Farm News
05-19-06
Taylor: Drought still a possibility
By RANDY MUDGETT- Managing Editor
AMES — Despite the fact most of the Corn Belt’s soils have ample moisture now,
Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University Extension climatologist, is not
convinced the 2006 crop will result in bin-busting yields come this fall.
‘‘Most areas have 90 to 95 percent of their moisture replenished now,’’ Taylor
said Monday, ‘‘but, we still have 50/50 odds we could have below trend line
yields, especially if La Nina arrives.’’
A La Nina pattern is characterized as a weather pattern that creates cold ocean
temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which, in turn, brings with it
warmer than normal conditions to the Corn Belt’s growing months. A La Nina
event caused the weather pattern in 1988, the last major drought in the Midwest.
Taylor said according to oceanic temperatures now, the pattern is ‘‘risky’’ which
could generate a drought pattern for the summer months. ‘‘For the next three
weeks, the weather service is saying conditions will be dry in the Corn Belt,’’
Taylor said. ‘‘June is our most important month.’’
Currently, the U.S. Drought Monitor, provided by the National Drought Mitigation
Center, reported in its May 9 release that the southern half of Iowa is abnormally
dry with the closest drought conditions now in the northeast portion of Missouri.
These areas are still recovering from dry conditions last year.