Mitigation of air pollution and climate Change in China
Workshop organized by CICERO and ECON Analysis
Oslo, October 17-19 2004
Sponsored by the Research Council of Norway and Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Summary of presentations and discussions by
Mun S. Ho, Pernille Holtedahl, Kristin Aunan and Hans Martin Seip
November 1, 2004
Note: This is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of the workshop for someone
who did not attend the sessions. And certainly not a “lessons learnt from the workshop”
paper. This is just a quick set of notes that may help to remind the participants of the key
points in the papers, with some personal observations added. The other kind of paper
would require a much more serious effort.
There were two broad themes in the workshop “Household behavior and indoor
air pollution” and “Growth, Trade, Environment and Policy.” These will be discussed
separately and in order.
Hans Martin Seip began by giving a summary of the two previous workshops. He
noted that the “Copenhagen Consensus” (Bjorn Lomborg discussions) put climate change
at the bottom of the top ten issues to deal with, however, this workshop include local
health issues that may even appeal to that group.
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Household behavior and indoor air pollution
The 9 papers presented discuss the extent of the problem in two dimensions, the
contribution to climate change and the effect of human health. Some papers discuss the
size of the problem and the measurement issues (Sinton, Streets, Fang et al), others
describe the efforts to estimate health and environmental impacts (Aunan, Ortiz et al, Pan
et al, Liu et al), and some discuss policy considerations (Larson, Florig). Some are
completed papers where this summary can repeat their estimates and conclusions; others
are progress reports that we have to await the final estimates.
Jonathan Sinton (with Kirk Smith and Rufus Edwards)
“Implications for GHG Emissions of Evolving Patterns of Stove and Fuel Use in China’s
Rural Households”
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Survey of rural household stoves and fuel use in 3 provinces
composition of household fuels differs substantially between provinces; each
household may also use different stoves and fuels at the same time
despite big increase in LPG, biomass is still dominant, also high coal use
official data show high dissemination of “improved stoves” but some questions
about definition of improved and being correctly used
Asks: Is biomass a renewable that really has a lower GWP (global warming
potential)? Or does it have a high GWP when we include all elements?
Suggests: Need regular national survey of household fuel use patterns
David Streets
”Present and Future Contributions of the Household Sector to Emissions of Black Carbon
in China”
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Black carbon (BC) is important for climate change AND for damages to health,
materials and agriculture
Jim Hansen calc. that BC could be the 2nd or 3rd highest radiative forcing agent
after CO2 and CH4 in the period 1850-2000.
Bond, Streets et. al. (2004) has global inventory of BC.
China has ¼ of world BC which is dominated by biomass burning
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In China 1 mill. tons BC produced; ¾ from households, 10% from industry,
10% from transportation
But projections under most scenarios indicate BC from households falling
substantially. Of this smaller future BC emissions they will be dominated by crop
residues and fuelwood, instead of coal today.
In order to achieve this projected fall in BC one may need to include it in a postKyoto climate treaty
Need information on BC emission factors to get a good estimate of total
emissions.
Eric Larson
“Environmental and economic implications of phasing out direct use of sold fuels for
cooking”
• Big majority of rural households use solid fuels
• Rapid increase in LPG use but still small share, future increase may be
constrained by world supply (high prices)
• CH3OCH3 (DME) from coal is a feasible alternative to LPG if co-produced with
electricity and at P(oil)>$30/barrel. At higher oil prices, windfall profits could
accrue to DME producers. Windfall profits tax could help subsidize low-income
households to increase DME affordability.
• Co-producing DME + electricity from coal results in net coal savings relative to
separate stand-alone production of each.
• DME-from-coal is not commercially implemented today, but at least one major
project is in planning in China.
Keith Florig
“Insights from an Integrated Systems Perspective of Household Fuels and Health in
China”
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Many countries have seen shift from solid fuels to cleaner fuels without
government intervention, just the effects of income growth. Can this also happen
quickly in China?
Observed changes in behavior as Chinese income grew is not fuel switching but
more energy use. Switching only at quite high incomes. Notes that higher
incomes, by increasing house size and more health care, reduces damages
Should identify all beneficiaries of solid fuel reductions to build support beyond
immediate household members – educators worried about sick children, health
dept trying to reduce public health spending, agriculture dept worried about low
output from sick farmers, etc…
Focusing only on GHG effects may leave out consideration of some policy
choices that benefits all these local stakeholders
Kristin Aunan
“The climate impact of the household sector in China – backyard solutions to global
problems?”
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What do we lose in climate analysis if we ignore China’s biomass use, and other
household fuels?
Household sector alone is responsible for 70% of China BC, 30% of CH4, 40%
nmVOC.
Model climate effect of BC using 2 global models
Effect of BC on climate not well understood currently. Preliminary estimates
indicate household BC radiative forcing is greater than CO2 and tropospheric O3,
corresponding to 2.5% of global average radiative forcing from GHG.
Ramon Ortiz (with Bjorn Larsen)
“A framework to consider health effects of indoor air pollution in the China
Environmental Cost Model”
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Add information on household pollution to World Bank China Environmental
Cost Model
Notes difficulties in measuring indoor pollution effects, we need to better
understand relation between indoor and outdoor concentrations.
Conducting a literature review to gather information on solid fuel use, identify
health endpoints that are strongly or moderately linked to indoor solid fuel use –
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, acute respiratory infections, lung cancer,
asthma; best estimates of odds-ratio; identify effects for separate demographic
groups.
PAN Xiao-chuan (with Wang Jing, Qi Qiping, Xu Dongqun)
“Studies of Health Effects of Indoor Air Pollution in China”
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Summarizes a series of studies on the nature of indoor air pollutants in urban and
rural households, and their health effects.
6-city survey of urban households shows that the dominant pollutants are
ammonia, formaldehyde, VOC, and allergens from furniture and household
furnishings. Measured concentrations exceed government standards.
Case control studies show formaldehyde concentration is statistically significantly
related to asthma attacks.
Effect on leukemia not clear, more closely linked to smoking.
Survey of 2 rural provinces indicate high concentrations of PM10
FANG Jinghua (with Li Hongge)
“Household energy and indoor particulate pollution: investigation and measurement in
villages-in-town of Taiyuan”
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Survey of “villages-in-town”, poorly managed, but not poor, parts of Taiyuan
with many temporary residents.
Survey characteristics of household fuel use and pollution levels of PM10, PPAH.
Most use LPG used for cooking, all use coal for heating in small boilers.
Very high measured concentration of PM in both winter and summer, far
exceeding city averages and national standards, 3 to 6 times outdoor concentration
Raw coal worse than briquettes; but no big differences in non-heating season.
Big contribution to concentration from outside sources
LIU Li (with Steinar Larssen, Cao Jie, Zhang Daisheng)
“Area sources and their importance for population exposure, Taiyuan”
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High levels of concentration of TSP (mean=.4 mg/m3) and SO2 in Taiyuan,
exceeding national standards on most days. NOx concentration has been rising.
Database for dispersion model include more than 1000 sources, about 250
modeled as large point sources, rest as area sources.
Use AirQUIS system to model concentrations; population by 1kmx1km grid;
together estimate exposures.
Examine effect on exposures due to SO2 reductions from electric power plant and
households. Largest improvements are given by controls on area sources.
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Growth, Trade, Environment and Policy
This is a somewhat mixed group of papers but contains important suggestions for
policy and cooperation. Li Shantong gave an overview of the current situation and
government concerns, a group of papers discuss economic-environmental modeling
issues emphasizing how consideration of the whole economy may lead to surprising
results such as no net reduction in emissions (Ho et al, He et al, Vennemo et al,
Glomsrod, Fæhn). Ho et al and Holland et al. describe integrated projects that estimate air
pollution and costs & benefits of control policies. Hu Tao and Heggelund discuss policy
making by the government, and Li give a case study for a CDM.
Mun Ho (with Dale Jorgenson)
“Growth policies and environmental policies in China”
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Harvard-Tsinghua project to study outdoor air pollution and control policies
Estimate emissions of TSP and SO2 by industry
Air dispersion modeling of TSP, SO2 and secondary SO4
Est. exposures to the most polluting industries using population distribution data
and “intake fraction” method.
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Est. value of health damages by industry
Simulate effects of green taxes on output and fuel use. Conclude that benefits in
the form of reduced damages far exceed the costs to economic performance.
Notes the weaknesses of underlying data and parameter estimates.
LI Shantong
“The challenges for China’s economic development in the future”
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Notes that although the structure of the economy is shifting from agriculture to
manufacturing and services, the share of services in GDP is smaller than other
comparable countries. Natural resources per capita are much smaller than world
average; government share of GDP is smaller than other countries’; public health
infrastructure is poor.
There is growing inequality – between coastal and western regions, between
urban and rural. There are gaps in the levels of incomes and gaps in the growth
rates; the richer seems to grow faster.
The goals of the government now: rural development, social development,
environmental protection, economic reform.
Haakon Vennemo et. al.
“Environmental implications of China’s WTO-accession”
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Model the impact of joining the World Trade Organization using the CGE model
that is extended to include emissions of PM, SO2, NOx, VOC, CO2, CH4, N20.
Examine the various hypothesis – green dumping hypothesis that expanding
industries are dirtier; technique hypothesis that production methods are cleaner;
scale hypothesis that richer means more consumption and pollution.
Find that the industries that expand are the cleaner ones (e.g. apparel) and the
reduction in emissions due to the change in industries composition exceeds the
increase in emissions due to the faster shift from agriculture to manufacturing and
the special expansion of the automobile industry. TSP and SO2 emissions fall,
but NOx and VOC rises, the net effect on public health is a reduction in damages.
HE Jianwu
“A 3-region CGE-model for China with environmental features”
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Describe the extension of the China Development Research Center CGE model of
China (same model as above) to have 3 explicit regions – Guangdong, Shanxi,
Rest.
Techniques to estimate inter-regional trade and capital flows, extra data for coal
flows
Issue of modeling biomass demand and supply
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Model includes emissions (see Vennemo above) and health effects and crop
damage.
Solveig Glomsrod
“How efficient is the Clean Development Mechanism in reducing carbon emissions? The
case of coal-cleaning in China”
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Issue of “leakage” in CDM projects, i.e. total emission reductions may be smaller
when broader considerations are taken into account
Use CGE model to estimate economy wide effects of a coal cleaning CDM
project. Cleaner coal -> more heat per ton, lower emissions per joule; lower
demand on scarce transportation resources.
If the CDM project pays for this cleaner coal, the effective coal price will fall,
encouraging higher demand. The transportation demand by coal falls, leading to a
lower price of transportation and higher use by other sectors.
Net effect is higher energy use and higher emissions
Discussion by group: Should such net effects be normalized to consumption?
Taran Fæhn
“Experiences with analyzing trade-environment nexus in Norwegian CGE models”
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Many worry that trade liberalization may lead to higher emissions, e.g. “pollution
haven” hypothesis.
Estimate effect on Norway using Statistiks Norway Model, and also calculate the
effects on emissions in partner countries to get net global effect.
Norway generates much cheap electricity from hydro and gas; the trade
liberalization will lead to an expansion of electricity intensive industries and
increase the use of fossil fuels to generate electricity. The “composition effect”
thus raises Norwegian emissions.
The small income effect from higher incomes (richer work less) is to reduce
output and hence emissions.
A unilateral environmental policy in Norway will result in a loss of
competitiveness, and dirty industries will shrink, however, the expansion in the
rest of the world will mean that total world emissions is reduced by less than the
local reduction.
LI Liping (with Tian Chunxiu, Hu Tao)
“Greenhouse gas emission reduction from Shijiazhuang Iron & Steel”
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UNEP project for cleaner production and energy efficiency (CP-EE)
3 policies analyzed:
1) replacing incandescent lamps will save the plant 300,000 yuan/year and reduce
CO2 by 600 tons.
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2) improvements of converter furnace will save 7.4 million yuan/year
3) improvements of cooling water tower.
HU Tao (with Haakon Vennemo)
“Impacts of co-benefit analysis on air pollution control policy in China”
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Total Emission Control (TEC) is the current policy in China targeting 12 local
pollutants.
If GHG is added to the list of pollutants in TEC this may result in different
policies and different costs.
The additional costs should be considered by CDM project sponsors since the
total global benefits of an explicit GHG consideration is higher than considering
just the local pollutants alone.
SEPA has recently decided to make co-benefits (the co-control of air pollution
and greenhouse gas emissions) an area of priority.
Mike Holland
“Developing Air Quality Management strategies in Liaoning”
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Integrated Environmental Programme in Liaoning province started in 5 cities.
Develop emission inventories; develop air monitoring; use of air dispersion
models; quantification of health impacts; knowledge of control strategies;
quantification of costs and benefits
In dispersion modeling, only 40% of PM10 is attributable to known local sources,
the rest is due to regional and fugitive sources. Hence should pay attention to
regional effects, suggest use of RiskPoll Model.
Case studies conducted indicate a high benefit:cost ratio of pollution control.
Recommends: get a consensus for dose-response, valuations to avoid reinventing
the wheel by different researchers; the public good of a database of control
techniques.
Gørild Heggelund
“China’s development challenges and climate policy: CDM projects, energy and health”
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What are the Chinese government views on climate change treaties and how are
they shaped by their priorities in poverty reduction and modernization?
This is regarded as a foreign policy matter and hence affected by other foreign
policy concerns.
Initial skepticism of JI and CDMs is replaced by pragmatism, the National
Development and Reform Commission set up authority for managing CDM
projects. Like to focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency improvement and
recovery of methane.
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Suggest considering biomass CDM projects already in place in Thailand and
Malaysia for possible replication in China. Highlight the contribution to rural
health that has not been a priority for the government.
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Discussions
In connection to the difficulty of attributing damages to particular sources or
industries, H.M. Seip described his current study of the toxicity and composition of
particles, how they are very different in different cities. Mike Holland also mentioned the
difficulties encountered by ExternE project in attributing by toxicity.
David Streets noted that there is an inverted relation between pollution and city
size (the middle sized cities are the worst polluted). Is the reported fall in average TSP
concentration due to the incomplete coverage of all cities?
In relation to the little interest the government has shown in climate change,
David Streets point out that PM and O3 affect China’s own climate, there is no simple
local-global dichotomy. On the other hand, Hu Tao noted that climate policies may result
in the poor being even worse off.
The robustness of economic models and how to communicate uncertainty to
decision makers were discussed.
There was a discussion of reducing indoor pollution being a win-win situation and
yet it is not implemented, nor is it a high priority for the government. The situation is
likely to improve as a result of economic growth, but this will probably take decades for a
large share of the population. Targeted policies may increase the rate of change, however,
the awareness among Chinese policymakers about the impacts of energy use in rural and
peri-urban households on public health may not be very high. Documenting how this
source category also contributes to regional pollution and global warming may enhance
attention received by this sector.
Better integration between policy areas requires integration at all levels, from the
research communities to policy making arenas. Pan Xiao-Chuan pointed at the usefulness
of having interdisciplinary workshops like this one, and indicated that these so far have
been rare in a Chinese context.
Hu Tao emphasized that if we want to have more influence on decision-making,
it's not enough to do only scientific work telling the decision-makers how large the cobenefits are. It is necessary to do policy-oriented research and show how accounting for
co-benefits may alter the apparent efficiency of existing policies, and then to provide
options for policy adjustment for decision-makers. Such policy-oriented work is more
easily communicated to decision-makers and hence will more likely lead to action. Hu
Tao suggested having a policy-oriented workshop next year in Beijing to draw the
attention of China's decision-makers to the importance of co-benefits and to convince
them to take actions to adjust China's policies. He also mentioned that some similar work
on co-benefits is carried out in the USEPA IES project and suggested that a closer
cooperation would be fruitful. A joint workshop might be considered. Another possible
partner in a joint workshop is the Japan based IGES Institute.
Keith Florig suggested two future research projects which got the support from
the other workshop participants.
1.
Articulating the broader societal impacts of household solid fuels
The disease burden imposed by household stoves in China far exceeds that by any
other source of air pollution. One reason for the persistence of this problem is the limited
awareness among China’s opinion leaders of air pollution damage and its broader social
and economic impacts. It was recommended that a study be undertaken jointly by the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Ministry of Health, perhaps in cooperation
with foreign experts, to articulate the full impacts of residential solid fuels on Chinese
society. In addition to the direct disease burden, these impacts include effects on worker
productivity, child education, demand for health care services, quality of family life,
family savings, and the environment (e.g., acid rain and climate change). The study
would engage stakeholders in various affected sectors to help characterize the impacts of
disease caused by indoor air pollution on production of goods and services, education,
agriculture, and the health care system.
2.
Risk communication on household solid fuels
The complete remediation of China’s household solid fuels problem will require
the substitution of cleaner fuels, a process that is underway in many areas of China, but
that is likely to take decades as new infrastructure is constricted, and as households
become wealthy enough to afford cleaner energy services. In the short term, it may be
possible to significantly reduce the health toll from household stove emissions through a
communication program offering clear and low-cost prescriptions for family’s to reduce
their smoke and CO exposures. Such prescriptions might include keeping children away
from the cook stove during meal preparation, using electric fans to enhance kitchen
ventilation, or discouraging the use of small portable unvented coal-burning stoves in
enclosed spaces. Considerable research is needed to understand the effectiveness of
alternative mitigation measures. Expertise required for this effort would include exposure
analysis, social science and social and cognitive psychology. The proposed project would
identify an appropriate Chinese government agency or Chinese NGO to champion and
distribute the communication. Monitoring of the program effectiveness would be needed
to fine tune and justify the communication efforts.