#(!04%2
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
*OHN2-ILLS2ALPH!LIGAND2ICHARD7(AYNES53$!&OREST3ERVICE
0ACIlC.ORTHWEST2ESEARCH3TATION
$ARIUS-!DAMS/REGON3TATE5NIVERSITY
)NTRODUCTION
4HE FOREST SECTOR HAS HAD A RELATIVELY LONG HISTORY OF
APPLYINGSECTORIALMODELSTOESTIMATETHEEFFECTSOFATMO
SPHERIC ISSUES SUCH AS ACID RAIN SEE (AYNES AND!DAMS
(AYNESAND+AISERCLIMATECHANGE#ALLAWAY
ETAL*OYCEETAL-ILLSAND(AYNES!LIGET
AL0EREZ'ARCIAETAL3OHNGENAND-ENDELSOHN
AND THE FORESTRY IMPACTS OF REDUCED ATMOSPHERIC
OZONE "ENTLY AND (ORST 4HE MODELS OF THE FOREST
SECTORVARYINSCOPEANDCOMPLEXITYBUTSHAREANUMBEROF
COMMONFEATURESANDDATABASES4HREEASPECTSINCOMMON
AMONGTHEMSTANDOUT&IRSTTHESPATIALEQUILIBRIUMMARKET
FRAMEWORKlRSTUSEDBY(AYNESANDEXPANDEDBY
!DAMS AND (AYNES HAS PROVIDED A STRUCTURE AND
FRAMEWORKFORMANYOFTHESEEFFORTS3ECONDTHE4!--
!4,!3 MODEL !DAMS AND (AYNES -ILLS AND +IN
CAIDITSELFHASPROVIDEDBOTHRELATIVELYCOMPLETEDATA
SETS AND ESTIMATED RELATIONSHIPS FOR ECONOMIC PROCESSES
THATAREROBUSTANDCANBEAGGREGATEDBOTHINMARKETLEVELS
ANDACROSSSPATIALMARKETS4HETHIRDASPECTISTHERICHAND
UNIQUEFORESTINVENTORYDATASETSTHATAREAVAILABLEFORTHE
5NITED 3TATES 4HIS DATA SET DESIGNED FOR ASSESSING TIM
BERLANDCONDITIONSANDTRENDSPROVIDESANESSENTIALCOM
PONENT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGGREGATE TIMBER RESOURCE
MODELSTHATAREINTEGRALPARTSOFMOSTFORESTSECTORMODELS
)TALLOWSFOREXPLICITTREATMENTSOFCHANGESINNETGROWTH
LANDUSEANDFORESTTYPECHANGES
4HE PURPOSE OF THIS CHAPTER IS TO ASSESS BROADLY OUR
ABILITY TO MODEL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE FOREST
SECTOR USING TWO OF THE THREE FOREST SECTOR MODELS THAT
ARE AVAILABLE IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN THE 4IMBER !SSESS
MENT -ARKET -ODEL 4!--!DAMS AND (AYNES .ORTH !MERICA 0ULP AND 0APER -ODEL .!0!0
)NCE !GGREGATE 4IMBERLAND !SSESSMENT 3YSTEM
!4,!3 -ILLS AND +INCAID AND &OREST AND !GRI
CULTURE3ECTOR/PTIMIZATION-ODEL&!3/-!DAMSETAL
A !LIG ET AL ! THIRD MODEL IS THE #).42!
&/2'LOBAL4RADE-ODEL#'4-)TISTHEAPPLICATIONOF
RESEARCHSTARTEDATTHE)NTERNATIONAL)NSTITUTEOF!PPLIED
!FORESTSECTORMODELINGENERALCOMBINESACTIVITIESRELATED
TOTHEUSEOFWOODFORESTGROWTHANDHARVESTTHEMANUFACTURE
OFPULPPAPERANDSOLIDWOODPRODUCTSANDINTERNATIONALTRADE
ANDINTERMEDIATEANDlNALCONSUMPTIONOFTHESEPRODUCTS+ALLIO
ETAL
(EREAFTERCALLED4!--!4,!3
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
3YSTEMS !NALYSIS ))!3! AND CONTINUING WORK AT THE
5NIVERSITYOF7ASHINGTON+ALLIOETAL#ARDELLICHIO
ET AL )T HAS BEEN USED BY RESEARCHERS AT THE
5NIVERSITYOF7ASHINGTONTOEXAMINEBROADSCALEGLOBAL
CLIMATECHANGEISSUES0EREZ'ARCIAETAL
)NADDITIONTOTHE4!--!4,!3AND&!3/-APPLICA
TIONSTHATWILLBEDISCUSSEDINSUBSEQUENTSECTIONSSOMEOF
THE ALREADY LISTED REFERENCES REPRESENT SUBSTANTIAL EFFORTS
&OR EXAMPLE *OYCE ET AL FOR .ORTH !MERICA AND
0EREZ'ARCIAETALFORTHEWORLDEXAMINEDTHEEFFECTS
OFCLIMATECHANGEONTHEWORLDSFORESTPRODUCTSECONOMY
USINGTHETERRESTRIALECOSYSTEMMODEL-ELILLOETAL
TOLINKECOLOGICALCHANGETOACTUALVEGETATION4HEGENERAL
RESULTSSHOWTHATASPRIMARYPRODUCTIONINCREASESTIMBER
BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT PRICES FALL AND CONSUMPTION
INCREASES-AJORTIMBERPRODUCERSSUCHASTHE5NITED3TATES
AND#ANADARECEIVEDSMALLPOSITIVEECONOMICGAINSFROM
FORESTRYCHANGES4HISWORKALSOINDICATESTHEDIFFERENCES
AMONGTHOSEPARTICULARCLIMATESCENARIOSTENDTOBESMALL
EXCEPTINSOUTHEAST!SIAAND/CEANIAFORHARDWOODSAND
THE NORTHERN REGIONS FOR SOFTWOODS "OTH STUDIES SHOW
THATPRODUCTIONSHIFTSANDCHANGESINTRADEPATTERNSTEND
TO DAMPEN THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE FOREST
SECTOR 3EVERAL STUDIES USED VARIATIONS OF THE 4!--
!4,!3 MODEL STRUCTURE &OR EXAMPLE #ALLAWAY ET AL
SHOWEDTHATUNDERACLIMATEOFDOUBLEDATMOSPHERIC
CARBONDIOXIDEHARVESTSCOULDBESHIFTEDOVERTIMEALONG
WITH CHANGES IN TREE PLANTING INVESTMENT AS PART OF THE
DYNAMICADJUSTMENTOFMARKETSANDCAPITALSTOCKS(AYNES
ETALFOCUSEDONVARIOUSMITIGATIONSTRATEGIESTHATARE
OFTENSUGGESTEDFORUSINGFORESTSFORCARBONSEQUESTRATION
3OHNGEN AND -ENDELSOHNS MODEL USING A SPATIAL
EQUILIBRIUMSTRUCTUREREDUCEDFROMSOMEOFTHERELATION
SHIPS IN 4!--!4,!3 FOCUSED MORE ON THE DYNAMIC
ADJUSTMENTPATHWAYTHANTHESEEARLIERSTUDIES4HEYFOUND
THATMARKETSWILLMITIGATEANDEVENREVERSE#/mUXESIN
CONTRASTTONATURALRESPONSEMODELS&INALLY"URTONETAL
USEDAVARIANTOF&!3/-TOLOOKATTHREESCENARIOS
OFEXTREMEGROWTHRATECHANGEINDUCEDBYGLOBALCLIMATE
CHANGEANDFOUNDTHATIMPACTSAREFELTMORESTRONGLYBY
PRODUCERSTHANCONSUMERSANDMOREBYSOUTHERNPRODUC
ERSTHANPRODUCERSINOTHERREGIONS
3EVERAL UNIQUE GAPS OR OPPORTUNITIES ARE APPARENT
FROM THIS ARRAY OF APPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT APPROACHES
TO FOREST SECTOR MODELING &IRST MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS
DEPENDONFORESTINVENTORYRESOURCEMODELSTOPROVIDE
EXOGENOUSVARIABLESINSTUMPAGESUPPLYRELATIONS4HESE
RESOURCE MODELS ARE INVARIABLY BASED ON ACTUAL OR CUR
RENTFORESTVEGETATIONTYPESANDEXTENTSTHATREmECTEXTEN
-ILLS!LIG(AYNESAND!DAMS
SIVE HUMAN MODIlCATIONS )NTEGRATING ECONOMIC AND
ECOLOGICAL MODELS REQUIRES SOME MEANS TO RELATE ACTUAL
VEGETATION TO THE PROJECTED CHANGES IN POTENTIAL VEGETA
TION THAT RESULT FROM PROCESSBASED ECOLOGICAL MODELS
3EVERALOFTHEAPPLICATIONSABOVEUSEDTHETERRESTRIALECO
SYSTEM MODEL -ELILLIO ET AL AS ONE SUCH LINKING
DEVICE3ECONDMOSTOFTHEMODELSDESCRIBEDABOVEHAVE
NOTADDRESSEDINDETAILTHEREALLOCATIONOFLANDBETWEEN
FORESTANDAGRICULTURALSECTORSIFPRODUCTIVITYISIMPACTED
BY GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ,ANDOWNERS CONTINUALLY CON
SIDER SHIFTS IN LAND USE BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL CROPS AND
FORESTANDSHIFTSWITHINFORESTLANDAMONGDIFFERENTINTEN
SITIESOFLANDMANAGEMENTSOMEOFWHICHINVOLVESHIFT
ING FROM LOWER VALUE TO HIGHER VALUE TREE SPECIES )N
ADDITION THERE IS THE CONCERN ABOUT LAND CONVERSION TO
DEVELOPEDUSES!THIRDSETOFOPPORTUNITIESINVOLVECON
SIDERATIONOFTHEPROPENSITYFORPERSISTENTCHANGEINTHE
LEVELS AND TYPES OF HUMAN DEMANDS FOR VARIOUS FOREST
GOODSANDSERVICES
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR ALL END PRODUCTS WITH SEPARATE
DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR 53 DOMESTIC DEMAND #ANADIAN
DOMESTIC DEMAND AND DEMAND FROM VARIOUS TRADING
REGIONSFOREXPORTFROMTHE5NITED3TATESAND#ANADA
!4,!3-ILLSAND+INCAIDISUSEDASANINVEN
TORYPROJECTIONSYSTEMANDESTIMATESOFAVAILABLETIMBER
INVENTORY ARE USED IN THE TIMBER SUPPLY RELATIONS FOR
EACHREGIONANDOWNER!4,!3WASDEVELOPEDTOMODEL
TIMBERINVENTORIESATSUBREGIONALREGIONALANDNATIONAL
SCALES USING TIMBERLAND INVENTORY DATA COLLECTED BY THE
VARIOUS53$!&OREST3ERVICE&OREST)NVENTORYAND!NALY
SIS5NITS&)!4HEDATAARESTRATIlEDANDAGGREGATEDBY
SPECIESGROUPFORESTTYPESITEPRODUCTIVITYANDEXPECTED
MANAGEMENT CLASS 'ROWTH AND YIELD MODELS ARE ESTI
MATEDREPRESENTINGABROADMIXOFCONDITIONSANDMAN
AGEMENTINTENTIONS)NEACHSIMULATIONPERIODINVENTORY
CHANGEISTHERESULTOFGROWTHAREACHANGEANDHARVEST
4HEAREAADJUSTMENTISDERIVEDFROMPROJECTIONSBYAREA
MODELSSEE!LIG!LIGETAL
&ORESTAND!GRICULTURE3ECTOR/PTIMIZATION
-ODEL&!3/-
#OMPARISONOF-ODEL3TRUCTURES
4HE4IMBER!SSESSMENT-ARKET-ODEL
4!--
4HE4!--SYSTEMISONEOFTHEBESTKNOWNEXAMPLES
OFWHATARETERMEDFORESTSECTORMODELS3INCEITSINCEP
TION IN THE LATE S THIS SYSTEM OF MODELS HAS UNDER
GONE A NUMBER OF EXTENSIONS AND REVISIONS DESIGNED TO
IMPROVE THE REALISM OF ITS PROJECTIONS AND THE UTILITY OF
ITSOUTPUTTORESOURCEANALYSTSANDPOLICYMAKERS$ETAILS
ABOUT 4!-- PROJECTIONS AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS
ARE DESCRIBED IN DETAIL IN THE 53$!&OREST 3ERVICE
20! 4IMBER !SSESSMENT (AYNES AND 20!
4IMBER!SSESSMENT5PDATE(AYNESETAL4!--
ISABIOECONOMICMODELTHATPROVIDESANINTEGRATEDSTRUC
TURE FOR CONSIDERING THE BEHAVIOR OF REGIONAL PRICES
CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION IN BOTH STUMPAGE AND
SOLIDWOODPRODUCTMARKETSANDINCORPORATESABILATERALLY
LINKEDMODELOFTIMBERRESOURCESANDTIMBERSUPPLY)N
ITSCURRENTFORMITINCLUDESTHE.ORTH!MERICAN0ULPAND
0APER-ODEL.!0!0FORPAPERPRODUCTSAND!4,!3TO
MODELTIMBERRESOURCES
.!0!0 SEE )NCE USES LINEAR PROGRAMMING TO
SOLVEFORMARKETEQUILIBRIUMINSPATIALLYSPECIlCMARKETS
)TINCLUDESREGIONALSUPPLYFUNCTIONSFORPULPWOODAND
RECOVEREDPAPERRECYCLINGANDADETAILEDREPRESENTATION
OFPRODUCTIONCAPACITYANDSUPPLYFORALLPRINCIPALGRADES
OF MARKET PULP PAPER AND PAPERBOARD IN lVE .ORTH
!MERICAN PRODUCTION REGIONS 4HE MODEL ALSO INCLUDES
4HE&ORESTAND!GRICULTURE3ECTOR/PTIMIZATION-ODEL
&!3/-WASORIGINALLYDEVELOPEDFORTHE53%NVIRON
MENTAL0ROTECTION!GENCYTOESTIMATETHEMARKETIMPACTS
OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION OPTIONS FOR BOTH THE AGRICULTURE
AND FOREST SECTORS !LIG ET AL 5NLIKE 4!--
&!3/-ISAPRICEENDOGENOUSQUASISPATIALMULTIPERIOD
EQUILIBRIUMMODEL)TSOBJECTIVEFUNCTIONMAXIMIZESTHE
DISCOUNTEDECONOMICWELFAREOFPRODUCERSANDCONSUM
ERS SURPLUSES IN THE 53 AGRICULTURE AND FOREST SECTORS
OVERAlNITETIMEHORIZON&!3/-OPERATESONADECADAL
TIMESTEPWITHPROJECTIONSMADEFORDECADESHOWEVER
POLICYANALYSISISLIMITEDTORESULTSFORTHEYEARPERIOD
FROM TO &!3/- EMPLOYS A SINGLE NATIONAL
DEMANDREGIONFORFORESTPRODUCTSWHICHTREATSONLYTHE
LOG MARKET PORTION OF THE SECTOR 4HE NINE 53 TIMBER
SUPPLYREGIONSARESIMILARTO4!--REGIONSEXCEPTFOR
COMBININGTHE.ORTHERNAND3OUTHERN2OCKY-OUNTAIN
REGIONSANDSEPARATINGTHEh#ORN"ELTvANDh,AKE3TATESv
PORTIONSOFTHE.ORTH#ENTRALREGIONBECAUSEOFTHEIRAGRI
CULTURALIMPORTANCE0RIVATETIMBERLANDIN&!3/-REPRE
SENTSAREAGGREGATIONOFTHE!4,!3MODELTHESTRATAARE
DIFFERENTIATED BY CLASS OF OWNERSHIP FOREST INDUSTRY
ANDNONINDUSTRIALFORESTTYPEFOURCLASSESDESCRIBING
SPECIESCOMPOSITIONEITHERSOFTWOODSORHARDWOODSIN
THE CURRENT AND PRECEDING ROTATION SITE PRODUCTIVITY
THREE LEVELS OF POTENTIAL FOR WOOD VOLUME GROWTH MANAGEMENTINTENSITYFOURDISCRETETIMBERMANAGEMENT
REGIMESSUITABILITYFORTRANSFERTOORFROMAGRICULTURAL
USEFOURLANDSUITABILITYCLASSESFORCROPORPASTUREPLUS
AhFORESTONLYvCLASSTHATCANNOTSHIFTUSEANDYEAR
AGECLASSTEN
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
-ILLS!LIG(AYNESAND!DAMS
Interface constraints:
- Bare land (after
harvest)
- Total limit on amount
of convertible forest
land
- Total limit on amount
of convertible
agricultural land
Forest sector model
(TAMM-based)
* Public timberland *
- Exogenous timber
harvest levels
* Forest industry
timberland*
(FORONLY)
Agricultural sector
model
Agricultural land
* Other private timberland *
CROPFOR
FORONLY land
Convertible land
- region
- softwoods and
hardwoods
- productivity classes
- timber management
- intensity class
Convertible
cropland
+
Agriculture-only
land
FORECROP
(3 conversion
cost classes)
PASTFOR
Convertible
pastureland
FORPAST
(3 conversion
cost classes)
Exogenous land transfers
Urban, developed,
and special uses
&IGUREˆ,INKAGEOFFORESTRYANDAGRICULTURESECTORSIN&!3/-
%NDOGENOUSVARIABLESINCLUDETIMBERHARVESTSAND
LOGPRICESFORNINE53REGIONSTWOSPECIESGROUPSAND
THREECLASSESOFPRODUCTSSAWTIMBERPULPWOODANDFUEL
WOOD TIMBER MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT ACTIVITY FOR
TWOPRIVATEOWNERGROUPSFORESTINDUSTRYANDOTHERPRI
VATEAGRICULTURALPRICESANDPRODUCTIONINREGIONS
FORPRIMARYANDSECONDARYCOMMODITIESANDTHE
AMOUNTS OF LAND USED IN AND TRANSFERRED BETWEEN THE
TWOSECTORS!LLEXOGENOUSFORESTRYELEMENTSOFTHEMODEL
AREHELDCONSTANTAFTERTHElFTHDECADE4HEMODELVALUES
TERMINAL INVENTORIES AT THE END OF THE lNITE PROJECTION
PERIODINBOTHSECTORSASSUMINGPERPETUALSTEADYSTATE
MANAGEMENT FOLLOWING THE TERMINAL YEAR OF THE EXPLICIT
TIMEHORIZON!DAMSETALA
4HE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN &!3/- IS ADAPTED FROM THE
!GRICULTURAL3ECTOR-ODEL!3-AGGREGATEDTOREGIONS
MATCHINGTHOSEINTHEFORESTRYSECTOR!3-ISASPATIALPRICE
ENDOGENOUSAGRICULTURALSECTORMODEL#HANGETAL
WITHCONSTANTELASTICITYCURVESUSEDTOREPRESENTDOMESTIC
CONSUMPTION AND EXPORT DEMANDS AS WELL AS INPUT AND
IMPORT SUPPLIES !3- WAS ORIGINALLY CONSTRUCTED AS AN
ESSENTIALLY TIMELESS LONGRUN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL 4O LINK
!3-WITHTHEDECADECYCLESIN&!3/-ANDTHEFORESTSECTOR
WHERE MARKET INTERVENTIONS MAY TAKE SEVERAL DECADES TO
PLAY OUT THE MODEL WAS CONVERTED TO AN ANNUAL FORMAT
5PDATINGBETWEENDECADESWASACCOMPLISHEDUSINGPRO
JECTED GROWTH RATES IN CROP YIELDS DOMESTIC DEMAND
EXPORTSIMPORTSANDCROPLANDAVAILABILITY
/NEREALSTRENGTHOF&!3/-ISTHELINKSBETWEENLAND
INVENTORIESINTHEAGRICULTURALANDFORESTSECTORSlG
3UITABLELANDCANMOVEATANYTIMEBETWEENAGRICULTURAL
ANDFORESTUSESBASEDONCONSIDERATIONSOFINTERTEMPO
RALPROlTABILITYANDSUBJECTTOTHEAVAILABILITYOFRESOURCES
AND THE SPECIlC PROVISIONS OF PARTICULAR POLICIES 4HE
PLANNINGPROBLEMSIMULATEDIN&!3/-ALLOWSLANDOWN
ERSTOFORESEETHEPROlTABILITYCONSEQUENCESOFALLTHEPOS
4HE!GRICULTURAL3ECTOR-ODEL!3-ISDESCRIBEDBY-C#ARL
" # #HANG * !TWOOD .AYDA 7 IN h4HE 53 !GRICULTURE
3ECTOR -ODELv /N lLE WITH THE 3OCIAL AND %CONOMICS 6ALUES
0ROGRAM&ORESTRY3CIENCES,ABORATORY0ACIlC.ORTHWEST3TA
TION37*EFFERSON7AY#ORVALLIS/2
2ISING RELATIVE PRICES FOR URBAN AND DEVELOPED USES AT THE
TOP OF THE ECONOMIC HIERARCHY OF LAND USE PROMPT EXOGENOUS
SHIFTSOFFORESTANDAGRICULTURALLANDTOURBANDEVELOPEDUSESBY
REGIONEACHPERIODALONGWITHSOMETIMBERLANDRECLASSIlEDTO
RESERVEDUSES!LIGETAL!LIGAND7EAR
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
-ILLS!LIG(AYNESAND!DAMS
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
4ABLEˆ#OMPONENTPARTSOFCONTEMPORARYFORESTSECTORMODELS
-ODELCOMPONENT
4YPEOFVARIABLE
0ROCESSMODELFUNCTION
0RODUCTDEMAND
0RODUCTSUPPLY
3TUMPAGEDEMAND
3TUMPAGESUPPLY
,ANDUSECHANGES
0RICESMACROECONOMICVARIABLES
#OSTSCAPACITYLEVELS
#ONVERSIONFACTORS
0RICESINVENTORYATTRIBUTES
,ANDPRICESLANDTYPES
.EWPRODUCTDIFFUSION
#APACITYADJUSTMENT
-ATERIALSBALANCERELATIONSHIPS
2ESOURCEPROJECTIONSYSTEM!4,!3
!REACHANGEPROJECTIONSYSTEM
SIBLEAGRICULTURALANDFORESTUSESOFTHEIRLANDOVERTIME
4HROUGHTHELANDTYPECLASSESHECTARESOFNONINDUSTRIAL
PRIVATE TIMBERLAND THAT COULD BE CONVERTED TO CROPLAND
ANDPASTURELANDANDALSOAGRICULTURALLANDTHATCOULDBE
SHIFTED INTO FORESTRY CAN BE IDENTIlED %STIMATES OF THE
AREA OF CONVERTIBLE FORESTLAND ARE FROM 53$!ESTIMATES
OFFORESTLANDWITHMEDIUMORHIGHPOTENTIALFORCONVER
SIONTOCROPORPASTUREUSEAREAESTIMATESFORCONVERTIBLE
AGRICULTURALLANDAREDRAWNFROM-OULTONAND2ICHARDS
STUDYOFLANDSUITABLEFORTREEPLANTING
4!--AND&!3/-#OMPARISON
4HE 4!-- AND &!3/- MODELS COMPLEMENT EACH
OTHERANDTHEYARERELATEDINSEVERALIMPORTANTWAYS!LIG
AND !DAMS "OTH MODELS CONTAIN REPRESENTATIONS
FORTHEVARIOUSCOMPONENTPARTSOFCONTEMPORARYFOREST
SECTOR MODELS SEE TABLE !S DISCUSSED IN THIS CHAP
TERTHESEREPRESENTATIONSVARYBETWEENTHETWOMODELS
%XTERNALLY THE MODELS HAVE SOME COMMON LINKS BUT
INTERNALLYTHEMODELSOFFERDIFFERENTSOLUTIONMECHANISMS
)N BRIEF BOTH MODELS EMBODY THE FOUR KEY COMPONENTS
OFTIMBERSUPPLYMODELINGSYSTEMSIDENTIlEDBY!LIGET
ALLANDALLOCATIONGROWTHANDYIELDPROJECTIONS
HARVESTmOWSANDFORESTMANAGEMENTINVESTMENT
)NTERMSOFSOMEOFTHEMODELCOMPONENTSILLUSTRATED
IN TABLE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 4!-- AND
&!3/- 4!-- DEALS RELATIVELY EXPLICITLY WITH THE lRST
FOUR MODEL COMPONENTS BY TREATING LAND USE CHANGES
ASANEXOGENOUSPROCESS&!3/-FOCUSESONTHESTUMP
AGEMARKETESPECIALLYTHELASTTWOCOMPONENTSRELYING
ON4!--!4,!3FORPRODUCTMARKETDETAILTHATISCOL
LAPSEDTOASETOFDERIVEDDEMANDRELATIONSHIPSFORLOGS
AGGREGATED AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL )N THE CASE OF BOTH
MODELS THE APPROACH TO ESTIMATING DEMAND CONSIDERS
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES INCLUDING POPU
LATION GROWTH HOUSING STARTS HOUSEHOLD FORMATION AND
SIZE AND TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENTSˆALL OF WHICH ARE
DERIVEDFROMOTHERMODELSANDECONOMICFORECASTS
!NIMPORTANTDISTINCTIONISTHESOLUTIONALGORITHMUSED
TOSIMULATEMARKETBEHAVIOR4HESOLUTIONOF4!--REP
RESENTSASPATIALEQUILIBRIUMINTHEMARKETSMODELEDFOR
EACHYEAROFTHEPROJECTIONPERIOD!SPATIALEQUILIBRIUM
MODELSOLVESFOREQUILIBRIUMBETWEENPRICEANDQUANTITY
SIMULTANEOUSLY IN MULTIPLE SPATIALLY DISTINCT MARKETS AT
TWO DIFFERENT MARKET LEVELS 4HESE SOLUTIONS REPRESENT
PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION AND PRICE TIME PATHS THAT ARE
ESTIMATES OF OUTCOMES OF CONTEMPORANEOUS INTERACTIONS
INFREELYCOMPETITIVEMARKETS&!3/-SOLVESFOREQUILIB
RIUM IN THE STUMPAGELOG MARKET RECOGNIZING SPATIALLY
DISTINCT TIMBER SUPPLY REGIONS )T DIFFERS FROM 4!--
IN THAT IT ALSO SOLVES FOR THE INTERTEMPORAL EQUILIBRIUM
4HAT IS LANDOWNERS MAKE INVESTMENT DECISIONS GUIDED
BYEXACTKNOWLEDGEOFFUTUREPRICESANDHARVESTLEVELS
)N TERMS OF THE RESOURCE SITUATION BOTH 4!-- AND
&!3/- SHARE THE SAME BASE INVENTORY AND PROVIDE
EXPLICIT TREATMENT OF ACTUAL VEGETATION ATTRIBUTES FOR MILLIONHECTARESOF53PRIVATETIMBERLANDS5SINGACTUAL
TYPES FACILITATES ANALYZING THE COMBINATION OF BIOPHYS
ICAL ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC FORCES THAT INmUENCE
THEAMOUNTOFLANDALLOCATEDTOMAJORLANDUSESANDFOREST
COVERTYPESINTHE5NITED3TATES
)NBOTHMODELSTHETIMBERLANDBASEISADJUSTEDOVERTIME
FORTHEMOVEMENTOFLANDBETWEENFORESTTIMBERPRODUC
TION AND NONFOREST INCLUDING AGRICULTURAL URBAN AND
RESERVED USES )N 4!-- LAND ALLOCATION IS EXOGENOUS
PROVIDEDBYMODELSOFLANDUSECHANGESTHATASSUMELAND
OWNERS ARE PRESENT VALUE QUASIRENT MAXIMIZERS IN ALLO
CATING LAND TO ALTERNATIVE USES EG!LIG %XAMPLES
ARE USUALLY CAST IN THE CONTEXT OF TWO PRIMARY COMPETING
USES BUT IN MOST CASES METHODS CAN BE READILY EXTENDED
TOMULTIPLEUSES3YSTEMSOFEQUATIONSDESCRIBETHEMAJOR
LAND USES !LIG )N &!3/- THIS FORESTRYAGRICULTURE
LANDUSEMARGINISENDOGENOUS)NBOTHMODELSWHENTIM
BERLAND SHIFTS TO A NONFOREST USE A PORTION OF THE TIMBER
VOLUMEISOFTENHARVESTEDANDCOUNTEDINTHECURRENTAGGRE
GATECUTFROMTHESTRATUM4HISREmECTSTHEPROCESSOFLAND
CLEARINGORVOLUMEREDUCTIONASSOCIATEDWITHMOSTLANDUSE
CHANGESINTHEPRIVATESECTOR!LIGETAL
4HEINVESTMENTSAREASSOCIATEDWITHVARIOUSTIMBERMAN
AGEMENTPRACTICES4HEYIELDREGIMESDERIVEDFORTHE!4,!3
MODELAREUSEDINBOTHMODELS3OMEOFTHESEAREEMPIRI
CALLYBASEDBASEDINPARTONTHEREGIONAL&)!SURVEYPLOTS
0OWELL ET AL WHILE OTHERS ARE PRODUCTS OF SPECIlC
STANDMODELS!SSIGNMENTOFAREASTOMANAGEMENTINTENSITY
CLASSES -)#S ARE BASED ON DATA DERIVED FROM lELD MEA
SUREMENTSANDJUDGMENTSOF53$!&OREST3ERVICEINVENTORY
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
ANALYSTSANDEXPERTSININDUSTRYANDOTHERGROUPS!-)#
ISDElNEDBYACOMBINATIONOFSILVICULTURALACTIVITIESINCLUD
INGBUTNOTLIMITEDTOIMPROVEDREGENERATIONSTOCKINGCON
TROLCOMMERCIALTHINNINGANDFERTILIZATION,ANDCANSHIFT
AMONG-)#SOVERTIMETOREmECTCHANGESINTIMBERMANAGE
MENTINVESTMENT4HISINVESTMENTISTREATEDASEXOGENOUS
IN4!--!4,!3WHEREASCHEDULEOFMANAGEMENTTREAT
MENTSISDEVELOPEDFORALLPRIVATELANDSCONSIDEREDINTHE
!4,!3PROJECTION4HISSCHEDULEISBASEDONCURRENTEXPEC
TATIONS BUT IS NOT SENSITIVE TO ENDOGENOUS PRICE CHANGES
OR PROJECTED MARKET ELEMENTS THOUGH IT MAY BE CHANGED
THROUGHCONSIDERATIONSOFMODELOUTCOMES)N&!3/-THE
INVESTMENTACTIONSAREPARTOFTHESOLUTION4HEEXTENTAND
TIMINGOFTHE-)#SHIFTSREPRESENTANOPTIMALSOLUTIONBASED
ONTHEhPERFECTKNOWLEDGEvOFFUTUREMARKETS
2ESULTS
"OTH 4!-- AND &!3/- HAVE BEEN USED IN THE CON
TEXTOFSCENARIOPLANNINGTOEXAMINEAWIDERANGEOFALTER
NATIVE SCENARIOS RELATED TO THE ROLE OF FORESTRY IN CLIMATE
CHANGE)NTHISSECTIONWEDESCRIBEGENERALIZEDRESULTSFOR
SEVERAL OF THESE SCENARIOS 4!-- WAS USED TO EXAMINE
THEEFFECTOFINCREASEDATMOSPHERICCARBONDIOXIDEONTHE
TIMBERSITUATIONINTHE5NITED3TATESANDITHASALSOBEEN
USEDTOEXAMINETHEUSEOFVARIOUSFORESTPOLICIESTOMIT
IGATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BUT THAT WORK IS DISCUSSED
ELSEWHERESEE#HAPTERAND(AYNESETAL
&!3/-HASBEENUSEDTOEXAMINESEVERALALTERNATIVE
FUTURES OF INCREASED FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION 4HE
&!3/-RESULTSABOUTMITIGATIONOPTIONSARESUMMARIZED
IN#HAPTER
#LIMATE#HANGEAND&OREST0RODUCTIVITYˆ
4!-4!--!4,!3HASBEENRUNFORSCENARIOSWHEREFOREST
PRODUCTIVITYWASSENSITIVETOCLIMATECHANGEFORDETAILS
SEE *OYCE 4HE NATURE OF THE PROSPECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGEWASADOUBLINGOFATMOSPHERICCARBONDIOXIDEBY
THEYEAR!BIOGEOCHEMISTRYMODEL4%-WASUSED
INCONJUNCTIONWITHGENERALCIRCULATIONMODELS'#-STO
PROJECTCHANGESINFORESTNETPRIMARYPRODUCTIVITY.00
! KEY ASSUMPTION WAS THAT CHANGES IN ANNUAL .00 OF
POTENTIALVEGETATIONWEREPROPORTIONALTOANNUALCHANGES
INTHERATEOFPROJECTEDFORESTGROWTH4HESECHANGESWERE
APPLIEDTOTHEFORESTTYPESIN!4,!3EFFECTIVELYLINKINGA
BIOGEOCHEMISTRYMODELTOAFORESTSECTORMODEL
2ESULTSFROMTHEBASELINEPROJECTIONSOFTHE20!
4IMBER!SSESSMENT(AYNESETALWERECOMPARED
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
-ILLS!LIG(AYNESAND!DAMS
WITH THREE SCENARIOS DEPICTING A MAXIMUM MEAN AND
MINIMUM SET OF CHANGES IN .00 7ITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON 3OUTHERN HARDWOODS IN THE MINI
MUMPROJECTIONSTHECHANGEIN.00WASPOSITIVEFORALL
FORESTTYPESINALLREGIONS)NTOTALTHEPROJECTEDINCREASES
IN .00 FAR OUTWEIGHED DECLINES 4HIS SET OF SCENARIOS
INCREASEDFORESTGROWTHOVERALLREGIONSWHICHLEDTOA
ANDPERCENTINCREASEININVENTORYONPRIVATELANDS
TOBILLIONCUBICFEETABOVETHEBASE7HERETHE20!
BASELINEPROJECTIONSSHOWEDDECLINESTHECLIMATECHANGE
SCENARIOSSHOWINCREASES
/NEFUNDAMENTALRESULTFROMTHE4!--!4,!3SIM
ULATIONSHASBEENTOSHOWHOWINCREASESINGROWTHEVEN
TUALLY IMPACTS LEVELS OF HARVEST 'ROWTH ACCUMULATES
AS INVENTORY VOLUME LEADING TO INCREASES IN THE TIMBER
AVAILABLE FOR HARVEST THERE IS A MARKET PRICE RESPONSE
AND THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE HARVEST "UT NOT ONLY IS
THIS INCREASE IN HARVEST A LAGGED RESPONSE THE MAGNI
TUDEOFTHEINCREASEINDICATESARELATIVELYSMALLCONSUMER
RESPONSETOLOWERLUMBERPRICES$EMANDFORSOLIDWOOD
PRODUCTS IS DERIVED FROM CONSUMPTION OF HOUSES OTHER
TYPES OF BUILDINGS AND A WIDE RANGE OF CONSUMER AND
INDUSTRIALPRODUCTS$EMANDFORPAPERISPRIMARILYINmU
ENCEDBYOVERALLECONOMICGROWTH)NBOTHCASESDOWN
WARD CHANGES IN WOOD PRICES OR lBER IN THE CASE OF
PAPER REPRESENT ONLY A SMALL PROPORTION OF TOTAL PRO
DUCTIONCOSTS4HISISASIGNIlCANTRESULTANDITISCONSIS
TENTWITHWORKREFERENCEDEARLIERTHATSTUDIEDTHEMARKET
IMPACTSOFACIDRAINANDATMOSPHERICOZONE4HESEAPPLI
CATIONSILLUSTRATEDTWOIMPORTANTFEATURESOF4!--lRST
THEEXPLICITTEMPORALSTRUCTUREDETAILEDTHERELATIVELYLONG
LAGBETWEENCHANGESINNETGROWTHANDEVENTUALCHANGES
INHARVESTSANDATTENDANTECONOMICIMPACTSANDSECOND
4!--S EXPLICIT TREATMENT OF BOTH STUMPAGE AND PROD
UCT MARKETS ALLOWS FOR EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF PRODUCER
ANDCONSUMERSURPLUSMEASURESTHATFOLLOWTHEUSUALECO
NOMICCONVENTIONSFORBOTHPRODUCTANDFACTORMARKETS
4!--!4,!3HASALSOHELPEDSHAPEPERCEPTIONSTHAT
WITHACHANGEINAVAILABLESUPPLIESOFHARVESTABLEINVEN
TORIESTHEREISASHIFTOFHARVESTBOTHAMONGANDWITHIN
REGIONSASPRODUCTPRODUCTIONADJUSTSTOTAKEADVANTAGE
OFLOWERCOSTRAWMATERIALSINSOMEREGIONS3HIFTSOCCUR
BETWEENlBERTYPESANDBETWEENOWNERSHIPCLASSES5NDER
THE4%-SCENARIOSTHEREISAHIGHEROVERALLSUPPLYOFSOFT
WOODS AND LOWER PRICES (ARVEST THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE
INDUSTRY OWNERSHIP )N MOST REGIONS CAPACITY INCREASES
AND THE HARVEST EXPANDS FASTER ON INDUSTRY LAND THAN IT
DOES ON NONINDUSTRIAL TIMBERLANDS )N THE 0ACIlC #OAST
THENONINDUSTRIALHARVESTDECLINESUNDERALLTHREESCENAR
IOS-ANYOFTHESECHANGESARESTIMULATEDBYCHANGESIN
STUMPAGE PRICES WHICH RELATIVE TO SOFTWOOD SAWTIMBER
STUMPAGE PRICES IN THE 20!BASE PROJECTION THAT FOLLOW
AN UPWARD SLOPING PATH TO THESE NEW PROJECTIONS
SHOWALEVELINGOFPRICESBYANDTHENPRICESBEGINTO
DECLINEANDBYDROPBELOWLEVELSPREDICTEDFOR
-ILLS!LIG(AYNESAND!DAMS
4HISPASTWORKALSOSHOWEDTHEIMPORTANCEOFTRADE
INTHATWITHOUTACHANGEINMARKETDEMANDORACHANGE
IN#ANADIANINVENTORIESDOMESTICHARVESTREPLACES#ANA
DIANHARVEST)MPORTSOF#ANADIANLUMBERDECREASEBOTH
INTOTALVOLUMEANDASAPERCENTOFTHEMARKET#HEAPER
53 RAW MATERIAL HAS BOTH INCREASED LUMBER CONSUMP
TION AND MADE THE #ANADIAN LUMBER LESS COMPETITIVE
7ITHOUTEXPLICITLYMODELING#ANADASRESOURCESECTORIT
ISDIFlCULTTOSAYHOWACHANGEIN#ANADIANPRODUCTIVITY
WOULDAFFECTTHELEVELOF53IMPORTS
#LIMATE#HANGEAND&OREST0RODUCTIVITYˆ
&!3/4HE &!3/- FRAMEWORK HAS BEEN USED AS A PLATFORM
FOR INVESTIGATING IMPLICATIONS OF INCREASED FOREST CARBON
SEQUESTRATION!LIGETAL!DAMSETAL
CONSTRAINTS ON AVAILABLE FUNDS FOR FOREST INVESTMENT BY
PRIVATEOWNERS!LIGETAL!DAMSETALBIO
MASS ANALYSES AND NATURAL RESOURCE POLICIES !LIG ET AL
)NVESTIGATINGTHESENSITIVITYOF&!3/-PROJECTIONS
TOARANGEOFDIFFERENTASSUMPTIONSOFFERSAUNIQUEPER
SPECTIVEPARTICULARLYWHEREPOLICYMAKERSARECONCERNED
WITHLINKAGESBETWEENFORESTRYANDAGRICULTUREANDWITH
BOTH ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF DIF
FERENTPOLICYALTERNATIVESEGINFORMATIONONFUTURENON
TIMBERRESOURCECONDITIONSSUCHASWILDLIFEHABITAT!LIG
ETAL
4HE&!3/-MODELWASAPPLIEDTOEXAMINETHEDIMEN
SIONSOFECONOMICIMPACTSDUETOHYPOTHETICALBIOLOGICAL
RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE "URTON ET AL 4HISEXPLORATORYSTUDYCONSIDEREDEIGHTPOSSIBLESCENAR
IOSFORGLOBALCLIMATECHANGEEFFECTS4HEYWEREDESIGNED
AS AN ATTEMPT TO DIMENSION THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLI
MATE CHANGE 4HE lRST FOUR CLIMATEBIOLOGICAL RESPONSE
SCENARIOSEVALUATETHEEFFECTSOFACROSSTHEBOARDCHANGES
IN TREE GROWTH RATES OR YIELD FOR EACH DECADE 4HE lRST
SCENARIOPOSTULATESANINCREASEOFPERCENTINTREEGROWTH
RATES EVERYWHERE IN THE 5NITED 3TATES 4HE SECOND POS
TULATES AN ACROSSTHEBOARD DECREASE IN GROWTH RATES OF
PERCENT 4WO SCENARIOS CONSIDER NATIONAL GROWTH RATE
CHANGESOFPLUSPERCENTANDMINUSPERCENT
)NADDITIONTWOSCENARIOSEXPLORETHEDIFFERENTEFFECTS
FROM INCREASED WARMING AT DIFFERENT LATITUDES IN THE
5NITED3TATES4HEWARMINGCOUPLEDWITHASLIGHTDECLINE
INPRECIPITATIONMAYNEGATIVELYIMPACTTIMBERYIELDSIN
THE SOUTHERN 5NITED 3TATES !T THE SAME TIME YIELDS IN
THENORTHERN5NITED3TATESMAYRISE4HEREFOREAPAIROF
SOUTHERNDECLINESCENARIOSWERECONSTRUCTED/NEPOSTU
LATESAPERCENTDECLINEINYIELDINTHE3OUTHAPERCENT
INCREASEINTHE.ORTHANDNOCHANGEINOTHERREGIONS!
SECONDSOUTHERNDECLINESCENARIOEXPLORESTHEIMPACTOFA
PERCENTDECREASEINTHE3OUTHAPERCENTINCREASEIN
THE.ORTHANDNOCHANGEINOTHERREGIONS4HEBASELINE
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
CASEISSIMILARTOTHATDESCRIBEDBY(AYNESETALFOR
THE20!!SSESSMENT5PDATE
-C#ARL ET AL HAVE SINCE DEVELOPED RESPONSE
FUNCTIONSTHATREPRESENTAWIDERANGEOFSCENARIOSFORTHE
BIOLOGICALRESPONSEOFFORESTSTOCLIMATECHANGERANGING
FROM SMALL TO LARGE CHANGES IN FOREST GROWTH RATES 4HE
RESPONSEFUNCTIONSAREUSEDTOCHARACTERIZEBROADIMPACTS
OFCLIMATECHANGEONTHEFORESTSECTOR!GGREGATEIMPACTS
ACROSSALLCONSUMERSANDPRODUCERSINSOCIETYARERELA
TIVELYSMALLBUTTHATPRODUCERSINCOMEANDFUTUREWELFARE
nYEARSINTHEFUTUREAREMOSTATRISK
4HE &!3/- MODEL PROJECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF FOREST
PRODUCTS PRODUCTION PRICE LEVELS TIMBER MANAGEMENT
CHANGES LAND TRANSFERS AND ECONOMIC WELFARE EFFECTS
4HERESULTSOFTHEEXPLORATORYSTUDYINDICATETHATMARKET
RESPONSESTOCLIMATECHANGEWILLVARYBYREGION)FYIELDS
INCREASENATIONALLYTHE.ORTHCANPRODUCERELATIVELYMORE
FORESTPRODUCTS)FYIELDSDECREASENATIONALLYTHE3OUTHCAN
PRODUCERELATIVELYMORE)FYIELDSINTHE3OUTHDECREASE
WHILE THEY RISE IN THE .ORTH PRODUCTION OF FOREST PROD
UCTS IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE 3OUTH )F STAND
ESTABLISHMENTCOSTSRISEINTHE3OUTHPRODUCTIONMAYALSO
SHIFTAWAYFROMTHE3OUTH
#HANGES IN TIMBER PRODUCER AND CONSUMER PRICES
UNDERTHECLIMATECHANGESCENARIOSRELATIVETOTHEBASESCE
NARIOAREFAIRLYSMALLINMAGNITUDE7HENSOUTHERNCOSTS
OF TIMBER PRODUCTION RISE TIMBER PRICE LEVELS INCREASE
MORESUBSTANTIALLYTHANINOTHERSCENARIOS
4HE ECONOMIC WELFARE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE SCENARIOS IS SMALLˆLESS THAN A PERCENT CHANGE
FROMTHEBASESCENARIOACROSSALLEIGHTHYPOTHETICALCASES
)NGENERALWHENYIELDSRISECONSUMERSGAIN7HENYIELDS
FALLORCOSTSRISEPRODUCERSGAIN)N&!3/-ANYCHANGE
INFUTURECONDITIONSISOPTIMALLYANTICIPATEDFROMANET
SOCIALWELFAREVIEWPOINTANDINVESTMENTISFREELYmEXIBLE
TOVARYOVERTIME!REPRESENTATIONOFhREALWORLDvBEHAV
IORWOULDDOUBTLESSBESOMEWHATLESSADAPTABLERECOG
NIZINGLIMITATIONSOFTHEDECISIONMAKER4HESTRUCTUREOF
THEPRESENTMODELHASBEENMODIlEDTOEXAMINESOMEOF
THESEQUESTIONSOFhSTICKINESSvINPRODUCTANDCAPITALMAR
KETS!LIGETAL!DAMSETALINCLUDINGLIMITS
ON INVESTMENT BORROWING OR CAPITAL BUDGETS INCREASING
MARGINAL COSTS OF BORROWING AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
FUTURE MARKET CONDITIONS 4HE &!3/- RESULTS IN THE
INVESTMENTS CASE ARE CLOSER TO THOSE PROJECTED BY THE
4!-- MODEL FOR COMPARABLE SCENARIOS 5SE OF BOTH
THE 4!-- AND &!3/- MODELS REVEALS THE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN LIKELY FUTURE PATHS FOR THE FOREST SECTOR IF
HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN KEY VARIABLES CONTINUE
VERSUSPRODUCTIONPOSSIBILITIESANDOPTIMALRESPONSES
TO EXTERNAL EVENTS EG CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLICIES
&!3/- ASSUMES PERFECT FORESIGHT AND OPTIMAL ADJUST
'LOBALCHANGEMITIGATIONANALYSESUSINGTHE&!3/-MODEL
AREDISCUSSEDINCHAPTEROFTHISREPORT
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
Mills, Alig, Haynes, and Adams
1982 = 100
Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the Forest Sector
Figure 4.2—Softwood lumber price index under different views of the future including one prospective view of climate change. (The
CEA projection represents the results from an alternative macro economic forecast developed by the Council of Economic Advisers in
1994.) Source: Haynes et al. 1995.
ments in the unfettered case. As such it shows a greater
shift to pine plantations, and as timber prices fall, an
increase in land moving from forest to agriculture and a
decrease of investment in pine plantations.
With FASOM having all four key timber supply modeling elements as endogenous components, a different
set of projected adjustments (both temporally and across
regions) are possible than with TAMM. A range of adjustments is discussed in Chapter 8, where analyses of global
change mitigation strategies using the FASOM model are
reviewed.
Model Uncertainties
These two forest sector models are useful in developing a portfolio of possible impacts of human uses (in
a commodity sense) on forests under climate change.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
Such factors are not normally considered with most climate change simulation models. They show how and the
extent that climate-change influences on U.S. timberlands
will be mitigated by market feedbacks between the natural resource base and the production and consumption
of forest products. This helps place the issue in context.
As shown in figure 4.2, the prospective impacts on the
U.S. forest sector of one view of global climate change is
overshadowed in the near term by other contemporary
policy concerns such as habitat conservation strategies
that involve reductions of timber harvest on federal timberlands in the west (e.g. Adams et al. 1996b). This raises
questions about the timing of the often cited prospective
catastrophic ecological declines associated with climate
change and the accompanying specter of economic dislocation within the U.S. forest sector. This scenario needs to
be examined in light of the extent and speed of changes
induced by price signals from timber markets. That is, to
what extent will the expectations of lower prices in the
future associated with climate-change reduce land management actions taken in the next decade?
75
-ILLS!LIG(AYNESAND!DAMS
,IKE ALL VIEWS OF THE FUTURE THOSE DISCUSSED IN THIS
CHAPTERAREHIGHLYDEPENDENTONTHEUNDERLYINGASSUMP
TIONS INCLUDING MODEL FORM !N IDEAL SYSTEM CAN VARY
WITHTHEPOLICYANALYSISNEEDSBUTATRULYIDEALSYSTEMIS
NOTPOSSIBLEBECAUSEOFLIMITEDRESOURCESANDDATAGAPS
0ROJECTIONS OF TIMBER MARKETS REQUIRE ASSUMPTIONS CON
CERNINGFUTUREPRODUCTDEMANDWHICHISLARGELYBASED
ON PROJECTED POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT CAPACITY
WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON mEXIBILITY IN LOCATION OF PRODUC
TIONANDPROlTABILITYANDAVAILABLETIMBERINVENTORY
WHICHISDEPENDENTONAREAINTIMBERLANDANDMINIMUM
STANDARDS FOR TREE SIZE AGE BY OWNER AND lBER TYPE
#HALLENGESALSOARISERELATEDTOTHESCALEOFTHEANALYSIS
&OR EXAMPLE THE TIMBER INVENTORY MODELING ASSUMES A
BROADRANGEOFHABITATSANDSPECIESCANBEAGGREGATEDINTO
FORESTTYPESACROSSLARGEREGIONS!TTHISLEVELTHECHANGES
IN INVENTORY DID NOT RECOGNIZE THE POTENTIAL RESPONSES
THAT MIGHT BE ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUALS IN THE SYSTEM
ORHOWADAPTIVEFORESTMANAGEMENTREGIMESMIGHTAFFECT
THOSE INDIVIDUALS !SSUMPTIONS ARE MADE IN AVERAGING
OVER THE RANGE OF VARIABILITY IN ECOLOGICAL RELATIONSHIPS
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURE CHANGES RAINFALL PATTERNS
NUTRIENTCYCLINGANDTHRESHOLDSINGROWTHORSITECARRY
INGCAPACITYRELATEDTOTHEABILITYOFECOSYSTEMSTOADAPT
TOCHANGE!DDITIONALLYCHANGINGVEGETATIONPATTERNSARE
ASSUMEDNOTTOINmUENCECLIMATICCONDITIONS
4HOUGHTHESEMODELSACCOUNTEDFORHARVESTANDIMPOR
TATION OF WOOD PRODUCTS FROM #ANADA THEY DID NOT
ACCOUNTFORCLIMATEINDUCEDCHANGESIN#ANADIANINVEN
TORIES-ELILLOETALFOUNDTHATTHEHIGHERLATITUDE
FORESTSEXPERIENCEDINCREASESINPRODUCTIVITYATLEASTEQUAL
TOTHOSEOFTHE.ORTHERN5NITED3TATES4HISRESULTWOULD
LIKELYLEADTOAPOSSIBLYHIGHERIMPORTLEVELTHANPREVI
OUSLYCONSIDERED
/THER ASSUMPTIONS NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONTEXT SUR
ROUNDING FOREST SECTOR ISSUES &OR EXAMPLE WORLDWIDE
ASSESSMENTSOFHUMANINmUENCESHOULDINCORPORATEDIF
FERENCES IN LIKELY USE OF FOREST RESOURCES 3PECIlCALLY
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TEND TO VIEW FORESTS AS A SOURCE
OF FOOD AND FUEL WHEREAS IN .ORTH !MERICA FORESTS ARE
VIEWED AS A SOURCE OF INDUSTRIAL WOOD PRODUCTS AND A
RANGEOFAMENITIES
&INALLY 53 PRODUCT MARKETS HAVE GROWN PERCENT
PERCENTPERYEAROVERTHEPASTFOURDECADESWHILEAT
THESAMETIMEFORESTRESOURCESHAVEGROWNPERCENT)N
THE NEXT lVE DECADES WE EXPECT SLOWING IN THE GROWTH
OF CONSUMPTION AND IN FOREST RESOURCES (AYNES ET AL
0ROSPECTIVE CHANGES IN PRICES SIGNAL CHANGES IN
TASTES INDUSTRY LOCATION AND INCENTIVES TO LANDOWNERS
ALL OF WHICH ACT TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE4WOIMPORTANTCONCEPTSTOCONSIDERWHENDEVEL
OPING ASSESSMENTS OF FORESTS WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATE
CHANGE ARE INCLUDE EFFECTS OF HUMANS AS THE MOST
ADAPTABLE COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM AND MAKE CLEAR
DISTINCTIONSBETWEENSCIENCEANDPOLICYORPOLITICS
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
/NGOING7ORK
4HEREHAVEALSOBEENEFFORTSTOBROADENTHEEXAMINA
TIONOFTHETIMBERSECTORUNDERCLIMATECHANGEBYLINKING
4!-- WITH A BIOGEOGRAPHY MODEL KNOWN AS -APPED
!TMOSPHERE0LANT3OIL 3YSTEM -!033 .EILSON 3EE #HAPTER FOR A MORE COMPREHENSIVE DESCRIPTION
OFBIOGEOGRAPHYMODELSAND-!0334ODATEWETOOK
A LINKAGE APPROACH OPPOSITE THAT USED WITH 4%- 4HE
!4,!3TIMBERLANDINVENTORIESWERETRANSLATEDANDTHEN
REAGGREGATEDINTOTHEPHYSIOGNOMICVEGETATIONTYPESPRO
JECTEDBY-!0334HISALLOWED!4,!3TOSIMULATESIMUL
TANEOUSCHANGESINCOVERTYPEANDFORESTPRODUCTIVITYIN
TERMSOF-!033
$IFlCULTIESAROSEWHENWEATTEMPTEDTOMATCHTHE20!
BASEPROJECTIONINTERMSOFTHEPHYSIOGNOMICCOVERTYPES
4HE-!033TYPESWEREBROADERINCLUDINGMULTIPLEFOREST
TYPES4HETYPETRANSITIONANDLANDAREASHIFTSALREADYIN
THEBASEPROJECTIONHADTOBEPRESERVEDSOASNOTTOLOSE
THEGROWTHANDHARVESTINTERACTIONATlNERSCALES&URTHER
DIFlCULTYAROSEWHEN!4,!3COULDNOTMATCHTHEHARD
WOODANDSOFTWOODAGGREGATIONREQUIREDBY4!--4HE
NEWVEGETATIONTYPESCUTACROSSTHETRADITIONALSOFTWOOD
AND HARDWOOD CATEGORIES IN WHICH THE FOREST TYPES lT
4IMEANDEXPERTISEHAVENOTBEENAVAILABLETOREPROGRAM
THE 4!--!4,!3 MODEL LINKAGES )T IS ASSUMED THAT
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD LARGE SHIFTS IN VEGETATION AND PRODUC
TIVITYPROJECTEDUNDERSOMESCENARIOSWOULDREQUIRESIG
NIlCANTRECALIBRATIONOFTHEECONOMICSIDEOFTHEMODEL
4HE PROJECT REMAINS A SIGNIlCANT RESEARCH CHALLENGE FOR
THEFUTURE
#ONCLUSIONS
"OTH 4!-- AND &!3/- ARE AFlLIATED MODELS THAT
SHAREMANYCOMMONFEATURESANDPRESENTSIMILARVIEWSOF
THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFORESTSANDATMOSPHERICISSUES
"OTH HELP TO PLACE PROSPECTIVE ATMOSPHERIC ISSUES CON
CERNS ABOUT ECOLOGICAL CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE
CHANGE AND CONCERNS ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF VARIOUS
MITIGATION MEASURES IN CONTEXT "OTH MODELS CHALLENGE
ECOLOGISTS AND POLICY ANALYSTS TO BE EXPLICIT IN THE SIZE
LOCATIONANDTIMINGOFVARIOUSIMPACTSANDTOCONSIDER
THE TRANSITION FROM CURRENT VEGETATION AND TO GAUGE THE
TRADEOFFS BETWEEN NEAR TERM POLICY CONCERNS AND LONG
TERM ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS 7HILE NOT EXPLICITLY ADDRESSED
ELSEWHERE BOTH MODELS OFFER A COMMON FRAMEWORK FOR
INTEGRATINGBIOPHYSICALANDSOCIALSYSTEMSANDFORTRACING
HOWCHANGESINTYPICALLYBIOPHYSICALATTRIBUTESGROWTH
AREA OF CERTAIN TYPES ETC AFFECT VARIOUS MEASURES OF
ECONOMIC BENElTS AND COSTS )N THAT ROLE THESE MODELS
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
-ODELING#LIMATE#HANGE)MPACTSONTHE&OREST3ECTOR
OPERATE AT THE INTERFACE OF SCIENCE AND POLICY WHERE THE
EMPHASISISONHOWMODELSTHEMSELVESIMPROVETHEINFOR
MATIONAVAILABLEFORDECISIONMAKERS4HATSAMEINFORMA
TIONFROMTHEPOLICYPERSPECTIVEHELPSSHAPEPERCEPTIONS
ABOUTTHEEFFECTIVENESSOFVARIOUSMANAGEMENTACTIONS
,ITERATURE#ITED
!DAMS $ !LIG 2 #ALLAWAY *- ;ET AL= A 4HE FOREST AND
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OPTIMIZATION MODEL &!3/- MODEL STRUCTURE
AND POLICY APPLICATIONS 2ES 0AP 0.7 20 0ORTLAND /2
53 $EPARTMENT OF !GRICULTURE &OREST 3ERVICE 0ACIlC .ORTHWEST
2ESEARCH3TATIONP
!DAMS$!LIG2-C#ARL"-INIMUMCOSTSTRATEGIESOFSEQUES
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!DAMS$!LIG2-C#ARL";ETAL=B!NALYSISOFTHEIMPACTSOF
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5NITED3TATES&OREST3CIENCEn
!DAMS$!LIG2-C#ARL";ETAL=4HEEFFECTSOFFACTORSUPPLY
ASSUMPTIONS ON INTERTEMPORAL TIMBER SUPPLY BEHAVIOR THE CASE OF
INVESTABLEFUNDSANDLAND#ANADIAN*OURNALOF&OREST2ESEARCH
n
!DAMS $- (AYNES 27 4HE SOFTWOOD TIMBER ASSESSMENT
MARKETMODELSTRUCTUREPROJECTIONSANDPOLICYSIMULATIONS&OREST
3CIENCE-ONOGRAPH.OP
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MODEL STRUCTURE PROJECTIONS AND POLICY SIMULATIONS 'EN 4ECH
2EP0.70ORTLAND/253$EPARTMENTOF!GRICULTURE&OREST
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AGETRENDSINTHE3OUTHEAST&OREST3CIENCEn
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&!3/-ANDRELATEDMODELS)N,ARGESCALEFORESTRYSCENARIOMODELS
EXPERIENCESANDREQUIREMENTS0AIVINEN22OIHUVUO,3IITONEN
- EDS %UROPEAN &ORESTRY )NSTITUTE 0ROCEEDINGS .O *OENSUU
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!LIG2!DAMS$-C#ARL"%COLOGICALANDECONOMICIMPACTS
OF FOREST POLICIES INTERACTIONS ACROSS FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE %CO
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ANDLONGRUNSUSTAINABLEHARVESTVOLUMES)N"OYLE*+AVANAUGH
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TIONSTOSUSTAINABLESOCIETIESCONFERENCE*UNEn*ULY0ORT
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!LIG 2 !DAMS $ -C#ARL " #ALLAWAY * ;ET AL= !SSESSING
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