6:00pm Dinner, Cafeteria 7:30pm Poster Session with Machida Awards to Best Student Posters, Classroom Oral presentation in Conference Hall: Wolf Berger, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA A.E. Douglass and the search for solar cycles in tree rings 4 THURSDAY, JUNE 10 6:30am Breakfast, Cafeteria 8:00am Early-Career Scientists Session: New Insights from Monitoring across Scales and Regions Conveners: Andy Bunn (Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA), Ryan MacDonald (University of Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada), Christina Tague (University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA) 8:00am Todd Lookingbill, Dept. of Geography and Environment, Univ. of Richmond, VA Life on the edge: Monitoring forest community ecotones in a changing climate 8:25am Sarah Boon, Dept Geography, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB, Canada Forest disturbance in mountain environments: Hydrologic impacts of increasing landscape heterogeneity 8:50am Phil van Mantgem, USGS, Western Ecological Research Ctr, Arcata, CA Tree mortality, climatic change and the future of forests in the western United States 9:15am Rob Klinger, USGS, Yosemite Field Stn, Bishop, CA A mammal’s take on the Rapture Hypothesis, Jacob’s Ladder, and other notions of doom, gloom, and uniform change in alpine ecosystems 9:40am Break 10:10am Contributed Session 4 Moderator, Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, Bern, Switzerland 10:10am Janneke HilleRisLambers, University of Washington, Seattle, WA The heat is on: The impacts of climate change on species distribution 10:35am Karen Pope, USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Arcata, CA Interactive impacts of a fungal pathogen and temperature on amphibians in the mountains of northern California 11:00am Jennifer Davison (presented by Lisa Graumlich), Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ Views from climate space reveal missing assets in conservation portfolios and prioritize for building adaptive capacity 11:25am Rebecca Kennedy, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR Assessing potential tradeoffs in ecosystem services with climate change and fire management in a mountainous landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA 11:50am Concluding Remarks Noon MtnClim Adjourns with Lunch (Sandwich Bar; eat onsite or take to-go) 5 MtnClim 2010 Agenda for Post-Conference Managers Workshop Adapting to Climate Change on the Willamette National Forest: Hydrological Resources, Aquatic Systems, and Roads HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Blue River, OR; June 10, 2010; 1pm – 5pm Objectives • • Understand vulnerabilities of hydrological resources, aquatic systems, and roads to a warmer climate on Willamette National Forest Develop management strategies that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate on Willamette National Forest Facilitators, recorders: Jessica Halofsky, Dave Peterson 1:00 pm Introductions, Objectives 1:10 pm Welcome; Climate change objectives for Willamette NF Meg Mitchell 1:20 pm Management of hydrological resources, aquatic systems, and roads Kathy Bulchis 1:40 pm Effects of climate change on hydrology Gordon Grant 2:00 pm Effects of climate change on fish and aquatic systems Gordie Reeves 2:20 pm Adaptation strategies on Olympic National Forest Bob Metzger 2:40 pm Break 3:00 – 5:00 pm Develop adaptation strategies: Working session • Summarize key vulnerabilities WNF resource managers • Summarize potential adaptation approaches WNF resource managers • Establish priorities for adaptation All • Integrate across resource areas All • Discuss next steps for adapting to climate change on Willamette National Forest Meg Mitchell, Kathy Bulchis 6 Abstracts: MtnClim 2010 Alphabetic by Senior Author’s Last Name TALK-DEMONSTRATION DATA BASIN CLIMATE CENTER: SHARING AND MANIPULATING SPATIAL INFORMATION ON THE WEB Bachelet, Dominique, Conservation Biology Institute, Olympia, WA Monitoring datasets is essential to detect changes that are occurring and identify thresholds that cause them, but scientists around the world are now generating large volumes of data that vary in quality, format, supporting documentation, and accessibility. Moreover, diverse models are being run at various spatial and temporal scales to try and understand past climate variability and its impacts, generate future climate and land use scenarios, and project potential future impacts to the planet. Conservation practitioners and land managers are struggling to synthesize this wealth of information, identify relevant and usable datasets, and translate evolving science results into on-the-ground climate-aware strategies. In partnership with ESRI and Mambo media, the Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) is developing a versatile web-based resource (http://www.databasin.org) that centralizes usable climate change-relevant datasets and provides analytical tools to visualize, analyze, and communicate findings for practical applications. To illustrate its capability to store, manipulate, and derive relevant conclusions to users, I will present examples of projects that are part of the Climate Center of Data Basin involving scientists and managers, allowing all to access the data and develop more effective management strategies. POSTER INVESTIGATING TREE MORTALITY AT MULTIPLE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES IN THE BISHOP PINE FOREST ON SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CALIFORNIA Baguskas, Sara, Department of Geography, University of California-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA The rate of tree mortality has increased across the western United States in recent decades, and many studies attribute the cause to water stress induced by regional warming. To date, the geographical scope of study regions affected by widespread tree mortality in the American West has largely been limited to continental, montane climates. Much less is known about mortality events in other climatic regions, such as coastal forests. The relatively unvarying nature of the coastal, maritime climate has traditionally been assumed to buffer these forests from large climate variations; however, we have observed rapid tree mortality in this region which suggests coastal forests may be as susceptible to drought-induced mortality as inland forest locations. Santa Cruz Island (SCI), one of the California Channel Islands, harbors numerous relict and endemic plant species, including Bishop pine (Pinus muricata). Following extreme drought in southern California in two of the last three years (2007-2009), widespread mortality of Bishop pines has become evident. Bishop pine populations are restricted to the fog belt of coastal California and northern Baja California; therefore, a major reduction of existing populations on SCI would greatly reduce the distribution of the species as a whole. The focus of my research is to investigate the mechanisms underlying spatial and temporal patterns of Bishop pine mortality on SCI. I used remote sensing techniques to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of tree mortality and I have performed ground-data collection to validate remote-sensing results. Remote sensing in combination with field verification is a valuable tool to understand the spatiotemporal pattern of tree mortality and is a necessary step to help elucidate potential environmental and biological controls on tree mortality. 7 EVENING TALK A. E. DOUGLASS AND THE SEARCH FOR SOLAR CYCLES IN TREE RINGS Berger, W.H. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego Douglass (1867-1962) was a solar astronomer who sought to document the presence of solar cycles in tree rings. He believed he was successful (Douglass, 1920, 1933). It is not clear that he was. In any case, he pioneered a new kind of climatology, and he established the field of "dendrochronology," which allowed the dating of archeological sites containing wood (Douglass, 1935). Later on, detailed calibration of radiocarbon variation against calendar years became possible through the dating of tree rings. This calibration turned out to have a strong link to solar activity. Today, with access to long tree-ring records (thanks to the Laboratory in Tucson, and others), and using modern computers, Douglass’s ideas can be tested with some ease. We find that solar cycles are present in some instances, but are conspicuously absent in others. I hypothesize that the reason for a poor showing of the solar cycles is that solar effects are linked to lunar cycles. I suggest that "cryptic" solar cycles enter the climate record while beating with tides, whose influence stems from the effect of ocean oscillations on the position of the jet stream over North America. My hypothesis supports propositions of Lamb (1982) and of Cook and associates (1997), who previously considered that the climate record may reflect, to some degree, a combination of solar and tidal cycles. References Cook, E. R., D. M. Meko, and C. W. Stockton, 1997. A new assessment of possible solar and lunar forcing of the bidecadal drought rhythm in the western United States. J. Climate, 10, 1343-1356. Douglass, A.E., 1920. Evidence of climatic effects in the annual rings of trees. Ecology 1, 24-32. -- 1933. Tree growth and climatic cycles. The Scientific Monthly 37, 481-495. -- 1935. Dating Pueblo Bonito and other ruins of the Southwest. Nat. Geogr. Soc. Pueblo Bonito Ser. 1, 1-74. Lamb, H. H., 1982. Climate History and the Modern World. Methuen, London and New York, 387pp. INVITED TALK CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND MASS-TRANSPORT PROCESSES IN THE HIMALAYA Bookhagen, B., Geography Department, UC Santa Barbara, Ellison Hall 1832, Santa Barbara, CA Monsoonal rainfall in the Himalaya dominates erosion and sediment transport through the fluvial system. In addition to the strong seasonal nature of the Indian summer monsoon, striking interannual variations in monsoonal strength characterize the hydrologic and sediment records. For example, during any given year, rain may penetrate further into the orogen, even though peak rainfall amounts almost always occur at topographic barriers in regions with high relief, regardless of overall monsoonal strength. I will use a combination of remote-sensing techniques, field measurements, and chemical laboratory results to document the landscape response to climatic forcing factors. The timescales of this ongoing study range from years over decades to centuries and millennia. I will (1) present results using high spatial resolution rainfall-retrieval methodologies from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), (2) document spatiotemporal variations in rainfall and associated erosion process on the Earth surface, and (3) rely on sediment budget and field measurements as well as cosmogenic-nuclide inventories to decipher impacts of climatic variability on surface-erosion processes on longer timescales. I will emphasize the impact and magnitude of occasional extreme events on mass-transport processes in the Himalaya. Establishing a robust understanding and relation between processes are key for mitigating the filling of hydropower reservoirs and abrasion of hydropower turbines, as well as to sustaining infrastructure and successful agriculture in the downstream section of the Himalaya. 8 INVITED TALK FOREST DISTURBANCE IN MOUNTAIN ENVIRONMENTS: HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF INCREASING LANDSCAPE HETEROGENEITY Boon, Sarah, Burles, Katie, Dept. of Geography, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB, Mountain hydrology is dominated by snow accumulation and ablation, processes which are strongly affected by topography, climate and vegetation cover. Climate change has affected mountainous regions of Western North America through both direct impacts on the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt, and secondary effects such as increasing natural disturbance in the form of insect infestation and wildfire. Both disturbance types have significant impacts on the forest canopy, altering forest structure and subsequently affecting transfers of mass and energy between the ground surface and the atmosphere. These changes in forest structure have increased landscape heterogeneity in mountain regions by contributing to the development of a patchwork of healthy, disturbed, and regenerating stands. We discuss snow accumulation and melt processes in disturbed relative to healthy forest stands, and the implications of increased forest cover heterogeneity following disturbance for watershed-scale snow processes and runoff generation. INVITED TALK CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER SUPPLY PREDICTABILITY Levi Brekke, Reclamation Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO This study explores changes in water supply forecasting error associated with climate change, with a focus on snowmelt-dominated basins in the western U.S. While it has been well-studied that climate warming will reduce snowpack and alter associated monthly runoff patterns, it has not been well-studied how such hydrologic impacts may affect water supply forecasting error or the ability of current monitoring networks to support future forecasting services. The study focuses on a climatically diverse set of sub-basins within the Columbia Snake River Basin (e.g., cooler and wetter sub-basins in the Columbia River and Snake River headwaters; warmer and drier sub-basins in the Yakima, Deschutes and Snake tributaries). Methods involve selecting an ensemble of climate projections and using a distributed hydrologic model to simulate sub-basin hydroclimates (weather, snow, and runoff) representing historical and projected future conditions. A statistical procedure used by current federal forecast providers is then applied to generate water supply forecasts within these simulated sub-basin hydroclimates for a variety of forecast situations. Forecasts will be generated with different predictor sampling strategies (e.g., where precipitation and snow sampling from the hydrology model is constrained to grid locations near real-world modeling, and also where such sampling is permitted to occur at locations not currently monitored (higher elevation?)). Results are analyzed for change in forecast model error, and whether any change might be attributable to loss of snowpack as climate warms. Results will also be analyzed to understand how predictability impacts are sensitive to placement of monitoring networks. Presentation will summarize project findings and highlight their ramifications for climate change vulnerability assessments on reservoir operations and water management. Co-Investigators: Reclamation (Tom Pruitt), Univ. of Washington (Alan Hamlet, Marketa McGuire-Elsner), NWS CBRFC (Kevin Werner), NWS NWRFC (Don Laurine), NRCS (David Garen), USACE (Randall Wortman). 9 INVITED TALK THE RISK OF COMMUNICATING SCIENCE TO WILDFIRE MANAGERS Brown, Timothy J., Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV The risk of communicating science to wildland fire managers is increasing. Ecosystem and societal impacts from fire has placed an increased demand on information needs and decision-support tools for planning, mitigation and adaptation. Examples of impacts include long-term fire exclusion leading to reduced species diversity, hazardous fuels buildup and watershed function; vegetation stress from drought and tree mortality from beetle infestations associated with climate variability and change; expansion of the wildland-urban interface; human health related to smoke; economic costs for suppression and treatment strategies, among others. Decision-support tools, data and information have seemingly been increasing exponentially since the late 1970s, and federal fire policy, especially since the implementation of the 2000 National Fire Plan, has been inclusive of science in goals such as hazardous fuel reduction and restoration of fire adapted ecosystems. The current interagency 10-year cohesive strategy currently in preparation has a strong science-based focus. How best to effectively communicate science and uncertainties to decision makers is a continuing conversation, and there are formal efforts being implemented such as, for example, the Joint Fire Science Program regional science delivery and outreach consortia. In this presentation, key fire management policy and planning guide issues will be discussed, along with how these are or might be informed by science. Perspectives on the openness and capacity to accept and utilize science-based information in fire management will be discussed. Some thoughts on how to further advance science communication in the fire world will be offered. POSTER SNOW MELT ENERGY BALANCE IN A BURNED FOREST STAND, CROWSNEST PASS, ALBERTA, CANADA: RESULTS FROM THE 2009 FIELD SEASON Burles, Katie, and Boon, Sarah, Department of Geography, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB Forest disturbance ultimately opens the forest canopy which plays a major role in the snow melt energy balance, attenuates incoming shortwave radiation, windspeed, temperature, snow accumulation, and increasing incoming longwave radiation. This presentation outlines results from the 2009 winter field 2 program analyzing the impacts of wildfire on snowmelt energetics within two 2500 m stands in the area of the 2003 Lost Creek fire in the Crowsnest Pass (AB). Meteorological data collected in both a healthy and burned forest stand were used to calculate the snow melt energy balance. Output values were validated with snow measurements collected during the 2009 spring season. Shortwave radiation was the largest contributor to snow melt in both forest stands with 127% higher inputs in the burned than the healthy site. The removal of forest canopy caused the longwave flux in the burned site to be 551% lower than the healthy site indicating the flux to be primarily diverging from the snow surface. Higher wind speeds resulted in 65% higher sensible and 175% lower latent heat fluxes in the burned relative to the healthy forest site. Ground heat flux contributions to snow melt were limited, but were observed to be slightly higher in the burned site which corresponded with warmer ground temperatures and lower soil moisture. Although 16 cm more snow water equivalent accumulated at peak snow pack in the burned site, it melted more rapidly and subsequently complete snow pack removal occurred seven days sooner than the healthy site. Study results are the first to quantify energy flux differences in burned versus healthy forest sites, and provide new data that can be used to improve parameterization of large scale watershed models used to assess runoff response to disturbance. 10 POSTER CLIMATE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE OUTBREAK SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES Creeden, Eric P. (1), Hicke, Jeffrey A. (1,2), (1) Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, (2) USDA Forest Service, Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Prineville, OR Research examining mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins; MPB) outbreaks in lodgepole pine (PInus contorta) forests across the western United States will be presented. The spatial distribution of the MPB species covers a large geographical extent and encompasses a variety of different climatic regimes. MPB outbreaks have occurred across the entire beetles’ range indicating forest susceptibility to attack over much of the region. Drought stress on host trees has commonly been cited as a precursor to outbreak for some bark beetle species, and temperature plays a direct role in the timing and duration of the events of the MPB’s life cycle. Several large regions of MPB outbreak across the western US were selected for analysis, and gridded monthly climate data from the PRISM dataset were compiled for each location. Temporal trends in temperature and precipitation were analyzed at annual, seasonal, and monthly time intervals. Climate conditions prior, during, and following outbreaks will be examined to determine if climate effects on MPB outbreaks can be detected using monthly climatic data. INVITED TALK LINKS BETWEEN THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF CLIMATE: IMPLICATIONS FOR MAPPING THE FUTURE Daly, Christopher, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR It is generally recognized that long-term mean climate varies spatially over complex terrain, responding to factors such as elevation and coastal proximity. It is also generally assumed that climatic variations in time are not strongly affected by these factors, and should be fairly consistent on a regional basis. For example, when one location has a warmer than normal summer, other nearby locations are expected to have had a similarly warm summer. The assumption of temporal synchrony of climate is made in every analysis for which data from an off-site meteorological station are used to represent historical trends and variations at a location of interest. Most methods for downscaling climate change projections from coarsegrid general circulation models do so, as well. There is growing evidence that the assumption of spatial synchrony in climate variations does not hold everywhere and in all situations. It appears that many of the same physiographic features on the earth’s surface that are responsible for steep spatial gradients in mean climate, such as coastal proximity and topographic position, can also play an important role in creating gradients in climate trends and variations. Thus, these factors must be accounted for when mapping both historical and projected climate variations. Examples of the links between the spatial and temporal aspects of climate are presented from the northern California coast, the western Oregon Cascades, and northeastern Utah. Implications for mapping and downscaling future climates are discussed. TALK VIEWS FROM CLIMATE SPACE REVEAL MISSING ASSETS IN CONSERVATION PORTFOLIOS AND PRIORITIZE FOR BUILDING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Davison, Jennifer E. (1), Graumlich, Lisa J. (1), Rowland, Erika (1), Pederson, Gregory T. (1,2), and Breshears, David D. (1,3), (1) University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources and Environment, Tucson, AZ, (2) US Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT, (3) University of Arizona, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tucson, AZ Changing climate poses a conundrum for conservation of biodiversity: both future climate regimes and responses of species are uncertain, but conservation strategies traditionally rely on stationary bioclimatic relationships to inform decision-making. Even current conservation strategies in the face of climate 11 change, including connecting suitable habitat and enhancing the quality of less-protected “matrix” lands, may not effectively hedge against the uncertainties of future bioclimatic interactions. We address this issue with a new approach for diversifying conservation portfolios: identification of unprotected landscapes in “climate space”—exemplified here by using climatic constraints across the southwestern USA—that represent potential missing assets relative to protected lands. This approach augments climate change adaptation by accounting for full ranges of climatic conditions as a proxy for biodiversity, and reveals which lands might provide strategic additions for preserving species and associated ecological assemblages. The climate space approach can be applied at scales from ecosystems to regions, and considers both protection status and ownership of lands, enabling improved planning within and across land holdings. Conservation strategies that explicitly consider climate space, in addition to spatial connectivity and matrix management, may provide prioritization for building adaptive capacity, leading to more robust protection of biological diversity and ecosystem function. INVITED TALK CONSTRUCTING ARKSTORM--AN EXTREME STORM SCENARIO FOR EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS IN CALIFORNIA Dettinger, Michael, USGS (1), Ralph Martin (2) Hughes, Mimi (2), Das, Tapash (3) Paul Neiman (4) Dale Cox (5), (1) Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, (2) NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, (3) Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, (4) NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, (5) USGS Multihazards Program, Sacramento, CA The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies and experts to evaluate hazards that would be associated with a scientifically plausible series of extreme winter storms in California. The scenario consists of a storm sequence that impacts both Southern and Northern California in rapid th succession, and that is more severe overall than any single 20 century storm, but that may rival the extreme storms of 1861-62. The atmospheric and hydrological characteristics of the storms are quantified to provide the basis for other teams to estimate human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts. The scenario will be used to design emergency preparedness and flood planning exercises by federal, state and local agencies. Recent storm episodes were “stitched” together to describe a rapid sequence of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond any that occurred during the individual (unstitched) historical events. This stitching approach is a new strategy that allowed the scenario-design team to avoid arbitrary scalings to achieve much greater-thanhistorical storm and flood totals, by instead allowing for the very real occasions when storms stall over parts of the state and when extreme storms have followed each other into the state over short periods of time. The scenario—called the ARkStorm—is quantified by a dynamical (regional WRF weather model) downscaling of historical observations of extreme winter storms of January 1969 and February 1986 to 6km and 2-km grids over California. The weather model outputs were used to force a hydrologic model to estimate runoff, for comparison with historical runoff. The methods used to build this scenario, and key results, could also be applied to other, nonemergency or non-California applications. TALK WIDESPREAD SHIFTS IN STAND STRUCTURE OF SUBALPINE CONIFERS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA OVER THE LAST 75 YEARS Dolanc, Christopher R.;Thorne, James H. University of California, Davis, Davis, CA Despite numerous model predictions, it is unclear how vegetation will respond to climate and other factors of global change over the next 100 years. One way to increase our predictive resolution is to understand how vegetation has changed in the last few decades. From 2007-2009, we re-sampled 139 plots originally surveyed for the Vegetation Type Mapping (VTM) project from 1929-1934. Although VTM plots were located throughout much of California, we focused on high-elevations (> 2600 m) of the central Sierra Nevada, a region predicted to lose most of its subalpine/alpine vegetation over the next century. Re-sampling was designed to extract equivalent data to that of VTM plots, to facilitate comparisons 12 between modern and historic conditions. Compared to VTM conditions, densities of small-diameter trees (10.0-30.3 cm) are significantly higher in modern plots while densities of large trees (> 60.9 cm) are significantly lower. This trend is apparent across multiple site types within the study area: exposed and protected aspects, gentle and steep slopes, lower and higher elevational bands, and northern and southern plots. Density of small-diameter trees was higher in modern plots for all eight conifer species sampled, representing increases of 16-159%. These increases were observed, both for species predicted to move upslope, such as red fir (Abies magnifica), as well as treeline species such as whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). Overall, the structure of modern subalpine stands appears very different than 75 years ago. Although there are potentially multiple factors at play, such widespread changes are indicative of a strong, broad-scale factor such as climate change. INVITED TALK Duffy, Phil POSTER INTERACTING EFFECTS OF LAND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ECOHYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS OF THE SEMI-ARID SANTA FE MUNICIPAL WATERSHED Dugger, Aubrey L. (1), Tague, Christina (1), Allen, Craig D. (2), Ringler, Todd (3), (1), Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA (2) United States Geological Survey, Jemez Mountains Field Station, Los Alamos, NM (3) Los Alamos National Laboratory, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos, NM Current regional climate models predict overall warming in the Southwest U.S. along with increased drying and potential shifts in the timing and intensity of precipitation events. While climate controls on the water budget through precipitation inputs and the timing of snow accumulation and melt are critical in semi-arid mountain watersheds, we also expect vegetation water use and productivity changes to exert a strong control on the distribution, timing, and quantity of water availability. Given that management practices can significantly alter the structure and density of vegetation, land management has the potential to either mitigate or exacerbate certain climate change impacts on the water system. Our main goal is to examine climate, subsurface, and vegetation interactions in the semi-arid Santa Fe Municipal Watershed to determine the dominant controls on streamflow as well as the envelope of expected hydrologic behavior under potential climate and land management changes. We use a process-based, spatially distributed, integrated hydro-ecological model (RHESSys) to simulate water and vegetation carbon cycling. Specifically, we build a physically-based model calibrated for soil and effective drainage parameters and apply a range of climate inputs based on historical variability and forced with extremes in projected climate shifts. We then investigate the spatially and seasonally variable responses of vegetation, the timing and amounts of streamflow, and the interactions between these processes under different land management and disturbance schemes. This modeling exercise produces a series of probability distributions for annual and seasonal streamflow yields under various conditions, which under a statistical lens reveals the dominant controls on the magnitude and timing of streamflow. Results from this analysis will highlight confounding (or mitigating) impacts on the vulnerability of water yields to climate change. POSTER THE CHANGING GLACIERS OF MT. HOOD, OREGON AND MT. RAINIER, WASHINGTON: IMPLICATIONS FOR PERIGLACIAL DEBRIS FLOWS Ellinger, J.R. and Nolin, A.W. Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. Mountain glaciers are receding worldwide with numerous consequences including changes in hydrology and geomorphology. This study focuses on changes in glacier area on Mt. Hood, Oregon and Mt. Rainier, Washington, where damaging debris flows have occurred in glacierized basins. We use Landsat imagery to map debris-free glacier area for nearly every year from 1984-2009 and we compare these glacier areas 13 with previously mapped glacier outlines. Debris-free glacier ice is clearly delineated using a ratio of Landsat spectral bands in the near-infrared part of the spectrum (bands 4 & 5). Changes in debris-free glacier area are mapped to produce the most up-to-date rates of glacier retreat. Airborne LiDAR data are used to compute glacier slopes to thereby produce actual glacier area and to characterize the geomorphology in debris flow areas. We find that locations of debris flow initiation sites are co-located with locations of recent glacier retreat. In future work, we examine temperature records from nearby sites to explore relationships between seasonal temperature and temporal patterns of glacier retreat. POSTER WESTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM OUTBREAK, CLIMATE, AND FIRE INTERACTIONS IN THE MIXED CONIFER FORESTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST Flower, Aquila (1), Gavin, Dan G. (1), Heyerdahl, Emily K. (2), Parsons, Russel A. (2), (1) Department of Geography, University of Oregon, (2) Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Science Laboratory, Missoula The mixed conifer forests of northeastern Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana are subject to frequent extensive fires and damaging outbreaks of insect defoliators. These forests are particularly susceptible to outbreaks of the western spruce budworm (WSBW), which is widely considered to be the most damaging defoliator insect in the forests of western North America. During the late 20th century the extent and severity of fires and insect outbreaks have increased in this forest type, with both climate change and fire suppression often invoked as potential causes. However, while the theory that there are complex causal relationships and feedback loops between insect outbreaks, climatic variability, and wildfires is often mentioned in journal articles, little is actually known about the causal mechanisms governing interactions among insects, fire, and climate and their effects on fuel and fire behavior. The observational record is too short in much of western North America to provide us with a sound understanding of these ecological interactions, and few long-term, annually resolved paleoecological reconstructions of disturbances have been completed in this region. To address this knowledge gap, we are employing dendroecological methods to elucidate the causal relationships between climatic variability, fires, and WSBW outbreaks along a transect running from northeastern Oregon to northwestern Montana. Preliminary results are reported for one site sampled during summer 2009 in Oregon. An additional 14+ sites will be sampled during summer 2010 and 2011. At each site along the transect, dendrochronological methods will be used to reconstruct records of WSBW outbreaks, fire occurrences, climatic variability, and tree establishment dates. A suite of statistical techniques will be used to assess these records for spatial and temporal synchroneity within each disturbance type at different sites and between different disturbance types at each site, as well as to quantify the relationship between climatic variability and disturbances. POSTER CLIMATE, SNOW AND THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF SUBALPINE MEADOWS AT MOUNT RAINIER NATIONAL PARK Ford, Kevin R. (1), Zhou, Xiaochi (2), Lundquist, Jessica D. (2), Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke (1), (1) Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, (2) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA Climate plays a fundamental role in determining the geographic distributions of species. As a result, the st large changes in climate predicted for the 21 century have the potential to induce substantial shifts in the ranges of many species which could result in widespread extinction and ecosystem collapse. Thus, characterizing the relationship between species distributions and climate is important for researchers hoping to forecast ecological impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, the most widely available climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are not necessarily directly important to organisms. Instead, organisms are often influenced by other variables that are, in turn, heavily influenced by climate. The subalpine meadow plant species of Mount Rainier National Park are an example of organisms that are 14 sensitive to climate, but more through the indirect effects of climate on snowpack than the direct effects of temperature and precipitation. Thus, we used estimates of average temperature and precipitation to map average values of snowpack size and snow cover duration across the park. These values were then used as input variables, along with temperature and precipitation, for models of subalpine meadow distribution. When we simulate temperature increases in the park, the models show drastic declines in the extent of potential subalpine habitat due to upward shifts of habitat with warming and the fact that there is less land available at higher elevations. However, models that included snow parameters as explanatory variables predicted substantially smaller reductions than models with only temperature and precipitation. The inclusion of these biologically relevant snow variables into subalpine habitat modeling will probably provide managers with more realistic estimates of how much potential subalpine habitat will shrink in a warming world. POSTER THE RAPID RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN THE CONTINENTAL US Fountain, Andrew, Department of Geology, Portland State University, Portland, OR From aerial and ground-based images we reconstructed the glacial history over the past century for throughout the western US, excluding Alaska. Since about 1900, the glaciers have shrunk about 45% with the maximum shrinkage at Glacier National Park of 57%. The glaciers of the Olympics and Mount Rainier have shrunk the least, about 40%. The temporal pattern of change follows the global pattern, rapid decrease in the 1930s followed by an equilibrium or advance during the 1960s to 1970s, followed again by a retreat and acceleration over the last decade. The overall climatic cause of glacier retreat has not been changes in precipitation, but rather changes in air temperature. For glaciers below 3000 m we infer that the retreat results from decreased winter snowfall, as the state of precipitation changes from snow to rain due to warming winter temperatures, in addition to warming summer temperatures. For glaciers above 3000m they are retreating due to warming spring and summer air temperatures. From a land management perspective, glacier shrinkage imposes important changes on the character of high alpine hydrology, the ecosystems that depend on glacial runoff, and on the recreational use of these regions. POSTER STREAMFLOW RESPONSES TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND POTENTIAL CHANGES IN FOREST STRUCTURE AND SPECIES COMPOSITION Garcia, Elizabeth (1), Tague, Christina (2), Choate, Janet (2), (1) Department of Geography, University of California at Santa Barbara, (2) Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California at Santa Barbara Recent studies suggest that forests in the Western U.S. are experiencing increases in background mortality rates and there is also evidence of increases in drought stress related dieback and disturbance losses due to wildfire and insects. These changes may accelerate climate driven changes in forest structure and composition. Since streamflow patterns are correlated to vegetation water use and extent, we hypothesize that replacement tree populations may combine with climate drivers to impact the timing and amount of streamflow. In this model-based study, we examine how factors such as forest structure and species affect hydrologic responses in a coniferous forest in the Western Oregon Cascades. We use the Regional Hydrologic Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate forest growth, transpiration, evapotranspiration and streamflow in the HJ Andrews LTER site. Scenarios consider different cover fractions and spatial arrangements of key species, including Douglas Fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Western Hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and red alder (Alnus rubrus). We explore how spatially explicit distributions of tree species effect hydrologic response on a watershed scale. We model these watershed scale responses under historic climate variability and simple climate warming scenarios. We also examine the sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainty related to soil drainage characteristics. Model results emphasize the importance of riparian species as a control on the amount of summer streamflow 15 and highlight the potential hydrologic consequences of changes in forest composition in a changing climate. INVITED TALK A PLAUSIBLE RANGE: SOME OBSERVATIONS ON HOW RESOURCE MANAGERS ARE TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES Garfin, Gregg M. (1), Cross, Molly, (2), Brundiers, Katja (3), Enquist, Carolyn (4), Bark, Rosalind (1), Gori, David (4), Gober, Patricia (3), McCarthy, Patrick (4), Jacobs, Katharine (1), (1) The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (2) Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT, (3) Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, (4) The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, Santa Fe, NM A combination of sustained drought, big, fast ecosystem changes, such as widespread forest mortality across western North America, and rapid urban population growth in semiarid North America has raised awareness regarding the vulnerability of both water supplies and ecosystems to climate changes.. We describe and contrast researcher-decisionmaker partnerships in water management with those in ecosystem management. We specifically examine the nexus of adaptation planning, uncertainty, and the roles of scientists and resource managers, respectively, in these processes. In general, resource managers need (a) information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, (b) region-specific projections of climate changes and their impacts, (c) frank and honest discussion of an array of uncertainties, that include those due to modeling, SRES estimates, institutional, policy and economic factors, and (d) opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Research scientists play critical roles in adaptation planning discussions, because the results of their research forms one basis of policy changes, they assist resource managers in clarifying the cascade of interactions leading to potential impacts and, importantly, because decisionmakers want to hear the information straight from the scientists conducting the research. The latter bolsters credibility. What is emerging from these endeavors is: (a) climate change projections and research alone are not enough to motivate change, because the peer-reviewed literature requires interpretation and decisonmakers lack the time to keep up with the sheer volume of publications; (b) a combination of estimates of future climate/environment states and discussion support to explore multiple future scenarios and research nuances is needed to move beyond “uncertainty paralysis,” and (c) iterative and ongoing engagements are necessary to build trust and bolster science credibility. Co-production of science and policy by research scientists, science translators, and decisionmakers, as co-equals, is essential for moving adaptation planning forward. TALK STREAMFLOW RESPONSE TO CLIMATE WARMING IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS: INTEGRATING THE EFFECTS OF SNOWPACK AND GROUNDWATER DYNAMICS Grant, Gordon E. (1), Tague, Christina (2), and Jefferson, Anne (3), (1) USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR; (2) Bren School, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA; Univeristy of North Caroloina – Charlotte, Charlotte, NC Spatial patterns of summer streamflow in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon vary dramatically between the geologically distinct High and Western Cascade regions. A key control is the partitioning of water input between a fast-draining shallow subsurface flow network (Western Cascades) versus a slowdraining deeper groundwater system (High Cascades). These differences result from large contrasts in rock permeability, porosity, and drainage density between landscapes dominated by the older Western Cascade versus younger High Cascade volcanic rocks. How do these geologically-based differences in groundwater storage capacity affect streamflow response to projected climatic warming? We initially expected that for the High Cascades of Oregon and Northern California, large groundwater storage will lead to groundwater recharge independent of precipitation type (rain or snow), thereby buffering low flows against potential changes in snowpack volume due to warming 16 climate. We also expected that low groundwater storage in the older volcanic and granitic landscapes of Oregon and California will result in greater sensitivity to diminished snowpacks and summer streamflow changes. By coupling simple theory with hydrologic modeling, we found that interpreting low flow response to warming involves a convolution of both the snowpack and groundwater dynamics. Using this approach, the High Cascades displays much greater low flow sensitivity to climate change than the Western Cascades. Because the High Cascades discharge groundwater throughout the summer season, both timing of recession and annual fluctuations in total precipitation are reflected in changes in late summer streamflow. The Western Cascades in contrast, displays much less late season sensitivity to changing climate; streamflow is always very low in late summer regardless of winter recharge. We extend these results across the entire western Cordillera and consider implications for water supply in the future. These results imply that current models linking climate and streamflow changes need to account for differences in groundwater storage as a first-order control. POSTER FROM ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS TO RIVERS OF DEBRIS: COUPLING EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS, GLACIAL RETREAT, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND CHANNEL CHANGES ON MOUNT RAINIER, WASHINGTON Grant, Gordon E. (1), Anne Nolin (2), Stephen Lancaster (2), Elizabeth Copeland (2), Jonathan Ellinger (2), Lauren Parker (2), Paul Kennard (3), Ian Delaney (4); (1) USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR; (2) Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR;(3) Mt. Rainier National Park, Ashford, WA; (4) Whitman College, Walla Walla, WA Extreme floods are the terminal link in a chain of causality and processes that extends from the atmosphere to the watershed. In the Cascade Mountains of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, links in this chain include extremely high precipitation embedded in streams of subtropical moisture; steep slopes of active stratovolcanoes mantled in large volumes of debris, and over-steepened channels left by rapidly retreating glaciers. The consequences of these process linkages include extremely destructive debris flows and floods that are capable of stripping lower elevation old-growth forests, and destroying infrastructure. We describe these linkages on Mt. Rainier, Washington, and evaluate the potential impact of climate warming on these complex processes. We evaluate the frequency and dynamics of flood generating storms, controls on debris flow initiation and runout, spatial patterns of disturbance to riparian forests, and historical trends in frequency of debris flows and floods. Climate warming can potentially affect these linkages by: 1) changing the frequency or intensity of driving storms; 2) changing the frequency or extent of precursory rain or snowfall; or 3) forcing glacial retreat thereby changing the spatial distribution of initiating sites; We explore the implications for the future of rivers draining large volcanoes and other types of mountains in the Pacific Northwest. INVITED TALK LESSONS LEARNED ON COMMUNICATIONS FROM SIX YEARS OF MOUNTAIN RESEARCH INSTITUTE (MRI) Greenwood, Greg Mountain Research Initiative, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Providing advice on sustainable mountain development is one of MRI's four basics tasks. Over the past six years, MRI has considered a range of ways to fulfill that mandate, from basic print and webmedia to the incorporation of transdisciplinarity into project design. I will review this trajectory and summarize what we have learned about effective communication. 17 POSTER ADAPTING NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE OLYMPIC CASE STUDY Halofsky, Jessica E. (1), Peterson, David L. (2), (1) University of Washington, School of Forest Resources, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, (2) U.S. Forest Service Fire and Environmental Research Applications Team, 400 N. 34th St., Suite 201, Seattle, WA Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, process, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We initiated a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest, with Olympic National Park as a partner, to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula to climate change. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, vegetation, wildlife, and fisheries). The process produced concrete adaptation options for Olympic National Forest and Park, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process can be used as a model for other National Forests, National Parks, and natural resource agencies in adapting to climate change. In addition, many of the ideas generated through this process could be adapted and applied in other locations and in other agencies. TALK RESPONDING TO EVOLVING STAKEHOLDER NEEDS FOR 21ST CENTURY HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS: AN OVERVIEW OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS PROJECT Hamlet, A.F. (1,2), Elsner, M.M. (2), (1) Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, (2) Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington In collaboration with the WA State Dept. of Ecology and a group of regional stakeholders in OR, WA, ID, MT, and BC, the Climate Impacts Group has conducted a two-year climate change study over the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in WA and OR. The study, which is one of the most comprehensive of its type in the country, provides detailed hydrologic data for 297 river locations in the PNW as well as a regional database of gridded hydrological data over the entire study domain (http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/). Using climate change scenarios from the 10 best global climate models for the Pacific Northwest from the IPCC AR4 and three different statistical downscaling approaches, the study provides hydrological data for 77 climate change scenarios designed to support water resources planning as well as terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems research. The draft study results are already being used by a wide range of regional stakeholders including the USGS, Bonneville Power Administration, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Boise Aquatic Research Laboratory, and the National Marine Fisheries Science Center. POSTER LONG-TERM TRENDS IN STREAMFLOW IN LARGE BASINS OF WESTERN OREGON: DISENTANGLING CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS AND LAND USE LEGACIES Hatcher, Kendra L. Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Global climate change has led to increased average temperatures in western Oregon. Scientists have speculated that increased temperatures have decreased the snow to rain ratio and increased 18 evapotranspiration rates, reducing spring and summer discharges. During the period of changing climatic conditions, large areas of forest were harvested in the western Cascades of Oregon. Research has shown that land use changes within a basin can impact stream flow. Initially, stream flow increases due to reduced evapotranspiration and increased direct runoff. Over time, however, the growing trees may create a summer flow deficit from pre-harvest values due to the intense water use of a young forest. Understanding how much stream flows may decline is very important for natural resource management in a region balancing dams and salmon recovery efforts. While widespread climate change should result in regional reductions in stream flow, declines may not be homogeneous throughout the area if the land use changes vary between basins. To focus on the impacts of land use change on large basins, paired watersheds within the western Cascades, ranging from 6,400 ha to 64,500 ha, will be analyzed using long term datasets. Stream flow records dating back to the 1950s will be combined with PRISM precipitation grids to calculate runoff ratios from 1950 to 2002. Vegetation data will be used to determine the percentage of clearcuts and certain age cohorts within each basin through time. POSTER A FIRST GLANCE INTO THE CLEARWATER REFUGIUM OF NORTHERN IDAHO: A PRELIMINARY POLLEN RECORD FROM DISMAL LAKE Herring, E.M. and Gavin, D.G. Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon Several recent studies have shown that during the Pleistocene glaciations (>11,200 years BP) species distributions were not uniformly shifted to the south. Instead, several northern “cryptic” refugia for warmadapted species occurred proximal to the ice sheets. In the Clearwater drainage of northern Idaho, modern distributions and genetic studies of several herbaceous plants and amphibians support the existence of refugia for mesic-adapted species. The Clearwater is unique because most mesic-adapted species in this region are disjunct from their main coastal distribution, and therefore alternative hypotheses for this disjunction involve persistence in refugia or long-distance dispersal from the coast. No paleoecological studies exist in the unglaciated Clearwater Refugium from which to assess regional vegetation changes. A 10-m-long sediment core was extracted from Dismal Lake, located 120 km south of the maximum extent of the Cordilleran ice-sheet and is currently surrounded by a Tsuga mertensiana forest. Initial pollen analysis on the ca. 16,500-year-long record suggests that nearly all of the tree species present at the site today increased in abundance enough to be detected in the pollen record by 13,000 years ago. However, T. mertensiana appears to be a recent component of the forest, arriving only about 700 years ago in northern Idaho. The timing of the T. mertensiana arrival from this sediment core is consistent with another paleoecological record further north (in British Columbia) with a slightly earlier arrival (ca. 1000 years ago). These two lines of evidence suggest that T. mertensiana increased and expanded its distribution relatively recently. Today, T. mertensiana is associated with high snowfall and is closely associated spatially with the low-elevation mesic-adapted species that may have comprised the Clearwater Refugium. The timing of its increase in the Dismal Lake core is inconsistent with T. mertensiana existing within the Clearwater Refugium. Rather, the pollen evidence suggests an earlysuccessional cold dry forest consisting of Pinus contorta and Artemisia. Reconciling this vegetation history with the evidence of refugia will likely involve assessing topographically-influenced microclimates of mesic-adapted species could persist during glacial- and late-glacial climates. POSTER ESTIMATING CLIMATE INFLUENCES ON MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON USING STATISTICAL MODELING Hicke, Jeffrey A. (1), Preisler, Haiganoush (2), (1) University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, (2) USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Albany, CA Insect outbreaks are major forest disturbances, affecting millions of hectares of forest in western North America in recent decades. Mountain pine beetle is the most damaging insect species; a favored host is lodgepole pine. Climate is a known influence of mountain pine beetle outbreaks through winter mortality 19 of larvae, synchronization of mass attack and life stage development influenced by year-round temperatures, and drought stress on host trees. Here we present results of a statistical analysis of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Washington and Oregon. We use the number of trees killed from 1980-2006 as the response variable, and consider various explanatory variables that include climate, climate suitability model results, and beetle populations. We find that the best model includes beetle pressure (a measure of beetle populations), winter temperatures, and drought stress on trees (as represented by cumulative precipitation over five years). Climate variables provided somewhat improved predictive capability over a model with beetle pressure alone. Climate suitability model results did not improve statistical model performance compared with climate variables (e.g., temperature). The best statistical model predicted accurate time series and maps of Washington and Oregon beetle populations compared with observed values. We conclude that climate is important for accurate predictions of beetle populations, especially in transition time periods such as population decline. TALK THE HEAT IS ON: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS HilleRisLambers, Janneke, Ettinger, Ailene K., Ford, Kevin R., Biology Department, University of Washington, Seattle WA One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how global climate change will affect species distributions. Because range limits are often determined by species physiological tolerances to abiotic factors like temperature, rapid rates of warming will likely result in range shifts upslope and polewards. Quantifying the magnitude and rate of these range shifts is therefore critical for planning conservation and management responses to a future warmer world. To understand the impacts of climate change on species distributions, my lab studies the distribution and demography of six conifer species (Douglas fir, Western red cedar, Western hemlock, Pacific silver fir, Yellow cedar, Mountain hemlock) across large climatic gradients at Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington. Using climate envelope models, we show that focal species will have to expand their upper altitudinal ranges by up to 3-6 kilometers in the next 50 years to fill areas rendered climatically suitable by climate change. These rates exceed many measures of migration capacity for trees, implying that dominant conifers in Western Washington will not be able to keep pace with climate change. Short-term range shifts in response to global warming will therefore be difficult to predict due to these lagged dynamics, without more information on the range expansion rates that species can achieve. More generally, our findings are troubling because pristine mountainous regions such as Mount Rainier, with steep gradients in climate and unfragmented habitats, provide a best-case scenario for organisms responding to climate change. Even mountainous regions may therefore not sufficiently buffer organisms from population declines in the face of climate change. TALK WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING PHYSICAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND SOCIAL SYSTEMS IN AND NEAR THE ANDREWS FOREST, OREGON Jones, Julia (1), Betts, Matthew (1), Black, Bryan (1), Bond , Barbara (1), Daly , Chris (1)Gosnell, Hannah (1), Harmon, Mark (1), Johnson, Sherri (2), Nolin, Anne (1), Shafer, Sarah (3), Tepley, Alan (1), Spies, Tom (2), Swanson, Fred (2). (1) Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, (2) US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR, (3) US Geological Survey, Corvallis, OR Since the 1950s at the Andrews Forest, January and spring (March to May) temperatures have increased by up to 2 °C, April snowpack, and spring streamflow has declined, but winter and summer streamflow has not changed, and there have been no detectable changes in seasonal or annual precipitation, vapor pressure, or wind. At relatively exposed hill slope and ridge top locations, air temperatures are highly coupled to changes in upper atmosphere circulation patterns, while in sheltered valley bottoms, cold air pooling at night and during winter causes temperatures to be largely decoupled from, and relatively insensitive to upper atmosphere circulation. Episodes of extensive wildfire in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warmer and dryer than average climate conditions, but the relationship between historical 20 climate and fire is variable across the region. Despite increases in winter temperatures, no significant trend has been found in tree growth rates in the past 100 years in the vicinity of the Andrews Forest. Tree mortality is increasing in western forests, but records of mortality from the old-growth forest reference stands in the Andrews Forest (measured since before 1970) are too variable to define a clear trend. Forest ecosystem carbon exchange processes may be sensitive to climate-induced changes in summer precipitation. We are testing the hypothesis that the complex terrain of the HJA Andrews may enable birds to adapt to shifts in climate by moving across elevation gradients to cooler, moister sites with higher relative food abundance. Global climate change and associated state and federal legislation aimed at greenhouse gas reductions may have a variety of socioeconomic impacts on Oregon's farm, forest and ranch owners. The U.S. Forest Service has developed a national guidance for dealing with climate change but has yet to implement plans and actions at regional and national forest scales. TALK ASSESSING POTENTIAL TRADEOFFS IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AND FIRE MANAGEMENT IN A MOUNTAINOUS LANDSCAPE ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, WASHINGTON, USA Kennedy, Rebecca S.H., USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Corvallis, OR Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential and high potential to sustain older forest and other forest structural types for threatened and valued wildlife species, via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, and its effects on ecosystem services, I assessed potential effects of fire management (no suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration and wildlife habitat in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and older forest habitat was reduced in early decades, but early successional habitat increased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario but spatial patterns differed. Some areas of the landscape served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire and may be promising as anchors for the maintenance of habitat in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change. INVITED TALK A MAMMAL’S TAKE ON THE RAPTURE HYPOTHESIS, JACOB’S LADDER, AND OTHER NOTIONS OF DOOM, GLOOM, AND UNIFORM CHANGE IN ALPINE ECOSYSTEMS Klinger, Rob USGS-BRD Yosemite Field Station-Bishop Office. Bishop, California It is often assumed that warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns will result in decreased range, lower abundance, and the possible extirpation of many alpine mammal species. These changes would result either as a direct result of physiological stress from a warmer climate or indirectly from loss or alteration of habitat. The most likely reason for loss or alteration of habitat would be from a uniform upward shift in conifer species, with many alpine meadow areas, which provide critical habitat for most alpine mammal species, undergoing a transition to tree-dominated communities. While it is possible, and 21 maybe even likely, that changes in alpine mammal communities could occur, the perception of the extent, direction and magnitude of these changes has been shaped principally from a climatic perspective. Climate sets broad limits on the biogeographic extent of animal and plant species ranges, but many other factors influence their regional and local distribution and abundance. Here I present the conceptual framework and preliminary data from a long-term, multi-scale study examining changes in the distribution and abundance of five alpine mammal species in the Sierra Nevada and White Mountains of eastern California, and the degree to which plant-animal interactions influence dynamics between meadow and conifer vegetation communities. We have hypothesized that climate-related changes in distribution and abundance of alpine mammals will be species-specific, with some species affected primarily by physiological stress, other species by changes in habitat, and others by altered forage quantity or quality. Our hypothesis does not imply that climatic shifts will result in more restricted ranges and lower abundance for all five species. Rather, some species could be unaffected or even benefit from shifts in climate. Moreover, while climate could potentially trigger changes in alpine vegetation communities, feedbacks between climate and trophic interactions may result in mammals “managing their own habitat.” Mammals play extremely important roles as herbivores and granivores in alpine ecosystems, so interactions between abiotic attributes of alpine ecosystems and biotic processes could lead to multiple pathways resulting in alternative states for both wildlife and vegetation communities. POSTER A MOISTURE BALANCE DROUGHT INDEX FOR THE SEMIARID WEST Lenart, Melanie (1), Ellis, Andrew (2), Garfin, Gregg (1), Pace, Matthew (2), (1) The University of Arizona Tucson, AZ, (2) Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ Efforts to monitor and portray drought status are hampered by reliance on indices that contain regional biases and limited relationship to the multiple dimensions of drought. Many decision-makers are loath to take management actions based on drought-status information derived from complex and arcane drought indices. Use of the Standardized Precipitation Index, a solution preferred by many climatologists, ignores half of the hydrologic equation – the temperature-driven climatic demand for water. This is a critical problem in the southwestern United States, where evaporative loss dominates the hydrologic budget during summer; thus, despite comparable seasonal totals, summer precipitation is rendered less effective than winter precipitation. We seek to enhance the array of drought monitoring tools by introducing an easily understood hydroclimatic index, called the Moisture Balance Drought Index (MBDI). We define the MBDI as the difference between supply, precipitation (P), and demand, potential evapotranspiration (PE), which is primarily driven by air temperature when assessing conditions on a monthly or seasonal resolution. We estimate the MBDI at fine spatial scales by using PRISM air temperature and precipitation, and portray drought status in map and time series formats. We convened focus group sessions with Arizona stakeholders, in order to introduce them to the MBDI and to garner their qualitative feedback. We found that the MBDI generally accords with their experiences of drought, flood, and ecosystem impacts. Validation with water resources parameters indicates correlation skill on par with the SPI. Given recent trends in temperature in the Southwest, validation of water resources shows some increases in skill in the more recent part of the record, which suggests the index will be an increasingly useful indicator of drought status if air temperatures increase as generally projected. TALK IN PURSUIT OF BETTER MODELS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND FIRE: THE ROLE OF WATER BALANCE IN AREA BURNED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Littell, Jeremy S. (1), Richard Gwozdz (2), Donald McKenzie, (3),(1), (1) JISAO Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, (2) Institute for Natural Resources, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, (3) Pacific Willdland Fire Sciences Lab, United States Forest Service, Seattle, WA The area burned by fire is fundamentally related to climatic conditions, but the nature of that relationship varies substantially with ecosystem vegetation and climatic regime. In this work, we improve the 22 understanding of fire and climate by focusing on the relationship between fuels production, fuels availability, and climate by characterizing climate as water balance at relatively fine scales (ecosections) using a hydrologic model. In the Columbia Basin and its immediate surroundings, water balance variables th often explain over 65% of the variation in area burned in the late 20 century. The statistical models describing these relationships are simpler than previously published models and require only a few climatic variables to achieve a strongly predictive fire – climate model. The nature of these models reinforces and further clarifies previously published ideas on the role of climate in fuels drying and production, and thus substantially improves the potential for projecting future fire activity given climate change. A water balance based approach appears to provide a quantitative underpinning for future climatically driven pyrogeography that improves on efforts to model future fire as a linear function of climate. POSTER A NETWORK OF TREE-RING BASED HYDROCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Littell, Jeremy S. (1), Hamlet, Alan F. (1,2), Lutz, Eric (1) JISAO Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, (2) Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA Hydroclimatic (streamflow, precipitation) proxy reconstructions in the Pacific Northwest have to date yielded relatively poor results when compared with other regions of the western United States. Here we present 15 new streamflow and seasonal precipitation reconstructions for the last few centuries that better quantify the pre-instrumental record over much of the region and also demonstrate the potential for improved and updated proxy records in the PNW. The fidelity of tree-ring records to streamflow is much improved by considering the role of winter precipitation and entrainment of water in snowpacks separately from the role of summer drought and water demand, and the skill of calibrated reconstructions is substantially improved, with some reconstructions explaining as much as 70% of the variability during the instrumental record (average ~ 45-55%). The need for longer paleo-proxy records in the region is underscored by these reconstructions – relatively few records exist prior to 1500, and the ability to appropriately characterize the role of decadal and multidecadal events in the region’s hydroclimate is uncertain due to the sparse record. We also couple these reconstructions with hydrologic modeling to better understand the range of potential future hydroclimatic scenarios under climate change. POSTER THE CLIMATIC DRIVERS OF CONIFER ESTABLISHMENT AND CHANGES IN TREELINE IN THE AMERICAN WEST Littell, Jeremy S. (1), Gregory Pederson (2), Matthew Germino (3), Lisa Graumlich (4), and Erika Rowland (4). (1) JISAO Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, (2) USGS, Northern Rocky Mtn. Sci. Center, Bozeman, MT, (3) Department of Biological Sciences, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID, (4) School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ The role of climate in the establishment of tree seedlings at upper treeline and within the alpine treeline ecotone is complex and interacts with biotic feedbacks such as the presence of other trees and herb cover. We established a network of 9 upper treeline sites from the interior Pacific Northwest to north central Colorado. This transect traverses observed climate conditions from maritime, modified Mediterranean to highly continental an provides a maroecological approach to understanding the drivers of change in treeline systems and how they vary in different climatic settings. We quantified the spatial and temporal structure of seedling establishment at all 9 sites and compared the establishment record to climatic variables (both directly observed and empirically modeled) to better understand the drivers of establishment. Establishment at these treelines is episodic in nature, and years of positive establishment are associated with a multivariate envelope of climatic conditions that likely favor successful germination, growth, and limit mortality. Establishment responses across climatic gradients are modal, however, 23 suggesting interacting limiting and facilitating factors. Specifically, summers with low numbers of frosts, and years of lower snowpack are associated with establishment, but the location of establishment tends to be in areas of the alpine treeline ecotone where seasonal water limitation does not limit seedling function – the bulk of establishment is within meters of previously established trees that shade establishing seedlings during the day. INVITED TALK LIFE ON THE EDGE: MONITORING FOREST COMMUNITY ECOTONES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Lookingbill, Todd R., Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA In many situations, ecological processes occur at multiple spatial resolutions simultaneously, which presents a challenge to projecting species response to climate change in mountain environments. Although species distributions are typically modeled over large extents, any potential range shifts are driven by fine-scale physiological mechanisms. I propose an approach to monitoring that uses coarsescale information on indirect environmental proxy variables to guide field sampling of fine-scale ecological relationships. I review methods for collecting and analyzing data from locations on the landscape of high spatial variability. These spatially rich data sets can be best leveraged by statistical techniques that (1) account for spatial autocorrelation in the data, (2) capture patterns across spatial scales, and (3) explore relationships between variables at each spatial scale. The approach is applied to locate, understand, and monitor potential shifts in old-growth forest community types within the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest. By embracing spatial heterogeneity in both the sample design and analysis phases, the methods offer the opportunity to incorporate novel sources of variability into species distribution models. TALK STREAM TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE MacDonald, R.J.; Boon, S.; Byrne, J.M., University of Lethbridge,Alberta, Canada Stream temperature is a critical environmental variable controlling aquatic ecosystem function, especially for headwater streams as they provide habitat for many endemic species. Unfortunately, stream temperature is highly sensitive to natural and anthropogenic environmental disturbance. With expected climate warming, and increased human use of mountain regions, the thermal regime of headwater streams could be dramatically altered. The primary objective of this study is to develop a spatial stream temperature model that can be applied in mountain environments to assist with management of aquatic habitat. This objective will be addressed by quantifying the important hydrometeorological processes governing stream temperature through a detailed field study and integrating these processes into the GENESYS (Generate Earth Systems Science input) model. This presentation will discuss the methods used in the field study and conceptual design of this physical stream temperature model. POSTER THE CHARACTERIZATION OF SNOW COVERAGE ABLATION PATTERNS IN THE SUBALPINE FOREST OF THE NIWOT RIDGE LONG-TERM ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH SITE McIntyre, Heather M.; Barry, Roger G. University of Colorado, Department of Geography, Boulder, CO Snow covered area (SCA) represents one of the largest single components of the cryosphere that fluctuates seasonally. For the mountain west, the distribution and storage of snow is largely within the alpine and subalpine environments known to be sensitive to climate change. The accurate detection of SCA in these environments is critical to accurate climatological and hydrological forecasts and the detection of change in each. The disparity between the snow observed on the ground and that which is detected via satellite remote sensing has been adequately addressed in the alpine but resolution of this 24 issue still remains for the subalpine forests. Models such as the TMSCAG, and more recently the MODSCAG, based on Landsat Thematic Mapper and MODIS imagery detect snow cover at subpixel resolution but may include incorrect assumptions about the homogeneity of snow cover in the subalpine forests. The MODSCAG model performs well, up to 90% percent accuracy throughout most of the snow season but is greatly reduced during the snow melt season (March-May) (Painter 2009b). For this study, snow depth measurements will be collected at three sites in the Niwot ridge LTER site following the collection methods of recent research including those of the Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX). Hemispheric photography of the canopy and full snow pit analysis will be collected weekly throughout the 2010 snowmelt season. Meteorological parameters will be provided by established instrumentation at the C1 and AMERIFLUX sites. This study will address the following questions: ‘How robust is the assumption that the snow cover is homogenous under the forest canopy? What are the resulting patterns of snow coverage during the snow melt season? How important are these ‘patches’ of snow to the overall energy balance of the forest? POSTER THERMAL REGIMES OF PERIOGLACIAL LANDFORMS; LOCAL MICRO-CLIMATIC PROCESSES IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA Millar, C.I., Westfall, R.D. USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Albany, CA Understanding microclimatic processes in mountainous terrain is important for accurate evaluations of physical and ecological conditions under global warming. This is especially the case for processes that are controlled by local topography (e.g., cold-air-pooling), and for distinct landforms that might become refugia for plants and animals. We report results from studies investigating thermal regimes of two common periglacial landforms in the Sierra Nevada (SN), rock glaciers and boulder streams. Limited research on these features at high latitudes and in the European Alps suggests that internal circulation patterns, decoupled from regional conditions, lead to unique processes such as depression of permafrost elevation by as much as 1000m. Very little is known about these features in North America. We are investigating thermal regimes of these features in the SN for their role in habitat quality and refugial environment for American pika (Ochotona princeps) and implications to hydrology. We deployed 112 thermochrons into four active pika talus fields of the eastern SN: two low- and two high-elevation taluses, on paired granitic and metamorphic substrates. At each location, transects extended from the talus forefield up talus slopes. Thermochrons (iButtons) were installed at surface and matrix (1m below surface) locations along transects. We retrieved data and report thermal trends based on hourly readings for summer 2009. Our primary findings include: 1) matrix mean temperatures were lower than surface by o 1,5°C; 2) surface temperatures had significantly higher daily fluctuations compared to matrix (5.1 vs 3.6 C std dev; 3) maximum surface temperatures at the two low elevation talus fields exceeded 40°C, minimum matrix temperature was 1°C; 4) for both surface and matrix locations, temperatures were cooler at lower elevations in each talus field, creating positive lapse rates to 60°C/100m; 5) conditions for positive lapse rates collapsed during cool, overcast days, during which times lapse rates were near or less than 0°C/100m; 6) talus temperatures on metamorphic substrates were warmer on average by 5°C (low elevation) and 1°C (high elevation) than those on granitic substrates, 7) forefield (vegetation) locations had the coldest mean temperatures and largest daily fluctuations. Previous records from iButtons we deployed in diverse talus locations suggest that winter conditions are warmest (1°C) at talus surfaces when covered by snow. When these locations lose snow cover, they have highest daily temperature fluctuations. By contrast, matrix temperatures are often sub-freezing, with minimum temperatures colder than -12°C in early winter. In late winter, iButton records suggest that a layer of ice forms in the matrix and persists into early spring; this condition has been verified in the field. By the time of MtnClim 2010, we hope to have retrieved the two low elevation sets of intensively deployed iButtons and we will present tentative results for winter processes from these taluses. 25 TALK ENHANCED TEMPERATURE INCREASES IN HIGH ALTITUDE REGIONS Miller, James (1), and Rangwala, Imtiaz (2), (1) Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ, (2) Physical Sciences Division, R/PSD, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO There is significant evidence that future temperature change is likely to be enhanced in high altitude regions, in part, owing to several positive feedbacks on temperature associated with snow cover, glaciers, clouds, and atmospheric water vapor. We combine observations with both global and regional climate model simulations to examine some of the connections and feedbacks among these variables for the present climate and for a future climate in which atmospheric greenhouse gases are increasing. We focus on two regions--the Tibetan Plateau and the San Juan Mountains in southwestern Colorado. Increased water vapor, cloud cover, and cloud optical depth play roles in the enhancement of high altitude temperatures by increasing the downward flux of longwave radiation at the surface. Although our primary focus is on future temperature enhancements owing to increases in atmospheric water vapor, we also discuss feedbacks associated with changes in snow cover, cloud cover, and cloud optical depth. We show that for the future climate, the strength of some of these feedbacks can change with time. We also discuss the impact of aerosols on high altitude temperature changes. Similar mechanisms account for enhanced temperature changes at high northern latitudes, and similarities and differences between feedbacks at high altitudes and high latitudes are discussed. INVITED TALK DEALING WITH RISK: A VIEW FROM THE WORLD OF CATASTROPHE RISK MODELING AND INSURANCE Murnane, Richard J. Risk Prediction Initiative, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, Garrett Park, MD, Baseline Management Company, Inc., Garrett Park, MD The intensity of a property insurer's, or a property catastrophe reinsurer's, interest in climate varies by company, by the time since the last disaster, and by economic conditions. But, regardless of a company's interest in climate, estimates of risk and magnitude of loss from natural and man-made disasters produced by catastrophe risk models (cat models) increasingly drive business decisions. There are a variety of reasons for this, including: 1) cat model results are used in insurance rate filings to state insurance departments, 2) ratings agencies use cat models to set reserve estimates for companies, and 3) reinsurers use cat models to price reinsurance. (Re)insurance has traditionally been priced using an actuarial approach that basically assumes the historical record can be used to determine the future rate of occurrence of an event. Until a few years ago cat models also followed such an actuarial approach. However, recent versions of cat models for US hurricane risk depart from this approach and attempt to account for multi-decadal variability in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. This change is very controversial, in part because we are in an active, higher risk era that suggests that (re)insurance should be more expensive than that indicated by climatology. Reinsurance prices for US hurricane loss reflect the higher risk estimates, but the new cat models have yet to be approved by states for rate filing purposes. This experience suggests that extending cat models to account for climate variability and/or change will be a long controversial process. In this presentation I will provide an overview of property catastrophe (re)insurance, summarize the justifications and mechanisms for accounting for climate variability in hurricane cat models, and offer some speculation on how cat models might be altered and used to assess how the risk of loss from other hazards (for example, wildfires) might respond to climate variability. 26 INVITED TALK WHO’S WHO & WHAT’S WHAT; A JOURNALIST’S PERSPECTIVE ON NAVIGATING THRU THE MAZE OF NEW MEDIA Nash, J. Madeleine Freelance Journalist, San Francisco, California I plan to review the revolutionary changes that have recently redefined my world--the world of mass media-- then segue to a discussion of “Climategate,” a story that, due to the Blogsphere, very quickly went viral. Was it a tempest in a teapot or a full-blown public relations disaster? And what, if any, are the lessons to be learned? POSTER SIMULATION OF TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS, PAST AND FUTURE: THE NESTED SCALE EXPERIMENT (NESCE), A MYTHICAL BEAST Neilson, R.P. (1), Lenihan, J. (1), Bachelet, D. (2), Drapek, R. (1), Daly, C. (3) , Wells, J. (3), McGlinchy, M. (3), Rogers, B. (3), Pinjuv, G (3), Gonzalez, P (4), (1) USDA Forest Service, (2) Conservation Biology Institute, (3) Oregon State University, (4) University of California Berkeley Accurate forecasting of the potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems using Dynamic General Vegetation Models (DGVMs) is of critical importance for numerous reasons, depending in part, on the scale of interest. Global to continental-scale carbon balance and vegetation change could enhance or diminish climate change over the next century via trace gas and other biophysical feedbacks. These feedbacks are of critical concern for international negotiations on the controls of greenhouse gas emissions. However, at landscape to regional scales land managers are deeply concerned about potential forest dieback, changes in species composition, possible catastrophic disturbances and decline or changes in ecosystem services. Data to validate DGVMs are taken at various scales from site measurements to global (trace gases, remote sensing). As with climate models, DGVMs are based on fundamental concepts and, in theory, should operate at all spatial and temporal scales. However, limitations in basic knowledge and computational resources force the use of ever more coarse grid resolutions at larger spatial scales, forcing some processes to be ‘parameterized’, rather than explicitly simulated. Yet, smaller domains with higher resolution may require explicit simulation of processes, such as dispersal, fire spread and hydrologic routing. We present a Nested Scale Experiment (NeScE) from global to landscape and from 1900 to the present of observed monthly climate data and on to 2100 under 9 future climate scenarios (3 GCMs X 3 SRES Emissions Scenarios). Using the MC1 DGVM, we explore potential feedbacks, impacts and uncertainties associated with these multi-scale simulations. Consistency of impacts and feedbacks (both past and future), as well as sources of uncertainty, will be explored across four spatial resolutions in this preliminary investigation and presented for use by both scientists and natural resource managers. We present NeScE as an open-investigator framework for model testing, validation and impacts and feedback assessments. INVITED TALK LANDFALLING IMPACTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS: FROM EXTREME EVENTS TO LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCE Neiman, Paul J. (1); Ralph, F.M (1); Wick, G.A. (1); Hughes, M.(1); Lundquist, J.D. (2); Dettinger, M.D. (3); Cayan, D.R. (3); Schick, L.W. (4); Kuo, Y.-H. (5); Rotunno, R (5); Taylor, G.H. (6) (1) NOAA/Earth System Research Lab./Physical Sciences Div., Boulder, CO; (2)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, (3) U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, (4) U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, Seattle, WA, (5) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, (6) Oregon Climate Service, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR The pre-cold-frontal low-level jet within oceanic extratropical cyclones represents the lower-tropospheric component of a deeper corridor of concentrated water vapor transport in the cyclone warm sector. These 27 corridors are referred to as atmospheric rivers (ARs) because they are narrow relative to their length scale and are responsible for most of the poleward water vapor transport at midlatitudes, especially during the cool season. Using illustrative case-study examples and longer-term compositing strategies, this presentation will first briefly review the key structural and dynamical characteristics of ARs over the eastern Pacific Ocean and then comprehensively describe their hydrometeorological impacts upon landfall across westernmost North America. Lower-tropospheric conditions during the landfall of ARs are anomalously warm and moist with weak static stability and strong onshore flow, resulting in orographically enhanced precipitation and unusually high melting levels. Hence, ARs are critical contributors to extreme precipitation and flooding events. Despite these deleterious impacts, ARs also replenish snowpacks and reservoirs across parts of the semi-arid West, so they represent a key to understanding regional impacts of climate change on water resources. TALK INTERACTIVE IMPACTS OF A FUNGAL PATHOGEN AND TEMPERATURE ON AMPHIBIANS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 1 2 2 2 1 Pope, K.L. , Scott, J.P. , Foley, J.E. , and Lawler, S.P. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest 2 Research Station, Redwood Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Davis. In the western USA, montane amphibians are expected to be adversely affected by climate change, both directly and indirectly through interactions with agents such as diseases. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a fungal pathogen of amphibians that is causing a significant loss of vertebrate biodiversity worldwide. Variation due to climate change is considered a driver of the virulence of this epidemic since the pathogen has a narrow thermal optimum. In 2006, we discovered Bd in northern CA montane amphibian populations. The Klamath-Siskiyou Mountains and southern Cascades support a high diversity of native lentic-breeding amphibians. In the summers of 2008 and 2009, we performed a 150-lake survey of amphibians at sites that were inhabited by amphibians 6 – 9 years ago. We collected over 2000 skin swabs from seven species of amphibians and tested them for Bd using qPCR. We found disease occurrence to be widespread and uncorrelated with spatial variables suggesting that it has been present in the system for some time. Some infected populations of Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) appear to be in decline while others seem unaffected by the disease. Climatic variables seems to have an influence on the prevalence of the disease in these populations. We will discuss hypotheses we are currently testing regarding the relationships of climatic factors with disease prevalence and virulence. As our climate changes, understanding the interactive effects of Bd and temperature will not only allow for more effective management of the specific species tested, but may also provide important insights for the management of other montane species that have been heavily impacted by the disease such as the mountain yellowlegged frog. POSTER POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF ADAPTING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN MONTANA’S FLATHEAD VALLEY Prato, Tony (1), Qiu, Zeyuan (2), Pederson, Gregory T. (3), Fagre, Daniel B. (4), Bengston, Lindsey (5), Williams, Jimmy R. (6) (1) University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, (2) New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, (3) University of Arizona, Tucson AZ, (4) and (5) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, MT, (6) Blackland Research and Extension Center, Temple, TX Crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) for agricultural production systems (APSs) consisting of combinations of crop enterprises are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Montana’s Flathead Valley under historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2050) climate conditions. The latter are based on the IPCC A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios. Future APSs were adapted to future climate conditions by altering the mix of crop enterprises. The evaluation entailed: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs in consultation with local agricultural producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soil types; (3) determining the dominant (in terms of NFI) APS under historical and future climate 28 conditions; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS under historical climate conditions is superior to NFI for the dominant APS under each of the three future climate conditions. Simulated net return per ha averaged over crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types was 24% lower and simulated mean NFI for APSs was 57% lower under future climate conditions than under historical climate conditions. Although adapting APSs to future climate change reduced the reduction in NFI relative to what it would have been without adaptation, in six of the nine cases in which adaptation was advantageous, NFI with adaptation to the three future climate conditions was inferior to NFI under historical climate conditions. Therefore, in the Flathead Valley, adapting APSs to the three future climate conditions alleviates but does not offset potential adverse impacts on NFI of the three future climate conditions. TALK EXAMINING CLIMATE CHANGE BETWEEN THE LATE 20TH AND MID 21ST CENTURY IN COLORADO’S SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM HIGH RESOLUTION CLIMATE MODELS Rangwala, Imtiaz and Barsugli, Joe, NOAA ESRL, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO th st The study examines, on seasonal and elevation bases, the late 20 and the mid 21 century climate change in Colorado’s San Juan Mountains from, dynamically downscaled, high resolution (0.5 degree) climate model products from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). These products particularly provide a much better topographical representation of the mountainous regions relative to the coarse resolution (>2 degree) global climate models. Therefore, they allow us to do a greater elevation sensitive understanding of climate change for mountainous regions. We will present the results for seasonal changes in the maximum and minimum temperatures between the th st late 20 (1971-2000) and the mid 21 (2041-2070) century for different surface elevation zones. These changes in temperatures will be explained by corresponding changes in the surface energy fluxes. We will also present a comparison of observed and reanalysis (NCEP) forced NARCCAP model trends in temperature between 1981-2005 and elucidate possible mechanisms for the observed trends by examining other climate variables in the models. INVITED TALK WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF MTNCLIM YEAR 2009-2010 Redmond, Kelly, Western Regional Climate Center,Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV The MTNCLIM year commenced with PACLIM 2009 in April. Spring in the western states finished with no major precipitation or temperature anomalies. The summer monsoon was generally below normal in precipitation, but the Great Basin to the north was quite wet. Autumn was generally dry and helped set up winter conditions with reduced soil moisture in many mountain areas. Summer was again warmer than average along the Mexico-US border, but autumn brought some very cold conditions, not experienced in some time. A moderate El Niño developed rapidly and very early in the summer, but its effects did not seem to occur in the western states until winter 2009-10, when a pronounced north-south precipitation dipole set up. After an extremely dry calendar year, the Southwest suddenly found copious rain and very heavy snow as winter began in earnest. Winter 2009-10 continued to bring very cold weather, and the calendar year 2009 ended nearly as cold as 2008. The new year brought high temperatures to the Winter Olympics in Vancouver just when they were not very welcome. Snowpack by the end of March was low in both the Colorado and Columbia Basins, an unusual occurrence, with streamflow projected near 2/3 of average in both areas. The winter was quite unusual hemispherically, with a ring of cool conditions at mid-latitudes encompassing very warm conditions over the Arctic, Greenland, and much of eastern Canada. Siberia reported one of its coldest winters in history. Globally, the first four months of 2010 started close to the warmest on record. However, spring 2010 commenced on the cool side. El Niño finally began to slowly diminish after a long stay. Other interesting events of the past year pertinent to the West will be discussed. 29 POSTER THE CLIMATE OF THE SHOSHONE NATIONAL FOREST: PAST CHANGES, FUTURE PROJECTIONS, AND ECOSYSTEM IMPLICATIONS Rice, Janine(1), Tredennick, Andrew(2), Joyce, Linda(3). (1)Western Water Assessment/USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO (2) Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO (3) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO The Shoshone National Forest (SNF) of northwest Wyoming is part of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), and lies to the east of Yellowstone National Park and Bridger-Teton Nation Forest. As preparation for exploring the adaptation options tor resource management within the SNF, we reviewed the available literature on paleo/historic and future climate, and the potential impacts of future climate changes. The 2.5 million acres of the SNF is situated near a transition zone between monsoonal air flows from the south, and the Pacific air mass from the west. The complex mountainous topography defines two distinct climates, summer wet and winter dry in the lower elevations to the east, and summer dry and winter wet in higher elevations to the west. Temperatures of the GYE have varied considerably over the th last 20,000 years, and the last half of the 20 century has been marked by a warming and drying trend. Future projections of temperature for the region suggest a continued warming trend with the greatest warming occurring in mountainous regions. Future projections for precipitation are more uncertain, but may get wetter during winter. The impacts from expected future climate changes may: 1) Decrease snow packs in the long term as temperatures rise and cause earlier run-off, 2) Fragment and shrink alpine areas as forests expand up slope, 3) Increase naturally occurring fire intensity, frequency, and magnitude with higher temperatures, 4) Increase the frequency, severity, and magnitude of insect outbreaks, 5) Decrease or eliminate glaciers, 6) Increase stream temperatures, shifting aquatic species ranges, 7) Potentially benefit recreation-based economies from warmer temperatures, and hinder agricultural industries with less reliable and increasingly scarce water resources. Adaptation and mitigation strategies may help reduce the negative impacts from the expected changes in future climate. TALK CHARACTERIZING 2,000 YEARS OF HIGH ELEVATION CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTH SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, CO. Routson, Cody C. (1), Woodhouse, Connie A. (2,4), Overpeck, Jonathan T. (1,3), Meko, David M. (4), Betancourt, Julio (5). (1) University of Arizona, Department of Geoscience, Tucson, AZ, (2) University of Arizona, School of Geography and Development, Tucson, AZ, (3) Institute of the Environment, Tucson, AZ, (4) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ, (5) U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ Bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata) is used to characterize 2,000 years of moisture variability at 3400 m elevation in the south San Juan Mountains, CO. Although this bristlecone site is located near upper treeline, growth is more strongly limited by moisture than temperature. Using careful site and sample selection, we have developed a preliminary record of tree-growth reflecting early summer moisture variability spanning the last two millennium. The medieval interval ~900-1300 A.D. is characterized in the Southwest by a series of severe drought events. The signature of medieval period drought in this preliminary record has both similarities and differences to those recorded in the Colorado River reconstruction or the annual precipitation reconstruction for north-central New Mexico, suggesting potential differences in seasonal response and or regional climate between these records. The length of this record provides a glimpse into climate during the medieval interval in a region strongly influenced by both local and global climate processes including the position of the storm-track and the state of El Niño Southern Oscillation. The south San Juan Mountains located within the broader Southwest are an important source of natural resources including water and biodiversity. Characterizing past drought and moisture variability in this region is an important contribution to understanding San Juan Mountain climate variability over a period critical for assessing current and future climate conditions. 30 TALK RECENT ENHANCED TREE GROWTH AT UPPER ALTITUDE SITES IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES: LINKS TO WATER USE EFFICIENCY Scuderi, Louis A., and Lohmann, Maria, Center for Rapid Environmental Assessment and Terrain Evaluation (CREATE), and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque New Mexico Knowledge of how high altitude vegetation may be responding to recent global change is essential for predicting future plant distributions and current and future hydrologic response. While climatic variability at the Pleistocene to Holocene transition generated considerable change in vegetation distributions in the arid western United States, we have significantly less knowledge of the impacts of current rapid warming. Alpine tree lines, because of their temperature sensitivity, may potentially have the greatest growth response to this climate variability. Recent dendroclimatic studies have suggested that plant growth is increasing at selected high altitude sites in the western United States. However, since only a small number of sites can be monitored in situ, it is difficult to draw consistent and verifiable conclusions about the overall response at both alpine and sub-alpine tree line and mid-elevation sites. We have found that it is possible to accurately reconstruct temperatures and evaluate changes in Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) over a large range of mid and high-altitude sites utilizing AVHRR and MODIS satellite data. Results suggest that many sites over a significant portion of western North America are currently experiencing rapid growth increases. While this change is manifested in enhanced carbon sequestration in stems, branches and leaves the overall increase is mitigated by the ability of individual species to utilize water, with drought tolerant and low water use species able to take advantage of warmer temperatures. This has profound implications for future plant distributions. POSTER DEVELOPING A MECHANISTIC APPROACH TO MODEL THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST DYNAMICS IN COMPLEX MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES Seidl, R. (1,2), Rammer, W. (2), Scheller, R.M. (3), Spies, T.A. (4), and Lexer, M.J. (2), (1) Oregon State University, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Corvallis, OR 97331, (2) University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Institute of Silviculture, 1190 Vienna, Austria, (3) Portland State University, Environmental Science and Management, Portland, OR, (4) USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to impact a variety of natural processes across scales in forest ecosystems, affecting their structure, composition and functioning. The mechanisms governing these processes are frequently characterized by nonlinearities and threshold behavior, which underscores the importance of considering climate change exposure levels at high spatial resolution. Particularly complex mountain landscapes, characterized by high spatial heterogeneity, require a fine grained multi-scale approach to assess forest ecosystem impacts and resilience under a changing climate. With the aim of modeling these aspects mechanistically as emerging system properties we developed a simulation approach balancing functional and structural process representation while granting scalability from individual trees to forest landscapes. As the core processes of forest dynamics we explicitly modeled individual tree competition for resources and their utilization following generalized physiological principles, applying a hierarchical multi-scale framework. Here we present the general modeling approach as well as a multi-attribute evaluation. Functional aspects (e.g., productivity) were evaluated against FIA plot data over an ecological transect ranging from coastal forest types to mountain forest ecosystems both windward and in the rain shadow of the Cascade mountains in Oregon. To evaluate aspects of forest structure and composition independent long-term vegetation study data of the HJ Andrews experimental forest were used. Our results showed generally good agreement between modeled and empirical data for the initial suite of indicators examined. In addition, the ability to encompass spatial complexity was evaluated by analyzing scalability of the approach. In an optimized implementation of the pattern-based individual tree model computation was found to scale linearly with the number of individuals, making it suitable for landscape-scale simulations of forest dynamics. In 31 conclusion, the current study presents a step towards an improved consideration of ecological heterogeneity in process-based modeling, strengthening the predictive capacities for complex mountain forest landscapes under climate change. POSTER SNOW COVER IN THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA – YEAR TO VARIATION AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON INSECT POPULATIONS Smiley, John T. University of California White Mountain Research Station, Bishop, CA Using an 11-year temperature record from underneath the canopy of Sierra Willow bushes (Salix orestera) at multiple sites in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, ranging from 2689-3544 meters above sea level in 8 different drainages, I determined the seasonal timing of snow cover and snowmelt for each site. After fitting a linear regression model which factors out year to year variation in overall snow cover, the relationship to altitude became highly significant, with snow cover lasting approximately 13 days longer for each 100m elevation. I then used the year-to-year variation factor as an “relative snow cover index”. Plotting this index alongside the altitudinal range of the Willow Leaf Beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis revealed that years with reduced snow cover were often followed by extinction of low-altitude beetle populations. The most likely explanation for this is that reduced snow cover exposes the insects to more severe winter cold and/or desiccation. This suggests one mechanism by which these insect populations have been forced to move upward to higher elevations in the past decade. INVITED TALK FOREST ECOLOGY OF THE WESTERN CASCADE RANGE WITH EMPHASIS ON RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE ANDREWS EXPERIMENTAL FOREST Spies, Thomas A., USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR The western Cascade Range consists of a diversity of forest and non-forest ecosystems arrayed along strong topographic and environmental gradients. The core of the region is dominated by Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and silver fir forests with oak woodlands and montane meadows occurring at the elevational extremes. Aspect and topography influence forest productivity and species composition. Species from northern floras occur at high elevations and species from southern floras can be found on hot dry sites that occur on south facing slopes. Fire regimes are mixed to high severity and also influenced by topography. Much of what we know about old- growth forests and forest succession following wildfire and logging in the Pacific Northwest has come from research in and around the Andrews Experimental Forest. Major findings include the “discovery” of the importance of dead wood in forest ecosystems and the nature of forest-stream interactions. Research on disturbance ecology has provided a basis for new ecosystem based approaches to forest management on public lands. While we have learned much about the current and historical patterns and dynamics of these forest ecosystems, it is clear that we face a number of hurdles in estimating the effects of climate change on these forests. The most significant challenge may be to better understand how topography affects ecosystem processes across mountainous landscapes. 32 POSTER A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL TO PREDICT FUTURE AIR QUALITY IN PROTECTED AREAS. Stavros, E. Natasha (1) and McKenzie, Donald (2) (1) Fire and Mountain Ecology Lab, University of Washington, School of Forest Resources, Seattle, WA, (2) Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, US Forest Service, Seattle, WA A major source of visibility impairment in mountain protected areas is regional haze from wildland fires. We are developing a software tool to project the effects of wildfires on regional-scale air quality. This model, Fire Area and Frequency Simulator (FAFS), operates at the coarse spatial scales (12-36 km) necessary for regional coverage but the fine temporal scales (daily) necessary for capturing variations in air quality. Existing models at these scales predict wildfires by simple extrapolation from current fire observations, hence neglecting changes in environmental conditions, particularly climate. Climate influences not only vegetation cover and therefore the type and quantity of fuel loadings, but also the moisture condition of the fuel. We therefore focus on projecting weather parameters, fuel moisture and fuel loadings to estimate future fire starts and fire sizes, such that simulations will produce broad spatial patterns of wildfire rather than trying to replicate individual fire events. This new software will be integrated into the BlueSky modeling framework (created by the Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, US Forest Service) in order to predict future wildfire impacts on air quality and regional haze under a variety of climate change and vegetation cover scenarios. POSTER QUANTIFYING SOIL CARBON FLUXES ACROSS A RANGE OF CLIMATE, VEGETATION AND LITHOLOGY Stielstra, Clare M. (1), Brooks, Paul D. (1), Chorover, Jon (2), (1) Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (2) Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ The critical zone (CZ) is defined as that portion of the earth’s terrestrial near-surface where integrated processes occur among components from bedrock to the atmospheric boundary layer and where water, atmosphere, ecosystems, and soils interact on a geomorphic and geologic template. Researchers from the University of Arizona have initiated an interdisciplinary, in-depth study of the CZ at two sites that vary in climate, elevation, lithology, and vegetation: the Jemez River Basin in Northern New Mexico and the Santa Catalina Mountains in Southern Arizona. We hypothesize that CZ systems organize and evolve in response to open system fluxes of energy and mass, including meteoric inputs of radiation, water, and carbon, which can be quantified at point to watershed scales. These CZ observatories are designed to examine the impacts of space-time variability in energy, carbon and water flux on coupled CZ processes along two well-constrained climate gradients. Organic carbon is the primary input of chemical energy to the CZ, and ongoing changes in climate and regional vegetation may change the rate at which this carbon is cycled through and exported from CZ soils. Therefore, a goal of our study is to quantify how surficial soil carbon fluxes, both CO2 and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), vary in response to seasonal precipitation. This research was initiated in winter 2010 and focuses on high-elevation forests that vary based on climate, parent materials (granite vs. schist) and degrees of spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidental) infestation. We are quantifying soil DOC pools and fluxes before, during, and following spring snowmelt and before, during, and after summer rainstorms. Throughout both the snow-covered and summer seasons we monitor the flux of CO2 from the soil. The results of this study will allow us to compare how parent material and insect infestation independently impact fluxes in and out of the carbon pool within subalpine catchments with distinct seasonal precipitation regimes. 33 INVITED TALK IMPLICATIONS OF HILLSLOPE-SCALE CLIMATE VARIATION FOR ESTIMATING ECOHYDROLOGIC RESPONSES TO WARMING Tague, Christina, Bren School of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA In the mountainous Western US, spatial variation in eco-hydrologic processes is a complex function of geology, soil, topography, climate and vegetation patterns. Understanding how these different controls vary and interact within a regional landscape across a range of scales is a key challenge in understanding impacts of climate change. Much of the current research focuses on spatial-temporal patterns of snow accumulation and melt as important drivers of summer streamflow, and points to dramatic changes in water resources with reduced snowpacks. Recent work has also shown evidence of increases in vegetation mortality associated with summer drought. We show that modelling these responses requires convolving relatively fine scale information about precipitation and snowmelt response to warming with estimates of subsurface geologic controls on drainage and vegetation water use. Using a coupled process-based model of ecosystem hydrologic and carbon cycling processes, we demonstrate that soil moisture drainage characteristics exert a significant control on how coupled ecologic and hydrologic systems response to spatial and temporal variation in precipitation and temperature. These modeling studies provide an expanded perspective on landscape-level sensitivities to climate warming, and can provide guidance in strategic design of data assimilation and monitoring strategies. TALK THE USA-NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK: TRACKING THE PHENOLOGICAL RESPONSE OF PLANTS, ANIMALS, AND LANDSCAPES ACROSS THE NATION Thomas, Kathryn (1,2) and Jake Weltzin (2, 3), (1) U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Tucson, Arizona 85721, (2) USA-National Phenology Network, Tucson, Arizona, (3) U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, Arizona Phenology describes recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, or phenophases, especially in relation to climate. The 2007 IPCC report noted that ‘phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change’. The USA-National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) provides a mechanism for agencies, tribes, organizations, institutions, scientists, and the public to contribute to national awareness and information on the phenological response of biota and landscapes to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN is coordinated by the National Coordinating Office (NCO) which gained its first Executive Director in 2007. NCO staff and consulting scientists have developed and tested a new, more data rich standard for phenological monitoring phenophase status monitoring. The beta version of phenophase status monitoring is implemented online (http://www.usanpn.org), currently with over 220 recommended plant species and 58 animal species and with more species being added throughout 2010. Data collected using the phenophase status approach can be entered through Nature’s Notebook, the online data entry interface transfers phenological observations into the National Phenology Database. Phenological observations, either contemporary or historical and acquired with other monitoring approaches, can also be integrated into the National Phenology Database. In 2010, the NCO will be adding a variety of data query and visualization tools that can be used online. In addition a number of pilot projects are examining the integration of biophysical and remote sensors with ground level measures to measure biotic and landscape phenology. The USA-NPN is a rapidly growing network that now includes participants from all sectors. It serves to provide phenological data for basic and applied research and to inform decision making in this era of rapidly changing climate. We invite you to participate. 34 INVITED TALK TREE MORTALITY, CLIMATIC CHANGE AND THE FUTURE OF FORESTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES Van Mantgem, Phillip J. (1); Stephenson, Nathan L. (2); Das, Adrian J. (2); Byrne, John C. (3);. Daniels, Lori D (4); Franklin, Jerry F. (5); Fulé, Peter Z. (6); Harmon, Mark E. (7); Larson, Andrew J. (5); Smith, Jeremy M. (8); Taylor, Alan H. (9); Veblen, Thomas T. (8) (1) U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Arcata CA (2), U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA (3), USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, (4) Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada, (5) College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, (6) School of Forestry and Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, (7) Department of Forest Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, (8) Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (9) Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA Tree mortality is a poorly understood process in terms of its physiology and ecological consequences. Warmer temperatures have the potential to directly and indirectly influence the rates and patterns of tree mortality, thereby changing forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. Recent evidence suggests that such changes may already be occurring. Analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States shows that background (noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, and were coincident with regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits. Reports of large-scale (catastrophic) forest die-offs associated with warming also appear to be increasing in frequency. In spite of these observations we are unable to predict future forest conditions because we lack a basic understanding of the mechanisms of tree mortality. For example, vegetation response to future droughts is expected to be very different if the dominant physiological mode of drought–induced tree mortality is cavitation or (temperature-sensitive) carbon starvation. Current data at the stand scale is ambiguous whether forests will be more sensitive to absolute or relative differences to current climatic conditions. The role of forest pathogens and other disturbance agents as amplifiers mortality patterns is an additional source of uncertainty. It is only with a committed effort to identify and describe the mechanisms of tree mortality will we be able to produce credible predictions of vegetation change and atmospheric feedbacks. TALK FROM BUTTERFLIES TO BRISTLECONES: MICROCLIMATIC AND TOPOCLIMATIC RANGE ADJUSTMENTS AS A FOUNDATION FOR CONSERVATION IN A CHANGING MACROCLIMATE Weiss, Stuart B (1), (1) Creekside Center for Earth Observation, Menlo Park CA The spatial variability in climate extends across multiple scales, from macroclimate through-, meso, topo, and microclimates. This presentation explores the roles that microclimate and topoclimate play in buffering the response of organisms to variable weather and directional macroclimatic change. Populations of organisms operate at the topoclimatic and microclimatic scales, where survival, recruitment and death can be very site-specific. At the finest scale, overwintering monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) adjust their distribution on branches according to wind and solar exposure, which can be quantified using hemispherical photography of forest canopies. The Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis) exhibits an annual range adjustment across insolation-driven topoclimatic gradients, and the phenological mechanisms behind the shifts are well understood. On the longest time scale, bristlecone pines (Pinus longeava) exhibit decadal to millennial range shifts across elevation and aspect, including downslope shifts into cold air pools in recent decades as minimum temperatures have increased. These examples provide a robust framework for conservation strategies in changing macroclimates, provide guidance for where to monitor populations for evidence of climate change-driven range shifts, and highlight existing modeling and measurement tools for quantifying the climate near the ground. 35 INVITED TALK MOTIVATING PUBLIC READINESS FOR DISASTERS Wood, Michele M., Health Science Department, California State University, Fullerton, 800 N. State College Boulevard, Fullerton, CA 92831 This presentation provides a user-oriented description of the best way we know how to educate the public to upgrade their knowledge, perceptions, and preparedness actions for future hazardous events. The conclusions and recommendations provided rest on empirical research findings from more than 50 years of social science research of how public education and information impact knowledge, perceptions, and personal preparedness action-taking on a range of hazard types including natural hazards, terrorism, and more. Issues and challenges in public education for disaster preparedness will be discussed. A 10-step tool kit for growing public readiness will be presented, along with a cost-based typology for conceptualizing household readiness. TALK MULTISCALE CLIMATIC, TOPOGRAPHIC, AND BIOTIC CONTROLS OF TREE INVASION IN A SUBALPINE PARKLAND LANDSCAPE, JEFFERSON PARK, OREGON CASCADES, USA. Zald, Harold S.J. (1), Spies, Thomas A. (2) (1) Oregon State University, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Corvallis, OR, (2) USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR Treeline movement and tree invasion of subalpine meadows have been documented throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Relationships between temperature and treeline position suggest treeline shifts and invasion of subalpine meadows are large-scale responses to climate change. However, tree invasion is fundamentally driven by tree regeneration processes influenced by climatic, physical, and biological factors at multiple spatial scales. This study utilized airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), snow depth measurements, and tree invasion reconstructions to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of tree invasion in 130 ha of subalpine parkland in Jefferson Park, Oregon. Meadow area occupied by trees increased from 7.75% in 1950 to 34.7% in 2007. Landform types, microtopography, and mature tree canopies influenced summer snow depth, which influenced temporal and spatial patterns of tree invasion. Tree invasion occurred at a higher rate on debris flow landforms, which had lower summer snow depth, suggesting potentially rapid treeline and meadow invasion responses to disturbance events. Tree invasion was associated with reduced annual snowfall on glacial landforms, but decoupled from snowfall on debris flows. Tree invasion was spatially constrained to micro sites with high topographic positions and close proximity to overstory canopy associated with low summer snow depth. Seed source limitations placed an additional species-specific spatial constraints on where trees invaded meadows. Climate and topography had an interactive effect, trees invaded at higher topographic positions during both high snow/low temperature and low snow/high temperature periods, but had greater than expected invasion at lower topographic positions during low snow/high temperature periods. Within the context of larger landform types, microtopography and proximity to overstory trees constrained where trees invaded meadows, even during favorable climate periods. This study suggests large scale climate-driven models of vegetation change may overestimate treeline movement and meadow invasion, because they do not account for biophysical controls limiting tree invasion at multiple spatial scales. 36 MtnClim 2010 Participants Albright, Whitney Bachelet, Dominique Baguskas, Sara Berger, Wolfgang Berger, Karen Bond, Barbara Bookhagen, Bodo Boon, Sarah Brekke, Levi Brown, Timothy Bunn, Andy Burles, Katherine Creeden, Eric Daly, Chris Das, Adrian Davison, Jennifer Delany, Diane Dettinger, Michael Diaz, Henry Doherty, Eoin Dolanc, Christopher Drapek, Raymond Duffy, Philip Dugger, Aubrey Ellinger, Jonathan Flower, Aquila Ford, Kevin Fountain, Andrew Frey, Sarah Friesen, Cheryl Garcia, Elizabeth Garfin, Gregg Giesen, Tom Goines, Bruce Grant, Gordon Graumlich, Lisa Greenwood, Gregory Halofsky, Jessica Hamlet, Alan Hatcher, Kendra Herring, Erin Hicke, Jeff HilleRisLambers, Janneke University of Washington Conservation Biology Institute University of California, Santa Barbara SIO / UCSD SIO / UCSD Oregon State University University of California, Santa Barbara University of Lethbridge U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Desert Research Institute Western Washington University University of Lethbridge University of Idaho, Masters Student PRISM Climate Group, OSU USGS, BRD, SEKI Field Station University of Arizona US Forest Service, PSW Research Station USGS / SIO NOAA / CIRES Environmental Incentives, LLC University of California, Davis US Forest Service, PNW Research Station Climate Central University of California, Santa Barbara Oregon State University University of Oregon University of Washington Portland State University, Dept. of Geology Oregon State University Willamette National Forest University of California, Santa Barbara University of Arizona, Inst. of the Environment Oregon State University USFS Pacific Southwest Region US Forest Service, PNW Research Station University of Arizona Mountain Research Initiative University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Oregon State University University of Oregon University of Idaho University of Washington 37 albriw@u.washington.edu dominique@consbio.org baguskas@geog.ucsb.edu wberger@ucsd.edu opabooks@aol.com barbara.bond@oregonstate.edu bodo@icess.ucsb.edu sarah.boon@uleth.ca lbrekke@usbr.gov tim.brown@dri.edu andy.bunn@wwu.edu katie.burles@uleth.ca eric.creeden@gmail.com chris.daly@oregonstate.edu adas@usgs.gov jen.e.davison@gmail.com ddelany@fs.fed.us mdettinger@ucsd.edu henry.f.diaz@noaa.gov edoherty@enviroincentives.com crdolanc@ucdavis.edu rdrapek@fs.fed.us pdufy@climatecentral.org adugger@bren.ucsb.edu jellinger@gmail.com aquila@uoregon.edu krford@u.washington.edu andrew@pdx.edu sjkfrey@gmail.com cfriesen@fs.fed.us garcia@geog.ucsb.edu gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu giesentom@gmail.com bgoines@fs.fed.us gordon.grant@oregonstate.edu lgraumlich@gmail.com green@giub.unibe.ch jhalo@uw.edu hamleaf@uw.edu hatcheke@science.oregonstate.edu eherring@uoregon.edu jhicke@uidaho.edu jhrl@u.washington.edu Jones, Julia Kennedy, Rebecca Klinger, Robert Kretzing, David Lenart, Melanie Littell, Jeremy Lookingbill, Todd Lyons-Tinsley, Christina MacDonald, Ryan Maruoka, Kathleen McIntyre, Heather Michaels, Norm Millar, Constance Miller, James Munger, Sherilyn Murnane, Rick Nash, J Madeleine Nash, Thomas Neiman, Paul Oertel, Rebecca Peterson, David Pope, Karen Prato, Tony Rangwala, Imtiaz Redmond, Kelly Restaino, Joseph Rice, Janine Roos, Maurice Roth, Travis Routson, Cody Rowland, Mary Scheller, Robert Scuderi, Louis Seidl, Rupert Smiley, John Sobrio, Tara Spies, Thomas Stavros, Erica Stephenson, Nathan Stielstra, Clare Swanson, Fred Tague, Christina Thomas, Kathryn Thorne, James Van Mantgem, Phillip Van Til, Ross Visty, Judith Oregon State University US Forest Service, PNW Research Station USGS - BRD Willamette National Forest University of Arizona University of Washington, Climate Impacts University of Richmond University of Washington University of Lethbridge University of Colorado Dept of Geography Willamette National Forest US Forest Service, PSW Research Station Rutgers University RPI / BIOS and Baseline Management Co. Freelance Freelance NOAA/Earth System Research Lab U.S. Geological Survey US Forest Service, PNW Research Station US Forest Service, PSW Research Station University of Missouri, CARES NOAA ESRL WRCC / DRI University of Washington Western Water Assessment/USFS California State Dept of Water Resources Oregon State University University of Arizona US Forest Service, PNW Research Station Portland State University University of New Mexico Oregon State University White Mountain Research Station OSU MPP grad student US Forest Service, PNW Research Station University of Washington U.S. Geological Survey University of Arizona US Forest Service, PNW Research Station University of California, Santa Barbara USGS / USA-NPN University of California, Davis U.S. Geological Survey NOAA / National Weather Service Rocky Mountain National Park 38 geojulia@comcast.net rebeccakennedy@fs.fed.us rcklinger@usgs.gov dkretzing@fs.fed.us mlenart@email.arizona.edu jlittell@u.washington.edu tlooking@richmond.edu lyonstinsley@gmail.com ryan.macdonald@uleth.ca kmaruoka@yahoo.com heathermmac@gmail.com nmichaels@fs.fed.us cmillar@fs.fed.us miller@marine.rutgers.edu samtigger@gmail.com rick.murnane@bios.edu madnash@sbcglobal.net madnash@sbcglobal.net paul.j.neiman@noaa.gov rebecca_oertel@usgs.gov peterson@fs.fed.us kpope@fs.fed.us pratoa@missouri.edu imtiaz.rangwala@noaa.gov kelly.redmond@dri.edu restaino@u.washington.edu jrice02@fs.fed.us mroos@water.ca.gov rothtra@engr.orst.edu routson@email.arizona.edu mrowland@fs.fed.us rmscheller@gmail.com tree@unm.edu rupert.seidl@oregonstate.edu jsmiley@ucsd.edu tsobrio@gmail.com tspies@fs.fed.us enstavros@gmail.com nstephenson@usgs.gov cmstiels@email.arizona.edu fred.swanson@oregonstate.edu ctague@bren.ucsb.edu kathryn_a_thomas@usgs.gov jhthorne@ucdavis.edu pvanmantgem@usgs.gov ross.vantil@noaa.gov judy_visty@nps.gov Weiss, Stuart Westfall, Robert Wood, Michele Zald, Harold Creekside Center for Earth Observation US Forest Service, PSW Research Station California State University, Fullerton Oregon State University, College of Forestry 39 stu@creeksidescience.com bwestfall@fs.fed.us mwood@fullerton.edu harold.zald@oregonstate.edu 40 Notes 41 Notes 42