In June 1992, representatives from 172 countries gathered at the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro to discuss environmental issues. The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was adopted to achieve “. . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” The nonbinding goal of the Convention was “to return emissions of greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the end of the decade.”
The United States responded to the FCCC in 1993 with the “Climate Change Action Plan,” a collection of about
40 individual programs covering emissions reductions, energy efficiency, and productivity enhancements including forestry activities.
At the first Conference of the Parties to the FCCC in
1995, it was concluded that voluntary commitments were inadequate and would not be met by most developed countries. Negotiators then agreed to the need for specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions beyond the year 2000.
The U.S. position on mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations was clearly stated at the second Conference of the Parties in 1996. Three elements were seen as necessary for ratification of a treaty: 1) realistic and binding targets;
2) flexibility in implementation; and 3) the participation of developing countries.
The third Conference of the Parties, held in Kyoto,
Japan, in December 1997, produced an agreement known as the “Kyoto Protocol” that contained the first two elements: 1) binding targets, and 2) flexible implementation.
The U.S. President promised to negotiate an amendment to the agreement covering the participation of developing countries prior to submitting the agreement to the Senate for ratification. Under the terms of the agreement, the
United States is bound to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. This is a substantial reduction given that emissions are expected to rise substantially during this period due to population growth and economic expansion. Various countries and groups of countries have different reduction targets (and increases in some cases).
The role of forestry and land use change has been controversial throughout the international negotiation process. There are different opinions around the globe on whether forestry activities should be counted or not. A country’s position depends on factors such as whether their forests are currently or prospectively a net source or sink for carbon dioxide (CO
2
), whether carbon (C) stock changes in forests can be measured and verified, and the relative emphasis that should be placed on reducing emissions versus increasing sequestration. Some countries expressed concern that forest responses to “natural” factors such as increased atmospheric CO
2
(which may increase growth) would allow a country to claim credit for greenhouse gas reductions that are not associated with specific activities.
The Kyoto Protocol attempted to reconcile the diversity of viewpoints on land use change and forestry. According to article 3.3 of the Protocol, land-use change and forestry activities that can be counted toward the emissions reduction target include afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation since 1990 if the changes in stocks can be verified.
According to most interpretations of the Kyoto Protocol, forest management activities alone are not sufficient to allow an area of forest to count toward the emissions reduction target. Article 3.4 provides an opportunity for nations to propose including additional activities such as forest management. The agreement does include sustainable forest management as part of a general statement supporting sustainable development and protection and enhancement of sinks.
The language, terminology, and accounting methods contained in the agreement are somewhat vague, and can be interpreted in different ways. Definitions of key terms such as “reforestation” are not stated, which becomes a problem for implementation because there are many different definitions in use throughout the world. The proposed accounting system is vague. For example, it is not clear whether harvested timber should be counted as a forest sink and if so, under which circumstances it could be counted.
To address these issues, the FCCC asked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to establish an expert panel to develop a special report on the land
112 USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.

In June 1992, representatives from 172 countries gathered at the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro to discuss environmental issues. The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was adopted to achieve “. . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” The nonbinding goal of the Convention was “to return emissions of greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the end of the decade.”
The United States responded to the FCCC in 1993 with the “Climate Change Action Plan,” a collection of about
40 individual programs covering emissions reductions, energy efficiency, and productivity enhancements including forestry activities.
At the first Conference of the Parties to the FCCC in
1995, it was concluded that voluntary commitments were inadequate and would not be met by most developed countries. Negotiators then agreed to the need for specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions beyond the year 2000.
The U.S. position on mitigation of greenhouse gas concentrations was clearly stated at the second Conference of the Parties in 1996. Three elements were seen as necessary for ratification of a treaty: 1) realistic and binding targets;
2) flexibility in implementation; and 3) the participation of developing countries.
The third Conference of the Parties, held in Kyoto,
Japan, in December 1997, produced an agreement known as the “Kyoto Protocol” that contained the first two elements: 1) binding targets, and 2) flexible implementation.
The U.S. President promised to negotiate an amendment to the agreement covering the participation of developing countries prior to submitting the agreement to the Senate for ratification. Under the terms of the agreement, the
United States is bound to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. This is a substantial reduction given that emissions are expected to rise substantially during this period due to population growth and economic expansion. Various countries and groups of countries have different reduction targets (and increases in some cases).
The role of forestry and land use change has been controversial throughout the international negotiation process. There are different opinions around the globe on whether forestry activities should be counted or not. A country’s position depends on factors such as whether their forests are currently or prospectively a net source or sink for carbon dioxide (CO
2
), whether carbon (C) stock changes in forests can be measured and verified, and the relative emphasis that should be placed on reducing emissions versus increasing sequestration. Some countries expressed concern that forest responses to “natural” factors such as increased atmospheric CO
2
(which may increase growth) would allow a country to claim credit for greenhouse gas reductions that are not associated with specific activities.
The Kyoto Protocol attempted to reconcile the diversity of viewpoints on land use change and forestry. According to article 3.3 of the Protocol, land-use change and forestry activities that can be counted toward the emissions reduction target include afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation since 1990 if the changes in stocks can be verified.
According to most interpretations of the Kyoto Protocol, forest management activities alone are not sufficient to allow an area of forest to count toward the emissions reduction target. Article 3.4 provides an opportunity for nations to propose including additional activities such as forest management. The agreement does include sustainable forest management as part of a general statement supporting sustainable development and protection and enhancement of sinks.
The language, terminology, and accounting methods contained in the agreement are somewhat vague, and can be interpreted in different ways. Definitions of key terms such as “reforestation” are not stated, which becomes a problem for implementation because there are many different definitions in use throughout the world. The proposed accounting system is vague. For example, it is not clear whether harvested timber should be counted as a forest sink and if so, under which circumstances it could be counted.
To address these issues, the FCCC asked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to establish an expert panel to develop a special report on the land
112 USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
Mitigation Activities in the Forest Sector Birdsey, Alig, and Adams use change and forestry provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. That group reviewed definitions, accounting issues, and activities that could potentially be included within the terms of the Protocol, and documented the various options for eventual reconciliation during the ongoing
Conferences of Parties.
This chapter addresses options in the United States forestry sector to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to increase the rate of carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. We summarize the various options that have been proposed in the literature, review the methodologies used to analyze options and compute baseline estimates, evaluate the potential for implementing various options and the expected changes in emissions or sequestration, and review costs and other considerations in implementing mitigation policies.
Numerous forestry options to mitigate atmospheric buildup of CO
2
have been proposed. These options are categorized below according to whether their primary or direct effect is on emissions reduction, sink enhancement, or a combination of emissions reduction and sink enhancement. Each of the options has indirect effects so that the three categories are not mutually exclusive. For example, forest management activities not only affect C storage in forest ecosystems, but affect the kind of products that may be produced from harvested wood, which in turn impacts energy use in two ways: 1) burning of byproducts to substitute for fossil fuel, and 2) substitution of wood products for similar products that use different amounts of energy in the production process (Marland et al. 1997).
Reducing emissions is the most direct way to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Activities involving trees and forests may also achieve emission reductions indirectly, for example, by substituting one product for another, or by reducing demand for energy.
In this section we identify the various forestry options for reducing emissions and the logic behind their potential inclusion as part of a comprehensive accounting for greenhouse gas sources and sinks.
Some wood products used in construction can be manufactured with less energy than non-wood substitutes such as aluminum and concrete (Skog et al. 1996). To the extent that such substitution is practical and economic, an increase in these wood products and a corresponding decrease in their substitutes reduces energy demand and associated emissions. The effectiveness of product substitution is based on a number of factors such as relative costs of inputs and elasticity of demand.
Energy is used in establishing plantations, managing forests, harvesting timber, and manufacturing wood products.
Efficiency of energy use can be increased through engineering at each step in the manufacturing process. Adoption of more energy-efficient practices depends on economic evaluation (U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment 1991).
Protecting forests from wildfire maintains standing biomass or allows biomass to increase. In some cases, particularly in the Western United States, fire protection has resulted in overstocked stands and large amounts of biomass in dead and dying trees, posing a substantial risk of catastrophic wildfire or other natural disturbance such as an insect or disease outbreak (Sampson and Clark 1996).
Both the long- and short-term consequences of fire protection must be considered in evaluating this option.
Sink enhancement technologies are designed to offset emissions by storing more C in forest ecosystems and wood products. Because much of the forest area in the
United States is managed for timber products on recurring cycles of harvest, regeneration, and growth, there are opportunities to increase the average amount of standing biomass while still producing wood products. The harvested C that ends up in wood products and landfills is usually counted as an addition to the total amount of
C sequestered. During the manufacturing process, wood waste that is burned for energy is sometimes counted to the extent that wood fuel is substituted for fossil fuel.
Conversion of cropland and pasture to forest, either by tree planting or natural afforestation, usually increases
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000. 113

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INCREASINGTHEUSEOFBIOMASSFORFUELDOESNOTNECESSARILY
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3KOGAND.ICHOLSONTHISVOLUME53#ONGRESS/FlCEOF
4ECHNOLOGY!SSESSMENT
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&INALLYTHEINTERACTIONSAMONGVARIOUSACTIVITIESSHOULD
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&/2#!2"AND&OREST3ECTOR-ODELS
4HE &/2#!2" MODEL HAS SEVERAL PURPOSES TO ESTI
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FORESTS AND FOREST PRODUCTS AS # SINKS AND TO ESTIMATE
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ETAL(EATHETAL &/2#!2"ISONEOFACLUSTER
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!FFORESTATION
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&!3/-
2EFORESTATION
4!!
&!3/-
$EFORESTATION
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&!3/-
4OTALPRIVATETIMBERLAND
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3OURCE4HE PROJECTIONS ARE FROM BASELINE RUNS OF TWO MODELSTHE4!--!4,!3!2%! #(!.'% SET IS FROM THE 20! !SSESSMENT 5PDATE
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STRATEGIES!DAMSAND(AYNES*OYCEETAL 4HIS
INTEGRATEDMODELINGSYSTEMISUSEDTOSIMULATETHEEFFECTS
OFENVIRONMENTALCHANGESONPRODUCTIVITYFORESTTYPETRAN
SITIONS HARVESTING NATURAL DISTURBANCE TIMBER PRODUC
TION AND # STORAGE 4HE SYSTEM INCLUDES SOCIOECONOMIC
MODELS USED TO CONDUCT NATIONAL ASSESSMENTS REQUIRED
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MODELSPROVIDEESTIMATESANDPROJECTIONSOFHUMANACTIVI
TIESSUCHASLANDUSECHANGEANDTIMBERHARVESTTHATHAVE
MAJORIMPACTSONTHESTATUSOFFORESTVEGETATION
4HE &/2#!2" MODEL HAS THE STRENGTH OF NATIONAL
SCALE MULTISECTORAL ANALYSIS WITH SUFlCIENT REPRESENTA
TIONOFECOSYSTEMSREGIONSOWNERSHIPSANDMANAGEMENT
INTENSITIES TO ENABLE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF OPTIONS WITHIN
A NATIONAL POLICY CONTEXT!LIMITATION IS LACK OF LINKAGE
WITHTHEENERGYSECTORSOTHATENERGYINPUTSANDOUTPUTS
CANNOT BE DIRECTLY CONSIDERED 4HE TEMPORAL DOMAIN IS
LIMITEDBYTHECURRENTMODELCONlGURATIONTHATSIMULATES
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7HEN EXAMINING MITIGATION STRATEGIES INVOLVING FOR
ESTRY INCREASING THE AREA OF FORESTS AND ENHANCING THE
PRODUCTIVITY OF EXISTING FORESTS ARE TYPICAL OPTIONS TO
INCREASE SEQUESTRATION OF # IN FORESTS AND FOREST PROD
UCTS -ANY PAST STUDIES HAVE EXAMINED POLICY IMPACTS
OF CHANGING LAND USE BETWEEN FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE
4HESE STUDIES TYPICALLY HAVE EITHER IGNORED SPILL
OVERSBETWEENSECTORSOR SIMPLYhADDEDUPvIMPACTS
ACROSS THE TWO SECTORS IGNORING FEEDBACKS OR INTERAC
TIONS THROUGH THE MARKETS FOR LAND 4O EXAMINE FOREST
# SEQUESTRATION POLICIES WHILE CONSIDERING INTERSECTORAL
COMPETITION FOR LAND &!3/- HAS BOTH LAND USE AND
FORESTMANAGEMENTINVESTMENTASENDOGENOUSDECISIONS
!LIGETAL
&!3/- LACKS LINKAGE WITH THE ENERGY SECTOR SO THAT
ENERGYINPUTSANDOUTPUTSCANNOTBEDIRECTLYCONSIDERED
4HETEMPORALDOMAINISLIMITEDBYCOMPUTERRESOURCES
AVAILABLEDATAANDASSUMPTIONSANDPOLICYINTEREST
&!3/--ODEL
4HE&ORESTAND!GRICULTURAL3ECTOR/PTIMIZATION-ODEL
&!3/- DESCRIBEDBY-ILLSETALTHISVOLUME HASBEEN
APPLIED TO EXAMINE THE PRIVATE FOREST MANAGEMENT LAND
USEANDMARKETIMPLICATIONSOFTERRESTRIAL#SEQUESTRATION
POLICIES !DAMS ET AL A 4HE &!3/- MODEL USES
THESAMEEMPIRICALLYBASEDTIMBERYIELDSFROMTHE!4,!3
MODEL AS DOES 4!-- AND OTHER FOREST SECTOR MODELS TO
WHICH&/2#!2"ISLINKED7HILETHEMODELSARESIMILARIN
OTHERREGARDSONEKEYDIFFERENCEWHENEXAMININGPOLICY
OPTIONS IS THAT THE &!3/- MODEL CAN ESTIMATE OPTIMAL
LANDUSEANDFORESTMANAGEMENTINVESTMENTINTHECONTEXT
OFMITIGATIONSTRATEGIES4HISCOMPLEMENTSTHEPOSITIVISTIC
APPROACHOFTHE4!--SYSTEMOFMODELS!COMPARISONOF
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ANDTHE4!--SYSTEMISPRESENTEDINTABLE
%XAMPLESOF3PECIAL3TUDIES
!MERICAN &ORESTS A NONPROlT INSTITUTION ORGANIZED
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ANDMITIGATIONOPTIONSINCREASINGTHEAREAANDGROWTHOF
FORESTS3AMPSONAND(AIR ANDFORESTMANAGEMENT
OPPORTUNITIES 3AMPSON AND (AIR 4HESE STUDIES
BROUGHTTOGETHEREXPERTSINMANYDISCIPLINESTOEVALUATE
OPTIONSANDPROVIDEGUIDANCETOPUBLICANDPRIVATELAND
OWNERS FOR IMPLEMENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MITIGATION
THROUGHFORESTRYACTIVITIES
4HE53%NVIRONMENTAL0ROTECTION!GENCYHASSPON
SOREDASERIESOFSTUDIESTHATCOMPAREDDIFFERENTMODELS
OFMITIGATIONOPTIONSFOR53FORESTANDAGRICULTURALLAND
EG53%NVIRONMENTAL0ROTECTION!GENCYA
4HESE STUDIES ADDRESSED SCENARIOS OF TREE PLANTING ON
MARGINAL CROP AND PASTURE LAND CONSERVATION RESERVE
ANDWETLANDSRESERVEPROGRAMSINCREASEDUSEOFRECYCLED
PAPERREDUCEDHARVESTON.ATIONAL&ORESTLANDINCREASED
USEOFBIOMASSENERGYMODIlEDAGRICULTURALTILLAGEPRAC
TICESANDINCREASEDUSEOFWINTERCOVERCROPS
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-ITIGATION!CTIVITIESINTHE&OREST3ECTOR
4HE 53 #ONGRESS /FlCE OF 4ECHNOLOGY !SSESSMENT
EXAMINEDASUITEOFTECHNICALANDPOLICYMEASURES
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SIONSOF#/ COULDBEREDUCEDTOASMUCHASPERCENT
BELOW LEVELS &ORESTRY ACTIVITIES COMPRISED PER
CENTOFTHEREDUCTIONSANDINCLUDEDTREEPLANTINGINCREAS
ING PRODUCTIVITY URBAN FORESTRY AND USE OF TREES FOR
BIOMASSENERGY
4HE 7ORLD 2ESOURCES )NSTITUTE STUDIED 53 FORESTRY
STRATEGIESTOSLOWGLOBALWARMING4REXLER !MIXOF
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STUDYWASRECOMMENDED
30
20
10
50
40
Average annual increase =
281 Tg C/yr
Average annual increase =
183 Tg C/yr
0
1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 1992 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
&IGURE ˆ 0AST AND PROSPECTIVE # STORAGE FOR FORESTS IN THE
CONTERMINOUS53FROM"IRDSEYAND(EATH
4HE hBASELINEv CARBON BUDGET REFERS TO LONGTERM
TRENDSINFORESTCARBONSTORAGEUSINGECONOMICASSUMP
TIONS FROM THE 20! !SSESSMENT (AYNES ET AL
IN THE ABSENCE OF MAJOR FORESTRY POLICY CHANGES OR
CHANGESINFORESTPRODUCTIVITYORSPECIESDISTRIBUTIONSAS
A CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ,ONGTERM HISTORICAL
TIMBERVOLUMEDATACONVERTEDTO#ESTIMATESSHOWTHAT
INCREASESINBIOMASSANDORGANICMATTERON53FOREST
LANDS FROM TO ADDED 4G #YR OF STORED
# TO FOREST ECOSYSTEMS ENOUGH TO OFFSET PERCENT OF
53EMISSIONSFORTHEPERIOD"IRDSEYAND(EATH
"ASELINE PROJECTIONS USING &/2#!2" SHOW ADDITIONAL
INCREASES OF APPROXIMATELY 4G # PER YEAR IN FOREST
ECOSYSTEMS THROUGH lG 4HE PROJECTED BASE
LINEINCLUDESFORESTPOLICIESINEFFECTATTHETIMETHEPRO
JECTIONSWEREMADEINPARTICULARREDUCEDHARVESTLEVELS
ON.ATIONAL&ORESTLANDSDECREASESINCLEARCUTTINGAND
INCREASES IN PARTIAL CUTTING PRACTICES AND CONTINUATION
OFFEDERALCOSTSHAREPROGRAMSATRECENTHISTORICALLEVELS
3INCE THAT TIME FUNDING FOR COSTSHARE PROGRAMS WAS
DECREASED
4HECOMPREHENSIVEBASELINEESTIMATESAREUSEDASTHE
FORESTRY COMPONENT OF THE h)NVENTORY OF 'REENHOUSE
'ASES AND 3INKSv COMPILED ANNUALLY BY THE 53 %NVI
RONMENTAL0ROTECTION!GENCYB 4HE%0!INVENTORY
INCLUDESFOREST#INLIVINGBIOMASSWOODPRODUCTSAND
LANDlLLS AND FOCUSES ON ANNUAL ESTIMATES BEGINNING IN
4HETHREEFORESTCOMPONENTSCOMPRISEANESTIMATED
ANNUALSINKOF4G#FOREACHOFTHEYEARSFROM
THROUGH)F#INTHEFORESTmOORCOARSEWOODYDEBRIS
AND SOILS WERE ADDED THE AVERAGE ANNUAL ESTIMATE FOR n WOULD BE DOUBLED TO APPROXIMATELY 4G
# 4HESE ESTIMATES DO NOT INCLUDE CHANGES IN !LASKA
(AWAII0UERTO2ICOOR534ERRITORIES
!NEARLIERSTUDYCONVERTEDFORESTAREAANDVOLUME
STATISTICS TO CARBON IN STANDING BIOMASS USING SIMPLE
MODELS "IRDSEY A CONCLUDED THAT 53 FOREST TREES
WERE ACCUMULATING # AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 4G #
THATREMOVALSFROMTIMBERHARVESTINGANDLANDCLEARING
TOTALED 4G # AND THAT THE ANNUAL NET GAIN OF # IN
LIVEANDSTANDINGDEADTREESTOTALED4G4URNERETAL
USEDASIMILARAPPROACHBUTMODELEDSOMEECOSYS
TEMCOMPONENTSDIFFERENTLYPARTICULARLYWOODYDETRITUS
4HEYESTIMATEDANANNUALACCUMULATIONOF#INFORESTBIO
MASSOF4G#REMOVALSOF4G#ANDANETANNUAL
GAINOF4G#
4HERE ARE SIGNIlCANT REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PAST AND
PROJECTED # STORAGE lG 4HESE DIFFERENCES REmECT
VARIATIONINSPECIESCOMPOSITIONANDGROWTHASWELLAS
LONGTERM CHANGES IN LAND USE MANAGEMENT INTENSITY
ANDHARVESTINGPRACTICES-ILLIONSOFACRESOFFORESTSINTHE
.ORTHEASTHAVEREGROWNONABANDONEDAGRICULTURALLAND
CAUSINGASTEEPHISTORICALINCREASEIN#INCLUDINGASUB
STANTIALBUILDUPON#DEPLETEDSOILS!STHESEREGROWING
FORESTSMATURETHERATEOF#BUILDUPISEXPECTEDTOSLOW
SUBSTANTIALLY4HEHISTORICALPATTERNISSIMILARINTHE3OUTH
#ENTRALSTATESBUTTHEMOREINTENSIVEUTILIZATIONOFSOUTH
ERN FORESTS FOR WOOD PRODUCTS HAS ALREADY LEVELED PAST
GAINSIN#ASGROWTHANDREMOVALSHAVECOMECLOSETOBAL
ANCING)NTHE0ACIlC#OASTSTATES#STOCKSAREEXPECTED
TOINCREASEAFTERARECENTDECLINEMAINLYDUETOREDUCED
HARVESTPROJECTIONSASMOREFORESTLANDHASBEENRESERVED
FROMTIMBERPRODUCTION
4HE +YOTO 0ROTOCOL ARTICLE ESTABLISHES A PARTIAL
ACCOUNTINGSYSTEMFORFORESTRYANDLANDUSECHANGE4HE
COMPREHENSIVE FORESTRY BASELINE WOULD BE CHANGED TO
ACCOUNT ONLY FOR FORESTLANDS THAT HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE
AFFECTEDBYREFORESTATIONAFFORESTATIONANDDEFORESTATION
SINCE &ORESTRY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS MANAGEMENT AND
PROTECTION ON LANDS NOT AFFECTED BY ONE OF THESE THREE
ACTIVITIESWOULDNOTBECOUNTEDUNLESSADDEDUNDERARTI
CLE 3INCE THERE IS NOT YET AGREEMENT ON INTERPRETING
THE LANGUAGE DElNITIONS AND ACCOUNTING METHODOLOGY
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n

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OFTHE+YOTO0ROTOCOLITISIMPOSSIBLETOCALCULATEANEW
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SEVERAL WAYS AS ILLUSTRATED IN lGURE HOWEVER THE
EVENTUALBASELINEWILLLIKELYBEDIFFERENTFROMANYOFTHESE
AS THE INTERPRETATION OF THE 0ROTOCOL EVOLVES AND PARTIAL
ACCOUNTINGMETHODSAREIMPLEMENTED
4HEALTERNATIVEBASELINESINlGUREARECOMPAREDTO
THE COMPREHENSIVE BASELINE THAT ACCOUNTS FOR ALL FOREST
LANDSANDALLACTIVITIESASPRESENTEDIN"IRDSEYAND(EATH
4HE lRST ALTERNATIVE ACCOUNTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF
REFORESTATIONAFFORESTATIONANDDEFORESTATIONSINCE
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WOOD HARVESTED PRIOR TO REFORESTATION IS IGNORED 2EFOR
ESTATION IS DElNED BROADLY TO INCLUDE CLEARCUT AND PAR
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MORECOMPLETEACCOUNTINGOFTHETRUEIMPACTOFACTIVITIES
SINCE(ARVESTEDWOODTHATISBURNEDFORENERGYIS
COUNTEDASASOURCEOF#TOTHEATMOSPHEREANDTHEREFORE
DEDUCTEDFROMTHE#SINKESTIMATE4HETHIRDALTERNATIVE
INCLUDESONLYAFFORESTATIONANDDEFORESTATION
8
6
4
2
12
10
Northeast
South Central
Pacific Coast
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
&IGUREˆ 0ASTANDPROSPECTIVE#STORAGEFORSELECTEDREGIONS
4RENDS REmECT LAND USE HISTORY MATURING FORESTS ON REVERTED
AGRICULTURAL LAND IN THE .ORTHEASTINTENSIlED TIMBER UTILIZATION
ON REVERTED AGRICULTURAL LAND IN THE 3OUTHREDUCED HARVESTING
OFOLDGROWTHANDEMERGENCEOFREFORESTEDAREASINTHE0ACIlC
#OASTFROM"IRDSEYAND(EATH
%VALUATIONOF3ELECTED-ITIGATION
/PTIONS
0
" True" baseline
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
)NTHISSECTIONWEEVALUATESEVERALMITIGATIONOPTIONS
DElNEDEARLIERASEITHERSINKENHANCEMENTORCOMBINED
SINK ENHANCEMENT AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION 7E DO NOT
EVALUATE OPTIONS THAT ARE PRIMARILY INTENDED TO REDUCE
EMISSIONS
!FTERAFOREST#BASELINEISESTABLISHEDTHEINCREMEN
TALEFFECTOFMITIGATIONOPTIONSCANBEEVALUATEDRELATIVE
TO THE BASELINE 4HE ACCOUNTING SYSTEM SHOULD INCLUDE
THE EFFECT OF THE ACTIVITY ON ALL # POOLS EVEN IF OUTSIDE
THEFORESTSECTOR&OREXAMPLE#CHANGESASSOCIATEDWITH
DEFORESTATIONSHOULDACCOUNTFOR#RETAINEDINSOILSAND
BIOMASSOFTHENEWLANDUSE4HESTUDIESREVIEWEDHERE
HAVE NOT ALL USED CONSISTENT ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC
ASSUMPTIONSAND#ACCOUNTINGMETHODSANDNOATTEMPT
HASBEENMADETOADJUSTREPORTEDESTIMATESTOACOMMON
BASIS .EVERTHELESS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME ELEMENTS OF A
53PROGRAMTOENHANCEFOREST#SINKSAREIDENTIlEDAND
THEIRAPPROXIMATECOSTSESTABLISHED
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
&IGURE ˆ )LLUSTRATIVE SIMULATION OF SEVERAL FOREST BASELINES
FROMDIFFERENTINTERPRETATIONSOFTHE+YOTO0ROTOCOLARECOMPARED
TOTHEhTRUEvBASELINETHATACCOUNTSFORALLFORESTLANDSANDALLACTIV
ITIES4HElRSTALTERNATIVEACCOUNTSFORTHEEFFECTSOFREFORESTATION
DElNED AS BROADLY AS POSSIBLE AFFORESTATION AND DEFORESTA
TION SINCE WITH THE IMPORTANT EXCEPTION THAT THE DISPOSI
TIONOF#INWOODHARVESTEDPRIORTOREFORESTATIONISIGNORED4HE
SECONDALTERNATIVEDIFFERSFROMALTERNATIVEBYINCLUDINGTHEDIS
POSITION OF # IN HARVESTED WOOD AND IS THEREFORE A MORE COM
PLETEACCOUNTINGOFTHEEFFECTSOFACTIVITIESSINCE(ARVESTED
WOODTHATISBURNEDFORENERGYISCOUNTEDASASOURCEOF#TOTHE
ATMOSPHERE AND THEREFORE DEDUCTED FROM THE # SINK ESTIMATE
4HE THIRD ALTERNATIVE INCLUDES ONLY AFFORESTATION AND DEFORESTA
TION4HESCALEOFTHE9AXISISINTENTIONALLYOMITTED
!FFOREST-ARGINAL#ROPLANDAND0ASTURE
! LARGE POOL OF NONFORESTLAND IN THE 5NITED 3TATES
COULD BE CONVERTED TO FOREST TO SEQUESTER ADDITIONAL #
-OULTON AND 2ICHARDS .OT ALL OF THE LAND THAT
COULD SUPPORT TREES WOULD BE AVAILABLE AND THE INFRA
STRUCTURE MAY NOT BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE SEEDLINGS FOR
ALLAVAILABLELAND,ARGEAFFORESTATIONPROGRAMSMUSTBE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED NURSERY CAPACITY!DDITIONAL
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE MUST ALSO BE PROVIDED TO DELIVER
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-ITIGATION!CTIVITIESINTHE&OREST3ECTOR
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Years since harvest
Southern pine
Maple-beech-birch
Douglas fir
&IGUREˆ #OMPARISONOF#YIELDSFORSEVERALCOMMONFOREST
TYPES AFTER A CLEARCUT HARVEST SOUTHERN PINE PLANTATION ON A
GOOD SITE IN THE 3OUTHMAPLEBEECHBIRCH FOREST IN THE .ORTH
EAST$OUGLASlRONAGOODSITEINTHE0ACIlC#OASTFROM"IRD
SEY
500
400
300
Wood used for energy
Wood products and landfills
200
100
Forest ecosystem
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
Years after planting
&IGURE ˆ 0ATTERN OF # STORAGE IN A LOBLOLLY PINE PLANTATION
MANAGEDFORWOODPRODUCTSOVERALONGTIMEPERIODINCLUDING#
INWOODPRODUCTSANDLANDlLLSFROM"IRDSEY
PLANTING PROGRAMS EFFECTIVELY TO LANDOWNERS "ASELINE
PROJECTIONSBYFORESTSECTORMODELSALREADYINCLUDESUB
STANTIAL AFFORESTATION AND REFORESTATION AMOUNTS TABLE
SO CAPACITY AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE ISSUES WOULD
NEEDTOBEADDRESSEDIFADDITIONALAFFORESTATIONEFFORTSARE
DIRECTEDSPECIlCALLYATFOREST#SEQUESTRATION
4HEREISATIMELAGBETWEENTREEPLANTINGANDSIGNIl
CANTINCREASESIN#STORAGE3EEDLINGSTAKESEVERALYEARSTO
BECOMEESTABLISHEDANDACCUMULATIONOFBIOMASSISLOW
UNTILTREESREACHSUFlCIENTSIZELEAFAREA TOFULLYUTILIZE
THEhGROWTHPOTENTIALvOFTHESITE!SPLANTEDSTANDSAGE
THEIRGROWTHRISESPEAKSANDTHENDECLINESINAPREDICT
ABLEPATTERN4HEDETAILSOFTHISPATTERNVARYMARKEDLYBY
SPECIESREGIONMANAGEMENTREGIMEANDPOTENTIALCATA
STROPHICEVENTSSUCHASlREINSECTSANDDISEASElG
&ORAONESHOTAFFORESTATIONPROGRAMAGGREGATE#mUXOF
THE PLANTATION WOULD FOLLOW THE PATTERN OF THE SELECTED
SPECIES)FTIMBERSTANDSAREHARVESTEDFORWOODPRODUCTS
ANDREGENERATEDREPEATEDLYOVERALONGPERIODOFTIMEA
SUSTAINABLEPATTERNOFINCREASESANDDECREASESOF#INTHE
FORESTBECOMESAPPARENTlG 4HEREISANACCUMULA
TIONOF#INWOODPRODUCTSANDLANDlLLSOVERTIMEASLONG
ASINPUTSTOTHESEPOOLSEXCEEDLOSSESTHROUGHDECOMPO
SITION)FWOODUSEDFORENERGYISALSOCOUNTEDTHEREISA
FURTHER GAIN DUE TO THE SUBSTITUTION OF WOOD ENERGY FOR
FOSSILFUELENERGY&IGUREILLUSTRATESTHEEFFECTOFAONE
TOONESUBSTITUTIONOFWOODENERGYFORFOSSILFUELENERGY
ANUPPERBOUNDUNLIKELYTOBEACHIEVEDWHENCONVERSION
EFlCIENCYANDMARKETEFFECTSARECONSIDERED
-ANYSTUDIESHAVEESTIMATEDPOTENTIALGAINSIN#STOR
AGEFROMAFFORESTATION-OULTONAND2ICHARDS ESTI
MATEDTHATOFFSETTING53EMISSIONSBYPERCENTABOUT
4G# WOULDREQUIREABOUTMILLIONACRESATANAVER
AGE COST OF TON OF # OR BILLIONYEAR 4HE 53
#ONGRESS /FlCE OF 4ECHNOLOGY !SSESSMENT ESTI
MATEDTHATATREEPLANTINGPROGRAMONMILLIONACRES
YEAROVERYEARSWOULDATTAINANET#mUXINCREASEOF
4G#YEARBYTHEENDOFTHEYEARPERIOD4HEANNU
ALIZED COST OF THIS PROGRAM WOULD BE ABOUT TON #
5SING ESTIMATES OF # STORAGE BY AGE CLASS FOR DIFFERENT
FOREST TYPES AND CONDITIONS "IRDSEY B ESTIMATED
THATCONVERTINGMILLIONACRESOFMARGINALCROPLANDAND
PASTUREINTHE3OUTHTOFORESTWOULDEVENTUALLYINCREASE
#ACCUMULATIONBYABOUT4G#YEAR0ARKSAND(ARDIE
ESTIMATEDTHATCONVERTINGMILLIONACRESOFLAND
TOFORESTWOULDINCREASE#ACCUMULATIONBY4G#YEAR
ANDCOSTTON#
4HESE STUDIES DID NOT INCLUDE EFFECTS OF INCREASED
SUPPLY OF TIMBER ON THE FOREST SECTOR WHICH MAY PAR
TIALLY OFFSET # GAINS BY REDUCING PRICES AND INCREASING
QUANTITYDEMANDED0ARKSAND(ARDIE USED&/2
#!2" AND FOREST SECTOR MODELS TO DEVELOP TWO REFORES
TATION SCENARIOS AND COMPARED THE RESULTS WITH A BASE
RUN(EATHAND"IRDSEY53%NVIRONMENTAL0ROTEC
TION!GENCYA 0LANTINGWASPHASEDOVERAYEAR
PERIODFROMnANDPROJECTIONSRUNTHROUGH
-OST PLANTING WAS EXPECTED IN THE 3OUTH #ENTRAL AND
.ORTH#ENTRAL5NITED3TATES4HEAVERAGEANNUALINCREASE
IN # mUX INCLUDING # IN WOOD PRODUCTS AND LANDlLLS
OVER A YEAR PERIOD WAS PROJECTED TO BE 4G # FOR
A MILLION ACRESYEAR PROGRAM COSTING MILLION
YEARAND4G#FORAMILLIONACRESYEARPROGRAM
COSTINGMILLIONYEAR4HESEARETHEDIRECTCOSTSASSO
CIATEDWITHTREEPLANTINGANDPAYMENTOFSUBSIDIES
0ROJECTIONSUSING&!3/-SHOWTHATAMILLIONACRE
PROGRAM AMONG OTHER SECTOR ADJUSTMENTS COSTING AN
AVERAGE PER TON # COULD PRODUCE AN ANNUAL mUX
INCREASE OF 4G # #OSTS IN THIS CASE ARE ESTIMATED AS
CHANGES IN SOCIAL WELFARE &!3/- PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THATEFFORTSTOEXPANDFOREST#mUXSHOULDHAVEARATHER
DIFFERENTGEOGRAPHICANDSPECIESFOCUSTHANTHATPROPOSED
INPASTSTUDIES)NCONTRASTTOBOTH-OULTONAND2ICHARDS
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&ORSOME#POLICYSCENARIOS&!3/-SIMULATIONSINDI
CATETHATTHEBULKOFTHEPROJECTEDAFFORESTATIONANDMAN
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,AKE3TATESREGION4HISISANAREAOFLARGECONCENTRATIONS
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YIELD TABLES REDUCING THE DEPLETION OF NONINDUSTRIAL
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BE CONSIDERED IN MITIGATION POLICY FORMULATION 4HESE
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