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Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 TASK 6.1.1: LINEAR VS. EXPONENTIAL MODELS Solutions Who will win the income race? Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Men 9521 10038 11148 12088 12786 13821 14732 15726 16882 18711 20297 21689 22857 23891 25497 26365 27335 28313 28180 29556 29987 30874 31408 Women 5616 5872 6331 6791 7370 8117 8728 9257 10121 11071 12156 13259 14477 15292 16169 17124 17675 18531 18509 19752 20556 21272 22141 US Census, 1995 1. Build scatterplots with your calculator, setting the years 1970 – 1992 as 0 – 22. Briefly discuss the data. Instruct participants to enter the data into their graphing calculators and create two scatterplots, men’s median income over time and women’s median income over time. men women December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. 1 Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 2 a. What makes data linear? Data fits a linear model if it has a constant rate of change. b. Find successive differences. Successive differences do not yield exactly a constant rate of change. Take an average of the differences to find an average rate of change. An average of the differences for men’s income is $995 and for women’s income is $751. The assumption here is to find first successive differences. Later in the institute we find second and third successive differences and discuss their implications. c. Use the differences to find a reasonable linear model for each scatter plot. Using the starting income for the men of $9521 and an average rate of change of 995, a linear model is m ( x ) = 9521 + 995x , where x represent years and m(x) gives median salary. Then we adjusted the parameters to get about as many points on top of the scatter plot as underneath the scatter plot. A guess and check trend line is m ( x ) = 8750 + 1100x . (A calculator regression is m ( x ) = 9015 + 1084x .) Using the starting income for the women of $5616 and an average rate of change of 751, a linear model is w ( x ) = 5616 + 751x , where x represent years and w(x) gives median salary. Then we adjusted the parameters to get about as many points on top of the scatter plot as underneath the scatter plot. A guess and check trend line is w ( x ) = 4000 + 850x . (A calculator regression is w ( x ) = 803 + 4475x .) d. Use your models to predict the earnings in the year 2000. m ( 30 ) = 41, 750 and w ( 30 ) = 29, 500 . The answers are based on the guess and check trend lines above. 2. What makes a function exponential? a. Fill in the table. Participants fill in the second column by evaluating y = 3! 2 x . December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. 3 Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 b. Find successive differences in the third column. Participants fill in the third column with differences. Again here we assume that participants are finding first differences. c. Find successive quotients in the fourth column. Participants fill in the fourth column with first consecutive quotients. Their filled-in table: x y = 3! 2 x 3 6 12 24 48 96 0 1 2 3 4 5 Differences Quotients 3 6 12 24 48 2 2 2 2 2 d. Where does the 3 in y = 3! 2 x appear in the table? The value at x=0 is 3. e. Where does the 2 from y = 3! 2 x appear in the table? The common quotient is 2. 3. Turn off your linear equations for the income data. Do the following. a. Take successive quotients and find the percent increase for each year. The average quotient for the men’s income data is about 1.056. The average quotient for the women’s income data is about 1.064. b. Use the quotients to find reasonable exponential models. Using the starting income for the men of $9521 and an average quotient of 1.056, an exponential model is m x = 9521 1.056 x . A calculator regression is m x = 10498 1.058x . Using the () () starting income for the women of $5616 and an average quotient of 1.064, an exponential model is w x = 5616 1.064 x . A calculator regression is () () x w x = 5883 1.068 . c. Use your models to predict the earnings in the year 2000.Using the calculator regression models we found predicted earnings for the year 2000, m 30 = 57,320 ( ) December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 4 ( ) and w 30 = 42,512 . Compare these to the predicted earnings with the linear models ( ) ( ) which were m 30 = 41,750 and w 30 = 29,500 . 4. Compare the two models: linear and exponential. a. Using the linear model, will women’s earnings ever catch up with men’s? Why or why not? • Compare the men’s and women’s rates of change (slope). Which is greater? The men’s income slope is higher. • What does that mean for the predictions using the linear models? Using linear models, men’s incomes are increasing faster than women’s. If the trend continues, women’s incomes will never catch men’s incomes. b. Using the exponential models, will women’s earnings ever catch up with men’s? Why or why not? • Compare the quotients for the men’s and women’s incomes. Which is greater? The quotient of the women’s income is higher. • What does that mean for the predictions using the exponential models? Using exponential models, women’s incomes are increasing faster than men’s. If the trend continues, women’s incomes will eventually catch and surpass men’s incomes. c. Which do you think makes more sense? Why? Answers will vary. Note that often the government reports data using percent increases and decreases. 5. Find the percentage of women’s median income to men’s median income. Create a scatter plot of this percentage versus years. Based on this graph, will women’s earnings ever catch up with men’s? Why or why not? [-2, 22] [-0.1, 1] December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 5 A linear model of the data is y = .56 + .0059x . • • What are the units of the slope? The ratio of men’s income to women’s income per year. Based on this model, how long will it take for women’s median income to reach men’s median income? 76 years. When x = 76, y ≈ 1, which means the incomes are approximately the same. Math notes A strength of this task is that participants look at different mathematical models for the same data and compare the two. Teaching notes Briefly discuss the data. Instruct participants to enter the data into their graphing calculators and create two scatter plots, men’s median income over time and women’s median income over time. Participants should work in groups and compare their conclusions to Exercise 1. In Exercise 2, if they need help prompt students when working on 2b with questions such as “Do you think a linear model will describe this data?” and expect answers such as “No, because the consecutive differences are not constant.” As they work on 2c, the leader may prompt with questions such as “What seems to be true about successive quotients for exponentials?” and expect answers such as “it appears the quotients are constant.” December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 TASK 6.1.1: LINEAR VS. EXPONENTIAL MODELS Who will win the income race? Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Men 9521 10038 11148 12088 12786 13821 14732 15726 16882 18711 20297 21689 22857 23891 25497 26365 27335 28313 28180 29556 29987 30874 31408 Women 5616 5872 6331 6791 7370 8117 8728 9257 10121 11071 12156 13259 14477 15292 16169 17124 17675 18531 18509 19752 20556 21272 22141 US Census, 1995 1. Build scatterplots with your calculator, setting the years 1970 – 1992 as 0 – 22. a. What makes data linear? b. Find successive differences. c. Use the differences to find a reasonable linear model for each scatter plot. December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. 6 Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 7 d. Use your models to predict the earnings in the year 2000. 2. What makes a function exponential? a. Fill in the table. x y = 3 ! 2x 0 1 2 3 4 5 b. Find successive differences in the third column. c. Find successive quotients in the fourth column. d. Where does the 3 in y = 3! 2 x appear in the table? e. Where does the 2 from y = 3! 2 x appear in the table? 3. Turn off your linear equations for the income data. Do the following. a. Take successive quotients and find the percent increase for each year. b. Use the quotients to find reasonable exponential models. c. Use your models to predict the earnings in the year 2000. 4. Compare the two models: linear and exponential. a. Using the linear model, will women’s earnings ever catch up with men’s? Why or why not? b. Using the exponential models, will women’s earnings ever catch up with men’s? Why or why not? c. Which do you think makes more sense? Why? December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. Algebra II: Strand 6. Exponentials and Logarithms; Topic 1. Characteristics of Exponentials and Logarithms; Task 6.1.1 5. Find the percentage of women’s median income to men’s median income. Create a scatter plot of this percentage versus years. Based on this graph, will women’s earnings ever catch up with men’s? Why or why not? December 16, 2004. Ensuring Teacher Quality: Algebra II, produced by the Charles A. Dana Center at The University of Texas at Austin for the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. 8