Abatement Opportunities and Abatement Costs at Existing Coal Generation Units Joshua Linn (RFF) Dallas Burtraw (RFF) Erin Mastrangelo (Maryland) RFF First Wednesday December 7, 2011 What Can We Learn from the Operation of Existing Coal Generation Units? Observe operation and efficiency at coal units 1985-2009 Document heterogeneous heat rates and estimate abatement opportunities Estimate abatement costs and compare policy designs Results available soon in RFF Discussion Paper: “Regulating Greenhouse Gases from Coal Power Plants under the Clean Air Act” 1 Figure 1: Heat Input vs. Heat Rate (2008) Heat Input (million MWh) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 Heat Rate (mmBTU/MWh) 2 Figure 2: Estimated Heat Rate Distribution by Firing Type 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 6 8 All Units 10 Tangential 12 Front 14 Opposed 16 3 Results Heterogeneity suggests significant abatement opportunities exist, up to 5 percent emissions reduction Costs appear to be as low, or lower, than engineering estimates Evidence of small bounce-back (“rebound”) effect Analysis suggests benefits of flexibility 4