SEEING THE ELEPHANT
National Grasslands socioeconomic trends
within the context of climate change
Richard D. Periman
Southwestern Regional Office
Ecosystem Analysis and Planning
Albuquerque, NM
August 30, 2011
505-842-3225
rperiman@fs.fed.us
General Trend:
an Aging Population.
Population Trends, Region National Grasslands
R1 Northern Grasslands
76,000
74,000
72,000
70,000
68,000
66,000
64,000
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
62,000
Components of Population Change, Region National Grasslands 2000-2009
10,000
8,587
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,289
2,000
223
(2,000)
(4,000)
Northern Region National Grasslands
1990 to 2009: Population shrank from
74,852 to 66,288.
11.4% decrease.
Out-migration = 34% of change from
2000 to 2009.
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
(5,044)
(6,000)
(6,298)
(8,000)
(7,313)
(7,536)
Change (Natural + Migration)
Migration
International Migration
Domestic Migration
Natural Change
Deaths
Births
(10,000)
Population Trends, R2 Northern Grasslands
Cluster
350,000
R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
0
Components of Population Change, R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster 20002009
50,000
39,554
40,000
32,899
30,000
19,038
20,000
15,779
14,720
10,000
1,059
-
(10,000)
(20,000)
(20,516)
Change (Natural + Migration)
Migration
International Migration
Domestic Migration
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
Natural Change
Deaths
(30,000)
Births
R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
1990 to 2009: Population grew
from 243,497 to 299,427.
23% increase.
In-migration 21% (2000-2009)
R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster
Population Trends, R2 Southern Grasslands
Cluster
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
0
Components of Population Change, R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster 2000 2009
100,000
85,131
80,000
63,910
57,670
60,000
46,786
40,000
31,788
20,000
10,884
-
(20,000)
Migration
International Migration
Domestic Migration
Change (Natural + Migration)
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
Natural Change
Deaths
(32,122)
(40,000)
Births
R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster
1990 to 2009: Population grew from
321,991 to 482,321.
49.8% increase.
In-Migration 38% (2000-2009).
Population Trends, R3 Grasslands
R3 Grasslands
65,000
64,000
63,000
62,000
61,000
60,000
59,000
58,000
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
57,000
Components of Population Change, R3 Grasslands 2000-2009
10,000
8,000
7,386
6,000
4,000
2,000
1,198
873
(2,000)
(4,206)
(5,079)
(6,000)
(6,188)
Migration
International Migration
Domestic Migration
Change (Natural + Migration)
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
Natural Change
Deaths
(8,000)
Births
R3 Grasslands
1990 to 2009: Population shrank from
62,625 to 60,019.
4.2% decrease.
Out-Migration > 20% (2000-2009).
(3,054)
(4,000)
R1 Northern Grasslands
Employment by Industry, Region National Grasslands
14,000
Commodity Sectors, Percent of Total Employment**
12,000
18.0%
10,000
16.0%
14.0%
8,000
12.0%
6,000
10.0%
8.0%
4,000
6.0%
2,000
4.0%
2.0%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0
0.0%
Region National Grasslands
Timber 2009
U.S.
Mining 2009
Agriculture 2009
Jobs in Mining Sectors, R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
6,000
Services
Retail trade
Government
Manuf acturing
Construction
Finance, ins. & real estate
Agricultural services
Trans. & public utilities
Wholesale trade
Farm
Mining
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Oil & Gas Extraction
Coal Mining
Metal Ore Mining
Nonmetallic Minerals Mining
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
From 1970 to 2009:
Dividends, interest, and rents increase 95%.
Age-related transfer payments increase 181%.
Income maintenance transfer payments increase
541%.
From 1998 to 2009: oil & gas extraction grew
86.6%; coal mining 61.2%; metal ore mining grew
27.7%.
R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
Employment by Industry, R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
50,000
45,000
Commodity Sectors, Percent of Total Employment**
40,000
10.0%
9.0%
35,000
8.0%
30,000
7.0%
6.0%
25,000
5.0%
20,000
4.0%
3.0%
15,000
2.0%
10,000
1.0%
0.0%
5,000
R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
Mining 2009
0
Agriculture 2009
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Timber 2009
U.S.
Jobs in Mining Sectors, R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
6,000
Services
Retail trade
Government
Manuf acturing
Construction
Finance, ins. & real estate
Agricultural services
Trans. & public utilities
Wholesale trade
Farm
Mining
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Oil & Gas Extraction
Coal Mining
Metal Ore Mining
Nonmetallic Minerals Mining
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
From 1970 to 2009:
Dividends, interest, and rents increase 381%.
Age-related transfer payments increase 484%.
Income maintenance transfer payments increase
871%.
From 1998 to 2009:
Oil & gas extraction grew 86.6%; coal mining
61.2%; metal ore mining 27.7%.
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster
Employment by Industry, R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster
60,000
50,000
Commodity Sectors, Percent of Total Employment**
6.0%
40,000
5.0%
30,000
4.0%
20,000
3.0%
2.0%
10,000
1.0%
0
R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster
Timber 2009
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.0%
U.S.
Mining 2009
Agriculture 2009
Services
Retail trade
Government
Manuf acturing
Construction
Finance, ins. & real estate
Agricultural services
Trans. & public utilities
Wholesale trade
Farm
Mining
From 1970 to 2009:
Dividends, interest, and rents increase 215%.
Age-related transfer payments increase 424%.
Income maintenance transfer payments increase
639%.
Jobs in Mining Sectors, R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster
600
500
400
300
200
100
Oil & Gas Extraction
Coal Mining
Metal Ore Mining
Nonmetallic Minerals Mining
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
From 1998 to 2009: Oil & gas extraction grew
72.0%; coal mining shrank 75.0%.
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
Employment by Industry, R3 Grasslands
R3 Grasslands
9,000
8,000
7,000
Commodity Sectors, Percent of Total Employment**
6,000
14.0%
5,000
12.0%
4,000
10.0%
3,000
8.0%
2,000
6.0%
1,000
4.0%
0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2.0%
0.0%
R3 Grasslands
Timber 2009
U.S.
Mining 2009
Agriculture 2009
Services
Retail trade
Government
Manuf acturing
Construction
Finance, ins. & real estate
Agricultural services
Trans. & public utilities
Wholesale trade
Farm
Mining
From 1970 to 2009:
Dividends, interest, and rent increased 133%.
Age-related transfer payments increased 271%.
Income maintenance transfer payments increased
571%.
Jobs in Mining Sectors, R3 Grasslands
600
500
400
300
200
100
Oil & Gas Extraction
Coal Mining
Metal Ore Mining
Nonmetallic Minerals Mining
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
From 1998 to 2009: Oil & gas extraction shrank
17.3%.
Agriculture remains largest employer.
Economic Profile System-Human Dimensions Toolkit EPS-HDT
R2 North Grasslands
R1 Grasslands
Cash Receipts f rom Marketings, R2 Northern Grasslands Cluster
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
700
Millions of 2010 $s
600
500
400
300
200
Livestock & Products
Cash Receipts f rom Marketings, R2 Southern Grasslands Cluster
1,200
600
Crops
Livestock & Products
Crops
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
0
1976
200
0
1974
500
1980
400
1978
1,000
800
1976
1,500
1974
2,000
1,000
1972
2,500
1970
Millions of 2010 $s
1,400
3,000
1972
2008
Cash Receipts f rom Marketings, R3 Grasslands
3,500
1970
Crops
R3 Grasslands
R2 South Grasslands
Millions of 2010 $s
2006
Crops
Livestock & Products
Livestock & Products
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1970
1972
0
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
100
1970
Millions of 2010 $s
Cash Receipts f rom Marketings, Region National Grasslands
Standardized Precipitation Index 12 Month
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/spiFmap.pl?spi12
Screen clipping taken: 8/29/2011, 11:00 AM
Populations at Risk from Climate Change



Decreasing populations in R1 & R3 Grasslands:
Young people moving out.
Increasing populations in R2 North & South:
Increased demand for resources, housing, jobs,
and water.
American Indian Reservations:
Growing populations, low median age, low
employment, inability to relocate.
Potential Economic Effects of Climate
Change



Overall greater dependence on transfer payments
as populations age.
Greater dependence health and services sectors.
Risk to agricultural sector:
 Greater
moisture in the Northern Grasslands
 Increased drought in Southern Grasslands


Oil & Gas, Coal production increase with
petrochemical and energy demands (greater
potential economic gain).
Labor shortages for farm and other sectors.
296 Fire May 24, 2011. Total
acres 15,000; NFS acres on the
Rita Blanca National Grassland
(Dallam County, TX).
Photos by John Baumchen,
Ben Coble, and Angela Safranek
Climate Change: Perception & Values

Cultural Memory
 Climate
values passed on through generations become
traditions, e.g., American Indian traditions and culture.

Social Memory and Values
 People
who lived through the Dust Bowl pass on
memory of severe drought.

New populations

Bring values system based on college education - may
have more political view of climate change.
Climate Change: Communication

Cultural traditional views
 Will
likely use references to weather events and large
scale impacts to society.

Historical social views
 Use
weather references, personal anecdotal references:
“I remember the Dust Bowl, and it was so bad that ...”

New residents
 Likely
to use more references to climate science, or
political, climate related descriptions.
Summary



Demographic patterns show population change: outmigration in North & South, in-migration in R2.
Agriculture, oil & gas, mining, construction sectors
balanced against increasing demand for service
and health sectors. More dependence on transfer
payments.
Understanding social values and history are key to
communicating potential climate change impacts to
resident Grassland communities.
Data Sources & Methods
Data Sources
The EPS-HDT Measures report uses published statistics from government sources that are available to the public and cover the entire
country. All data used in EPS-HDT can be readily verified by going to the original source. The contact information for databases used in this
profile is:
County Business Patterns
Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/view/cbpview.html
Tel. 301-763-2580
Regional Economic Information System
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
http://bea.gov/bea/regional/data.htm
Tel. 202-606-9600
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
http://www.bls.gov/lau
Tel. 202-691-6392
Population Division
Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/
Tel. 866-758-1060
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
http://www.bls.gov/cew
Tel. 202-691-6567
National Bureau of Economic Research
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
Tel. 617-868-3900
Methods
EPS-HDT core approaches
EPS-HDT is designed to focus on long-term trends across a range of important measures. Trend analysis provides a more comprehensive
view of changes than spot data for select years. We encourage users to focus on major trends rather than absolute numbers.
EPS-HDT displays detailed industry-level data to show changes in the composition of the economy over time and the mix of industries at
points in time.
EPS-HDT employs cross-sectional benchmarking, comparing smaller geographies such as counties to larger regions, states, and the
nation, to give a sense of relative performance.
EPS-HDT allows users to aggregate data for multiple geographies, such as multi-county regions, to accommodate a flexible range of userdefined areas of interest and to allow for more sophisticated cross-sectional comparisons.