U53A: 707 HIGH-ELEVATION RESPONSE OF CONIFERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN, USA: TREELINE ELEVATION IS NOT THE PRIMARY EFFECT 1 USDA Constance I Millar1, Robert D Westfall1, Diane L Delany1, John C King2, Harry A Alden3 Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Box 245, Berkeley, CA; 2 Lone Pine Research, Bozeman, MT; 3 The Smithsonian Institution, Suitland, MD INTRODUCTION Movement of treeline up and downslope is traditionally assumed to be the primary response of high-elevation forests to past climate change (LaMarche 1974, Lloyd and Graumlich 1997), and an anticipated major effect of future global warming. Considerable effort, thus, has focused on discriminating among climatic factors that would cause forests to move up or down slope. In the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin ranges, however, complex and fluctuating changes in forest demography, slope aspect and position, tree growth, crown form, species composition, and site conversions independent of upper treeline shifts are occurring that have not been investigated for possible correlations with climate. We have been investigating forest response to historic climate at timescales including decadal (20th-century) to millennial (the past 3500 years) in varied locations and forest types of the high Sierra Nevada and SW Great Basin ranges. We present overviews of four independent studies that reflect individually and collectively on the issue of climate effects on high-elevation forests. In each study, we used standard tree-ring methods to assess ages of trees and to cross-date deadwood using replicated standard chronologies confirmed with local marker events. STUDY 1: LIMBER PINE POPULATIONS DURING THE PAST 3500 YEARS EXTIRPATE & RECOLONIZE DIVERSE SLOPES & AND CORRELATE WITH CENTURY-SCALE DROUGHTS Limber pine (Pinus flexilis) grows in highly restricted woodland populations on N/NE aspects from 26653222 m in the Wassuk Mtns, NV (fig 1). Deadwood of limber pine occurs mixed with live trees, but also occurs widespread and abundantly on NW, W, SW, S, SE, and E aspects throughout the Wassuk range, where no live trees currently exist (fig 2). Similar conditions exist in neighboring SW Great Basin ranges, and in the E Sierra Nevada. ASPECTS Fig 4 Stand GR RC DC LP CN LG GR NC CC Aspect N/NE SE/E/NE N/NE W/NW/N W/NW W/NW S/SW S/SE NE/E Dead High Live High Dead Low Live Low 3190 3200 3086 3151 3178 3109 3139 3210 2774 3222 3178 2990 no live no live no live no live 3033 2774 2944 2700 2819 3048 2993 3004 2915 2621 2665 2682 2700 2819 no live no live no live no live 2621 2665 QUESTIONS: What are the ages of live and deadwood whitebark pine at upper treeline, when do upright branches (flags) release and how long do they persist, have horizontal branch growth-rates changed over the 20th-century, and, if so, do trends correspond with climate? Fig 2 Fig 3 UPPER TREELINE IN SIERRA NEVADA WHITEBARK PINE IS STABLE FOR MORE THAN 1700 YEARS; CHANGES IN CROWN FORM & GROWTH CORRESPOND TO DECADAL & CENTURY CLIMATE TRENDS The zone of krummholz (stunted) whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in the Sierra Nevada extends 100-500 m above upright tree-form populations to form upper treeline at 3500 m (fig 9). Well-preserved deadwood is scattered among live krummholz patches at upper treeline, but is not found above current live trees, suggesting that treeline may not be sensitive to climate in this species. By contrast, apical branches occasionally release to extend above wind-sheared krummholz crowns and repeat vegetative layering events in krummholz pine suggest that changes in crown structure at treeline may be the primary response to climate variability. Further, repeat photos from the early 1900s compared to recent conditions show increases in patch size of whitebark pine krummholz, suggesting that overall growth may have responded to 20th-century climate. Fig 1 QUESTIONS: What are the ages of deadwood and living populations, and do age, aspect, and/or elevation correlate with known climate phases? RESULTS: The oldest limber pine deadwood we have dated in the Wassuk range is 3585 years old. Abundance of deadwood varies over time, with many slopes and aspects having periods with no wood for 100-300 years. Some of these slopes subsequently regain wood, then lose deadwood representation again (fig 3). Pulses of abundance are aspect-dependent, with increased abundance on N/NE slopes 35003000 ybp, 2400-1700 ybp, 1200-900 ybp, and 600-0 ybp, and decreases or absences during intervening times. On S/SW slopes, by contrast, abundances increase 2600-2100 ybp, 1800-1600 ybp, and 1400-800 ybp. From 800 ybp to present, deadwood or live trees occur on N/NE slopes. A single live stand on S exposure is dying. Upper and lower elevations of deadwood overall in the range do not exceed live populations but vary by aspect and age (fig 4). Periods of deadwood absence correspond to centuries of known paleodrought (fig 5). STUDY 3: Fig 5 Bars indicate treering series of live and deadwood 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Years BP (2000 CE) 3000 3500 4000 Fig 9 RESULTS: Live whitebark pine krummholz pines at upper treeline in the central Sierra Nevada persist more than 1700 years old, which is 3-4 times the typical longevity of upright whitebark pine in lower elevations, and appears to result from the capacity of krummholz pine to vegetatively layer (branch rooting events) episodically. Deadwood scattered within live treeline whitebark krummholz populations in Yosemite National Park date to more than 1700 years ago (fig 10). No deadwood was found above current treeline, however, in these locations, indicating that treeline has been stable through climate variability of the last 2000 years. Ages of upright branches (flags) cluster in the multi-decadal period of the 20th-century, from 1945 to 1980 (fig 11), which corresponds to a strong negative period of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Relative to early & late 20th-century, temperatures were depressed during this period, precipitation was lower, and interannual variability was very low (fig 13). Horizontal growth of krummholz whitebark pine in these locations more than doubled over the 20th-century (fig 12), and corresponded to trends in warming climates during the past century (fig 13). Bars indicate tree-ring series of deadwood Fig 10 YEAR CE Six Sites Five Sites mean, SD mean, SD Drought Periods, YBP, identified by proxies other than limber pine: 600-800: Stine, Walker, Pyramid, Mono, Owens, Tree Rings, Springs, Pinyon 1300-1400: Walker, Pyramid, Pinyon 1400-2100: Pyramid, Springs, Pinyon 2100-2700: Walker 2800-2900: Pyramid Fig 13 n = 126 n =799 Fig 11 STUDY 2: COMPLEX CHANGES IN FOREST COMPOSITION ON WHITEWING MTN, E SIERRA NEVADA, CA, DURING PAST FOLLOW CENTENNIAL CLIMATE PHASES Well-preserved downed deadwood logs litter otherwise barren slopes above local upper treeline at 2990-3051 m on Whitewing Mtn, E Sierra Nevada (fig 6). Only a few scattered live krummholz (stunted) individuals of whitebark pine currently grow among rock outcrops near the summit. Forests at lower elevation in the region include western white pine, lodgepole pine, Jeffrey pine, and mountain hemlock. 1100 YEARS STUDY 4: 20th-CENTURY INVASIONS BY PINES INTO SUBALPINE MEADOWS & FORMER SNOWFIELD OPENINGS CORRELATE WITH PHASES OF THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION & 20th-CENTURY WARMING In the Sierra Nevada subalpine meadows and barren areas formerly covered by persistent snowfields are converting to forests of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), western white pine (P. monticola), and lodgepole pine (P. contorta) (fig 14, 15). Fig 6 QUESTIONS: What is the species composition represented by the deadwood forest, when did the trees grow on Whitewing Mtn, and does the timing of population occurrence correlate with climate? QUESTIONS: What are ages of pines invading meadows and former snowfield openings, is colonization progressive or episodic, and does time of invasion correlate with climate and/or recent human land uses? RESULTS: Anatomical analyses of deadwood indicate that five species of pine and one species of hemlock are represented by deadwood on Whitewing Mtn (fig 7). Of these, only whitebark pine is native and local at the Whitewing summit elevation currently; four of the other species are native to the eastern Sierra Nevada but have current upper limits ranging from 250 to 500 m below Whitewing Mtn summit. The final deadwood species, sugar pine, is not currently native to the eastern Sierra Nevada, but occurs at this latitude west of the Sierra range crest, where it grows in mid-elevation mixed-conifer forests with an upper elevation limit 600 m below Whitewing Mtn. Tree-ring dating of deadwood indicates that the Whitewing summit forest and adjacent San Joaquin Ridge grew from 900-1350 CE (fig 8). There is no evidence of trees on Whitewing Mtn prior to 900 CE nor from 1350-1740 CE. The occasional live stunted whitebark pines now growing near the summit date from 1740 CE to present. At the time of the summit forests, growing conditions were favorable, with annual growth exceeding 2 ring/cm, long, straight stems (mean = 4.1 m) and large diameters (mean = 26.9 cm). The mixed conifer forest corresponds to the warm, winter-wet Medieval Climate Anomaly; the period of no trees corresponds to the Little Ice Age; and the period of krummholz whitebark pine corresponds to warming, wetter climates of the 20th century. (SEE POSTER U53A #708) RESULTS: Of the meadows we studied (elev 2315 – 3050 m), pines invaded episodically between 1945-1976 with a small pulse also in the late 1990s (fig 16). There was no trend to age of invasion within these periods, nor was there a relationship between distance to forest edge and meadow location of invading pine. Of snowfield openings studied (elev 2730-3105 m), pines invaded in two major 20th-century pulses, between 1935-1945 and 1990-2000 (fig 17). Invasion dates in both situations were not significantly correlated with history of livestock grazing or fire, or with elevation, but correlated significantly in direct and interaction effects with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices, minimum temperature, and interannual variability in moisture (fig 18). Invasion responses to different phases of PDO reflect the slope, aspect, and hydrology differences of snowfield versus meadow locations & topography. Bars indicate tree-ring series of live and deadwood on Whitewing Mtn and San Joaquin Ridge, E Sierra Nevada, CA N (deadwood) = 57; N (live whitebark pine krummholz) = 27 Fig 12 Fig 14 Fig 15 Whitewing Mtn REFERENCES: King, J. C. and Graumlich, L. J., 1998: Stem-layering and genet longevity in whitebark pine. A final report on cooperative research with the National Park Service (CA 8000-2-9001). LaMarche, V. 1974. Paleoclimatic inferences from long tree-ring records. Science 183: 1043-1048. Lloyd, A. H. and Graumlich, L. J., 1997: Holocene dynamics of treeline forests in the Sierra Nevada. Ecology, 78: 1199-1210. Millar, C.I., R.D. Westfall, D.L. Delany, J.C. King, and L.C. Graumlich. 2004. Response of subalpine conifers in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., to 20th-century warming and decadal climate variability. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 36 (2): 181-200. Rogers, D. L., Millar, C. I. and Westfall, R. D., 1999: Fine-scale genetic structure of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis): associations with watershed and growth form. Evolution, 53(1): 74-90. Westfall, R.D. and C.I. Millar. 2004. Genetic consequences of forest population dynamics influenced by historic climate variability in the western USA. Forest Ecology and Management 197: 157-168. N 20 Species ID Whitebark Pine 20 9 7 4 3 Fig 7 W White Pine Lodgepole Pine Jeffrey Pine Mountain Hemlock Sugar Pine Ten Meadows _____ Current Upper Treeline Elev Pinus albicaulis krummholz, 3200 m (straight stem) P. monticola 2600 m P. contorta 2700 m P. jeffreyi 2550 m Tsuga mertensiana 2800 m P. lambertiana W Sierra Nevada, 2450 m Six Snowfields (1959, 21.6) mean, SD mean, SD San Joaquin n = 897 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 n = 608 1800 2000 Fig 8 YEAR CE Fig 16 Fig 17 Fig 18 Contour intervals are in units of ecological response. Main axis units are SD’s from mean of the variable. Scatter of dots is the set of recorded points from 90-yr weather record, large dots indicate positive PDO and small dots negative PDO CONCLUSIONS Considering the four studies individually and collectively, we found that episodic, threshold, and reversible changes in subalpine ecosystems are more common responses to climate variability than simple linear or gradual changes. Further, type conversions (meadow & other open areas converting to forest) and complex changes in population abundance, population aspect, forest species composition, and species-specific elevation shifts are equally if not more important than simple shifts in elevation of upper treeline elevation.