Presiding:
L J Graumlich, School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona;
H F Diaz, NOAA, Earth System Research Lab;
M D Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography;
C I Millar, USDA Forest Service, Sierra Nevada Research Center
TALK
Complexity of mountain climates, ecosystem responses, and management decisions in the face of climate change: a new focus of Long Term Ecological Research at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest
* Bond, B J barbara.bond@oregonstate.edu, Dept. of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, 321
Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97330, United States
Harmon, M E mark.harmon@oregonstate.edu, Dept. of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University,
321 Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97330, United States
Johnson, S L johnsons@fsl.orst.edu, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory,
3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
Jones, J A jonesj@geo.oregonstate.edu, Dept. of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall,
Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
Spies, T A tom.spies@oregonstate.edu, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Forestry Sciences
Laboratory, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
With 1200 m of relief over 6400 ha, steep mountain slopes and heterogeneity of the physical and biological landscape are prominent features of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Andrews Forest) in the western
Cascades of Oregon. As an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site, the Andrews Forest benefits from decades of long-term measurements and intensive research, and previous work has documented how topography influences vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and hydrology. More recently, research has revealed that complex terrain influences climate and ecological processes in surprising an unexpected ways. For example, airflow patterns through mountain valleys result in complex relationships between microclimates and synoptic weather patterns. While evidence is building that ecosystems throughout the world are responding to a changing global climate, long-term studies at the Andrews Forest show limited evidence so far of responses to climate change. Has heterogeneity of the landscape and complexity of microclimate somehow buffered ecosystems in the Andrews Forest from impacts of climate change? Will this system suddenly show a large response to climate change at some critical point in the future? Should forest management practices be altered now to accommodate potential climate change, and if so, how? A primary focus of the newest six-year funding cycle for the Andrews LTER program will focus on these questions. In this presentation we will outline details of our research plans and we will elicit feedback and discussion about how to better coordinate our research with similar research efforts at other sites. http://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/lter
INVITED TALK
California Action to Increase Resiliency to Climate Change Impacts
* Brunello, A Tony.Brunello@resources.ca.gov, California Resources Agency, 1416 9th St, Ste 1411, Sacramento,
CA 95814, United States
With the passage and implementation of California's Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), California is providing international leadership in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. In concert with these efforts, California is also developing a comprehensive state climate adaptation strategy to increase the state's resiliency to existing and projected sea level rise, rising temperatures, and precipitation changes. I will describe the process being used to develop the strategy, which focuses on identifying areas most vulnerable to climate impacts, developing strategies to reduce risks to vulnerable areas, and implementing an action plan. An emphasis on strategies related to mountain environments such as the Sierra Nevada Mountain range will be presented.

INVITED TALK
Dynamics of Natural Variability: Ecological Complexity in a Changing World
* Falk, D A dafalk@u.arizona.edu, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, 105 West Stadium University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
* Falk, D A dafalk@u.arizona.edu, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721,
United States
* Falk, D A dafalk@u.arizona.edu, School of Natural Resources, 325 Biological Sciences East University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
Savage, M forests@ucla.edu, Four Corners Institute, 1477 1/2 Canyon Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, United States
Swetnam, T W tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, 105 West Stadium University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
One of the central challenges in ecology, both theoretical and applied, is understanding how complex systems respond to spatial and temporal variability in their environment. In the context of contemporary and near-term climate variation, this issue can be reframed to ask whether future climate represents "no- analogue" conditions compared to the ecologically relevant past. If future ecosystems operate under climatic and landscape conditions that exceed the envelope of past variability, then it could be argued that our characterizations of how ecosystems functioned in the past may no longer be relevant. In this model, reconstruction of paleoecosystems is still essential for assessing whether systems have exceeded the envelope of past variability, but less useful for predicting future system behavior.
This view of the relationship between climate variability and ecosystem function is based largely on statistical characterization of the historical range of variability (HRV) over some temporal and spatial frame of reference. We present an alternative way of thinking about this problem, which focuses on the dynamics of natural systems (DNV) rather than simply their statistical characterization. By emphasizing dynamic interactions among ecosystem components, combined with reconstruction of past environmental variability, we focus attention on the inherently time-varying, nonlinear interaction properties of complex systems. When driving factors exceed the range of past observed values, the ecological response may be correspondingly unfamiliar. This may not mean that the system is operating by different rules, but rather that the functional relationships have shifted to new domains. We provide a series of examples illustrating a DNV perspective, including changes in fire regimes and post-fire vegetation response, insect outbreaks, and species geographic movements in response to changing climates and landscapes.
We suggest that an emphasis on dynamic interactions will be better able to predict the behavior of systems in the context of changes in climate and the landscape template.
INVITED TALK
Confronting Complexity: Adaptation Strategies for Managing Biodiversity in the Face of Rapid Climate
Change
* Graumlich, L lisag@cals.arizona.edu, School of Natural Resources, The University of Arizona, 325 Biosciences
East, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
Cross, M mcross@wcs.org, Wildlife Conservation Society, 301 N Willson Ave, Bozeman, MT 59715,
Tabor, G wildcatalyst@gmail.com, Center for Large Landscape Conservation, Yellowstone to Yukon Initiative, P.O.
Box 1587, Bozeman, MT 59771, United States
Enquist, C cenquist@tnc.org, Climate Change Ecology Program, The Nature Conservancy of New Mexico, Santa Fe,
NM 87501, United States
Rowland, E bhhtstewardship@verizon.net, School of Natural Resources, The University of Arizona, 325 Biosciences
East, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
There is no doubt that the montane landscapes of the Western US are being transformed by a complex interplay of changing climate, growing urban centers, altered disturbance regimes and invasive species. Among this suite of drivers of change, climate change has emerged as a critical concern of managers and agencies concerned with protected areas and protected species. These managers are under intensifying pressure to come up with scientifically robust and socially acceptable plans for adaptation to climate change. Those charged with managing biodiversity in the face of change have turned to the scientific community for decision support tools that they can implement immediately to proactively address adaptation. Broadly speaking, this is good news for that part of the scientific community that is keen to engage in translational science, even if the timeline is a bit breathtaking. A key challenge in this endeavor is to find common ground between all those issues that define complexity for the scientific community
(e.g., nonlinearity, thresholds, cross-scale interactions) and a range of issues that define complexity for the management community (e.g., multiple jurisdictions, regulatory issues, values of diverse stakeholders). In this talk, we reflect on emerging strategies that seek to infuse adaptation into climate change into landscape scale conservation planning in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and the Southwestern US. We describe how climate change challenges current adaptive management practices to 1) anticipate a broad range of climate trajectories,

including no-analog scenarios, and 2) to actively incorporate new information from positive outcomes and negative consequences of management interventions. The success of such adaption hinges on public understanding and acceptance of the process of adaption, which, in turn, demands even greater attention to be paid to increasing public understanding of the intersection of climate change and the role of biodiversity in providing ecological services.
INVITED TALK
Variations in Spatial Precipitation Patterns in the Sierra Nevada, California: Implications for Hydrologic
Modeling and Water Resource Planning
* Lundquist, J D jdlund@u.washington.edu, University of Washington, Civil and Env. Engineering Box 352700,
Seattle, WA 98195, United States
Lott, F lottf@u.washington.edu, University of Washington, Civil and Env. Engineering Box 352700, Seattle, WA
98195, United States
Minder, J juminder@atmos.washington.edu, University of Washington, Civil and Env. Engineering Box 352700,
Seattle, WA 98195, United States
Rosenberg, E ericrose@u.washington.edu, University of Washington, Civil and Env. Engineering Box 352700,
Seattle, WA 98195, United States
A common assumption in hydrologic and hydro-climate simulations in complex terrain is that the relationship between precipitation measured at a point and basin-average precipitation remains nearly constant through time. For example, distributed hydrologic models are often run by using PRISM long-term average precipitation patterns to map station data to grid cells across a basin, and the California Department of Water Resources uses regression equations based on select station data to predict basin-wide runoff. In California, where most storms arrive from the Pacific Ocean to the west, this generally works well. However, in years when moisture-laden air flow intersects the mountain range at an angle substantially different from the norm, such as in 2007, these practices can yield substantial errors. Here, we use distributed streamflow simulations and measurements, NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis data, MODIS images of snowpack depletion, PRISM precipitation maps, and a linear orographic precipitation model to examine the spatial and temporal significance of the prevailing air flow direction during precipitation events on Sierra Nevada hydrology.
TALK
Influence of Increasing Surface Humidity on Winter Warming at High Altitudes Through the 21st Century
* Rangwala, I imtiazr@envsci.rutgers.edu, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College
Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States
Miller, J miller@marine.rutgers.edu, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road,
New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States
Russell, G L Gary.L.Russell@nasa.gov, NASA / Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY
10025, United States
Xu, M mingxu@crssa.rutgers.edu, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, 14
College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States
We examine the influence of surface specific humidity (q) in mediating the rate of surface warming, particularly at high altitude regions, during the late 20th century and the 21st century. The focus is on observations and global climate model projections for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the San Juan Mountain (SJM) region in southwest
Colorado. For each region, we find that increases in q leads to relatively large increases in downward longwave radiation (DLR). This effect is enhanced in colder months and at higher altitudes, and the winter warming in the TP is about twice the warming during other seasons. For the TP, the model shows that for the highest elevations the largest warming between 1950-2100 occurs during winter and spring. The increases in DLR influenced by increases in q during winter and increases in absorbed solar radiation influenced by decreases in snow cover extent during spring are, in part, the reason for a large warming trend over the plateau. These two effects also appear to produce the model's elevation dependent warming trend. For the SJM region, the observations show that the q have been increasing at more than 10 percent per decade from October through January between 1990-2005, when the region experienced the largest increases in surface temperatures. Moreover, only during these months do diurnal changes in q explain the large variability in the corresponding changes in temperature. The largest changes in DLR also appear to occur during these months. Large increases in DLR during January and December coincide with large increases in temperatures and, in part, indicate the causes for a large warming trend during these months.
TALK
Mountains, climate indices, and mountain pine beetle outbreaks

* Thomson, A J athomson@pfc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre 506 West Burnside
Road, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5, Canada
The current mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia and Alberta is the most damaging on record. Outbreak variability in BC has been related to drought patterns. Outbreak collapse has been related to extreme cold temperatures in winter. Evaluation of the potential of severe winter temperatures to limit spread, in particular from BC to Alberta, is further complicated by concerns about climate change. Average minimum temperature at a weather station, modified by elevation effects, determines the number of days in the month falling below threshold levels of -
20oC, -30oC and -40oC; i.e., determines the likelihood of unseasonably low temperatures that have lethal consequences for mountain pine beetle. Average minimum January temperature in British Columbia and Alberta was found to be determined by the interaction of the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA) and the Northern Annular
Mode (NAM) climate indices, with the pattern of interaction varying across British Columbia and Alberta.
TALK
Weather, Topoclimate, and Phenology: Population Dynamics of Checkerspot Butterflies in Complex Terrain
* Weiss, S B stu@creeksidescience.com, Creekside Center for Earth Observation, 27 Bishop Lane, Menlo Park, CA
94025, United States
The pathways leading from climate and weather to the distribution and abundance of organisms need to be clarified as rapid climate change affects ecosystems. This presentation describes population dynamics of the threatened Bay checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis, in topographically complex habitat and demonstrates how weather and topoclimate drives those dynamics through phenology of butterflies and larval hostplants. We sampled densities of postdiapause larvae at sites in a 100 ha reserve, stratified by Mar 21 potential insolation, to estimate numbers and microdistribution of larvae. Larval numbers ranged from 27,000 to 900,000 over the 24-year study
(1985-2008). Four consecutive drought years from 1987 to 1990 led to a 96% decrease in numbers, and sharp declines were observed following warmer than average growing seasons. Changes in larval numbers were negatively correlated to mean growing season temperatures (r
2
= 0.36, p < 0.02), and the best stepwise regression model included April temperature, and November and April rainfall (r 2 = 0.57, p < 0.001). Changes in the microdistribution of larvae cross the topoclimatic gradient was correlated with change in numbers (r2 = 0.41, p < 0.01) -- when larval numbers increased, the distribution of larvae shifted towards warmer slopes, and when numbers decreased, the distribution shifted toward cooler slopes. Larval densities were least variable on cooler slopes, indicating that cooler slopes provided core habitat and refugia from warm temperatures. The length of the phenological window between peak flight and hostplant senescence predicted population response (r
2
= 0.44, p < 0.005). Hostplant senescence patterns across slopes � " plants remain green for 4 or more weeks later on cool N-facing slopes than on warm Sfacing slopes - explains microdistributional shifts. Many species depend on phenological coincidence with host resources, and occupy complex terrain as well, and these patterns and mechanisms may be broadly applicable to conservation and management. http://www.creeksidescience.com
Presiding:
C I Millar, USDA Forest Service, Sierra Nevada Research Center;
Y Sheng, UCLA Geography; M Abbott, University of Pittsburgh
POSTER
A New GLORIA (Global Research Initiative in Alpine Environments Site in Southwestern Montana
* Apple, M E mapple@mtech.edu, Department of Biological Sciences, Montana Tech of the University of Montana,
Butte, Montana, Butte, MT 59701, United States
Warden, J E jewarden@mtech.edu, Department of Biological Sciences, Montana Tech of the University of Montana,
Butte, Montana, Butte, MT 59701, United States
Apple, C J cappleski@hotmail.com
Pullman, T Y typullman@mtech.edu, Department of Biological Sciences, Montana Tech of the University of Montana,
Butte, Montana, Butte, MT 59701, United States
Gallagher, J H jgallagher@opendap.org, OPeNDAP, 125 W. Granite St. Suite 200 A, Butte, Montana 59701, Butte,
MT 59701, United States

Global climate change is predicted to have a major impact on the alpine environments and plants of western North
America. Alpine plant species and treelines may migrate upwards due to warmer temperatures. Species composition, vegetation cover, and the phenology of photosynthesis, flowering, pollination, and seed dispersal may change. The
Global Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) is a network of alpine sites established with the goal of understanding the interactions between climate change and alpine plants. The Continental Divide traverses
Southwestern Montana, where the flora contains representative species from both sides of the divide. In the summer of 2008, we established a GLORIA site in southwestern Montana east of the Continental Divide with the objective of determining whether the temperature changes at the site, and if so, how temperature changes influence alpine plants.
We are monitoring soil temperature along with species composition and percent cover of alpine plants at four subsummits along an ascending altitudinal gradient. We placed the treeline, lower alpine, and upper alpine sites on Mt.
Fleecer (45°49'36.06"N, 112°48'08.18"W, 2886.2 m (9469 ft)) and the highest sub-summit on Keokirk Mountain,
(45°35'37.94"N, 112°57'03.89"W, 2987.3 m (9801 ft)) in the Pioneer Range. Interesting species on these mountains include Lewisia pygmaea , the Pygmy Bitterroot, Silene acaulis , the Moss Campion, Eritrichium nanum , the Alpine
Forget-Me-Not,
Lloydia serotina
, the Alpine Lily, and
Pinus albicaulis
, the Whitebark Pine. This new site will remain in place indefinitely. Baseline and subsequent data from this site will be linked with the global network of GLORIA sites with which we will assess changes in alpine flora.
POSTER
Development of a GIS Database to Evaluate Climate-Induced Streamflow Timing Changes in the Sierra
Nevada, California
* Bates, D J DBates@scu.edu, Santa Clara University, Environmental Studies Institute 500 El Camino Real, Santa
Clara, CA 95053, United States
Stewart, I T IStewartFrey@scu.edu, Santa Clara University, Environmental Studies Institute 500 El Camino Real,
Santa Clara, CA 95053, United States
Maurer, E P EMaurer@scu.edu, Santa Clara University, Civil Engineering Dept. 500 El Camino Real, Santa Clara,
CA 95053, United States
Recent studies have indicated that generally warmer temperatures have led to reduced snowpack and earlier timing of peak snowmelt throughout California and the West, potentially resulting in serious consequences for ecosystems and human water supplies. While the link between increased temperatures and shifts in streamflow timing appears well established, there is very little information that helps to explain the varying responses to increased temperatures in different watersheds. In order to understand the observed changes in streamflow timing, this study analyzed the physical watershed characteristics for approximately 60 stream gauges in California that have at least 30 years of continuous data, are snowmelt dominated, and relatively free from human influences. Geographic Information
Systems (GIS) software was used to delineate the watersheds above the gauges from Digital Elevation Models
(DEMs), and a database of the characteristics such as the distribution of elevation, slope, aspect, soil, and vegetation in the watersheds above the gauges was constructed. Thus several classes of snowmelt-dominated watersheds could be established based on physical characteristics, and these classes could be linked to varying degrees of streamflow timing change. Defining the physical properties of each basin will contribute to a better understanding and predictability of California's hydrologic response to climate change.
POSTER
Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA): Results From Four Target Regions in California
* Butz, R J rbutz@ucmerced.edu, University of California, Merced, School of Natural Sciences P.O. Box 2039,
Merced, CA 95344, United States
Dennis, A adennis@calflora.org, Calflora, 1700 Shattuck Ave. #198, Berkeley, CA 94709, United States
Millar, C I cmillar@fs.fed.us, Sierra Nevada Research Center, PSW Research Station USDA Forest Service 800
Buchanan St., Albany, CA 94710, United States
Westfall, R D bwestfall@fs.fed.us, Sierra Nevada Research Center, PSW Research Station USDA Forest Service
P.O. Box 245, Berkeley, CA 94701, United States
The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) is a worldwide network of long- term research sites established to assess the impacts of climate change in sensitive native alpine communities. Many alpine species face habitat fragmentation and loss, and even extinction because they are adapted to cold temperatures and very limited in their geographic distribution. This study summarizes the data collected from four sites comprised of three to four summits each in the Sierra Nevada and White Mountain ranges of California. The 14 summits cover elevational gradients ranging from 3170m to 4285m. On each summit, habitat characteristics, species composition, species cover, and frequency counts are recorded in sixteen 1m x 1m quadrats. Additional surveys on

the percentage cover of surface types and of each species in eight larger plots extending to 10m below the summit focus on detecting changes in species richness and species migrations. Sites were analyzed both independently and as a group to explore similarities and differences in species composition, plant functional groups, phenology, and response to climate. A total of 124 species were identified across all sites. The summits within each site exhibited rich, heterogeneous plant communities, but ones in which most species were infrequent. Northern slopes generally had the highest vegetation cover and eastern slopes, the lowest. Elevation, aspect, and substrate all strongly influenced community composition. The average minimum winter soil temperature varied by more than 10C between the lowest and highest sites in the gradient. Resampling over time will allow us to discern trends in species diversity and temperature, and assess and predict losses in biodiversity and other threats to these fragile alpine ecosystems.
Results from this work will contribute to a predictive understanding of shifts in the distribution of alpine species with climate warming in the western U.S.; expand existing long-term data sets on the effects of climate change in alpine environments; and provide standardized, quantitative data on the altitudinal differences in species richness, species compositions, vegetation cover, soil temperature, and snow cover period.
POSTER
Potential Disappearance of Subalpine Vegetation from Yosemite
* Conklin, D R david.conklin@oregonstate.edu, Oregon State University, Biological & Ecological Eng., 116 Gilmore
Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
Bachelet, D bachelet@fsl.orst.edu, Oregon State University, Biological & Ecological Eng., 116 Gilmore Hall, Corvallis,
OR 97331, United States
Kuhn, B Bill_Kuhn@nps.gov, National Park Service, Yosemite National Park, P.O. Box 700, El Portal, CA 95318,
United States
Panek, J A jpanek@arb.ca.gov, California Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento, CA 95814, United States van Wagtendonk, J W Jan_van_wagtendonk@usgs.gov, U.S. Geological Survey, USGS Western Ecological
Research Center, Yosemite Field Station, 5083 Foresta Road, El Portal, CA 95318-1452, United States
A modeling study at 800m spatial resolution indicates that Yosemite National Park could lose its subalpine meadows and forests. Under the hottest and driest of three future climate-emissions scenarios, the existing alpine and subalpine vegetation is replaced with conifer forests currently found at lower elevations. Vegetation changes are less dramatic under the lowest temperature increase, but in that scenario lower elevation forests shift from predominantly conifers to a mixture of conifers and broadleaf trees. The study makes use of a newly available 800 meter historical
U.S. climate dataset from the PRISM group and of the Park's soil and vegetation cover data to drive the MC1 dynamic general vegetation model. Observations of vegetation shifts and documented fire history and fuel loads in the Park are used to test the model.
POSTER
Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach
* Dana, G L Gayle.Dana@dri.edu, Desert Research Institute Division of Hydrologic Sciences, 2215 Raggio Parkway,
Reno, NV 89512, United States
Lancaster, N nick.lancaster@dri.edu, Desert Research Institute Division of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, 2215
Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512, United States
Mensing, S A smensing@unr.edu, University of Nevada, Reno Department of Geography, 154 Mackay Science Hall,
Reno, NV 89557, United States
Piechota, T Thomas.Piechota@unlv.edu, University of Nevada, Las Vegas Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Box 451087, Las Vegas, NV 89154, United States
The Great Basin is characterized by complex basin and range topography, arid to semiarid climate, and a history of sensitivity to climate change. Mountain areas comprise about 10% of the landscape, yet are the areas of highest precipitation and generate 85% of groundwater recharge and most surface runoff. These characteristics provide an ideal natural laboratory to study the effects of climate change. The Nevada system of Higher Education, including the
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, the University of Nevada, Reno, the Desert Research Institute, and Nevada State
College have begun a five year research and infrastructure building program, funded by the National Science
Foundation Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (NSF EPSCoR) with the vision "to create a statewide interdisciplinary program and virtual climate change center that will stimulate transformative research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem resources (especially water) and support use of this knowledge by policy makers and stakeholders." Six major strategies are proposed to develop infrastructure needs and attain our vision: 1) Develop a capability to model climate change at a regional and subregional scale(Climate Modeling Component) 2) Analyze effects on ecosystems and disturbance regimes (Ecological
Change Component) 3) Quantify and model changes in water balance and resources under climate change (Water
Resources Component) 4) Assess effects on human systems and enhance policy making and outreach to

communities and stakeholders (Policy, Decision-Making, and Outreach Component) 5) Develop a data portal and software to support interdisciplinary research via integration of data from observational networks and modeling
(Cyberinfrastructure Component) and 6) Train teachers and students at all levels and provide public outreach in climate change issues (Education Component). Two new climate observational transects will be established across
Great Basin Ranges, one anticipated on a mountain range in southern Nevada and the second to be located in northcentral Nevada. Climatic, hydrologic and ecological data from these transects will be downloaded into high capacity data storage units and made available to researchers through creation of the Nevada climate change portal. Our research will aim to answer two interdisciplinary science questions key to understanding the effects of future climate change on Great Basin mountain ecosystems and the potential management strategies for responding to these changes: 1) How will climate change affect water resources and linked ecosystem resources and human systems?
And 2) How will climate change affect disturbance regimes (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, insect outbreaks, droughts) and linked systems? Infrastructure developed through this project will provide new interdisciplinary capability to detect, analyze, and model effects of regional climate change in mountainous regions of the west and provide a major contribution to existing climate change research and monitoring networks. http://www.nevada.edu/epscor/
POSTER
Analysis of Climate and Topographic Controls on Burn Severity in the Western United States (1984-2005)
* Holden, Z A zholden@vandals.uidaho.edu, University of Idaho, Department of Forest Resources CNR Room 203,
Moscow, ID 83843, United States
* Holden, Z A zholden@vandals.uidaho.edu, Missoula Fire Science Laboratory, 5775 Hwy 10 West, Missoula, MT
59802, United States
Crimmins, M crimmins@u.arizona.edu, University of Arizona, Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science
P.O. Box 210038, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
Luce, C cluce@fs.fed.us, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, 322 East Front St. Suite 401, Boise, ID 83702,
United States
Heyerdahl, E K eheyerdahl@fs.fed.us, Missoula Fire Science Laboratory, 5775 Hwy 10 West, Missoula, MT 59802,
United States
Morgan, P pmorgan@uidaho.edu, University of Idaho, Department of Forest Resources CNR Room 203, Moscow, ID
83843, United States
Fire activity in the western US is likely to increase with climate warming. However, relationships between climate and the magnitude of vegetation change (severity) associated with recent fires have not been quantified. The magnitude of change associated with fires is a critical component of understanding fire- induced emissions carbon loss and ecosystem change. We present statistical analyses of 22-year climate- burn severity relationships for more than 1200 major wildfires in the Pacific Northwest region of the western U.S. Using stream gage, soil moisture, temperature, precipitation data and North American Regional Reanalysis data, we examine the relative influences of climate
(precipitation and temperature) and fire weather (wind, relative humidity) on burn severity of individual fires, and regional analyses of area burned severely. Our results show statistically significant relationships between temperature, precipitation and the proportion of each fire classified as high-severity. Using Fragstats metrics for each fire, we show increasingly large patch sizes and homogenous patch distributions associated with warmer, drier conditions. Using topographic variables and the random forest machine learning algorithm, we analyze the occurrence of severely burned areas relative to 12 topographic variables. Classification accuracy results are high
(greater than 70 percent) suggesting that there is some predictability in where fires are likely to occur.
POSTER
Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century under five Downscaled
Climate Change Scenarios
* Ironside, K E Kirsten.Ironside@nau.edu, Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Northern Arizona
University Bldg 56 Suite 220 Rm. 223 P.O. Box 4071, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States
Cole, K L Ken.Cole@nau.edu, USGS Southwest Biological Research Center, P.O. Box 5614, Bldg. 56 Northern
Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States
Eischeid, J K Jon.K. Eischeid@noaa.gov, University of Colorado, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
Garfin, G M gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu, The University of Arizona, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, Tucson,
AZ 85721- 0156, United States
Shaw, J D jdshaw@fs.fed.us, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, 507 25th Street,
Ogden, UT 84401, United States

Cobb, N S Neil.Cobb@nau.edu, Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Northern Arizona University
Bldg 56 Suite 220 Rm. 223 P.O. Box 4071, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States
Ponderosa pine (
Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum
) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance
(precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC
General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th
Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species ( Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia ) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.
POSTER
Characterizing Hydrologic Variability in Tributaries of the Upper Colorado River Basin Over the 20th Century
* Matter, M A Margaret.Matter@Colostate.edu, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State
University, Fort Collins, CO 80525-1372, United States
Garcia, L A Luis.Garcia@Colostate.edu, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State
University, Fort Collins, CO 80525-1372, United States
Fontane, D G Darrell.Fontane@Colostate.edu, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State
University, Fort Collins, CO 80525-1372, United States
Increasing hydrologic variability is cited as a major cause of decreasing accuracy and lead time of water supply forecasts in the Colorado River Basin. Factors contributing to hydrologic variability include climate cycles, climate change and modifications to land use, land cover and water use. This research strives to understand the underpinnings of hydrologic variability (i.e., temperature, precipitation and streamflow) associated with climate cycles, and subsequent effects of external forcings on climate cycles over the 20th Century in tributaries of the Upper
Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Results for three climate cycles during the 20th Century (i.e. cool/wet, warm/dry and cool/wet) for tributaries of the UCRB show that hydrologic variability involves two components; (a) general seasonal temperature conditions that are the same for fall and winter seasons (i.e., warmer fall/warmer winter or cooler fall/cooler winter) which do not change with climate cycle type (e.g., warmer/drier or cooler/wetter climate cycles), and
(b) underlying complementary temperature and precipitation patterns that are unique to the type of climate cycle. The complementary temperature and precipitation patterns establish by fall, are detectable as early as September and are related to relative magnitude of upcoming annual basin yield. External forcings, including climate change and modifications to land use, act upon the complementary patterns, changing details of the complementary patterns, such as timing and magnitude of temperature and precipitation, yet leaving the fundamental complementary patterns in tact. Thus, hydrologic variability in the UCRB over the 20th Century is recognized as complementary patterns in temperature and precipitation which alternate with climate cycles, and upon which external forcings act, altering details of complementary patterns, as well as streamflow. The results expand our understanding of hydrologic processes in the UCRB, and may be used to improve forecast models and data, well as to increase forecast accuracy and advance lead time by as much as 6-7 months or more. In addition, results may also be used in downscaling climate models.
POSTER
Simulating the Effects of Climate Change, CO2 and Fire Suppression on Ecosystems in California and
Nevada
* McGlinchy, M maureen.mcglinchy@oregonstate.edu, Oregon State University, Forest Ecosystems and Society, 321
Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
Neilson, R P neilson@fsl.orst.edu, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson
Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
Lenihan, J M lenihan@fsl.orst.edu, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson
Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States

We use MC1, a dynamic vegetation model, to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and augmented carbon dioxide on vegetation distribution in northern California and Nevada. We will discuss changes in productivity, vegetation type and fire regime using 21st-century climate scenarios provided by three general circulation models.
Particularly we will analyze the effects of varying levels of fire suppression on vegetation and fire behavior. This model study is executed on an 800-meter grid and will be compared to earlier California-specific simulations using a
10-kilometer scale. Results from the coarser-resolution study suggest an increase in total annual area burned within
California, with a subsequent increase in annual biomass consumption.
POSTER
Disturbance, Complexity, and Scale in Western Mountain Ecosystems
* McKenzie, D dmck@u.washington.edu, US Forest Service, 400 N 34th St #201, Seattle, WA 98103, United States
Littell, J S jlittell@u.washington.edu, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195-2100, United States
Oneil, E E eoneil@u.washington.edu, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195-2100, United States
Hicke, J A jhicke@uidaho.edu, University of Idaho, PO Box 443021, Moscow, ID 83844-3021, United States
The principal effects of global warming in western mountain forests will likely be experienced through increased intensity and extent of disturbances, mainly wildfire and insect outbreaks. Disturbance resets successional pathways and increasing disturbance can produce rapid ecosystem change. Much progress has been made in estimating broad-scale changes in fire regimes in a warming climate, but predictions are more difficult at the 'landscape' scale, at which top-down (climate) and bottom-up (topography and vegetation) controls interact. Landscape spatial pattern also interacts with contagious disturbance (fire spread and insect outbreaks), creating nonlinear, often positive, feedbacks across space and through time. We present new work from an assessment of expected effects of climate change on forests in Washington State, drawing on an ongoing thought experiment, regarding 'stress complexes', or interacting processes that force ecosystem change, to help identify specific vulnerabilities of mountain ecosystems across the state. Warming temperatures and prolonged droughts will produce more severe fires, more drought stress in dense forest stands created by fire exclusion, greater vulnerability of pine species to mortality from beetles, but reduced area of optimal habitat for beetle populations, which will be best adapted to high elevations. This complex of stresses will likely produce significant challenges for adaptation, with vulnerabilities to rapid irreversible changes being the greatest concern.
POSTER
Integrating the GLORIA sampling design into British Columbia's Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification system.
* Osorio, F G fgom@interchange.ubc.ca, The University of British Columbia. Department of Forest Science, #3601-
2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
MacKenzie, W Will.MacKenzie@gov.bc.ca, Ministry of Forests and Range Research Branch, Skeena-Stikine District
Office 3333 Tatlow Rd BAG 6000, Smithers, BC V0J 2N0, Canada
High elevation ecosystems (alpine and subalpine) form nearly 20% of British Columbia's terrestrial land base. Most of these ecosystems remain pristine, yet the current surge in mineral exploration and recreation is presenting an unprecedented challenge for ecosystem management in the province. The current effort to describe and classify alpine plant ecosystems can be significantly aided by integrating and further developing GLORIA sites throughout
British Columbia. The yearly data from each target region of GLORIA's Multi- summit approach can be used to quantify and differentiate alpine ecosystems based on botanical composition and timing of snowmelt. These site descriptors will strengthen the ongoing development of alpine site associations across the province while providing researchers further information to understand the edaphic amplitudes of indicator species for high-elevation plant communities. Furthermore, the soil temperature measurements can provide an efficient way to map the regional variation in snowmelt patterns, which is a primary gradient in the high-elevation biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification approach. A comprehensive and accurate classification will provide land managers a much needed starting point in high- elevation ecosystem management.
POSTER
Climate Change Effects on Cascade Mountain Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Storage
* Rogers, B M brog107@gmail.com, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, 321
Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States
Neilson, R P, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR
97331, United States

Drapek, R , USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331,
United States
Lenihan, J M, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR
97331, United States
Wells, J R, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331,
United States
Because of steep topographical, edaphic, and meteorological gradients, minor changes in climate can have significant effects on the distribution of mountain ecosystems. This is of particular concern given the magnitude of predicted climate changes during the 21st century. To assess the sensitivity of mountain ecosystems to climate change, we downscaled data from nine general circulation model simulations (three GCMs each run at three CO2 emission scenarios) to an 800-meter resolution grid spanning a region of the Oregon and Washington Cascade mountain range. We then used MC1, a dynamic vegetation model, to simulate changes in the Cascade forest vegetation types and carbon loads during the projected 21st century climates. MC1 simulates competition for water, nutrients, and light between plant functional types and uses a biogeographical rule base to classify vegetation type. It also contains a detailed and interactive fire module. Changes in ecotone elevation, ecosystem spatial extent, and carbon storage are shown to be non- linear responses of temperature and precipitation forecasts over the 100-year time frame. Two hydrologic factors associated with higher temperatures interact to be dominant mechanisms of change: (1) an increasing synchrony between precipitation and the beginning of the Pacific Northwest growing season, and (2) earlier snowmelt. Both act to increase the available water content at the start of the growing season but also increase drought stress later in the summer.
POSTER
Connecting Snowmelt Runoff Timing Changes to Watershed Characteristics in California
* Stewart, I T IStewartFrey@scu.edu, Santa Clara University, Environmental Studies Institute 500 El Camino Real,
Santa Clara, CA 95053, United States
Peterson, D H dhpete@usgs.gov, USGS, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025,
Shifts in the timing of snowmelt runoff are an expected consequence of climatic changes and have been observed throughout western North America for the past several decades. While the snowmelt runoff has in general come earlier, the magnitude, and sometimes direction, of streamflow timing trends has varied throughout the region in a manner that is not explained by the differences in location or gauge elevation alone. The gauge-to-gauge differences in the observed streamflow timing trends, which have not been systematically explored, are investigated in this study by linking the hydrologic response of a stream to the physical characteristics of the watershed above the gauge. To this end, the very recent trends in streamflow timing measures (such as the timing of the start of the spring snowmelt pulse, the timing of the center of mass for flow, the annual flow, and the timing of the day when maximum flow occurs) for approximately 60 snowmelt-dominated gauges in California were analyzed in conjunction with a GISbased data base of the watershed characteristics (such as elevation distribution, slope, aspect, and vegetation) through the 2008 runoff season. The improved knowledge of how a watershed has reacted to recent climatic changes can aid in the development of future adaptive strategies in managing water resources in California.
POSTER
The Natural Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Potential of Rocky Mountain Soils Derived From Volcanic
Bedrock
* Yager, D B dyager@usgs.gov, U.S.G.S., P.O. Box 25046, MS 973, Denver, CO 80225, United States
Burchell, A a_burchell@comcast.net, NCS, Burchell Consulting, P.O. Box 3671, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
Johnson, R H rhjohnson@usgs.gov, U.S.G.S., P.O. Box 25046, MS 973, Denver, CO 80225, United States
The possible economic and environmental ramifications of climate change have stimulated a range of atmospheric carbon mitigation actions, as well as, studies to understand and quantify potential carbon sinks. However, current carbon management strategies for reducing atmospheric emissions underestimate a critical component. Soils represent between 18 ? 30% of the terrestrial carbon sink needed to prevent atmospheric doubling of CO2 by 2050 and a crucial element in mitigating climate change, natural terrestrial sequestration (NTS), is required. NTS includes all naturally occurring, cumulative, biologic and geologic processes that either remove CO2 from the atmosphere or prevent net CO2 emissions through photosynthesis and microbial fixation, soil formation, weathering and adsorption or chemical reactions involving principally alumino- ferromagnesium minerals, volcanic glass and clays. Additionally,
NTS supports ecosystem services by improving soil productivity, moisture retention, water purification and reducing erosion. Thus, 'global climate triage' must include the protection of high NTS areas, purposeful enhancement of NTS

processes and reclamation of disturbed and mined lands. To better understand NTS, we analyzed soil-cores from
Colorado, Rocky Mountain Cordillera sites. North-facing, high-plains to alpine sites in non-wetland environments were selected to represent temperate soils that may be less susceptible to carbon pool declines due to global warming than soils in warmer regions. Undisturbed soils sampled have 2 to 6 times greater total organic soil carbon (TOSC) than global TOSC averages (4 ? 5 Wt. %). Forest soils derived from weathering of intermediate to mafic volcanic bedrock have the highest C (34.15 Wt. %), C:N (43) and arylsulfatase (ave. 278, high 461 μ g p-nitrophenol/g/h).
Intermediate TOSC was identified in soils derived from Cretaceous shale (7.2 Wt. %) and Precambrian, felsic gneiss
(6.2 Wt. %). Unreclaimed mine-sites have the lowest C (0.01 to 0.78 Wt. %), C:N (2.4 to 6.5), and arylsulfatase (0 to
41). However, reclaimed and undisturbed mined-lands soils derived from propylitized andesite have high C (13.5 ?
25.6 Wt. %), C:N (27), arylsulfatase (338). In our previous studies, propylitic bedrock were also found to have a high acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) characterized by epidote-chlorite-calcite. Radiocarbon dates on charcoal collected from paleo-burn horizons (found in high C, N soils) indicate an old carbon pool (840-5,440 ]pm40 yrs B.P). High-flow dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations are low (ave. 1.9 ppm) in both surface water and ground-water samples collected in subalpine catchments underlain by intermediate to mafic igneous bedrocks. The low DOC concentrations are consistent with these soils sequestering carbon. This is likely related to high specific surface area and high adsorption-enhancing Ca-Mg-Fe clays. Observations at naturally-reclaimed mine sites indicate the use of
ANC rock plus other soil amendments (biochar, soil nutrients, bioactive teas, native vegetation seeding) can aid more traditional reclamation measures that use limestone and compost hauled from long distances by reducing both the cost and carbon footprint of reclamation projects.