This article was downloaded by: [Jintao Liu] On: 24 February 2012, At: 05:12 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK Hydrological Sciences Journal Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/thsj20 Grid parameterization of a conceptual distributed hydrological model through integration of a sub-grid topographic index: necessity and practicability Jintao Liu a b c , Xi Chen a c b c c , Jichun Wu , Xingnan Zhang , Dezeng Feng & Chong-Yu Xu e a State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China b Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China c Department of College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China d Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1047, Blindern, NO-0316, Oslo, Norway e Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden Available online: 24 Feb 2012 To cite this article: Jintao Liu, Xi Chen, Jichun Wu, Xingnan Zhang, Dezeng Feng & Chong-Yu Xu (2012): Grid parameterization of a conceptual distributed hydrological model through integration of a sub-grid topographic index: necessity and practicability, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57:2, 282-297 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.645823 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Full terms and conditions of use: http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. 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The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material. d 282 Hydrological Sciences Journal – Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 57(2) 2012 Grid parameterization of a conceptual distributed hydrological model through integration of a sub-grid topographic index: necessity and practicability Jintao Liu1,2,3 , Xi Chen1,3 , Jichun Wu2 , Xingnan Zhang3 , Dezeng Feng3 and Chong-Yu Xu4,5 Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China jtliu@hhu.edu.cn 2 Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China 3 Department of College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China 4 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1047 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway 5 Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden Received 7 June 2010; accepted 22 June 2011; open for discussion until 1 August 2012 Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Liu, J.T., Chen, X., Wu, J.C., Zhang, X.N., Feng, D.Z. and Xu, C.-Y., 2012. Grid parameterization of a conceptual, distributed hydrological model through integration of a sub-grid topographic index: necessity and practicability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 282–297. Abstract Grid-based distributed models have become popular for describing spatial hydrological processes. However, the influence of non-homogeneity within a grid on streamflow simulation was not adequately addressed in the literature. In this study, we investigated how the statistical characteristics of soil moisture storage within a grid impacts on streamflow simulations. The spatial variation of the topographic index, TI, within a grid was used to determine parameter B of the statistical curve of soil moisture storage in the Xinanjiang model. For comparison of influences of the non-homogeneity within a grid on streamflow simulation, two parameterization schemes of soil moisture storage capacity were developed: a grid-parameterization scheme for a distributed model and a catchment-averaged scheme for a semi-distributed model. The practicability and usefulness of the gridparameterization method were evaluated through model comparisons. The two models were applied in Jiangwan experimental catchment Zhejiang Province, China. Streamflow discharge data at the catchment outlet from 1971 to 1986 at different temporal resolutions, e.g. 15 min and daily time step, were used for model calibration and validation. Statistical results for different grid scales demonstrated that the mean and variation of TI and B decline significantly as the grid scale increases. The simulated streamflow discharges of the two models were similar and the semi-distributed model outperformed the distributed model slightly when the streamflow at the outlet of the catchment was used as the only basis for comparison. In addition, a relatively larger bias in the predicted discharges between these two models was observed along with an abrupt increase of soil moisture saturation ratio. A further analysis of the simulated soil moisture content distribution revealed that the distributed model can provide a reasonable representation of the variable source area concept, which was justified to some extent by the field experiment data. Key words Xinanjiang model; conceptual parameters; grid-based model; parameterization Paramétrage de grille d’un modèle hydrologique distribué conceptuel par l’intégration d’un indice topographique sous grille : nécessité et faisabilité Résumé Les modèles distribués basés sur des grilles sont devenus populaires pour décrire des processus hydrologiques spatialisés. Cependant, l’influence des hétérogénéités au sein d’une grille sur la simulation des débits n’a pas été suffisamment abordée dans la littérature. Dans cette étude, nous avons étudié comment les caractéristiques statistiques des stocks d’humidité du sol au sein d’une grille influencent les simulations de débit. La variation spatiale de l’indice topographique, TI, au sein d’une grille a été utilisée pour déterminer le paramètre B de la courbe statistique des stocks d’humidité du sol dans le modèle Xinanjiang. Pour comparer les influences de l’hétérogénéité au sein d’une grille sur la simulation des débits, deux schémas de paramétrage de la capacité des stocks de l’humidité du sol ont été développés : un schéma de paramétrage de grille pour un modèle distribué et un schéma moyenné à l’échelle du bassin pour un modèle semi-distribué. ISSN 0262-6667 print/ISSN 2150-3435 online © 2012 IAHS Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.645823 http://www.tandfonline.com Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index 283 La faisabilité et l’utilité de la méthode de paramétrage de grille ont été évaluées par comparaison des modèles. Les deux modèles ont été appliqués au bassin versant expérimental de Jiangwan, dans la province du Zhejiang, en Chine. Les données de débit à l’exutoire du bassin versant de 1971 à 1986 à différentes résolutions temporelles, par exemple à pas de temps de 15 min et journalier, ont été utilisées pour le calage et la validation du modèle. Les résultats statistiques pour différentes échelles de grille ont démontré que la moyenne et la variation de TI et B diminuent de façon significative avec l’augmentation de l’échelle de la grille. Les débits simulés par les deux modèles sont similaires et le modèle semi-distribué surclasse légèrement le modèle distribué lorsque le débit à l’exutoire du bassin versant a été utilisé comme seule base de comparaison. En outre, un biais relativement plus important dans les débits prévus entre ces deux modèles a été observé, avec une augmentation brutale du taux de saturation en eau du sol. Une analyse plus approfondie de la distribution de l’humidité du sol simulée a révélé que le modèle distribué peut fournir une représentation raisonnable du concept d’aire source variable, qui a été justifié dans une certaine mesure par les données expérimentales de terrain. Mots clefs modèle Xinanjiang; paramètres conceptuels; modèle basé sur grille; paramétrage Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 1 INTRODUCTION Because of their simple structure, fewer parameters and easier application, conceptual hydrological models are of great importance for practical utilization such as flood forecasting, water resources planning and water resources management. The Xinanjiang model (Zhao et al. 1980), for example, is one of the most popularly used conceptual hydrological models in China. The model outperforms some other lumped models in that it inherently represents the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity over the basin by using a parabolic curve, i.e. the soil moisture storage capacity curve (SMSCC) (Gan et al. 1997), and this was later widely adopted by other hydrological models, e.g. the VIC model (Liang et al. 1996) and the ARNO model (Todini 1996). However, a large amount of spatio-temporal information (e.g. digital maps, digital terrain models and land-use data) combined with many powerful tools (geographic information systems, GIS and remote sensing, RS) has challenged the traditional lumped structure and parameter determination of the conceptual models. For instance, in order to make good use of the distributed information, GIS was used to regionalize lumped catchment characteristics and the conceptual parameters by Schumann et al. (2000). Information of land use and land cover was applied to parameterize two lumped storage capacity curves in a conceptual model by Wooldridge et al. (2001). For better representation of the spatial distribution of hydrological processes, many efforts have been made to upgrade the conceptual lumped models to distributed models. For example, the lumped HBV model was modified into a distributed and semi-distributed structure by dividing a catchment into lots of grid cells or a number of homogenous zones in order to account for detailed catchment characteristics (e.g. soil and land use) (Das et al. 2008). The Xinanjiang model was recently improved to be a semi-distributed model that was run on a resolu- tion of 1 × 1 km2 to utilize higher-resolution rainfall data (Li et al. 2004, Lu et al. 2008) and was coupled with a grid-based kinematic flow method by Liu et al. (2009). However, in the above studies, the effect of landscape heterogeneity on runoff generation within each 1 × 1 km2 grid was not evaluated. That is to say, the Xinanjiang model was applied in each grid, using the same soil moisture storage capacity curve and only a unique set of parameters was to be estimated. In order to develop a physically-based structure for the Xinanjiang model, Guo et al. (2000) found that the soil storage curve can be substituted by a curve of normalized cumulative frequency of area fraction versus TOPMODEL’s topographic index (Beven et al. 1984). Chen et al. (2007) developed a new approach that incorporates the TOPMODEL topographic index into the mechanism of runoff generation of the Xinanjiang model. The runoff generation can be computed at a sub-catchment scale, thus making the model a distributed structure with small data requirements and high applicability. The existing studies tend to apply the physicallybased method for conceptual model parameterization in a catchment or sub-catchment toward different aims. The question arises as to whether it is necessary to resolve the non-homogeneity within the scale of a grid with a cell size of 1 km × 1 km, or even smaller, such as 200 m × 200 m. That is to say, one needs to evaluate the heterogeneity of storage capacity for each grid and to assess whether it is necessary and practicable to run the simulation on a grid-based conceptual model. The main objective of this study is to evaluate and develop a grid-based model for simulating streamflow at different temporal resolutions and to investigate how the statistical characteristics of soil moisture storage within a grid will impact on the streamflow simulation. Here, parameterization of a grid-based conceptual model is first evaluated for different sizes of grids and a suitable grid size is then defined. A conceptual rainfall–runoff model, the Xinanjiang model, Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 284 Jintao Liu et al. was selected and modified to incorporate different parameterization strategies for a computational grid network. The study includes: (a) exploration of the question as to “whether it is more important for runoff generation to reproduce the spatial variability of soil moisture content within a grid or the spatial variability from the grid scale to the catchment, as the Xinanjiang model attempted to do by using the soil moisture storage capacity curve”; (2) investigation of the spatial variability of the soil moisture curve for different grid scales, on the one hand, and how this spatial variability affects the model simulation at different time resolutions (daily, quarter-hourly) on the other hand; and (3) proof that the distributed model is able to describe the variable source area concept, which was examined by the relationship between soil moisture content and the distance to the river channel, on the basis of field data. Fig. 1 Location of Jiangwan catchment and its DEM. 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1 Study catchment The selected catchment in this study is the Jiangwan catchment, located in the Mogan Mountains, Zhejiang province, China (Fig. 1). The catchment has an area of 20.9 km2 and is characterized by mountains and steep forest slopes of 25–45◦ . The surface elevation is 500–600 m a.s.l. in the northwestern region and decreases to 78 m a.s.l. at the outlet of the Jiangwan hydrological station (119◦ 50 E, 30◦ 35 N). Hydro-meteorological data were provided by Zhejiang Provincial Hydrology Bureau; the data quality was checked according to the National Standard of People’s Republic of China for Water Resources (2000) before the data were released. Hydrometeorological data are available for the period 1957–1986. Precipitation records in a quarter-hourly (15-min) time step are available at 10 raingauge Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index stations. The average annual precipitation is about 1580 mm according to 30 years’ data. Daily pan evaporation and temperature were monitored at Hemuqiao station (119◦ 48 E, 30◦ 35 N) and the average annual evaporation and temperature are 805 mm and 14.6◦ C, respectively. Streamflow discharges at 15-min time step were monitored at Jiangwan station. The average daily discharge at Jiangwan station is about 0.56 m3 /s and the largest flood flow discharge of 464 m3 /s was observed on 13 September 1961. Contour lines were digitized using the TOPOGRID function in ArcInfo (ESRI Inc.) from topography maps (scale 1:10 000) with 5-m vertical intervals. A DEM of 10-m resolution was generated first. The DEM was resampled on 50 m × 50 m, 60 m × 60 m, 70 m × 70 m, 80 m × 80 m, 90 m × 90 m, 100 m × 100 m, 150 m × 150 m, 200 m × 200 m and 250 m × 250 m spatial resolutions for TI (TOPMODEL topographic index) aggregation and hydrological modelling. In this study, TI was computed according to a grid-based DEM with a cell size of 10 m× 10 m. A triangular multiple flow-direction algorithm (MD∞) (Seibert and McGlynn 2007), which combines the algorithms of Quinn et al. (1995) and Tarboton (1997), was used to calculate upslope accumulated area for each cell. All the algorithms and computations were implemented on the digital drainage network extraction software package, DigitalHydro (Liu 2009). Soil moisture content was sampled at 72 sites in the Hemuqiao sub-catchment in the Jiangwan basin (Fig. 1) over four days. In the sub-catchment, 18 hillslopes were derived by the DigitalHydro software. The distance to channel (DC) in each hillslope was also derived and contour lines with 30-m intervals are depicted in Fig. 1. The soil texture within the catchment is sand and sandy loam with a large porosity due to worms or decayed tree roots in the A horizon (about 30 cm deep) on top of a thinner clay B horizon underlain by non-permeable bed rock. Therefore, infiltrationexcess runoff is rare and saturation-excess runoff is the main source of runoff on hillslopes. Vegetation distribution is dominated by bamboo forest, covering about 95% of the whole area. The remaining area is rural and crop land. 2.2 The Xinanjiang model and two grid-parameterization schemes 2.2.1 The basic concept of the Xinanjiang model The Xinanjiang model (Zhao et al. 1980) has 285 been successfully used to simulate catchment discharge in humid and semi-humid regions in China. In the original version of the Xinanjiang model, the basin to be modelled is divided into a set of subbasins. In each sub-basin, a three-layer evapotranspiration sub-model is used to account for soil water balance, and runoff generation is described by a single parabolic curve, i.e. soil moisture storage capacity curve (SMSCC) to represent the spatial distribution of the soil moisture storage capacity over the whole basin or sub-basin (Zhao et al. 1980): Wm B f =1− 1− F Wmm (1) where Wm is the storage capacity at a point in the basin, which varies from zero to the maximum of the whole watershed Wmm ; B is the exponent of the spatial distribution curve of tension water storage capacity that represents the non-uniformity of the spatial distribution of the soil moisture storage capacity over the catchment; f denotes the partial area whose storage capacity is equal to or smaller than a certain value of W m ; and F is the total area. The catchment average storage capacity, Wm , can be obtained by: Wm = Wmm 1+B (2) Then, runoff in each sub-basin is separated into overland flow, interflow and groundwater flow in terms of a similar non-uniform distribution curve. At the sub-basin scale, different flow components are routed through the linear reservoir method and channel flow routing is carried out by the Muskingum method. More detailed descriptions of the Xinanjiang model are available in Zhao et al. (1995), Cheng et al. (2006), Chen et al. (2007), Li et al. (2009) and Liu et al. (2009). The Xinanjiang model parameters needed to be calibrated in this study are defined in Table 1. The parameter Wm has a strong influence on catchment runoff generation. Zhao et al. (1980) suggested that the values of Wm are about 80–100 mm in south China and 140–170 mm north of the Yanshan Mountains and in northeastern China. For thin soils, SM is around 10 mm and ex is between 1.0 and 1.5 (Zhao and Liu 1995). As Ki and Kg are the outflow coefficients of the free water storage to interflow and groundwater, it is suggested that the sum Ki + Kg may be taken as 0.7–0.8 and the ratio of the three runoff components will be changed by altering the ratio of Kg /Ki (Zhao and Liu 1995). In the Xinanjiang model, K is 286 Table 1 Main parameters in the Xinanjiang model. IRDGi = Parameters Description K Ratio of potential evapotranspiration to pan evaporation Average tension water capacity Areal mean free water capacity Exponent of the spatial distribution curve of free water storage capacity influencing the development of the saturated area Outflow coefficient of free water storage to the interflow Outflow coefficient of free water storage to the groundwater max(TI1 , TI2 , . . . , TIl ) − TIi max(TI1 , TI2 , . . . , TIl ) − min(TI1 , TI2 , . . . , TIl ) Wm (mm) SM (mm) ex Ki Kg Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 Jintao Liu et al. the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to pan evaporation (Table 1), which is influenced by elevation and size of the pan; the value of K always varies from 0.5 to 1.1 (Zhao 1984). Based on the concept of the Xinanjiang model, two different model structures, namely distributed and semi-distributed, were developed and adopted for this study; both the models use a grid network to represent spatial distribution of rainfall input, vegetation, land use and topography of the basin. In these two models, the key discrepancy lies in the different parameterization schemes, i.e. the sub-grid parameterization scheme for the distributed model and the catchment-averaged scheme for the semi-distributed model. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the flow routing model used in both models is the same kinematic wave model for raster systems described by Liu et al. (2009). The two different parameterization schemes (models) are described below. 2.2.2 Grid-based representation of SMSCC and the distributed model Traditionally, the SMSCC and its parameters are determined in an empirical way and one set of curves was used at the basin scale. By comparing the spatial distribution of the Xinanjiang model SMSCC with TOPMODEL’s topographic index, both Guo et al. (2000) and Chen et al. (2007) suggested that distribution of SMSCC in the Xinanjiang model can be replaced by using the TOPMODEL topographic index, TI (= ln(a/tanβ)) (Beven et al. 1984), in which a is the upstream contributing area per unit contour line width and tanβ is the local topographic slope gradient. Then, f /F versus W m /Wmm in equation (1) can be substituted by a curve of f /F versus IRDG (defined as an index of relative difficulty of runoff generation) (Guo et al. 2000, Chen et al. 2007): (3) where max(TI1 , TI2 , . . ., TIl ), min(TI1 , TI2 , . . ., TIl ) are the maximum and minimum TI, respectively, i is the ith sub-grid within the grid, and l is the number of sub-grids (Fig. 2). In order to explore the spatial heterogeneity of sub-grid and inter-grid and derive the IRDG versus f /F curves for each grid, the 10 m × 10 m DEM was further sampled to generate more coarse grids, such as 50 m × 50 m, 60 m × 60 m, 70 m × 70 m, 80 m × 80 m, 90 m × 90 m, 100 m × 100 m, 150 m × 150 m, 200 m × 200 m, 250 m × 250 m. The idea is to study whether and how the soil moisture storage distributes and varies within a larger-scale grid. We suggest a procedure to assess the variability quantitatively, as shown in Fig. 2. An arbitrarily selected dark grid at 200 m × 200 m scale is shown in Fig. 2(a), while Fig. 2(b) shows the schematic of sub-dividing a computational grid (e.g. scale 200 m × 200 m) into a sub-grid network of 10 m × 10 m. The values of the bar for each sub-grid represent the TI for the 10 m × 10 m grid. Then the 400 TI values are sorted to estimate the cumulative frequency curve of TI. Figure 2(c) shows the curve of IRDG versus f /F. Thus, the soil moisture storage curve in the Xinanjiang model can be calculated from DEM data. Two parameters need to be defined in equations (1) and (2): the exponent of the spatial distribution curve, B, and the average tension water storage capacity, Wm . Parameter B for each computational grid can be determined by using curve-fitting procedures based on least square theory, as follows: B= l i=1 ui v i l u2i (4) i=1 where ui = ln(1–IRDGi ), vi = ln(1–fi /F) and l is the number of sub-grids within the grid (e.g. 400 in Fig. 2(b)). So, in the SMSCC only one parameter, Wm needs to be calibrated using hydrological data from the catchment. In the distributed model, the above proposed method was used to define the SMSCC (Fig. 2) and to evaluate the sub-grid variations of topographic characteristics in each computational grid. That is to say, the Xinanjiang model parameters describing Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index (b) (a) (c) IRDG Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 287 Tabular data of f/F vs IRDG Fitted curve Cumulative frequency (f/F) Fig. 2 Schematic diagram for the parameterization of a grid: (a) the 200 m × 200 m grid network for Jiangwan catchment; (b) the distribution of topographic index within a 200 m × 200 m grid of (a); and (c) the fitted cumulative frequency curve for IRDG defined by Chen et al. (2007) as an index of relative difficulty of runoff generation. runoff generation processes can be adjusted differently for each individual grid in the distributed model structure. Thus, the Xinanjiang model is applied for computation of runoff within each grid. For the flow routing in a grid-based model, the catchment is divided into numerous hillslopes and consists of a raster grid of flow vectors that define the water flow directions. Here, the kinematic wave flow routing model for a grid network developed by Liu et al. (2009) was used. In this flow routing model, discharge leaving the downstream boundary of a raster enters the upstream boundary of a higher-level raster and serves to establish the boundary conditions of depth and discharge required by the kinematic wave method. Flows are routed from the most upstream cells to the outlet cell. 2.2.3 Catchment-averaged scheme and the semi-distributed model Compared with the distributed model structure, in which the parameterization method of SMSCC (see equations (3) and (4)) is used on the grid scale, the semidistributed model structure uses a unique SMSCC on the entire catchment to represent catchment-averaged spatial variation of soil moisture storage capacity. The semi-distributed model is different from the traditional Xinanjiang model in two aspects. First, the parameter B of SMSCC in equation (1) was determined in terms of TI in equations (3) and (4) instead of model calibration. Second, for flow routing, the same kinematic wave method as that of the distributed model was used. 2.3 Model calibration method and evaluation criteria The model parameters were calibrated by a trialand-error method. The following procedures for the Xinanjiang model calibration were proposed by Zhao and Liu (1995): (a) setting initial values of the parameters; (b) calibrating the parameters of runoff generation processes, e.g. K and Wm in 288 Jintao Liu et al. Table 1, by comparing the simulated and observed daily streamflow discharges; and (c) calibrating other parameters in Table 1 by comparing the simulated and observed 15-min streamflow discharges. Model performance is usually evaluated by a series of statistical criteria. Each of them has its own strengths and weaknesses. No universal criteria are available for evaluation of different models with different application purposes. Multi-criteria performance evaluation is adopted in this study since we are evaluating different combinations of spatial parameterization, flow routing and time steps. The evaluation criteria adopted in the study include: Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 2.3.1 Efficiency coefficient R2ec =1− (Qobs − Qsim )2 (Qobs − Qobs )2 (5) where Qobs and Qsim are observed and simulated discharges (m3 /s), respectively and Qobs is the average value of observed discharge. 2.3.2 Relative bias of the simulated total runoff (Qobs − Qsim ) RBv = (6) Qobs 2.3.3 Relative bias of simulated peak flow RBp = Qobs,max − Qsim,max Qobs,max (7) where Qobs,max and Qsim,max are the observed and simulated peak discharge (m3 /s), respectively. 2.3.4 Peak time error For the quarter-hourly model, another statistical criterion, peak time error (PTe )—the time difference in the appearance of simulated and observed peak flow—is used. This is crucial for assessing model performance in flood-event simulation, and is defined as: PTe = PTsim − PTobs (8) where PTsim and PTobs are the simulated peak time and the observed peak time, respectively. 2.3.5 Linear regression and determination coefficient In addition, the model results include runoff volume and peak flow, which were evaluated, respectively, by a linear regression equation, and the determination coefficient, R2 cc : y=a·x+b (9) R2cc = (X − X )(Y − Y ) 2 2 (X − X ) · (Y − Y ) (10) where x, y are variables in X , Y which are observed and simulated runoff volume or peak flow for different events; while X , Y are their average values, respectively; and a and b are coefficients for the linear regression equation. A good simulation can be justified by these equations with a and R2 cc close to 1 and b close to zero. 2.3.6 Relative peak bias and predicted discharge bias The above criteria were used to evaluate model performance compared with the observation. Two additional criteria were used for evaluating the differences (bias) between the two modelling approaches, i.e. distributed and semidistributed models, at two different time resolutions. For 15-min time step simulations, we first calculated the relative peak bias, PBr as: D Qsim,max − QLsim,max × 100% (11) PBr = Qobs,max L where QD sim,max and Qsim,max are the simulated peak discharges of the distributed and the semi-distributed models, respectively. For daily time step simulations, we adopted the predicted discharge bias, PDb as: L PDb = QD sim − Qsim (12) L 3 where QD sim and Qsim are simulated discharge (m /s) of distributed and semi-distributed models, respectively. 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 Spatial variations of SMSCC As Quinn et al. (1995) suggested that large grids (e.g. 50 m × 50 m or larger) are unrepresentative of detailed catchment characteristics, DEMs with fine resolution should be used to test internal state Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of the topographic index (TI) calculated by the MD∞ method for a 10 m × 10 m grid. processes and avoid bias caused by a large grid resolution. Based on the 10 m × 10 m DEM, the spatial distribution of TI shown in Fig. 3 was calculated by the MD∞ method (Seibert and McGlynn 2007). In this catchment, TI values of between 2.00 and 8.40 account for nearly 90% of the total area. The mean and median values are 5.65 and 6.18, respectively. The statistical variables of TI within a grid were averaged over the whole catchment and are listed in Table 2. As the grid scale increases from 50 m to 250 m, the standard deviation increases from 1.42 to 2.01, the average value of maximum TI increases from 8.76 to 13.38, the minimum value decreases from 3.26 to 2.24, and the mean and median do not show remarkable changes. These results indicate that variation of soil moisture capacity becomes large as the grid scale increases. Additionally, the probability density function (pdf) of TI within each grid appears to be a skewed distribution, because all the median values are larger than the mean values. 289 Figure 4 shows the cumulative frequency curves of IRDG for the grids at different scales. As the grid scales increase from 50 m to 250 m, the domain interval with grey colour decreases. Thus, the calibrated parameter B in terms of IRDG curves is less varied as the grid scale increases (Fig. 5). The B value ranges between 0.30 and 6.98 for the 50-m grid scale—much larger than that of the 250 m grid scale (0.40–1.56). The domain interval for parameter B decreases markedly as the grid scale increases from 50 m to 100 m, i.e. from 6.68 to 2.31. The decrease becomes smaller as the grid scale is larger than 100 m: from 1.61 to 1.15 for 150- and 250-m grid scales, respectively (Fig. 5). The mean value of B has the same trend; it decreases from 3.64 to 0.98 as the grid scale increases from 50 m to 250 m (Fig. 5). The calibrated mean value of B is 0.84 for the whole catchment scale. The results above indicate that spatial variation among the larger grids becomes less significant because large grids include more topographic conditions and tend to have similar statistical characteristics. It may be seen from Fig. 5 that the value of B reaches a relatively stable state when the grid scale is larger than 100 m. This more stable grid scale can be used as a representative unit for catchment computation, because the statistical characteristics of topographic conditions for different grids behave similarly. In this study, we selected the scale, 200 m × 200 m as the representative unit, because both the mean and variation of B values become relatively stable at this scale. 3.2 Model calibration and validation The model parameters for Jiangwan catchment were calibrated and validated against the observed discharge at the outlet of Jiangwan station. Two models were executed at a 15-min time step to study flood events and at a daily time step to study long-term water balance. Table 2 Catchment average results for statistical values of topographic index (TI) within a grid at different DEM scales. DEM Maximum value Minimum value Mean value Median value. Standard deviation 50 m 60 m 70 m 80 m 90 m 100 m 150 m 200 m 250 m 8.76 9.15 9.52 9.84 10.15 10.44 11.75 12.64 13.38 3.26 3.12 3.02 2.92 2.83 2.76 2.53 2.34 2.24 5.40 5.43 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.32 5.27 5.25 5.17 5.60 5.60 5.61 5.60 5.60 5.58 5.60 5.60 5.57 1.42 1.48 1.54 1.60 1.64 1.68 1.84 1.93 2.01 Jintao Liu et al. Fig. 4 Cumulative frequency curves of relative topographic index, IRDG, for different grid scales. Value of parameter B Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 290 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 DEM resolution (m) Fig. 5 Value of parameter B in the Xinanjiang model, as a function of DEM resolution. Before the calibration, initial values for all the parameters were given. As parameters K and Wm are related to the average climate and surface conditions of the study region, the initial values were taken as K = 0.8 and Wm = 100 mm, according to Zhao (1984). Due to the unevenness of rainfall over a long period, SM for the daily time step was less than for a shorter time step. Therefore, it was initially given as 5 mm and 15 mm for daily and 15-min time step models, respectively. The initial values of ex , Ki and Kg were set to 1.0, 0.35 and 0.35, respectively. The Manning’s roughness coefficients for all of the grids within the catchment were defined according to the land-use information: The value for forest land varies from to 0.100 to 0.230 (Liu et al. 2009). In this catchment, a fixed initial value of 0.100 was chosen, as the catchment is covered by bamboo forest. The statistical results of the model performance for the calibration period of 1971–1979 and the validation period of 1980–1986 are presented in Tables 3 and 4 for the daily and 15-min time step, respectively. The calibrated values of K and Wm are 0.85 and 90 mm, respectively; SM is 6 mm for the daily time step and 14 mm for the 15-min time step; ex , Ki , Kg and Manning’s n are 1.2, 0.44, 0.36 and 0.126, respectively. 3.3 Discussion of the model performance The distributed and semi-distributed models followed the same performance pattern during the calibration and validation periods at the daily time step and quarter-hourly time step. For the daily time step, the efficiency coefficient, R2ec , simulated by the distributed model ranges from 0.57 to 0.91 with a mean value 0.74 for the calibration period and ranges from 0.51 to 0.82 with a mean value of 0.72 for the validation period. The minimum, maximum and mean values for the semi-distributed model are 0.56, 0.91 and 0.76 for the calibration period and 0.51, 0.82 and 0.73 for the validation period. Overall, the simulated Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index 291 Table 3 Model performance statistics for the calibration period (1971–1979) and validation period (1980–1986) at the daily time step using distributed and semi-distributed Xinanjiang model structure. Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 Period Statistical criterion Distributed model Semi-distributed model Min. Max. Ave. Min. Max. Ave. Calibration R2 cc RBv RBp 0.57 –0.07 –0.27 0.91 0.15 0.17 0.74 0.04 0.03 0.56 –0.05 –0.26 0.91 0.16 0.17 0.76 0.05 0.03 Validation R2 cc RBv RBp 0.51 –0.25 –0.58 0.82 0.14 0.21 0.72 –0.06 –0.08 0.51 –0.24 –0.55 0.82 0.15 0.22 0.73 –0.04 –0.08 Period Statistical criterion Distributed model Semi-distributed model Runoff volume Peak flow Runoff volume Peak flow Cali bration a b R2 cc 1.009 167.4 0.870 1.1683 −0.098 0.725 1.013 153.5 0.871 1.168 −0.128 0.727 Validation a b R2 cc 0.859 257.9 0.948 0.640 4.088 0.605 0.864 242.3 0.949 0.648 3.894 0.613 Note: Max., Min. and Ave. refer to maximum, minimum and average values of statistical criteria, respectively. The definitions of the statistical criteria are found in Section 2.3. Table 4 Model performance statistics for the calibration period (1971–1979) and validation period (1980–1986) at the 15-min time step using distributed and semi-distributed Xinanjiang model structure. Period Statistical criterion Distributed model Semi-distributed model Min. Max. Ave. Min. Max. Ave. Calibration R2 cc RBv RBp PTe (h) 0.49 –0.17 –0.35 –2 0.96 0.23 0.18 2.25 0.77 0.12 –0.04 0.34 0.50 –0.17 –0.36 –2 0.96 0.22 0.17 2.25 0.77 0.12 –0.04 0.34 Validation R2 cc RBv RBp PTe (h) 0.52 –0.19 –0.46 –0.50 0.91 0.32 0.38 3.50 0.74 0.04 –0.15 0.87 0.52 –0.19 –0.47 –0.50 0.92 0.31 0.38 3.50 0.74 0.04 –0.15 0.87 Period Statistical criterion Distributed model Semi-distributed model Runoff volume Peak flow Runoff volume Peak flow Calibration a b R2 cc 0.883 –0.303 0.918 0.512 15.65 0.900 0.882 –0.274 0.919 0.516 15.55 0.902 Validation a b R2 cc 0.898 6.706 0.892 1.324 −3.052 0.941 0.898 6.827 0.893 1.325 −3.133 0.940 Note: Max., Min. and Ave. refer to maximum, minimum and average values of statistical criteria, respectively. The definitions of the statistical criteria are found in Section 2.3. runoff volumes in the validation period are larger than those of the calibration period for the two models. The average relative bias for runoff volume, RBv , ranges from 0.04 to 0.06 for the distributed model and from 0.04 to 0.05 for the semi-distributed model. The relative bias for peak flow, RBp , has a similar pattern to RBv in Table 3. The linear regression analysis also indicates that the two models’ results are closely matched. The accuracy of the simulated runoff volume is somewhat higher than that of the simulated peak flow for a daily time step. This is because, at a longer time step, simulation aims to assess the Jintao Liu et al. long-term water balance. Daily averaged data are not useful for predicting the peak discharge especially in small basins which are characterized by flash flood events. Simulation results at quarter-hourly time steps are similar to those of daily time step (Table 4). Generally, the semi-distributed model outperformed the distributed model when only the streamflow at the outlet of the catchment was used for evaluation. The results are somewhat surprising as one would expect a larger difference in the simulated results between these two models. The reason for this can be partly explained by the fact that the models adopt the same structure in flow routing, except for the parameterization scheme within each grid for parameter B. Moreover, though the predicted peak discharge and runoff volume at the outlet are very close, it is considered unreasonable to select discharge at the outlet as the sole criterion without considering the spatial heterogeneity of internal fluxes and state variables for model assessment. The aim of the distributed model is to generate a detailed description of the spatial heterogeneity of internal fluxes and state variables. This spatial heterogeneity has a more significant influence on streamflow during the initial onset of drought than during wet conditions. This is seen in differences of simulated results of these two models in terms of initial soil moisture saturation ratio, ISMSr (=W 0 /Wm ). As shown in Fig. 6, most flood events have a high ISMSr value. The events with ISMSr values larger than 0.80 (0.95) are about 84% (40%) and the number of events with ISMSr value less than 0.7 is only four. As the initial soil moisture content among most of the flood events is close to saturation and rainfall volume is mostly centred in several time steps after the flood event begins, the average soil moisture storage will quickly achieve its maximum capacity Wm in the model and a large part of rainfall is converted to runoff. Different runoff yielding modules in the PBr (%) Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 292 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 ISMSr 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 Fig. 6 Relative peak discharge bias, PBr as a function of initial soil moisture saturation ratio, ISMSr . two models will play a relatively minor role compared with the flow routing model and thus the two models behave similarly. When the ISMSr is larger than or equals to 0.90, the mean value of the simulated bias (PBr ) is less than 1%. However, differences of simulated streamflow from initial drought conditions for the distributed and semi-distributed models become relatively significant. Figure 6 shows that the lower ISMSr is always accompanied by a larger peak bias between the two models. In the four events (start times: 08:00 h on 18 September 1964; 0:00 h on 5 August 1972; 0:00 h on 19 August 1974; and 12:00 h on 4 October 1983) the ISMSr values are 0.66, 0.63, 0.62 and 0.68, respectively; the RBp is 4.5, –11.4, –3.3 and –15.2% for the distributed model, and 8.3, –12.8, –3.3 and –13.4% for the semi-distributed model. The R2 ec values for the distributed model are 0.89, 0.84, 0.94 and 0.66, respectively, and for the semi-distributed model, 0.86, 0.83, 0.94 and 0.67, respectively. The distributed model behaves a little better than the semi-distributed model. Spatial variation of the simulated soil moisture content further demonstrates the influences of differences in the model structure. Figure 7 shows the rainfall and soil moisture saturation ratio hydrograph from 08:00 h on 18 September 1964 to 01:45 h on 20 September. Soil moisture saturation ratio maps at six time steps (12:15, 17:15, 20:00 and 22:00 h on 18 September 1964; 01:45 and 08:15 h on 19 September 1964: marked by dashed lines) were selected to show the discrepancy in simulated spatial variables between these two models (Fig. 8). It is shown that the soil moisture near the riparian area was saturated faster in the distributed model simulation. The soil moisture maps simulated by the semi-distributed model do not show this trend and the soil moisture appears to be strongly influenced by the rainfall distribution instead of runoff variation. Therefore, the distributed model has demonstrated greater ability in reasonably predicting the spatial distribution of hydrological variables. The differences in description of soil moisture contents by the two models would influence streamflow discharges. As shown in Fig. 9, the overall PDb is generally greater than zero, indicating that simulated discharge of the distributed model is larger than that of the semi-distributed models. The extreme positive value of PDb is closely correlated with an abrupt variation of soil moisture saturation ratio, SMSr (W/Wm ). A further analysis in Fig.10 demonstrates that PDb greater than 0.01 has some 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 Time 1964-9-18 1964-9-18 1964-9-18 1964-9-18 1964-9-18 1964-9-18 1964-9-18 1964-9-18 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-19 1964-9-20 8:00:00 10:00:00 12:00:00 14:00:00 16:00:00 18:00:00 20:00:00 22:00:00 0:00:00 2:00:00 4:00:00 6:00:00 8:00:00 10:00:00 12:00:00 14:00:00 16:00:00 18:00:00 20:00:00 22:00:00 0:00:00 2.00 1.50 0.80 Soil Moisture Saturation Ratio 1.00 0.90 Rainfall 0.50 0.95 0.85 0.00 Fig. 7 Rainfall and soil moisture saturation ratio hydrograph for a flood event that started at 08:00 h on 18 September 1964. SMSr 1.00 Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index 293 Rainfall (mm) 1964/9/18 22:00 Distributed Model 1964/9/19 8:15 Semi-distributed Model 1964/9/19 1:45 Distributed Model 1964/9/19 1:45 1964/9/19 8:15 Semi-distributed Model 1964/9/18 22:00 Semi-distributed Model 1964/9/18 17:15 Semi-distributed Model Fig. 8 Simulated soil moisture saturation ratio, SMSr of the distributed and semi-distributed models for the flood event that started at 08:00 h on 18 September 1964 to 01:45 h on 20 September 1964. Distributed Model Semi-distributed Model 1964/9/18 20:00 1964/9/18 20:00 1964/9/18 17:15 1964/9/18 12:15 1964/9/18 12:15 Distributed Model Distributed Model Semi-distributed Model Distributed Model Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 294 Jintao Liu et al. -0.2 1971-1-1 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1972-1-1 1973-1-1 1974-1-1 1975-1-1 1976-1-1 1977-1-1 1978-1-1 1979-1-1 Time 1980-1-1 1981-1-1 1982-1-1 1983-1-1 Fig. 9 Simulated daily discharge bias, PDb and soil moisture saturation ratio, SMSr from 1 July 1971 to 31 December 1986. PDb (m3/s) 0.7 Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 1984-1-1 1985-1-1 1986-1-1 Soil moisture Saturation Ratio,SMSr Simulated Daily Discharge Bias,PDb 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index 295 SMSr 296 Jintao Liu et al. 0.65 300 250 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 Increment of SMSr Fig. 10 Simulated daily discharge bias, PDb (≥0.01) as a function of soil moisture saturation ratio increments for two adjacent days. Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 #23 #63 #22 L.R.L. #43 L.R.L. #71 L.R.L. 200 DC (m) PDb (m3/s) 0.55 #22 #43 #71 #23 L.R.L. #63 L.R.L. relationship with the increments of the soil moisture saturation ratio between the initial and peak time of a flood hydrograph (mostly one day for the daily computation). The greater the increment of SMSr , the greater the value of the predicted discharge bias, PDb . The distributed model was developed according to the variable source area concept by TOPMODEL. The model is capable of showing that saturated excess runoff starts from the area with higher value of TI, i.e. riparian zone. Our field experiment on five hillslopes in the study catchment also demonstrates that the soil moisture content is inversely proportional to the distance from the sample sites to channel segments (Fig. 11). During a heavy rainfall, the distributed model can catch the large discharge primarily produced in the area of the large SMSr while the semi-distributed model flattens the flood discharge because of averaged SMSr . Thus the predicted discharges of the distributed model shown in Figs 9 and 10 are larger than those of the semi-distributed model. The above comparison indicates that if the models are evaluated only by the discharge at the outlet and without considering spatial variability of state variables and process parameters, e.g. soil moisture or flow fluxes, the distributed model will not outperform the semi-distributed model. That is to say, a further investigation would be meaningful to study the parameterization and verification of grid-based conceptual distributed models with detailed spatial information. 4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS In this study, we developed a grid-based distributed model for simulation of streamflow at different temporal resolutions based on the Xinanjiang model. The distributed model includes the soil moisture storage 150 100 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 Volume water content (%) 30 35 Fig. 11 Relationship between soil moisture content and distance to channel (DC) and linear regression lines (LRL) for five selected hillslopes (#22, #23, #43, #63 and #71). capacity curve within a grid, which is derived by integrating the TOPMODEL’s topographic index with the soil moisture storage. Through comparative study of the semi-distributed model with the distributed model at different spatial resolutions, we investigated how the statistical characteristics of soil moisture storage impact the streamflow simulation in the Jianwan catchment in China’s Zhejiang province. The study results demonstrate that variations of topographic wetness index, TI and the Xinanjiang model’s parameter, B, for different grid scales reflect the spatial heterogeneity within a grid. However, the domain interval and mean of the parameter B decrease as the grid scale increases. The results indicate that spatial variation among the larger grids becomes less significant because the large grids include more topographic conditions and tend to behave with similar statistical characteristics. After the two models were calibrated and validated against observed discharge data, the performances of the models was assessed using different statistical criteria. It was somewhat surprising that the overall results were very close for these two models and that the semi-distributed model performed as well as the distributed model for the study catchment when discharge at the outlet of the catchment was used as a sole criterion. The possible explanation is that the two models have a similar structure except for the model parameterization scheme. The differences of simulated streamflow under initial drought conditions for the distributed and semi-distributed models become more significant than that in wet conditions because the distributed model describes the spatial heterogeneity of internal fluxes and state variables in more detail. Downloaded by [Jintao Liu] at 05:12 24 February 2012 Grid parameterization of the Xinanjiang model using a sub-grid topographic index Another finding of comparing these two models’ results for quarter-hourly and daily time step simulations is that the predicted peak discharge discrepancy would likely occur during a heavy storm rainfall when the soil moisture is abruptly changed. The possible explanation is that the averaged and spatially distributed parameterization schemes result in different runoff yielding mechanisms during rainfall events. The distributed model is able to simulate spatial distribution of soil moisture content and thus reflects the runoff generation mechanism more correctly. The simulated spatial distribution pattern of soil moisture content in the distributed model was justified to some extent by a field observation experiment. We found that soils near the channel segments tend to have a higher value of water content. This finding demonstrates, in part, the distributed model’s superiority in model structure. The distributed model still needs to be verified with detailed spatial information, if available. This also was the main limitation of this study, that is, we did not have detailed spatially distributed data to calibrate and validate the distributed model structure, a recommended topic for future study. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41030636, 40801013, 40930635, 51190090 and 51079038), the Key Research Grant from Chinese Ministry of Education (308012), the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK2010516), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project (201003572), the Special Fund of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (2009585312 and 2010585612) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2009B06414). The manuscript was edited by Kyle D. Hoagland and Rachael Hoagland. Thanks to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the earlier manuscript that led to a great improvement of the article. REFERENCES Beven, K., Kirkby, M.J., Schofield, N. and Togg, A.F., 1984. Testing a physically-based flood forecasting model (TOPMODEL) for three U.K. catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 69, 119–143. 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