What is the
Forest Service
Response to
Climate
Change?
Elizabeth Reinhardt
Responding to climate change
The Forest Service mission: “to sustain the health,
diversity, and productivity of America’s forests and
grasslands for the benefit of present and future
generations.”
Our Nation’s forests and grasslands: Many Values
Critical ecological and socio-economic infrastructure
Fuelwood
Nonwood
forest
products
Carbon
storage
Biodiversity
Climate
regulation
Resource
Lumber
Water
protection
Soil
protection
Ecological
Health
protection
Biospheric
Services
from
forests
and
grasslands
Spiritual
Amenities
Cultural
Social
Sports
(e.g.
fishing)
Ecotourism
Historical
Recreation
Thomas Moran
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Our Nation’s forests and grasslands : Many
Threats
Ecosystems are dynamic, but dynamics are changing
Air / water
pollution
Altered
wildfire
regime
Land
conversion
Fragmen
tation
Resource
use /
extraction
Services
from forests
and
grasslands
Climate
change
Insects &
disease
Invasive
species
NPS
Threats: Wildland Fires
Acres Burned in the 11 Western States
7
(Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)
Million acres
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
USFS Forest Health Protection 2009
Climate change
interactions
Dry Winters
+
Warm Springs
↓
Early Snowmelt
↓
Drier Soils in Early
Summer
↓
Longer Dry Season
↓
Drier Vegetation
↓
More Fires
Threats: Invasive Species
Climate change
interactions
Dry Winters
+
Warm Springs
↓
Native vegetation
under stress
↓
Increased spread of
invasives
↓
Increased fine fuels
↓
Increased fire
↓
More Invasives
Responding to climate change
“No action in the face of climate change is a decision that may
carry the greatest risk.” –Western Governors’ Association
You can’t steer the
bicycle unless you
get it moving.
WGA 2008 “Western Wildlife Habitat Council Established”
USFS Strategy:
Climate Change Roadmap
USFS Strategy: Assess
•RPA Assessments—climate change scenarios
•LANDFIRE—fuel and fire data
•Carbon OnLine Estimator (COLE)—forest carbon estimates
•Watershed Condition Framework—15,000 forested watersheds
•Watershed Vulnerability Assessment— 11 pilot efforts
Watershed
Condition Class
(2010)
Functioning properly
Functioning at risk
Impaired function
Vulnerability Assessment
Exposure
Economic
Ecological
Sensitivity
Social
Adaptive
Capacity
Ecological Vulnerabilities
• Potential for cascading
effects
• Compounded by
interactions with existing
threats
Social Vulnerabilities
• Unequal impacts
• Communities vary in their
capacity to prepare for and
recover from extreme
events
• At high risk: poor
communities, rural
communities, indigenous
people
Economic Vulnerabilities
• Direct effects --Losses
• Threats to existing
infrastructure
• Costs of responding to and
recovering from extreme
events can swamp our
capacity for preparation
• Shifts in economic activity-wins or losses
USFS Strategy: Engage
•Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program—10 projects,
many focusing on hazardous fuels reduction
•Stakeholder engagement in forest planning rule
•Science-management partnerships (e.g., adaptation workshop,
Climate Change Interdisciplinary Team)
•Interagency efforts (e.g., Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee)
USFS Strategy: Manage
Adaptation – Managing the Unavoidable
Mitigation – Avoiding the Unmanageable
.
Balancing Adaptation and
Mitigation
Adaptation
Mitigation
Adaptation
Increase Resistance
“bounce off”
(e.g., thinning, prescribed burning, firewise houses)
Promote Resilience
“bounce back”
(e.g., plant seedlings, fire insurance)
Facilitate Transitions
“bounce forward”
(e.g., zoning changes to reduce WUI)
Adaptation: Resistance
•Stand improvement-remove
competing vegetation to reduce
water stress
Before
•Hazardous fuel reduction to
reduce risk of wildfire
•Reclaim roads, increase culvert
size to reduce erosion
•Institutional resistance?
FRFTP, 2005
After
Adaptation: Resilience
•Protect and restore high-quality
habitats and wildlife/fish
corridors
•Revegetation to improve
watershed conditions
•Institutional resilience?
Adaptation: Transitions
Increase landscape connectivity
•Close unneeded roads
•Acquire or protect sensitive
land
Melvin H. Burke, 1957, Umpqua National Forest, OR
Institutional transitions?
Mitigation-Carbon Stewardship
•Promote the uptake of atmospheric carbon
by forests and its storage in soils, vegetation,
and wood products and materials*
*America’s forests, including carbon
stored in wood products, offset about
12.5% of the carbon dioxide Americans
emit each year.
.
•Reduce greenhouse gas emissions indirectly,
e.g. through carbon-neutral bioenergy and
increased use of wood building products
Performance Scorecard
To ensure accountability across the National
Forest System, we have created a scorecard
for measuring progress, recording
achievements, and sharing lessons learned by
each national forest and grassland.
Performance Scorecard
•Flexibility
•Accountability
•Balance
•Integration
Performance Scorecard
Goal: Yes to 7 out of 10 by 2015
1. Employee education
2. Climate change coordinators
3. Plans of work
4. Science and management
5. External partnerships
6. Vulnerability assessment
7. Adaptation activities
8. Monitoring
9. Carbon assessment
10. Sustainable operations
Scorecard Preliminary Assessment
Evolving Policy Issues
• CEQ NEPA guidance
• Planning rule
• Executive Order 13514
Thank You!
Albert Bierstadt