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TYPES RESPECTIVELY FOR MODELING PURPOSES 4HE VEGETA
TION AGGREGATION SCHEMES AND THE NATURE OF THE SPATIAL
EXTRAPOLATION DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECOLOGICAL AND THE ECO
NOMIC MODELS 4HE IMPLICATIONS OF AN ECOLOGICAL VERSUS
ATIMBERMANAGEMENTCLASSIlCATIONSCHEMEAREDISCUSSED
INTHISCHAPTER
#OMPUTATIONAL PROBLEMS ARISE WHEN INTEGRATING OR
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SPATIALSCALES#OMPUTATIONALLIMITATIONSFORCEATRADEOFF
BETWEENTHESPATIALEXTENTOFTHEANALYSISOFTENDICTATED
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ANALYSISWEREARESPONSETOINCREASEDATMOSPHERICCARBON
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LOGICAL OPPORTUNITIES WERE DElNED AS THE POTENTIAL NET
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OF PERCENT OVER THE CURRENT NET ANNUAL GROWTH OF BILLION CUBIC FEET 3EVERAL DECADES WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES 6ASIEVICH AND !LIG ESTI
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BYFORESTTYPESINWHICHTHENAMEDSPECIESEITHERSINGLY
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ING 4HE INVENTORY TYPES ARE BASED ON A STANDARD SET OF
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.!0!0 MODEL WAS NOT DEVELOPED TO MODEL GEOGRAPH
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MODELSDATAFROMINTENSIVELYSTUDIEDECOSYSTEMSREPRE
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IBRATION OF MODEL BEHAVIOR 4HESE MODELS ARE SPATIALLY
EXTRAPOLATED BY USING VEGETATION MAPS &OR THE 4%-
MODELTHE5NITED3TATESHASBEENGRIDDEDINTODEGREE
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FORESTTEMPERATEMIXEDFORESTTEMPERATEBROADLEAFEVER
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5NITED3TATES)NTHELAST20!ANALYSIS*OYCE.00
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!METHODWASNECESSARYTORECLASSIFYINFORMATIONFROM
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3OUTHWEST REGION (ERE THE ASSUMPTION WAS MADE THAT
THERESPONSETOCLIMATECHANGEWOULDBEMOREAPPROPRI
ATELY DESCRIBED BY USING A SIMILAR ECOSYSTEM TYPE BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION RATHER THAN A DIFFERENT VEGETATION
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ON MOIST SLOPES OF THE #OAST AND #ASCADE RANGES %YRE
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ETATION THAT TYPICALLY REPLACES RED ALDER THE CEDAR HEM
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VOLUME OF ASPENBIRCH WAS MODIlED BY THE 4%- .00
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NORTHERN HARDWOODS AND NORTHERN HARDWOODSSPRUCE
0.6TYPES
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%COSYSTEM0RODUCTIVITYANDTHE)MPACTOF#LIMATE#HANGE
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ERN MIXED FOREST 0.6 TYPES WERE USED TO ASSESS THE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TIMBER VOLUME OF THE TWO
FORESTMANAGEMENTTYPES
#LEARLYTHEREARELIMITATIONSWITHASSIGNINGFORESTMAN
AGEMENTTYPESTOPOTENTIALNATURALVEGETATIONTYPES%CO
LOGICALMODELSREPRESENTTHEMOSTCURRENTUNDERSTANDING
OFHOWECOLOGICALPROCESSESOPERATEATTHEECOSYSTEMSCALE
4HE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THESE ECOSYSTEMS IMPLIES
A SIMILARITY OF ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION WITHIN THE RANGE OF
EACH ECOSYSTEM TYPE AS WELL AS A GEOGRAPHIC PRESENCE
UNALTEREDBYLANDUSE&ORESTMANAGEMENTMODELSHAVE
FOCUSEDONTHEYIELDOFWOODFROMFORESTLAND4HEAGGRE
GATIONOFINVENTORYPLOTSINTOAFORESTMANAGEMENTTYPE
IMPLIES A SIMILARITY IN TIMBER PRODUCTION WITH THE GEO
GRAPHICRANGEOFTHATFORESTMANAGEMENTTYPE&ORBOTH
OFTHESECLASSIlCATIONSYSTEMSTHEECOSYSTEMDYNAMICSOR
TIMBER PRODUCTION WITHIN A TYPE MAY BE QUITE VARIABLE
#URRENT LAND USES HAVE ALTERED POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
)NVENTORYDATAISMORELIKELYTOREPRESENTTHECURRENTDIS
TRIBUTIONOFFORESTS
5SE OF VEGETATION TYPES PRESENTS PROBLEMS BY POTEN
TIALLYIGNORINGDIFFERENCESBETWEENSPECIESANDNEWASSOCI
ATIONSANDHOWBOTHMAYAFFECTECOSYSTEMSUNDERCLIMATE
CHANGE 4HE ASSUMPTION THAT SPECIES ASSOCIATIONS WILL
REMAINCONSTANTISACONSEQUENCEOFLUMPINGSPECIESSPE
CIlCINFORMATIONINTOAhTYPEv+IRSCHBAUMAND&ISCHLIN
3PECIESASSOCIATIONSHAVEBEENVERYDIFFERENTINTHE
PASTUNDERDIFFERENTCLIMATES$AVISREPORTSPALEO
ECOLOGICAL EVIDENCE OF COMMUNITY TYPES NO LONGER PRES
ENT SUCH AS THE SPRUCEOAK WOODLAND ASSOCIATION 4HE
APPROACH OF USING FUNCTIONAL TYPES (ENDERSON3ELLERS
AND-C'UFlE7OODWARDETALINLIEUOFSPE
CIESINCLIMATECHANGEMODELINGISATTRACTIVEBECAUSETHIS
APPROACH REDUCES THE COMPUTATIONAL COMPLEXITY ASSOCI
ATEDWITHPROJECTINGEACHPLANTSPECIES(OWEVERTHEUSE
OF FUNCTIONAL TYPES OFTEN ASSUMES THAT THESE GROUPINGS
OF SPECIES WILL REMAIN TOGETHER AND RESPOND TO CLIMATE
CHANGE AS A UNIT 4HE USE OF FUNCTIONAL TYPES RAISES THE
ISSUEOFWHETHERhFUNCTIONALTYPESvPRESERVESPECIESDIF
FERENCES3OLBRIG4HEVALUEOFTHESEFUNCTIONALTYPES
IS THAT THEY GROUP SIMILAR PHYSIOLOGICAL AND ECOLOGICAL
ROLES 3OLBRIG 6INTON AND "URKE BUT SPECIES
BEHAVIORALDIFFERENCESMAYBEOVERLOOKED&OREXAMPLEIS
THERATEOFREACHINGEQUILIBRIUMWITHCLIMATETHESAMEFOR
ALLSPECIESWITHINAFUNCTIONALGROUP
3IMILARLY THE AGGREGATION OF DIVERSE TREE SPECIES INTO
FORESTMANAGEMENTTYPESPRESENTSPROBLEMSBYIGNORING
POTENTIALDIFFERENCESBETWEENCOMMERCIALTIMBERSPECIES
ANDHOWCLIMATECHANGEMIGHTALTERWOODlBERPRODUC
TIONFOREXAMPLEHOWVOLUMESMIGHTSHIFTWHENWOOD
DEVELOPSANDTHEQUALITYOFWOODUNDERALTEREDCLIMATE
%XPERIMENTALRESULTSSUGGESTTHATTHERESPONSESTOCLIMATE
CHANGEMIGHTBEGENERAIFNOTSPECIESSPECIlCSEEEARLIER
DISCUSSION
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7ITHIN THE LAST 20! ANALYSIS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE
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TEMPERATEFORESTSlGNOTTHECURRENTDISTRIBUTIONAS
AFFECTEDBYLANDUSE4HUSTHEECOLOGICALVARIABILITYANA
LYZEDUNDERCLIMATECHANGEREPRESENTEDAGREATERECOLOGI
CALAMPLITUDETHANFORESTSCURRENTLYREPRESENT4HESPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF EXISTING FORESTS USING THE FOREST MANAGE
MENT TYPE CLASSIlCATION HAS BEEN RECENTLY MAPPED 7E
USEDTHISSPATIALDISTRIBUTIONTODEVELOPAMAPOFVEGETA
TION CLASSIlED BY THE SAME SYSTEM USED BY THE 6%-!0
MEMBERS4HEFORESTMANAGEMENTTYPEINFORMATIONWAS
AVAILABLE AT THE KM SCALE 7E IDENTIlED A +àCHLER
0.6 TYPE FOR EACH GRID CELL ON THE FOREST MANAGEMENT
MAPBASEDON'ARRISONETALTABLE/NCETHE
+àCHLERTYPEWASASSOCIATEDWITHEACHGRIDCELLWETHEN
USEDTHECLASSIlCATIONGIVENIN6%-!0MEMBERS
TOLINKTHECELLTOA66%'TYPETABLE4HEMAPWAS
THEN RESAMPLED TO THE KM SCALE lG 4HE lNER
SCALEOFTHISMAPALLOWSSMALLERISOLATEDPATCHESOFFOREST
TOREMAINONTHEMAPPARTICULARLYINTHE3OUTHWESTAND
INTHE'REAT0LAINS(OWEVERTHISDISTRIBUTIONCONTRASTS
WITH THE DISTRIBUTION USED IN THE LAST 20!ANALYSIS lG
INTHEDRASTICALLYREDUCEDAREAOFFORESTSINTHEEAST
ERN PART OF THE 5NITED 3TATES AND IN THE PATCHINESS OF
THE FORESTS ACROSS THE 5NITED 3TATES 4HE AREA OF FORESTS
IN THE -IDWEST REGION AND THE -ISSISSIPPI 2IVER VALLEY
DECLINESWHENTHELANDUSEINAGRICULTUREISREMOVED4HE
HOMOGENEITYOFVEGETATIONTYPESISLESSENEDINlGURE
PARTICULARLY FOR THE .EW %NGLAND STATES WHERE BOREAL
TEMPERATE CONIFEROUS AND COOL TEMPERATE MIXED FOREST
TYPESINTERMINGLEINCONTRASTTOTHEUNIFORMITYINlGURE
4HIS REEXAMINATION OF FOREST TYPES lG COULD
BEUSEDASTHEBASISFORANANALYSISOFTHEIMPACTOFCLI
MATECHANGEONFORESTPRODUCTIVITY)TWOULDLIKELYREmECT
THE POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN FOREST PRODUCTIVITY MORE CLOSELY
BECAUSECLIMATESHIFTSINREGIONSOFEXISTINGFORESTSWOULD
BEUSEDASCLIMATEINPUTTOAMODELSUCHAS4%-
0ROJECTING%COSYSTEM
0RODUCTIVITYAT$IFFERENT
3PATIAL3CALES
#LIMATETOPOGRAPHYVEGETATIONANDSOILSINPUTDATA
FORECOLOGICALMODELSUSEDINLARGESCALEINTEGRATEDASSESS
MENTSARETYPICALLYGRIDDEDATTHEDEGREELONGITUDEBY
DEGREELATITUDESCALE#RAMERETAL(EIMANNET
AL+ICKLIGHTERETAL-ELILLOETAL6%-!0
MEMBERS 5SE OF GRIDDED INPUT DATA IMPLICITLY
ASSUMESTHATTHEMEANORDOMINANTSURFACEFEATURESREP
RESENTTHEENTIREGRIDCELL)NHERENTINTHISASSUMPTIONIS
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AND THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF THIS GRIDDED VALUE WHEN
USED IN THE ECOLOGICAL MODELS TO DESCRIBE THE BIOLOGICAL
PROCESSESOPERATINGWITHINTHEGRIDCELL7HILEOPPORTU
NITIESEXISTTOMOVETHEANALYSISOFTHEIMPACTOFCLIMATE
CHANGE ON FORESTS TO A lNER GRID SCALE THIS REDUCTION IN
GRIDSIZEWOULDINCREASETHEPROCESSINGTIMEBYANORDER
OFMAGNITUDE(ENCEITISIMPORTANTTOASSESSTHEUNCER
TAINTYTHATAGGREGATIONOFCLIMATEDATACONTRIBUTESTOTHE
ESTIMATION OF FOREST PRODUCTIVITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
.UNGESSER ET AL USED THE 4ERRESTRIAL %COSYSTEM
-ODEL4%-VERSION-C'UIREETALATOEVALUATE
THEUTILITYOFMOVINGTHECLIMATECHANGEIMPACTANALYSIS
FROMTHEDEGREESCALEUSEDINTHELAST20!ANALYSISTO
THEKMSCALE
4HEEFFECTOFAGGREGATIONONTHEESTIMATIONOFPRODUCTIV
ITYHASBEENSTUDIED.ETPRIMARYPRODUCTION.00ESTI
MATESDIFFEREDBYPERCENTWHENCOARSEGRAINVERSUSlNE
GRAINSOILSDATAWEREUSEDASINPUTDATAFORTHE0N%TMODEL
,ATHROPETAL0IERCEAND2UNNINGOBTAINED
OVERESTIMATESOFUPTOPERCENTIN.00FROMTHE&/2%34
"'#MODELWHENSUBGRIDVARIATIONSINCLIMATETOPOGRA
PHYSOILSANDVEGETATIONWEREAVERAGEDACROSSASERIESOF
GRAINSIZESFROMKMTODEGREE-OSTOFTHISERRORWAS
PRODUCEDBYAVERAGETEMPERATUREWHILEAVERAGETOPOGRA
PHYSOILSANDVEGETATIONTYPESALSOCONTRIBUTED
.UNGESSER ET AL EXAMINED THE IMPACT OF TWO
DIFFERENTSPATIALRESOLUTIONSONTHESIMULATEDFORESTECO
SYSTEMRESPONSESFORABASELINECLIMATEANDTWOCLIMATE
CHANGESCENARIOS4HE4%-MODELUSESSPATIALLYRESOLVED
INFORMATION ON CLIMATE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION MONTHLY
MEANAIRTEMPERATUREANDCLOUDINESSSOILTEXTUREPER
CENTSANDSILTANDCLAYVEGETATIONTYPEANDELEVATION
4HElNERESOLUTIONGRIDCELLSWEREKMINSIZEAND
OFTHESECELLSWERENESTEDWITHINACOARSERESOLUTIONGRID
CELLOFAPPROXIMATELYAHALFDEGREEINSIZEKM4HE
KMsKMRASTERDATAFORCLIMATEMONTHLYPRECIPITA
TIONMONTHLYMEANAIRTEMPERATUREWEREOBTAINEDFROM
.EILSON PERSONAL COMMUNICATION AS DESCRIBED IN $ALY
ETAL-ARKSAND.EILSON&ORTHE
KMsKMINPUTDATATHElNESCALEINPUTDATASETSFOR
CONTINUOUS VARIABLES WERE AVERAGED TO THE KM s KMRESOLUTION!VERAGINGTOTHEKMSCALERESULTSINTHE
SMOOTHING OUT OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE VALUES
ALONGTHEGRADIENTSOFCHANGEANDTHELOSSOFlNERDETAIL
INSOMEAREASlGAND!REASOFlNESCALEPATCHI
NESS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS ARE SMOOTHED OUT AT THE KM
GRID SCALE lG !NNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE VALUES
AREINmUENCEDINAREASWHERETHEREISSUBSTANTIALTEMPER
ATUREVARIABILITYSUCHASAROUNDTHEMOUNTAINOUSAREASIN
THE7ESTlG
4HEHISTORICALRANGEOFTEMPERATEFORESTSWASTHESPA
TIAL EXTENT OF THE .UNGESSER STUDY +àCHLER VEGETATION
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
Figure 3.1—Forest type distribution used in the last RPA analysis (Joyce et al. 1995).
Joyce and Nungesser
56
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
Figure 3.2—VEMAP vegetation classification associated with the current distribution of forests based on USDA Forest Service inventory plots.
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
Joyce and Nungesser
57
Joyce and Nungesser
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
Figure 3.3—Baseline annual precipitation at 50 km scale and 10 km scales.
58
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
Joyce and Nungesser
Figure 3.4—Baseline annual average temperature at 50 km and 10 km scales.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
59
*OYCEAND.UNGESSER
%COSYSTEM0RODUCTIVITYANDTHE)MPACTOF#LIMATE#HANGE
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FEREDFROMTHECORRESPONDINGAVERAGEFORTHEKMGRID
THE TWO CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS WAS COMPUTED IN THE
CELLS BY LESS THAN PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE HISTORIC
SAMEMANNERASTHEBASELINEAGGREGATIONERROR
RANGEOFTEMPERATEFORESTS4HESMALLESTAGGREGATIONERROR
'RIDLEVELRESPONSEOFNETPRIMARYPRODUCTIVITYTOTHE
WASFOUNDGENERALLYTHROUGHOUTTHE%ASTAND3OUTHEAST
CLIMATECHANGESCENARIOSWERECALCULATEDAS
ASWELLASINTHEWESTERNMOUNTAINS2ARELYWEREAGGRE
d OS10 = 100 ∗ NPPOS10 − NPP10 / NPP10 , GATION ERROR DIFFERENCES GREATER THAN PERCENT AT THE
INDIVIDUALGRIDCELLLEVEL4HESELARGERAGGREGATIONERRORS
d OS50 = 100 ∗ ( NPPOS50 − NPP50 ) / NPP50 , OCCURREDAROUNDTHE'REAT,AKESINNORTHERN.EW%NG
LAND AND IN THE 2OCKY -OUNTAINS "Y FOREST TYPE THE
d GQ10 = 100 ∗ NPPGQ10 − NPP10 / NPP10 , and AGGREGATION ERRORS WERE STILL SMALL LESS THAN PERCENT
%STIMATESOF.00DIFFEREDBYLESSTHANG#MINMOST
d GQ50 = 100 ∗ ( NPPGQ50 − NPP50 ) / NPP50 CASES TABLE 4HE LARGEST AGGREGATION ERROR OCCURRED
(
)
(
)
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53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
Joyce and Nungesser
Figure 3.5—Vegetation types mapped at 50 km and 10 km scales.
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
61
Joyce and Nungesser
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
Figure 3.6—Baseline net primary productivity (NPP) at 50 km and 10 km scales.
62
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
%COSYSTEM0RODUCTIVITYANDTHE)MPACTOF#LIMATE#HANGE
WHERE D/3 D/3 D'1 AND D'1 ARE .00 RESPONSES
FOREACHlNED?ANDCOARSED?RESOLUTIONGRIDTOTHE
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LESSTHANPERCENTlG7ITHINEACHCLIMATECHANGE
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ATTHElNERRESOLUTION!GGREGATIONERRORFORALLFORESTSFOR
THE/35CLIMATEnPERCENTWASSIMILARTOTHEERRORFOR
THE'&$,1CLIMATEnPERCENTANDBOTHRESULTSWERE
SIMILARTOTHEAGGREGATIONERROROFTHEBASELINECLIMATEn
PERCENT 4HE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF THESE AGGREGATION ERRORS
WERE SIMILAR BETWEEN THE TWO CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND THE
BASELINEACROSSTHEHISTORICRANGEOFTEMPERATEFORESTS
7ITHINFORESTTYPES.00INCREASEDFROMTOPER
CENT VARYING BY CLIMATE SCENARIO 4HE .00RESPONSE FOR
BOREAL FORESTS AND FORESTED BOREAL WETLANDS WAS TO PERCENT GREATER UNDER THE '&$,1 CLIMATE THAN UNDER
THE/35CLIMATE(OWEVERFORMIXEDTEMPERATEDECID
UOUS AND TEMPERATE FORESTED WETLAND .00 UNDER THE
/35 CLIMATE WAS TO PERCENT GREATER THAN UNDER
THE'&$,1CLIMATE7ITHINEACHCLIMATESCENARIOFOREST
.00RESPONSESATTHECOARSESCALEDIFFEREDBYLESSTHAN
PERCENTFROMTHE.00RESPONSETOCLIMATECHANGEATTHE
lNERRESOLUTIONFORALLFORESTTYPESEXCEPTCONIFERWHICH
DIFFERED BY LESS THAN PERCENT 4HE ERROR IN ALL THREE
CLIMATE SCENARIOS WAS HIGHEST IN THE BOREAL FORESTS AND
FORESTED BOREAL WETLANDS AND PERCENT RESPEC
TIVELY 4HE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF THE AGGREGATION ERROR FOR
THE OTHER FORESTS WAS LESS THAN PERCENT 'EOGRAPHI
CALLYAGGREGATIONERRORFORBOTH/35AND'&$,1ISCON
CENTRATED IN THE SAME AREAS AS THAT OF BASELINE CLIMATE
AROUND THE 'REAT ,AKES IN .EW %NGLAND AND IN THE
2OCKY -OUNTAINS 4HE SMALLEST AGGREGATION ERROR LESS
THAN PERCENT WAS FOUND IN THE 3OUTH AND THE -ID
!TLANTICANAREATHATHADTHEGREATESTDIFFERENCESINTHE
.00RESPONSETOCLIMATECHANGEnTOPERCENT
2ELATIVETOTHEBASELINETHEPERCENTINCREASESORDECREASES
IN .00ARE SIMILAR ACROSS THE lNE AND COARSE RESOLUTIONS
WITHIN A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO BUT DIFFER SIGNIlCANTLY
ACROSS SCENARIOS lG 0ERCENT INCREASES IN .00 WERE
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RESPONSESINTHE3OUTHAND-ID!TLANTICFORESTSWEREDRA
MATICALLYDIFFERENT&ORTHE'&$,1CLIMATETHESOUTHERN
ANDMID!TLANTICFOREST.00DECLINEDUPTOPERCENTREL
ATIVETOTHEBASELINE.00WHEREASUNDERTHE/35CLIMATE
THESEFORESTSINCREASEDIN.00FROMTOPERCENT
4HE KM GRIDCELL RESOLUTION IS MOST RELEVANT TO
STANDLEVEL FOREST MANAGERS !GGREGATION ERROR AT THIS
53$!&OREST3ERVICE'EN4ECH2EP2-23n'42n
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WITHSUBSTANTIALVARIABILITYINAIRTEMPERATURE!GGREGA
TIONERRORISPRIMARILYASSOCIATEDWITHTHEREPRESENTATION
OF A MOSAIC OF FOREST TYPES WITH A SINGLE FOREST TYPE AT
KM RESOLUTION 4HIS SOURCE OF AGGREGATION ERROR CAN
EASILY BE MINIMIZED BY MAKING .00ESTIMATES FOR EACH
FORESTTYPEWITHINAKMGRIDCELLANDAGGREGATINGESTI
MATESBASEDONTHEPROPORTIONOFEACHFORESTTYPEWITHIN
THEGRIDCELL4HISAPPROACHHASBEENUSEDBY"ONAN
AS A MEANS OF REPRESENTING VEGETATIVE HETEROGENEITY FOR
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PERATUREFORALIMITEDNUMBEROFELEVATIONBANDSMAKING
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TRYSPECIlC ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS OF THE IMPACTS OF CLI
MATE CHANGE ON TIMBER RESOURCES &OR EXAMPLE RELATIVE
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FERENTREGIONSWEREUSEDASINPUTSFORTHELAST20!*OYCE
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BOREALWETLANDFORESTSANDUNDERREPRESENTATIONOFMORE
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TOAGGREGATIONERRORTHERELATIVERESPONSESOF.00ATEACH
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PERCENT LOWER RESPONSE FOR THE lNE RESOLUTION /35 AND
'&$,SIMULATIONS 4HE NEGATIVE AGGREGATION ERRORS AND
LOWER RESPONSES FOR TEMPERATE CONIFER FORESTS ARE ASSOCI
ATED WITH THE AVERAGING OF TEMPERATURE IN THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN 2OCKY -OUNTAINS AND IN WESTERN
7ASHINGTON /REGON AND #ALIFORNIA "ECAUSE DIFFERENCES
BETWEENTHERESPONSESOF.00ATDIFFERENTRESOLUTIONSARE
SMALLCOMPAREDWITHTHERESPONSESTODIFFERENTCLIMATESCE
NARIOSTHEYCOULDBEIGNOREDINIMPACTASSESSMENTSTHAT
EVALUATESENSITIVITIESTODIFFERENTCLIMATECHANGESCENARIOS
4HENATIONALRESOLUTIONISMOSTRELEVANTTOGLOBALECO
NOMIC ASSESSMENTS OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
Joyce and Nungesser
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
Figure 3.7—Net primary productivity at 50 km and 10 km scales from the GFDL-Q climate scenario.
64
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
Joyce and Nungesser
Figure 3.8—Forest responses to two climate change scenarios (OSU, GFDL-Q) at 10 km (fine grid) and 50 km (coarse grid) scales.
Ecosystem Productivity and the Impact of Climate Change
USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS–GTR–59. 2000.
65
*OYCEAND.UNGESSER
TIMBERRESOURCES4HERELATIVECLIMATICRESPONSESOF.00
OF HARDWOODS AND SOFTWOODS FOR DIFFERENT REGIONS WERE
USED AS INPUTS FOR A NATIONAL ASSESSMENT 0EREZ'ARCIA
ET AL &OR THE CONTERMINOUS 5NITED 3TATES AGGRE
GATION ERROR WAS PERCENT IN THE BASELINE SIMULATION
PERCENTINTHE/35SIMULATIONANDPERCENTINTHE
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TIALSCALESWEREANDPERCENTLOWERFORTHE/35AND
'&$,SIMULATIONS"ECAUSETHESEDIFFERENCESAREMINUS
CULE IN COMPARISON TO THE NATIONAL .00RESPONSES THEY
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TIVITIESTODIFFERENTCLIMATECHANGESCENARIOS
4HESE RESULTS INDICATE THAT .00 RESPONSES OF 4%-
TO PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ARE INSENSITIVE TO THE RESO
LUTION OF INPUTS BUT THAT AGGREGATION ERROR OF ABSOLUTE
.00ESTIMATESISSENSITIVETOTHERESOLUTIONOFINPUTSFOR
SOME SITUATIONS %XCEPT FOR TRANSITION AREAS AND REGIONS
WITH SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY THESE SIMULA
TIONSINDICATETHATTHEUSEOFORESOLUTIONPROVIDESAN
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ANALYSISINTHISSTUDY
)TISIMPORTANTTORECOGNIZETHATTHECONCLUSIONSINTHIS
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ISTRY MODEL 0IERCE AND 2UNNING USED A DIFFERENT
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OLUTIONS RANGING FROM KM TO KM IN A REGION OF
COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY !T THE COARSEST SCALE THEY FOUND
COARSERESOLUTION .00 WAS OVERESTIMATED BY UP TO PERCENTRELATIVETO.00ESTIMATESATTHElNESTRESOLUTION
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WITHTHOSEOF0IERCEAND2UNNING
"ECAUSEMOSTLARGESCALEBIOGEOCHEMISTRYMODELSARE
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YSIS OF AGGREGATION ERROR WITH SEVERAL BIOGEOCHEMISTRY
MODELS ACROSS A RANGE OF SPATIAL RESOLUTIONS FROM STAND
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SHOULDBEUNDERTAKENINDIFFERENTFORESTREGIONSTODETER
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2UNNINGAREROBUST
&INALLY IT IS IMPORTANT TO VERIFY THE CONCLUSION ABOUT
THE INSENSITIVITY OF .00 RESPONSES TO THE RESOLUTION OF
INPUTSWITHOTHERBIOGEOCHEMISTRYMODELS"YCLARIFYING
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#ONCLUSIONS
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INGWOULDSUGGESTTHATFORESTPRODUCTIVITYMAYINCREASE
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DITIONS OF MOISTURE STRESS AND NUTRIENT AVAILABILITY WILL
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DUCTIVITY FROM CARBON DIOXIDE FERTILIZATION APPEAR TO BE
WITHINTHESAMEMAGNITUDEASPOTENTIALINCREASESINPRO
DUCTIVITY FROM TIMBER MANAGEMENT TREATMENTS 2ElNE
MENTS IN THE ANALYSIS SUCH AS ANALYZING THE IMPACT AT A
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!CKNOWLEDGMENTS
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