Deriving high resolution historical and future climate databases for mountain environments Ryan MacDonald, James Byrne, Stefan Kienzle, Robert Larson University of Lethbridge Problem Statement Climate change impacts on regional hydrology complex terrain = complex hydrometeorology Defining appropriate spatial scales for: hydrology modeling? ecology modeling? Oldman Watershed Alberta Topography and microclimate Slope Aspect Elevation Land cover Goal Produce daily climate databases for complex terrain Functional for process modeling Hydrology Snowpack stability Ecosystems High resolution data storage? 100x100 m resolution? 25,000 km2 watershed? 10 daily input and output variables? Model period 1960-2100 = 140 years 102 TB of disk storage needed ☺ Title change Deriving high resolution . . . Deriving meaningful resolution . . . ☺ ANUSPLIN? Well known spatial interpolation routine May include covariates in interpolation elevation precipitation surface (e.g.. normals) Using ANUSPLIN – three steps . . . (Hutchinson, 2004) 1. Pre-processor – daily surfaces Weather stations – incomplete records ANUSPLIN interpolation Mean temperature (1985) Mean precipitation (1985) ANUSPLIN error analysis Standard error for temp 1985 Standard error for precip 1985 ANUSPLIN functionality? Confidence in output? Process sensitive resolution? Homogeneous terrain – YES Complex terrain - NO Below 1200 m? Spatial sensitivity - resolution? 1 km 10 km 5 km Above 1200 m? MTCLIM to SIMGRID SIMGRID 100x100 m grid Terrain categories – GIS grouping of grid Previous studies? Upper Oldman watershed SIMGRID applications Sheppard 1996 Lapp 2005 St. Mary headwaters - SIMGRID Larson 2007 SIMGRID – St Mary basin June 1 Dec 1 April 1 (Larson 2007) St. Mary – climate change impacts to 2100? 600 Modelled Q S (million m 3) 500 400 300 200 100 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Historical (solid is base period) 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 (Larson 2007) Summary Creating daily climate surfaces for natural process modelling at a meaningful resolution Derived with two techniques Modelling climate change impacts on complex terrain hydrology Looking to collaborate on ecosystem processes Acknowledgements Alberta Ingenuity Centre for Water Research Environment Canada USGS – Dan Fagre CIRMOUNT – thanks for the session! Thanks to you – for listening ☺