The research of rural energy consumption in China
Based on the survey of thirty villages in china
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Rui Zhang
Dr. Shi Qinghua
Antai College of Economics and Management, SJTU
May 07,2013
Content
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
•
•
•
•
The samples
The lifestyle
The energy consumption
The energy transition
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samples
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• Fixed Tracking Observation Points
Office
• The survey in 2010 and 2011
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Shanxi province
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• Shanxi is located on a plateau made up of
higher ground to the east (Taihang Mountains)
and the west (Lüliang Mountains) and a series
of valleys in the center through which the Fen
River runs. The highest peak is Mount Wutai
(Wutai Shan) in northeastern. and, Mount Hua
is to the southwest.
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Zhejiang province
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•
Zhejiang consists mostly of hills, which account
for about 70% of its total area. Valleys and plains
are found along the coastline and rivers. There
are over three thousand islands along the
rugged coastline of Zhejiang.
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Guizhou province
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• Guizhou is situated on the eastern part of
Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in southwest China.
On this land of towering mountains and deep
valleys, there are over 300 basins which are
wide in the middle and narrow in both ends.
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Sample region in China
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Shanxi
Zhejiang
Guizhou
高
较高
台湾岛
中
海南岛
较低
南
海
低
无数据
南海诸岛
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Samples
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SX
11.3
377
3427
ZJ
17.4
1728
5180
GZ
14.6
1010
3798
Proportion of rural
population (%)
54
42
70
GDP rank
21
4
26
Electricity Consumption
(100 million kwh)
1460
2821
835
Per Capita Net Income of
Rural HH (yuan)
4736
11302
3472
Temperature(℃)
Precipitation(mm)
Population(10 thousand)
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12 villages in Shangxi
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10 villages in Zhejiang
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10 villages in Guizhou
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Sample of househould
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total
ASOM MANAGEMENT
& BUSINESS
SCHOOL
Num
GZ
Num
SX
Num
ZJ
应县大临河乡小临
河村
灵丘县狼牙沟乡道
八村
定襄县神山乡镇安
寨村
太谷县水秀乡武家
庄村
平定县锁簧镇立壁
村
柳林县成家庄镇李
家凹村
乡宁县城关镇西廒
村
临猗县城关镇黄斗
景村
平顺县中五井乡小
赛村
高平市唐庄乡谷口
村
101
临安县石门乡龙上村
54
盘县刘官镇水洞村
80
104
湖州市永丰村
50
80
89
嘉兴市余北村
50
81
绍兴市华金乡西蜀阜村
50
100
鄞州区钟公庙乡庙堰村
50
100
温岭市横河乡新民村
50
100
瑞安市金后村
50
126
普陀区鹁鸪门村
50
72
丽水市河边村
50
80
金华县石板堰村
50
罗甸县八总乡平初
村
安龙县龙广镇小场
坝村
原平坝县马场镇马
场村
普定县城关镇褚家
山村
铜仁市碧江区灯塔
村
遵义县三合镇长青
村
纳雍县沙包乡包包
寨村
贵阳市乌当区麦穰
村
剑河县柳川镇镇江
村
953
504
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80
80
80
80
80
79
79
79
797
12
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Lifestyle
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Life style
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Type of
housing(%)
House size(s.m)
SX
ZJ
GZ
Reinforced concrete
Building
6.6
81.2
42.8
Reinforced concrete
Bungalow
7.9
2.0
35.5
Reinforced concrete Cave
0.7
0.0
2.8
Brick and wood Bungalow
58.9
7.0
16.4
Brick and wood Cave
21.2
0.0
1.5
Construction area
124.0
223.3
162.7
Use of the area
107.2
218.2
148.3
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Life style
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Water(%)
Health
approach(%)
Lighting
own deep well
village deep well
own shallow well
spring water
tape water
own outside toilet
SX
40.0
11.5
6.1
2.1
42.7
60.3
ZJ
8.5
20.6
4.0
0.5
77.5
1.3
GZ
1.0
14.1
6.9
8.3
72.1
2.0
own No open-air toilet
38.1
7.5
88.7
own indoor toilet
Outside public toilets
lights
lamps
0.5
1.2
99.6
0.4
86.5
4.0
100.0
0.0
10.2
0.8
99.5
0.5
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electrical appliances
TV
coo
ker
saw blow
er
Air
con
Poor 105
21
4
56
7
7
53
49
2
6
3
0.4
2.8
Low 114
44
5
71
20
11
66
91
5
9
4
1.4
6.0
High 125
53
16
74
29
22
77
99
11
14
8
0.7
5.8
rich
89
88
87
50
48
103
233
44
36
5
1.2
22.9
194
was heat Elec
hing er
car
Fan com pum grin
pute
p
der
Refr
iger
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Electri-- TV
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Electri ---washing
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Electri --- refrigerator
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Oil -- Car
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Oil --- motor bicycle
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Income
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Income
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
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ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
income
（yuan）
residence
（per hh）
landsize
（mu）
Poor
low
high
rich
total
10818
24402
41338
180764
61196
(4377)
(4071)
(7000)
(428544)
(219620)
2.77
3.66
3.86
4.09
3.59
(1.47)
(1.41)
(1.59)
(1.48)
(1.57)
5.67
5.31
4.65
2.71
4.59
(6.31)
(5.84)
(4.98)
(3.75)
(5.43)
Note:17250, 31500, 55590 are the dividing points.
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ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Energy
consumption
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ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Energy usage(%)
Firewood
Coal
LPG
Oil
SX
45.6
72.3
20.1
ZJ
28.4
7.6
GZ
32.9
Total
37.3
electri
Ngas
Bgas
62.6
0.0
1.8
85.0
47.2
7.5
0.2
60.9
6.3
43.7
0.5
10.2
54.3
30.0
52.5
1.9
4.4
Total
Energy consumption（kgce）
SX
ZJ
GZ
Total
252
1180
13
280
272
0
32
2029
(403)
(988)
(30)
(1650)
(268)
(0)
(272)
(2040)
188
9883
98
1480
4247
7
1
15905
(400)
(162130)
(78)
(10064)
(46470)
(39)
(23)
(187157)
430
634
5
377
675
1
156
2279
(1187)
(839)
(21)
(2645)
(3856)
(8.7)
(575)
(4934)
301
2933
29
583
1303
2
69
5220
(782)
(76703)
(57)
(5145)
(22134)
(19)
(390)
(88676)
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ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Energy usage(%)
Firewood
Coal
LPG
Poor
46.2
64.8
Low
44.0
High
Rich
elec
oil
Ngas
Bgas
14.7
5.6
0.4
2.2
60.8
19.2
16.6
0.4
3.9
35.1
62.3
27.6
21.1
1.3
6.3
28.0
32.5
56.5
12.1
5.8
5.6
Energy consumption（kgce）
Poor
Low
High
Rich
768
1244
56
268
258
34
1303
(1087)
(698)
(29)
(150)
(249)
(13)
(638)
803
1348
79
213
613
52
1924
(1083)
(739)
(47)
(186)
(4583)
(40)
(1140)
767
1557
82
835
463
99
1397
(986)
(941)
(50)
(4158)
(402)
(119)
(923)
885
29822
122
4298
4188
101
1657
(986)
(941)
(50)
(4158)
(402)
(119)
(923)
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ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
The energy transition
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Energy Transiton
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
• First, is it occurring and how rapidly?
• Second, why is it occurring, or not?
• Third, what interests have policymakers
in affecting the rate and scale of the
transition; and how can they do ?
--------Gerald Leach(1992)
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Energy Ladder
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
The ladder has different rungs:
Gas, Electricity is the top of the ladder
Coal, LPG
Firewood is the bottom of the ladder
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Energy stacking
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
New cooking technologies and fuels are
added, but even the most traditional
systems are rarely abandoned.
-----------Masera(2000)
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Wave transition
0.003
Life of Energy useage
0.000
Use of Energy
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
0
200
400
600
800
0.003
transition of Energy
0.000
Use of Energy
Income
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Income
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32
Firewood consumption—floor effect
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Firew(ols)
lnincome
lnincome2
Hhsize
Landsize
province
_cons
N
(1)
-235.2
(-0.50)
9.312
(0.42)
-18.65
(-0.76)
24.77***
(3.94)
25.67***
(9.53)
1385.7
(0.57)
822
(poor)
-30.39
(-0.22)
(low)
-330.6
(-0.82)
(high)
-35.89
(-0.09)
(rich)
-85.34
(-0.54)
-31.88
(-0.69)
32.45**
(3.32)
26.13***
(5.25)
284.4
(0.24)
248
9.881
(0.22)
22.55*
(2.06)
26.86***
(6.00)
3153.3
(0.77)
236
-15.29
(-0.37)
18.79
(1.39)
21.49***
(4.37)
425.1
(0.10)
188
-43.02
(-0.57)
6.669
(0.27)
28.20**
(2.87)
1040.3
(0.54)
150
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Firewood consumption—floor effect
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Fw(logit)
(1)
(poor)
(low)
(high)
(rich)
lnincome
-0.173***
0.00473
-0.924
-1.044
0.0607
(-3.40)
(0.03)
(-1.72)
(-1.77)
(0.44)
0.0343
0.120
-0.0285
-0.0462
0.132
(1.05)
(1.77)
(-0.42)
(-0.73)
(1.95)
0.126***
0.129***
0.133***
0.143***
0.0946***
(10.44)
(5.50)
(5.45)
(5.60)
(3.46)
hhsize
landsize
province
_cons
N
-0.000456 0.000928
0.00297
-0.00300 -0.000520
(-0.14)
(0.15)
(0.51)
(-0.48)
(-0.06)
0.618
-1.248
8.412
10.06
-2.458
(1.22)
(-0.93)
(1.56)
(1.61)
(-1.46)
2145
537
536
536
536
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34
Coal consumption---increasing
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Total
Coal consumption (ols)
poor
Low
hight
rich
7.534e+00**
*
3.962e-01
7.451e+00***
7.171e+00***
7.187e+00***
8.005e-02
1.205e-01
2.227e-01
7.635e+00**
*
2.620e-01
8.585e-07***
2.513e-05***
1.922e-05*
1.688e-06
8.292e-07***
8.011e-08
6.831e-06
8.055e-06
5.070e-06
1.295e-07
4.308e-02***
1.188e-02
-3.824e-03
5.087e-02*
3.729e-02
1.146e-02
1.522e-02
2.105e-02
2.150e-02
5.507e-02
-9.001e-04a
-1.297e-03*
-4.348e-04
-1.109e-03
-9.250e-04
4.689e-04
6.345e-04
7.128e-04
8.655e-04
2.143e-03
-1.757e-02***
-1.602e02***
-2.089e02***
-2.014e02***
-1.833e-02**
1.205e-03
1.886e-03
1.918e-03
2.121e-03
5.495e-03
N
1182
348
326
334
174
R square
0.2262
0.2065
0.3057
0.2517
0.2417
Con
Lninco
hhsize
landsize
province
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35
Electricity—ceiling effect
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Total
Con
4.861e+00***
Electricy consumption (ols)
poor
Low
hight
rich
4.138e+00*
**
1.302e-01
4.587e+00*
**
2.298e-01
4.587e+00*
**
2.475e-01
6.165e+00*
**
2.046e-01
3.559e05***
7.288e-06
1.687e-05*
7.997e-06
1.988e05***
4.680e-06
1.146e06***
1.012e-07
4.921e-02***
4.543e-02**
1.607e-02
-2.051e-02
9.114e-03
1.113e-02
1.711e-02
2.126e-02
1.941e-02
2.966e-02
9.067e-04*
6.108e-04
1.508e-03*
1.830e-03*
2.433e-03*
4.492e-04
6.975e-04
7.543e-04
7.886e-04
1.199e-03
1.591e-02***
1.650e02***
1.997e-03
1.004e02***
2.116e-03
-1.624e-03
1.243e-03
1.944e02***
2.060e-03
N
2105
523
532
521
526
R square
0.2748
0.0682
0.202
7.657e-02
Lninco
3.365e-06***
1.671e-07
Lninco
^2
-2.926e-13***
2.372e-14
Hhsize
Landsize
Province
0.2283
0.1331
上海交通大学安泰管理学院
3.855e-03
36
The energy transition
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Energy usage（%）
poor
low
high
rich
SX
Moden
2.84
3.03
2.19
3.59
3.92
2.56
5.17
11.66
F
3.40
4.29
3.03
1.45
3.36
0.65
8.16
12.17
C
9.18
8.86
9.88
4.62
15.43
0.05
17.06
32.54
F+C
5.87
4.06
2.98
1.21
11.10
0.00
3.03
14.13
L
1.03
1.17
2.70
8.02
0.42
12.31
0.19
12.91
F+L
1.54
1.26
1.54
3.82
2.33
5.69
0.14
8.16
C+L
0.42
0.89
1.49
1.77
1.54
1.31
1.72
4.57
F+C+L
0.70
1.45
1.21
0.51
3.36
0.23
0.28
3.87
Total
24.99
24.99
25.03
24.99
41.45
22.80
35.76
100.00
上海交通大学安泰管理学院
ZJ
GZ
total
37
The energy transition
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Firew(tobit)
lnincome
Hhsize
Landsize
province
ncoal
nlpg
_cons
sigma _c
N
(1)
-222.7***
(-5.14)
19.06
(0.74)
95.52***
(12.39)
10.10***
(3.70)
-905.8***
(-10.59)
53.54
(0.57)
1338.0**
(3.19)
1437.8***
(37.17)
2145
(2)
-194.5***
(-4.53)
35.30
(1.38)
83.90***
(11.94)
(sx)
-105.1***
(-3.75)
-22.76
(-1.57)
49.20***
(14.39)
(zj)
-110.7
(-1.90)
79.44
(1.86)
161.0***
(4.35)
(gz)
-178.6
(-1.09)
-12.14
(-0.14)
95.66
(1.81)
-947.2***
(-10.98)
-42.40
(-0.47)
1401.6***
(3.31)
1454.0***
(37.23)
2145
-198.8***
(-3.75)
345.9***
(6.12)
790.1**
(3.02)
590.4***
(26.93)
889
-421.8
(-1.59)
214.9
(1.20)
84.57
(0.14)
994.7***
(14.43)
489
-2559.8***
(-10.31)
-281.4
(-0.55)
1713.6
(1.09)
2378.7***
(20.44)
767
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38
The energy transition
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Coal(tobit)
lnincome
Hhsize
Landsize
Province
nfirewood
nlpg
_cons
sigma _c
N
(1)
1279.8
(0.40)
-2989.3
(-1.62)
3290.9***
(5.94)
-319.1
(-1.80)
-36930.5***
(-6.08)
-40791.6***
(-5.88)
-29895.0
(-0.98)
107611.1***
(48.08)
2145
(2)
218.8
(0.07)
-3498.1
(-1.91)
3700.9***
(7.31)
(sx)
360.1***
(6.85)
14.65
(0.55)
11.70
(1.76)
(zj)
99948.2
(1.59)
-32763.6
(-0.68)
-126591.9
(-1.78)
(gz)
176.2**
(2.75)
-108.6**
(-3.14)
40.13
(1.93)
-36601.4***
(-6.03)
-38543.9***
(-5.66)
-29866.1
(-0.98)
107670.3***
(48.07)
2145
-311.1***
(-3.44)
-243.0*
(-2.19)
-2419.1***
(-4.85)
1170.1***
(34.35)
889
-248786.9
(-1.41)
618328.0*
(1.99)
-2550531**
(-3.30)
713060.4***
(7.64)
489
-963.2***
(-8.87)
-190.8
(-1.07)
-923.0
(-1.47)
1171.8***
(28.64)
767
上海交通大学安泰管理学院
39
The natural gas
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
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Only one villige has the natural gas
70% usage (35/50hh)
No firewood ,no coal ,only 3 has LPG
The income is very high(119762.6 yuan)
上海交通大学安泰管理学院
40
ASOM MANAGEMENT & BUSINESS SCHOOL
Thank you
Any comment is welcome
上海交通大学安泰管理学院
41