PBS
07-03-07
With Two Top GOP Candidates Out, Role of Iowa Straw Poll Remains Cloudy
After two major Republican presidential candidates announced they would forgo
Iowa's straw poll in August, political pundits questioned the event's relevance,
while other campaigns seized the opportunity to gain greater visibility by
attending.
First begun as a fundraising scheme by the state party, the straw poll, in which
campaigns bus in supporters, buy tickets to the event and stage ornate parties,
has emerged as an early test of organizational strength of Republican candidates
ahead of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, currently scheduled for Jan. 14,
2008.
In one of the costliest straw polls in 1999, then Gov. George W. Bush and
millionaire publisher Steve Forbes spent $2 million each trying to win the
scientifically meaningless poll. Gov. Bush scored the victory on the way to the
nomination and presidency.
This year's straw poll, held in Ames on August 11, seemed headed for an even
higher price tag. That is, until two candidates bowed out. Citing the front-loaded
primary calendar adding larger and more expensive states into the campaigns'
thinking, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani decided to skip the straw poll
and focus resources on the January caucuses, his campaign announced June 6.
The same day, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said the poll would be meaningless
and that he would also skip the event.
The announcements sparked a flurry of analysts to judge the straw poll's
significance on the Republican nomination. Stuart Rothenberg of The
Rothenberg Political Report declared in a column, "Iowa Straw Poll: Over Long
Before It Really Began." Even the Des Moines Register, the state's largest
newspaper, published a story with the headline, "Straw poll no-shows zap Iowa's
relevance, some fear."
Not everyone, however, is convinced the event no longer matters. Steffen
Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University in Ames, said
the straw poll will still serve as an indicator of how Iowa Republican activists are
lining up with the candidates that do participate.
And not all the candidates have pulled out. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney, Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee,
Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., Rep. Ron Paul, RTex., former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, and Illinois businessman John
Cox have all pledged to participate, and may be joined by former Sen. Fred
Thompson, R-Tenn., whose speculated entry into the GOP field could shake up
the top tier.
While he has neither officially declared his candidacy nor committed to the straw
poll, Fred Thompson's advisers have talked to party leaders in Iowa about the
process, according to Mary Tiffany, communications director for the Republican
Party of Iowa. His presence in the straw poll could be a key factor in the amount
of attention given to the event.
The national media, with little else to cover as the campaign cycle slows in
August, will still report on the straw poll, Schmidt expects. Schmidt says the likely
media attention could give a second-tier candidate a chance to emerge from
Ames with a major boost to their chances.
According to analysts, as the straw poll line-up currently stands, Huckabee and
Brownback have the potential to galvanize church-related groups in Iowa with
their long records on issues important to social conservatives, while Tancredo
could stir up support among Iowans who agree with his hard-line stance on
immigration policy.
The Huckabee campaign has moved staff up to Iowa from Little Rock in
preparation for the straw poll, which has "been a focus of our campaign ever
since we announced," said press secretary Alice Stewart.
"We are really ramping up our efforts there in Iowa and organizing groups in all
the counties to mobilize and go out and attract Huckabee supporters," Stewart
said.
Brownback also plans to compete "very aggressively" in the straw poll, and
Iowans on campaign trail are appreciative of that commitment, said John Rankin,
Brownback's Iowa communications director.
"You can't win the presidency by skipping Iowa, and Sen. Brownback doesn't
think you can win Iowa by skipping Ames," Rankin said.
The Ames straw poll has winnowed the field in past election cycles. The 1999
event that saw the poll give a boost to Mr. Bush also killed the presidential
aspirations of Lamar Alexander, who dropped out of the race shortly after a sixth
place finish in the straw poll.
The straw poll was a less accurate predictor in 1995. Phil Gramm and Bob Dole
tied for first, but Gramm would later finish fifth in the caucuses. Dole won the
1996 Iowa caucuses, while Pat Buchanan, who placed third in the summer's
straw poll, came in second.
Surprises have also emerged from the straw poll, such as Christian broadcaster
Pat Robertson's win over Bob Dole in 1987. Robertson would come in second to
Dole in the 1988 caucuses, while eventual nominee and future President George
H.W. Bush would come in third.
Tiffany at the Republican Party of Iowa said the state's party leaders feel
confident that the straw poll will garner just as much media coverage and draw
just as many participants -- 35,000 to 40,000 are expected -- as in past years.
The event raised roughly $1 million for the party in 1999, and this year's profits
will go towards the January caucuses, as well as future party activities such as
the Ronald Reagan Dinner and upcoming congressional races.
Still, disappointment over Giuliani and McCain's absence is already having an
impact on activists. A June 19 poll of previous Iowa caucus participants by Eagle
Media Group LLP in Des Moines found that 51 percent were less likely to support
Giuliani or McCain given their decision to skip the straw poll.
"I think the campaigns need to have an understanding of the political process
regardless of what anyone wants to say. The straw poll is part of the grassroots
organization that goes on this state that's different from other states," Tiffany
said.