Deriving high resolution historical
and future climate databases
for mountain environments
Ryan MacDonald, James Byrne,
Stefan Kienzle, Robert Larson
University of Lethbridge
Problem Statement
Climate change impacts on regional
hydrology
complex terrain = complex hydrometeorology
Defining appropriate spatial scales for:
hydrology modeling?
ecology modeling?
Oldman Watershed
Alberta
Topography and microclimate
Slope
Aspect
Elevation
Land cover
Goal
Produce daily climate databases for complex
terrain
Functional for process modeling
Hydrology
Snowpack stability
Ecosystems
High resolution data storage?
100x100 m resolution?
25,000 km2 watershed?
10 daily input and output variables?
Model period 1960-2100 = 140 years
102 TB of disk storage needed ☺
Title change
Deriving high resolution . . .
Deriving meaningful resolution . . .
☺
ANUSPLIN?
Well known spatial interpolation routine
May include covariates in interpolation
elevation
precipitation surface (e.g.. normals)
Using ANUSPLIN – three steps . . .
(Hutchinson, 2004)
1.
Pre-processor
– daily
surfaces
Weather stations
– incomplete
records
ANUSPLIN interpolation
Mean temperature (1985)
Mean precipitation (1985)
ANUSPLIN error analysis
Standard error for temp 1985
Standard error for precip 1985
ANUSPLIN functionality?
Confidence in output?
Process sensitive resolution?
Homogeneous terrain – YES
Complex terrain - NO
Below 1200 m?
Spatial sensitivity - resolution?
1 km
10 km
5 km
Above 1200 m?
MTCLIM to SIMGRID
SIMGRID
100x100 m grid
Terrain categories – GIS grouping of grid
Previous studies?
Upper Oldman watershed
SIMGRID
applications
Sheppard 1996
Lapp 2005
St. Mary headwaters - SIMGRID
Larson 2007
SIMGRID – St Mary basin
June 1
Dec 1
April 1
(Larson 2007)
St. Mary – climate change impacts to 2100?
600
Modelled Q S (million m 3)
500
400
300
200
100
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Historical (solid is base period)
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
(Larson 2007)
Summary
Creating daily climate surfaces for natural
process modelling at a meaningful resolution
Derived with two techniques
Modelling climate change impacts on
complex terrain hydrology
Looking to collaborate on ecosystem
processes
Acknowledgements
Alberta Ingenuity Centre for Water Research
Environment Canada
USGS – Dan Fagre
CIRMOUNT – thanks for the session!
Thanks to you – for listening ☺