Buffalo News, NY
02-11-07
Giuliani presidential race picks up steam
After a slow start, former New York City mayor sits on top of key Republican
primary polls
By JERRY ZREMSKI
News Washington Bureau Chief
WASHINGTON A year ago, top Republicans had two questions about former
New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and his presidential prospects.
Where is he?
And how can he win the nomination of a party filled with conservative Christians?
But after a slow start, Giuliani has begun campaigning, and it's now clear where
he is: at the top of the polls.
And because of shifts in the political winds, more political pros are saying he
could end up being the GOP candidate.
"If Giuliani wins in New Hampshire, I think he wins the nomination," said Andy
Smith, a pollster at the University of New Hampshire who recently conducted a
poll showing "America's mayor" in a statistical tie for the lead in the state that
hosts the first primary.
Giuliani is ahead in other key states like Iowa, California and New Jersey, and
political pundits say it's not just because of the name recognition he won for his
leadership of New York City after 9/11.
It's because several things have happened, by design and chance, that benefit
Giuliani.
After sitting out the earliest part of the presidential politicking, Giuliani
campaigned hard for Republican candidates last fall and it did him some good.
"The mayor was down here many times during the campaign," said Katon
Dawson, chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. "And I would say the
mayor is very popular in South Carolina right now."
Similarly, Giuliani seems to have helped himself with his first campaign
appearance in New Hampshire two weeks ago. Smith's poll, taken just after
Giuliani's visit, showed the mayor with 27 percent, a point behind Sen. John
McCain, the Arizona Republican who won New Hampshire's GOP primary in
2000.
"Giuliani is in an excellent position given that he's never run for office outside his
own state before," Smith said.
He's in a strong position elsewhere, in part because two well-known would-be
candidates with strong ties to the Christian right - former Senate Majority Leader
Bill Frist and former Sen. George Allen, R-Va. imploded politically last year.
That leaves the Christian right without an obvious choice among the candidates
pundits see as the major players: Giuliani, McCain and former Massachusetts
Gov. Mitt Romney.
Giuliani's support of abortion rights and gay rights would seem to make him
anathema to Christian conservatives but so might McCain's legendary comment
that evangelical leaders are "agents of intolerance," and Romney's past support
of gay rights.
Facing that political landscape, some Republicans are thinking differently in the
key first-caucus state of Iowa, said Steffen Schmidt, a political scientist at
Iowa State University. He said he recently met with a key player in the state
GOP, which has long been dominated by the Christian right, only to hear positive
comments about Giuliani.
"He's a war hero in that he was the mayor of the entire country after 9/11, and
that gives him a superstar status," Schmidt said. "He's also attractive because
people think he was a pretty good mayor and would be a pretty good manager.
And that means they're more willing to overlook all the stains - the divorces, the
fact that he's pro-gay rights."
While a lesser-known candidate like Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback or former
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee could become the social conservatives' candidate
of choice, their lack of name recognition may doom their candidacies in what's
likely to be a very short race to the nomination.
The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are expected to be held in
January 2008, and will be quickly followed by the South Carolina primary on Feb.
2.
Then comes what's shaping up as a very early Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when
California, Florida, New Jersey and Illinois are likely to hold their primaries. That
bodes well for Giuliani because those states have disproportionate numbers of
moderate Republicans, Schmidt said.
Fred Siegel, author of "Prince of the City," a flattering biography of the former
mayor, agreed.
"Half the delegates will be selected before Feb. 8, and that gives someone with
enormous name recognition a huge edge," Siegel said.
Then again, many inside-the-beltway pundits say Giuliani's liberal stances on
social issues will doom him with the GOP base. And both Dawson and Steve
Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance, indicated Giuliani still has
something to prove to social conservatives.
"There is still a lot of concern" about Giuliani's past stances, Scheffler said.
Nevertheless, Giuliani's supporters stress that the mayor would be the party's
strongest candidate in the November election.
Portraying himself as a successful mayor who made government work and who
could be trusted to do the same in Washington and overseas Giuliani appears to
be trying to move beyond the legacy of the unpopular Republican incumbent,
President Bush.
And while some polls show Democratic candidates such as Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton beating most Republicans at this point, Giuliani's supporters think he is so
popular that he could even compete in strongly Democratic states like New York,
New Jersey and California.
"He's a strong leader, a no-nonsense leader," said Buffalo businessman Anthony
Gioia, one of Giuliani's top local supporters. "But what also makes him
compelling is his electability. If he's the nominee, we get to play in the
Democrats' sandbox."
News Washington Bureau assistant Andrew Vanacore contributed to this report.
e-mail: jzremski@buffnews.com