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Lecture at
气候变化与水资源模拟: 进展与挑战
Chongyu Xu 许崇育
University of Oslo
许崇育
Climate change and
Hydrological impact modeling:
achievements and challenges
挪威奥斯陆大学
Chong-yu Xu
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Chongyu Xu
http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/
Dept of Geosciences, University of Oslo
Where can you find me?
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
If you have the following problems
Too little water – drought
Too much water – flood
Pollution
Erosion
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Issues in catchment management
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Water resources management
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Flood management
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Water supply, hydropower
Irrigation and drainage
Social, economic, environmental
Flood forecasting, risk analysis,
damage analyses
Planning of protective and
controlling structures (dams, dikes,
gates)
Optimization of the reservoir
system (maximize the profit)
Dam break scenarios
Water quality management
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Waste water purification & outlets
Reservoirs
Toxic and harmful releases
Eutrophication
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Watershed erosion management
– Agricultural & forestry practices
– Ecosystem conservation
Sediment management
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Reservoirs,
Morphological changes
Dredging
Land use management
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Urban development,
Agriculture & forestry practices
Re-settlement
Infrastructure planning
Social, cultural, and economic
interests
Catchment management
hydrologic view
• Catchment management is to find best solution and
balance between:
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Water available (quantity, quality)
Water demand (quantity, quality)
Water transportation/delivety/use efficiency
Others
• Water logging and salinization, flooding, etc.
• erosion and sediment load, etc.
• Sustainable management means that the solution we
made and the balance we achieved have no negative
effect to our next generations.
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Components of catchment management systems
Climate system:
Precipitation, temperature, etc
Hydrologic system:
Watershed, streams, etc
Climate model
Hydrological model
Water availability
Regulatory
requirements
Hydraulic
constructions: dam,
reservoirs, etc
Reservoirs:
Water control
Water control
Water supply & allocation
Natural system
requirements
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Human
requirements
Water management
Model
Application of hydrologic models
DESIGN
Dams & reservoirs
design
water yield
capacity, failure
Floods
frequency
mapping
Urbanization
storm drains
flood plains
channel alterations
Irrigation & drainage
water yield
diversions
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OPERATION
Flow forecasting
Reservoir control
Urban storm drain
control
MANAGEMENT RESEARCH &
TEACHING
Water resources
assessment
Land-use change
Climate change
Point nonpoint
Pollution
Groundwater
recharge
University training
Industrial training
Research
• Background
– Climate will change (or has been changing)
due to greenhouse effect,
– Availability and variability of regional water
resources will be affected,
– GCMs have been used as the only available
tool for modeling future climate evolution,
– There are gaps between GCMs ability and
hydrology need.
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What a GCM looks like?
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Inputs and outputs of climate models
2 Atmospheric
composition
(gases, H2O, CO2, O3,
and aerosols)
3 Surface characteristics
(albedo, roughness,…)
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
1 Temperature, pressure,
wind,
2 Humidity, cloudness,
precipitation,
3 Runoff,
evapotranspiration, soil
moisture
Accuracy declines
• Inputs: Main forcings or • Outputs: climatologic
boundary conditions:
and hydrologic
variables:
1 Solar radiation
What a hydrological model looks like?
Lumped model
Semi-distributed
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What a hydrological model looks like?
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
Spatial mismatch between GCM and
hydrological models
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
Chongyu Xu
http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/
Dept of Geosciences, University of Oslo
Gaps between GCM ability and
hydrological demand
Ability
Gaps
Better
Simulated
Less-well
Simulated
Not-well
Simulated
New models
Working
Variable
mismatch
Wind speed
Temperature
Air pressure
Precipitation
Runoff
Macro-scale
Cloudiness Soil moisture hydrological
Humidity
Evaporation
models
Vertical
Scale
mismatch
500 hPa
800 hPa
Earth
Surface
Statistical
downscaling
Spatial
Scales
mismatch
Global
300*300 Km
Regional
50*50 Km
Local
0-50 Km
Dynamic &
statistical
downscaling
Temporal
Scales
mismatch
Mean
annual
Mean
monthly
Daily or
shorter
Bucket –
SVAT
GCMs ability increases
Hydrological importance increases
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
Hydrological modeling under changing
climate
Emission
scenarios
GCM
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
Chongyu Xu
Downscaling
Regional Hydrologic
Climate modeling
scenario
Dynamic
downscaling
RCM
Routing
Dynamic
downscaling
RCM
MLHM
Dynamic
downscaling
RCM
Delta
change
LWBM
Statistical
downscaling
Delta
change
CHM
Hypothetic
Delta
change
CHM
http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/
Water resources scenarios
GCM
Dept of Geosciences, University of Oslo
Assessment of climate change impact on
water resources management
Landuse Change
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• My work in modeling
– Development and application of
hydrological models
• Global and continental scales water
balance modeling
• Catchment scale water balance
modeling
• Hillslope and local scales physically
based storm-runoff modeling
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
Example results of Global water balance model
Global Mean annual runoff
Average annual runoff in China.
Average annual runoff in
Northern Europe.
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
Example results of catchment modeling – subtropical catchments
Modeled actual evapotranspiration
Subtropical monsoon catchments in
Southern China
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Modeled soil moisture
Example results of storm floods modelling
Model structure:
•Fully distributed
•DEM and GIS supported
•Physically-based differential equations:
Discharge（m3/s)
Overland flow - St. Venant equations
Channel routing - kinematic wave and
Manning’s equation
Groundwater flow - continuity equation and
Darcy’s law
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Storm 92
0
50
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
100
150
Time（0.5h）
200
Thank you!
http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/
Signature (unit, name, etc.)
Chongyu Xu
http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/
Dept of Geosciences, University of Oslo
许崇育教授简历
奥斯陆大学
•
许崇育, 博士, 教授. 挪威奥斯陆大学地球科学系
– 主要从事的研究领域:
• 不同气候区域和不同时空尺度的水文模型的建立和应用
• 水文模型参数估计和不确定性检验方法的研究
• 流域蒸发能力和区域实际蒸发计算方法的研究
• 气候变化及其对水资源与水环境的影响的研究
– 获奖, 荣誉及兼职:
• 世界气象组织杰出青年科学家奖
• 中科院海外评审专家
• 南京大学城市与资源系兼职教授
• 武汉大学水文与水资源系兼职教授
• 中科院海外杰出人才
• 中国科学院北京地理资源所兼职教授
• 国际水文科学杂志编委
个人网页: http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/
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