Canadian Convenience Stores Association
Youth Contraband Tobacco Study, 2008
September 14, 2008
Canadian Convenience Stores Association
466 Speers Road, Suite 217 Oakville ON Canada L6K 3W9
Phone - (905) 845-9152 Fax - (905) 849-9947
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Objectives
Methodology
Data Analysis
Sample Size and Tolerances
Conclusions
Context for the Study
Cigarette Butt Study - Key Findings
Share of Illegal Tobacco Products by Province
Share of Illegal Tobacco Products by Municipality/City/Area (Ontario)
2
1. Objectives
To understand whether the youth segment is smoking un-taxed
cigarettes and to what extent.
• Analyze prevalence of contraband tobacco products at 75 high
schools in Quebec and 80 high schools in Ontario.
• Definition of “illegal” (in terms of the baseline study)
– Duty Not Paid – Appropriate government taxes and duty not paid.
– Counterfeit and suspected international brands were classified
under “illegal” tobacco products.
– “Illegal” butts are those without branding, foreign or untaxed
(native) brands.
3
2. Methodology
Anonymous collection of cigarette butts
•
Anonymously collect cigarette butts at previously identified (observed)
smoking locations on public lands around high schools.
•
The targets in this study were 75 high schools in Quebec and 80 high
schools in Ontario.
•
The selection of sites was based on geographic location and sociodemographic profiles of communities.
•
The data gathering phase was implemented between April 16th and June
5th, 2008.
•
The results are based on a count of legal, illegal and unknown butts.
4
3. Data analysis
Cigarette butts were sorted into “legal”, “Illegal” and “Unknown” clusters.
Definitions:
Legal: Cigarette butts with identifiable brand names of tax paid cigarette brands
Illegal: Cigarette butts without branding, foreign or untaxed (native) brands.
Unknown: Cigarette butts without identifiable markings to be classified as
“Legal” or “Illegal”.
5
4a. Confidence level and margin or error
The data has been tested for significance at the 95% confidence level with a
0.8% margin of error for the broad sample base.
• As margins of error for various sub-samples will vary based on sample size and proportion
of the obtained result, a selection of sampling tolerances is presented in the following table.
• The data is based on Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) Standards.
sample size
(N)
margin of error
(fraction)
margin of error
(percentage)
100
0.100
10.0
200
0.071
7.1
500
0.045
4.5
1000
0.032
3.2
2000
0.022
2.2
5000
0.014
1.4
10000
0.012
1.2
15000
0.011
1.1
20000
0.008
0.8
6
4b. Sample Size and Tolerances
The margin of error calculation is based on the population of the age group 15-19
years in Ontario and Quebec.
As per Statistics Canada data*, the population of the age group 15-19 in Ontario and
Quebec is as follows:
Ontario: 833,115
Quebec: 475,005
Count of cigarette butts
Total
Legal
Illegal
Unknown
Total
(Legal/Illegal)
Ontario
11,489
7614
2713
1,162
10,327
Quebec
14,721
7790
4381
2,550
12,171
Total
26,210
15404
7094
3,712
22,498
Results based on Ontario and Quebec Sample (n= 22,498)
Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 10,327)
Results based on Quebec Sample (n= 12,171)
* Statistics Canada- 2006 Community Profiles
+/+/+/-
0.85%
1.27%
1.14%
7
4c. Sample Size in Ontario
Results based on Ontario
Sample (n= 10,327)
Municipality/Area
Regional Municipality of Durham
Oshawa
Pickering
Whitby
Ajax
Regional Municipality of Halton
Burlington
Oakville
Milton
Regional Municipality of Peel
Brampton
Mississauga
Regional Municipality of York
Aurora
Markham
Newmarket
Richmond Hill
Vaughan
Regional Municipality of Toronto
Toronto
York
North York
East York
Etobicoke
Scarborough
Other areas
Hamilton
Windsor
Brantford
Cornwall
Ottawa
TOTAL ONTARIO
Sites 2007
Sites 2008
Samples 2008
8
2
2
2
2
6
2
2
2
6
3
3
10
2
2
2
2
2
20
8
2
2
2
2
6
2
2
2
6
3
3
10
2
2
2
2
2
20
5
3
3
3
3
3
5
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
30
5
5
5
5
10
1138
284
268
286
304
856
312
252
292
906
513
393
1244
228
274
254
238
250
2658
630
441
423
348
393
423
3521
735
450
427
480
1429
55
80
10,327
8
4d. Sample Size in Quebec
Results based on Quebec sample
(n= 12,171)
Municipality/Area
Greater Montreal Area
Anjou
Greenfield Park
Longueuil
Montreal
Rosemont
Côte-Des-Neiges
Duvernay
Laval-Des-Rapides
Sainte-Rose
Pierrefonds
St-Michel
Jean-Talon
Verdun
Westmount
Dorval
Lachine
Notre-Dame-De-Grâce
Pointe-Claire
Snowdon
Sites
(2007)
35
1
2
1
5
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
4
4
2
Sites
(2008)
35
1
2
1
5
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
4
4
2
Sample size
(2008)
6506
234
362
196
698
312
186
122
312
192
398
219
313
310
417
341
218
624
585
467
Municipality/Area
Other areas
Quebec city and areas
Shannon
Trois-Rivières
Hull
Chateauguay
Sherbrooke
Chicoutimi
Jonquière
Alma
TOTAL
Sites
(2007)
15
15
1
50
Sites
(2008)
40
15
1
5
5
4
5
2
2
1
75
Sample size
(2008)
5665
1834
149
716
726
511
686
586
281
176
12,171
Note: Montreal data available September 23; Other
regional Quebec data to be released September 24-30
9
5. Conclusions
•
Significant presence of “illegal” tobacco in Quebec and Ontario:
Use of untaxed (“illegal”) tobacco products continues to be significant among youth
segments in Ontario and Quebec. 31% of the 22,498 cigarette butts collected from
155 sites in Quebec and Ontario were found to be “illegal”, an increase of 1% since
2007.
•
Higher incidence of “illegal” tobacco in Quebec:
In Quebec, an estimated 36% of the cigarette butts from 75 sites were found to be
“illegal, an increase of 1% since 2007. In Ontario, an estimated 26% of the cigarette
butts collected from 80 sites were “illegal”, an increase of 2% since 2007.
•
Widespread prevalence of contraband across geographic areas
Use of untaxed (“illegal”) tobacco products in the youth population is widespread.
The survey of 49 new sites in 2008 (in addition to 105 sites from the 2007 sample)
confirms that the prevalence of illegal tobacco products is not restricted to larger
urban areas.
•
Unchanged incidence of “illegal” tobacco in areas surveyed in 2007
The incidence of “illegal” butts was unchanged at 30% in total for Ontario and Quebec
when comparing 105 sites surveyed in 2007 and 2008. However, incidence of “illegal”
butts increased by 2% in Ontario and declined by 1% in Quebec.
10
6. Context for this study
Incidence of smoking in the population aged 15-19 years
in Ontario and Quebec
Information source: Statistics Canada
11
6a. Incidence of under-age smoking in Ontario and Quebec
According to a Statistics Canada study (“Smokers, by province and territory , 2005”),
10.3% of individuals in the age group 15-19 years are smokers. The incidence of underage smokers is above the national level in Quebec (12.8%) and below the national level
in Ontario (9.0%).
All age
groups
12 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 64
65 and
older
% of population aged 12 and older
Canada
16.5
1.1
10.3
19.9
21.0
18.7
8.8
Males
18.2
0.5E
10.5
22.7
23.3
19.8
9.7
Females
14.9
1.7E
10.0
17.2
18.6
17.6
8.1
Que.
18.7
2.8E
12.8
21.3
22.8
21.7
10.5
Males
19.8
F
14.5
21.7
24.9
22.5
12.5
Females
17.6
5.1E
11.2
20.9
20.6
20.9
9.1
Ont.
15.7
0.3E
9.0
19.4
20.1
17.8
7.6
Males
17.8
F
8.9
24.1
22.2
19.4
8.2
Females
13.6
0.6E
9.1
14.9
17.8
16.2
7.2
Source: Statistics Canada; Smokers, by province and territory , 2005
12
7. Cigarette Butt Study
Key Findings
13
7a. Cigarette Butt classification
The share of cigarette butts classified as “legal”, “Illegal” and “Unknown” are listed below.
14% of the cigarette butt samples reviewed were found to be of “unknown” origin. The
analysis in this report includes only “legal” and “illegal” cigarette butts to ensure data
integrity.
n= 26,210
Share
Total (n)
Total %
Legal %
Illegal %
Unknown %
Ontario
11,489
100
66
24
10
Quebec
14,721
100
53
30
17
Total
26,210
100
59
27
14
14
7a. Cigarette Butt classification (continued)
•
The cigarette butts classified as “unknown” were not included in the analysis. The total
count of “legal” and “illegal” cigarette butts, excluding “unknown” butts, is 22,498.
•
Incidence of illegal tobacco increased by 2% in Quebec and Ontario with an increase of
incidence in Quebec (+1%) and increase in Ontario (+2%) when the 49 new sites
surveyed in 2008 are included in the total sites surveyed in 2008.
n= 22,498
Total (n)
Total %
Legal %
Illegal %
Change
vs. 2007 (%)
Ontario
10,327
100
74
26
+2
Quebec
12,171
100
64
36
+1
Total
22,498
100
69
32
+2
Margin of error calculation
Results based on Ontario and Quebec Sample (n= 22,498)
Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 10,327)
Results based on Quebec Sample (n= 12,171)
+/+/+/-
0.85%
1.27%
1.14%
15
7a. Cigarette Butt classification (continued)
Including 49 new Sites (2008 vs. 2007)
Legal
Count of butts (2008)
Illegal
Total
+2%
7614
2713
10327
36%
+1%
7790
4381
12171
32%
+2%
15404
7094
22498
Count of butts (2008)
Illegal
1838
Total
7541
2007
2008
Change %
Ontario
24%
26%
Quebec
35%
Total
30%
Excluding 49 new sites (2008 vs. 2007)
2007
2008
Change %
Ontario
24%
24%
0%
Legal
5703
Quebec
35%
34%
-1%
6071
3134
9205
Total
30%
30%
0%
11774
4972
16746
Margin of error calculation
Results based on Ontario and Quebec Sample (n= 22,498)
Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 10,327)
Results based on Quebec Sample (n= 12,171)
+/+/+/-
0.85%
1.27%
1.14%
16
7b. Incidence of illegal cigarette butts in Ontario and Quebec
(including new areas1)
•
32% of the cigarette butts collected were found to be “illegal”, an increase of 2%. The analysis is
based on a count of illegal cigarette butts collected in the surveyed municipalities/areas.
•
These butts did not meet the criteria to be classified as “legal” as per guidelines provided by CCSA
– Presence of tax paid brand identification on the cigarette butt
– Lower Ignition Propensity (LIP) test
n= 10,253 (2007)
n= 22,498 (2008)
+1
+2
+2
Incidence of illegal
cigarette butts,
including
new areas1 (%)
1.New areas surveyed in 2008
• Ontario: Windsor, Brantford, Ottawa and Cornwall
• Quebec: Hull, Chateauguay, Sherbrooke , Chicoutimi, Jonquière and Alma
17
7c. Incidence of illegal cigarette butts in Ontario and Quebec
(excluding new areas1)
In areas surveyed in 2007, the combined incidence of “illegal” butts in Ontario and Quebec
remained unchanged at 30%. However, the incidence declined (-1%) in Quebec and
remained unchanged in Ontario. The analysis is based on the incidence of illegal cigarette
butts in the municipalities/areas surveyed in 2007 and 2008, excluding new areas1.
-1
0
n= 10,253 (2007)
n= 16,746 (2008)
0
Incidence of illegal
cigarette butts (%)
1. New areas surveyed in 2008
• Ontario: Windsor, Brantford, Ottawa and Cornwall
• Quebec: Hull, Chateauguay, Sherbrooke , Chicoutimi, Jonquière and Alma
18
7d. Share of illegal cigarettes by municipalities/areas in
Quebec and Ontario (count)
•
In 2008, 48 percent of the sites surveyed had over 30% share of “illegal” cigarette butts.
•
In 2007 survey , 50 percent of the sites surveyed had over 30 % share of “illegal” cigarette butts.
•
In 2008, 56% percent of the municipalities/areas surveyed had over 30% share of “illegal” cigarette butts.
Municipalities/
Areas surveyed
n= 22,498
Incidence (count and percentage) of “illegal” cigarette butts in surveyed
municipalities/areas in Quebec and Ontario
19
7e. Share of illegal cigarettes by municipalities/areas in
Quebec and Ontario (count)
In Ontario, 9 of the 25 municipalities/areas surveyed had over 30 percent share of “illegal”
cigarette butts. In Quebec, 22 of the 30 municipalities/areas surveyed had over 30 percent
share of “illegal” cigarette butts.
Municipalities/
Areas surveyed
n= 22,498
Incidence (number) of municipalities/areas with over
30 percent share of “illegal” cigarette butts in each province.
20
7f. Share of illegal cigarettes by municipalities/areas in
Quebec and Ontario (%)
In Ontario, thirty six percent of the twenty five municipalities/areas surveyed had over
30% share of “illegal” cigarette butts. The share is significantly higher in Quebec (73%).
Municipalities/
Areas surveyed
Incidence (%) of municipalities/areas with over
30 percent share of “illegal” cigarette butts in each province.
n= 22,498
21
8. Share of illegal tobacco products in Ontario
Durham
Halton
Peel
York
Toronto
Hamilton
Windsor
Brantford
Cornwall
Ottawa
22
8a. Incidence of illegal cigarette butts in the province of Ontario
•
Incidence of illegal cigarette butts (including new sites added in 2008) increased by
2% to 26%. The new municipalities/areas included in the 2008 study are Windsor,
Brantford, Cornwall and Ottawa. The incidence of illegal cigarette butts is 4%
higher in the new municipalities/areas surveyed.
•
Incidence of illegal cigarette butts, excluding the four new municipalities/areas,
remained unchanged.
+2
Change in incidence of illegal cigarette butts in Ontario,
including Windsor, Brantford, Ottawa and Cornwall (%)
n= 10,327
0
Change in incidence of illegal cigarette butts in Ontario,
excluding Windsor, Brantford, Ottawa and Cornwall (%)
n= 7,541
23
8b. Share of illegal tobacco products by municipalities/areas in
Ontario
Incidences of illegal Tobacco increased in Durham, Peel and Hamilton since Durham, Peel,
York,
Windsor, Brantford, Cornwall and Kingston have higher share of illegal tobacco vs. the
provincial average in Ontario.
n= 10,327
Average for province (26%)
24
8c. Share of illegal tobacco products by Municipalities/Areas in
Ontario.
Incidence of “illegal” tobacco increased in Durham, Peel, York, Etobicoke and Hamilton. The new
municipalities/areas (Windsor, Brantford, Cornwall and Ottawa) surveyed have significant
incidences of “illegal” tobacco.
n= 10,327
Average for province (26%)
25
8d. Share of illegal tobacco products by Municipalities/Area in
Ontario.
municipalities/areas with lower income adequacy and younger populations tend to have higher
share of illegal tobacco. In addition, Durham and areas of Peel lead in growth of contraband
tobacco.
n= 7,537
Average change for Ontario (+2%)
26
9. Legal vs. Illegal Analysis by Regional
Municipalities/Areas in the province of Ontario
27
9a. Regional Municipality of Halton
Higher income adequacy combined with relatively lower population of 15-19
year old group influences the lower share of illegal tobacco in Halton.
n= 856
-1
0
-1
-1
28
9b. Regional Municipality of Peel
Mississauga has the third highest share of “illegal” cigarette butts (43%) in
Ontario.
n= 906
-1
+2
+3
29
9c. Regional Municipality of Durham
Durham ranks third in municipalities with high “illegal” cigarette butts in
Ontario. Oshawa and Pickering have relatively high shares of “illegal”
cigarette butts- 36% and 40% respectively.
n= 1138
+1
+4
+3
+3
+6
30
9d. Regional Municipality of York
Newmarket has the highest share of “illegal” cigarette butts among all
municipalities/areas in Ontario, followed by Aurora.
n= 1244
-3
-2
-1
-1
-2
-1
31
9e. Regional Municipality of Toronto
Toronto seems to have a relatively low share of “illegal” cigarette butts.
Moreover, the share of “illegal” cigarette butts is consistent across the
city. This may be attributed to the prevalence of many mixed income
communities in each zone.
n= 2658
-2
-2
+2
-2
0
+3
-2
32
9f. Other municipalities/areas
The areas surveyed outside the GTA includes Windsor, Brantford, Cornwall
and Ottawa. These areas were not surveyed in 2007.
The incidence of contraband tobacco increased by 3% in Hamilton vs. 2007.
n= 3521
+3
33