ECO 250-04: Economics and Business Statistics I University of North Carolina at Greensboro Spring 2015 Instructor: Jonathan Norris Office: 444 Bryan Email: jlnorri3@uncg.edu Class Times TR 12:30-1:45 p.m.; Bryan 202 Office Hours: Tuesday 2:00-3:00 p.m. Description: Economics 250-04 is an introductory course in numerical and statistical analysis of data. We will cover descriptive statistics, probability, statistical inference, and correlation.1 This course emphasizes problem solving skills, mathematical application in statistics, and some use of Excel for analysis. Student Learning Objectives: The goals for students completing this course are: • calculate and interpret standard measures of central tendency and dispersion; • use probabilities and probability distributions to assess the likelihood of events; • estimate parameters of common discrete and continuous probability distributions; • understand sampling, sampling distributions and the Central Limit Theorem; • calculate and interpret confidence intervals for population means; and • perform hypothesis tests for population means and understand the consequence of errors in tests. Furthermore, this course will continue students’ mathematical training. Prerequisites: Economics 250-04 requires two prerequisites and is very likely to use material from both. • ISM 110 (Business Computing I) and • either MAT 115 or higher Lectures, assignments, and course material will assume the students are proficient with the material covered in those courses. Required Materials: The textbook Business Statistics Plus New MyStatLab with Peason eText–Access Card Package | Edition: 2 by Robert A. Donnelly is availabe at the 1 If time permits, we may touch on regression 1 UNCG bookstore. The ISBN for this textbook is 9780133865004. There is also an option to buy an eText with access card only. Registration for MyStatLab can be completed at http://www.pearsonmylabandmastering.com/northamerica/mystatlab/students/get-registered/index.html. When registering, you can either enter the access code that came with your book or there is an option here to purchase an access code directly. The Course ID number is norris04282. You must enter this during registration to find our course. Homework will be posted and completed through MyStatLab so this is required for the course. We will be utilizing Canvas instead of blackboard this year, so make sure you can log into Canvas and access the course. Canvas can be found by searching UNCG’s website for "Canvas" or at the following link: https://idp.uncg.edu/idp/Authn/UserPassword. Procedures: Class times are Tuesday and Thursday from 12:30-1:45 p.m. with total meeting time per week expected to be two hours and 30 minutes. Lecture attendance is not maintained, however, if the student does attend they are required to participate. Cell phone use or surfing the web is prohibited in class. Students are welcome to use their computers to take notes and for other class purposes but must pay attention, be engaged, and not distracting to other students. Reading assignments are expected to be completed prior to coming to class. This will give you, the student, more out of the lecture. Students are expected to maintain the University’s Student Code of Conduct and the Bryan School’s Faculty and Student Guidlines. Please read these at http://studentconduct.uncg.edu/ and http://www.uncg.edu/bae/faculty_student_guidelines.pdf. Assignments and Grades: There will be two midterm exams and a final exam which is cumulative. Dates for the exams can be found on the schedule (last part of this syllabus). Additionally, there are nine homework assignments which will be worked and submitted via MyStatLab and I have planned for two Excel projects. New homework will often overlap old homework by a day. This allows those who have worked ahead to get a start on the next homework. The Excel projects will allow the student to gain some practical experience with the tools learned in class. More information on these projects will be posted on Canvas. Finally, there is a planned Extra Credit assignment that will be put out before Spring Break. The worth of the Extra Credit assignment has yet to be determined and there will be no other Extra Credit opportunity. The grade breakdown is given below. • Homework Assignments (20%) • Excel Project 1 (10%) • Excel Project 2 (10%) • Exam 1 (10%) • Exam 2 (20%) • Exam 3 (30%) Letter grades will be given on a standard 10 points scale. On due dates, if you need an extension, you may ask, but do not expect to get one. Under certain circumstances I reserve 2 the right to grant an assignment extension. However, remember that it is highly likely you will be denied. Academic Integrity: Students are expected to be familiar with and adhere to the University’s Academic Integrity policy. This can, and should be, read at http://academicintegrity.uncg.edu/. Students may work together on homework and the Excel projects but exams and quizzes will be in class without book, notes, help from other students, or any other material unless I specify something is allowed. Calculators will be allowed for exams but they cannot be utilized from one on a phone. If a student is unsure whether their calculator is acceptable, they should ask prior to the exam. I reserve the right to take your exam and give you a 0 if you are caught using prohibited material on an exam. Tips: This course is within a mathematical and computational discipline. You should not be afraid of math but simply realize that it takes time and effort. I am sure the material here is within your abilities but if you do not give the appropriate effort level then you will struggle. The appropriate effort level may differ from person to person, so you should not judge the time you need based on other people and you should be committed to spending the time you require to understand the material. Results defined and derived early in the semester will continue to be used throughout the course. So, do not allow yourself to get behind and try to cram it all in during the later portions of the semester. This strategy could lead to you failing. Continued practice and study are the best methods for success in this class. An effective study strategy may include: • complete assignments prior to the lectures, • re-reading the textbook after lectures, • copying each lecture’s notes and personally derive the math covered, • if confused come to office hours with questions you have thought much about, • attempting your homework assignments early so you have time to ask questions about what you are confused over, Tentative Schedule Week Date Class Topic and Activity Chapter 1 Tue. Jan. 13, 2015 Introduction and Overview of Stats 1.1-1.3 Thu. Jan. 15, 2015 TBD, Overview of Data and Stats 1.3, 2.1-2.3 Tue. Jan. 20, 2015 Displaying Data 2.2-2.6 Thu. Jan. 22, 2015 Displaying Data(cont.) & Intro to Pr. 2.2-2.6, 4.1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Sat. Jan. 24, 2015 HW1 Due at 12:00 p.m. Tue. Jan. 27, 2015 Intro to Pr., Pr. for Multiple Events 4.1, 4.2 Thu. Jan. 29, 2015 Pr. for Multiple Events & Bayes Theorem 4.2, 4.3 Fri. Jan. 30, 2015 HW2 Due Tue. Feb. 3, 2015 Bayes Theorem and Random Variables 4.3,5.1,6.1 Thu. Feb. 5, 2015 Random Variables & Binomial Dist. 5.1,5.2,6.1 Fri. Feb. 6, 2015 HW3 Due Tue. Feb. 10, 2015 Binomial & Poisson Distributions 5.2,5.3 Thu. Feb. 12, 2015 Normal Probability Distribution & Uniform Dist. 6.2 Fri. Feb. 13, 2015 HW4 Due Tue. Feb. 17, 2015 Uniform Distribution, Sampling, and Review 7.1,7.2,7.3 Thu. Feb. 19, 2015 Exam 1 & Hand Out Excel Project 1 EP1 Due March 6 Tue. Feb. 24, 2015 Sampling & Measures of Central Tendency 7.1,7.2,7.3,3.1 Thu. Feb. 26, 2015 Measures of Variability & Scaled Measures 3.2, 3.3 Tue. Mar. 3, 2015 Scaled Measures & Grouped Data 3.3, 3.4 Thu. Mar. 5, 2015 Measures of Relative Position & Association Btwn Vars 3.5, 3.6 Thu. Mar. 5, 2015 EC Handout Fri. Mar. 6, 2015 Excel Project 1 Due by 6 p.m. & HW5 Due Tue. Mar. 10, 2015 Spring Break Thu. Mar. 12, 2015 Spring Break Tue. Mar. 17, 2015 Sampling Distributions & Properties of Estimators TBD Thu. Mar. 19, 2015 Central Limit Theorem 7.4 Tue. Mar. 24, 2015 Confidence Intervals (C.I.s) 8.1 , 8.2 Thu. Mar. 26, 2015 C.I.s & Proportion 8.1,8.2, 8.4 4 12 13 14 15 16 Fri. Mar. 27, 2015 HW6 Due Tue. Mar. 31, 2015 Sample Size and C.I.s for Finite Populations Thu. Apr. 2, 2015 Catch Up and Review Fri. Apr. 3, 2015 HW7 Due Tue. Apr. 7, 2015 Exam 2 & Hand Out Excel Project 2 EP2 Due April 24 Thu. Apr. 9, 2015 Hypothesis Testing (HT) & Type I & II Errors 9.1, 9.5 Tue. Apr. 14, 2015 HT for Mean, σ known 9.2 Thu. Apr. 16, 2015 HT for Mean, σ unknown 9.3 Sat. Apr. 18, 2015 HW8 Due Tue. Apr. 21, 2015 HT(conti.) 9.1-9.3,9.5, 10.1-10.2 Thu. Apr. 23, 2015 HT Comparing Two Populations 10.1-10.2 Thu. Apr. 23, 2015 Excel Project 2 Due by 6 p.m. & EC Due Sat. Apr. 25, 2015 HW9 Due Tue. Apr. 28, 2015 No Class, Friday Schedule Fri. May 1, 2015 Final Exam 8.5, 8.6 3:30-6:30 p.m. This schedule is subject to change. 5