Generation Adequacy Planning in Multi-Area Power Systems Abstract Under deregulated environment, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) individually invest on generation and transmission line expansion. IPPs and ISOs may wish to obtain the optimal location that yields a favorable trade off between system reliability and cost. This helps guide the development of additional generation capacity that is optimal with respect to cost and reliability. This problem is stochastic due to random uncertainties in area generations, transmission lines, and area loads. Reliability is also a big challenge in the problem. This project proposes an optimization mixedinteger stochastic programming approach to the solution of the generation expansion planning problem. The problem is formulated as two-stage recourse model. Reliability index used in this problem is expected load loss, i.e. expected power that is not supplied to load. The objective is to minimize the expansion cost in the first stage and the expected loss of load cost in the second stage. In this project, the problem will be solved by Lshaped algorithm. A power system with three-area will be tested to see the effectiveness of the proposed model. 1. Introduction Electric power systems in the United States are going through a restructuring process that transforms electric market from integrated utility to privately owned generation, transmission, and distribution units. The vertical arrangement of generation and distribution varies in some degrees by state policy. The transmission lines are accessible by all market participants. Independent System Operator is established to assure system reliability and provide congestion management. Previously, state owned utilities projected the generation and transmission investment concurrently and correlatively in multi-area power systems. Consequently, the system is well balanced and stabilized. Under the deregulated environment, the state has no control over the location of prospective generation. Independent Power Producers (IPPs) can install new generations in any area which may results in imbalances between 1 generation and transmission. Therefore, the need for determining generation in each area and tie lines requirements, which will improve system reliability, is assuming an increased importance. Long term generation adequacy in integrated environment assumes one bus model where all generating units and loads are connected into a single bus. Only generation requirement is evaluated since transmission line has already been planned to ensure energy delivery ahead of time. The analysis is thus simple as the transmission line constraint is not considered. However, this assumption is no longer valid in the restructured environment when IPPs individually decide the additional generation location and transmission line investment and expansion are still under debate [3], [7], [8], [12], [17]. The additional generation in one area may or may not deliver assistance capacity to others and, as a result, each area reliability level may not be improved. Hence, individual generation investment is not an efficient way to improve system reliability where deficient generation exists in the system. On the other hand, the system with sufficient generation may experience market power problem. While there are considerably small numbers of firms in wholesale generation, each firm can exercise some market power unilaterally by withholding capacity resulting in high marketclearing price [7], [8], [9], [10]. Installed Capacity Market (ICAP) is established to assure long term system adequacy and prevent market power. Each area generation will be procured as required and the rest can be paper traded. The system will have adequate power supplies in a long run and the market will have a proper signal of generation investment in the future. Moreover, the requirement will prevent the power producers from limiting their power supplies. Long term adequacy analysis will not only benefit the consumers for affordable, efficient and reliable electricity but also serves the IPPs as a tool for minimum cost generation investment. At present, the generation requirement is calculated by simulation and ad hoc method. As an example, Independent System Operator--New England (ISO-NE) utilizes Multi-Area Reliability Simulation Program (MARS) for the calculation [5]. Recent study of long term generation adequacy in multi-area power system is thoroughly analyzed and 2 reported by Rau and Zeng [5]. An optimization procedure along with MARS is proposed to determine an excess or deficient amount of generation in each area. One of the contributions of this paper is to show the relationship between each area risk level and load changes. The analysis pointed out that an exponential approximation of risk level [30] in single area system can be applied to multi-area systems. The major drawback of [5] is that the method requires iterations between optimization and risk calculation which is obtained from several MARS runs. In a single MARS run, the outage of each component in the system is simulated chronologically by Monte Carlo sampling which may demand long history to produce converged results. An optimization method has also been applied to solve transmission expansion planning [1], [2], [4], [6], [11], [13], [14], [16], [19], [22]. Even though the applications are for single area power systems, it can be extended to multi-area power systems by considering a bus as an area. In addition, transmission lines in single area power systems can be considered as tie lines in multi-area power systems with some modifications in maximum forward and backward capacity of each line since tie lines do not necessarily have the same maximum capacity in both directions. The problem is initially formulated as linear programming as the power flows are continuous variables. Mixed-integer programming and dynamic programming [1], [2], [6], [11], [16], [19], [22] are then proposed to incorporate the discrete decision of additional capacity and to obtain the sequence of optimal decision respectively. Power system networks are characterized by power flow equations (DC flow) [6], [11], [16], [19] or by capacity flow network [1], [4], [13], [14], [22]. The common constraints are system capacity constraints and demand constraints. The common objective of all formulations is to minimize the expansion cost over a certain time period. Various optimization techniques; such as, Brach and Bound, Bender’s decomposition, heuristic techniques; such as, Fuzzy logic, greedy adaptive search, genetic algorithm, and tabu search, and meta-heuristic technique; such as, simulated annealing have been used to solve the problem. Reliability aspect is included in the problem either in an objective function with some penalty cost on unserved energy in [4], [22] or as a constraint in [2] on loss of load probability where random uncertainties; for example, generations and load are modeled 3 with their probability distribution functions. However, these formulations utilize heuristic techniques to account for random uncertainties along with optimization schemes; as an example, mixed-integer programming, and a simulation tool; as an example, Monte Carlo simulation, to obtain the solution [4], [22]. The explicit formulation accounting random uncertainties in generation capacities and load has been shown in stochastic programming literature [20]. Power systems are modeled as a capacity flow network. Stochastic mixed integer programming approach is proposed to the solution of electric power capacity expansion. The problem is formulated as two-stage recourse model where the first stage decision variables are the additional capacity units and the second stage decision variables are network flows. The objective is only to minimize the expansion cost. Reliability aspect has not been considered in stochastic programming literature. In this project, the problem is formulated as two-stage recourse model. The first stage and second stage variables are the same as [20]; however, reliability is also included in the second stage objective function. The overall objective is to minimize expansion cost in the first stage and at the same time to minimize expected loss of load cost in the second stage. L-shaped algorithm is applied to solve the problem. The problem is implemented to three area power systems. 2. Problem Statement Power system network is generally composed of generation, transmission line, and load. The system is partitioned into several areas geographically where each area contains various generation units, transmission lines in the area, load and tie lines between areas. Multi-area power systems are modeled as capacity flow network with area generation, area load, and tie-line connections between areas. The problem is to determine the generation capacity requirement in each area with minimum cost and maximum reliability. In this analysis, it is assumed that tie-line equivalent parameters are given. The followings present detailed modeling of each unit namely area generation, area load, and tie lines. 4 Area Generation Model Generation units in each area will be given forced outage rate, repair time and its capacity. Discrete probability distribution function is constructed based on each unit parameters assuming two stages Markov process, up and down states as shown in Fig. 1. Up state Failure rate Repair rate Down state Fig. 1. Two-stage Markov Process The distribution function construction utilizes unit addition algorithm approach [25]. The probability table contains numbers of state capacity including zero and its corresponding probability. Let gi : generation capacity vector of area i pig : probability vector of generation capacity in area i such that Pr ( g i ) = pig For computational efficiency, the generation capacity will be rounded off to a fixed increment so that only minimum capacity state and number of states in each area are stored. A state with very small probability will be neglected. Area Load Model Discrete joint distribution of area load is composed employing hourly load history data in each area to preserve the correlation between area loads. Area load is presented in (1) ( l h = l1h , l2h ,…, lnh where l h : load vector for the hour h lih : load for the hour h in area i n : number of area in the system 5 ) (1) Due to numerous numbers of load states, they are grouped together utilizing clustering algorithm to an appropriate number of states. Tie Lines Model Tie-line parameters are its capacity, forced outage rate and repair rate. Discrete probability distribution of tie-line capacity between areas is constructed based on the given parameters assuming two stages Markov process, up and down states. Like area generation model, the distribution function construction utilizes unit addition algorithm approach [25]. The Tie-line model is represented by (2), which contains the connection areas (from area, to area), its capacity and its corresponding probability. ( tij = f ij , bij ) (2) where tij : tie-line capacity vector from area i to area j f ij : tie-line capacity vector from area i to area j in forward direction bij : tie line capacity vector from area i to area j in backward direction pijt : probability vector of tie line capacity from area i to area j such that pijt = Pr (tij ) Model formulation Multi-area power systems are formulated as a network flow problem where a node in the network represents an area. Source and sink nodes are artificially introduced to represent area generations and load as shown in Fig. 2. The overall objective is to minimize the expansion cost while also maximize system reliability under uncertainty in area generation, load, and tie-lines. The capacity of every arc in the network is random variable with its discrete probability distributions. 6 g i (ω ) Power system network Tie line between areas ……. ……. s li (ω ) t ij (ω ) t Fig. 2 Power System Network An optimization mixed- integer stochastic programming approach is proposed to the solution of the generation expansion planning problem in multi-area power systems. Using expected system load loss as reliability index, the problem is formulated as twostage recourse model. The first stage decision variables are number of generators to be invested in each area which are made before the realization of randomness in the problem. The second stage decision variables are an actual flow in the network. The formulation is given in the following. Assumption The additional generators in all area are fully available i.e. the probability of generating full capacity is one. Index I : network nodes {1, 2,…, n} s : source node t : sink node ω : system state (scenario), ω ∈ Ω Ω : state space (all possible scenarios) Decision variables xig : number of additional generators at area i yij (ω ) : flow from arc i to j 7 Parameters R : budget cig : cost of an additional generation unit at area i cil : cost of load loss at area i M ig : an additional generation capacity in area i (MW) gi (ω ) : random capacity of generation in area i (MW) tij (ω ) : random capacity of tie line between area i and j (MW) li (ω ) : random load in area i (MW) Objective function Min z = ∑ cig xig + Eω~ [ f ( x, ω~ )] (3) i∈ I s.t ∑c x ≤R g g i i i∈ I xig , xijt ≥ 0 , integer (4) (5) where the only constraint (4) in the first stage is a restriction on maximum number of additional generators in the system with respect to budget R. Constraint (5) is an integer requirement for number of additional generators. The function f ( x, ω~ ) is the second stage objective value of minimizing cost of load loss under a realization ω of ω~ and is given as follows: f ( x, ω ) = Min ∑ cil (li (ω ) − yit (ω )) (6) i∈ I s.t. ysi (ω ) ≤ gi (ω ) + M ig xig ; ∀i ∈ I (7) y ji (ω ) − yij (ω ) ≤ tij (ω ) ; ∀i, j ∈ I , i ≠ j (8) yit (ω ) ≤ li (ω ) ; ∀i ∈ I (9) ysi (ω ) + ∑ y ji (ω ) = ∑ yij (ω ) + yit (ω ) ; ∀i ∈ I (10) yij (ω ), ysj (ω ), yit (ω ) ≥ 0 ; ∀i, j ∈ I (11) j ∈I j ≠i j∈I j ≠i where, constraints (7), (8), and (9) are maximum capacity flow in the network under uncertainty in generation, tie line, and load arc respectively. Constraint (10) constitutes 8 conservation of flow in network. Constraint (11) is non-negativity requirement for actual flow in the network. 3. Solution Approach Deterministic equivalent of the problem can be written; however, the number of total variables will be too large to solve it in timely manner. For more computational efficiency, L-shaped algorithm is implemented to approximate the objective function in the second stage. The algorithm is implemented with C++ utilizing basic code provided in class [24]. Since the problem in the first stage has integer decision variables, the master problem is solved as integer programming. Step of L-shaped algorithm is as follow. Step 0. Initialization • Find x0 from solving cT x min s.t. Ax = b x ≥0 • UB ← ∞ and LB ← −∞ Step 1. Solve sub problem • Reset α k ← 0 , β k ← 0 , f k ← 0 • For all ω = 1 to Ω , solve sub problem k, each scenario has probability pω fωk = min qωT y s.t. Wω y = rω − Tω x k y≥0 1.If infeasible I. Obtain dual extreme ray, µωk ( ) ( ) T T II. Compute feasibility cut from α k = µωk rω , and β k = µωk Tω III. Go to step 2. 2.If feasible I. Obtain dual solution, π ωk II. III. • • • ( ) T ( ) T Update α k + = pω π ωk rω , and β k + = pω π ωk rω Update current subproblem objective value f k + = pω fωk Get cut coefficient and rhs, α k , β k Update UB = min{UB, cT x k + f k } If UB changed, update the incumbent solution, xincumbent ← x k 9 Step 2. Solve master problem including cut from step 2 • Optimality cut, add η ≥ α k + β kT x • Feasibility cut, add β kT x ≥ α k • • Obtain solution from master problem x k +1 ,η k +1 Update LB = max{LB, cT x k +1 + η k +1} Step 3. Check convergence • • • Compute percent gap from % gap = (UB − LB ) or % gap = (UB − LB ) UB LB * incumbent If % gap ≤ ε , STOP and obtain x ← x , objective value = UB Else, k ← k + 1 , return to step 1. 4. Computational Experiment The test system parameters are shown in appendix A. Three area test system, its parameters, and the probability table for each area before additional units, are shown in Fig. A.1, TABLE A.I, A.II, and A.III. The additional unit parameters of three area system are shown in TABLE A.IV. It is assumed that the budget is $200 million and the additional generators have capacity of 100 MW each. Test instance generated from these parameters is called mapsG3 and is shown in appendix B. Due to the structure of joint distribution of three area load, block structure in the STOCH file is implemented. Sensitivity analysis on c l , cost of load loss, is carried out. It is assumed that load in three areas are of the same type i.e. loss of load cost per MW of each area are the same. In the analysis, cost of load loss is varied from 1 to 2000 $m/MW, complete solutions are shown in appendix C. The sequence of the next best solution can be found when reliability cost increases. The solution of the problem with different cost of load loss can be considered as the best solution at different reliability level. Since the reliability can not be in the constraint, this analysis can offer another approach to see the best generation combination with different reliability level subject to expansion cost. TABLE I shows the best generation location and load loss with different cost of load loss, c l . When this cost is high, the expected loss of load is small. 10 TABLE I THREE AREA GENERATION SOLUTIONS Loss of load cost Number of units in area i 1 2 3 Expected Loss of load (MW) 1-5 0 0 0 26.37080 6-9 1 0 0 15.85525 10-17 2 0 0 9.77574 18-2000 2 0 1 5.13922 l per MW, c ($m per MW) This means that if reliability cost is very small, there should be no additional unit in the system. In addition, the next best location subject to cost is area 1, area 1, and then area 3. The benefit of additional generation can be quantified from this analysis and is shown in TABLE II. It should be noted that if the objective of the problem is to maximize reliability with subject to cost, then cost of load loss should be infinity. TABLE III shows the total number of iterations, and CPU time with different cost of load loss. TABLE II ADDITIONAL AREA GENERATION CONTRIBUTION TO EXPECTED LOSS OF LOAD Number of units in area i in sequence 1 2 3 Expected Loss of load reduction (MW) +1 0 0 10.515550 +1 0 0 6.079512 0 0 +1 4.636517 TABLE III THREE AREA GENERATION SOLUTIONS Loss of load cost per MW, c ($m per MW) #iteration Time (sec.) Expected Loss of load (MW) 18 5 17.922 5.139221 19 5 17.75 5.139221 20 5 17.812 5.139221 25 4 14.546 5.139221 50 4 14.484 5.139221 100 4 15.187 5.139221 1000 4 14.438 5.139221 2000 4 14.313 5.139222 l 11 It can be observed from the experiment that when this parameter changes, even if the solutions are the same, it affects computational efficiency. If the solution is the same, it would be favorable to have loss of load cost value that will yield smaller number of iteration and less CPU time. 5. Conclusions and Future Work A solution to generation adequacy planning problem is proposed. The problem is formulated as a two stage recourse model with the objective to minimize expansion cost and maximize reliability subject to total budget. Three area power system test instance is created. L-shaped algorithm is implemented and applied to solve the problem. For larger systems with very large number of scenarios, interior sampling can also be applied along with L-shaped algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on cost of load loss is conducted. The analysis shows that when the cost is high, the system is more reliable (loss of load is small). It also provides the quantified information (expected loss of load reduction) of the next best generation location that improves system reliability subject to budget constraint. If the budget constraint is relaxed or the loss of load cost in each area is different, the next best generation location will also change. Therefore, sensitivity analysis on these parameters should also be investigated in future study. The problem can be formulated to minimize cost with subject to reliability constraint where reliability index can be obtained from different budget value. If reliability index (expected loss of load) is above the limit, budget will be increased. The algorithm has to be repeated until system reliability is below the limit. In this analysis, the big assumption is that the additional generators are fully available. However, these additional units usually have their probabilities of failure which are caused by either scheduled maintenance or random failure. Future study should be made when the additional generators (decision variables) have their probabilities of failure which will affect the outcomes (scenarios) and their probabilities. In addition, different reliability index can be used; for example, loss of load probability. However, the objective function will be of different form. To calculate loss of load probability, number of loss of load state has to be obtained. Therefore, minimizing loss of load probability is the same as minimizing number of loss of load 12 state. At each scenario, a state is loss of load state when any area suffers from loss of load. The second stage objective function should be as in (12). f ( x, ω ) = Max (li (ω ) − yit (ω ),0 ) (12) i∈I The analysis should be made to verify that this function is convex on decision variables, x. Another option would be to incorporate binary decision variables in the second stage to access information of loss of load in each scenario. However, the problem will have discrete decision variables in both stages, and other algorithms should be implemented. 6. Appendix A. Test System Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Fig. A.1. Three Area Test System TABLE A.I THREE AREA GENERATION PARAMETERS Cap (MW) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Area 1 Probability 0.32768 0.40960 0.20480 0.05120 0.00640 0.00032 Cap (MW) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Area 2 Probability 0.262144 0.393216 0.245760 0.081920 0.015360 0.001536 0.000064 13 Cap (MW) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Area 3 Probability 0.32768 0.40960 0.20480 0.05120 0.00640 0.00032 TABLE A.II THREE AREA TIE-LINE PARAMETERS Cap (MW) 100 0 1-1 Probability 0.9 0.1 Tie-line 1-2 Cap Probability (MW) 100 0.9 0 0.1 Cap (MW) 100 0 1-3 Probability 0.9 0.1 TABLE A.III THREE AREA LOAD PARAMETERS Area 1 (MW) 100 200 300 400 500 Area 2 (MW) 200 300 400 500 600 Area 3 (MW) 100 200 300 400 500 Probability 0.05 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.05 TABLE A.IV THREE AREA ADDITIONAL UNIT PARAMETERS Area j c gj ($m) 1 2 3 60 100 80 B. Test Instance TABLE B.I shows test statistics for three area power systems. TABLE B.I THREE AREA SYSTEM TEST STATISTICS Number of integer variables Number of continuous variables Number of constraints Number of scenarios mapsG3.cor NAME ROWS N OBJ_R L R0001 L R0002 L R0003 L R0004 L R0005 L R0006 L R0007 L R0008 L R0009 L R0010 L R0011 L R0012 L R0013 E R0014 E R0015 E R0016 COLUMNS MARK0000 C0001 mapsG3 'MARKER' OBJ_R 60 'INTORG' R0001 60 14 3 12 16 10080 C0001 C0002 C0002 C0003 C0003 MARK0001 C0004 C0005 C0006 C0007 C0007 C0008 C0008 C0009 C0009 C0010 C0010 C0011 C0011 C0012 C0012 C0013 C0013 C0014 C0014 C0015 C0015 R0002 OBJ_R R0003 OBJ_R R0004 'MARKER' R0002 R0003 R0004 R0005 R0014 R0006 R0014 OBJ_R R0014 R0005 R0014 R0008 R0015 OBJ_R R0015 R0006 R0014 R0008 R0015 OBJ_R R0016 -100 100 -100 80 -100 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 R0001 100 R0001 80 'INTEND' R0014 R0015 R0016 R0007 R0015 R0009 R0016 R0011 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 R0007 R0015 R0010 R0016 R0012 1 -1 -1 1 1 R0009 R0016 R0010 R0016 R0013 1 -1 1 -1 1 R0002 R0004 R0006 R0008 R0010 R0012 500 500 100 100 100 400 RHS rhs rhs rhs rhs rhs rhs rhs BOUNDS LI bnd LI bnd LI bnd ENDATA R0001 R0003 R0005 R0007 R0009 R0011 R0013 200 600 100 100 100 300 300 C0001 C0002 C0003 0 0 0 mapsG3.tim TIME mapsG3 PERIODS C0001 R0001 C0004 R0002 ENDATA TIME1 TIME2 mapsG3.sto STOCH INDEP RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS RHS BLOCKS BL BL BL BL BL BL mapsG3 DISCRETE R0002 0 R0002 100 R0002 200 R0002 300 R0002 400 R0002 500 R0003 0 R0003 100 R0003 200 R0003 300 R0003 400 R0003 500 R0003 600 R0004 0 R0004 100 R0004 200 R0004 300 R0004 400 R0004 500 DISCRETE TLINE12 TIME2 RHS R0005 0 RHS R0007 0 TLINE12 TIME2 RHS R0005 100 RHS R0007 100 TLINE13 TIME2 RHS R0006 0 RHS R0009 0 TLINE13 TIME2 RHS R0006 100 RHS R0009 100 TLINE23 TIME2 RHS R0008 0 RHS R0010 0 TLINE23 TIME2 RHS R0008 100 RHS R0010 100 0.00032 0.00640 0.05120 0.20480 0.40960 0.32768 0.000064 0.001536 0.015360 0.081920 0.245760 0.393216 0.262144 0.00032 0.00640 0.05120 0.20480 0.40960 0.32768 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 15 BL AREALOAD RHS R0011 RHS R0012 RHS R0013 BL AREALOAD RHS R0011 RHS R0012 RHS R0013 BL AREALOAD RHS R0011 RHS R0012 RHS R0013 BL AREALOAD RHS R0011 RHS R0012 RHS R0013 BL AREALOAD RHS R0011 RHS R0012 RHS R0013 ENDATA TIME2 100 200 100 TIME2 200 300 200 TIME2 300 400 300 TIME2 400 500 400 TIME2 500 600 500 0.05 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.05 C. Complete computational results Loss of load cost per MW, c ($m per MW) Total cost ($m) 1 Number of units in area i Cost ($m) 1 2 3 Expansion Loss of load #iteration Time (sec.) Expected Loss of load (MW) 26.3708 0 0 0 0 26.3708 1 3.641 26.3708 5 131.8604 0 0 0 0 131.8604 1 3.672 26.3721 6 155.1315 1 0 0 60 95.1315 3 11.735 15.8553 7 170.9867 1 0 0 60 110.9867 3 10.969 15.8552 8 186.8420 1 0 0 60 126.8420 4 14.328 15.8553 9 202.6972 1 0 0 60 142.6972 5 11.922 15.8553 10 217.7574 2 0 0 120 97.75738 4 14.141 9.7757 15 266.6361 2 0 0 120 146.6361 4 15.031 9.7757 16 276.4118 2 0 0 120 156.4118 4 14.375 9.7757 17 286.1875 2 0 0 120 166.1875 4 14.515 9.7757 18 292.5060 2 0 1 200 92.5060 5 17.922 5.1392 19 297.6452 2 0 1 200 97.6452 5 17.750 5.1392 20 302.7844 2 0 1 200 102.7844 5 17.812 5.1392 25 328.4805 2 0 1 200 128.4805 4 14.546 5.1392 l 50 456.9611 2 0 1 200 256.9611 4 14.484 5.1392 100 713.9221 2 0 1 200 513.9221 4 15.187 5.1392 1000 5339.2210 2 0 1 200 5139.2210 4 14.438 5.1392 2000 10478.4400 2 0 1 200 10278.4400 4 14.313 5.1392 7. References [1] [2] [3] [4] A. S. D. Braga, and J. T. 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