Document of
The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No. 74618-LR
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION
MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY
COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY
FOR THE
REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA
FOR THE PERIOD FY13-FY17
July 1, 2013
International Development Association
West Africa Country Cluster 1
Africa Region
International Finance Corporation
Sub-Saharan Africa Department
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
Sub-Saharan Africa Department
The document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their duties.
Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed with The World Bank’s authorization. The date of the last Country Assistance Strategy Progress Report was June 2, 2011
CURRENCY EQUIVALENT as of June 18, 2013
Currency U
US$1
= Liberian Dollar (LR$)
= 74.5
REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA – FISCAL YEAR
July 1 – June 30
ABBREVIATION AND ACRONYMS
AAA
ACE
ADB
AFREA
AfT
AIDP
BEP
BOC
CARI
CASA
CEP
CRC
CMU
CPIA
CPS
CSA
CWIQ
DSA
DTIS
ECF
ECOWAS
EU
EPAG
FAO
FDI
GPOBA
GDP
Analytical and Advisory Activities
Africa Cable to Europe
African Development Bank
Africa Renewable Energy Agency
Agenda for Transformation
Agriculture and Infrastructure development project
Basic Education Project
Bureau of Concessions
Central Agriculture Research Institute
Conflict Affected States in Africa
Community Empowerment Project
Constitutional Review Committee
Country Management Unit
Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
Country Partnership Strategy
Civil Service Agency
Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire
Debt Sustainability Analysis
Diagnostic Trade Integration Study
Extended Credit Facility
Economic Community of West Africa States
European Union
Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls
Food and Agricultural Organization
Foreign Direct Investment
Global Partnership on Output-Based Aid
Gross Domestic Product
GEF
GOL
GPE
HD
HIES
HIPC
HSSP
IIU
ICT
IDA
IDF
IEG
IFAD
IFC
IITA
JCAS
JCASCR
KfW
LACE
LCEAP
LDA
LEC
LEITI
LFS
LIBRAMP
LICPA
LISGIS
LNAP
LRTF
MCA
MCC
MoCI
MDGs
MDTF
MoF
MoGD
MIGA
MoLME
MMR
MRU
MSMEs
MTEF
NIC
NLTA
PAC
Global Environment Facility
Government of Liberia
Global Partnership for Education
Human Development
Household Income and Expenditure Survey
Highly Indebted Poor Countries
Health Systems Strengthening Project
Infrastructure Implementation Unit
Information and Communication Technologies
International Development Association
Institutional Development Fund
Independence Evaluation Group
International Fund for Agricultural Development
International Finance Corporation
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture
Joint Country Assistance Strategy
Joint Country Assistance Strategy Completion Report
Kreditanstalt Für Wiederaufbau
Liberia Agency for Community Empowerment
Least Cost Energy Access Plan
Liberia Development Alliance
Liberian Electricity Corporation
Liberia Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative
Labor Force Survey
Liberia Road Asset Management Project
Liberian Institute of Certified Public Accountants
Liberian Institute of Statistics and Geo-information Services
Liberia National Action Plan
Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund
Millennium Challenge Account
Monrovia City Corporation
Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Millennium Development Goals
Multi Donor Trust Fund
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Gender and Development
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
Ministry of Lands, Mines and Energy
Maternal Mortality Rate
Mano River Union
Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise
Medium Term Expenditure Framework
National Investment Commission
Non Lending Technical Assistance
Public Accounts Committee
PBF
PEFA
PER
PFM
PPP
PREM
PRS
PRSC
PSDS
REDD
RREA
SEZ
SGBV
Sida
SMEs
SPF
SPSP
SREP
SSA
SSN
STCRSP
TFs
UNMIL
URIRP
USAID
WAAPP
WAPP
WARCIP
WASH
WBG
WBI
WDR
WSP
WTO
YES
UN Peace-building Fund
Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability
Public Expenditure Review
Public Financial Management
Public Private Partnership
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management
Poverty Reduction Strategy
Poverty Reduction Support Credit
Private Sector Development Strategy
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
Rural Renewable Energy Agency
Special Economic Zones
Sexual and Gender-based Violence
Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Small and Medium Enterprises
State and Peace Building Fund
Social Protection Strategy and Policy
Scaling up Renewable Energy Program
Sub Saharan African Countries
Social Safety Nets
Smallholder Tree Crop Revitalization Support Project
Trust Funds
United Nations Mission in Liberia
Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project
United States Agency for International Development
West Africa Agriculture Productivity Project
West Africa Power Pool
West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure Project
Water, Sanitation and Hygiene
World Bank Group
World Bank Institute
World Development Report
Water and Sanitation Program
World Trade Organization
Youth, Employment and Skills Project
IBRD/IDA
Makhtar
Diop
Vice President: Country Director/Manager Yusupha B. Crookes
Inguna Dobraja
Task Team Leaders Coleen R. Littlejohn
IFC
Jean Philippe Prosper
Yolande Duhem
Frank Douamba
Frank Ajilore
MIGA
Michel Wormser
Ravi Vish Stephan Dreyhaupt
The Liberia CPS was prepared with the collaboration of a core team who worked closely with the Task Team
Leaders and the Country Director: Errol Graham, Jariya Hoffman, Daniel K. Boakye, Michelle Rebosio, Anders
Jensen, Alan Moody, Cari Votava, Kobina Daniel, Marieme Esther Dassanou, Kulwinder Rao, Clemencia
Torres de Mastle, Zayra Romo, Deborah Isser, Emily Weedon, Keiko Inoue, Rianna L. Mohammed, Oliver
Braedt, Sachiko Kondo, Raymond Muhula, Ismaila Ceesay, Winter Chinamale, Maxwell Druku Dapaah, Gary
Fine, Richard James, Shubha Chakravarty, Waafas A. Ofosu-Amaah, Jenny Gold, Dawn Roberts, Chantal
Richey, Flavio Chaves, Peter Darvas, Radhika Srinivasan, Sergiy Kulyk, Joel Hellman, Richard Anson and Luis
Alvaro Sanchez. The team wants also to thank the Minister of Finance Amara Konneh and his team for the close
collaboration in preparing the CPS. The consultations with civil society, private sector, the media, and other
Development Partners provided very valuable feedback, which is incorporated in the document.
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................. I I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT ......................................................................................................... 2 Recent Developments and Fragility Context ..................................................................................... 2 Economic Context and Recent Economic Development .................................................................... 3 Poverty and Human Development Context ........................................................................................ 7 III. DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES AND GOVERNMENT AGENDA FOR
TRANSFORMATION ................................................................................................................ 10 Peace, Justice, Security and Rule of Law ........................................................................................ 10 Economic Transformation ............................................................................................................... 11 Human Development........................................................................................................................ 12 Governance and Public Institutions................................................................................................. 13 Cross-cutting Challenges ................................................................................................................. 15 Agenda for Transformation – Government Response to Key Development Challenges.................. 16 IV. LESSONS FROM PAST WORLD BANK EXPERIENCE ................................................. 17 V. WBG COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FY 13-17 .............................................. 18 Pillar I. Economic Transformation............................................................................................ 20 Pillar II. Human Development .................................................................................................... 26 Pillar III. Governance and Public Sector Institutions.................................................................. 28 VI. IMPLEMENTING THE CPS FY 13-17.............................................................................. 32 Financing Sources ........................................................................................................................... 32 Partnerships ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Monitoring and Evaluation .............................................................................................................. 36 VII. RISKS TO CPS IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................... 36 CPS ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................... 39 Annex 1: Liberia CPS (FY 13-17) Results Framework................................................................... 39 Annex 2: Liberia JCAS FY 09-12 Completion Report .................................................................... 48
Annex 3: Strategic Goals of the Agenda for Transformation ......................................................... 84
Annex 4: Debt Sustainability Analysis ............................................................................................ 85
Annex 5: Fragility and Resilience in Liberia and the Proposed Application of a Fragility Lens in
WBG Operations .............................................................................................................................. 99 Annex 6: Development Partnerships in Support of Agenda for Transformation FY 13-17 .......... 108 Annex 7: Trust Fund Portfolio ...................................................................................................... 109 Annex 8: Women and Youth in Liberia ......................................................................................... 115 Annex 9: Governance Challenges and Opportunities................................................................... 122 Annex 10: Mainstreaming Capacity Development in the CPS ..................................................... 127 Annex 11: Liberia: Country Financing Parameters ..................................................................... 131 Annex B1: Liberia at a Glance ..................................................................................................... 132 Annex B2: Selected Indicators of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management ....................... 134 Annex B3: IFC Investment Operations Program .......................................................................... 135 Annex B4a: IDA Indicative Lending Program, 2013-2017 (in US$, millions) ............................. 136 Annex B4b: IDA/IFC Indicative AAA Program, 2013-2017......................................................... 137 Annex B5: Liberia – Social Indicators.......................................................................................... 138 Annex B6: Liberia – Key Economic Indicators ............................................................................ 140 Annex B7: Liberia – Key Exposure Indicators ............................................................................. 142 Annex B8: Liberia – Country Map................................................................................................ 143 REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA
COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY (CPS) FY13-17
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
i. Liberia’s resurgence from one of the greatest economic collapses of modern times has
been impressive. The protracted 14-year civil war cost the lives of 200,000 people and led to
substantial losses in material wealth and social progress. Since 2003, with the support of
development partners, including a robust United Nations peacekeeping mission (UNMIL), Liberia
has maintained, peace and stability, revived state administration, improved governance, rebuilt
some basic infrastructure and made progress on key human development indicators. Conditions for
private sector engagement and investment improved and in 2006, the economy’s rate of growth
outperformed most African countries. There has also been a marked reduction in poverty, from
63.8 percent in 2007 to 56.7 percent, based on analysis of the data from the 2010 Core Welfare
Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ) survey. The second post-conflict democratic elections in 2011
signaled to the world that Liberia is steadily making the transition from a post-conflict situation to
long-term development.
ii. Vast challenges remain going forward. With a population of about 4.2 million, Liberia ranks
174th out of 186 countries in the 2011 Human Development Index. Child malnutrition and maternal
mortality rates (MMR) are among the highest in the world. Net school enrollment ranges from 32.4
percent in primary to 5.4 percent in senior secondary. Access to public electricity services, (1.7
percent), and potable piped water, (1 percent), rank amongst the lowest in the world. Ninety five
percent of the nation’s primary, secondary and feeder roads remain unpaved, suffer from poor
maintenance and are affected by heavy rainfall.
iii. Delivering peace dividends to all will require tackling the “drivers of conflict” that
underlie social fragility. Central to the delivery of a peace dividend for Liberians is the creation of
sustainable jobs and improved services in transport, energy, water and sanitation, health and
education. This entails reducing progressively the ‘enclave’ nature of Liberia’s extractive
industries, plantation forestry and agriculture and broadening the economic base of the country,
thus drawing more people, especially youth, into productive economic activities. In addition, the
challenge of growth and broad-based prosperity calls for addressing other drivers of conflict that
include (i) a fragmented society; (ii) limited trust in the state; and (iii) continued security risks.
iv. In January 2013, the President of Liberia, H. E. Ellen Sirleaf Johnson, launched a new
National Vision, Liberia Rising 2030. The vision seeks high and sustained growth, driven by a
robust private sector, leading to middle-income status by 2030. To implement this vision, the
Government also formulated a five-year medium term strategy, the Agenda for Transformation
(AfT) that is structured around five pillars: Peace, Justice, Security and Rule of Law; Economic
Transformation; Human Development and Governance and Public Institutions. The fifth Pillar
groups several cross-cutting issues: gender equality, child protection, disability, youth
empowerment, environment, HIV/AIDS, human rights and labor and. The AfT maintains
continuity with the unfinished agenda of the previous Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS), especially
on peace, security and the rule of law and addressing the stress factors that drove the country
i repeatedly to conflict. The AfT also builds on the principles of the Paris Declaration, the Accra
Action Plan and the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States.
v. The World Bank Group’s (WBG) CPS FY 13-17 supports selected elements of the AfT.
The focus is on engagements that contribute to sustainable growth, poverty reduction and shared
prosperity, while addressing deep-rooted causes of conflict and fragility. Each new operation will
be "filtered" through a robust analysis of their potential impacts on fragility to assure maximum
impact on these stress factors.
vi. CPS results target improved access to services and opportunities throughout the country,
as well as a more effective and credible state. The strategy supports narrowing the infrastructure
gap that is binding growth nationwide and impeding effective delivery of key social services.
Efforts in energy, transport and telecommunications infrastructure will help: (a) broaden the base of
the economy, making Liberia’s growth more inclusive, and (b) connect and unify the nation by
reducing the cleavages that still exist between the center and the periphery. Work will continue to
help improve delivery of health and education and greater emphasis will be placed on youth
employment generation, public financial management, civil service reform and natural resource
governance management. Given the low baselines for access to all of these services in the country,
despite the expected substantial gains, effective coverage will still remain low. However, the
program will help set the institutional basis for continued and accelerated improvements afterwards,
in line with the vision of the country for 2030. To enhance the credibility of intended efforts and
show the population that there is a peace dividend, the CPS will work to deliver results both in
urban and rural areas.
vii. The CPS program foresees tight cooperation among development partners to enhance the
effectiveness and transformational impact of national efforts. Liberia will continue to depend
heavily on development partners1, therefore increased support and coordination will be crucial to
ensure that all development priorities of the AfT are addressed in the next five years and beyond.
IDA resources will be leveraged with multi-donor trust funds and the strategic use of Bank
knowledge products. The selective focus of new lending on infrastructure complements the ongoing program focus on service delivery. The programmatic series of development policy
operations (DPO) in support of the Government’s ambitious reform program will provide a
platform for the engagement of other development partners and will focus on: (i) improving
transparency of the government operations; (ii) increasing accountability in the management of
public assets and reducing opportunity for corruption; (iii) building capacity for equitable service
delivery, and (iv) enhancing inclusive growth and employment including through tackling the land
tenure and access to credit issues; and (v) improving human capital primarily through improving
access to quality education. The Bank will partner with the UN in addressing the fragility drivers.
viii. Both the AfT and the WBG’s CPS will be implemented under challenging conditions.
Liberia’s security situation has been generally stable but remains sensitive to internal and regional
political volatility. The upcoming midterm elections in 2014 and national elections in 2017
represent moderate to high risks at a time when UNMIL’s peace-keeping force of ten thousand
soldiers and police begins downsizing to half that number by 2015. The economy will remain
1
Liberia, in 2011, received US$ 185.39 per capita in Official Development Assistance (ODA) ii vulnerable to external shocks from fluctuating global commodity prices and the likely sluggish
growth of the global economy. Finally, limited institutional and human resource capacity within the
Government to implement and monitor reforms and priority programs outlined in the ambitious
Agenda poses a significant risk. The CPS will directly address these constraints in all Bank
operations and at sector levels over the next five years.
iii I. INTRODUCTION
1. The last World Bank Joint Country Assistance Strategy (JCAS) for Liberia, prepared
together with the African Development Bank (ADB), covered FY09-FY11 and supported the
priorities identified in Liberia’s first PRS. The JCAS Progress Report, presented to the Board on
June 2, 2011, retained the key objectives of the program, revised the original results framework into
a more realistic matrix and extended the JCAS to FY12 to align the Bank’s strategic planning
process with that of the Government’s. Since the Bank was able to mobilize significantly higher
levels of financing, both from IDA and Trust Funds, the lending program was adjusted in response
to the Government’s request for increased funding for key infrastructure programs. A series of
analytical studies by PREM, HD, SD and IFC were prepared to provide the analytical underpinning
for Liberia’s second PRS, the Agenda for Transformation (AfT).
2. The new Liberia CPS, covering FY2013–FY2017, was prepared jointly with the
International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
(MIGA). The strategy reflects the World Bank Group’s commitment to exploit synergies internally,
to generate the maximum development impact through innovative solutions, and externally to
leverage WBG knowledge and technical expertise through other partners’ resources. The CPS has
been developed and will be implemented in close coordination with development partners such as
the African Development Bank (ADB), the European Union (EU), the United States Agency for
International Development (USAID) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation
Agency (Sida), all of whom were also designing their respective country assistance strategies. The
World Bank also strategically partnered with the United Nations (UN) in the preparation of United
Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) that is a more focused UN collective
response to national priorities and will be implemented based on the “Delivering as One” concept.
All development partner strategies are fully aligned with the Agenda for Transformation.
3. This CPS represents an agreement with the Government on the specific role the Bank will
play in supporting Liberia’s development goal of reducing the sources of fragility and conflict
in pursuit of sustainable growth and poverty reduction. The CPS is a results-oriented strategy
that builds upon the AfT and a national Fragility Assessment, prepared by the GoL as part of
Liberia’s participation in the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States. The analysis defines
underlying challenges linked to the country’s continuing fragility and conflict risks. The CPS also
draws on findings of the 2011 WDR Conflict, Security and Development and builds on the progress
achieved and lessons learned during the implementation of the previous strategy. Most importantly,
the CPS is based on the Government’s own definition of development challenges and solutions to
“put the country on a path to sustainable and equitable growth and to create the right environment
as Liberia transforms toward its long-term vision of becoming a more equal, just, secure and
prosperous society”.2
2
“Agenda for Transformation, Steps Towards Liberia Rising 2030”, Monrovia, January 2013.
1 II.
COUNTRY CONTEXT
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND FRAGILITY CONTEXT
4. Liberia has made considerable progress in the face of daunting challenges. Fourteen years
of civil conflict destroyed key institutions, infrastructure and the economy. The conflict was largely
precipitated by the prolonged exclusion and marginalization of a large part of the Liberian
population from political power and the economic wealth from the country’s natural resources. Poor
economic governance allowed public resources to be utilized for the benefit of a small group of
political elite, which heightened inequality and social instability. A brutal civil war erupted in 1989.
In 2003, Liberia signed a peace agreement that led to a transitional government, which, supported
by a robust 15,000 strong United Nations peacekeeping mission, focused on consolidating peace
and stabilizing the country. With the help of development partners, Liberia has revived state
administration, rebuilt some basic infrastructure and improved conditions for private sector
engagement and investment. This has been accompanied by a marked reduction in poverty.
5. The return to multi-party democracy in 2006 created the environment for long term
reconstruction, a challenge assumed during President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s first
administration. With the inauguration of her second term on the 16th of January 2012, Liberia
completed its second post-conflict democratic elections. While the 2011 elections were considered
generally free and transparent by international observers, widening political divisions, sporadic
violence, and the boycott of the run-off elections by the opposition underscored the continued need
for national healing and reconciliation. The President’s Unity Party (UP) controls 22 of the 73 seats
in the House and 11 of the 30 seats in the Senate. Post-election, the UP forged a series of alliances
with some opposition parties.
6. In 2012 the President established a Constitution Review Committee (CRC) to identify
areas of conflict and propose amendments to address political exclusion, a key factor of
fragility in Liberia. The Government has approved a National Policy on Decentralization and
Local Governance, recognizing that decentralization offers an important opportunity for engaging
local level communities in governance and service delivery. However, the implementation of this
policy initiative is stymied by the fact that the current Constitution (1986) does not provide a legal
framework for decentralization. The CRC will lead a national consultative process to validate the
constitutional reform proposals; this will be a major challenge, given that many Liberians outside
Monrovia lack the information and civic education to contribute to the debate. In the meantime,
given that Liberia remains highly centralized, the state must act to increase its presence in rural
areas through targeted interventions and actions to bring greater connectivity nationwide.
7. Liberia is committed to using regional cooperation to widen its market space, promote
physical integration with the sub-region and confront security risks. The Government has
renewed its commitment to enhanced regional cooperation and trade under the Manu River Union
(MRU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) protocols. Furthermore, the
GoL sees the MRU as a platform for addressing issues of regional security, infrastructure and
governance, given that Liberia remains vulnerable to political tensions and insecurity spilling over
from neighboring countries (Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea and Sierra Leone) due to its highly porous
borders and limited security presence. The planned phased drawdown of UNMIL from 2012 to
2015 challenges the government to assume many of UNMIL’s current responsibilities in an
2 environment of competing development needs, limited fiscal space and low public confidence in the
Liberian security sector.
8. Liberia is investing in both national and international efforts around new approaches to
support peace-building and state-building goals of countries emerging from conflict. The
country is a pilot for the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States and in collaboration with the
US and Sweden, recently completed a Fragility Assessment3 that builds on a number of earlier
analyses and lays out the main “conflict drivers” that continue to affect the country’s development
(see Box 1). The national Peace-building and Reconciliation Program, designed with the support
of the UN, will focus on strengthening the country’s resilience by tackling remaining fragility
drivers and will serve as the programmatic framework for the implementation of Liberia’s Strategic
Roadmap for National Healing, Peace-building and Reconciliation.
Box 1: Liberia’s Remaining Conflict Drivers
Liberia’s Fragility Assessment analyzes remaining conflict drivers around five Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals of the New
Deal:
PSG 1: Legitimate Politics -Foster Inclusive Political Settlements and Conflict Resolution: Liberia must not only recover its
institutions and infrastructure, it must develop an entirely new social contract to replace the pre-conflict context in which there was an
explicit marginalization of the majority by an elite minority. Deep cleavages between descendants of Americo-Liberian settlers and
native populations, among native ethnic groups, between “youth” and elders, and, increasingly, between “haves” and “have-nots” have
prevented the formation of a national identity and a shared understanding of citizenship. Overall, the Government remains highly
centralized and decentralization will require integration of traditional systems and values.
PSG 2: Security – Establish and Strengthen People’s Security: There is a culture of impunity and lack of accountability that
continues to plague the security sector and Liberians remain unsatisfied with limited police presence and high rates of corruption among
the ranks. Crimes such as mob justice, rape and robbery are still very present threats and domestic violence is a frequent occurrence in
Liberia. While much of the work done has focused on increasing the size and quality of the Liberian security services, security has been
less well defined in public security terms, including understanding individual and community security mechanisms, access to
information, education and economic opportunities as critical components of well-being. Regionally, Liberia’s borders remain porous
with risk of illegal trafficking of people and arms. PSG 3: Justice – Address Injustices and Increase People’s Access to Justice: Liberia continues to struggle with inefficient
justice institutions that are plagued by corruption. A lack of harmonization continues to exist between the evolving statutory system and
traditional systems of justice while the public lacks a clear understanding of its rights and responsibilities. There is a substantive
disconnect between how many rural Liberians perceive justice, in terms of group interests, and the much more individualistic statutory
orientation – this is yet one more complicating factor in the center-periphery divide.
PSG 4: Economic Foundations – Generate Employment and Improve Livelihoods: The “concession economy” forms the
backbone of the formal economy and mostly has benefitted foreign companies and the Liberian elite. Disputes over land ownership and
concessions management remain a major source of conflict, and communities often find themselves at the losing end of both revenue
sharing and land disputes. Given the lack of basic infrastructure, non-extractive production is almost entirely limited to subsistence
agriculture and micro enterprises. Over 70% of the country’s population is under 35. However, employment opportunities are sufficient
for only a minority of these predominantly unskilled youth. As a result, most current and future young adults find little work, leading to
marginalization and sometimes to illicit activities.
PSG 5: Revenue and Services – Manage Revenue and Build Capacity for Accurate and Fair Service Delivery: While
economic shocks have been relatively well managed, service delivery remains dependent, in large part, on where one lives as the remote
areas continue to face staggering gaps in service delivery. Overall, there remains inadequate coverage of basic social services
throughout the country. Although serious efforts are being made to increase transparency of expenditure, including making information
Eavailable
CONOMIC
CONTEXT AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
at a county level, revenue generation continues to suffer from deficiencies in accountability mechanisms and corruption.
3
Liberia’s Fragility Assessment, September 5, 2012.
3 9. Since the end of civil war, Liberia has made substantial progress in its economic recovery.
Steady GDP growth before the global crisis of 2008/2009 peaked at over 9 percent in 2007. The
path of growth weakened with the crisis but since then it has bounced back. The drivers of
economic growth have been rubber and mining, with the support of foreign direct investment and to
a lesser extent, from an expansion of construction activities and growth in services. Agriculture and
services were the leading sectors up to 2010, but with the resumption of iron ore mining in 2012,
the mining sector’s contribution to GDP has almost tripled (from 4.5 percent in 2011 to 12 percent
in 2012). As a result, the share of the industrial sector has increased from 7 percent in 2008 to 16
percent of GDP in 2012. Services, including construction, retailing and hospitality, are the leading
contributor to the economy, representing 46 percent of GDP in 2012.
Figure 1: Composition of Liberia’s GDP (2008-2012)
Composition of GDP (%) 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
2009
2010
Agriculture and Fisheries Forestry Mining
2011
2012
Manufacturing Services
Source: IMF Country Report
10. Substantial gains have been made in improving the supporting macroeconomic
environment. Public external debt fell following the achievement of the Heavily Indebted Poor
Countries (HIPC) Completion Point in June 2010.4 In addition, inflation, which rose to 11.5 percent
at end-2011 due to a sharp rise in food and fuel prices, dropped to about 5.5 percent at end-2012. In
2012, the Central Bank intervened in the exchange rate market through increased foreign exchange
auctions to curb volatility and dampen speculation in the exchange markets by requiring licenses for
all foreign exchange bureaus operating in the country. Monetary policy continues to target price
stability through reducing exchange rate fluctuations.
11. The external balance has improved and remains sustainable despite the widening of the
current account deficit of the balance of payments. In 2012, however, the terms of trade
deteriorated due to a decline in export prices (rubber and iron ore) relative to import prices. The
4
Liberia benefited from debt relief under the HIPC initiatives at the decision point and completion point. This triggered
additional relief from the Paris Club creditors. It also carried out two operations of debt buy-backs from commercial creditors.
As a result, its public external debt fell by US$4.5 billion (from US$4.6 billion in FY2004/05 to US$115 million in
FY2010/11).
4 surge in capital goods imports related to investments in the concession sector, as well as income
outflows significantly widened the current account deficit from 34 percent in 2011 to 52 percent of
GDP in 2012. Continued strong inflows of foreign direct investment and donor transfers, coupled
with private sector transfers, will finance the deficit and assure stability. Gross international
reserves are expected to fall slightly to about 2.6 months of imports in 2012 (from 3 months in
2011).
Table 1: Liberia-Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2009 -2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Real GDP (% growth)
Consumer prices (annual average % growth)
Consumer prices (end of period %)
Exchange rate (end of period L$/US$)
Exports, f.o.b (US$ Million)
Imports, f.o.b (US$ Million)
Current account balance incl. grants (% of GDP)
Gross official reserves (US$ Millions)
5.3
7.4
9.7
68.3
153
574
-28.8
312.2
Prel.
6.1
7.3
6.6
71.4
215
674
-32.8
391.0
Prel.
8.2
8.5
11.4
72.2
381
1,010
-34.1
416.0
Proj.
8.9
6.6
5.5
..
472
1,347
-52.4
372.0
Proj.
8.3
5.6
4.7
..
539
1,565
-65.0
412.0
Proj.
5.6
5.0
4.0
..
584
1,652
-71.6
440.0
Proj.
7.1
5.0
4.0
..
967
1,570
-45.6
466
Broad Money (% Change)
24.1
33.5
32.7
13.2
9.3
7.0
13.2
20.7
16.7
1.9
2.1
21.9
8.1
3.0
-1.2
1.2
-0.3
1.5
26.1
1,678.0
145.4
0.0
1,155.1
23.5
17.0
5.5
1.1
23.1
9.3
2.6
0.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
24.0
1,679.9
137.3
0.2
1,291.9
26.4
19.0
4.6
2.8
27.0
9.8
5.2
-0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
20.6
113.9
8.0
0.4
1,545.44
27.8
21.6
4.6
1.7
31.0
11.3
4.1
-3.2
3.2
0.9
2.3
17.6
166.0
10.0
0.4
1,767.5
27.3
19.7
5.2
2.4
33.3
11.0
7.8
-6.0
6.0
5.5
0.5
15.7
286.7
15.5
0.4
1,934.4
28.8
19.2
7.3
2.3
35.4
10.8
11.0
-6.6
6.6
6.6
0.0
14.4
435.1
21.8
0.6
2,062.7
27.6
19.2
6.6
1.8
33.8
10.2
10.7
-6.2
6.2
6.4
-0.2
12.8
589.1
26.6
0.7
2,368.9
Indicator
Revenues and Grants (% of GDP)
Tax Revenue
Non-Tax Revenue
Grants (% of GDP)
Expenditures (% of GDP)
Wages and salaries
Capital Expenditure (% of GDP)
Overall surplus / deficit (incl. grants)
Identified Financing
External
Domestic including Central Bank
Public sector domestic debt (% of GDP)
Public sector external debt (incl. arrears US$ Mn)
Public sector external debt (% of GDP)
Debt service charge (% of GDP)
Nominal GDP(US$ Millions)
Source: IMF and Bank Staff Estimates
12. Notwithstanding the robust revenue collection in 2012, the overall fiscal deficit increased.
Total revenue increased from 26.4 percent in FY2010/11 to 27.8 percent of GDP in FY2011/12 due
to the strong performance of international trade taxes, thus offsetting lower external grants. Total
expenditure climbed to 31 percent of GDP in FY2011/12 from 27 percent in FY 2010/11 reflecting
sharp increased spending on wages and salaries, goods and services, and subsidies and transfers.
Capital spending declined from 5.2 percent in FY 2010/11 to 4.1 percent of GDP in FY2011/12
despite unanticipated spending to rehabilitate ports and the road to the Mount Coffee hydropower
plant. The overall fiscal deficit that increased from 0.6 percent in FY2010/11 to 3.2 percent of GDP
in FY2011/12) was financed by drawing down of government deposits, short-term domestic
borrowing from the Central Bank and concessional credit. Given the rapid growth of the economy
and the significant share of concessional financing, debt sustainability is not at risk (see Annex 4:
Debt Sustainability Analysis).
5 Medium-term Economic Outlook
13. Liberia’s natural resource sectors will continue to play a crucial role in the country’s
economic development. The natural resource sector is expected to remain the mainstay of the
economy during this CPS period, providing the largest contributions to growth and job creation
both directly and indirectly. The discovery of oil from current prospecting efforts will further raise
the importance of the natural resource sector to the Liberian economy. However, the sector carries
inherent risks. At the macroeconomic level, substantial foreign exchange inflows from investments
related to exploration and establishment of processing facilities and, subsequently, from commodity
exports, could swell reserves and lead to substantial foreign exchange appreciation, thus increasing
the risks of Dutch disease effects. These risks are relatively high for Liberia. The current low level
of domestic productivity hinders competitiveness and huge infrastructure gaps in energy, ports,
roads, information and communication technology (ICT) and water and sanitation, combined with
the skills and regulatory deficits prevent the country from diversifying the economic base.
Furthermore, the variability in commodity prices and the relatively high correlation between these
prices could produce “boom and bust” cycles, increasing the risks related to macroeconomic
management.
14. The importance and prospects of Liberia’s natural resource sector presents unique
opportunities but also raises substantial challenges. Liberia has made some progress on natural
resource governance, including the establishment of the Liberia Extractive Industry Transparency
Initiative (LEITI) and the Bureau of Concessions; continuation of these efforts can help contain the
risks of corruption and elite capture. Liberia’s political and economic governance systems
(including financial management and procurement) need strengthening to effectively manage
potentially large revenue inflows, which otherwise could become a major conflict driver. In
addition, given Liberia’s history of land conflict, tensions between concessions and communities
could pose considerable risks to align productive operation of concessions and the development of
cohesive and conflict-free communities.
15. Liberia’s medium-term economic outlook is favorable but remains vulnerable to external
shocks. The Liberian economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of about 7 percent
during FY2013-15 reflecting the continued positive external environment and increased foreign
direct investment in the natural resource-based sectors, particularly iron ore mining, forestry and oil
palm. Inflation is expected to decline and stabilize at around 5 percent of GDP. The fiscal deficit
will increase to more than 6 percent of GDP in FY 2014/15 due to higher spending on infrastructure
including energy and roads. As the Liberian economy remains dependent on primary exports as
well as imported foods and fuel, it remains highly vulnerable to external economic shocks in the
medium term.
16. A priority of the Government over the medium-term is to create adequate fiscal space to
finance the implementation of an accelerated investment program. The annual budget for
2012/13, prepared in the context of the first medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF),
envisages a substantial increase in capital expenditures to address binding constraints to growth.
The public sector investment budget of US$243.8 million represents 36 percent of the total budget.
Infrastructure spending (transport, ports, roads, airport, and communications) accounts for about 45
percent of total investment budget, followed by the sector investment programs (44 percent). The
6 remaining resources are allocated to youth development, capacity development and activities
related to reconciliation and strengthening security.
17. The IMF and the World Bank will maintain close collaboration through a Joint World
Bank-IMF work program and policy dialogue with the GoL. The program covers cooperation
in a number of technical areas including: Debt Sustainability Analysis, strengthening of the PFM
framework including the implementation of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF),
the conduct of the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) as well as the
strengthening of the capacity to compile the national accounts. The current three-year IMF program
under its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) agreed in November 2012 focuses on three primary areas:
(i) creating fiscal space for higher capital spending; (ii) strengthening the financial sector through
reducing vulnerabilities and improving access to credit; and (iii) underpinning growth with
structural reforms to improve public financial management, governance and the business
environment
18. The Government’s medium-term development program has the support of the
international community. The total cost of the AfT is estimated at about US$3.2 billion with
priority investments in infrastructure, social and security sectors. Liberia, as many post-conflict
countries, receives generous international development support with ODA in 2011 totaling US$ 718
million or US$ 185 per capita. However, additional donor mobilization efforts are necessary to
support the ambitious investment agenda for the AfT. While the Government succeeded in
attracting off-budget grants to finance some priority investment projects, including the
rehabilitation of Mt. Coffee hydropower plant, additional fiscal space generated from external
budget support grants is expected to be moderate. Therefore, to address the large infrastructure
needs, particularly in transport and energy, external borrowing, including from IDA, will increase
from 8 percent of GDP in 2011/12 to 22 percent in 2014/15.5
POVERTY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT
19. Although progress has been made in the last several years, poverty remains widespread in
Liberia. With a 2011 per capita gross national income (GNI) of US$330, Liberia’s population is
among the poorest in the world. In 2007, nearly two-thirds of Liberia’s population lived below the
poverty line and almost half were living in extreme poverty. Nevertheless, based on analysis of the
data from the 2010 Core Welfare Indicator Surveys (CWIQs), poverty is estimated to have fallen to
56.4 percent. The reduction in poverty resulted from: (i) economic growth, averaging nearly 7
percent between 2007 and 2010; (ii) a sharp reduction in inflation, particularly after 2008; (iii)
improvements in domestic agriculture and (iv) income support to vulnerable groups under the
Liberian Agency for Community Empowerment (LACE) program supported by the World Bank.
5
IMF Country Report No.12/340, Liberia 2012 Article IV Consultation, November 2012. 7 Figure 2: Incidence of Poverty (2007 and 2010)
Source: Staff calculations based on data from the 2007 and 2010 CWIQs
20. Poverty reduction has not been uniform throughout the country and the population
remains highly vulnerable. Poverty rates and inequality were reduced in the rural areas but there
was little or no improvement in the urban area, where the rural poor and illiterate are migrating to in
search of education and employment opportunities. Vulnerability to poverty is strongly correlated
with food insecurity; 34.3 percent of the population has been found to be food insecure.
Furthermore, in addition to limited access to basic infrastructure and social services, being poor in
Liberia also leads to a sense of economic exclusion, insecurity and inability to cope with potential
risks.
21. Poverty alleviation requires not only a strong growth strategy but also complementary
social policies. Poverty is strongly linked, not surprisingly, to unemployment. Despite the relatively
robust economic growth, less than one-fifth of the labor force is in paid employment. Nearly 80
percent of the labor force is in vulnerable employment with the level at around 94 percent for rural
women. The productivity of many of the “employed” is low and consequently they earn low
wages, making them working poor.
22. Although poverty analysis does not suggest any significant difference in poverty rates
between male and female-headed households, women tend to have unequal access to
employment and other economic opportunities. According to the International Labor
Organization (ILO) definition, the lower rate of unemployment for women reflects their greater
engagement as unpaid family laborers. A World Bank study6 found that women comprise 56 percent
of the informal non-agriculture sector and are significantly underrepresented in key emerging areas
of the Liberian economy such as mining, construction, and services. Data from the 2010 Labor
Force Survey (LFS) suggest that women earn substantially less than men across most sectors.
6
Gender-Aware Programs and Women’s Roles in Agricultural Value Chains- A Policy Memorandum. May 2010. Prepared by
PRMGE with the Ministry of Gender and Development (MOGD). 8 Table 2: Status of Employment and Vulnerability
Urban
Status of employment
Paid employee
Employer
Own-account worker
Member of producers’ cooperative
Contributing family worker
Total
Vulnerable employment
Male
40.5
3.8
46.2
1.6
7.9
100.0
54.1
Female
14.2
2.5
72.0
0.8
10.6
100.0
82.6
Rural
Male
17.2
1.1
64.2
1.2
16.3
100.0
80.5
Female
4.4
1.2
66.7
0.6
27.0
100.0
93.8
Total
Male
27.5
2.3
56.2
1.4
12.6
100.0
68.8
Female
8.7
1.8
69.1
0.7
19.8
100.0
88.8
Total
18.1
2.0
62.7
1.0
16.2
100.0
78.8
Source: Liberia Labor Force Survey, 2010.
23. Youth constitutes a third of the total population and nearly half of the total labor force in
Liberia,7 presenting both opportunities and risks. A rapidly growing young population can
benefit from growth if adequate opportunities for education and sustainable jobs are created.
However, the so called “war generation” in Liberia grew up during the years of civil conflict
practically without educational services. Less than 13 percent of the total labor force has some
vocational training, and 60 percent have not attended any school. In addition, an estimated 50,000
young people will join the labor force every year which, coupled with projected population
increases, will create significant labor market pressures. They also face inequality and social
exclusion linked to deep-seated practices and norms. In rural Liberia, decision-making at a
community level is based on long-standing arrangements granting power to either a specific family
or ethnic group, which guides allocation of community resources and dispute resolution. Young
people, especially from minority tribes or originally not from the community, find it difficult to
obtain productive resources, farm land or employment.
Figure 3: Population demographics 2010 and 2030 (estimate)
Source: Liberia. Inclusive Growth Diagnostics, World Bank, June, 2012.
7
Liberia’s National Youth Policy states that youth are those that are between ages 15-34.
9 24. The likelihood of Liberia achieving the majority of MDGs by 2015 is low; with the
possible exception of the goals related to global partnerships and gender parity in education.
Liberia still ranks 174th out of 186 countries according to the 2011 Human Development Index
(HDI) and ending the extreme poverty by 2015 is unlikely. While the country has made progress in
gross enrollment rates at all levels, it is unlikely that the MDG for universal primary completion by
2015 will be met. Notable progress has been made in reducing infant and under-five mortality
rates; these have been almost halved, to 71 and 110 per 1,000 births respectively, over the last 20
years. Other key indicators, however, such as child malnutrition and maternal mortality rate
(MMR) remain amongst the highest in the world, despite some progress on the latter, which has
declined from close to 1,000 per 100,000 births in 2007, to an estimated 770 per 100,000 in 2010.
Poor maternal health leads to poor nutrition of both mother and child - over one in ten children will
die before the age of five. Approximately 40 percent of children under five are stunted. Access to
sustainable water and sanitation continues to be limited.
III. DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES AND GOVERNMENT AGENDA FOR
TRANSFORMATION
PEACE, JUSTICE, SECURITY AND RULE OF LAW
25. One of the major challenges to building peace and enhancing security in Liberia is to
overcome a history of exclusion, inequality and corruption. Deep divisions still exist between
people of different tribes, between those of settler background and those that are more closely tied
to Liberian traditions and between those who have some wealth and those who do not. Different
groups of Liberians interpret their rights and the rights of others differently, which often leads to
exclusion and discrimination at the community level. The lack of effective tools and systems to
prevent, detect and prosecute corruption exacerbates these tensions. The complexity of addressing
the remaining fragility drivers has been recognized in a recently completed Liberia’s Fragility
Assessment (see Box 1).
26. The exit of UNMIL’s personnel and equipment calls for building and financing of the
domestic capacity to provide security. Although the Liberian National Police (LNP) has been
increased to a total of more than 4,000 trained personnel, the ratio of police to citizen (1 to 683) is
below the UN recommended ratio of one police officer per 450 citizens. Public confidence in the
Liberian security apparatus is low according to a survey that finds that 43 percent of Liberians
believe the LNP is corrupt; 40 percent say the same of courts, and 64 percent believe they will have
to pay for the police to investigate a crime.8 Although, the proposed Justice and Security Regional
Hubs, supported by the UN, will help to provide coordinated security services in five locations
outside Monrovia, the establishment of the first regional Hub in Gbarnga, Bong County suffered
significant delays, both in establishing its infrastructure and the deployment of staff.
27. Limited fiscal space constrains the options that the Government has for rapidly scaling
up the security apparatus to respond to these challenges. To assist the Government in
8
R. Blair, C.Blattman and A. Hartman, “patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Liberia: Results from a Longitudinal Study”,
Yale University Innovations for Poverty Action, 2012.
10 addressing these challenges, the UN and the World Bank jointly prepared a Public Expenditure
Review (PER)9 of Liberia’s security sector. The review constitutes the recognition by both
institutions that business as usual is not an option as security sector development is critical to
sustainable development in post conflict and fragile states. The PER estimated a US$86 million
financing gap for the security sector over the next seven years based on its current model of service
delivery and its current budget allocation of 5 percent of GDP to security. Since it is unlikely that
the government will be able to absorb the full anticipated cost of security operations transfer from
UNMIL, the report emphasizes the need for clear prioritization of the security functions within the
limited resource envelope.
ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
28. Economic diversification remains the greatest challenge to achieve inclusive economic
growth. Past experiences suggest that foreign investments in the traditional export sectors (rubber,
palm oil, forestry and mining) are unlikely to create substantial employment opportunities as these
sectors are largely capital-intensive enclaves with little direct or indirect link to the rest of the
economy. Liberia’s economy remains dependent on imported foods and fuel and vulnerable to
commodity price shocks. Domestic agriculture could help to reduce food imports and be a source of
considerable employment and poverty reduction, given that this sector is still the primary source of
livelihood for two-thirds of Liberia’s population; over 330,000 households are engaged in
agriculture, primary smallholder and subsistence farming. The production of domestic food supplies
remains fairly stagnant due to low productivity, insecure land tenure and limited access to credit,
infrastructure, extension services and markets. The manufacturing sector, accounting for only 9.6
percent of GDP, remains underdeveloped due to competition from cheaper imports and limited,
unreliable as well as expensive electricity and water services.
29. Rebuilding basic infrastructure is necessary for enhancing growth, connecting people,
uniting a nation, and reducing fragility. Good roads facilitate trade, enlarge markets and make it
easier to deliver essential services throughout the country. Much remains to be done to connect the
country internally and regionally. Most key routes alternate between sections in fair and poor
condition, especially in the Southeast and Northwest of the country where most of the poor live.
Likewise, the cost and limited availability of electricity are preventing diversification into industry
and services. Liberia’s current power generation costs, at about US$0.55 per kilowatt hour, are
among the highest in Africa while coverage is less than 1 percent of the total population, among the
lowest in the world. It is estimated that addressing Liberia’s public infrastructure needs will require
investments of between $350 million and $600 million per year over the next decade.
30. The connectivity gap in telecommunications remains large. Mobile density, which grew
from 24 percent in 2009 to 57 percent in 2012, is close to the Africa regional average of 60 percent.
The Internet sector has also witnessed some growth over the last few years; however, access is still
well below the regional average. Liberia was recently connected to the Africa Cable to Europe
(ACE) but the connectivity gap will not disappear without additional investment in a national
backbone, coupled with a holistic approach dealing with demand stimulation, Internet ecosystem,
ICT jobs and ICT applications.
9
LIBERIA: Public Expenditure Review “Meeting the Challenges of the UNMIL Security Transition”, Document of the World
Bank and the United Nations Mission in Liberia, January 2013. 11 31. The latest Enterprise Survey (2009) identified other important challenges to economic
transformation, including corruption, crime, and lack of access to finance, as significant
constraints to investment, limiting generation of jobs and income opportunities. Liberian
enterprises, mostly small and micro, provide livelihood for the majority of working poor but lack
access to finance due to weak capacity to prepare bankable project proposals, lack of collateral, in
part due to inadequate land tenure and the high cost of borrowing. Other constraints include weak
financial and banking system, undeveloped capital markets and lack of transparency in the
regulatory system and dispute settlements.
32. Regional markets present an opportunity for diversification that is yet to be explored and
fully utilized. Currently, Liberia’s trade with the rest of the (ECOWAS) members is below the
average for the sub-region; 7 percent compared to 10 percent. The GoL is taking steps to increase
cooperation and reduce barriers to regional trade with the goal of creating a single market by 2030.
Regional infrastructure projects and institutions capable of partnering with neighboring countries
are therefore becoming more important.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
33. Despite some gains in recent years, inadequate and inefficient use of resources, weakness
in sector governance and the lack of skilled personnel continue to affect equitable access to
quality public education. Net enrollment at all levels range from 32.4 percent in primary to 5.4
percent in senior secondary. The relatively low allocation for public sector funds for education
favors higher instead of primary education, partially as a result of overreliance on donor financing
in basic education. Many parts of the country, especially hard-to-access areas, lack adequate
facilities and teaching materials. Limited access to education and the dominance of an over-age
population in the education system require immediate “second chance” programs. The 2010/2011
School Census shows that only 5 percent of students in government and community schools are in
the right age-grade cohort. Liberia has the lowest rates of qualified teachers, student-teacher ratios
and share of female teachers among a set of comparable Sub Saharan African (SSA) countries, and
an effective teacher recruitment, training, and deployment system is yet to be put in place.
Governance and accountability issues continue to plague the sector, including high wage costs due
to overstaffing (or ghost-staffing), payroll irregularities, and weak financial management and
procurement systems.
34. While access to health services is improving, continued strong reforms in health
financing, human resources for health, and governance are needed to improve access, quality,
equity and sustainability of health services. The maternal mortality rate is estimated to have
declined from 1,000 to 770 per 100,000 births between 2007 and 2010, but remains one of the
highest in the world. Malaria continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Liberia,
and the number one cause of child morbidity. The allocation of resources is unequal across
counties as is the quality of services. Physical access to health facilities remains a barrier; as 40
percent of population lives more than 5 km away from the nearest facility. Coverage of effective
and low cost health interventions is still limited and there are not enough qualified and motivated
skilled health workers, especially in rural areas. The dependency on donor funding, which over the
past five years averaged three to four times the amount allocated in the national budget, raises
questions of sustainability. Both government and development partner programs will have to focus
12 on strengthening health systems to ensure efficient and equitable use of resources and increasing
quality of service provision.
35. Although more than half of the population lives in poverty, social protection
interventions are inadequate for protecting the poor, promoting productive household
investments, creating employment and reducing fragility. The share of the budget financing
social programs is relatively substantial; the individual programs, however, are often small-scale,
fragmented and uncoordinated. The main social safety net programs such as cash transfers, work
for food and in-kind transfers are predominantly financed by development partners. Between 2008
and 2010, donors financed 94 percent of all Social Safety Nets (SSN) expenditures, spread across
various government institutions, each with different implementation mechanisms. Approximately
50,000 of the extreme poor households in Liberia are labor-constrained. Extremely poor households
who can work suffer from limited economic opportunities; vulnerable employment is estimated at
77.9 percent. Improved access to employment and livelihood opportunities is particularly critical
for youth, which could not access basic social services during the long years of civil conflict and
lack basic numeracy, literacy and life skills to join the labor market. Key challenges in the shortterm will be to identify options for scalable programs, especially those that protect the poor and
vulnerable or have the potential to create sustainable jobs. Maximizing the impact of such
programs will require building synergies with the private sector and development partners through a
more coherent approach.
36. Improving the health profile of the population is further handicapped by the population’s
limited access to water and sanitation services, especially in rural areas, where only 51 percent
of the population has access to improved sources of drinking water and 4 percent to improved
sanitation versus 79 percent and 25 percent, respectively for the urban sector.10 Regular supply of
quality water is also a serious issue; in 2011 a census of the 7,500 improved rural water points
(mainly hand pumps) in Liberia showed that 29 percent were not functional. WASH (water,
sanitation and hygiene) activities remain under-resourced; the estimated funding deficit to meet the
MDGs and Liberia’s targets for water supply and sanitation is approximately US$75 million per
year.
GOVERNANCE AND PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
37. Decentralizing government administration and transforming counties to harness their
potential as engines of economic growth, reconciliation and service delivery will be a longterm effort. A centralized state structure rooted in traditional system of divide and rule has
supported elite control of resources while largely isolating the rest of the country.11 This has
resulted in high inequality across the country, encouraging tensions and undermining the legitimacy
of the state. While key line ministries have moved ahead with their own de-concentration,
comprehensive decentralization is constrained by the 1986 Constitution, which does not provide a
legal framework for political decentralization and delegation of authority. In addition, even the
initial actions of decentralization will be challenged by severe lack of basic physical infrastructure,
human capacity and service delivery systems in the counties. The challenge for the authorities is
10
11
Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Program, data for 2011.
Paul Richards (2010). “The Political Economy of War and Peace in Liberia”. 13 how to creatively increase the presence of the state, delivering services and improving prospects,
while reforming the needed institutional and governance apparatus.
38. Strategies and plans have been developed for public sector modernization including civil
service reform, but progress has been slow. Liberia lags behind the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
average in quality of public administration, scoring only 2.5 compared to the 2.9 SSA average in the
Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) for 2011. Limited public sector capacity has
undermined the effectiveness of government for service delivery and policy formulation. During
the conflict, many experienced and qualified professional staff left and the current civil service is
plagued by a number of structural and institutional weaknesses including low pay, poor alignment
between skills and functions, inadequate human resource management processes, weak payroll
controls and political interference. The Governance Commission has formulated reorganization
plans in consultation with over 16 ministries but implementation remains a challenge.
39. Although the Government has made progress in articulating the legal and regulatory
framework for public financial management (PFM), implementation again is limited. The
financial operations of many ministries and agencies are not fully aligned with the PFM and
procurement laws. The compliance gap not only reduces efficiency but also creates opportunities
for corruption. Moreover, organizational reforms and a strengthened public financial management
system have yet to be extended to state –owned enterprises and autonomous agencies. The delays in
the preparation and approval of the national budget adversely affect its alignment with policy
commitments. Furthermore, considerable amounts of donor funding remain off budget, thereby
reducing allocation efficiency. In addition, budget scrutiny remains limited because of weak internal
controls.
40. While significant steps have been taken in passing laws and creating governance
institutions12, additional efforts are needed to strengthen the ability of the government to
detect, prevent and prosecute corruption. Weak governance structures and widespread corruption
have been at the root of Liberia’s fragility; a score of 41 in the Corruption Perception Index (2012)
still suggests a high level of corruption in the public sector. Global Integrity (2010) reports an
implementation gap of 22 percent, rating governance in Liberia as “very weak”. This continues to
hinder the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs); in 2009 over half of the firms
interviewed reported that they were expected to give gifts to “get things done, to “get a government
contract” or to “get an electricity connection”. Similar governance challenges are prevalent in social
service delivery sectors. A recent report by the Coalition on Transparency and Accountability on
Education (COTAE) found that numerous governance challenges in the education sector, including
inadequate and substandard infrastructure and supplies, teacher absenteeism, and inadequate
accountability mechanisms, significantly affect education outcomes.13 41. Liberia’s political and economic governance systems (including financial management
and procurement) are not yet sufficiently robust to effectively manage potentially large
12
Establishment of the Governance Commission (2007); Anti-Corruption Commission (2008), the Anti-corruption Law
(2008); the Freedom of Information Act (2010), establishment of LEITI (2007) and transparency improvements in extractives
sectors pursuant to the Extractives Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) certification.
13
COTAE (2012). “Lifting Education: A National Call for integrity, accountability and Transparency in Procurement”.
Monrovia, p. 10-16. 14 revenue inflows from the natural resource sector, including designing policies for equitable
sharing of revenue from natural resources. The development of the extractive industry as an
engine for broad-based growth has been hampered by governance issues, which stunted the
development of the sector and turned resource wealth into an instrument for division and conflict.
With increasing investments in natural resource exploration, lingering concerns over sharing of
resource wealth - whether between mining companies and communities, or between government
and the population at large - remain a threat to the sustainable development of the concession sector
and Liberia’s stability. For example, concessions continue to absorb valuable agricultural land,
displacing citizens, yet concessionaires utilize only a relatively small share of the allocated land.14
42. The need for land reform and improved land governance mechanisms are among the
most sensitive and important constraints in achieving inclusive growth and reducing sources
of conflict in Liberia. Land-related conflicts are sourced in poorly defined land tenure, land use
and management, and related social, economic and environmental grievances. Less than 20 percent
of total land in Liberia is held through private deed. Large-scale concession-granting of natural
resources has triggered a new wave of land disputes, often in remote areas where state authority is
weak. Some projections indicate that the State has issued longer term use rights over an area that
corresponds with some 75 percent of the total Liberian land mass.15 Poor record keeping, lack of
harmonization between statutory and customary land systems and limited capacity and access to
judicial services all contribute to limited ability to resolve land disputes.
CROSS-CUTTING CHALLENGES
43. Despite laudable efforts by the Government, significant barriers are still in place
preventing gender equality in Liberia. The legal framework in Liberia provides strong equal
protection measures for men and women. Liberia has had a National Gender Policy since 2009, a
Rape Law which explicitly defines rape as a criminal act since 2006 and an inheritance law that
establishes equal rights of inheritance since 2003. However, sexual and gender-based violence
(SGBV) remains common in Liberia. For women and girls, the threat of violence impedes their
movement for economic, educational and civic activities. Qualitative assessments have found that
young women frequently cite potential sexual harassment from employers as a significant barrier to
labor market entry. Women’s ability to participate in agriculture and start-up entrepreneurial
activities is also constrained by their limited access to productive resources such as land, credit and
knowledge.
44. Building human capital to respond to capacity deficits in both the public and private
sector will be crucial to implementing the ambitious AfT. Liberia’s human capital was
substantially depleted during the prolonged war and has resulted in serious mismatch between the
supply and demand for skills. The report on Inclusive Growth Diagnostics16 shows that this is a
binding constraint to inclusive growth. The need for skilled and semi-skilled workers extends
beyond the civil service; the present and future needs of qualified medical personnel, engineers and
other professionals are immense. Currently, the demand for skilled and, in some cases, even manual
14
Global Witness (2011). “Curse of Cure: How Oil Can Make or Break Liberia’s Post-War Recovery”,
Paul de Witt, Land Rights, Private Use Permits and Forest Communities, report for the Land Commission of Liberia, April
2012.
16
Liberia. Inclusive Growth Diagnostics, Document of the World Bank. June, 2012.
15
15 labor cannot be met in the labor market. Both public and private sectors largely rely on foreign
skills. More than a million people (over 60 percent of the labor force) have not completed primary
school, literacy rates are well below regional averages and an additional 50,000 youth will join the
labor force every year. This will require employing non-traditional approaches to education and
skills building.
45. The quality and availability of statistics required for evidence-based policy decision
making and results monitoring is very limited. The majority of data and results from censuses
were destroyed during the civil war and thus baseline statistics are not available. The national
accounts, price statistics and poverty data need further improvements in terms of availability,
coverage and quality.17 While some statistical units in key ministries and agencies have been
strengthened, the Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS), continues
to experience acute shortages of properly trained personnel with technical expertise in the design of
statistical tools and for developing statistical methodology. LISGIS also lacks experienced
personnel to carry out data analysis. In addition, there are no statistical training programs at the
university level in Liberia that prepare professional statisticians. The AfT, a results-focused strategy,
will require a strong monitoring and evaluation system, including strengthening statistical capacity
to track development outcomes.
AGENDA FOR TRANSFORMATION – GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO KEY DEVELOPMENT
CHALLENGES
46. The AfT (2012-2017) is a 5-year development plan grounded on the goal of Liberia Rising
2030 to transform Liberia into a more prosperous and inclusive society as well as to achieve
middle income country status by 2030. The AfT follows the Lift Liberia Poverty Reduction
Strategy (PRS), which guided Liberia through the initial phases of post-conflict recovery and
emergency reconstruction. The goals of the first strategy were only partially met due to the
enormous financial, institutional and human capacity constraints, with limited progress in
delivering visible results for ordinary Liberians.
47. The AfT was developed through a country-wide national participatory process and is
grounded on solid analytical work. The overall design of the AfT was enriched by extensive
consultations in all 154 districts of Liberia, focusing on historical drivers of conflict and fragility
and proposals to reconcile society and promote inclusive growth. This design delivered a strong
focus on country-led results. The AfT was also informed by diagnostic studies, supported by the
WBG and presented in a National Economic Forum in September of 2011. The Liberia Rising 2030
and Agenda for Transformation were launched in January of 2013 in a conference that included
more than 500 delegates from all 15 counties.
48. The AfT builds on the gains achieved in the first PRS, setting out clear goals and
addressing the remaining constraints for development so that Liberia can create wealth and
17
GDP estimates using the expenditure approach are not available due to a lack of information on the informal sector, while
sectoral GDP using the production approach is grossly under-estimated. The consumer price index (CPI) suffers from
outdated goods and services in the consumption basket (based on 1964’s limited survey of Monrovia only and which was
implemented in a rush). A new basket of goods and services needs to be reconstructed and their weights revised.
Consumption data is available only for 2007. 16 inclusive growth. The AfT is built around five strategic pillars that reflect Government key
priorities. Pillar I - Peace, Justice, Security and Rule of Law; Pillar II - Economic Transformation;
Pillar III - Human development and Pillar IV - Governance and Public Institutions. Pillar V covers
cross cutting issues including gender equality, child protection, disability, youth empowerment,
environment, HIV/AIDS, human rights and labor and employment.
IV. LESSONS FROM PAST WORLD BANK EXPERIENCE
49. The World Bank Joint Country Assistance Strategy (JCAS FY09-12) supported the
priorities identified in Liberia’s first Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS I). The Bank program
focused on: (i) rebuilding core state functions and institutions; (ii) rehabilitating infrastructure to
jump-start economic growth and (iii) facilitating pro-poor growth. A JCAS Progress Report was
presented to the Board on June 2, 2011; the key objectives of the program were retained, but the
original results framework was revised into a more realistic one. The JCAS was also extended for
another year to align the Bank’s strategic planning process with that of the Government’s. A JCAS
completion report was prepared during FY 12 in parallel with an IEG Liberia Country Program
Evaluation (2004-2012).
50. During the JCAS period, the Bank was able to mobilize substantially higher levels of
financing than originally anticipated in order to address the massive reconstruction needs.
The original envelope envisaged a total of US$ 338 million of IDA and Trust Funds (TFs)
resources; this was augmented to US$ 727 million. TFs played a major role in complementing the
limited IDA resources and helped to expand the Bank’s portfolio, especially in infrastructure.
Regional and additional IDA allocations allowed the Bank to pro-actively respond to emerging
priorities and opportunities - at the end of FY 12, the total project portfolio consisted of 15 projects,
including 4 regional operations, for a total net commitment of US$ 370.6 million.
51. The JCASCR rated the performance of the WBG as moderately satisfactory given that
good progress was achieved toward many program outcomes. Out of 27 JCAS outcome
indicators, good progress was achieved in 12; five of which have been fully achieved and 7 partially
achieved. Especially notable were the advances made in rehabilitating key infrastructure;
significant progress was also made in strengthening public finance management, reducing the debt
burden and elaborating a number of sector strategies. Less progress was made in civil service
reform, strengthening the agriculture sector, land reform and skills development for youth.
Capacity constraints at all levels of the government in planning, implementing, supervising and
monitoring projects affected successful achievement of outcomes. The Bank enhanced its country
presence by placing experienced sector and fiduciary staff in the country office; this has contributed
toward improved sector dialogue and better implementation support, especially in fiduciary areas.
The Stakeholder Survey undertaken in 2011 generally portrayed a positive image of the Bank’s role
in Liberia, citing that the Bank is regarded as a “key and responsive partner”.
52. IFC supported activities led to significant improvements in the business and investment
climate, including support to private participation in infrastructure. IFC’s technical advisory
services supported the Government’s economic growth strategy and in 2010, Liberia was
recognized as a Top Ten Global Reformers in Doing Business. IFC’s programming included: (i)
proactive project development in infrastructure and several growth sectors (oil palm, rubber and
17 mining), (ii) increased investments and advisory services for direct impact on SMEs, and (iii)
additional activities in the financial sector to increase financial inclusion for a wider segment of
Liberians. IFC also provided catalytic investments to four financial institutions, including a microfinance bank and a SME focused venture fund.
53. IEG’s Liberia Country Program Evaluation, 2004-2011 assessed the assistance program
as both timely and well-aligned with the country’s goals. The evaluation concluded that
considerable progress has been made, although uneven, across sectors. The evaluation cited: (i)
impressive achievements in rebuilding core state functions; (ii) solid progress in rehabilitating
transport, waste management and power infrastructure; (iii) modest results in agriculture, education
and capacity-building. IEG in particular noted the importance of creating an integrated regime for
natural resource management and recommended the Bank’s involvement in other areas critical to
achieving long term peace, security and stability, such as employment generation.
54. The JCAS CR identified the following key lessons with implications for the design of the
new Country Partnership Strategy:
 Find the right balance between infrastructure and other sectors, while ensuring “strategic
selectivity”. Where the Bank has provided effective support and where there is an unfinished
strategic agenda, it is reasonable for the Bank to consolidate and scale-up the approaches and
interventions to benefit underserved population groups with key services or to address “drivers of
conflict”.
 Adapt and apply a sound fragility lens in the design and implementation of the upcoming CPS.
Liberia remains a fragile state and Bank project teams will have to focus on screening the project
activities against a potential escalation of conflict.
 Ensure that capacity development is at the heart of project preparation, implementation and is
monitored at a project, portfolio level and sector level in coordination with government and other
development partners.
 Ensure that the design and implementation of the CPS results matrix continues the strategic
results-based approach and is closely aligned with the AfT results framework.
 Promote sound procurement procedures, as well as expedited ones, supported by effective and
sustainable approaches to capacity development and implementation support.
 Ensure strong presence and continuity of experienced Bank staff in the Liberia Country Office to
enable the Bank to provide effective support to counterparts while gradually building the
government’s own capacity.
V. WBG COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FY 13-17
55. In the coming years Liberia will continue transitioning from fragility to stability while
transforming the country’s economy and institutions. The AfT highlights the urgency of
sustaining the recent gains by resolving the underlying drivers of conflict. The CPS will contribute
to the Government’s agenda by addressing major infrastructure gaps which will promote growth
and physically unite the country by supporting increased economic opportunities and by promoting
capable and accountable institutions that are closer to citizens. Recognizing the government’s
primary role in providing security and reconciling the nation, and the Bank’s mandate and limited
resources, the CPS will focus on those aspects of enhancing growth and reducing fragility that
18 reflect the comparative advantage of the Bank and are linked to a wider range of activities of the
Government and other development partners. Working in close partnership with the UN family will
be an essential component of the CPS.
56. The overarching objective of the CPS is to support the Government’s Agenda for
Transformation to contribute to sustained growth, poverty reduction and shared prosperity,
while exiting fragility and building resilience. Prosperity can be broad-based if growth generates
jobs and economic opportunities for all segments of the population. To spur and maintain this type
of growth, critical constraints, including the substantial infrastructure deficit (energy and roads),
private sector lack of access to credit and skills, and limited access and poor quality of education
and training need to be addressed. This will ensure that a wide cross-section of Liberians, especially
the less well-off, have the education and skills to take advantage of the emerging economic
opportunities.
57. The CPS Pillars are aligned with the Pillars of the AfT: i): Economic Transformation to
reduce constraints to rapid, broad-based and sustained economic growth to create employment; ii)
Human Development to increase access and quality of basic social services and reducing
vulnerability; and iii): Governance and Public Sector Institutions to improve public sector and
natural resources governance. The themes of capacity development and gender equity will be
mainstreamed throughout the portfolio.
58. Based on lessons learned from previous JCAS and the IEG evaluation, the following
strategic approaches will guide CPS design and implementation during the next five years:
i) Selectivity. The majority of new IDA operations during the CPS period will concentrate on
infrastructure, especially energy and transport. Through the current portfolio the Bank will continue
to be involved in human development and governance and, by leveraging scarce IDA funds with
development partners’ resources, develop a few new lending operations that will support the
government’s other priorities.
ii) Flexibility with a long-term engagement perspective is embedded in the design of the
CPS. Flexibility will be needed in order to allow for appropriate responses to changing country
circumstances or to take advantage of evolving development opportunities, including new
provisions of OP 10.00 for projects in situations of urgent need of assistance or capacity constraints,
additional financing and project restructuring. The midterm CPS Progress Report will take stock of
the evolution of the lending program and, based on analytical work and availability of IDA 17
resources, adjust the lending and AAA program. Complementarity, comparative advantage and
responsiveness to the client will determine specific interventions.
iii) Donor leveraging and investing in partnerships. Most of the investment operations of the
current portfolio involve development partners’ contributions leveraged by limited IDA 16
resources. The number of multi-donor trust funds has increased over the last several years as a
result of development partners increasingly joining efforts with the Bank in addressing priorities of
the government, especially in infrastructure and governance. The Bank will explore options and
focus technical assistance in designing operations that could also involve co-financing from the
Government’s public investment program. Building on the successful example of the Security
19 Public Expenditure Review (PER), the Bank will continue policy discussions and collaboration
with various stakeholders on issues of fragility and peace building.
iv) Application of a Liberia-tailored fragility lens in CPS activities. The fragility lens will be
less a tool than a process by which sector teams will work with conflict specialists to design an
operation so that the activities take into account risks associated with fragility and conflict drivers
and include adequate risk mitigation measures. Project design will have to be flexible enough to
allow for changes if negative impacts are found. The process will involve assessing factors such as
location, gender, youth and ethnic inclusion in addition to evaluating issues such as limited trust in
the state, mechanisms for conflict resolution and employment generation. A fragility analysis will
be prepared at the project concept stage and followed through the project cycle.
PILLAR I.
ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
Basic Infrastructure
59. The CPS supports the efforts of the Government to reduce the infrastructure gap and
increase access and connectivity. The focus will be on roads, energy, and communication, sectors
that are vital to the economic development and state and peace building agenda facing Liberia. In
each of these sectors, the strategy is to combine the delivery of results both in rural and urban areas
by building infrastructure and increasing access. Improvements in road and electricity infrastructure
will facilitate improved access to key social services including health and education for the poorest
Liberians. Integration into and with the region will be a long-term goal. The efforts under the CPS
will be informed by the experiences of the WBG in the country and region. Risks will be carefully
evaluated and mitigating measures provided for. It is expected that these investments will impact
the population, both urban and rural, through infrastructure construction and maintenance, through
processes of decision-making and participation, and most significantly, through their outcomes,
which contribute to economic growth and employment, governance and public security. These
wide-ranging effects can in turn increase Liberia’s stability and resilience.
20 CPS Pillar I Outcomes and Indicators*
Outcomes
Increased access to
reliable and
affordable energy.
Increased access to
reliable
transportation
services
Increased access to
telecommunications
services
Improved
management and
productivity in
agriculture, forestry
and fisheries
Indicators
‐ Number of people in urban and rural areas provided with access to electricity by household connection
increase from 14,270 to 50,000
‐ Cost of electricity decreases from 0.55 to 0.41 USD /KWH
‐ System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) for customers in Monrovia decreases from 20 to
15per month
‐ Share of rural population with access to an all season road increases from 5% to 10%
‐ Share of roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads increases from 15% to 35%
‐ Travel time along major corridor decreases: Monrovia to Guinea border from 12 to 6 hours, Monrovia to
Buchanan from 5 to 3 hours
‐ Share of qualified national staff in key competency areas at central level in the transport sector increases
from 10 % to 75%
‐ Access to Internet Services (number of subscribers per 100 people) increases from 1.7 to 3
‐ Volume of available international Capacity; International Communications (Internet, Telecoms, and Data)
bandwidth (Gbit/s) increase from 0.07 to 1.12
‐ Area under new technologies by WAAPP increases from 0 ha to 72,000 ha
‐ Area of smallholder tree crop farms rehabilitated, replanted or planted under STCRSP increases from 0 ha
to rehabilitation of 3,700 ha, replanting of 1,250 ha and new planting of 850 ha
‐ Total annual net economic benefit from targeted fisheries increases from US$3.9 million to US$8 million
‐ Number of strengthened Cocoa Farmers Organizations (FOs) increases from 0 to 43
‐ Fishing vessels observed by aerial/surface patrol or by radar and satellite monitoring that are committing a
serious infraction in targeted fisheries decreases from 45% to 33 %
‐ National REDD+ strategy is prepared and validated by national stakeholders
‐ Domestic for-profit businesses registered on the Ministry of Commerce’s Liberian Business Registry
(excluding NGOs, branches/ subsidiaries, foreign corporations and foundations) increases from 6,171 to
8,000
‐ Total commercial bank loans given to firms increases from 216 M to 500 M USD
‐ Amount invested within 3 years of completion of IFC investment climate reform project by local and
international firms increases from 71 M to 91 M USD
*Related WBG instruments are reflected in the Results Matrix (Annex 1)
Improved enabling
environment and
increased access to
finance for Liberian
SMEs
Energy
60. The CPS will contribute to the increase in the generation of and access to affordable and
reliable electricity for businesses and households, in addition to improving access to alternate
renewable generation methods in rural areas. Over 50,000 urban and rural clients will be
connected to electricity up from roughly 14,270 today providing additional opportunities for
households, small businesses, schools and hospitals. Quality improvements will be measured by a
decrease in average interruptions. A Least Cost Energy Access Plan (LCEAP) will provide the road
map and investment plan for the national expansion of the sector (generation and
transmission/distribution) until 2030. Work will begin to extend the national energy grid connecting
Monrovia to much of the rest of the country and the country itself to the rest of West Africa. This
will be essential for integrating Liberia’s national power system into a unified regional electricity
market and is part of the Bank’s Regional Integration Assistance Strategy for West Africa.
61. Instruments. The Bank is financing 10 MW of less expensive heavy fuel oil (HFO) power
generation, which will come on-line in time to compensate for the reduced production capacity
from the soon to be rehabilitated Mount Coffee Hydro plant in the dry season. In addition, current
support to the sector consists of one national IDA operation and 2 trust funds (GPOBA and Lighting
Africa) providing access to electricity to the poorest households in Monrovia and rural Liberia. In
the CPS period, two additional IDA operations will support increased generation, transmission and
21 distribution, beginning with the line from Monrovia to Kakata, the first part of the country’s main
economic growth corridor-triangle. A second line will be defined upon completion of the Bank
supported LCEAP. The Scaling-up Renewable Energy Program (SREP), approximately US$50
million in grant, will be implemented by the Bank and the ADB and will focus on increasing access
to mini-hydro and bio-mass on grid generated energy in rural areas.
62. The West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) project will interconnect Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra
Leone and Guinea into the WAPP Energy system and will develop the hydropower resources in the
sub-region. The regional context of the project will have a transformational impact in the national
power systems by building, for the first time in Liberian history, the energy backbone of the country
outside Monrovia. In addition, the WAPP project will physically integrate the electricity systems of
Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea and Sierra Leone thus increasing electricity supply, making better
use of generation resources, and improving system reliability, both in terms of supply adequacy and
security.
63. IFC plans to work with mining and agriculture concessionaires on the provision of power
needs through co-investment with an Independent Power Producer (IPP). In the future the
same IPP could increase its capacity and then have an off-take agreement - possibly backed by
MIGA - to supply power to local communities in a rural electrification program; two mining
companies have indicated interest in this initiative. As part of the Bank’s knowledge work, the
energy program will continue to strengthen the governance of the sector and build institutional and
human capacity in the Ministry of Land, Mines and Energy and the Liberian Electricity
Corporation, in coordination with other development partners. Previously, the WBG provided
advisory service and guidance on the development and tendering of a private sector Management
Contract (MC) for the Liberia Electricity Corporation; during the CPS period the geographical area
of the MC will be extended nationally to continue to strengthen LEC’s capacity to deliver
increasing number of household connections to electrical grid beyond Monrovia.
64. Development partners are coordinating their response to address the energy needs of
Liberia. Norway, Germany and the European Investment Bank are co-financing the rehabilitation
of the Mount Coffee Hydro, expected to generate approximately 80 MW in the rainy season by end
2016. The HFO generation capacity needed to provide the backup for Mount Coffee in the dry
season is also being supported by JICA (10MW) and the GoL self-financing of 18MW; an
additional 10MW is under negotiations with the Arab Bank. The WAPP is also supported in Liberia
by the ADB and the EIB. Major investments will be needed in creating additional transmission and
distribution. In addition to the Bank’s funding, support will be provided by USAID, Norway, Japan
and the European Union, which is already financing a cross border project with the Ivory Coast.
Transport
65. More Liberians will have increased access to reliable transport services. The share of total
roads classified as in good and fair condition will increase from the current 15 percent to 35
percent. Efforts during the CPS period will be focused on completing rehabilitation and reducing
travel time in key transportation corridors from Monrovia to Buchanan, Monrovia to Ganta and a
part of the South East corridor from Ganta to Harper. The completion of these major corridors will
increase access to local and regional markets and begin to physically unite the country internally
and with neighboring Ivory Coast and Guinea. Capacity development milestones include the
22 establishment and successful functioning of an independent Road Agency, which will be
responsible for maintaining the nation’s road network.
66. Instruments. Current interventions consist of four projects, with a total net commitment of
over US$400 million. Three additional transport operations are included in the CPS period; two are
additional financing for both URIRP (Urban-Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation) and LIBRAMP
(Liberia Asset Management Program). The third project will co-finance, along with the ADB and
the GoL, portions of the South East Corridor connecting the country’s poorest regions. The Banks’s
transport portfolio will continue to be co-financed by the Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund
(LRTF), established in 2006 and recently confirmed as the GoL’s preferred channel for donor
funding in transport and energy. IFC, together with the National Investment Commission (NIC), is
developing a Liberian private sector scan to determine the most viable economic sectors that would
attract foreign direct investment. Water transportation has been identified as a potential investment
opportunity and IFC will support NIC to identify a potential investor through the NIC-IFC leasing
program. A multi-sector transport development plan will be prepared, including a transport sector
investment plan. The Bank’s continued AAA program will focus on technical assistance to the
Ministry of Public Works to build specific sector capacity needed for the establishment of an
independent Road Agency.
67. The Bank’s transport portfolio is strongly coordinated with other development partners,
including those supporting the LRTF: the European Union, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom,
Germany and Ireland. Other key development partners supporting the sector include GiZ, ADB and
the Kuwaiti Fund. Together with Sweden, their programs support the rehabilitation of the country’s
secondary and farm to market roads. It is expected that the future Millennium Challenge Account
(MCA) program will also focus heavily on basic infrastructure; however, the MCA financing will
only become available towards the end of the CPS period.
Telecommunications
68. During the CPS period, there will be increased and improved access to affordable
internet services. The CPS envisions that access to internet will rise in the short term from 1.7 to 3
internet subscribers per hundred people and that the retail costs of internet services will decrease
from US$ 1500 to US$ 800 monthly. Investments in building the national fiber optic backbone will
be essential for reaching the access targets.
69. Instruments. The ongoing West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure project
(WARCIP) brought high quality internet to Liberia; the service was launched in early 2013 for
Monrovia. The Bank’s technical assistance in FY 14 will focus on the identification of best
approaches to i) close the connectivity gap and stimulate demand by creating relevant ICT
applications; ii) develop an action plan for creating ICT skills in the Liberian labor market and iii)
support to the Government to operationalize the ICT4D strategy. The study will also identify
options to finance the national backbone, including potential financing from both donors and the
private sector. IFC will explore possibilities to partner with the private sector in extending the
national backbone outside Monrovia.
23 Agriculture and Forestry
70. The CPS will contribute to the improved management and productivity in agriculture,
forestry and fisheries. A vibrant domestic agriculture sector will help to reduce the food import
bill, thereby contributing to improved food security and poverty reduction. CPS interventions
include pilot partnerships between concessions and smallholders that will link smallholders to
improved techniques, inputs and markets. Aproximately 5000 hectares of small farmer’s land will
be rehabilitated, replanted or newly planted with crops including coffee, cocoa, palm oil and rubber.
The joint IDA/IFC emphasis on tree crops builds on the findings of the (2008) Diagnostic Trade
Integration Study (DTIS), currently being updated, that suggested that more priority be given to tree
crops given their potential to enhance the income of some 450,000 households, mostly poor. For
the first time in decades, long term credit will be available to approximately 100,000 small holders.
In addition, it is expected that total net economic benefits from target fisheries will increase from
US$3.9 million to US$8 million as a result of higher local fish production and tightened control of
illegal fishery.
Box 2: Liberia and Climate Change
Liberia, like many developing countries, is strongly predisposed to severe negative impacts of climate change
and variability due to its fragile economy, weak resilience and low adaptive capacity. The 2012 Climate Change
Vulnerability Index ranks Liberia as one of the countries at high risk. Some of the climate related vulnerabilities
include: (i) rising sea levels of the coastal areas; displacement of people from Monrovia and Buchanan
(important cities for the growth and development of Liberia’s economy) is already increasing; ii) wide ranges of
changes in rainfall which could result in inundation of about 95 km2 of the coastal area and/or between 1 and
25% reduction in mean annual total runoff of the St. Paul River Basin1 , expected in the 2020s, which will affect
the production of hydroelectricity from the Mount Coffee hydropower plant and reduce the supply of raw water
to Monrovia; and (iii) increasing rainfall and flooding due to sea-level rises may lead to about 10 – 20%
increase in the country’s vulnerabilities to epidemics of malaria, cholera and diarrheal diseases. The Republic of
Liberia ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2002, and has
signed the Kyoto protocol. There is no dedicated climate change policy or strategy in place.
71. Instruments. The current IDA portfolio in Liberia consists of 2 regional projects (agricultural
and fisheries) and two national agricultural projects, the Small Holders Tree Crops, approved in FY
12 and the agricultural component of the AIDP, the Agricultural and Infrastructure Development
Project (FY 08). An Agriculture Sector “Landscape” Diagnostic will be prepared in FY 14. Work
in the forestry sector in Liberia will continue through trust funds and analytical work. The Bank will
remain engaged in the sector through the involvement in the REDD plus agenda, which will support
the preparation and validation of a strategy to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation. The implementation of this strategy will help to reduce the vulnerability of Liberia to
climate change. Policy dialogue will be continued to follow up on the recommendations to address
serious governance issues stemming from Forestry Sector Diagnostic prepared in FY 13.
72. During the CPS period, the agricultural sector will receive substantial assistance from
other development partners. USAID, the ADB, FAO, EU, IFAD, Japan, China and Germany, all
have programs supporting the agricultural sector's investment program (LASIP) and the Food
Security and Nutrition Strategy. Programs support agricultural commodity value chains for staples
such as rice and cassava, vegetable and small livestock diversification and promotion of small
holder tree crops schemes. The principal external support to the Liberia Forest Sector comes from
24 the European Union, DfID, USAID, FAO and Flora and Fauna International. The EU and DfID are
supporting Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) implementation, including supporting
institutional capacity building in the Forestry Development Agency. The objective of the program is
to assist the regulation of the domestic market and the integration of many existing (and informal)
small forest and forest-resource dependent enterprises into formal and regulated trade and
commerce. USAID recently concluded the Land Rights and Community Forestry program and will
support a follow-up program called PROSPER (People, Rules and Organizations Supporting the
Protection of Ecosystem Resources), which will focus on support to community management of
forest resources.
Private Sector Development
73. WBG interventions will focus on improving the business-enabling environment and
increasing access to finance for businesses. Through its Conflict Affected States in Africa
(CASA) Initiative, IFC will continue the delivery of advisory service programs to improve the
investment climate, focusing on the lagging indicators tracked by the World Bank Group’s Doing
Business Report. It is expected that the number of days on average to start a business will be
reduced from 6 to 4 and that, by the end of the CPS period, more that 1800 new domestic
businesses will be registered on the Ministry of Commerce’s Liberian Business Registry. With
respect to increased access to credit, it is expected that total commercial loans given to firms by
Liberian based banks will increase to US$500 million from the current US$ 216 million during the
CPS period. 25 percent of those firms will be owned by women. The gender aspects of these results
will be better reflected in the CPSPR: currently accurate base-line data is not available.
74. Instruments. A Private Sector Development Strategy (PSDS), developed with support from
the World Bank and IFC will result in a cohesive strategy and action plan for diversification of the
local private sector. The PSDS will leverage the results of other knowledge products, such as the
ongoing Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) update, which will assess the constraints to the
integration of the domestic private sector into global value chains. Besides support for improving
the investment climate and a strengthened public private dialogue, the IFC will take the lead in
developing financial sector infrastructure such as a collateral registry and a credit information
sharing system, while the World Bank will provide longer-term support for institutional capacity
development in areas such as bank supervision, credit assessment, reporting and enforcement. The
Financial Sector Assessment Program, which has never been done in Liberia, could be undertaken
to inform the development of a Financial Sector Development Strategy.
75. The WBG will continue to support private sector participation in rebuilding infrastructure by
assisting the Government of Liberia in developing integrated scenarios for power and transport
investments that better link concessions with the rest of the economy. Based on those scenarios,
specific projects could be identified to connect mining concessions to the transmission network thus
increasing the possibility of connecting small businesses and secondary towns to the grid at a lower
cost.
76. The CPS also provides for technical assistance from the WBG to develop private-public
partnerships (PPP) for utilities management and development, particularly electricity. The
assistance would include a review of the regulatory systems and the design of options to make
25 power sector attractive for private sector investment. Technical Assistance will be provided to
enhance GoL's ability to manage existing assets in a more productive manner structure, advise on
tariff structure, ensure compliance of tendering processes and dispute resolution and develop best
practice models for project management and oversight. MIGA could provide private sector utilities
investors with termination guarantee credit enhancement, regulatory risks coverage and other
investment risk mitigation instruments.
PILLAR II.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
77. The CPS continues support for improved outcomes in education, health and social
protection. The improved outcomes will be delivered through increased access and quality of basic
social services, and from strengthening systems and human capacity to deliver those services. The
investments in infrastructure for greater connectivity should ease service delivery covering
gradually a greater share of the population and favor job creation and generate income
opportunities. Better provision of quality social services and building social safety net to address
the needs of extreme poor will allow Liberia to progress towards the MDGs, increase trust in the
state and its ability to create opportunities for all Liberians. The CPS will also promote direct
creation of employment through targeted programs focused on the young and eventually
mainstreaming job creation in all operations.
CPS Pillar II Outcomes and Indicators*
Outcomes
Improved conditions for
learning and
management capacity in
basic education
Indicators
‐ Number of children attending primary school in ‘improved’ facilities as defined by technical
assessment increases from 4,590 to 8,910
‐ Number of Grade 1-9 students benefitting from school grants, learning materials, supplementary
readers under GPE Basic Education Project increases from 0 to 591,000
‐ Number of schools single signatories to own bank account increases from 0 to 2,500
‐ Knowledge score of medical residency students according to key curriculum benchmarks by
Health -Systems Strengthening Project increases from 60 to 75
Improved capacity of
health service delivery in
selected secondary-level
health facilities
Improved protection of
‐ Number of work days created under YES project increases from 1.12 million to 1.8 million
poor and vulnerable
households
*Related WBG instruments are reflected in the Results Matrix (Annex 1)
78. The CPS will continue to improve education quality while strengthening management
capacity within the sector. Over 5,000 new students will attend improved facilities; 40 new
schools will be constructed in isolated areas according to improved school construction standards to
improve access to education, especially for girls. Students will have access to better textbooks;
teachers will be supported through training and methodological material and, for the first time,
approximately 600,000 students will benefit from school grants, all of which will strengthen schoolbased management. The school grants, based on a formula of school remoteness and numbers of
pupils enrolled, will improve the environment for teaching and learning. Strengthening governance
through better procurement practices at a local level will also be emphasized. While most activities
26 will continue to focus on basic education level, quality enhancement of post-basic education will
ensure a tighter linkage between human resources and labor market demands.
79. The CPS will focus on enhancing capacity of the public health sector to deliver quality
service, especially targeting the maternal and child mortality MDGs. Better health outcomes
will be reached by: a) improving the quality of care for services with proven effectiveness; (b)
increasing the availability of qualified graduate physicians (pediatricians, obstetricians, general
surgeons, and internal medicine specialists, with cross-cutting focus on anesthesiology); (c)
enhancing the clinical competencies and motivation of mid-level cadres (nurses, midwives, and
physician assistants), and (d) improving provider accountability mechanisms related to both the
achievement of results, and health worker performance at selected facilities. In total, seven hospitals
will be included in the graduate medical residency program (GMRP); all but one are located outside
of Monrovia. At least 10 percent of all maternal and child deaths will be audited as part of a
national campaign, led by the Ministry of Health and WHO.
80. CPS support to social protection will focus on increasing resilience among poor and
vulnerable households, in line with the Government’s Liberia Youth Employment Program
(LYEP) and Social Protection Strategy and Policy (SPSP). A multi-sector Bank team is
supporting the Government in developing the LYEP to improve employability and employment of
15 to 34 year-olds, focusing on a diverse group of young Liberians. Design will also be informed
by results and lessons learned from the Bank’s current operations, including 3 ongoing investment
operations financed by IDA and TFs. In its final phases, the ongoing operations will begin to
engage communities, particularly in remote and typically marginalized areas, by helping young
people to engage in longer-term productive activities through extended training package, including
literacy, numeracy and business skills, and by linking them to local markets thus providing for more
sustainable livelihoods. Extension and scaling up of the current Economic Empowerment of
Adolescent Girls (EPAG) project will continue building on a very successful skills-to- employment
model, which will be extended to include boys along with adolescent girls.
81. Instruments. Two new IDA HD operations are currently planned for the CPS period. First, a
FY 13 health sector project will be a follow-up to the project closed in FY12. 18 The second
operation, programed for FY 15, will build on lessons learned from the ongoing Youth Employment
and Skills (YES) Project, Community Empowerment Project (CEP) and the EPAG project, and will
address the mismatch of supply and demand in the labor market. IDA funding may be accompanied
by a Japanese Social Development Fund grant. Programmatic AAA in human development will
continue to assist the Government in analyzing links between post-basic education and skills for
employment and in designing programs that will support job creation, especially for youth. In
addition, efforts will be made to help the Government in using their own resources allocated to
employment programs in a more effective manner. The analytical work to explore the options of
creating social safety net to address the needs of the extreme poor will be undertaken. Outcomes
expected from new programs will be defined in the CPS Progress Report.
18
The new health operation is a follow-up to the Health Systems Reconstruction Project (HSRP) that closed in FY 12. Over
the course of the project, 212 health facilities were constructed, renovated and/or equipped, and 895 health workers have
been trained. In addition, a Bank supported the formulation of a National Health Strategy and Plan and a comprehensive
Health Financing Policy and Plan.
27 82. The Global Partnership for Education Grant, of which US$ 32 million out of US $ 40 million
remain undisbursed, will support the outcomes in education sector. Knowledge work in the
education sector will inform the Government on policy options for improving post-basic education,
particularly addressing the needs in the transport, energy, agriculture, health, and education sectors,
including opportunities to establish linkages for Liberian universities with the new WB funded
regional program, the African Centers for Excellence.
83. Additional funding for the Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation Program in FY 14 from the
LRTF will continue to support the Monrovia City Corporation (MCC) in providing environmentally
sustainable waste collection services. The Bank’s Water and Sanitation Program (WSP) will
continue to provide technical assistance to sector institutions, including technical assistance to
increase the commercial capacity of the Liberian Water and Sewage Corporation.
84. A large number of development partners are supporting the social sectors, which requires
close coordination and collaboration. In education, UNICEF, USAID and UNESCO, together
with the WB, have been primarily supporting basic education. The EU, however, will prioritize
secondary education in their new planning cycle which begins in 2014. China has also committed to
supporting the re-construction of several technical education centers. Primary health care is also the
focus of the majority of development partners, including USAID, EU, WHO and the pool fund,
supported by UNICEF, UNHCR, DfID and Irish Aid. The EU is providing significant budget
support to the health sector (approx.US$ 45 million over a three-year period). ADB is investing in
improving water systems in Monrovia, and, together with USAID, DfID, UNICEF and Irish Aid,
building water systems in counties. A large number of small social safety net programs will require
thorough assessment to determine the best ones. For example, the first Cash Transfer program for
labor constrained households in two counties, piloted by UNICEF with the EU funding, could
possibly be scaled –up.
PILLAR III. GOVERNANCE AND PUBLIC SECTOR INSTITUTIONS
85. The CPS supports efforts to consolidate the governance efforts of the recent past and
create the new institutions that will transform the economy and society profiting from
increasing resources and weakening the drivers of conflict and frailty. The focus will be on
four specific areas. The first maintains attention on improving financial management, beginning
with improved compliance with current norms and tracking progress continuously. The focus of the
second area will be on improving the quality of the civil service. The third addresses thorny land
issues that have been drivers of conflict that must not remain unattended. Lastly, sharpened
attention will be given to improving the governance of the natural resource sectors to prepare for
using the increased revenues in a transparent and productive manner. Work in the two other pillars
equally supports the governance improving efforts, especially because they are programed to
contribute to the enhanced legitimacy and presence of the state through greater connectivity,
increased employment opportunities and better service delivery. The WBG will encourage through
its interventions attention to local development and community participation, while more
decentralized and participatory structures emerge.
28 CPS Pillar III Outcomes and Indicators*
Outcomes
Improved public financial
management
Indicators
‐ Extent of unreported government operations (PEFA PI-7 Score) improves from D+ to B
‐ Scope, nature and follow-up of external audits (PEFA PI-26 Score)improves from D+ to C+
Improve land
‐ Deed registry completion increases from 0% to 80 %
administration
*Related WBG instruments are reflected in the Results Matrix (Annex 1)
86. Strengthened financial management, measured by improved scores in future Public
Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessments, will continue be an important
area of Bank support during the CPS period. Priority attention will be given to areas with the
weakest performance as measured under PEFA, such as budgetary planning and budget credibility,
budget execution, including procurement and accounting systems, and financial reporting as well as
external audit and legislative scrutiny. In addition, the CPS seeks to contribute, through technical
assistance and with close coordination with the IMF, to improvements in the institutional capacity
for planning and implementing the public investment program with a view to strengthening national
public investment practices. The Bank will also assist the Ministry of Finance in the implementation
of a gender expenditure tracking system.
87. Instruments. A series of programmatic budget support operations and a FY 12 Public
Financial Management IDA operation will continue to support the Government’s reform agenda
during the CPS period. A public administration focused IDA operation is programmed for FY 14 to
deepen the reform process in the civil service. The Bank will continue to provide support to the
Government’s efforts to develop an affordable, independent, responsive and accountable civil
service. Three key areas will be emphasized: i) strengthening the institutional capacity for public
sector management ii) human resource management and pay reform and iii) in-service training and
capacity -building across the civil service. Concrete results and outcomes will be identified in the
CPS progress report.
88. It is expected that there will be two additional IDA operations in the area of natural resource
management, including land administration. The CPS program will deepen its engagement on land
issues, which have been identified as one of the chief sources of conflict in Liberia today. Longerterm Bank efforts to strengthen land administration systems will be complemented by a program
designed to build capabilities for inclusive and equitable citizen engagement in land and natural
resource management. Bank budget support will also finance the finalization of crucial new
policies and laws for land rights to provide clear distinction between the different classes of land
and security of tenure. The Bank will also continue to support alternative dispute mechanisms
within the official justice system; this is currently supported by the State and Peace-building Fund
allocation. An additional SPF support will be sought to not only address information asymmetries
that limit meaningful citizen-state-investor engagement, but also document emerging local
capabilities for effective citizen engagement on land and natural resource management. Across the
full range of instruments, opportunities will be identified to strengthen demand-side accountability
by integrating open knowledge and collaborative governance approaches. This will help to ensure
that government and non-government stakeholders are connected to the “how” of reform and that
29 non-state actors can mobilize for collective action and deploy social accountability processes to
guide and support progress toward development objectives.
89. Given the growing critical importance of improved transparency and accountability in the
natural resource sector, the Bank, together with other development partners, will increase its reform
support to improve natural resource governance. CPS support for the Government’s agenda will
center on (i) transparency, (ii) consistency and (iii) regulatory clarity in the management of natural
resources. On transparency, the Bank will continue supporting the work of the Liberia Extractive
Industry Transparency Initiative to produce and publish audited reports of payments and receipts
from the natural resource sectors. WBI’s collaborative efforts with SEGOM and AFTPM on
extractives procurement monitoring, and the work of the IMF on expenditure tracking will
complement these efforts. While encouraging oil exploration results are being recorded, no
commercial oil discovery has yet been declared. Thus in the short term, the Bank will support
Liberia’s on-going reform of the legal and regulatory framework for oil and gas exploration and
assist Liberia in building its capacity to negotiate fair contracts with investors. In the event that a
commercial oil discovery is declared, the Bank’s support will focus on building institutional
capacity to regulate and monitor oil and gas operations, assess and collect taxes and royalties, and
manage and invest petroleum revenues. The policy dialogue will seek to bring best practices
available into the design of model contracts for concessions that ensure consistency of treatment for
all concessionaires. Support to improve regulatory clarity will be provided through a series of
Development policy operations and complementary technical assistance provided by the Bank or
other partners.
90. Donor support in Governance and public sector modernization is organized by specific
themes, including civil service reform (USAID, ADB, EU and Sweden), all of which will either
support a MDTF managed by the Bank or provide parallel funding, such as is currently the case
with the PFM MDTF. Natural resource governance, including land, is supported by UNHABITAT,
USAID, the Millennium Challenge Account, UNDP, AusAid, DfID, the EU, Japan, Norway and
Sweden. The Bank will also work closely with the UN Peace-building fund and the Justice and
Security Board in continuing the dialogue on strengthening the justice system through alternative
dispute mechanisms.
Cross-cutting Themes
91. The CPS is drawing on various gender-integrated diagnostic studies, done by the Bank
and other development partners, to mainstream gender through its program. Examples
include: a 2009 Gender Assessment conducted by USAID, a 2012 UNICEF study on women and
children, and a Gender Profile done in FY 13 by the African Development Bank. The selective
mainstreaming includes economic empowerment of women, increasing girl’s access to education,
health programming focused on MDG’s 5 and 6, tracking of gender expenditure in the budget and
the scaling-up the current Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls (EPAG), which is serving
as a model for components of the Government’s National Youth Employment Program. The Bank
will also work on strengthening the institutions in charge of gender policy and implementation.
Technical and advisory services will continue to support the Ministry of Gender and Development
and the newly funded Adolescents Girls Unit AGU) funded by an IDF grant whose objective is to
support the development of a platform for government, civil society organizations and local
communities to work better together on adolescent girls issues.
30 92. Capacity development will be mainstreamed both in terms of supply- side considerations
related to policies, staffing skills and organizational systems and for demand-side issues
pertaining to local stakeholder participation in and ownership of development processes.
Supply-side constraints are aggravated by existing institutional inadequacies that occasionally
encourage patronage and inefficiency. In the short to medium term, human capacity development in
the public sector will need to use innovative capacity- building mechanisms and be matched with a
concurrent government agenda to absorb trained personnel.
93. Institutional strengthening and human resource capacity development will be
mainstreamed in current and new operations. Key capacity development objectives will be
prioritized by addressing organizational and human capacity constraints in critical sectors, such as
transport, energy, health, education. Other priorities reflect the need to address pervasive capacity
issues across sectors, including increasing local stakeholder participation, oversight, and social
accountability in the development and implementation of basic services and economic
opportunities, improving the compatibility of local social norms and customs with the country
development objectives, and increasing the operational efficiency of local government for improved
service delivery. The on-going training programs for procurement and financial management are
good examples of capacity development initiatives that aim to strengthen not only project
implementation, but also support institutional strengthening at ministry and sector levels. Lastly,
these interventions will be monitored across the portfolio to help ensure the achievement of targeted
development outcomes.
94. Increased transparency and accountability of public and private institutions will be a
priority. Focused capacity development technical assistance will address: improving effectiveness
of corruption prevention systems, including implementation of a newly enacted (May 2013) law on
anti-money laundering, strengthening the existing Asset Disclosure System, ongoing work with
Civil Society on transparency initiatives, and assistance for Stolen Assets Recovery Mechanism, all
funded by Bank BB and TFs. In the FY 12 approved PFM operation, where $5 million IDA
leveraged a $23 million MDTF, a grant fund will be available for non-state actors active in the area
of budget transparency, contract monitoring and natural resource governance. Other support will
permit CSOs to begin to adapt and use technology to support citizen engagement within the spirit of
the Access to Information Law. The Open Government Partnership of which Liberia is a member
will be a useful platform in this regard. In addition, CSOs and the media will be invited to support
the implementation of the CPS itself via periodic briefings on project implementation and the
expansion of new instruments of accountability such as the External Implementation Status Report
(E-ISRs) and other social accountability activities in the sectors.
95. The Bank will also begin to engage with the government to increase the country’s
capacity to develop and strengthen national capacity in Disaster Risk Management with
particular focus on emergency preparedness. More specifically, this capacity development
intervention, funded by a technical assistance Grant in the amount of US$544,500, under the World
Bank’s Global Funds for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR), aims to support the Government to
establish effective and functional legal and institutional framework for disaster risk management.
This framework will include links with climate change adaptation and risk management by: (i)
strengthening risk identification mechanisms, (ii) enhancing information and knowledge
management for DRM; (iii) reducing underlying risk vulnerability factors by improving risk
31 management application at various levels and (iv) strengthening disaster preparedness and
emergency response and recovery practices.
96. In line with IDA’s Managing for Results agenda, IDA will leverage internal and external
financing to strengthen Liberia’s capacity to produce credible development statistics for use in
evidence-based policy making. The national statistical systems comprising the Liberia Institute of
Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) and other ministries and agencies involved in the
production of statistics will be strengthened in terms of data collection and analysis. One of the
main results of this support will be the implementation of a National Strategy for the Development
of Statistics and a program for data collection, including the Household Income and Expenditure
Survey (HIES), which will be funded by a MDTF administered by the Bank. Using another joint
UN- WB trust fund, the Bank will continue to help the Government to build country systems in
results management (monitoring system, learning from feedback and operational adjustment,
rewarding for performance) and risk management (FM, procurement, safeguards).
VI.IMPLEMENTING THE CPS FY 13-17
FINANCING SOURCES
97. The IDA allocation for the lending program for the CPS period is expected to be about
US$ 308 million. The CPS period will encompass the remaining years of IDA 16 and the full IDA
17 allocation, which is assumed to be at least equal to that of IDA 16. Annual allocation for IDA
cycles are indicative only, with actual allocations determined by: (i) total IDA resources available,
(ii) the country’s performance rating; (iii) the performance and assistance terms of other IDA
borrowers; (iv) the terms of IDA's assistance to country (credit and blend terms for PNG) and; (v)
the number of IDA-eligible countries.
98. The majority of available IDA financing during the CPS period will focus on investment
in the energy and transport sectors, in response to the Government’s request. Doing so will
also build on successful interventions during the previous JCAS period and maximizing the impact
these investments will have had on removing binding constraints for economic growth and wellbeing of population. In addition, a series of Development Policy Loans, of approximately US$ 10
million a year will be programmed to support Economic Transformation, Human Development and
Governance and Public Institutions Pillars of the AfT. The remainder of IDA’s financing will
support building institutional and human capacity essential for the successful implementation of the
country’s long-term vision. The CPS Progress Report will revisit the sector allocations at midterm.
32 Table 3: IDA Indicative Lending and IDA/IFC Key AAA Program, 2013-17
IDA Lending
Key AAA
AfT Pillars
FY 13
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16/17
Youth Vulnerability Study
Decentralization Diagnostics
Political Economy Notes
Pillar I - Peace,
Justice, Security
and Rule of Law
Pillar II Economic
Transformation
(CPS Pillar I)
FY 13-17
AF - Liberia
Road Asset
Management
Project
(LIBRAMP)
LiberiaAccelerated
Electricity
Expansion
Project(LACEEP)
Pillar III - Human
Development
(CPS Pillar II)
Liberia Health
Systems
Strengthening
Project
Pillar IV Governance and
Public Institutions
(CPS Pillar III)
Poverty
reduction
Support Credit
AF –Liberia
Urban and
Rural
Infrastructure
Rehabilitation
Project
(URIRP)
Transport Project
(Ganta to Harper
road)
AF - Accelerated
Electricity
Expansion
Project(LACEEP)
Youth
Employment/SSN
Poverty
reduction
Support Credit
Civil Service
Reform Project
PSD Programmatic AAA and TA (joint
with IFC)
DTIS Update
Agriculture PER
Transport Sector PER
Urban Policy Note
ICT Backbone Feasibility Study and TA
IFC AS to identify Investors in Water
Transportation
Agriculture Sector “ Landscape”
Diagnostic
Higher Education Strategy
Health Financing Note
Poverty Note
HD Programmatic AAA and TA - Skills
for Jobs
Poverty Assessment
IFC AS Education for Employment
Poverty reduction
Support Credit
Poverty reduction
Support Credit
Land
Administration
Natural Resource
Management
Governance
Project
Policy Note on Extractive Industries
Governance
TA on Oil Sector Governance
Programmatic AAA in Natural Resource
Management
Efficiency and Value for Money in Budget
Execution
Land Sector TA
Public Investment Program TA
PREM Policy Notes
99. The current IDA portfolio consists of 17 approved projects, including 4 regional projects,
for a total commitment of US$559.8 million. Infrastructure accounts for almost 85 percent,
followed by social sectors (4 percent), agriculture and environment (5 percent) and economic
management (6 percent). The portfolio is relatively new with an average age of 2.3 years. It is also
healthy, of the ten national IDA projects that are disbursing, seven are rated satisfactory and three
moderately satisfactory in achievement of their development objectives. Five of the ten projects
have a satisfactory rating in Implementation Progress while the rest are rated moderately
satisfactory. Disbursements (26.8 percent for FY 13) have been above the Africa Region’s average,
and there are no problem projects in the portfolio.
33 Figure 4: Liberia Portfolio by Sector
3% 1%
1%
4%
Liberia Country Portfolio
Transport
6%
Energy
5%
Communication
42%
Solid Waste
Management
Agriculture
Education/Health
38%
Social Protection
Economic Management
/Governance
100. The IFC’s current and future portfolio of investments and advisory services will be
essential in delivering the agreed CPS agenda, which will be complemented by a joint
Business Plan elaborated by IDA and IFC. The current IFC portfolio comprises US$ 7million in
equity, US$13million credit and trade lines in four (4) Liberian banks; US$13million seed
investment in the West Africa Venture Fund for direct on-lending to, or equity in SMEs and
US$10million debt financing to a rubber producer. A robust pipeline of potential new IFC
investments signals an average of US$60-80 million per year over the time period of this CPS.
Priority sectors for new IFC investments during the CPS period will be agribusiness, power and
infrastructure, financial services and mining while advisory resources will include strategic
engagement in education for employment, agriculture, finance and private sector development.
Table 4: Current IFC Investment Portfolio (US$ million)
Current Investments
1
Liberia Bank for Development and Investment
(LBDI)
2
Salala Rubber Corporation
3
Access Bank (Microfinance bank)
Equity
Debt
Trade Line
0.3
-
-
10.0
2.0
Total
-
1.3
1.3
4
Ecobank Liberia
5
Guaranty Trust Bank
-
-
4.0
6
West Africa Venture Fund
-
-
-
7
Cemeco/Heidelburg US$ 110.0 at Group Level
Hummingbird
Total
2.3
10.0
-
8
Fund
3.0
6.0
-
9.0
4.0
13.5
13.5
-
-
-
-
0.0
5.4
-
-
-
5.4
7.0
13.0
12.0
13.5
45.5
101. The resource envelope will also include a strategic use of multi-donor and bilateral trust
funds, and of grant resources available through global programs. Trust Funds will continue to
be an important source of funding to achieve strategic results of the CPS. Given the limited IDA
envelope relative to Liberia’s substantial investment needs, attempts will be made to use IDA
credits to leverage donor grants through co-financing or pooled arrangements. The Bank has
established a good track record in the use of Multi-donors funds for infrastructure and efforts will
34 be made to build on this record. At the end of FY 12, the country program had 60 active trust funds
(both Bank and Recipient executed) with a net commitment of US$ 276.5 of which US$ 198.7
million was still to be disbursed. The Bank will seek possibilities to consolidate the trust fund
portfolio and directly link it to the CPS strategic themes and lending program.
PARTNERSHIPS
102. According to OECD-DAC statistics for 2011, Liberia remains heavily dependent from
financial aid of development partners. In 2011 the total ODA disbursements for Liberia were
more than US$ 717 million, of which US$ 490 million were provided by bilateral partners and US$
227 by multilateral partners. Together with the European Union and the United States, the WBG
continues to be one of the most significant development partners. In 2011 the ODA per capita was
US$ 185 and almost 70 percent of the total ODA to Liberia was directed to the health, education
and other social sectors, including humanitarian aid.
Figure 5: Top 10 Donors in 2011 (disbursements, in million USD) 19
29.86
United States
29.7
30.18
Germany
149.86
41.29
EU Institutions
IDA
Sweden
44.11
Belgium
104.04
44.52
Japan
AfDF
58.79
Norway
83.22
Source: Aidflows, World Bank, OECD and Asian Development Bank database
103. Despite the multiplicity of players, the collaboration amongst development partners has
improved significantly. There are active donor working groups, often co-chaired with the
Government, in several priority sectors, including energy, transport, agriculture, forestry, land,
justice and peace, health and education. Bank operations have been and will continue to be closely
coordinated and, in many cases, co-financed with other donors using multi-donor trust funds.
Given the growing presence of non- traditional donors, such as China, the country team will explore
the possibility of parallel or joint financing of major infrastructure projects in addition to more
opportunities for south-south learning exchanges. Building on the already existing close partnership
with the UN in Liberia, the country team will continue exploring opportunities to further align or
complement activities, especially in areas fostering reconciliation.
104. The Government is committed to create a new Aid Policy Framework, including the
establishment of the Liberia Development Alliance (LDA). The LDA is a successor coordination
19
Aidflows, World Bank, OECD and Asian Development Bank database.
35 platform to the Liberia Reconstruction and Development Committee (LRDC), and it will oversee
the implementation of the AfT. The LDA will be the Government’s most strategic forum for
working with development partners, civil society and private sector in addressing key development
issues in Liberia. This forum, chaired by the President, will promote high level strategic
coordination and policy dialogue to ensure the alignment of partner programs with Liberia’s
development strategy.
105. Liberia was a key participant in the creation of the New Deal and is a pilot country for its
implementation. Liberia’s Vision Liberia Rising 2030 and the AfT are aligned with the Principles
of New Deal in Fragile States and Liberia’s new Aid Policy Framework intends to strengthen
mechanism of coordinating development partners. The New Deal and the five Peace and Statebuilding Goals (PSG) present an opportunity to enhance the way that the international community
engages in conflict and post-conflict countries. The World Bank in Liberia, in close cooperation
with international development partners and the UN, will continue to have a central role in
advocating for enhanced transparency, strengthening of national capacities and improved timeliness
of aid in order for funding to achieve better results. For example, the continuous work in building
sustainable national financial management and procurement capacity will directly support the PSG
of strengthening country systems.
MONITORING AND EVALUATION
106. The CPS has been selective in choosing outcome indicators and, to the extent possible,
the outcomes, outputs and indicators from the AfT, have been used. Liberia’s statistical capacity
is very limited, therefore, the outcomes and outputs have been carefully chosen to ensure that they
are measureable and progress can be monitored and assessed. A joint UN-WB trust fund is
supporting the development of a monitoring and evaluation system for the AfT, which in turn will
be used to monitor CPS strategic activities. Since the bulk of results are to be produced by ongoing projects and AAA, the CPS Progress Report will update the results framework to reflect
changes and advances in the implementation and adequacy of the program. The Bank continues to
provide support for improving statistical capacity, including a new MDTF to support the
implementation of the first comprehensive Household Income and Expenditure Survey to provide a
robust basis for measuring GDP, inflation and poverty. This should facilitate a much stronger link
and alignment between, on the one hand, the national M&E and statistics system; and, on the other,
the Bank’s projects and activities as outlined in the CPS.
107. The CPS will improve monitoring and evaluation. The Bank will take stock of the current
mechanisms that capture results in projects and take actions to ensure quality design and avoid past
difficulties in compiling reliable and comparable data for outcome monitoring. If necessary, the
results framework of the on-going projects will be revisited. Projects will be required to report
results quarterly, and the use of surveys will be promoted and made systematic to report on progress
achieved with Bank-financed operations. Through using the fragility lens, project interventions will
be monitored to ensure a do-no-harm approach.
VII. RISKS TO CPS IMPLEMENTATION
108. The current security situation in Liberia remains fragile but stable, manifesting itself in
random outbreaks of violence mainly related to land disputes and elections. Regional
36 instability also continues to have spill-over effects, with increased risk due to the gradual UNMIL
drawdown. There have been incidents of armed violence in the border areas with Ivory Coast
where Liberia ex-combatants continue to cross over to participate in sporadic fighting. To help
mitigate the security risks, UNMIL is providing support to expand the training and strengthen the
presence of local police forces, especially along the south-east border. At present, the Liberian
security forces do not have the capacity to adequately deal with these situations. Close coordination
with UNMIL will continue, particularly since the new investment operations will increasingly target
rural areas. The Liberia Country office will also work with UNMIL and the Bank’s regional security
team with respect to standard security procedures for staff and visiting missions. The Bank will
continue to cooperate with the UN family on issues critical to sustained peace, such as youth
employment and land administration, through close coordination in the implementation of the UN’s
Peace Building Fund (PBF) and the Bank’s State and Peace-building Fund (SPF). The CPS
program will also contribute to increased security by supporting a national and regional
connectivity agenda in energy, transport and telecommunications.
109. Political risks associated with the national elections in 2017 and the upcoming
parliamentary elections in 2014 are moderate to high. It is expected that succession and
generational change rhetoric will increasingly become a key part of the political discourse as
elections approach. The already tense relationship between the Executive and Legislative may
further deteriorate, making it increasingly difficult to reach agreement on critical reform issues.
Effectiveness delays in Bank operations, due to the delay in legislative ratification of bank credits,
have been one of the major problems facing the portfolio in Liberia. The mitigation measures will
include: i) strengthened communication with the Legislature; ii) continued support for training the
legislative branch of the Government and iii) assistance, if needed, to the Ministry of Finance in
communicating to the Legislature the Bank’s lending program and the outcomes it intends to reach.
The Bank will also work with non-state actors to support the implementation of the CPS and will
continue public information events such as quarterly media briefings focusing on sector specific
operations.
110. Macro-economic risks are non-trivial but manageable. Liberia is heavily dependent on
primary exports, including rubber, iron ore, oil palm and timber and on imported fuel and food. In
the medium-term, much of the investments to drive economic growth will come from foreign
investors leaving the country vulnerable to risks from external shocks to global commodity and
financial markets. There are also risks of fiscal slippage as the Government may not fully realize its
borrowing program, which could put pressure on attaining goals set in the AfT and supported by the
Bank’s program. Some of these risks will be mitigated through the continuance of prudent fiscal
and macroeconomic management (on which the Government has a good track record) with the
support from the IMF through the recently agreed Extended Credit Facility arrangement. In
addition, there is ongoing efforts (supported by the World Bank and other donors) to broaden the
base of the economy and diversify exports through investments in agriculture and small and
medium enterprises.
111. Limited capacity in the public and private sector to design and implement reforms and
projects will be a significant challenge for CPS implementation. The government continues to
rely on donor funded short term consultants to perform critical functions, and foreign technical
labor will continue to play an important role in investment activities. Limited public sector capacity
and significant centralization in decision making could lead to delays and, subsequently affect
37 project implementation. Government is aware of capacity constraints and intends to allocate a
significant part of its own budget for capacity building measures. Several ongoing and planned
operations in public financial management, public sector reform as well as specific sector
operations will help to bridge the capacity gap. The innovative programs in strengthening
procurement and financial management skills will continue through the CPS period. In addition,
the WBG, in coordination with other donor partners, will analyze and address capacity development
issues in each sector to support institutional and human capacity building required for the
implementation of the AfT.
112. Notwithstanding the substantial progress made in improving economic governance in
general and the fiduciary system in particular, weaknesses that present opportunities for
corruption and the diversion of resources from their intended purpose remain. For example,
while the IFMIS has streamlined many of the financial operations, it has not been rolled out to all
ministries and furthermore it appears that the internal audits units are not yet sufficiently robust to
address internal control weaknesses. To help mitigate the fiduciary risks, the World Bank through
the Integrated Public Financial Management Project is supporting the roll-out of the IFMIS to other
ministries and agencies and to expand its coverage to donor resources. In addition, the World Bank
is also strengthening financial management and procurement through advanced professional
programs as well as in-service training. During the CPS period, the Bank will strengthen efforts to
support governance reforms, especially in the natural resource sector in addition to addressing
governance and transparency issues at the level of each Bank operation. The ongoing support to
non-state actors on issues such as access to information, budget transparency and contract
monitoring will continue. Special attention will be given to promoting effective processes of
consultation and grievance mechanisms. The Bank will also continue its ongoing engagement with
the Open Government Partnership of which Liberia is a member, and support country level
engagement.
113. Donor fatigue will be a risk in the medium term, although low to moderate, given the
strong international political support enjoyed by the current president. In the short and
medium term, Liberia’s reconstruction and political stability will continue to depend on significant
donor engagement, especially given the limited fiscal space and the enormous costs associated with
energy and transport investments. This risk involves two factors; the first concerns the uncertainties
of the global economy and the ability of development partner’s to maintain current levels of
financial support. The second relates to the expectations of development partners with respect to the
GoL’s capacity to address major issues, many of which are related to fragility: land use, governance,
extreme centralization, and transparency and efficiency in the use of natural resources. Although
the merger of the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development with the Ministry of Finance
has created additional complexity to donor coordination, the establishment of the LDA signals the
Government’s ownership of its development program and its intent to strengthen the collaboration
with development partners and private sector. This will involve increased efforts in mobilizing
donor funding to finance the ambitious AfT. The Bank will continue to play an active role in
promoting government ownership and harmonization among development partners in addition to
providing support to the GoL in organizing donor conferences or reaching out to potential donors to
replenish the LRTF.
38 CPS Annexes
ANNEX 1: LIBERIA CPS (FY 13-17) RESULTS FRAMEWORK
Country
Issues and
CPS Outcomes3
1
Development Goals
Obstacles2
Pillar I- Economic Transformation (aligned with the AfT Pillar II)
Energy: Make affordable
electricity available to
industry, MSMEs and
households in urban areas and
improve access to alternate
generation methods
elsewhere.
Entire infrastructure for
generation and
distribution of electricity
destroyed and limited
access to the population.
The customer base is
limited with only 1.6
percent connected
nationwide. The high cost
of electricity poses a
major hurdle to the
expansion of electricity
service. Tariffs in Liberia
are among the highest in
the world and the highest
in Sub-Saharan Africa at
above US$ 0.50 per/kWh,
since s fuel cost represents
> 80% of total cost of
electricity.
1.
Increased access to reliable
and affordable energy.
1.
People in urban and rural
areas provided with access to
electricity (by number of
connections)
Baseline: 14,270
Target: 50,000
Data source: LEC data system
2. Cost of electricity
Baseline: 0.55 USD/KWH
Target: 0.41 USD KWH
Data source: LEC bills to
customers
Milestones4
Bank Program and Development
Partners5

Ongoing activities:
Electricity System Enhancement Project (LESEP)
(P120660), West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)
(P113266)
Connections to electricity grid in
Monrovia (number)
Baseline: 5,158
Target: 16,000
Data source: LEC data System

Transformers and auxiliary services
supplied (number)
Baseline: 0
Target: 375
Data source: LEC data system

Lightning Africa approved solar
lanterns in use (number)
Baseline: 0
Target: 20,000
Data source: RREA data system
3.
System Average Interruption
Frequency Index (SAIFI) for
customers in Monrovia
(Number/month)6
Baseline: 20
Target: 15
Data source: LEC data system

SREP strategy and investment plan
for rural energy submitted to the
Cabinet(Yes/No)
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: RREA data system
Trust Funds:
GPOBA(P110723)
GEF: Lighting Africa (P124014)
AFREA - Catalyzing New and Renewable Energy
In Rural Liberia (P118460)
AAA:
Managing the Oil Era (P132531), Liberia Energy
Policy Economic and Sector Work (P118478),
Energy Sector TA (P133196)
Planned activities:
Electricity System Accelerated Expansion Project
(LACEEP) (P133445), with AF for FY 16
Poverty Reduction Support Credit (P127317),
Renewable Energy Program (SREP)(P143092)
IFC: AS/IS Power to Mines (P2M)
Development partners:
Norway, KfW, ADB, EU, Japan, EIB, Arab
1
2
3
4
5
6
Longer-term or higher-order development objectives, i.e. PRS objectives, and identified in the Agenda for Transformation. Usually not achievable in the CPS period nor solely addressed by the CPS program. Only
those to which CPS outcomes will contribute are included. In the AfT Main Document defined as the Sector Goals. .
Critical issues and obstacles to achieving country development goals, providing the logical link to CPS outcomes. These are taken from AfT Main Document.
Country results deemed achievable in the CPS period and which the Bank expects to influence through its interventions. Indicators of each outcome are included, with baselines and targets and data sources.
Sector-specific indicators for CPS outcomes related to capacity development and gender are listed in the relevant sectors. Baselines are dated 2012 and targets are for the end of the CPS period.
Progress markers of CPS implementation; outputs, actions, or outcomes expected to be realized during CPS implementation.
Ongoing and planned lending, grants, and guarantees; analytical and advisory activities. Includes IBRD, IDA, IFC, and MIGA. Partners included if co-financing or other support of same CPS outcome. The System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) is commonly used as a reliable indicator by electric power utilities. SAIFI is the average number of interruptions that a customer would experience and
it measure service quality. 39 Development Bank
Transport: Ensure that
Liberians nationwide have
reliable, safe, affordable and
efficient transport services
through a guiding framework
and strategic policy and
infrastructure investment.
Institutional and
managerial capacity in the
road sector is limited.
Roads and bridges are
domestic arteries for
delivery of public services
and nearly all economic
activity. Road network
condition is quite patchy;
many key routes alternate
between sections in good,
fair, and poor condition,
which adversely affects
national connectivity.
Most road rehabilitation is
based on gravel and with
the country’s six months
copious rainy season,
that network has been
almost impossible to
maintain sufficiently.
Transport costs remain
high, averaging $.20 per
ton kilometer, due to poor
road conditions and at
times unusable bridges.
2. Increased access to reliable
transportation services

Roads rehabilitated or maintained
(km)9
Baseline: 0
Target: 309
Data source: IIU/ monthly progress
reports by independent monitoring
consultant
1.
Share of rural population
with access to an all season
road (%)7
Baseline: 5
Target: 10
Data source: IIU (based on all
seasons roads against map of
human settlements)

Rate of completion of MonroviaGuinea corridor (%)
Baseline: 0
Target: 50
Data source: technical audit and project
progress reports
2.
Roads in good and fair
condition as a share of total
classified roads (%) 8
Baseline: 15
Target: 35
Data source: annual survey by
IIU/MPW
Ongoing activities:
Road Asset Management Project (LIBRAMP)
(P125574),
Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation
Project (URIRP) (P113099), Agriculture &
Infrastructure Development Project (AIDP)
(P104716)
Trust Funds:
Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund (LRTF)
(P110272)
AAA:
Multi-modal transport study
Updated DTIS

Unsafe bridges replaced/
rehabilitated
Baseline: 0
Target: 11
Data source: IIU/monthly progress
reports from independent monitoring
consultant
3.
Travel time along major
corridors:
Baseline: Monrovia to Guinea
border – 12, Monrovia to
Buchanan – 5 hours
Target: Monrovia to Guinea -6
hours, Monrovia to Buchanan - 3
hours
Data source: travel survey

Road Authority established(Yes/No)
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: review of legal documents
that establish Road Authority
Planned activities:
South-East Corridor (Ganta-Zwedru),
Additional Financing URIRP
Transport Sector PER
IFC: AS/NIC leasing program to identify potential
Investors in water transportation
Development Partners:
EU, Sweden, ADB, KfW, Irish Aid, Norway, GIZ,
Japan, Kuwait Fund
Capacity-development/gender
4.
Share of qualified national
staff in key competency areas
at central level in the
transport sector (% )
Baseline: 10
Target: 75
Data source: IIU self- assessment
assisted by the Bank
7
This indicator is measured as the proportion of rural people who live within 2 kilometers (typically equivalent to a 20-minute walk) of an all-season road. This indicator is also known as Rural Access Index (RAI).
This indicator measures the percentage of the total classified road network that is in good and fair condition depending on the road surface and the level of roughness.
9
This includes targets for rehabilitation of primary rural roads of 301km and non-rural roads of 8 km and road maintenance of 249 km of rehabilitated sections. 8
40 ICT: facilitate universal
access, transparency, and
reliable, low-cost postal,
telecom & ICT services
nationwide.
Agriculture: To promote
competitive, sustainable and
modern agriculture and
fisheries to contribute to job
creation and poverty
reduction
The absence of broadband
access compels ISPs to
provide limited and poor
quality services at high
cost via satellite link. The
submarine fiber-optic
cable around West Africa
has reached Liberia,
making for a huge
potential improvement in
service but this potential
remains limited in the
absence of a fully
functioning fiber optic
backbone infrastructure in
the country.
Gap of access to
technology, information
on modern methods and
mechanization, as well as
finance and infrastructure
to purchase equipment
and for processing crops
(i.e. storage, processing,
transporting, etc.) between
large and smallholder
farmers limits agriculture
productivity and food
security in counties.
Old age and low
productivity characterizes
tree crop plantations,
3.
Increased access to
telecommunications services
1.
Access to Internet Services
(number of subscribers per
100 people)
Baseline: 1.7
Target: 3
Data source: Liberia
Telecommunications Authority list
of customers against estimate of
total population
2.
Volume of available
international capacity:
International
Communications (Internet,
Telecoms, and Data)
bandwidth (Gbit/s)
Baseline: 0.07
Target: 1.12
Data source: Liberia
Telecommunications Authority
records
4. Improved management and
productivity in agriculture,
forestry and fisheries
1.
Area under new technologies
by WAAPP (ha)10
Baseline: 0
Target: 72,000
Data source: Annual survey by
WAAPP Secretariat
2.
Area of smallholder
tree crop11 farms
rehabilitated,
replanted or planted under
STCRSP (ha):

Retail price of internet services (per
Mbit/s per Month)(USD)
Baseline: 1,500
Target: <800
Data source: Liberia
Telecommunications Authority estimate
of retail price nation-wide
Ongoing activities:
West Africa Regional Communications
Infrastructure Project (WARCIP-P 116273)

Feasibility Study, including
financial management on internet
backbone infrastructure, submitted
to the Cabinet(Yes/No)
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: Liberia
Telecommunications Authority
Planned Activities:

Ongoing activities:
Agriculture & Infrastructure Development Project
(AIDP) (P104716), Smallholder Tree Crop
Revitalization Support Project (STCRSP)
(P113273),
West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program APL
(WAAPP-1C) (P122065), West Africa
Regional Fisheries Program (P106063)
Foundation seeds produced through
WAAPP support (t)
Baseline: 0
Target: 200
Data source: annual reports by Africa
Rice and the International Institute of
Tropical Agriculture (IITA) based on
survey data from the Liberia Central
Agricultural Research Institute (CARI)

Long term credit13 delivered to oil
palm and rubber out-growers under
STCRSP (USD)
Baseline: 0
Target: 100,000
Data source: Contracted concessionaires
reports
10
New technologies could amongst others be improved genetic material, new methods in use of fertilizer use and new techniques in irrigation.
Tree crops include: palm oil, rubber, coffee and cocoa.
13
Credit delivered as in-kind through concessionaires 11
41 AAA:
Back bone feasibility study
IFC: Potential Co-Investment for national
backbone with the telecom company
Development Partners:
USAID
Trust Funds
Food Price Crisis Response (P112083)(under
AIDP)
Support to Development of Small Forest Enterprises
– Income Generation to Youth in Africa (CHYAO)
(under EXPAN) (TF099452)
particularly on
smallholder farms. A
large proportion of rubber
and oil palm plantations
are now at the end of their
productive life,
necessitating replanting.
Baseline: 0
Target: Rehabilitation 3,700,
Replanting 1,250 New Planting
850
Data source: STCRSP Contracted
concessionaires and service
providers reports
High importation of
fishery product with low
nutritious outcomes.
3.

Patrol days at sea per year in
targeted fisheries
Baseline: 0
Target: 60
Data source: monthly reports from
Bureau for National Fisheries
Total annual net economic
benefits from targeted
fisheries (USD)
Baseline: 3.9 M USD
Target: 8 M USD
Data source: Economic model
based on fish landings, effort and
price data from the Bureau of
National Fisheries

Quantitative analysis of land use in
forested and mixed agricultural
lands prepared and validated by the
National Climate Change Steering
Committee (NCCSC) (yes/no)
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: Report from validation
workshop
Capacity-development/gender
AAA:
Sustainable Livelihoods Approach to Define Land
Tenure Priorities in Post-Conflict Liberia
(P103693),
Policy Notes (P133196)
Planned Activities:
AF for Regional Fisheries Program in partnership
with IFC
Programmatic AAA – Natural Resource
Management
Agriculture Sector “Landscape” Diagnostic Study
IFC: AS/IS Co-investing with existing plantations
to strengthen the capacity of small-holders
Development Partners:
FAO, WFP, USAID, IFAD, SIDA, ADB, GIZ
4.
Cocoa Farmers
Organizations (FOs)
strengthened (number12)
Baseline: 0
Target: 43
Data source: Report of service
providers/CAO supervision reports
5.
Fishing vessels observed by
aerial/surface patrol or by
radar and satellite monitoring
that are committing a serious
infraction in targeted fisheries
(%)
Baseline: 45
Target: 33
Data source: monthly reports form
Bureau for National Fisheries
6.
National REDD+ strategy is
prepared and validated by
national stakeholders (yes/no)
Baseline: No
12
Main areas of strengthening are: cocoa & coffee rehabilitation technologies, post-harvest handling, bulking, storage, collateral management, marketing, negotiation skills, accounting and financial management
42 Target: Yes
Data source: Report from
validation workshop
Private Sector
Development: Transforming
the economy to meet the
demands of Liberians through
the development of the
domestic private sector.
A large proportion of
businesses in Liberia
operate in the informal
sector (which restrict their
ability to grow as they are
unable to enforce their
legal rights or have access
to legal protections), and
are also restricted in the
type of financing and
other goods and services,
both public and private,
they are able to access.
The costs of accessing
financing for micro and
small businesses are high,
and the reach and quality
of financial services
inadequate.
Small business owners are
often not financially
literate.
Small businesses lack the
resources (e.g. training) to
access goods and business
services which would
improve their
competitiveness and
productive capacities
The cost and risk of
domestic and foreign
investment is high due to
5.
Improved enabling
environment and increased
access to finance for
Liberian SMEs
1.
Domestic for-profit businesses
registered on the Ministry of
Commerce’s Liberian
Business Registry (excluding
NGOs, branches/ subsidiaries,
foreign corporations and
foundations) (% of which are
owned by women)
Baseline: 6,171 (32%)
Target: 8,000 (32%)
Data Source: MoCI, Liberian
Business Registry, analysis
conducted by Building Markets’
Sustainable Marketplace Initiative.
Total commercial bank loans
given to firms (USD)(% of
which are given to women)
Baseline: 216 million14 15
Target: 500 million (25%)
Data source: Central Bank of
Liberia quarterly and annual
reports

Procedures to comply with business
regulation related to business
entry16
Baseline: 5
Target: 2
Data Source:
http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/
exploreeconomies/liberia/starting-abusiness

Days it on average takes to comply
with business regulations related to
business entry (number)
Baseline: 6
Target: 4
Data Source:
http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/
exploreeconomies/liberia/starting-abusiness
2.
3.
Amount invested within 3
years of completion of IFC
investment climate reform
project by local and
international firms
Baseline: 71 million

Entities receiving advisory services
on commercial court and alternative
dispute resolution.
Baseline: 0
Target: 4 (judiciary, bar association,
private-sector organizations, general
public)
Data Source: IFC records on advisory
services provided

Ongoing activities:
AAA:
Financial Sector NLTA (P129028), Private Sector
Strategy & Dialogue (P131782),
Capital Market Strategy and Regulation (P125294),
Non-bank financial institutions regulation and
supervision Framework (P126368), Public
expenditure review (P127135), Policy Notes
(P133196), Diagnostic & Trade Industry States
Update (P133205)
IFC: AS insolvency courts and debt recovery,
Finance leasing, SME development and linkages,
Business Regulations (Support for Business
Registry, Doing Business Advisory, Inspections,
Legal Framework for SEZ)
Planned Activities:
Poverty Reduction Support Credit I (P127317)
Joint (with IFC) Programmatic AAA in Private
Sector Development
Development Partners:
ADB, Sweden, USAID, EU, Germany, WFP, FAO,
UNDP
Entrepreneurs that receive training
under IFC SME development
project ( number of women)
14
15
November 2011 figure, based on exchange rate of L$71/1US$)
Baseline will be established by SME Banking Diagnostic Study. Target is a minimum requirement 16
This refers to the number of procedures to incorporate and register a new commercial and industrial firm in Liberia with up to 50 employees and start-up capital of 10 times the economy's per-capita gross national
income.
43 land ownership issues
(including security of
tenure, and enforceability
of leases)
Baseline: 843 (416)
Target: 2,800 (840)
Data Source: IFC records of number of
participants in consultative workshops,
training events, seminars and conferences
under IFC SME development project
Target: 91 million
Data Source: NIC records
Cost of trading across the
borders is high because of
administrative hassle and
regulation
Pillar II: Human Development (aligned with the AfT Pillar III)
Education: Assure equitable
access to free basic
education
Primary school enrolment,
performance and reading
outcomes are low,
especially among
disadvantaged
communities.
Incentives for new
students to engage in
learning are often low
given the weak
environment for learning
in schools.
Weak management at the
central and school levels,
lack of nearby schools,
inadequate number of
qualified teachers, weak
curriculum, and shortage
of core textbooks have
hampered the quality of
secondary education and
contributed negatively to
the progression of
secondary school students,
especially girls.
6.

Improved conditions for
learning and management
capacity in basic education
1.
Children attending primary
school in ‘improved’ facilities
as defined by technical
assessment17 (number)
Baseline: 4,590
Target: 8,910
Data source: technical assessment
3 months after completion of
construction work
Capacity-development/gender
Procurement of textbooks and
teacher guides for grades 5-9
verified by September 2013 under
GPE_BEP (%)
Baseline: 0
Target: 85
Data source: County Education Offices
warehouse reports

Schools constructed according to
standardized school construction
guidelines under GPE_BEP (%)
Baseline: 0
Target:
35
Data source: Division of Education
Facilities verification reports
2.
Grade 1-9 students benefitting
from school grant, learning
materials, supplementary
readers under GPE_BEP
X number, of which are
female (%)
Baseline: 0 (0%)
Target: 591,000 (44%)
Data source: Project supervision
report on deliveries of learning
environment improvements
Trust Funds:
Global Partnership for Education Grant for Basic
Education (GPE_BEP) (P117662),
Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and
Young Women in Liberia (P110571),
IDF- Adolescent Girls Unit, Ministry of Gender and
Development IDF (P130797)
AAA:
Identifying the links between exclusion and youth
violence in Liberia and Sierra L (P125926),
Enhancing Economic and Social Resilience among
Liberia’s Lost Generation of Youth (P129514),
Higher Education Diagnostics & Strategy
(P132414), Policy Notes (P133196)
Planned Activities:
Poverty Reduction Support Credit 1(P127317)
HD Programmatic AAA Skills for Jobs
Poverty Assessment
IFC: AS for Education for Employment (E4E) and
vocational training
3.
Schools single signatories to
own bank account (number)
Baseline: 0
Target: 2,500
Data source: NGOs school
Development Partners:
USAID, UNICEF, Open Society Foundations,
17
Ongoing activities:
Community Empowerment Project II
(CEPSII)(P105683),
Youth, Employment, Skills Project (P121686),
‘Improved’ is intended as schools that (i) function during the rainy season, (ii) have access to water and sanitation facilities, and (iii) are furnished. 44 European Union
surveillance reports
Health: Increase access and
utilization of quality health
services and deliver them
closer to communities.
-Inadequately skilled
health workers
-Low skilled-birthattendants to population
ratio
-Limited access to health
facilities by some
population
-Weak referral system
-Low coverage with
preventive interventions
-Low quality of care and
poor client responsiveness
to available services
Social protection: Develop
and implement policies and
operational systems to protect
the most vulnerable groups;
increase
employment
readiness especially for youth

7. Improved capacity of health
service delivery in selected
secondary-level health facilities
Capacity-development/gender
1.
Knowledge score of medical
residency students according
to key curriculum benchmarks
by HSSP
Baseline: 60
Target: 75
Data source: Knowledge test/
tracer vignettes
Poor quality and limited . 8. Improved protection of poor
access to essential social
and vulnerable households
services at the national
and county level and high
rates
of
vulnerable Capacity-development/gender
employment
1. Number of work days created
Limited technical and
under YES (number)
vocational
training
(disaggregated by gender,
opportunities to prepare
youth)18
youth for employment
Baseline: 1.12 million (50%
women, 65% youth)
Target: 1.8 million (50% women,
75% youth)
18
In CPS period, the transport sector projects will generate 987,000 person-days of employment.
45 Maternal, and child death audits
carried out routinely by target PBF
hospitals according to national
guidelines
Baseline: 0
Target: 10
Data Source: Quality checklist/ death
audit reports
Ongoing Activities:

In-Service Training sessions in
Obstetrics, Pediatrics, Surgery,
Internal medicine carried out on a
quarterly basis in project target
facilities
Baseline: 0
Target: 42
Data source: Reporting invoices for
Quantity indicators by the Graduate
Medical Residency Program Council
Planned Activities:
Health Systems Strengthening Project
(HSSP)(P128909),
Poverty Reduction Support Credit I(P127317)

Ongoing Activities:
Community Empowerment Project II
(CEPSII)(P105683), Youth, Employment, Skills
Project YES)(P121686)
Persons trained in basic life skills
under YES (number) (disaggregated
by gender, youth)
Baseline: 28,000 (50% women, 65%
youth)
Target: 45,000 (50% women, 75% youth)
Data source: project reports on training
AAA:
Health Financing (P128825),
Enhancing Economic and Social Resilience among
Liberia’s Lost Generation of Youth (P129514),
Identifying the links between exclusion and youth
violence in Liberia and Sierra Leone (P125926)
Development Partners:
USAID, UNICEF, DfID, WHO, EU
Trust Funds:
Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and
Young Women (EPAG)(P110571)
AAA:
National Youth Employment Program (P143532)
Planned Activities:
JSDF Youth and Community Empowerment
Data source: project reports on
public works number of working
days
Project,
Youth and Skills Project
SPF/ Korean TF/ Nordic TF Strategic Program,
HD Programmatic AAA Skills for Jobs
Poverty Assessment
IFC: AS for Education for Employment (E4E) and
vocational training.
Development Partners:
UNICEF, WFP, EU, SIDA, USAID
Pillar III - Governance and Public Institutions (aligned with the AfT Pillar IV)
Public Financial
Management including
Procurement: Strengthen
public institutions to ensure
that revenues and government
assets are well managed, free
from corruption and
monitored
Concerns about weak . 9. Improved public financial
processes and systems to management
manage revenues, lack of
comprehensiveness
in
budgeting and expenditure Capacity-development/gender
management,
weak
procurement
practices, 1. Extent of unreported
granting
concessions,
government operations (PEFA
combined with ineffective
PI-7 Score)
processes for control of Baseline: D+
corruption and limited Target: B
transparency, oversight, Data source: PEFA assessment
and management capacity report
in the government and
private sector.
2. Scope, nature and follow-up
.
of external audits – PEFA PI26 (PEFA Score)
Baseline: D+
Target:
C+
Data source: PEFA assessment
report
46 
Timeliness of submission of audit
reports to legislature.
Baseline: C
Target: C+
Data source: PEFA assessment report

Annual technical audits of largescale mining operations conducted
by MLME and BOC (Yes/No)
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: xx

Ongoing Activities:
Economic Governance & Institutional Reform
Project (EGIRP) (P107248), Integrated Public
Financial Management Reform Project (P127319),
Trust Funds:
Strengthening Accountancy Program at the
University of Liberia IDF (P126907), The Liberian
Institute of Certified Public Accountants IDF
(LICPA)(P119435), PFM Strengthening & Reform
Coordination IDF (P123361), Liberia Reform Plan
(P130095),
PAC Capacity Building Project (P127678 )
Qualified financial management and
procurement specialists graduated
from intensive training working in
Government service
Baseline: 95
Target: 25319
Data source: reports from training
institutions against CSA payroll
AAA:
Customs Assessment Trade Toolkit,
Policy Notes (P133196)

Development Partners:
IMF, EU, ADB, USAID, SIDA, UNDP
Annual IPSAS-compliant financial
statements of government submitted
Planned Activities:
Poverty Reduction Support Credit 1(P127317)
(P123196),
Public Sector Modernization Project (P 143604)
to audit within 3 months of the end
of the fiscal year.
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: MoF/GAC annual report
Land administration:
Develop comprehensive
national land tenure and land
use system that will provide
equitable access to land and
security of tenure so as to
facilitate inclusive, sustained
growth and development,
ensure peace and security and
provide sustainable
management of the
environment.
Record and management
system at the national and
local levels not functional
and thus available to
verify claims and expedite
land transactions.
10. Improve land administration
Capacity-development
1. Deed registry completion (%)
Baseline: 0
Target: 80
Data source: National Archives
records against estimate of total
deeds provided by field surveys

Deeds digitized and filed in
National Archives (number)
Baseline: 0
Target: 50,000
Data source: National Archives records

National Land Policy prepared in a
consultative manner and submitted
to the Cabinet (Yes/No)
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: Land Commission

Land Agency established (Yes/No)
Baseline: No
Target: Yes
Data source: Draft policy document,
reports of consultations and confirmation
of submission to Cabinet
Ongoing Activities:
Reengagement and Reform Support Program
(RRSP4)( P123196)
Trust Funds:
Rehabilitation and Reform of Land Rights and
Related Land Matters SPF (P117010),
AAA:
Land Governance Assessment Framework
(P143348), Justice and Natural Resources
(P144406)
Planned Activities :
Land Administration Project
Poverty Reduction Support Credit I(P127317)
SPF/ Korean TF/ Nordic TF Strategic Program,
Programmatic AAA – Natural Resource
Management
Development Partners :
USAID, UN Habitat, SIDA
47 ANNEX 2: LIBERIA JCAS FY 09-12 COMPLETION REPORT
INTRODUCTION
This report assesses the World Bank Group’s Joint Country Assistance Strategy (JCAS) over the period
FY09 – FY121. Four main topics are covered: i) a review of Government of Liberia’s (GoL) progress
towards achieving its country goals as defined in its first full Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS-I: mid2008 to end 2011); ii) a self–evaluation of the of Bank-group supported program, which was aligned
with the PRS-1, iii) an assessment of the performance of the World Bank in designing and delivering the
JCAS program; and iv) a summary of key lessons and recommendations which will inform the design of
the new five year Country Partnership Strategy (JCPS) for FY13 - FY17.
SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS
1. Progress toward Country Objectives: PRS 1 was designed during a critical period of post conflict
recuperation, during which the GoL faced multi-faceted implementation challenges, including severe
capacity constraints and the external shocks of the global fuel and food price crises. Notwithstanding
these challenges, a recent independent evaluation of the PRSI highlighted a mix of outcomes, mostly
positive, especially in terms of tangible deliverables and lessons learned.
2. Progress towards expected CAS results: The contribution of the World Bank Group’s program
with respect to expected results is rated as moderately satisfactory given that good progress was noted in
most outcomes outlined in the JCAS. Of the 12 outcomes, 5 (or 42 percent) have been achieved and 7 (or
58 percent) have been partially achieved. The assessment of these 12 outcomes was measured by 27
outcomes indicators, as follows: 12 (or 44 percent) have been achieved; 12 (or 44 percent) have been
partially achieved; and 3 (or 12 percent) were not achieved. The assessment highlights specific examples
of good progress and the reasons for shortfalls, largely due to severe capacity constraints at all levels in
government in addition to inadequate project design and implementation support.
3. WBG Performance: The Bank’s performance is rated as moderately satisfactory; the WBG
delivered a stronger than anticipated non-lending and grant/lending program in response to Government’s
request for additional operations to confront the ongoing complexities of post conflict recuperation. The
design and implementation of the program demonstrated substantial success in not only contributing
towards the achievement of the 12 JCAS outcomes, but also in the delivery of quality analytical work and
technical assistance combined with strong portfolio performance. This progress reflected the dedication
and effectiveness of the Bank Country Team working in close partnership with its Government and other
counterparts to strengthen country dialogue and aid coordination. The detailed assessment also highlights
some shortcomings which hampered, in some cases, the delivery of key activities planned for the JCAS
period.
1
The Joint CAS for FY 09-11 (Report No. 47928), prepared jointly with the African Development Bank (ADB) was approved by the WB’s
Board on March 30, 2009 and was extended to include FY 12 as recommended by the CAS progress report (Report No. 59772-LR),
presented to the Board on June 2, 2011. The ADB prepared its own progress report in April, 2011, and extended its support to the end of
2012. Given different time frames, World Bank management decided that this completion report would focus on the WB-supported
program, and would be shared with the ADB and other donor partners.
48 4. Lessons learned: The self-assessment generated six key lessons and associated recommendations
which will inform the new Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), which will support the PRS II, the
Agenda for Transformation (AfT). It is hoped that these lessons learned will also contribute to improving
and strengthening WBG programming in other fragile and conflict affected countries. Those lessons
include the need to:






Adapt and apply sound post-conflict and fragile country lens and approaches in the design and
implementation of the upcoming CPS, supported by relevant expertise and governance lens:
Liberia remains a fragile state and it will be important that Bank project teams internalize and
effectively apply the relevant findings from a large number of thematic/sector studies, relevant
lessons from portfolio implementation, as well as adapting the relevant messages of the 2011
WDR on Conflict, Security and Development. Increased attention needs to be given to issues of
inclusion (geographical/ethnic), as well as youth empowerment/employment, gender, land,
capacity building and transparency.
Find the right balance between infrastructure and other key sectors, while ensuring “strategic
selectivity”. Where the Bank has provided effective support and where there is an unfinished
strategic agenda, it is reasonable for the Bank to consolidate and scale-up the approaches and
interventions to benefit underserved population groups of key services.
Ensure that capacity development is at the heart of project preparation, implementation and be
monitored are a project and portfolio level in coordination with government and other
development partners.
Ensure that the design and implementation the new CPS results matrix is driven by an outcomeoriented results framework, following the outcomes of the AfT which the CPS will align as much
as possible.
Promote sound and expedited procurement procedures, supported by effective approaches to
capacity development, implementation assistance and monitoring of procurement procedures and
activities. Proposed case studies of procurement problems in Liberia during the current JCAS
could inform the Bank’s modernization strategy as applied to conflict affected and fragile states.
Ensure strong presence, continuity, capacity and effectiveness of experienced Bank Staff in the
Liberia Office to enable the Bank to be effective in delivering the new CPS , including effective
portfolio management, implementation assistance and monitoring, especially considering the
country’s post-conflict transition and the strong commitment of GoL to key reforms.
PROGRESS TOWARD ACHIEVING COUNTRY GOALS
Country Context
5. The World Bank reengaged in Liberia in 2004 after more than a decade of conflict during which a
quarter of a million people perished and per capita GDP contracted from us$890 (1980) to us$190 (2010):
virtually all public infrastructure and services were decimated, and the external debt for a country of 3.6
million people exceeded us$4.7 billion.
6. Prior to and during the formulation and implementation of the JCAS, the country confronted a very
challenging environment, in terms of complex socio-economic and political factors, both internal and
external. Nevertheless, during the JCAS period, the GoL maintained prudent fiscal policies against the
backdrop of rising food and fuel prices and a highly dollarized economy. Liberian economy has recovered
steadily since the global economic crisis in 2008/09. The economy has stabilized—with inflation falling
back to single digit percentage and GDP growing by an average of 7.3 percent between 2006 and 2009,
49 and by nearly 7 percent in 2011, reflecting prudent management of fiscal and monetary policies and some
improvements in the external environment. A projected fiscal deficit of 1.4 percent of GDP for FY12
underscores the government’s intent to maintain prudent macroeconomic policies after reaching HIPC
completion point in June 2010. External debt now stands at about US$90 million, or about 9.5 percent of
GDP. The economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7 percent during 2012-17.
7. This growth will be dependent on a favorable external environment and increased foreign direct
investment in the natural resource-based sectors, extractive industry, agribusiness and forestry. Revenues
from the mining sector are projected to increase substantially from 2012. Notwithstanding the good
performance of the export sector, the economy will remain vulnerable to external shocks given the
volatility of commodity prices, undiversified structure of the economy, limited local private sector, and
dependence on imported foods and fuel.
8. The political situation of the country is going through a critical transition stage, and highlights the
importance of addressing adequately key underlying issues. In October of 2011, Liberia held its second
democratic election since the end of the conflict in 2003; the incumbent president was elected for a
second term. During the campaign, however, there was much discussion about the perceived weaknesses
of the government to deliver tangible improvements in living standards during the first administration.
Liberia’s social indicators remain among the poorest of the world. Unemployment, especially among
youth, is a major problem. While the Labor Force Survey of 2010 records an unemployment rate of 3.7
percent, a more relevant measure is the level of vulnerable employment which was at nearly 80percent in
2010. Many stakeholders report that corruption at all levels continues to be a pervasive problem; at the
same time, Government is endeavoring to intensify appropriate anti-corruption and governance measures.
Some of the social fragility and exclusion issues which contributed to the conflict are lingering, and GoL
needs to intensify its on-going actions to address them in constructive and tangible ways.
9. Going forward, Liberia’s medium-to-long term prospects are good, taking into account its rich
potential in natural resources/commodities, but daunting challenges remain because of the massive
amounts of financing needed to reconstruct a country’s state institutions, economy and human capital and
the need to address the historical and present drivers of conflict. The recent global crisis affected the
country’s near-term outlook, including another rise in food and fuel prices, and highlighted its economic
and social fragility, as the country endeavors to move from the transitional post-conflict recovery phase to
laying the foundations for long-term development for all Liberians.
Results of Independent Assessment of PRS I
10. Liberia launched its first full 3 year PRS entitled “LIFT LIBERIA” in July 2008 at a time when the
country confronted a very challenging environment, in terms of complex socio-economic and political
factors, both internal and external. The country had barely begun to recover from more than a decade of
conflict during which a quarter of a million people perished and per capita GDP contracted from US$890
(1980) to US$190 (2010). Virtually all public infrastructure and services had been decimated, and the
external debt for a country of 3.6 million people exceeded $4.7 billion.
11. “LIFT LIBERIA”, which was widely consulted nationally, set out the government’s priorities in four
pillars: i) Peace and Security; ii) Economic Revitalization; iii) Governance and Rule of Law and iv)
Infrastructure and Basic Services. In addition, six priority cross-cutting themes, mainstreamed through the
pillar strategies, included: gender equity, peace-building, environmental issues, HIV and AIDS, children
and youth, and monitoring & evaluation. Between mid 2008 and December, 2011, over 400 outputs (66
percent of those planned) were delivered as a result of LIFT LIBERIA according to an independent
50 evaluation commissioned by the GoL. These outputs concentrated on designing sector strategies and
legal frameworks, restoring and starting to build capacity in state institutions, and building or rebuilding
parts of war-torn infrastructure.
12. The independent evaluation highlighted some important lessons which informed the design of the
Agenda for Transformation, which in turn is the first five year plan of a longer term National Visioning
Strategy 2030 whose goal is that “Liberia become a “middle income” country by 2030 characterized by
sustainable and inclusive economic growth with improved quality of life for each citizen where the gap
between the ‘haves’ and the “have-nots” is drastically reduced”.
These lessons, which are also
relevant for the design of the WBG’s next country strategy, highlight the need to:





Align national budget allocations to the national development plan;
Strengthen the weak coordination mechanisms around donor assistance in terms of alignment and
harmonization;
Enhance the weak policy coordination (cross-sectoral) within the Government,
Re-orient the focus from processes and deliverables toward development results, while ensuring
inclusive approaches;
Strengthen and re-focus monitoring on strategic outcomes and evaluation, supported by clear
baselines, targets and results-focused indicators
DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES AND PERFORMANCE OF THE JCAS PROGRAM
Program Overview
13. The Development Objectives defined in the JCAS focused on the following three strategic themes: (i)
Rebuilding core state functions and institutions (aligned with PRS Pillar 3); (ii) Rehabilitating
infrastructure to jump-start economic growth (aligned with PRS Pillar 4); (iii) Facilitating pro-poor
growth (aligned with PRS Pillar 2). In addition, the JCAS prioritized three major cross-cutting themes:
capacity development, gender mainstreaming and environmental sustainability. A JCAS Progress Report
was presented to the Board in June, 2011; the review took stock of progress, identified key constraints,
and presented an updated results matrix for the remaining period including the one-year extension which
will allow the new 3 year JCAS and the 5 year PRS II to come into effect simultaneously in FY 13.
14. Performance of the WBG is rated Moderately Satisfactory based on good progress in the
achievement of the 12 outcomes, measured by 27 outcome indicators, which were defined in the CAS and
are reviewed below in Table 1. Each of these outcomes were linked explicitly to selected outcomes of
the PRS, and therefore, contributed to the achievement of some of the PRS outcomes and outputs cited in
the Government’s PRS final assessment report. Of the 12 outcomes: 5 (or 42 percent) have been achieved
and 7 (or 58 percent) have been partially achieved. The assessment of these 12 outcomes was measured
by 27 target outcomes indicators, as follows: 12 (44 percent) have been achieved; 12 (44 percent) have
been partially achieved; and 3 (12 precent) were not achieved. Annex 1 provides a detailed assessment of
status and self-evaluation by pillar, outcome area, outcome indicator, together with lessons and
suggestions for the WBG CPS (FY12 – FY17).
15. During the CAS period, strong performance was especially noted in:

Supporting the rehabilitation of key infrastructure, including: i) enhancing access to sanitation in
Monrovia (with a successful model which can be scaled-up to other urban areas); ii) achieving
significant progress in the initial phases of rehabilitating key segments of primary roads; iii)
51 supporting GoL’s energy sector through the delivery of a high quality energy sector options study
and the mobilization of substantial funding for priority energy investments and iv) rapidly
responding to the government’s request for a Bank-financed regional telecommunications
operation which is
financing Liberia’s share of the Africa Cable to Africa (ACE) which will connect Liberia to the
world via high speed internet by end FY12.

Providing high quality knowledge services through demand-driven, responsive and high quality
economic and sector work to address strategic issues and provide relevant advice; these included
support for the elaboration of sector strategies in energy, health, education and social protection in
addition to providing the analytical backing for the design of the AfTR and its results based
matrix.

Key interventions in development of Human Capital. An important operation during the JCAS
period was the Health Systems Reconstruction Project (HSRP). Over the course of the project, 212
health facilities were constructed, renovated and/or equipped, and 895 health workers have been
trained- exceeding the target of 300. In addition, a Bank supported a National Health Strategy and
Plan and a comprehensive Health Financing Policy and Plan (2011). These documents provided
inputs for that sector’s participation in the Agenda for Transformation.
Table 1: Liberia CAS: Overview of Program Performance:
Achievements of CAS Outcomes by Theme
Theme and Outcome
Implementation Status
(as of mid-April, 2012)
(No. of Outcome Indicators: 27) *
Theme 1: Rebuilding core state functions and institutions
Outcome 1: Improved Budget Efficiency and Revenue Administration
Outcome 2: Increased professionalization and improved HR
management of the civil service
Theme 2: Rehabilitating infrastructure to jump-start economic
growth
Outcome 3: Improved access to key transport infrastructure and services
Outcome 4: Improved access to sanitation services (in Monrovia)
Outcome 5: Improved access to reliable , sustainable and affordable
energy services
Outcome 6: Improved access to basic education
Theme 3: Facilitating pro-poor growth
Outcome 7: Improved agriculture and natural resources management to
generate pro-poor growth
Outcome 8: Enhanced forestry governance
Outcome 9: Adoption of policy framework for land tenure reform
Outcome 10: Enhanced mining governance
Outcome 11: Enhanced business and investment climate
Outcome 12: Increased access to social protection and social services in
the face of shocks
Partially Achieved (5)
Achieved (3)
Partially Achieved (2)
Partially Achieved (9)
Partially Achieved (2)
Achieved (1)
Achieved (2)
Partially Achieved (4)
Partially Achieved (13)
Partially Achieved (3)
Achieved (1)
Partially Achieved (1)
Partially Achieved (3)
Achieved (2)
Partially Achieved (3)
* See Annex 1 for the specific ratings for each of the 27 outcome target indicators (12 were achieved; 12 were partially achieved and 3 were
not achieved).
52 16. One of the principal reasons for the partial achievement of the 8 outcomes was, and remains,
severe capacity constraints in Government at all levels (managerial, technical, national and especially
local levels) in planning, implementing, supervising and monitoring policies, projects and contracts.
Capacity constraints were especially seen in procurement, and weak coordination mechanisms within
government. In retrospect, the Bank could have been more responsive to more effectively addressing
these severe capacity constraints during design and implementation, especially considering the fragile
country situation, through stronger emphasis in capacity building interventions, simplification of
procurement requirements, and added and timelier implementation assistance, with emphasis on ensuring
sufficient experienced Bank staff based in the Liberia office.
17. A second factor involves the formulation of the JCAS results matrix itself with respect to, in
some cases, unrealistic expectations of the amount of time and capacity required to make a smooth
transition toward re-establishing basic systems and procedures for managing a country-driven
development agenda with an outcome orientation, in a post-conflict and fragile country. Examples of
these include the outcomes involving: civil service reform, agricultural production and productivity and
institutional capacities, adoption of the land policy and skills development for youth. In most of these
examples, however, important groundwork has been laid and will be further addressed in the next CPS.
Highlights by Theme/Pillar
Theme 1: Rebuilding of core state functions and institutions (aligned with PRS Pillar 3)
18. Outcome 1: Improved budget efficiency and revenue administration: Achieved. While the
specific target indicators, somewhat narrowly defined, have been achieved, it is recognized that the
reforms/actions are in their early stages, but that there is political will to continue in the right direction. A
new Public Financial Management (PFM) law was approved in August 2009, budget preparation and
execution have improved steadily under the new budget management framework, and a new budget
classification system and chart of accounts introduced in line with IMF Government Finance Statistics
(GFS) and Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG). The government adopted the
international public sector accounting standards although key elements of the Standard are yet to be fully
complied with. PFM transparency is improving: quarterly expenditure reports are posted on the MOF
website and there has been a significant decrease in direct contracting in public procurement. Improved
procurement plans for five key spending ministries are contributing to improved budget execution. The
Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) has been designed, equipment procured
and the system was launched in July 2011. An internal audit strategy, designed by the government and
approved by Cabinet has been formally adopted and is now being implemented. Beginning in June, 2011,
the Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) has been gradually introduced in phases, beginning with
tax roll and tax identification numbering. Since mid-2011, there has been good progress in capturing
collected revenue in the rolling out of the ITAS (exceeding the CAS target of 50 percent, and steadily
increasing), while recognizing that further ITAS modules are being implemented during 2012, which are
expected to generate the full benefits. Once completed, the ITAS is expected to play an important role
towards enabling enhanced revenue administration and mobilization. Over time, this will contribute
toward increased financing for required public expenditures.
19. Outcome 2: Increased professionalization and improved HR management of the civil
service: Partially achieved. Most of the expected milestones in support of this overall outcome have
been achieved, and the pending ones are showing substantial progress. The overall program performance
of the Senior Executive program (SES) has been rated moderately satisfactory, based on the evidence
53 provided in the project’s ICR. There is improved operational clarity covered by the first phase of
mandates and functional reviews (MFRs) of 17 Ministries. About 75 percent of civil servants have
biometric records and this increases transparency in hiring process, payroll management and employee
identification and authentication through the Personnel Action Notice (PAN). Increased alignment of job
grades with pay levels has been achieved through introduction of the 10-grade system outlined in the pay
and employment strategy. Delay in installing the Human Resources Management Information System
(HRMIS) was due to the delay in launching the IFMIS by MOF.
20. With Bank assistance, a pension strategy has been drafted and is awaiting Cabinet
approval.
Little progress has been made toward implementation of the pay reform, establishment
controls, and in linking compensation and promotion to a performance based system, due to: low
government revenue base, inadequate capacity for performance appraisal and weak Human Resource
Management systems with the Civil Service. The Liberia Institute of Public Administration (LIPA) has
developed and initiated implementation of various training modules for public access (for a modest fee)
and for core Government specialists (e.g., training of the first batch of procurement officers in 5 highest
spending ministries was completed in 2011). As part of implementing is strategy for supporting civil
service reforms, the Bank has intensified policy dialogues, increased donor coordination, and supported
the emergence of the critical consensus needed for reforms among various constituencies within the
government.
Theme 2: Rehabilitating infrastructure to jump-start economic growth (aligned with PRS Pillar 4)
21. Outcome 3: Improved access to key transport infrastructure and services: Partially achieved:
Despite a series of implementation delays and cost overruns at the beginning of the CAS period, the Bank
has played a key role in supporting the initial phases of rehabilitating basic transport infrastructure and
establishing strengthened institutional arrangements and capacities to strengthen Liberia’s road transport
systems. This includes a draft Transport Master Plan and a draft strategic plan for establishing a proposed
Roads Authority. The major shortfall refers to the delay in constructing the Monrovia – Ganta corridor
(involving nearly 300 kms), largely due to unforeseen and protracted delays in the road planning,
procurement, and contract management processes (ref. LIBRAMP Project). Nevertheless, various roads
have been rehabilitated; including Monrovia city streets (24 kms.), Cotton tree-Bokay town (25 kms.) and
work is progressing very satisfactorily on the rest of the Buchanan corridor (83 kms.) Also, a Landlord
Port Authority was established in 2010 and GOL signed a Public and Private Partnership concession
contract with one of the world’s largest port terminal operators. The productivity targets for the port have
been exceeded their original target (8 moves /hour per crane vs. an estimated actual of 16 moves per crane
in 2011).
22. Outcome 4: Improved access to sanitation services (in Monrovia): Achieved: The Monrovia
City Corporation (MCC) managed the design and construction of two transfer stations, as well as sanitary
landfill disposal cells and now collects and disposes of about 60 percent solid waste in the city.
Accordingly, Bank assistance has provided effective capacity development to the Monrovia City
Corporation (MCC) to enable it to establish sound management and enhanced sanitation services, as well
as helping to create the policy and institutional framework for a solid municipal government. In addition,
trust funds have enabled the Bank to provide technical and policy advice in the form of a Policy Note on
Decentralization and the fiscal intergovernmental relations status of the capital city, which is provided
valuable contributions to the drafting of a new Local Government Bill.
23. Outcome 5: Improved access to reliable, sustainable and affordable energy services: Achieved.
This assessment recognizes two aspects: some key additional milestones were achieved (e.g., strategic
54 and feasibility energy sector studies, effective donor partnerships), and second, significant funding was
mobilized by the end of FY12, which is now providing a solid base for the ambitious sector programs in
the AfT. The WBG, in partnership with other donors, helped the Government re-establish the Liberia
Electricity Corporation (LEC) under the framework of an Emergency Power Program (EPP) and
facilitated the signing of a five-year contract for the management of LEC, which in turn led to a US$50
million investment package. This public-private partnership (PPP) and funding will enable delivering
electricity services to more than 30,000 new customers by 2015, including poor households, with more
affordable electricity rates and reduced theft of electricity. The Bank also supported pilot initiatives of the
Rural and Renewable Energy Association (RREA), in addition to supporting the achievement of a major
regional milestone for Liberia’s energy sector --- the approval of the West African Power Pool (WAPP)
transmission interconnection project between Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Good
progress has been made toward completing (in 2012) key studies for the Mount Coffee Hydropower Plant
rehabilitation, thereby paving the way for mobilizing finance and launching this cornerstone project and
the accompany investments in transmission and distribution. While there was a slight shortfall in meeting
the target of household electrical connections (832 vs. 1,000), there was significant progress (more than
foreseen) in mobilizing additional energy sector funding toward achieving solid outcomes.
24. Outcome 6: Improved access to basic education: Partially Achieved. Following completion of
an Education Sector Plan (2010-2020) by the Ministry of Education, with active support from the Bank, a
US$40 million grant was approved by the Education for All- Fast Track Initiative Grant for Basic
Education which is supporting targeted interventions for expanding access to basic education in rural
areas and improving the classroom learning environment. There was a lack of clear definition of outcome
targets for education in the CASPR and the shortfalls in key output targets reflect problems in initial
project design and management and planning weaknesses in the Ministry of Education. The project was
restructured in FY 13 and policy dialogue was expanded to include an in-depth discussion on post-basic
education and training reform, with a particular focus on skills development and the development of a
Higher Education Strategic Plan. It should be notes, however, that over 80 classrooms were constructed
through Bank support to the Liberia Agency for Community Empowerment.
Theme 3: Facilitating pro-poor growth (aligned with PRS Pillar 2)
25. Outcome 7: Improved agriculture and natural resources management to generate pro-poor
growth: Partially Achieved. The Government, with the support of the West Africa Regional Fisheries
Program (WARFP), has made significant progress to date in establishing a sustainable and profitable
fishing sector, with strong community-level partnerships which are helping to ensure that these benefits
are widely shared and that illegal fishing activity is monitored and controlled. Less progress was made on
the two agricultural sector indicators regarding included increased crop yields and production in key cash
and export crops, focusing on smallholder farmers. Factors included: severe capacity constraints in the
implementation at all levels; unrealistic design and targets in the Bank-financed Agricultural
Infrastructure Development Project (AIDP), and fragmented ownership of the project between two
ministries. Good progress has been made, however, with respect to strengthening the capacity of women
groups in agricultural value-chain development. The regional West Africa Agricultural Productivity
Project (WAAPP), approved in FY 11, will continue to build needed capacity in the MOA and to
contribute to enhanced rice, cassava yields and cocoa targets, despite the shortfall in meeting these targets
in the present JCAS. The recently approved Small Holder Tree Crops Project will begin to target small
farmers whose assets were decimated during the war.
26. Outcome 8: Enhanced forestry governance: Achieved: All previous forestry concessions have
been cancelled and commercial logging within the concession framework is commencing. The Bank
55 continues to support the government’s “three C’s” approach to the forestry sector (commercial,
conservation, and community forestry) with a goal to achieving accountability, transparency, security and
social responsibility. Progress has also been made in forestry governance and institutional capacity
building. The Chain of Custody, supported until December 2011 by the Bank through the PROFOR and
FLEG Trust Funds, ensures that only legally harvested logs from the forestry concessions are exported
and that respective taxes and fees are collected. Nineteen forestry concessions have been approved and
registered in the Chain of Custody. Ten community economic development sites have been established
around Protected Areas with World Bank support. Nevertheless, governance issues in the forestry sector,
including addressing broader community-based forestry concerns, continue to be a challenge as evidence
in the problems with the Private Use Permits in FY 12.
27. Outcome 9: Adoption of policy framework for land tenure reform: Partially achieved: As a
result of a Bank land policy study, completed in 2008, a high level Lands Commission was established to
address vital land policy and land administration issues, as part of a longer term agenda. Bank support
has allowed the Commission to develop the principal policies and draft laws which have informed the
design of a Policy Framework for Land Tenure Reform. The adoption and implementation of a sound
land policy is key to many sectors in the country, including enhanced private sector environment, and the
establishment of peace and security throughout the country. After the 2011 elections, there has been a
renewed urgency to adopt a clear policy framework for registration of transactions in land and providing
for greater security of tenure, particularly in areas where investment would be predicated on the award of
concessions. That framework, referred to above, is still currently being discussed at a national and
community level.
28. Outcome 10: Enhanced mining governance: Partially achieved. Liberia was the first African
country to be EITI compliant (Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative) in 2009, two years ahead of
schedule. Over the past two years, the government has used standard mineral development agreements
(MDAs) and bidding documents in line with international good practices. The Extractive Industries
Technical Advisory Facility has supported advisory services on several iron ore and related infrastructure
negotiations as well as proposed changes to the mining concessions agreement structure and negotiation
procedures. More importantly, the advisory work has provided a basis for a reform of the Mines and
Minerals Act, which is currently being launched. The Bank is reviewing the forest, mining, and petroleum
and fishery sectors to identify gaps as per the EITI and value chain approach. The World Bank Institute
(WBI) has also carried out consultations on social accountability issues and mechanisms for Liberia,
which is providing GoL further tools. The focus on mining governance also needs to be broadened to
address the concerns of the artisanal mining sector, which comprises a large portion of the rural
population.
29. Outcome 11: Improved business and investment climate: Achieved: In 2010, Liberia was
recognized as a Top Ten Global Reformer and ranked 150 out of 183 economies in 2011 on ease of doing
business, up from 170 out of 178 in 2007. A state-of-the-art Business Registry was recently launched and
allows a business to complete registration 48 hours from submission of complete documentation.
Through satellite offices in Ganta and Buchanan as well as its online portal, investors can formalize their
businesses without going to Monrovia.
IFC also provide technical expertise for the design and
implementation of a modern commercial code, which is now law; a Commercial Court was also
established; and training courses for judges, magistrates and public defenders have been provided. An
IFC-supported project is expected to significantly improve the investment climate, ensure greater
transparency and security for commercial transactions, substantially improve access to finance and inspire
greater confidence in Liberia as an investment destination. The WBI, together with the Carter Center and
the International School of Transparency of the University of Cape Town, are facilitating knowledge
56 exchanges and showcasing international good practices on “Right to Information” implementation issues
with the Liberia Parliament.
30. IFC also supported the establishment of a commercial microfinance bank—Access Bank
Liberia (ABL); ABL now has five additional branches and manages 28,000 accounts, exceeding
JCAS expectations. In addition, and in recognition of the capital constraints of Liberian SMEs, IFC
supported the launch of several initiatives including: i) the West Africa Venture Fund (“WAVF”) to
provide risk capital, ii) the Global Trade Finance Program; and iii) the expansion of their Advisory
Services Phase III Program which prioritizes the development of financial services infrastructure such as a
Credit Reference System and a Secured Transactions Registry, in order to permit the collateralization of
movable assets. IFC has also given high priority to providing capacity building for Liberia’s private
sector, as reflected by IFC’s extensive advisory services.
31. Outcome 12: Increased access to social protection and social services in the face of shocks:
Partially achieved. Bank-supported activities have contributed to building community physical and
social capital and enhanced institutional capacities for social protection of vulnerable groups. The three
indicators in the CAS matrix have been partially achieved: 1,240,000 person days of temporary
employment created (from a target of 2,480,000); 20,000 beneficiaries of community works programs
(out of a target of 45,000); and the launching of a skills development and certification programs, which
will train 1,200 of the 4,500 beneficiaries before end FY12. It should be noted that the Bank transport
team calculated jobs created by the Bank supported transport operations to be approximately 1.5 million
person days during the JCAS period. In addition, Bank support for the Liberia’s Agency for Community
Empowerment (LACE) has successfully enhanced community access to basic services and has resulted in
the institutionalization of effective participatory procedures and accountability mechanisms and is
contributing to the formation of community level social capital during a delicate post-conflict transition
period. Cash-for-work activities have been scaled-up through the Youth, Employment, and Skills (YES)
Project.
Other Important Achievements/Outcomes
32. Cross cutting issues: Capacity Development, Gender and Environment. The implementation of
the JCAS provided strategic support to these three cross-cutting themes and to other several key areas
(i.e., health and telecommunications). The assessment of their results, although not included in the JCAS
results matrix, merit highlighting.
33. Capacity Building (CB): A dual track approach (short and long term) with respect to CB
support was given throughout the portfolio. Short term measures were embedded in the project
implementation of Bank-supported projects and included provision of technical assistance (mostly
foreign, including support through the Senior Executive Service Program and the establishment of several
project management units (PMUs) servicing the implementation requirements of various ministries to
accelerate implementation and to enhance governance. Examples of where this has been effective
include: the Infrastructure Implementation Unit (IIU) which will evolve into a Roads Agency; the Project
Financial Management Unit (PFMU) of Ministry of Finance which provides FM services to several
operations covering several ministries and Monrovia Municipal Corporation whose core team has been
trained and has now set up the basic systems of a municipal government. The Bank also began to give
more priority to strengthening procurement capacity, not only in Bank supported operations, but also for
the execution of the entire national budget through technical assistance provided under the Economic
Governance and Institution Reform Project (EGIRP) and Programmatic Development Policy Operations
57 (in 2010 and 2011), as part of a priority of Bank programming in governance and transparency in FY 12
and beyond.
34. Medium to long term capacity development measures including support for the following: i)
design and implementation of a civil service reform strategy, ii) a program with the Liberia Institute of
Public Administration (LIPA) to train civil servants in various “core” areas, iii) support to the Financial
Management Training School; the graduates of these last two are then are placed in different ministries,
iv) the establishment of an independent General Auditing Commission (GAC) which has produced audits
of government accounts for the first time in twenty years and v) the establishment of a procurement
training program in FY 12.
35. In addition, World Bank Institute (WBI) capacity development activities have drawn on SouthSouth platforms for regional knowledge exchanges and access to technical know-how on four
governance-related themes: access to information, procurement and contract monitoring, particularly in
the area of extractive industries, parliamentary strengthening and social accountability. WBI also
provided very much appreciated capacity building technical assistance to the Ministry of Planning and
Economic Development, involving all Government ministries, in applying a results-focused approach to
formulating its National Capacity Development Strategy (2011) and in the preparation of the Agenda for
Transformation.
36. Gender: During the JCAS period, the Bank, with various partners, supported two pilot programs
focusing on the economic empowerment of 2,500 adolescent girls and young women, aged 16 to 27 in
Monrovia and Kakata and of 1,000 women in 10 communities in Ganta, Nimba County who involved in
the production, processing and marketing of cassava products. Lessons learned from these programs have
been reflected in the Government’s national visioning document: “Liberia Rising 2030” and its “Agenda
for Transformation”, especially with respect to inclusive development. The GoL and the Bank also
prepared a Policy Memorandum on Gender and Agricultural Value Chains with a goal to supporting
programs on gender issues in agricultural and rural development. MOA is working on the adoption and
scaling-up of the recommendations in its programs/projects involving value chain development.
Nevertheless, there is not a sense of gender mainstreaming in the CAS; having specific gender related
interventions is not a substitute for this.
37. Environmental Sustainability: Environment was highlighted explicitly as a separate theme in the
JCAS, but was not addressed in the CASPR. During the JCAS period the Bank addressed environmental
issues somewhat modestly, mainly through mainstreaming relevant activities and safeguard policies in
Bank-supported projects being implemented by key sectors/ministries, in line with Bank operational
guidelines. These included: roads and sanitation services (Ministry of Public Works); forestry concessions
(Forest Development Authority); mining concessions and governance, and energy investments (Ministry
of Lands, Mines and Energy), and modest support through the Global Environmental Facility.
WORLD BANK GROUP PERFORMANCE
38. The World Bank Group’s performance during the JCAS period is rated as moderately
satisfactory.
Thirty five active projects (ranging from US$ 20,000 to US$ 46 million with a total of
US$ 76.5 million to disburse) contributed to JCAS results. During the planning period, the Bank
successfully delivered a stronger than anticipated non-lending and grant/lending program, especially in
the infrastructure sector (i.e., roads and energy) and advisory services. The design and implementation of
the program demonstrated substantial progress in contributing towards the achievement of the twelve
58 CAS outcomes. Quality non-lending work responded very well to GoL requests, enabling Government to
solidify its macro-economic management performance, develop sector strategies and help underpin the
design of the National Vision (2030) and the AfT. The Bank also enhanced its country presence, capacity
and much needed implementation assistance with experienced sector and thematic staff, who have
contributed towards improved macro-economic, financial and public expenditure management, planning
and project execution, and improvements in the procurement processes. Moreover, a stakeholder survey,
done in mid-2011, regarding perceptions about the Bank’s role, effectiveness and impact portrayed very
positive views and suggested some useful recommendations. During the consultation meetings of the
draft CAS CR, there was consistent positive feedback provided by a wide range of stakeholders
(government, donor, and civil society) that the Bank is “a key and responsive partner”.
39. JCAS Design: IDA financing in the JCAS focused on accelerating the rehabilitation of
destroyed infrastructure, especially the transport/primary roads system. Given the huge post-war
needs, the national IDA resources were complemented with numerous Trust Funds. These were used
selectively, and in some cases, as opportunities, to help leverage existing resources and mobilize
additional funds where there were financing gaps. This also allowed the Bank to pro-actively respond to
emerging GoL priorities during implementation to support strategic lending and non-lending activities.
The roads, energy and regional telecommunications programs are good examples. Although the JCAS was
criticized by some sectors as being an “infrastructure” JCAS, other sectors were not neglected during this
period: health was supported by a new emergency operation which was approved immediately before the
JCAS period; the education sector mobilized a $40 million EFA grant as part of the Fast Track Initiative
(FTI); the agenda of social protection advanced with analytical work as well as trust and IDA funded
public employment and school feeding programs.
40. The twelve outcome areas of the JCAS, outcome indicators and milestones were generally
aligned to PRS I objectives. The indicators and milestones had a strong output orientation, reflecting the
relatively weak result-focus of the PRS I actions which the Bank was supporting through on-going and
upcoming investment projects. Given the pressure on GoL to deliver tangible improvements in its early
post-conflict stage, and capacity issues, GoL’s output focus and weak M&E system to generate outcome
data is understandable.
By the time the Bank prepared the CAS PR, there were some modest
improvements introduced to the results framework. More ambitious changes with a stronger outcome
orientation would not have been realistic given capacity issues and also given that the last year of the
JCAS was an election period, with inevitable changes in government that slowed down implementation.
41. The seven risks identified in the JCAS were appropriate and remain relevant as do the
mitigation measures, which were also confirmed in the CAS PR. Liberia remains a fragile state and a
divided country, politically and culturally, because of lingering historical and post-conflict tensions whose
root causes have not been sufficiently addressed. UNMIL will continue their gradual withdrawal of their
peacekeeping forces and put stronger emphasis on helping the national police develop an integrated
security and contingency plan. Overall, the Bank has taken a proactive role to managing the risks
identified in the JCAS, including providing additional and timely macro-advisory, budgetary support, and
food response support during the fuel, financial and food crisis. The Bank non-lending activities are
playing an important role in deepening the understanding of the complex issues and post-conflict fragility
facing Liberia.
42. JCAS Implementation: The Country Team delivery of the JCAS, in close partnership with
Government counterparts and other stakeholders, was satisfactory. The program was comprised of a
sound mix of complementary instruments, involving AAA/knowledge and advisory services, program
financing from multiple sources including modest amounts of budget support. Donor coordination
59 mechanisms have been strengthened over the JCAS period as evidenced by the new FY 12 PFM operation
which combines IDA and multi-donor trust fund, one of whose contributors is USAID. During the JCAS
period the team adapted well in response to additional requests from Government and other stakeholders
by mobilizing substantial additional resources in the form of strategic non-lending, budget support, trust
funds and investment projects. The additional supporting operations and non-lending generally were well
aligned with the PRS and original JCAS objectives and results framework, and principles of engagement,
as were the four 4 regional programs.
43. Table 2 shows the summary comparison of the original JCAS Plans funding (IDA + Trust
Funds), compared to the Actual Funds (IDA + TF) for the JCAS period (i.e., US$ 338M vs.
US$727.0 M). Several points merit highlighting: the largest share of total funding was provided to
infrastructure projects; there was a substantial increase in financing support during the original three years
(25 percent increase), mostly arising from various trust funds. 2 A total of US$ 20M was provided as
budget support, which signaled to GoL and other Development Partners, the Government’s good
performance in macro-economic management and enhanced governance in PRS implementation. In
addition, the IFC program net commitments totaled US$16.4 M for the 3 year period, in addition to a
substantial program of advisory services (totaling US$ 10 M through FY14). M. Annex 2 provides further
details of the planned and actual funding, including the changes in the lending program.
Table 2: Summary of IDA and TF Funding (Planned and Actual) (US$ M)
JCAS Plans (IDA Program + Trust Funds)
Delivered (IDA + Trust Funds)
Total IDA and TF (FY09 – 11)
Total IDA and TF (FY09 -12)
298.00
338.00
FY09 – 11
FY09 – 12
496.5M
727.0M
44. Responding to the specific needs of the GOL, the Bank group also increased the amount of nonlending activities originally planned in the CAS. PREM, HD, SD, FPD, and IFC staff have completed
a number of high quality and demand-driven analytical studies and Policy Notes, and the World Bank
Institute (WBI) has provided demand-driven technical assistance. This collective work has evolved into
important vehicles for informing the government’s longer term visioning document, Liberia Rising 2030,
as well as GoL’s formulation of the AfT. This support contrasts the preparation of PRS I, where the Bank
was much less involved. Key findings of the Bank’s and other strategic studies (see below) were
presented in a national Economic Forum last September, which are helping to underpin the design of the
PRS 2, which is expected to be launched in July 2012. Many of these studies have comprised country case
studies and innovative methodologies which also are providing useful inputs and forward-thinking ideas
for supporting other country level studies and services (e.g., infrastructure investment options; growth
diagnostics; social fragility; land tenure). Also, in FY 12 the Bank team finished an updated Poverty
Assessment and a social-sector Public Expenditure Review. The above analytical and advisory services
are consistent with one of the core components of the WB’s Africa Region Strategy (Africa’s Future and
the WB’s Support to It, 2011). See Annex 3 for further details.
45. Portfolio Performance: Performance of the Bank portfolio is rated as satisfactory. Annex 4
highlights some key portfolio indicators during the JCAS period, which show a generally favorable and
consistent performance and trends. Annex 5 lists the WB-supported portfolio of projects at the beginning
2
Trust Funds have been and will continue to be a very important source of program financing for the rest of the CAS period and beyond. At
present, the Liberia Country Program has a large portfolio of approximately 56 trust funds, including the Liberia Reconstruction Trust
Fund (LRTF); it is a Bank-administered multi-donor trust fund which has signed pledges to date for about US$171 million and has thus
far in the CAS period committed US$145 million.
60 of the JCAS period, with commitments totaling US$161 M (and an undisbursed balance of US$76.5 M).
They also made important contributions to the development goals and outcomes of the JCAS; although
they were not highlighted in the CASPR (Annex 1 provides some selected details). As of end March,
2012, there were 8 national IDA projects with a total net commitment of US$ 250.7 million, of which
US$ 154.0 million is undisbursed. In addition, there are 3 active regional projects (Telecommunication,
Agricultural Productivity and Fisheries) with a total net commitment of US$ 45.6 M of which US$ 26 M
remains undisbursed. Two other projects were approved in FY 12, the Small Holder Tree Crops and the
West Africa Power Pool; both were not effective as of the end of the extended CAS period.
46. Disbursements have been healthy during the JCAS period, and above the average for the Africa
region. At the end of March 2012, the IDA portfolio has no problem projects, net commitments at
risk or over-age projects. There are several projects which show marginal satisfactory ratings. The
development objective ratings (DO) show 80 percent of projects as rated satisfactory and 20 percent as
marginally satisfactory. Implementation performance ratings (IP) show 46 percent of projects rated
satisfactory and the remainder 54 percent as marginally satisfactory. The slightly better than average
performance for the Africa Region is attributed largely to a combination of factors: satisfactory design of
projects; reliance on PMUs and technical assistance (mostly foreign); effective and efficient supervision
and implementation assistance by task teams; an increased number of experienced Bank staff posted in
the Monrovia office as of late FY 11; and a positive and effective working relationships with Government
counterparts.
47. Three country portfolio performance reviews (CPPRs) were carried out: February, 2010 (the
first since the end of the war); June, 2011; and April 2012. The agenda, content and emerging action
plans addressed strategic issues at portfolio and project levels, and were well participated and received by
GoL counterparts. Major portfolio issues have been related to weaknesses in Ministry/agency capacity,
poor but steadily improving performance in procurement, contract and financial management, and
monitoring and evaluation systems. Two of the CPPRs were also major capacity development (CD)
events, including a four day training course on M&E (2010) by AFTDE and a one day workshop on CD
(2011) by WBI. The overarching theme for the 2012 CPPR was to update and intensify strategies and
project and portfolio-level priority actions which would enhance results-focused performance. There is
also agreement to strengthen systematic follow-up, in close collaboration with MOF’s Aid Management
Unit team, focusing on the above mentioned cross-cutting issues. While there were delays in the
completion and dissemination of the final CPPR reports (2010 and 2011), each project team did have their
agreed action plans arising from both exercises and key actions have been tracked in each mission aide
memoire. Issues of effectiveness delays have arisen as of FY 12 given that the Liberian parliament now
has to ratify Bank credits due to the fact that the Bank’s post HIPC portfolio now is 100 percent credit.
48. The major complaint by several GoL officials is their perception that the Bank is “slow” in its
procurement processing due to cumbersome and complex procurement review and oversight
procedures. Since 2011, the Bank has introduced a procurement tracking system, and is endeavoring to
simplify and expedite its procurement review processes in line with the Bank’s fragile country
considerations (without compromising key fiduciary standards), as well as to provide increased
procurement implementation assistance. At the beginning of the CAS period, there was the equivalent of
1 procurement staff member available to support the procurement reviews; by mid-2011, the Bank has
increased its procurement capacity to 2.5 procurement experts to support the large and growing
procurement requirements and to ensure that this added support translates into more timely procurement
reviews, tracking, and implementation assistance to executing agencies. The Bank’s expanded and nearby
country presence needs to be continued and effectively utilized with available instruments and staff,
including systematic and timely follow-up on agreed actions (following CPPRs, mid-term reviews, and
61 supervision missions). Care also needs to be taken by the Bank in frequent changes of TTLs (e.g., the
transport TTL was changed 3 times in the space of 1 year).
49. In mid-2011, the Board approved a comprehensive CAS Progress Report. The revised results
framework continued to focus on SMART outcome and output indicators and key milestones, and also
reflected relevant changes in the portfolio. Generally, the CAS PR revised upwards targets for indicators
and milestones, except in the agricultural sector, given its project delays and capacity constraints.
Nevertheless, the CASPR did not anticipate the extent of pre- and post-election slow-down in the
government, which, together with capacity constraints, continued to affect portfolio performance to a
certain degree.
50. Donor Coordination/Partnership: The Bank has played an important role in promoting donor
coordination in Liberia over the present JCAS period. At the sector level, the Bank has taken an active
role in various sector working groups, especially agriculture, education, energy and public financial
management (PFM), and in transport, where the Bank administers the Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund
(LRTF). In several operations of the LRTF, the Bank is using IDA to co-finance with donors, which also
is contributing to enhanced coordination and partnership in line with the Paris agenda. The Bank and
UNDP carried out joint analytical work on the security sector (early 2012), and in 2012, together worked
on a successful proposal to fund a joint M&E technical assistance initiative to strengthen GoL’s
revamped national M&E system. While the Bank prepared the CAS as a joint effort with the ADB, the
implementation and monitoring aspects of the JCAS did not involved active coordination. Recently, the
ADB has established a country office in Monrovia, and this is now enabling more active communication
and collaboration at the operational level. The CPPR of 2011 also gave attention to discussing strategies
and mechanisms for enhancing donor coordination, partnership, and effectiveness, and where the Bank
committed itself to “walking the talk”, and thereby providing a positive example to other donors.
51. Stakeholder Survey and Participation: The Bank completed an independent stakeholder survey in
2011. The overall results revealed a positive perception of the Bank’s role, priorities (re-emphasizing
rehabilitation of war-torn infrastructural investments and basic services, and also strong demand for
strengthening governance, including anti-corruption measures) and overall effectiveness. Bank
procurement procedures were again perceived to be “slow”. Stakeholders requested the Bank to expand
its involvement in a broad range of sectors/themes. This highlights the challenge of ensuring that the
WBG applies carefully the selectivity criteria for its next JCPS.
52. Relations with Civil Society: During the JCAS period, the Country Team took steps to strengthen
its partnership with diverse civil society groups, especially in the area of governance and transparency.
WBI and several NGOs are working together to improve social accountability and increase demand for
good governance in several areas: increased access to information, contract and procurement monitoring,
budget transparency, anti-corruption and third party monitoring of Bank projects through External
Implementation Status Reports. This work is still in the early stages, and is expected to be expanded
during the next CPS, as part of strengthening a challenging governance agenda.
KEY LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE NEW JCPS
53. The following section highlights six key lessons and related recommendations for the new CPS,
which arise directly from the above self-assessment. The design of the JCPS will also benefit from the
guidance from IEG’s comprehensive evaluation of the Bank’s country assistance program for Liberia,
from 2004 to 2011, completed in FY 12. Annex 1 also provides additional lessons learned and
62 recommendations according to specific themes and sectors and which have emerged from the CASCR
self-evaluation exercise. The lessons are summarized as follows:
(i) Adapt and apply a sound post-conflict and fragile country lens and approaches in the design
and implementation of the upcoming CPS, supported by relevant expertise and governance lens:
Liberia remains a fragile state and it will be important that Bank project teams internalize and effectively
apply the relevant findings from a large number of thematic/sector studies, relevant lessons from
portfolio implementation, as well as adapting the relevant messages of the 2011 WDR on Conflict,
Security and Development. For the new CPS it would be useful to develop, with the help of the Hub in
Nairobi, an operational conflict/fragility “filter” which can be applied to all on-going and proposed
activities. Increased attention needs to be given to issues of inclusion (geographical/ethnic), as well as
youth empowerment/employment, gender, land, capacity development and transparency.
(ii) In the new CPS it will be important to find the right balance between infrastructure and other
key sectors, while ensuring “strategic selectivity”. The Africa Strategy: knowledge products,
partnership and financing will again be the framework for decisions on the design on the next CPS with
special attention given to maximizing synergies within the WBG and other development partners, in
alignment with Government’s AfT. Where the Bank has provided effective support and where there is an
unfinished strategic agenda, it is reasonable for the Bank to consolidate and scale-up the approaches and
interventions to benefit underserved population groups of key services (e.g., expanded access to sanitation
in other urban areas, expanded rehabilitation of road infrastructure system, land tenure security and
administration).
(iii) Capacity development must be at the heart of project preparation, implementation and be
monitored are a project and portfolio level in coordination with government and other development
partners. The CAS design correctly identified the importance of addressing Liberia’s severe capacity
constraints in the scope, content and implementation progress of the JCAS program. Bank-supported CD
activities were based on a dual track approach, involving short and medium term measures, although
focusing on traditional supply driven approaches, with limited orientation toward measureable results.
This has included reliance on Project Management Units (PMUs), with external consultants and
differential incentives. A key lesson for the JCPS is to balance inputs for project implementation with
sound CD approaches that support actions by the government and other country actors to develop
institutional capacities in the country, and which can be measured by intermediate capacity outcomes.
Individual project CD should be more intentional in shifting increased responsibility to the Liberian
counterparts in all phases of Bank-supported activities. There is also a need to re-assess the role and
incentive structure of PMUs to promote enhanced sustainability and integration with Ministry structures
and staff.
(iv) Pursue sound approaches to the design and implementation of an outcome-oriented results
framework for the AfT and the CPS, supported by timely assistance and proactive follow up by
management and technical staff. The WBI results-focused assistance provided to the design of the AfT
helped avoid the output orientation experienced by PRS 1 and the JCAS through helping to support GoL’s
on-going efforts to formulate realistic and attainable outcome indicators and targets and to align GoL’s
new Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) with the AfT strategic objectives and outcomes,
supported by sound priority interventions. Ideally, the CPS results framework will reflect the AfT
framework in selected sectors. The Bank should also assist GoL to institutionalize results management
systems and to strengthen statistical capacity in order to strengthen government accountability and to
facilitate the adequate measurement of impact and results of activities in articulated priority areas.
63 (v) Promote sound and expedited procurement procedures, supported by effective approaches to
capacity development, implementation assistance and monitoring of procurement procedures and
activities. Case studies of procurement problems in Liberia during the JCAS could inform the Bank’s
modernization strategy as applied to conflict affected and fragile states. While the Bank reflects upon
procurement policy, it is also imperative that the CPS find more effective approaches to enhancing
procurement policies and building procurement capacity at the national and sub-national levels, including
private sector contractors, while meeting short-term fiduciary and implementation requirements (e.g.,
twinning approaches. It is also important to strengthen the procurement modules imparted by the Liberia
Institute of Public Administration and other relevant entities, civil service reform to recognize
procurement officers as an adequately compensated career stream).
(vi) Ensure strong presence, continuity, capacity and effectiveness of experienced Bank Staff in the
Liberia Office to enable the Bank to be effective in its CPS portfolio management, implementation
assistance and monitoring, especially considering the country’s post-conflict transition and the
strong commitment of GoL to key reforms. At the beginning of the JCAS period, the Bank Group’s
Monrovia office had limited staff presence, in both technical aspects and experience. This constrained the
Bank’s and IFC’s capacity to provide timely, effective and continuous policy and technical advice and
implementation assistance and in-depth engagement with civil society in fostering their social capital and
contributions to enhanced governance. The IEG GAC report (2011) correctly recognized that engaging in
the rebuilding of post-conflict states is labor-intensive and requires experienced staff in the field. By mid
FY 11, adequate staffing was completed in the country office but it has since lost several key members
due to transfers. A related key lesson is the importance of adequate number, composition, experience and
continuity of key staff. In the case where there has been turnover of staff in a key sector (e.g.,
infrastructure portfolio), it is important to ensure institutional memory is well captured.
64 ATTACHMENT 1
LIBERIA: CAS COMPLETION REPORT
Summary of CAS Program Self-Evaluation 1
CAS Outcome and Outcome
Indicators
Status and Evaluation Summary
2
Lending and Non-Lending
Activities that Contributed to the
Outcome
Lessons and Suggestions for the
new CPS
THEME 1: REBUILDING CORE
STATE FUNCTIONS AND
INSTITUTIONS
Outcome 1:
Improved
efficiency
of
budget
preparation
and
execution
and
enhanced revenue administration
Legal Framework:
1.1 A legal framework for PFM exists
that forms the foundation for budget
management and accountability for
public finances.
Achieved.
1.1: Achieved:
(a)
GoL prepared, approved and
commenced satisfactory implementation
of the PFM Law (August 2009), including
being on track toward introducing the
Medium Term Expenditure Framework
(MTEF) for 2012/13 budget cycle.
(b) For the past two years GoL has
prepared and used a budget framework
paper which has enhanced progressively
the standard and quality of ministry-level
budget
formulation
process
and
submissions. There has been increased
alignment of the budget with the PRS
priorities (improving from 60% in FY08
to about 80% of total public expenditure
allocations in FY12). Recently, GoL has
prepared a draft MTEF, and taken steps to
align it (and component submissions by
ministries and agencies) with the strategic
Integrated Financial Management
Information System (IFMIS):
Approved in FY09
Closing Date: (extended to March 31,
2012;
Latest Ratings: DO/IP: Satisfactory
Economic Governance and Institutional
Reform (EGIRP) Project
Approved: FY08);
Closing: December 31, 2013.
Ratings: DO: MS; IP: MS
Budget Support Operations (DPOs)
(approved each year since FY08, with
consistent rating of satisfactory:
2nd Reengagement and Reform Support
Program:
Amount: US$4.0M
1.) Delays in legislative approval of the
national budget (and ratification of IDA
credits) have meant delays in effective
service delivery across government.
Consideration should be capacity building
initiatives for and increased dialogue with
the Liberian legislature, especially with
key committees such as the House Ways
and Means.
2) Given the strong commitment from the
GoL to introducing a medium-term budget
framework, there is a need to sequence
reform actions and to adopt a process that
includes a step-by-step approach, building
on achievements made with support of
donor coordinated technical assistance.
Given the generally limited capacity
within the public sector in post conflict
countries such as Liberia, it is important
to be selective in the choice of policy and
institutional reforms to be undertaken at
this particular stage in the country’s
transition. Operations that are simple in
design and have fewer manageable actions
are likely to be more effective than
1
2
It should be noted that the CASCR endeavored to assess the overall CAS period, and hence took into account the relevant information provided in the CAS PR, consolidating the relevant outcomes and performance
information as outlined in the original CAS (Annex 1 (a), the PR (ref. Annex 1 (b)). In some instances, some outcome indicators were added in the CR because they were not shown in the original CAS and CAS
PR, in order to provide a better basis for carrying out an outcome-focused assessment. The basis for including the outcome indicators were based on inputs from the relevant TTLs, based on the sector strategies
being pursued by the Bank. Under the assessment, relevant milestones were included which reflected progress toward the stated outcomes; hence not all milestones which were included in the CAS PR are
included here, in order to keep an outcome focus in the assessment. Additional notes are provided in the table where other adjustments were made, consistent with an outcome focus in the assessment. It should
also be noted that the original CAS and CAS PR did not include baseline and specific targets for many of the outcome indicators.
The main sources of the evaluation data and other qualitative evidence were provided by the relevant Bank TTLs and reflect information from WBG systems (including latest ISRs).
65 priorities and outcomes outlined in the
proposed PRS 2;
(c) MOF has established two key budget
management
and
accountability
instruments which are in the early stages
of being fully operationalized: integrated
financial management information system
(IFMIS) (launched in mid-2011); and an
internal audit strategy, with on-going
actions to staff the internal audit
secretariat.
Budget Credibility:
1.2 Aggregate expenditure out-turns
compared to the original approved
budget for five ministries3 decrease
from -25 % in 2009/10 to -12 % in
2011/12 (WB)
1.2 Achieved:
(a) GoL budget outturns have improved
steadily. The expenditure deviation for
FY 2010/11 was 8% due to government
actions to accelerate implementation of
pubic investment program during midyear. A cash budget system remains in
place. There are on-going actions to help
sustain these improved expenditure outturns.
(b) MOF has introduced and used reliable
quarterly expenditure reports regularly
(since FY09), and in 2011 published after
6 weeks (compared to 3 months in 2007);
(c) Budget execution still needs further
improvement, especially to ensure timely
preparation of procurement plans for
major programs/projects, which now
forms a requirement in the budget
process).
Capital budget spending was weak as a
result of lack of integration of
procurement planning in the budget
process, but this is being progressively
resolved through improved budgetary
planning and expenditure commitment
process using the IFMIS; and
(d) As stated above, in early 2012, MOF,
working with all Ministries and agencies,
has prepared its first MTEF, and
endeavored to align it with the PRS 2.
This is contributing to enhanced
Approved: May 2009
Closed: June 2010
Rating: Satisfactory
3rd Reengagement and Reform Support
Program:
Amount:US$11.0m
Approved: September 2010
Closed: June 2011
Rating: S
EGIRP (FY08, component: Strengthening
Revenue Management).
4th Reengagement and Reform Support
Program:
Amount: US$5.0 M
Approved: Oct., 2011
Closing: June, 2012
Rating: S (cancelled in FY 13)
Integrated Public Financial Management
Reform Project
Amount: US$ 5.0 M
Approval: Dec. 15, 2011
Closing: June, 2016
Non-Lending:
Public Expenditure Management and
Financial Accountability Review (2008);
Poverty Assessment (2009);
Employment and Pro-Poor Growth
(2010);
Strategic Policy Options for
Liberia’s Medium Term Growth and
Development Strategy and Liberia Rising
2030 (2011);
Growth Diagnostic (2011);
Public Expenditure Review Notes (FY
2012);
66 operations that attempt broad coverage.
3) It is important to carefully choose prior
actions that are likely to open the door for
other important policy and institutional
reforms. For example, the completion of
assessment of the legal framework for
land to determine amendments required to
existing laws is an important first step to
the modernization of the land laws to
create an effective legal framework for
addressing land disputes.
4) Automation of the revenue system is
not only about providing supply and
installation of a new system. It is about a
change management which requires 2-3
years;
5)
Donor coordination was key in
preparing the new PFM operation which
will be effective at end of current FY and
will be important to strengthen in future
budget support operations to support
GoL’s efforts to consolidate and deepen
the
reforms
in
public
financial
management and procurement, and
relevant policy priorities of the
forthcoming PRS 2.
credibility of the budget content and
process.
Revenue Administration
1.3 50% of collected revenue captured
in the Integrated Tax Administration
System/ITAS (WB)
Outcome 2:
Increased
professionalization
and
improved HR management of the civil
service
1.3 Achieved.
(a) Progress in capturing revenue in
SIGTAS is proceeding well, after some
initial delays. No. of taxpayers registered
with TIN is about 139 (out of 468 large
tax payers, which contribute about 80% of
taxes) and 188 (out of 1,179 medium
taxpayers), thus implying achievement of
the 50 percent target of collected revenue
captured in ITAS, due to the large tax
payers.
At the same time, Government has
delayed government decisions on key
issues and availability of additional
funding for the change requests to the
ITAS to ensure the full potential benefits
of ITAS.
(b) As of November, 2011 a tax roll and
tax identification number (TIN) module
was launched at the Large Taxpayer Unit
(LTU) and the Medium Taxpayer Unit on
June 6 and September 1, 2011,
respectively, while implementation of the
tax roll and TIN at the Small Taxpayer
Unit is planned for December 2011.
Introduction of SIGTAS core modules
(tax assessment, payments, audit and
reporting) has been delayed, and likely to
begin in the second half of 2012. The
additional actions will help ensure the full
potential benefits.
2. Partially Achieved: Much of the work
has focused on formulating and approving
( 2008) ) and implementing a civil service
reform strategy, using the SES to help
meet immediate needs and transition to
enhanced CS capacity, and developing
(1) Emergency Senior Executive Service
Project
Amount: $2.30 M;
Approval: October 2007;
Closed: June 2011.
ICR Rating: proposed to be Moderately
Satisfactory
67 (1) Need for more realism in defining
targets, especially in conflict affected,
fragile states. All the CAS targets for
Civil Service reforms program were
unrealistic, when even an accounting of
who the civil servants were was lacking in
addition to the lack of attention to M&E
the tools to professionalize (and
depoliticize) the Civil Service: Job
descriptions, job grades covering all jobs
core and generic jobs in the Civil Service,
Employee
Biometrics
Identification
System, Human Resources Management
Information System, pension strategy, pay
and grading strategy and mandates and
functional reviews in 17 ministries
Civil Service Professionalization
2.1 All core positions filled
competitive selection
by
2.1 Partially Achieved:
a) SES was fully operational (with 98 staff
at post by end of 2011). They were
deployed in 28 ministries and agencies
and 15 counties countrywide. 100 % are
building ministry/agency capacity, and 77
% are rated satisfactory and critical
contributions to their organizations (based
on survey results);
b) CS positions are routinely advertised
and selection carried out in a more
transparent manner, and entry into the
payroll is through the Personnel Action
Notice process controlled by the Civil
Service Agency (CSA);
c) A total of 17 Ministries formulated
restructuring plans and six Ministries and
agencies began some implementation of
these new plans (e..: Civil Service
Agency,
Governance
Commission,
Ministries of Agriculture, Public Works,
Health and Social Welfare, Information
and Tourism);
d) Steady progress in preparing a system
of performance evaluation based on merit
and linked to compensation and
promotion systems, expected to be
completed and approved by end of 2012;
delay is due to the complex nature of the
exercise involving numerous entities as
well as weak capacity for performance
management within the Civil Service
Agency
(2) Economic Governance and
Institutional Reforms Project (EGIRP):
Approved: May 13, 2008
Effective: May 2008;
Closed: August 31, 2011; Additional
financing effective April 2011- December
31, 2013.
Ratings:
DO: Moderately Satisfactory (MS)
IP: Moderately Satisfactory
(3) LICUS Civil Service Reform Project;
Approved: 2007
Effective: September 2007; Completion
date: December 30, 2011;
Ratings:
‐
DO: S
‐
IP: S
2.2: Partially Achieved:
a)
Progress toward pension reform
(including establishment of a pension
68 by GoL to ensure that the activities under
implementation
were
adequately
monitored.
Recommendations:
The new CPS should consolidate and
deepen on-going key civil service reforms
and public sector reforms generally
toward increased professionalization and
improved HR management of the civil
service at both central and decentralized
levels.
Need to move from de jure systems
reforms (HRMIS, job descriptions etc) to
actual employment of the rules/tools in
the management of public sector. Key
issues here include: pay reform, pension
reforms,
HR
and
performance
management, and overall restructuring
and institutional building.
HR Management of Civil Service
2.2 Full account of Civil Service
Pensioners (WB)
working group and design of an initial
contributory
pension
scheme,
dissemination of pension laws and
dialogue sessions on pension reform).
Bank funded Pension reform strategy was
completed, and now awaits Cabinet
consideration.
b) Census of pensioners was completed in
October 2011; Data cleaning is underway
with a report expected in February 2012.
c)
There is partial progress in the
migration of employee data to the HRMIS
module of the IFMIS. It is expected that
this will be completed by the first half of
2012. Delay is due to difficulty in
collecting and corroborating data from
civil servants as well as difficulty of
collecting employee data in outlying
districts given poor infrastructure.
THEME 2: REHABILITATING
INFRASTRUCTURE TO JUMPSTART ECONOMIC GROWTH
Outcome 3:
Improved access to Transport
infrastructure
3.1 20% reduction in travel time between
(a) Monrovia – Ganta and (b) Cotton
Tree – Buchanan by 2011(WB)
Partially Achieved
3.1 Partially Achieved
Cotton Tree - Bokay Town road (15 kms +
additional 10 km) section have been
completed. Travel time on this section has
been reduced by about 50%. Bokay Town
to Port of Buchanan (56.5km) will be
completed by June 2013, due to the
required procurement processes.
Over all, the travel time between Cotton
Tree –Buchanan has been reduced by over
20%. Construction will be completed on
schedule in early June, 2013.
The works on Monrovia-Ganta road
corridor have been delayed due to
unforeseen procurement delays and
Emergency Infrastructure Project (FY06)
Agriculture and Infrastructure
Development Project (FY08)
Urban and Rural Infrastructure
Rehabilitation Project (FY09)
Amount: US$ 100.2 M (includes
additional financing)
Ratings:
DO: Satisfactory
IP: Moderately Satisfactory
Liberia Road Asset Management Project
(FY11)
Amount: US$ 258.8 M
(includes LRTF, additional financing and
GoL contribution)
Ratings:
‐
DO: S
‐
IP: S
Non-lending
69 support
was
provided
1. The use of Output and Performance
based Contracts (OPRC) over traditional
input contracts was introduced to Liberia
during the CAS period. The Design and
Build approach worked successfully on
several projects (Bokay Town to Cotton
Tree, Vai Town Bridge and Monrovia City
Streets) but more awareness on the
benefits of the model needs to be created
within GoL and some donors before it is
completely endorsed.
More time is
needed up front for the initial phases of
procurement for example given but this
has clashed to a certain extent with the
political need of the GoL to produce
quicker results to their people. GoL
capacity to monitor these contracts also
needs to be increased as does their
capacity to lead donor coordination efforts
in the infrastructure sector.
overall capacity issues. Given the
procurement process which is in the early
stages, it will take up to 3 years to
complete the above road corridor
(covering almost 300 kms).
through financing (through Banksupported projects) and helping to guide
several strategic studies to help guide
investment priorities and institutional
reforms (e.g., transport master plan; roads
authority; road maintenance fund);
In addition, some of the road
infrastructure works which have been
completed with WB financing include
(and are generating socio-economic
benefits, although not yet documented):
- Monrovia – Buchanan corridor (83 kms
of roads repaired, up to the international
airport);
- New Vai Town Bridge (in Monrovia)
constructed;
- 24 kms. of specified Monrovia City
streets rehabilitated.
Recommendations for further Bank
support:
The focus of Bank support needs to
include a sound balance between
infrastructure financing and supporting
institutional reforms and capacity building
to ensure long-term sustainability.
Transport sector is hampered by limited
capacity in the Government and the
private sector to deliver and manage
expanded infrastructure.
In addition, through the Bank-financed
Roads Infrastructure Project, Government
has prepared a draft strategy for
establishing an autonomous Roads
Authority and a road maintenance fund;
these institutional reforms are intended to
help ensure efficiency and sustainability
of roads system. The next steps are being
worked out to operationalize these
proposals (in a phased manner)
3.2 Productivity of the Monrovia port
increased from 3 moves/hr per crane in
2008 to 8 moves/hr per crane in 2011
(WB)
Outcome 4:
Improved access to sanitation services
(in Monrovia)
Number of people with access to
municipal solid waste services (in
Monrovia) increases from 0 (2009) to
334,000 (WB)
3.2 Achieved
Productivity of the Monrovia Port has
increased from 3 moves/hr per crane in
2008 to 16 moves/hr per crane in 2011.
This has been enabled through the
establishment of a Port Authority (2010)
and the promotion of a public private
partnership (PPP) concession contract
with one of the world’s largest port
terminal operators.
Achieved
It is estimated that 360,000 people in
Monrovia have access to solid waste
services (as of end-November 2011). As
of early 2012, it is estimated that the MCC
Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation
(EMUS) Project.
FY11 (additional financing)
Amount: US$ 22.4 M
(additional financing)
Ratings:
‐
DO: S
‐
IP: S
70 The importance of governance aspects
cannot be overstated in infrastructure
operations,
especially
in
conflict
affected/fragile states
EMUS Project,
which was planned as an emergency
operation, has also made a major
contribution to the rebuilding of a
municipal government. Again however,
Note: The CAS PR dropped reference to
the water supply sub-component,
which was in the original JCAS, and
which was handled by AfDB (and
required some restructuring).
is collecting and disposing 60% of the
city’s solid waste (from 0% in 2009).
(CMU briefing note for RVP, April, 2011).
This achievement is due to successful
public-private
partnerships
(PPPs)
launched by the City Council for door-todoor collection, transportation and
disposal of waste, as well as management
of the city landfill. PPPs involve private
contractors as well as small communitybased enterprises, and have been tendered
competitively creating a set of incentives
for increased service coverage.
A communication campaign has also been
initiated in order to sensitize the
population about available services and
methods for safe handling of waste. The
campaign is expected to increase the
customer base for the service.
Liberia: Institutional Support to Monrovia
City Corporation (TF funded by the Cities
Alliance (US$50,000)
(approval in FY12)
initial expectations that the municipality
would pick up the entire cost of service
provision was too ambitious a goal.
Recommendation for new CPS.
The TF activity provides advice to the
Monrovia City Corporation (MCC) in the
form of a Policy Note on decentralization
and the fiscal intergovernmental relations
status of the capital city. It is providing
substantive inputs into the formulation of
a new Local Government Bill under the
newly adopted Decentralization Policy.
The TA commenced in October 2011 and
is expected to be finalized by June 2012.
The TA is expected to help augment the
ability of the capital city to generate
resources to fund the delivery of basic
services.
It is recommended that under the next
JCPS, a follow-up to EMUS operation
take place, which builds on achievements,
and sustains the investments under
EMUS. Bank support could also be
extended to other urban areas, building on
the successful experience and model
followed in Monrovia.
Non-Lending:
(1) Close donor coordination leading to a
clear energy strategy by the Government
of Liberia to move forward with a
Management Contract for the power
1) It is not clear why the GoL did not give
the energy sector the same attention and
support as transport in PRS 1.
Nevertheless, the GoL now realizes,
through Bank supported analytical work
The Bank-supported project is also
supporting the Monrovia municipality,
which has the functional mandate to
provide waste services. Following the
results of a financial and an organizational
audit and a subsequent needs assessment,
a capacity building program for the
municipality has been developed and is
currently taking place. In addition to
activities for enhanced revenue collection,
financial and organizational management,
the capacity building program includes
extended on-the-job training for technical
staff of the Solid Waste Department.
Collectively, the above achievements are
providing a solid foundation for achieving
in the short to medium term a successful
model of solid waste service delivery in
Monrovia, and perhaps other urban areas.
Outcome 5: Improved access to
reliable, sustainable and
affordable energy services (in
Monrovia)
Achieved
71 5.1 Number of connections to the
electricity grid increased from 350 in
2006 to 4000 by 2012 (WB)
5.2 Number of household connection to
the electricity grid increased to 1000
by 2012 (WB).
5.1: Achieved
5,158 connections to the electricity grid.
5.2: Partially Achieved
– 832 connections to households (and on
track to achieve the target by mid-2012).
Other Key Outcomes: The management
contract that was put in place through a
coordinated donor effort on 1 July 2010
has proven essential in turning around
Liberia Energy Corporation (LEC),
including improving LEC’s financials and
the capacity of staff at LEC, and making
good progress on electricity connections.
In
addition,
substantial
energy
investments have been mobilized during
2011 and 2012, positioning Liberia to
expand access to energy by private sector
and households (including an additional
30,000 households by 2015).
LEC is also on track to: achieve more
affordable power tariffs for Liberian
citizens (reduce by 15% by 2015); and
reduce commercial losses, largely due to
theft of electricity (12% by 2014).
Outcome 6: Improved Access to Basic
Education:
Partially Achieved
6.1: A coherent and comprehensive
Education Strategic Plan (ESP)
developed
(Baseline: none; Target: ESP)
6.1: Achieved:
The ESP 2010-20 was developed and
subsequently endorsed by the Global
Partnership for Education (formerly FTI)
in 2010, which led to a US$40 million
grant for basic education.
6.2: Annual work plans for key sector
activities developed (Baseline: none;
Target: AWPs, starting in CY11)
6.2: Achieved
Annual and quarterly work plans
developed for sub-components under
GPE/FTI Grant for Basic Education
Project. Also, MoE (in 2009/2010)
utility.
(2) Advisory services provided by IFC to
the Government of Norway in support of
the structuring of the Management
Contract.
(3) Options for the Development of
Liberia’s Energy Sector (2011).
Financing:
1) Financing provided by the
Government of Norway in support of the
Management Plan
2) An investment package financed by the
World Bank, GPOBA, the Government of
Norway, and USAID. The supporting
World Bank operation is entitled “Liberia
Electricity System Enhancement Project”:
Amount: US$ 10 million
Date Approved: 30 November 2010
Closing Date: June 16, 2014
Add’al Financing: US$ 22 M (Jan.,
2012)
Ratings:
- DO: Satisfactory
- IP: Satisfactory
(3) Catalyzing New and Renewable
Energy Project
Amount: US$ 2.0 M
Approved: Dec., 2010
Closing: Sept., 2012
1. Non-Lending:
a) Public
Expenditure Review, education
sector (Jun 2009);
b) Education Country Status Report
(completed Dec 2010);
c) Early Grade Reading/Math
Assessment (Dec 2010); d) Early
Childhood Development policy note
and dialogue (Jun 2011); e) Postbasic education and training/PBET
reform background note (ongoing
f) TA: Rapid Results Approach
coaching (ongoing)
2.
GPE/FTI Grant for Basic
Education Project
Amount:
72 and through practical logic, that the lack
of affordable energy is one the most
binding constraints to growth, and the
sector is now the number one priority in
the PRS 2 and the Bank has been asked to
focus most of its financing on energy
generation
and
transmission
and
distribution. This is a similar situation to
PRS 1 and the request to prioritize
transport- and basically major regional
and national trunks.
The Bank was successful, in both
answering the GoL priority as well as in
diversifying the portfolio through by
responding to GoL requests for assistance
in other sectors as opportunities,
including funding opportunities , became
available.
Complementing IDA availability will
remain key to increasing Bank impact in
Liberia but planning for this in the next
CPS should be less a challenge given the
intense work in preparing the PRS 2 and
its emphasis on outcomes instead of
inputs.
1. Severe capacity constraints for project
planning, implementation, and monitoring
should be expected in post-conflict reengagement. Capacity building for the
implementing agency (MOE) should be an
integral component of project design. In
this case, Rapid Results Approach was
applied appropriately.
Nevertheless, in the case of the MOE, it
is also clear that more support should be
given to change management and the
decision to restructure the GPE/FTI Grant
for Basic
Education responds to this
need but also needs to be complemented
by frank policy dialogue with the
government combined with including
sector reforms in future budget support
developed an Education Management
Information System (EMIS) for enhanced
planning and monitoring.
6.3: Access to basic education improved
through launch of school construction
(Baseline: 0; Target: 164 classrooms by
end FY12
6.4: Learning conditions improved
through launch of procurement of learning
materials for grades 5-9
(Baseline: 0; Target: 1,000,000 textbooks
and 20,000 sets of teacher guides by
end of FY12)
Note: The CAS did not include education
in the original results framework. The
CAS PR updated results framework added
a general reference to “basic education”,
showing only 2 milestones (see *). For
purposes of the CR, 4 key outcomes are
shown to reflect the focus of the Bank’s
contributions to the education sector.
THEME 3: FACILITATING PROPOOR GROWTH
Outcome 7: Improved agriculture and
natural resources to generate pro-poor
growth
6.3: Partially Achieved *
Forty sites selected and technical
drawings for ECD centers, 3- and 6classroom primary schools, and lower
secondary schools completed. Delay due
to MOE’s inexperience with large
procurement contract.
80 classrooms
were built through Bank supported LACE
project- CEPS II.
US$ 40 M Approved: FY11
Closing: Jan. 2014
Ratings:
-- DO: MU
- IP: Unsatisfactory
Project was restructured in FY 13.
operations.
3. Donor coordination is critical in the
education sector and, given that most
donor support goes to basic education, the
decision of the team to work with the GoL
on post-basic education is strategic and
will provide important inputs to an overall
capacity building strategy – both for
young people who have not had any
access to education and for those leaving
primary school.
6.4: Partially Achieved *
Grades 5-9 curriculum is complete.
Bidding documents for grades 7-9
textbooks now under preparation. Delay
due to lack of clarity from MOE on status
of curriculum.
Non-Lending:
1. Diagnostic Trade Integrated Study
Completed June 2008, and published in
7.1 Yields of rice increased from 700
7.1 Not Achieved, due to unforeseen March 2009 under the Integrated
kg/ha to at least 1,000 kg/ha/year
project implementation delays, associated Framework (involving several other donor
among beneficiary farmers by 2016
capacity issues and absence of data partners, such as IMF, UNDP, and WTO).
(WB)
monitoring system. The relevant activities
are due to commence early 2012 and the 2) Agricultural public expenditure
analysis (arrangements completed in
recently launched WAAPP (2011) also
being launched in early 2012).
will contribute toward these outcome
indicators.
Lending:
7.2 Achieved. Vessels without license
1) Agriculture Infrastructure Development
7.2 Number of industrial vessels observed
reduced from 83% (in 2008) to
Project (AIDP)
fishing without a license reduced by 25%
45.4% (in 2011)
Amount: US$ 5 M (agric.component)
Not Achieved: This outcome status is due Approved: July 31, 2007
7.3 Metric tons of cocoa sites increased
Partially Achieved
73 1). In a conflict affected, fragile situation,
the Bank offers the possibility of using OP
8.0 for rapid preparation. Caution should
be used however in multi-sectoral
operations which are complicated even in
countries not suffering from severe
capacity
constraints.
Assigning
responsibilities across several ministries
in this environment (as in the case of
AIDP) weakens clear ownership and
contributes to delayed implementation.
Attend to the basics, adapt to realistic
capacities, sequence the approach, and
aim for simplicity are key for operations
prepared in emergencies.
2) Less emergency relief and more private
from 3,000 in 2007 to 4,000 tons by
2010 (WB)
to unforeseen processing delays, capacity
issues and unrealistic project indicators.
The support to the cocoa sector will now
be provided through the proposed
smallholder tree crop Project (FY12),
which will revise the target indicators to
be more realistic
Closing: Oct. 13, 2013
Ratings:
- DO: MU (agric. component)
- IP: MU (agric. component)
2) West Africa Agricultural Productivity
Project (WAAPP)
Amount: US$ 14.0 M
Approved: March 24, 2011
Closing: June 30, 2016
Ratings:
‐
DO: S
‐
IP: S
sector and SME strengthening long term
approach should drive future support in
the agriculture sector in Liberia. At the
end of the present CAS period, the Bank
is supporting MoA efforts to promote
smallholder-driven
strategies
and
investments in tree crop development,
which will help contribute to pro-poor
agricultural growth and enhanced resource
management. Results will be seen in the
next CPS period.
3) West Africa Regional Fisheries Project
(WARFP)
Amount: US$ 12.0 M
Approved: October 15, 2009
Closing: December 31, 2017
Ratings:
- DO: MS
- IP: MS
Outcome 8: Enhanced Forestry
Governance
Achieved
All illegal concessions cancelled and no
commercial logging outside of concession
framework (WB)
(note: taken from Annex 1(a) of the CAS
PR)
All illegal concessions have been
cancelled and logs from 1.13 million ha of
concessions are controlled, monitored and
legally exported. Revenues related to the
legal concessions timber harvesting and
exports are being monitored, accounted
for and captured by GoL.
Illegal logging is occurring outside
concessions, by the informal sector
(chainsaw milling), to meet domestic
demand. Timber volumes harvested by
informal are thought to significantly
greater than by formal sector.
Initial
regulations are in place to formalize
4) Food Price Crisis Response Trust Fund
Amount: US$ 3.0 M
Approval: May 29, 2008
Closing: October 31, 2013
Ratings:
‐
DO: MU
‐
IP: MU
DFSMP
Amount: US$ 2.0 M
Approval: September 6, 2006
Closing: December 31, 2011
Ratings:
- DO: S
- IP: S
GEF Supported Projects:
- SAPO
- COPAN: DO: S; IP: MS
- EXPAN
Non-Lending Support from:
- FLEG
- PROFOR
74 1)
GoL forest institutions still lack
capacity to directly implement donorsupported and public sector programs
without substantial external technical
support. Greater attention is needed to
ensure institutionalization of strategic
programs, while providing appropriate
capacity development. Some operations
would have benefitted from a stronger TA
component to ensure effective capacity
transfer and implementation support. The
Bank’s field presence of an experience
sector specialist has played an important
role in providing TA, building capacity of
key counterparts and deepening the policy
dialogue.
chainsaw millers and timber fees are
starting to be collected.
Outcome 9: Adoption of Policy
framework for land tenure reform
Partially Achieved
The Bank, in close collaboration with
Government and other key stakeholders,
prepared a land policy study. This work
has provided a major input to the
formulation of a draft land policy and land
law and to the establishment and
functioning
(supported
by
Bank
financing) of a Liberian Lands
Commission which is managing the land
policy process.
The Bank also has played a catalytic role
in promoting coordinated support by
several other donors which are providing
important funding to support the land
policy process and institutional reforms.
The policy framework for land tenure is
still being revised and negotiated with
stakeholders by the Land Commission. A
strategy document (Reform of Liberia’s
Civil Law Concerning Land: A proposed
strategy) was prepared by the Lands
Commission in February 2011, with Bank
support. Policy statements are being
drafted as a basis for preparation of draft
laws that are planned to be presented to
Legislature by end of FY.
Outcome 10: Enhanced Mining
Governance:
Partially Achieved
10.1 Achieve Extractive Industries
10.1 Achieved
Recommendations:
Priorities going forward include:
(a) community capacity strengthening and
developing and regulating the domestic
timber and wood products market;
(b) support to the implementation of the
Community Rights Law to secure
community access to forest resources,
which will be critical for resolving forest
land tenure ambiguities, to long term
sustainability of forest management, to
regulating
domestic
market,
to
implementing VPA and REDD+, and for
equitable growth in sector.
Non-Lending:
Land Policy Study (finalized in October
2008)
Technical Advice to the Land Commission
Financial Support SPBF, US $ 3 M:
Land Sector Reforms: Rehabilitation and
Reform of Land Rights Registration and
Related Matters
Approval: October, 22nd, 2009
Closing: April 30, 2013
Although the Bank-supported project in
the sector is still under implementation,
one may draw the following lessons:
1)
In Liberia, achieving the level of
consensus that can lead to politically
viable solutions and rolling out legal and
institutional reforms will require time and
resources but not addressing the issue of
land adequately is to ignore one of the
main drivers of conflict, historically and
currently, in Liberia. It is important that
the institutions responsible for carrying
out land related activities are adequately
resourced and empowered to carry out
their mandates.
Recommendations
It is recommended that the Bank deepen
ongoing support in the next CPS.
The
possible instruments to deliver Bank
support could include a mix of technical
assistance, budget support (as a
subcomponent), and investments to
strengthen line agencies associated with
policy dialogue supported through MDBS
to ensure sound reform implementation.
1) EGIRP Lending
Amount: US$ 0.496 M
Approval: FY08
75 Despite the optimism after Liberia became
the first African country to be EITI
compliant, it is now clear that there is a
Transparency Initiative (EITI) compliant
status by 2011
Liberia became EITI compliant in 2009
a) All new mining licenses (all types) are
issued through MCMS.
b) There are sound standard mining
development agreements and bidding
documents for mining tenders and new
mining agreements.
Additional in FY10: US$ 1.6 M
Closing: 12/31/2013
Ratings:
- DO: MS; - IP: MS
2) Extractive Industries Technical
Advisory Facility Grant (EI-TAF Grant)
Amount: US$ 1.0 M
c) Two reports published on revenues of
the mining sector (as well as forestry, oil
and agriculture sectors)
Recommendation: In new CPS, Bank
should strengthen technical assistance
with focus on capacity building for
negotiation, contract management and
monitoring of EI projects, and local
procurement. A strong link to IFC could
be achieved through their expected
involvement in an ongoing mining
operation and their advisory services
program.
d) Bank is providing advisory support to
GoL ‘s reform of the Mines and Minerals
Act (in process)
10.2 All industrial scale mining operations
inspected twice a year by Ministry of
Lands, Mines and Energy (WB)
10.3: All industrial scale mine production
subjected to technical audit at least once a
year by MLME and BOC (WB)
need to incentivize the EITI process by
expanding its scope beyond annual
reconciliation reports and turning it into
playing a key role in promoting enhanced
EI
governance
involving
revenue
monitoring, post contract review, and even
revenue
management).
Focus
on
governance has not extended to building
monitoring capacity for not only
contracts/concessions, but also the
operations.
10.2 Partially achieved:
a) Ministry has significant capacity
shortages at the Mine Inspection
Office which are being addressed
under the EGIRP
b) All industrial scale-mining
operations were inspected twice a
year by Ministry of Lands, Mines
and Energy. A skeleton staff of mine
inspectors is visiting mines.
Inspection equipment was only
recently delivered, and capacitybuilding activities will be carried
out in 2012.
10.3: Partially Achieved
Inspection program is being initiated as a
regular activity, while technical assistance
is being provided (e.g., Bank staff
accompanied inspection of Arcelor-Mittal
mine in May 2011)
The BOC and MLME do not yet have the
capacity to audit all operations, and the
Bank is providing support to build audit
capacity in a realistic time-frame.
Outcome 11: Improved Business and
Investment Climate
Achieved
Non-Lending:
There is a need to address more
76 11.1 3-4 reforms related to Doing
Business indicators per year (IFC)
11.2 Increased access to micro-credit for
micro-enterprises (IFC,ADB)
11.1 Achieved:
a) Liberia was recognized as a Top Ten
Global Reformer (in 2010, for
business development); Liberia has
enhanced its ranking on the ease of
doing business (ranked 150 out of
183 economies in 2011, up from
170 out of 178 in 2007)
b) IFC is supporting improvements in the
regulatory environment (e.g., 9 laws
comprising code drafted and passed
in 2010 and 2011) and supports
investment generation through
direct support to sector ministries
and a public-private dialogue
through the Liberian Better
Business Forum. Liberia is also
conducting sector scans to inform
the creation of an Investment
Promotion Strategy.
c) Supported launching (April 2011) of a
state-of-the-art Business Registry which
allows a business to complete registration
in 48 hours from submission of complete
documentation.
d) Supported redrafting of an enhanced
Investment Code
(May, 2010)
11.2 Achieved:
a) IFC supported the establishment
(2009) of a commercial
microfinance bank—Access Bank
Liberia (ABL). ABL went on to
establish five additional branches
and now manages 28,000 accounts
b) IFC worked to set up the West Africa
Venture Fund (“WAVF”) to provide
risk capital and advisory services to
SMEs (WAVF was launched in
April 2011);
c) IFC has supported the development of
financial services infrastructure,
such as a Credit Reference System
and a Secured Transactions
Registry, which enables the
collateralization of movable assets,
1) IFC Advisory Services in Liberia:
a) Phase II (2007 – 2010)
b) Phase III (2011 – 2013) (which is
focusing on providing TA and resources
for rational and coherent support for
sustainable SME development)
2) Private Sector Development Strategy
for Liberia (2011)
Lending:
1) LBDI (44 year old equity investment)
3) Salala Rubber Corporation
Amount: US$ 10 M
Approved: mid 2008
4) Access Bank
Amount: (18% equity investment)
Approved: September, 2008
5) Ecobank
(Tier 2 Facility - US$3 M, Trade Facility $6M)
Approved: June 2010
6) Guarantee Trust Bank
(Trade Finance - US$ 4 Million)
Approved: August, 2011
7) West African Venture Fund (for Liberia
and Sierra Leone)
Amount: US$13,5 M and TA fund of $2
M, split evenly among the 2 countries)
77 proactively and effectively the severe
deficit of human capacity (public & local
private sector), which pose serious
challenges to successful completion of
reform programs/initiatives in private
sector development. This highlights the
need for the GoL to develop a more
coherent private sector development
strategy.
as well as various initiatives that
will permit banks to develop
appropriate financing products for
SMEs and agribusinesses.
d) IFC has helped to develop a completed
SME policy
Outcome 12: Increased access to social
protection and social services in the face
of shocks
Employment generation
12.1 2,440,000 person days of
temporary employment created
through labor intensive works
(1,800,000 from YES, and 680,000
from Fishtown-Harper Road)
Social Service Delivery:
12.2 45,000 beneficiaries of
Community Works Program
Non-Lending:
Partially Achieved
12.1 Partially achieved. 1,240,000
person days of temporary employment
created through labor intensive works (as
of end-Nov. 2011;
Procurement delays have contributed to
delays in construction activities.
Note: Approximately 1.5 million person
days of employment were created
through Bank financed transport
projects during CPS period.
12.2 Partially Achieved:
Cash for work program is made
operational;
7,770 women benefited with temporary
employment;
78 social service sub-projects completed,
and reflect beneficiary priorities and
procurement delays;
20,000 beneficiaries of CEP II (as of endNov., 2011), and reflect enhanced
operational procedures
School Feeding:
61,590 children benefitted from school
feeding, with 43% being girls;
2,480 girls received take-home rations;
underachievement due to poor road
conditions that hindered access in two
of five target counties
Other Key Achievements:
A cash-for-work program implemented by
the Liberia Agency for Community
Empowerment (LACE) benefitted 17,000
people, including groups located in
marginalized urban areas, where unrest is
a significant threat.
1) “What’s Next? A way forward in youth
programming: Identifying the links
between excluded youth and violence in
Liberia and Sierra Leone.”
2) Societal Dynamics and Fragility:
Liberia Case Study
3) Social Protection Diagnostic Review
funded by the Rapid Social Response
Multi-Donor Trust Fund
Lending/Trust Funds:
1) The Cash-for-Work Temporary
Employment Project (CfWTEP) (funded
by the Global Food Price Crisis Trust
Fund (GFPCTF).
Amount: US$ 3.0M
Approved: 29 May, 2008
Closes: July, 2012)
2) Community Empowerment Project II
(CEP II);
USD5 million from IDA and EUR8.5
million in co-financing (managed by the
Bank).
Approved: June 2007
Closes: June 2012
Ratings:
‐
PDO: MS IP: MU
3) YES Project
(funded by the African Catalytic Growth
Fund (ACGF) and the Crisis Response
Window, which contribute USD10 million
and USD6 million respectively).
Approved: June 2010
Closes: June 2013.
Ratings:
‐
PDO: S
‐
IP: MS
78 Supporting post-conflict development in a
country with a youth-oriented population
profile warrants the Bank’s concerted and
adequate attention to working closely with
Government and key stakeholders to
formulate sound strategies and programs
with a strong vulnerable youth orientation.
This support should include strong multisector linkages, in support of promoting
enhanced social cohesion and change.
The Bank is currently carrying out
analytical work involving Liberian’s
youth (vulnerabilities, on-going programs,
and sequencing of interventions) which
can serve as inputs to enhancing strategic
support for Liberia’s youth sector in the
upcoming CPS.
.
To date, under the first and second CEP,
LACE has completed 178 infrastructures,
including schools, health clinics, markets,
bridges and culverts, and improved water
and sanitation sites, throughout Liberia’s
15 counties. Based on LACE’s success in
completing the first CEP, the European
Union co-financed this second
intervention to allow the construction of
an additional 185 sub-projects through the
CEP II. In addition, approximately 3,000
community members and local
government authorities also have received
training from LACE on project
management, as well as conflict resolution
and reconciliation.
4) Economic Empowerment of Adolescent
Girls (EPAG)
Amount: US$ 5.2 M
Approved: Sept. 2008
Closing: Dec., 2012
5) The Emergency Food Support for
Vulnerable Women and Children Project
(implemented by WFP)
Amount: US$3 million through the
GFPCTF
Approved: May 2008
Closed: December 2010.
ICR Rating: Satisfactory
These cash-for-work activities have been
scaled-up through the
Youth, Employment, Skills (YES)
Project, which is comprised of two
complementary components. The first
focuses on employment generation
through temporary community works
activities; to date, 14,000 community
workers have participated in the Project.
The second focuses on improving youth
employability through skills development.
12.3 Not achieved, due to delay in startup of YES Project. Partial achievement is
expected by end of June 2012 (1,200
persons expected to be trained, out of a
target of 4,500).
Skills development
12.3 4,500 persons participating and
completing skills development
programs and receiving certification
79 ATTACHMENT 2
Liberia CAS CR: Planned Lending Program and Actual Deliveries (FY09-FY12) (US$ M)
CAS Plans (March, 2009) – (a)
(Indicative IDA Program + Trust Funds)
Project
FY
Budget Support
Urban and Rural Infrastructure
Rehabilitation I
FY 09
SubTotal for FY09
Urban and Rural Infrastructure
Rehabilitation (Additional Financing)
Growth/Agriculture (includes US$20 M
regional funding)
Budget Support
FY 10
US$ (M)
Status (as of June, 2012)
(Actual IDA Program + Trust Funds) (b)
Actual/Dropped/Forwarded to other FY/Additional Funding
4.0
67.3
- Reengagement and Reform Support II (Budget Support)
- LR-Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Program (URIRP)
71.3
Additional Actual Projects/Financing:
-Emergency Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project (EIRP) Add Fin
-Agriculture and Infrastructure Development Project (AIDP) A F ( AF-IDA
US$16 US$13.1 M (TF)
-Rehab. & Reform of Land Rights Registration Project (TF)
-Liberia Extractive Industries Technical Advisory Facility Project (TF)
-Integrated Financial Management Information System (TF)
-Commercial Debt Reduction Program for Liberia (TF)
Actual Sub Total for FY09
131.9
8.5
32.0
- LR-Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Program (URIRP) Add Fin (IDA 20M and 9.2 from LRTF)
- West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (includes Regional IDA of
US$8.7 M)
8.2
29.1
2.9
1.0
3.7
39.0
29.2
8.7
5.0
Additional Actual Projects/Financing:
- Co-financing of Liberia Community Empowerment Project (TF)
- Youth, Employment and Skills Project (YES) (CRW and African Growth
Catalytic Fund*)
-Liberia Rural Energy (TF)
SubTotal for FY10
US$
(M)
4.0
44.0
45.5
Forwarded to FY11: Budget Support
Actual SubTotal for FY10
80 10.8
16.0
1.4
66.1
FY 11
Urban and Rural Infrastructure
Rehabilitation II
Energy (includes US$140 M Regional IDA
funding)
Budget Support
20.2
155.0
6.0
Forwarded to FY12: West Africa Power
Pool – US$8.6 M plus regional )
SubTotal for FY11
Per CAS PR
Transport
WAPP
Small Holder Tree Crop
DPO
Planned Total: FY 9-11
Planned Total: FY 9-12
10.0
- Re-Engagement and Reform Support Program III (Budget Support)
11.0
Additional Actual Projects/Financing:
-West Africa Agric Productivity Project (includes Reg IDA of 4.M)
-Liberia Road Asset Management Program (LIBRAMP) (includes 108.9 M from LRTF and 67.7 M from IDA).
-Basic Education –EFA-ETI
Forwarded to FY12: Small Holder Tree Crop
Revitalization (US$ 10 M)
FY 12
- LIBERIA Electricity System Enhancement Project (LESEP)
-West Africa Regional Connectivity Program (includes Reg. IDA of 17M)
-Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation (EMUS) (includes 18.4 M from LRTF and 4 million from IDA) )
- Economic Governance and Institutional Reform Project (EGIRP)
181.2
40.0
35.0
5.0
298.0M
338.0 M
Actual Subtotal for FY 11
6.0
176.6
40.0
25.5
22.4
7.0
298.5
-Re-Engagement and Reform Support Program IV
-Integrated Public Financial Management Reform Project (IDA 5M and
22M- MDTF)
-LESEP AF (22M IDA and 10M GPOBA)
- Small Holder Tree Crop Revitalization
- West Africa Power Pool – CSLG (includes136.4 regional IDA)
Actual and Proposed SubTotal for FY12
Actual Totals: FY 9-11
Actual Totals: FY 09-12:
81 5.0
28.5
32.0
15.0
150.
230.5
496. 5
727.0
ATTACHMENT 3
CAS CR: Planned Non lending Services and Actual Deliveries
FY
CAS PLANS (March 2009)
FY09
Land Tenure and Sustainable Development
(from FY08)
Diagnostic Trade Integration Study
Oil Palm Sector Study
Policy Note on Pro-poor Growth
PEMFAR
Actual/Completed (early FY09)
Policy notes (e.g. macro, fiscal
decentralization, agriculture, and social
protection)
Women’s Economic Empowerment (WB)
Education Sector Assessment
Actual and Partial: Policy Note on Pro-poor Growth
Poverty Assessment (WB)
Energy and Electricity Strategy
Partial: Poverty Assessment: Background paper and workshop
delivered
Completed in FY11
EITI ++ Scoping Study
Forwarded to FY11
FY10
Status/Additional Products *
Actual/Completed
Dropped
Forwarded to FY10
Dropped
Completed
Additional Non lending/Products:
EITI + Scoping Study
PRS II Technical Assistance (Macroeconomic Framework for
National Vision and Making Strategic Policy Tradeoffs;
various policy notes listed below; Results Framework TA by
WBI): In Process and Completed in FY12 (2nd Quarter)
Policy Notes: (initiated and completed by end 2011)
- Growth Diagnostics Study
- Prioritizing Infrastructure for Economic Diversification
- Leveraging Natural Resource Concessions
- Private Sector development in Liberia
- Political Economy and Exclusion in Liberia
- Social Protection in Liberia
- Fragility and Social Structure (to be completed FY12)
Agro-Industrial Development Policy: In Process and to be
completed in FY12
FY12 The JCAS was extended for FY12, and
FY12: Additional Products
therefore none were programmed.
- Options for the Development of Liberia’s Energy Sector
- Security Expenditure Review (with UNMIL)
- Social sector expenditure review
- Sector Policy Briefing Notes for post-election
- PRS II Technical Assistance- PREM and WBI
- Water point mapping - WSP
- Public Expenditure Review (including PEFA, begin in 4th
Quarter) (WB/AfDB)
- Poverty Assessment Update
- Public Debt Management Reform Plan Design
-NLTA in design of anti- money laundering law
-Social Protection Strategy
* Note: Some additional non-lending activities by the WBG, including IFC, are shown in Annex 1 (column 3)
FY11
None were programmed
82 ATTACHMENT 4
Liberia World Bank Portfolio and Pipeline
(Including Trust Funds): Source (JCAS Report, 2009)
83 ANNEX 3: STRATEGIC GOALS OF THE AGENDA FOR TRANSFORMATION
Pillar I
Pillar II
Pillar III
Pillar IV
Goal - to create an atmosphere of
peaceful co-existence based on
reconciliation and conflict resolution
by providing security, access to
justice, and rule of law to all.
Goal - to transform the economy to
meet the demands of Liberians through
development of the domestic private
sector –using resources leveraged from
FDI.
Goal – in partnership with citizens, create
transparent, accountable and responsive public
institutions that contribute to economic and
social development as well as inclusive and
participatory governance systems.
 Maintain the current security
situation and the nation’s territorial
integrity
and
ensure
their
sustainability during and after
UNMIL withdrawal;
 Engage
civil
society
and
development partners to support the
most critical transition from a
fragile post-conflict nation to a
stable, unified one with a vibrant
future;  Increase equitable access to
justice, particularly for remote and
marginalized population; increase
consistency between traditional and
statutory legal systems;  continue to address the key
sources of conflict and insecurity to
maintain a secure and safe
environment
for
sustainable
economic growth and development.  Promote and sustain private sector
development
through
enhanced
economic
competitiveness
and
diversification,
increased
value
addition and improved administrative
and policy environment;
 Increase access to reliable and
affordable energy, transport, and ICT
services;
 Maintain fiscal, monetary, trade and
exchange rate policies that entrench
macroeconomic stability and support
efficient
public
expenditure
management;
 Promote competitive and modern
agriculture and forestry to contribute
to reducing poverty;
 Promote sustainable, transparent and
well-managed
exploitation
of
Liberia’s mineral resources.
Goal- to improve quality of life by
investing in more accessible and higher
quality education; affordable and
accessible healthcare; social protection
for vulnerable citizens, and expanded
access to healthy and environmentally
friendly water and sanitation services.
 Assure equitable access to free basic
education and improve quality and
accessibility of secondary, tertiary and
vocational education;
 Increase access and utilization of
quality health services and deliver them
close to communities;
 Develop and implement policies and
operational systems to protect the most
vulnerable
groups;
increase
employment readiness, especially for
youth;
 Expand
equitable
access
to
sustainable water and sanitation
services and improve sector capacity to
govern and operate service provision.
 Engage with citizens to ensure equitable,
peaceful, transparent and inclusive democratic
institutions and enhanced political governance
at national and local levels;
 Continue building independent, accountable,
merit-based and performance oriented, wellstructured public sector with improved service
delivery;
 Strengthen public institutions to ensure
revenues and government assets are well
managed., free from corruption and
monitored;
 Develop comprehensive national land tenure,
including land use system, that will provide
equitable access to land and security of tenure
so as to facilitate inclusive, sustained growth
and development, ensure peace and security
and provide sustainable management of the
environment;
 Improve the negotiations, management and
monitoring of concessions to ensure they
contribute effectively to broad based
economic and social development
Pillar V
Goal: mainstreaming cross cutting issues across all sectors for society’s overall productivity and well-being with particular emphasis on the vulnerable segment of the country’s population.

Improve the socio-economic and political status of women, ensure protection of children’s rights, improve access to equitable opportunities for disabled, empower young people as full participants in all aspects of
Liberian society;

Improve management of environment; reduce spread of HIV/AIDS and mitigate its impact on persons living with AIDS; combat human rights abuses and advance welfare of all Liberians, irrespective of sex, ethnicity
etc.; promote sustainable creation of decent jobs for Liberians.
Capacity development is an integral part of sectoral pillars.
84 ANNEX 4: DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
AND
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
LIBERIA
JOINT IMF/WORLD BANK DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS1
(Approved by Sean Nolan and Chris Lane [IMF] and Marcelo Giugale and
Jeffrey D. Lewis [World Bank])
November 2, 2012
Summary: The Debt Sustainability Analysis, which incorporates an increase in borrowing
and public investment, indicates that Liberia continues to have a low risk of debt distress.
The macroeconomic assumptions are underpinned by developments in the iron ore sector. In
the near term, foreign financed investment provides a boost to growth and leads to a
widening of the current account deficit. Going forward, an increase in iron ore exports and a
winding down of import-intensive investments support a narrowing in the current account.
Consistent with the Government of Liberia’s debt management policy, the DSA assumes a
ceiling on annual foreign currency borrowing of 4 percent of GDP in present value terms to
support public investment, particularly in energy and transportation infrastructure. The
projected present value of the external debt stock would remain low and sustainable with all
debt indicators below the policy-related thresholds.
I. KEY ASSUMPTIONS UNDER THE BASELINE SCENARIO
1. Liberia has recorded solid macroeconomic performance and is increasing external
borrowing for key public investment projects while maintaining low debt
vulnerabilities. Having achieved HIPC completion point in June 2010, and successful
completion of the three-year IMF Extended-Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, the
authorities are now focused on scaling-up much needed public investment, especially in
energy and transport infrastructure. Increasing foreign currency borrowing to 4 percent of
GDP in PV terms is in line with maintaining low debt vulnerabilities while providing room
for higher public investment. External debt would rise to 27 percent of GDP in 2014/15, from
10 percent of GDP in 2011/12. Central government domestic debt at 17.6 percent of GDP in
1
The LIC-DSA incorporates the following general assumptions: (i) the discount rate is fixed at 4 percent;
(ii) the exchange rates are based on WEO assumptions; and (iii) the risk of debt distress based on country-specific policydependent thresholds, based on the country’s CPIA index, which for Liberia is 3.0. All data refers to the fiscal year which
runs from July to June.
85 2011/12, of which 95 percent is foreign currency denominated, is expected to gradually fall
to 12.8 percent by 2014/15.2
2.
The key change in the baseline scenario compared with the previous DSA is a
revision to the underlying level of GDP in line with new national accounts estimates
(Box 1). Nominal GDP has been revised upwards by close to one third based on survey data
which takes better account of the services sector. Growth rates between 2008 and 2012 have
also been revised upward, by an average of 1.5 percentage points, because the services sector
is estimated to be significantly faster growing than most non-service sectors. Overall, growth
prospects in the medium-term are 1.4 percentage points higher on average than in the
previous DSA, mostly related to faster than expected growth in the services sector and higher
public investment in line with the authorities’ draft second poverty reduction strategy (PRS2)
(Boxes 2 and 3). This higher investment is financed through external borrowing in line with
the agreed debt limit resulting in larger fiscal deficits in the near term. The current account is
also expected to be larger than the previous DSA, by close to 5 percentage points of GDP on
average in the medium term, related to lower export growth in the commodities sector.
3. There are significant risks to the baseline scenario, particularly around
developments in the concessions sector and in commodity prices. The baseline scenario
takes a cautious approach on the prospects for the initiation in iron ore production and only
includes operations for one concession over the projection period. As a result economic
growth, exports and fiscal revenues are relatively conservative estimates. At the same time, a
decline in commodity prices, particularly in the iron ore sector, could have a significant
impact on investment, the external position and revenues.
2
Liberia is a highly dollarized economy. The de jure exchange rate regime is classified as ‘managed float’. For more
information see Article IV Consultation and the new ECF Arrangement, Informational Annex (2012). 86 Box 1. Key Baseline Macroeconomic Assumptions
Real GDP growth in the non-mining sector is assumed to accelerate in the next few years, supported by the
public investment program and services sector. Real annual growth including the mining sector is expected
to average 7 percent between 2012/13 and 2015/16 as production capacity in the mining sector increases.
Growth then fluctuates around an average rate of 6 percent, ending at 5.5 percent at the end of the projection
period. There are potential upsides to the growth projection if additional iron ore concessions begin
production, ongoing petroleum exploration identifies commercially viable oil deposits, and the government
succeeds in securing financing for the more ambitious development program.
Inflation in local currency (GDP deflator index) is expected to be 6 percent on average in 2012/13 and then
averages 5 percent from 2014 onwards.
The merchandise trade deficit widens sharply over the next four years due to a strong increase miningrelated imports. However, the strong pick-up in iron ore production in 2015 supports a gradual decline in
the trade deficit.
Export growth in the near term is lower than in the previous DSA, due to lower commodity prices,
particularly for rubber and iron ore. From 2012/13 to FY14/15 export growth accelerates to a peak of 23
percent due to the initiation of iron ore exports. Exports of goods and services then slow, growing at an
average of 4 percent from 2016/17 to 2029/30.
Import growth, largely driven by imports of capital goods related to the iron ore sector, is partially offset
by lower imports by UNMIL as a result of the expected drawdown. Between 2012/13 and 2015/16 import
growth in goods is 13 percent, while services imports fall by average of 10 percent. From 2018/19 onwards
these effects are phased out and the average annual growth in goods and services is expected to be 5 percent.
The current account deficit of the balance of payments widens to 64 percent of GDP in 2013/14 in line
with investment in the iron ore sector. Following this, the current account deficit narrows rapidly to 32
percent of GDP in 2015/16. Beyond this the current account narrows averaging 15 percent of GDP.
Tax revenues are projected to remain stable at around 19.5 percent of GDP during the projection period.
The external borrowing policy was agreed in the IMF ECF-supported program with annual external
borrowing up to 4 percent of GDP in NPV terms on average between 2012/13-2014/15. The Government’s
Agenda for Transformation (PRS2) places emphasis on addressing the large infrastructure needs,
particularly in the energy and transportation sectors. Part of this investment is expected to be financed
through external borrowing raising external debt to GDP from 8 percent of GDP in 2011/12 to 22 percent of
GDP in 2014/15. Beyond this, borrowing is expected to gradually stabilize at 2 percent of GDP in 2022/23.
All new external borrowing is assumed to be on concessional (IDA) terms. Domestic borrowing, supplied
through a planned Treasury bill market, is assumed constant at 1 percent of GDP per year beginning in
2016/17.
External grants (excluding UNMIL) are expected to progressively decline from 21 percent of GDP in
2012/13 to about 17 percent in 2015/16. Beyond this, grants are projected to decline to 10 percent of GDP
by the end of the projection period.
87 Box 2. Liberia: Agenda for Transformation (2012–17)
The Agenda for Transformation is a five-year development plan that underpins Vision 2030 to
achieve middle-income status by 2030. The plan focuses on investments in five strategic pillars—at an
estimated cost of US$3.3 billion over the five-year period—to increase productivity, boost economic
growth, and improve social inclusion, particularly among youth. The pillars are:

Economic transformation, particularly rehabilitating the hydropower plant, roads, and ports, and
updating information and communications technology;

Human development especially education and health;

Peace, security, and the rule of law;

Governance and public institutions to modernize the public sector and enhance transparency and
accountability; and,

Cross-cutting issues focussed on youth skills, child protection, gender equality, and human rights.
Financing the investment program

The government plans to cover 12–15 percent of investments with its own resources and is
planning a pledging donors’ conference in late 2012 to secure loans and grants.
Liberia: Agenda for Transformation Costing Summary (million US dollars)
FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17
Pillar 1. Economic Transformation
Pillar 2. Human Development
Pillar 3. Peace, Security, and Rule of Law
Pillar 4. Governance and Public Institutions
Pillar 5. Cross-cutting Issues
Total
594.1
87.2
73.1
40.3
19.5
814.2
532.4
100.9
90.3
16.5
28.7
768.9
439.4
120.8
92.1
14.5
22.5
689.3
Source: Ministry of Finance, Agenda for Transformation (As of August 30, 2012).
88 354.9
121.1
77.1
14.1
22.1
589.2
267.8
128.9
73.0
10.0
19.2
498.9
Five year
2,188.6
558.9
405.6
95.5
111.9
3,360.5
Box 3. Liberia: Assessing the impact from scaling up investment
A dynamic economic model, calibrated to Liberia specifics, was used to simulate the macroeconomic
impact of scaling up infrastructure investment and improving project efficiency.1 As the model focuses on
identifying the return from public investment relative to a stable long-term trend and other modeling
differences, the estimates are not directly comparable to the underlying macroeconomic framework used in
the DSA. Starting from Liberia’s low base of investment of close to 3 percent of GDP, a 5 percentage point
of GDP increase in investment over a seven year period was modeled.
Liberia: Real Per Capita Income Growth
(Percentage change, y.o.y)
6.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
Low efficiency
Baseline
2.0
High efficiency
1.0
1.0
1
5
9
13
Sources: IMF staff calculations.
Estimates suggest public investment would contribute an additional 1 percentage point each year to real
GDP per capita over ten years. The growth effect peaks 3-4 years after the initial investment and then
gradually declines over time. The estimate assumes an efficiency rate of public investment of around 60
percent. Assuming an improvement in the efficiency rate to 80 percent, consistent with improved project
selection and strengthened execution capacity, real per capita income growth could potentially increase by
an additional half percentage point over the medium term. Given the caveats associated with this exercise,
the simulation should be seen as an approximation rather than a forecast.
1/
The average for low income countries. The efficiency rate measures the rate at which executed public
investment translates into productive capital. For more details see Buffie, E. A. Berg, C. Patillo, R. Portillo,
and L. Zanna, 2012, “Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting Together the Pieces.”
IMF WP No. 12/144
89 II. EXTERNAL DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
4.
Following HIPC debt relief, Liberia’s external debt is forecast to rise steadily, due to
increased new concessional borrowing to fund infrastructure development. (Tables 1 and Figure
1). In the medium term, the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise steadily from 10.7 percent in
2012/13 to 16.1 percent by 2014/15, reaching 19.8 percent by 2018/17 and gradually declining
thereafter. Debt service increases moderately over time, peaking in 2021/22. Due to the concessional
nature of debt together with rising exports and revenues from iron ore production, debt and debt
service indicators remain well below the country-specific debt burden thresholds. These thresholds
are based on an assessment of country policies and institutions compiled annually by the World Bank
(CPIA)3.
5. The sensitivity analysis shows that the debt indicators remain within sustainable limits
(Figure 1 and Tables 2a and 2b).

PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio. Under the alternative scenario of less favorable borrowing
terms the PV of external debt-to-GDP rises close to, but remains below, the 30 percent threshold.
Given that the majority of debt is expected to be contracted on fixed interest rates, the impact of this
scenario is likely to be more limited. The historical scenario shows that if key macroeconomic
variables return to their average between 2004/05 to 2011/12 debt reaches close to the threshold of 30
percent of GDP towards the end of the projection period. However, as noted in the previous DSA the
risk associated with this scenario is low due to very unreliable historical data following the end of an
extensive period of political and social instability.4 In addition, the historical scenario is relatively
less severe than the previous DSA due to the revision to GDP data and higher private external
financing flows.

PV of external debt and debt service-to-exports ratio. The PV of external
debt-to-exports ratio is most sensitive to the historical scenario, interest rate shock and export growth
shock but remains below the threshold of 100 percent. The debt service ratio remains well below the
threshold of 15 percent in all scenarios.

PV of external debt and debt service-to-revenue ratio. The PV of external debt-to-revenue
ratio is slightly sensitive under alternative and stress scenarios showing some sensitivity to exports
and less favorable borrowing terms. Both the debt and debt service-to-revenue ratios are well below
the policy thresholds in all scenarios throughout the projection period.
3
See Classification of Low-Income Countries for the Purpose of Debt Limits in Fund-Supported Programs: 2011 Update
(IMF, 2011). With a CPIA rating below 3.25 on average for the past three years, Liberia is classified as a “weak” policy
performer. This implies debt burden thresholds of 30 percent for the PV of
debt-to-GDP ratio, 100 percent for the PV of debt-to-exports ratio, 200 percent for the PV of debt-to-revenue ratio, 15
percent for debt service-to-exports ratio, and 18 percent for the debt service-to-revenue ratio.
4
The historical scenario relies on averages between 2004/05 to 2011/12. 90 III. PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
6. Following the resumption of new borrowing after debt relief, the baseline scenario of all
public debt indicators will rise moderately (Figure 2, Table 3). Under the baseline scenario the PV
of public debt-to-GDP rises slightly to 25 percent of GDP and remains broadly stable. The PV of
debt-to-revenue ratio rises to a peak of close to 90 percent of GDP and then follows a slight
downward path towards the end of the projection period. The PV of debt service-to-revenue ratio
follows a similar trajectory, rising to 5 percent of GDP over the projection period.
7. Alternative and shock scenarios highlight the potential risks associated with a lower GDP
growth (Table 4). Under the alternative scenario of a shock to GDP growth in 2013/14 and 2014/151
the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio will increase from 10.8 percent in 2010/11 to about 90 percent by the
end
of
the
projection
period.
The
PV
of
the
public
debt-to-revenue ratio also deteriorates under the growth shock scenario, reaching close to 300 percent
by the end of the projection period. However, the debt service-to-revenue ratio will remain reach
around 15 percent under an alternative scenario of lower GDP growth.
IV. CONCLUSION
8. The increase in debt in Liberia to finance much needed public infrastructure investments is
consistent with maintaining low debt vulnerabilities. The authorities are committed to borrow only
for investment and to maintain debt sustainability. The underlying macroeconomic assumptions and
DSA results were discussed with the authorities. In the baseline scenario, which assumes new foreign
currency borrowing of 4 percent of GDP on concessional terms, increased investment, and moderate
rates of growth, all external debt burden indicators remain below their policy-dependent thresholds.
While there are risks to the baseline, particularly from adverse changes in commodity markets, the
key debt and debt service indicators remain below the indicative thresholds.
1
Defined as a one-standard deviation shock to average GDP growth between 2004/05-2011/12, implying growth of -2.7
percent in both FY14 and FY15.
91 Figure 1. Liberia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt
under Alternatives Scenarios, 2013-2033 1/
a. Debt Accumula tion
8
53
7
52
6
51
5
4
b.PV of debt-to GDP ra tio
35
30
50
25
49
20
48
3
47
2
46
1
45
0
44
2013
2018
2023
2028
Rate of Debt Accumulation
Grant-equivalent financing (% of GDP)
Grant element of new borrowing (% right scale)
c.PV of debt-to-exports ra tio
120
100
15
10
5
0
2013
2018
2023
2028
d.PV of debt-to-revenue ratio
250
200
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0
2013
2018
2023
2028
e.Debt service-to-exports ratio
16
0
2013
2018
2023
2028
f.Debt service-to-revenue ra tio
20
18
14
16
12
14
10
12
8
10
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
2013
2018
Baseline
2023
2028
2013
Historical scenario
2018
2023
Most extreme shock 1/
2028
Threshold
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ T he most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2023. In each figure it corresponds
to a terms shock where public sector loans are on less favourable terms.
92 Table 1.: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2010-2033 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Historical 6/ Standard 6/
Average
Deviation
Actual
External debt (nominal) 1/
o/w public and publicly guaranteed (PPG)
Change in external debt
Identified net debt-creating flows
Non-interest current account deficit
Deficit in balance of goods and services
Exports
Imports
Net current transfers (negative = inflow)
o/w official
Other current account flows (negative = net inflow)
Net FDI (negative = inflow) 2/
Endogenous debt dynamics 3/
Denominator: 1+g+r+gr
Contribution from nominal interest rate
Contribution from real GDP growth
Contribution from p rice and exchange rate changes
Residual (3-4) 4/
o/w exceptional financing
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
140.4
140.4
-131.2
-17.7
30.9
99.0
41.5
140.5
-82.2
-28.5
14.1
-29.1
-19.5
1.1
0.0
-14.4
-5.1
-113.5
-9.0
8.1
8.1
-132.3
-22.1
33.4
94.9
44.7
139.6
-74.1
-28.3
12.6
-36.3
-19.2
1.2
0.1
-8.7
-10.6
-110.2
-3.8
10.1
10.1
2.1
1.5
43.8
91.6
45.5
137.2
-60.5
-24.6
12.7
-41.2
-1.1
1.2
0.1
-0.6
-0.6
0.6
0.0
15.7
15.7
5.6
3.4
57.5
90.2
44.0
134.2
-48.5
-21.2
15.8
-53.5
-0.6
1.1
0.1
-0.8
…
2.2
0.0
22.1
22.1
6.4
3.9
64.0
86.5
42.8
129.3
-40.5
-20.0
18.1
-59.2
-0.8
1.1
0.2
-1.0
…
2.4
0.0
27.0
27.0
4.9
4.1
51.4
63.7
47.3
111.0
-31.5
-18.5
19.3
-46.2
-1.1
1.1
0.2
-1.3
…
0.8
0.0
30.7
30.7
3.7
3.6
31.6
39.0
50.7
89.6
-25.2
-17.3
17.8
-26.8
-1.3
1.1
0.2
-1.5
…
0.2
0.0
34.1
34.1
3.4
3.0
24.1
30.7
47.9
78.6
-22.5
-16.8
15.9
-19.8
-1.4
1.1
0.3
-1.6
…
0.4
0.0
...
...
...
...
...
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
162.1
...
...
...
...
...
0.7
0.7
1.3
-37.2
165.7
7.9
17.3
7.9
17.3
30.2
1.0
1.0
1.7
50.0
41.7
10.6
24.2
10.6
24.2
42.7
1.1
1.1
1.9
82.6
51.9
13.8
32.1
13.8
32.1
51.9
1.5
1.5
2.4
107.9
57.6
16.1
34.0
16.1
34.0
62.4
1.6
1.6
2.9
131.3
46.5
17.8
35.1
17.8
35.1
73.0
1.6
1.6
3.4
137.2
27.9
5.7
1.9
0.0
-8.4
-7.6
...
22.5
13.0
13.0
0.0
...
...
7.2
8.2
0.1
25.0
15.2
...
23.6
40.3
40.3
0.0
...
...
8.5
7.6
1.2
18.9
14.7
...
26.1
28.3
28.3
0.0
...
...
8.6
2.9
1.5
8.0
9.3
46.9
24.9
148.8
44.8
104.0
5.6
60.7
6.9
1.0
1.2
5.1
4.0
48.0
26.5
181.7
46.7
135.0
6.1
59.8
6.4
4.2
1.0
22.5
-4.8
48.2
25.8
183.0
40.0
143.0
5.4
58.2
1223.5
7.7
1418.7
15.9
1656.4
16.8
129.2
1850.9
11.7
193.6
3.9
1998.5
8.0
270.6
4.2
2215.8
10.9
351.1
4.0
28.0
10.2
-92.4
39.6
-24.8
11.9
2013-2018
Average
2023
2033
35.3
35.3
1.2
1.5
20.6
27.5
45.7
73.1
-20.5
-15.9
13.6
-17.1
-2.0
1.1
0.3
-2.2
…
-0.3
0.0
32.1
32.1
-0.9
-0.6
11.9
19.5
38.5
58.0
-16.3
-12.5
8.8
-11.0
-1.5
1.1
0.2
-1.8
…
-0.3
0.0
25.0
25.0
-1.3
0.1
13.2
17.8
28.1
45.9
-10.1
-7.6
5.5
-12.0
-1.1
1.1
0.2
-1.3
…
-1.4
0.0
19.3
40.3
19.3
40.3
79.1
1.8
1.8
3.6
134.2
20.7
19.8
43.3
19.8
43.3
82.7
1.8
1.8
3.4
119.9
19.4
18.0
46.8
18.0
46.8
76.2
1.9
1.9
3.0
68.4
12.8
14.3
51.0
14.3
51.0
63.1
2.2
2.2
2.8
162.4
14.5
6.1
3.5
0.9
17.5
-11.4
50.2
24.4
189.2
39.2
150.0
4.9
59.9
5.6
0.1
0.9
0.0
-7.2
52.3
24.4
254.8
109.8
145.0
7.2
72.9
7.1
1.1
0.8
3.3
0.8
52.3
23.9
238.8
118.8
120.0
6.5
76.0
5.8
1.9
0.8
4.2
4.9
52.3
23.7
256.6
175.6
81.0
5.3
84.9
5.4
5.0
0.8
5.6
5.0
52.3
22.7
538.8
388.8
150.0
5.1
86.7
2431.2
9.7
425.5
3.4
2571.8
5.8
489.2
2.6
2784.3
8.3
543.2
2.1
4113.8
7.8
731.4
1.0
9109.6
10.7
1286.9
0.8
2019-2033
Average
13.8
-14.6
-12.5
PV of external debt
In percent of exports
PV of PPG external debt
In percent of exports
In percent of government revenues
Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent)
PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent)
PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent)
Total gross financing need (M illions of U.S. dollars)
Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio
Projections
Key macroeconomic assumptions
Real GDP growth (in percent)
GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in p ercent)
Effective interest rate (percent) 5/
Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent)
Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent)
Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent)
Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP)
Aid flows (in M illions of US dollars) 7/
o/w Grants
o/w Concessional loans
Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/
Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP (M illions of US dollars)
Nominal dollar GDP growth
PV of PPG external debt (in M illions of US dollars)
(PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent)
5.0
7.6
0.4
17.6
41.9
...
Sources: Country authorities; and st aff estimat es and projections.
1/
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
8/
7.7
3.3
0.7
15.8
68.6
...
6.8
2.1
1.1
9.4
-1.6
49.6
9.1
3.4
0
Only includes public sect or external debt due t o lack of dat a availability of private debt . Fiscal year basis.
Includes privat e financing flows, including for iron-ore relat ed invest ment which was included in FDI in t he previous DSA.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, wit h r = nominal interest rat e; g = real GDP growt h rat e, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflat or in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes except ional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For project ions also includes contribut ion from price and exchange rat e changes.
Current -year interest payments divided by previous period debt st ock.
Hist orical averages and standard deviat ions are from 2004/05 to 2011/12 due to dat a availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to t he government and t hrough new borrowing (difference between t he face value and the P V of new debt ).
93 5.8
2.3
0.8
4.8
4.9
52.3
24.4
5.4
84.4
8.2
1.0
Table 2a.Liberia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2013-2033
(In percent)
Proje ctions
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
2033
11
14
16
18
19
20
18
14
11
11
14
16
16
20
17
24
18
27
19
29
23
29
27
26
11
11
11
11
11
11
14
15
13
22
7
19
16
22
15
21
-5
23
18
23
17
22
-2
25
19
25
19
23
0
27
20
25
19
24
1
28
18
22
17
21
3
25
14
16
14
15
8
20
24
32
34
35
40
43
47
51
24
24
32
37
33
43
34
47
39
57
42
63
60
76
95
93
24
24
24
24
24
24
32
36
32
51
17
32
33
60
33
43
-12
33
35
60
35
43
-5
35
40
67
40
49
-1
40
43
71
43
52
3
43
46
74
46
55
9
46
50
72
50
54
33
50
Baseline
A. Alternative Scenarios
43
52
62
73
79
83
76
63
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2013-2033 1/
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2013-2033 2
43
43
51
60
61
79
71
99
76
112
81
121
98
123
118
115
43
43
43
43
43
43
52
55
50
83
27
73
63
86
60
80
-19
87
73
96
70
90
-9
102
80
102
76
96
-1
111
83
105
79
99
4
116
77
94
73
89
12
107
64
70
60
67
35
88
PV of de bt-to GDP ratio
Baseline
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2013-2033 1/
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2013-2033 2
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 3/
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 4/
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2014 5/
PV of de bt-to-e xports ratio
Baseline
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2013-2033 1/
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2013-2033 2
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 3/
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 4/
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2014 5/
PV of de bt-to-re ve nue ratio
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 3/
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 4/
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2014 5/
94 Table 2b.Liberia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2013-2033 (continued)
(In percent)
Debt service-to-exports ratio
Baseline
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
3
1
3
1
3
2
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
1
2
2
2
3
3
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
3
5
3
5
2
4
3
6
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
4
3
4
3
4
2
5
4
4
3
4
2
5
4
4
3
4
2
5
3
3
3
3
2
4
3
3
3
3
1
4
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2013-2033 1/
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2013-2033 2
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 3/
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 4/
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2014 5/
Debt service-to-revenue ratio
Baseline
A. Alternative Scenarios
A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2013-2033 1/
A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2013-2033 2
B. Bound Tests
B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 3/
B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015
B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2014-2015 4/
B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks
B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2014 5/
Memorandum item:
Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
2/ Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
3/ Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock
(implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
4/ Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
5/ Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
6/ Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the95 terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Figure 2.Liberia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2013-2033 1/
Baseline
Fix Primary Balance
Most extreme shock Growth
Historical scenario
100
PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio
80
60
40
20
0
-20
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
400
350
PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
2013
2015
2017
2019
18
16
Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2013
2015
2017
2019
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2023.
2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
96 Table 3.Liberia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2010-2033
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Actual
2010
Public sector debt 1/
o/w foreign-currency denominated
Change in public sector debt
Identified debt-creating flows
Primary deficit
Revenue and grants
of which: grants
Primary (noninterest) expenditure
Automatic debt dynamics
Contribution from interest rate/growth differential
of which: contribution from average real interest rate
of which: contribution from real GDP growth
Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation
Other identified debt-creating flows
Privatization receipts (negative)
Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities
Debt relief (HIPC and other)
Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)
Residual, including asset changes
2011
Estimate
Average
2012
5/
Standard
Deviation
5/
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Projections
2013-18
2018
Average
2023
2033
142.8
142.7
10.0
10.0
11.7
11.7
17.1
17.1
23.4
23.4
28.0
28.0
32.6
31.6
36.9
35.0
38.8
36.1
38.3
32.6
32.4
25.2
-131.4
-37.6
-0.5
23.5
1.1
23.0
-3.9
-17.6
-2.8
-14.8
13.8
-33.2
0.0
0.0
-33.2
0.0
-93.8
-132.8
-133.0
0.4
26.4
2.8
26.9
-21.4
-11.7
-2.1
-9.6
-9.7
-112.0
0.0
0.0
-112.0
0.0
0.2
1.7
1.8
3.1
27.8
1.7
31.0
-1.3
-0.9
-0.1
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
5.4
4.8
5.9
27.3
2.4
33.2
-1.0
-0.9
0.0
-0.9
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
6.2
5.4
6.5
28.8
2.3
35.3
-1.1
-1.1
0.0
-1.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
4.6
3.9
6.0
27.6
1.8
33.6
-2.1
-1.5
-0.1
-1.4
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
4.6
4.2
6.5
26.0
1.6
32.5
-2.3
-1.8
-0.2
-1.6
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
4.3
4.7
6.1
28.7
4.3
34.8
-1.4
-1.9
-0.2
-1.7
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
1.9
0.2
2.6
28.2
4.3
30.8
-2.3
-2.6
-0.2
-2.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
-0.4
-1.6
0.6
27.9
4.3
28.5
-2.1
-2.2
0.0
-2.1
...
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
-1.3
-1.4
1.1
27.0
4.3
28.1
-2.5
-1.8
-0.1
-1.7
...
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
...
...
...
...
-0.3
…
…
…
0.9
...
...
...
...
0.9
…
…
…
1.6
9.5
9.5
7.9
...
3.6
34.1
36.3
30.2
1.8
12.0
12.0
10.6
...
6.4
44.0
48.3
42.7
1.9
15.0
15.0
13.8
...
7.1
52.1
56.7
51.9
2.4
17.0
17.0
16.1
...
6.9
61.8
66.1
62.4
3.4
19.6
18.6
17.8
...
7.4
75.6
80.6
73.0
3.6
22.0
20.1
19.3
...
7.2
76.8
90.3
79.1
3.7
23.3
20.6
19.8
...
3.7
82.5
97.2
82.7
3.9
24.2
18.6
18.0
...
1.8
86.6
102.3
76.2
4.6
21.7
14.6
14.3
...
2.5
80.5
95.6
63.1
5.0
1.0
130.9
1.8
133.2
1.9
1.4
2.1
0.5
2.6
0.2
3.6
1.4
3.8
1.9
4.4
1.8
4.6
0.6
5.4
1.0
5.9
2.5
5.7
0.0
3.0
5.4
0.4
0.1
...
7.2
0.1
-7.5
-7.4
11.4
0.2
...
8.5
1.1
-6.5
-4.7
9.7
0.3
...
8.6
1.4
-4.8
-0.9
6.0
0.2
46.9
6.9
1.2
...
...
4.3
0.1
48.0
6.4
1.0
...
...
7.6
0.0
48.2
6.1
0.9
...
...
6.8
0.0
50.2
5.6
0.8
17.1
...
3.3
0.1
52.3
7.1
0.8
11.2
...
4.2
-0.1
52.3
5.8
0.8
6.7
5.4
0.8
3.0
-0.3
2.1
5.6
2019-33
Average
0.9
Other S ustainability Indicators
PV of public sector debt
o/w foreign-currency denominated
o/w external
PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt)
Gross financing need 2/
PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent)
PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent)
o/w external 3/
Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/
Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/
Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio
Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions
Real GDP growth (in percent)
Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent)
Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent)
Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation)
Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)
Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)
Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent)
5.0
0.4
-5.8
-4.3
10.1
0.2
…
7.7
0.5
6.3
4.4
4.3
0.4
…
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ The public sector comprises the central government, the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), public enterprises and other official entities.
2/ Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
3/ Revenues excluding grants.
4/ Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
5/ Historical averages and standard deviations are derived over 2004/05 to 2009/10.
97 6.8
1.0
7.8
5.8
0.8
6.1
...
...
...
...
5.4
0.1
49.6
5.1
0.0
52.3
8.2
0.0
52.3
5.5
0.1
...
Table 4.Liberia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2013-2033
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
2013
2014
2015
Projections
2016
2017
2018
2023
2033
PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Baseline
A. Alternative scenarios
A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages
A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2013
A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/
B. Bound tests
B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2014-2015
B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2014-2015
B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks
B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2014
B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2014
PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/
Baseline
A. Alternative scenarios
A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages
A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2013
A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/
B. Bound tests
B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2014-2015
B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2014-2015
B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks
B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2014
B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2014
Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/
Baseline
A. Alternative scenarios
A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages
A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2013
A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/
B. Bound tests
B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2014-2015
B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2014-2015
B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks
B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2014
B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2014
12
15
17
20
22
23
24
22
12
12
12
8
14
16
5
16
19
1
18
23
-3
21
28
-4
25
31
-6
47
49
-8
79
109
12
12
12
12
12
19
10
10
19
25
28
8
7
19
26
36
12
13
20
29
44
14
19
22
31
49
16
23
23
32
69
18
37
25
31
93
17
53
24
26
44
52
62
76
77
82
87
80
44
44
44
29
50
54
16
59
68
4
71
89
-10
72
95
-13
89
109
-21
168
172
-28
293
380
44
44
44
44
44
66
36
34
64
87
101
31
25
68
96
137
45
51
78
110
147
49
65
77
108
169
56
80
81
113
239
64
129
88
112
335
65
194
87
98
2
2
3
4
4
4
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
4
2
3
4
1
4
4
0
4
5
1
7
8
-1
14
17
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
3
2
4
3
3
5
5
5
2
2
5
5
6
3
3
5
5
7
3
4
5
5
10
4
6
6
6
16
4
10
7
6
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation 98 divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
ANNEX 5: FRAGILITY AND RESILIENCE IN LIBERIA AND THE PROPOSED APPLICATION OF A
FRAGILITY LENS IN WBG OPERATIONS
INTRODUCTION
The following fragility and resilience analysis is based on the Liberian Agenda for
Transformation (AfT) and the analytical work done by the government to support it. Moreover, it
was informed by the Country-Led Fragility Assessment carried out for the New Deal in addition
to inputs from an analysis conducted by the Social Development Department (SDV) of the WB
in the period 2010-2011. The SDV analysis was deepened through consultations with Liberian
academics, civil society representatives and communities across seven counties in addition to
various pieces of analytical work from both inside and outside the Bank.
This analysis is based on the understanding that the stresses that can make a country fragile are
largely rooted in society. Therefore, to understand fragility it is important to recognize which
social groups exist, how these form and allocate resources (including power and respect), how
different groups relate to each other and how these groups and institutions interact. The focus of
this analysis is on identifying longer-term issues and trends that can affect or be affected by
development programming.
This document first analyses the sources of fragility and resilience in Liberia and their potential
impacts on development. Second, it provides a ‘Country Level Conflict and Fragility Filter’, i.e.
a set of questions aimed at identifying risks for the country portfolio that are related to conflict
and fragility. Finally, the paper outlines a process for applying the conflict lens to projects, as
well as sample questions on conflict and fragility for specific sectors.
A BRIEF HISTORIC OVERVIEW
Liberia was founded in 1822 by freed American slaves, supported by the American Colonization
Society who set up a system of governance largely modeled after the one of the United States.
For approximately the first century of Liberia’s existence, the settler community dominated the
country’s society and government. During this period, systems of governance and resource
extraction largely benefitted the settler community and formally excluded native populations.
The political dominance of the settler community came to an end with a coup organized by
Master Sergeant Samuel Doe from the Krahn tribe against then-President Tolbert in 1980. After
an unsuccessful coup attempt against him in 1985, Doe surrounded himself with people from his
own ethnic group. He alienated and sometimes persecuted and killed those who he believed were
from competing groups. Doe’s actions led to the start of the first Liberian Civil War in 1989.
The 1989 war began when Charles Taylor, launched a rebellion aimed at toppling Doe’s
government. Taylor also used ethnicity as a way to mobilize individuals, ultimately creating a
situation where many members of ethnic groups, targeted by Doe, mobilized against Doe’s
government, his ethnic group and other ethnic groups perceived to be allied with Doe.
President Doe’s assassination in 1990 by a former Taylor ally Prince Johnson, led to a power
struggle between Taylor’s National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL), Johnson’s Independent
National Patriotic Front of Liberia (INPFL) and supporters of former President Doe. The
99 fighting continued until the Abuja Accord in 1996. The first Liberian civil crisis left
approximately 200,000 Liberians dead and displaced a million others into refugee camps abroad.
The Abuja peace accords led to elections in mid-1997 that saw an overwhelming victory of
Charles Taylor, gaining 75 percent of the votes. Taylor dismissed many ethnic Krahn that had
been brought into public service by former President Doe. Moreover, he was accused for playing
a crucial role in the Sierra Leone civil war by supporting the rebellious Revolutionary United
Front (RUF).
A rebellion against Taylor that was initiated by the Liberians United for Reconciliation and
Democracy (LURD) in 1999 started the Second Liberian Civil War that left over 100,000
civilians dead and led to the displacement of up to 1 million Liberians. LURD invaded Liberia
from Guinea and was joined by various dissident groups mainly consisting of ethnic Mandingo
and Krahn. The involvement of the Sierra Leone RUF, which supported Taylor, led to a complex
three-way conflict with Guinea and Sierra Leone. The war ended with LURD declaring a
ceasefire, ECOWAS sending peacekeepers, and Taylor resigning in summer 2003.
SOURCES OF RESILIENCE
Liberians have now lived for 10 years without large scale conflict or violence. This time
threshold is very significant, as history has proven that about half of post-conflict states relapse
into violence within 10 years. The stability was in part a result of the relatively successful
implementation the first Liberian Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS 2008-2011), which
specifically focused on expanding peace and security as one of its four broad objectives. An
important condition for stability was the successful reestablishment of capable security
institutions, in particular the Armed Forces of Liberia (AFL) and the Liberia National Police
(LNP). The security provided by these institutions increased confidence in the state and allowed
the citizens of Liberia to return to their homes and farms, start businesses, and build up their
livelihoods. In fact, most of the internally displaced people and refugees could return to their
livelihoods or relocate within the country.
The process of national reconciliation was more complicated and the second poverty reduction
strategy, the Agenda for Transformation, 2012-2017 puts stronger emphasis on it. President
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has established the National Peace and Reconciliation Initiative, a new
commission, which drives the country’s reconciliation agenda and provides a forum for people to
air their grievances. Relations across groups have become more constructive and stable, as many
Liberians realize the importance of working together for advancing the country and each citizens’
future. Thus, the sustained peace and internal security is also partly connected to a newly found
resilience that is grounded on the peace dividend. As pointed out by the AfT, “Liberians have
been able to achieve a level of reconciliation that has allowed society to function peacefully”.
Resilience has also been fostered by Liberia’s economic growth. In the past years, Liberia’s
economy significantly recovered and poverty reduced; the proportion of population living below
the poverty line declined from about 63.8 percent in 2007 to 56 percent in 2010. This was
supported by improved macroeconomic stability, with inflation decreasing from 8.5 percent in
2011 to 6.2 percent in 2012, essentially balanced budgets and a significant reduction in external
100 debt. Significant support by international donors has played a major role; Liberia is one of the
countries the highest per capita official donor aid (ODA) in the world.
The Liberian government, supported by international donors and technical assistance, has also
had significant success in establishing basic governance mechanisms. A key priority of the
government’s transformation agenda has been to bring the state closer to the population and
improve the delivery of basic services. Surveys have revealed that in 2010, perception of many
Liberians was that the economic situation of their community was the same or better than a year
before and solely 8.9 percent of households perceived themselves as ‘poor’, down from 9.7
percent in 2007 (Liberia Poverty Note, 2012).
Another source of resilience is grounded in Liberia’s thriving civil society. Women in Liberia
have played a positive and prominent role. Women’s organizations or women-led organizations
are strong advocates against violence and in favor of tolerance. Their role was essential in peace
negotiations and continues to be in the present, with a large percentage of government
institutions and civil society organizations being led by women. Although this is more
pronounced in urban areas, women in rural areas also play a role in decision-making and
mediation of conflicts, often participating actively in the life of communities. In addition,
Liberians meanwhile enjoy a multi-party democracy that provides for political debate and is
based on typically high participation rates in elections. Finally, the country’s media landscape is
independent and vibrant.
Liberia’s government is committed to increasing the resilience of its society and it was evident in
the preparation and launching f the Agenda for Transformation. Liberia also endorsed the New
Deal for Engagement in Fragile States at the Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in
2011 and the government of Liberia is committed to move towards the New Deal’s five
Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals (PSG). However, the challenges are enormous consolidating gains, promoting more inclusive growth and addressing the underlying fragility
drivers that could lead to renewed conflict.
SOURCES OF FRAGILITY
Society divided along several fault lines
Liberia does not yet have a clear, shared national identity or a shared understanding of
citizenship. Key divisions between people of different cultures and ages are based on different
understanding of power, respect, and possession of wealth, as well as different interests. Four key
divisions underlie sources of fragility.

The history of the foundation of Liberia has led to a lack of understanding between
those of settler culture and those of native culture. Americo-Liberian settlers brought with
them the Christian religion, a US-inspired governance model as well as norms about appropriate
(‘civilized’) behavior. Native Liberians have largely kept their traditions, including their beliefs
about who should be given power and respect, their membership and support of traditional
societies, and their community governance practices. These two different cultures have different
forms of governance and support different ways of allocating resources, which has led to partial
mistrust between the communities and a lack of coherence between traditional and formal
structures. The history of government dominance by the settler community has also contributed
101 to a lack of trust, as many native Liberians continue to believe that the government supports the
interests of settlers.

Divisions also exist between native Liberian groups. Specifically, many challenge
whether the Mandingo ethnic group should be considered Liberians, claiming that many
Mandingo are from Guinea and should not have the same rights as other groups. Some of the
reasons for this divide are: (i) the traditional governance structures in many native communities
are tied to local cultural practices and the Mandingo do not follow these practices and (ii) the
Mandingo live all over Liberia and are not a majority in any one county. The questions over the
rights of the Mandingo have often led to conflicts over land; perceptions among the Mandingo
that they are discriminated by government officials that question their identity; and to other
conflicts in communities where the Mandingo live together with others.

There is also a divide between those considered ‘citizens’ and those considered
‘strangers.’ In many Liberian communities, there is a belief that those who are born in a
community and who descend from a specific family or ethnic group are ‘citizens,’ and that those
who are newcomers or descend a different family or ethnic origin are ‘strangers.’ Citizens and
strangers have different rights: many believe that community chief and elders must be citizens;
that land and other resources are allocated first to citizens and then to strangers; that the conflictresolution mechanisms rooted in the traditions of citizens are the ones that should be followed.
Although the division between citizens and strangers is often accepted in communities and is not
a source of fragility per se, it can become problematic if: (i) groups of strangers who stay in a
community for multiple generations and younger generations do not see themselves as strangers;
(ii) when conflicts arise between citizens and strangers and strangers do not believe conflict
resolution mechanisms are fair; and (iii) when resources are allocated in a way that do not seem
fair to one group or another.

There is a volatile division between youth and elders in Liberia. In Liberian society,
the concept of “youth” refers both to an age group and to persons that are not considered to be
decision-makers at the community level. In many cases, a young person who is considered to
have experience and knowledge is not considered a youth despite their age, while a person who
is older but is not regarded to have experience or knowledge remains a youth. Conflicts between
youth and elders can arise when: (i) the elders make decisions that are considered to be unfair
towards youth; or (ii) youth see that they will not be able to successfully make the transition into
becoming elders or decision-makers. This sense of injustice can and has led to violence and
trying to obtain power and respect in alternative ways, such as by joining armed groups or
engaging in criminal activities. The AfT specifically recognizes that inter alia “political
ostracism—especially of volatile youth—can cause crime, violence and political instability.”
The division between settlers and natives is related to a broader emerging division between
urban and rural areas. Wealth and power is concentrated in Monrovia, largely because
government is centralized and based in the capital city, as are most businesses. For much of
Liberia’s history, the service delivery has been better around Monrovia. Those from rural areas
who have been able to acquire education have therefore stayed in Monrovia, and many have
adopted urban customs and norms.
102 Weak institutions and lack of trust in the government
Although Liberia has made great strides in improving governance, the state still cannot
meet the needs and expectations of its citizens in terms of provision of services. While school
enrollment and health status has improved, social indicators and quality of services remain low.
Most Liberians have difficulties accessing justice; the perception among many is that the formal
justice system is in favor of those who can afford it. Therefore they entrust decisions to local
elders. However, young people or those that are not originally from community often have
difficulties obtaining justice from local elders. This sometimes leads to violence as the quickest
way to get a sense of justice.
The concentration of power in the Presidency reduces influence that local actors can have
on local decisions. The President of Liberia is responsible for the nomination of most formal
local officials, including mayors, county superintendents, and district commissioners. Also
paramount chiefs that are elected locally need the approval of the President. As pointed out by
the government’s 2012 New Deal Fragility Assessment, “Liberia will continue to be fragile until
it makes more concerted progress in reducing the divide between the center and the periphery”
(2012 New Deal Fragility Assessment).
The lack of understanding of the state institutions and perceived impunity of those thought
guilty of corruption have increased opposition to the government. The government has been
accused of not doing enough to eliminate corruption, which has led to multiple changes in the
Cabinet. A lack of understanding of the decisions making process has reinforced the perception
that government resources are only used to benefit those living in Monrovia or those from the
“home” areas of powerful politicians.
Legal pluralism and competing governance institutions often lead to misunderstandings
and could indirectly exacerbated conflicts. Several parts of the formal government officially
interact with traditional systems of governance: a key contact point between systems are town
chiefs, who represents both the state and local customs in a community, which often leads to
choosing the system that benefits them. This potentially results in unfair outcomes and in the
perception that the state cannot provide justice. Particularly, the considerable discrepancies of
norms with regard to land ownership and land transfer are a major source of conflicts.
Land-related conflicts are exacerbated by deficiencies in administration and arbitration
mechanisms as well as a plurality of partly competing regulations. Land conflicts are
aggravated by the lack of coherence between formal and traditional land use and dispute
resolution systems, the patchy implementation of the safeguards that exist for communities, and
the limited capacity of communities to exercise their rights. Moreover, land rights remain poorly
defined with many rural lands having overlapping and unresolved ownership. Poor record
keeping, lack of harmonization between statutory and customary land systems and limited access
to judicial services prevent the effective resolution of land disputes and land conflicts have been
cited as the most likely source of violence.
Continuing security concerns
As a result of large number of people suffering from the civil war trauma, there is a sense
of “normalization of violence” in Liberia. Sometimes, even small disagreements are settled
with violence and physical abuse. Sexual abuse is widespread, particularly in schools, a
103 phenomenon that has become known as “sex for grades.” Ongoing conflicts in communities
highlight the risk of “spill-overs” and renewed large-scale violence. Trauma transforms societal
relationships and can lead people to “isolate themselves” or to “harden distinctions”, hampering
social cohesion across group, which, in turn, could become a threat for peace in the long-term. Regional instability and related dynamics including widespread trafficking, displacement
and conflicts in neighboring countries pose security threats for Liberia. The West Africa
region as a whole remains fragile. A weak regional security system, especially along the border
with Cote d’Ivoire, have facilitated cross-border trafficking of arms and people. As pointed out
by the AfT, “Liberia has repeatedly seen evidence that regional instability quickly tends to spill
over, in terms of refugees and violence.” Indeed, approximately 65,000 Ivorian refugees still
remain displaced in the eastern part of Liberia, some of which are suspected to be armed
mercenaries.
Fragility and Resilience Lens Introduction
This section aims to provide guidance to the Liberia Country Team on how to ensure that the
country’s portfolio is strengthening resilience in Liberia and helping to put in place mitigation
measures to prevent fragility. Section 1 aims at providing guidance in the design of the country
portfolio; Section 2 provides an example of accounting for fragility and resilience in the design
and supervision of project activities, and Section 3 explains how a conflict lens will be
implemented throughout the portfolio.
SECTION 1: COUNTRY LEVEL GUIDANCE
The country team needs to answer four basic questions to understand whether or not its portfolio
is reducing the impact of drivers of fragility and building resilience:
1) Is the Bank portfolio benefitting the different social, political, and economic groups in
the country? Is there a perception that groups are getting their fair share?
2) Is the Bank’s portfolio helping to further strengthen the government’s capacity to deliver?
In particular, is Bank programming directly or indirectly helping to increase trust in the state?
3) Do Bank activities consider the factors that led to increased security in the country? Does
the Bank support increased security (through partnerships, AAA or projects)? Are activities in the
portfolio designed with an understanding of continued security risks in Liberia, and are there
specific efforts to ensure that Bank projects do not promote continued violence (GBV, domestic,
violence related to theft, etc.)?
The sections below outline more in-depth questions:
Addressing fragmentation of the society
Potential questions:
 Do Bank activities as a whole consult and include the opinions of a wide range of
stakeholders?
104  Are grievance redress mechanisms and participation mechanisms made so that they are
inclusive of the different social, political, and economic groups?
 Are there efforts made to communicate in appropriate forms and languages throughout
Liberia?
 Do projects benefit equally or fairly the different groups in the country?
Potential response: Consider communicating clearly to the whole population about priorities
and allocation of resources. Consider regular consultations throughout the CPS period to help see
if priorities of different groups have changed. Consider including grievance redress mechanisms,
participations mechanisms, and communications mechanisms in key projects that are designed to
include a wide range of stakeholders.
Strengthening institutions and building trust.
Potential Questions:
 Do Bank activities help increase the capacity of government? Consider whether too many
projects working with low capacity agencies overwhelm their capacity. Also consider direct
capacity building efforts and whether these are building longer-term capacities. Consider
whether salaries paid by projects are appropriate/sustainable.
 Are Bank activities perceived to be transparent? Consider access of beneficiaries to the
Bank, whether CSOs understand how to get access to documents, etc. Consider specific efforts
within projects to promote transparency and whether these are resulting in better understanding
of Bank initiatives.
 Do Bank activities promote mutual understanding between the state and citizens? Are
there mechanisms for citizens to provide feedback to the government in Bank projects? Does the
government make specific efforts to communicate with citizens in Bank projects? Are the
institutions supported by the Bank structured and staffed in a way that citizens understand, and
that facilitate the Government in providing services to citizens? Are civil servants working on
Bank projects held accountable for their performance? Consider whether the state is making an
effort to communicate with all citizens geographic distribution, age (youth vs. non-youth), local
minorities vs. majority (look at this at the community/local level, gender.
Potential response: Consider strengthening country systems and building state capacity to use
its own systems. Consider whether portfolio fragmentation reduces state capacity. (Reduce
projects if this is the case, balance whether potential beneficial effects on sectors justify
weakened overall state capacity due to overstretch.) Consider mainstreaming transparency and
citizen participation in all key projects. Understand the constraints for citizens to provide
feedback to the government on projects and design mechanisms that enable citizens to provide
feedback. Help the government design a strategy for communicating with citizens so that they
are aware of government activities and priorities, and such that citizens can provide inputs to
these activities and priorities. Engage government in policy dialogue on the design of relevant,
decentralized institutions.
Creating a more inclusive economy
Potential questions:
 Does job creation resulting from Bank interventions benefit those traditionally
excluded/vulnerable? Consider job creation projects as well as all jobs that come from Bank
105 projects, including consultants hired by projects, workers hired by contractors, etc.) Look at
geographic distribution (urban/rural, distance from Monrovia), age (youth vs. non-youth), local
minorities vs. majority (look at this at the community/local level – what percentage of those
benefiting are from the same ethnic group), gender.
 Does the Bank portfolio support sectors traditionally tied to the ‘concession’ economy? Are
these efforts balanced with efforts to support less exclusive economic activities? Consider the
tradeoffs between supporting sectors that provide income to the government vs. those that can
promote more equitable distribution of resources. Consider indirect support: i.e., do Bank
education/skills development efforts focus on providing skills for sectors that are part of the
concession economy? Do Bank governance efforts support more clarity/predictability for these
sectors vs. supporting the rights of communities?
 Will implementation of the Bank portfolio lead to the growth of sectors that are more
inclusive in the medium term?
Potential response: Prioritize activities that support inclusion/skills development of
vulnerable/excluded individuals to allow them to obtain jobs outside the concession economy.
Support directly sectors that have high growth potential outside the concession economy.
Support activities to ensure the concession economy is transparent and does not ‘do harm’, such
as by supporting the rights of local communities, promoting the transparency of land deals, etc.
Support to strengthening overall security and stability
Potential questions:
 Are beneficiaries of Bank projects safeguarded from security risks while participating in
project activities? Consider whether projects benefitting particularly vulnerable individuals, such
as women and children, increase their chance of being victims of violence. Consider specifically
projects in HD sectors, projects aiming to reduce corruption, projects working on land issues.
 Is the Bank adequately responding to regional instability by prioritizing the vulnerable
counties, including border areas?
Potential response: Consider including specific geographic areas that are more vulnerable in
project. Include information about violence in capacity-building efforts throughout the portfolio.
Monitor security risks to project beneficiaries and create mechanisms for getting feedback and
safeguarding them from violence. Ensure that those working on Bank-funded projects receive
information about gender-based violence, sexual exploitation and abuse.
SECTION 2: OPERATIONALIZING THE FRAGILITY LENS
This fragility “lens” continues to be fine-tuned and the CMU will continue to work with SDV
and the Nairobi Hub in preparing for its operationalization. Nevertheless, several measures can
be considered to advance the implementation of the Fragility Lens:
‐
Familiarizing sector staff with the fragility drivers so that TTLs have sufficient background
on the Liberian context as they begin to work on the Liberia portfolio. Annual combined
CPPRs/Country Team meetings will be used as a forum for this discussion and training. This
will ensure shared understanding with the Government counterparts that will help during
project implementation. The CMU will begin to organize these trainings together with the
106 staff from the Nairobi Hub and DC based staff working on Fragile and Conflict Affected
States.
‐
Preparation of sector specific questionnaires. The analysis would start at project concept
stage and inform project design;
implementation would be monitored as part of the
throughout the project life cycle. The project level fragility and resilience lens is meant to
provide an example of how the different issues presented apply at the project level. However,
every project will need to assess the issues individually since not all the fragility drivers
affect every project. Through consultative process, project teams should try to understand
how their projects could potentially decrease fragility and strengthen resilience. During midterm reviews, project teams could review their assessment and make adjustments if
necessary.
Sample Guide to a Fragility Analysis in Transport Operations

Do the policies, strategies and infrastructure promoted by the roads sector consider the existing divisions between
groups? Does the roads sector address the needs of the different groups (ethnic, gender, region, etc.)? Would there be real or
perceived gains by specific groups if these policies strategies and infrastructure were in place? How can policies, strategies
and infrastructure design be formulated to make relations between groups better or more equitable?

In what ways would the project affect access to and control of resources such as land, trade routes, and natural
resources across population groups? What would be likely outcomes of such access on the relationship between groups?

Will the roads project generate employment? Who will decide who will obtain employment? What mechanisms can
be put in place to ensure both short term benefits (in terms of employing those that could reignite violence) and long term
benefits (in terms of equity in employment benefits, management of expectations)? Is there competition for roads sector
employment? If so, what mechanisms are in place to ensure that jobs are distributed fairly?

Are there communications strategies in place that can make the process for decision-making regarding prioritization
of initiatives and job allocation transparent?

Will procurement of goods and services result in a specific social, ethnic, or geographically defined group benefitting
more than other groups? Are there mechanisms to ensure that those interested in providing these services have adequate
information and capacity to bid for these services? Is the process perceived as fair and transparent?
‐
The CMU, with the support of the Justice 4 Poor is preparing a strategic initiative proposal
for the State and Peace Building Fund and the Korean Trust Fund in order to address some of
the major cross-cutting fragility issues, in particular issues of conflict resolution, land and
youth employment/empowerment. The TFs can be used for: i) pilot activities to develop
lessons to inform IDA/IFC operations; ii) pilot activities to test innovative approaches that
can be scaled up; iii) mobilize urgent technical assistance; iv) set up matching grants for
resilience activities; iv) develop projects to address fragility and v) support strategic
interventions to influence portfolio or stand-alone projects.
‐
The operationalization of the Fragility and Resilience Lens will be coordinated by a
dedicated CMU staff that will work with a multi-sector team (including preparation of the
SPF proposal) in analyzing country situation, adapting project design and review process in
order to reflect and address fragility. Project concept notes and PADs will be required to have
a dedicated section on fragility and how their project addresses any relevant factors or, at
minimum, does not harm.
‐
The initial stages of the implementation process will be closely coordinated with CCSD and
Nairobi Hub.
107 ANNEX 6: DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIPS IN SUPPORT OF AGENDA FOR TRANSFORMATION FY 13-17
Energy
Roads
AfDB
China
EU
France
United
Kingdom
Germany
Ireland
Norway
Sweden
Japan
United
States
WBG
IMF
UN- UNDAF
108 Economic
Governance
Political
Governance
Water and
Sanitation
Pillar IV
Governance and Public
Institutions
Public Sector
Modernization
ICT
Social
Protection
Infrastructure
Health
Human Development
Education
Economic Transformation
Mineral
Development
Pillar III
Forestry
Pillar II
Agriculture
Food Security
Private Sector
Development
Judicial
Reform
Justice and
Rule of Law
Macroeconomi
c Issues
Partner
Peace and
Reconciliation
Security
Pillar I
Peace, Security and Rule of
Law
ANNEX 7: TRUST FUND PORTFOLIO
Trust Funds will continue to be a very important source of funding for the CPS period to
maximize the delivery of World Bank interventions on the ground. This Annex provides
information and a brief analysis of active and possible future trust funds supporting the World
Bank’s program in Liberia. In addition, there is a brief description of the infrastructure projects
supported by the largest multi-donor trust fund, the Liberian Reconstruction Trust Fund (LRTF),
which will continue to play a significant role in co-financing GoL priorities in the next five
years.
Current TF Portfolio. As of May 3rd, 2013, Bank systems report a total of 70 active trust funds
with a total net TF commitment of US$ 265,928.49 of which US $ 189, 613.43 is left to disburse.
These trust funds vary by user, source and purpose:
 23 projects will close in FY 13 and 14, providing an opportunity to consolidate and
strengthen on-going efforts to link most TFs to current or new WBG operations;
 14 of the 70 trust funds are managed by IFC, with the majority supporting their advisory
services for private sector development;
 53 (76 percent) are recipient executed, 15 (21 percent) are Bank executed and 2 are jointly
executed;
 Approximately 13 of 70 trust funds are being used to fund sector analytical work or
technical assistance thus complementing Bank budget or supplementing the country program.
Examples include the Security Sector PER, the IEG Country Program Evaluation and the DTIS
update;
 6 Institutional Development Grants are designed to build capacity in government agencies;
 10 child TFs are being used to cover supervision costs of major multi-donor trust funds
such as the LRTF, GPE and the GPOBA. Generally, there are two child TFs for each MDTF
funded project, one for the project itself and one for the corresponding supervision costs, thus
augmenting the number of total TFs in the portfolio.
Going forward, increased attention will be given to ensure that the trust fund portfolio is
consolidated and directly linked to the CPS strategic themes and lending program. This will
reduce fragmentation arising from the multiplicity of small trust-funded activities which in the
previous CAS period, was very resource-intensive to manage, given the lack of capacity in the
ministries and the additional burden of reporting and other administrative overhead. Since the
JCAS progress report, greater effort has been made to link trust funds with IDA operations, given
the limited IDA budget, relative to the needs of reconstruction and capacity building in the
country. Greater consolidation of the TF portfolio will also be achieved by invoking management
authority to not approve new TF proposals unrelated to the highest strategic priorities of the
country program.
109 A number of Trust Funds are directly linked to current WBG operations or support evidence
based analytical work and plays catalytic role for the GoL and development partners.
Net
Commitme
nt in US
millions
Major Active TFs in Liberia
The State and Peace-building Fund to supports3 initiatives related to civil service
reform and work with the Ministry of Justice (MOJ) “to increase citizen access to
alternative dispute resolution.”
The Nordic Trust Fund for the Justice for the Poor program on justice and natural
resource governance.
The Global Partnership for Education Catalytic Fund is the primary source of Bank
support to improved access and quality in primary education.
The multi-donor Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund supports major priority
infrastructure projects.
Institutional Development Grants (6) for capacity building activities in various
government agencies.
MDTF to implement public financial management reform
Health Results Innovation Trust Fund (HRITF) grant to pilot results based financing.
The Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction for climate change adaptation,
community resilience, and disaster risk reduction.
The GPOBA (Global Partnership on Output-Based Aid) to finance electricity
connections for poor rural households in Monrovia.
The global multi-donor Water and Sanitation Program (WSP) to finance a water and
sanitation investment plan sector plan and strengthen institutional capacity in the sector.
FCP REDD+ Readiness Grant
Africa Catalytic Growth Fund is supporting the Youth Employment Services program
Umbrella Facility for Gender Equality (UFGE) to continue EPAG (Economic
Empowerment of Adolescent Girls) Initiative of the Ministry of Gender
Linked to
current
WBG
Operations
Building
Evidence
Base for
Partners


0.25


40

179.3

2.4

18.95
6.0
0.54





10.5


0.74


3.6


10.0
1.86




7
Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund (LRTF). The Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund was
established as a World Bank-administered, multi-donor trust fund to pool donor resources and
support the Government of Liberia in improving country’s basic infrastructure. The Oversight
Committee (OC) is responsible for overseeing and supervising the performance of the LRTF. The
OC meets on a regular basis and is co – chaired by IDA and the Government. The OC comprises
representatives of the Government and Donors (World Bank, European Union, Sweden, Norway,
Germany, Ireland and United Kingdom). The OC acts collectively and, to the extent practicable,
makes decisions by consensus. Going forward, the GoL has endorsed the LRTF as their preferred
financing mechanism for major infrastructure projects, especially transport, energy and ICT.
110 LRTF status as of January 31, 2013, in US million)
Contributions
Received Cash Contributions
156,894,081
Investment Income
2,724,707
Total Receipts (Note 1)
159,618,7883
Future Cash Contributions as per signed Administration Agreements
(Note 2)
Total LRTF
Approx
19,476,750
Approx. $179,095,538
Project Commitments
EMUS
($18,400,000.00)
URIRP
($9,200,000.00)
URIRP II (Additional Financing)
($27,000,000.00)
LIBRAMP
($108,900,000.00)
Total project commitments
($163,500,000.00)
LRTF Administration and Projects Preparation and Supervision Costs
LRTF Administration
(75,127)
Total Non-Project Disbursement – Admin Costs (Note 3)
(1,538,941)
EMUS Appraisal and Supervision
(926,486)
URIRP I Supervision and II Supervision
(286,810)
LIBRAMP Supervision
(1,117)
Total Costs
(3,504,481)
Available amount for future commitments
12,091,0572
Note 1: This amount includes all donor contributions to date plus investment income (US$2,724,707). The first tranche
of the European Commission (EC) for EUR 30 million (US$39,807,000) and the additional contribution by KfW for
EUR 25 million (US$33,110,500 million) were deposited in December, 2010. A DfID contribution of GBP 5 million
(US$7,850,000) was deposited in December 2011 and the second tranche of the European Commission (EC) for EUR
15 million (US$19,830,000) in January, 2012. GBP 1.75 million was received from DfID on May 29th, 2012. This
report also includes the new Sida contribution of SEK 49,000,000; whose administration agreement amendment was
signed on November 5, 2012.
Note 2: This amount represents the EUR 15 million pending from the European Union.
Note 3: This includes the Administration Cost Recovery Fee, as per the Administration Agreements, Annex 2 and
paragraph 3.
The LRTF currently supports three projects: the Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation
(EMUS), the Urban and Rural Infrastructure Reconstruction Project (URIRP), and the Liberia
Road Asset Management Project (LIBRAMP).
Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation (EMUS) project. EMUS project is co-financed by
LRTF (US$ 18.4 million) and IDA (US$ 4 million). The objective of project is to assist the
Monrovia City Corporation (MCC) to provide solid waste services and increase the volume of
collected and disposed waste. The solid waste collection and disposal component provides
111 technical assistance to strengthen both primary collection through community- based
organizations (CBEs) and secondary collection system in addition to a state of the art land fill
center located outside Monrovia. The project, which is now 99 percent disbursed, also provides
technical assistance to MCC in order to strengthen the city’s capacity to administrate revenue
administration, financial management, and the technical oversight related to the provision of
solid waste services in Monrovia. The project is progressing well and, on average, 320 tons of
waste is being collected every day, which is close to the end-of project target of 330t/day. MCC
obtained additional funding from the Gates Foundation, which allowed increasing the number of
CBEs, to cover about 70 percent of the city of Monrovia and employ approximately 900 people.
LRTF members are now considering a US $ 7.2 additional finance which would extend EMUS
Project 2 years and allow scaling up a successful program.
Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project (URIRP). URIRP I initially was
financed by LRTF. US$9.2 million) to rehabilitate 15 km section of road to Buchanan (the
second largest city in Liberia). Additional financing from LRTF of (US $ 27 million) and IDA
(US$ 20 million) are financing the rehabilitation of the remaining portion of the Buchanan road
as well as the construction of a new 130m length bridge over the Mechlin River. The contractor
has employed over 740 Liberian staff, of which 85 percent are from the local communities and is
investing in training local communities in skilled and semi- skilled jobs.
Liberian Road Asset Management Project (LIBRAMP). LIBRAMP is co-financed by initial
IDA credit (UD$ $67.7 million) and by LRTF grant (US$108.9 million), in addition to a
government contribution of US$72.8 million. On September 18th, 2012, IDA additional
financing (US$ 50 million) was approved, bringing the total project cost to US$299.4 million.
The objective of LIBRAMP is to support the Liberian Government’s efforts to reduce transport
costs along the road corridor from Monrovia to the Guinea border, one of the principal trade
routes of the country. The major component entails t h e design,
rehabilitation
and
maintenance for 10 years of the Monrovia (Red Light) Ganta-Guinea border road, a total of 249
kilometers. The additional financing will scale up the road construction work and help to design
a multi-modal transport plan along with the Strategic Investment plan for transport sector. The
project also supports building capacity in the Ministry of Public Works in areas of in contract
management, performance and environmental monitoring and comprehensive road asset
management.
112 Trust Fund Name
Net Grant
Amount
(in US$
thsd)
Trust
Fund #
TF010460
TF010544
TF010792
TF011128
TF011297
TF011340
TF011498
TF011571
TF011753
TF011962
TF012105
TF012355
TF012390
TF012429
TF012449
TF012454
TF012494
TF012530
TF012541
TF012608
TF012746
TF012915
TF012983
TF013107
TF013160
TF013252
TF013274
TF013471
TF013497
TF013786
TF013809
TF013840
TF013882
TF013989
Africa Schools Liberia
Liberia; Public Expenditure Review of the Security Sector
Liberia: Strengthening Governance - Civil Service Reforms
Vulnerable Youth: Enhancing Economic and Social Resilience
GPOBA: Liberia Monrovia Improved Electricity Access Project
Liberia: Strengthening Governance - Improving Access to Justice and
Enhancing Accountability
Liberia Country Program Evaluation (CPE)
Liberia HRITF Impact Evaluation
GPOBA W3 SUP Liberia Electricity Access
Additional Financing for Liberia Electricity System Enhancement Project
: Lighting Lives in Liberia
Liberia Will Rise Again Diaspora Engagement Program
Liberia Integrated Public Financial Management Reform Multi-Donor
Trust Fund - Enhanced Supervision
Liberia Integrated Public Financial Management Reform Multi Donor
Trust Fund Program
Liberia Road Asset Management Project - Supervision Budget
PPIAF LIBERIA: Developing Cost Recovery Mechanisms in Private
Sector Provision of Solid Waste Management
Program Management and administration for Liberia Int. Public Financial
Management
Strengthening Accountancy Program at the University of Liberia
Liberia FCPF Readiness Grant
Liberia PAC Capacity Building Project
Adolescent Girls Unit, Ministry of Gender and Development
Technical Assistance for EPAG scale-up
Liberia Youth Employment Skills Project (YES) - P121686 (FY13 SPN
Budget)
Liberia - Post-Basic Education: Diagnostic Notes and Higher Education
Strategic Plan (Phase III)
Liberia Gender and Private Sector Development
Liberia HRBF design - Bank executed
Secured Transactions Registry
Liberia HRBF design - Recipient executed
Liberia - MDB Programming Funds
Liberia: Strengthening Disaster Risk Management in Liberia (GFDRR:
ACP/EU W2)
Liberia _DTIS Update
Liberia: Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young Women,
Round 3 Activities
Liberia Insolvency and Debt Recovery Project
Liberia PSD Strategy & Dialogue
Communities and Natural Resource Governance in Liberia
113 Program
Source
Grant
Closing
Date
Donor Name
300.00
130.00
2,000.00
240.00
10,000.00
IFC
FCP
SPBF
RSR
GPOBA
6/30/2014
7/31/2013
3/30/2014
6/30/2013
6/16/2014
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
IFC
1,500.00
100.00
1,500.00
497.71
SPBF
IEGE
HRBF
GPOBA
3/31/2014
12/31/2012
12/30/2017
1/31/2015
MULTIPLE DONORS
NORAD
MULTIPLE DONORS
IFC
1,454.54
443.00
GEFIA
IDF
12/31/2014
1/31/2016
MULTIPLE DONORS
IBRD
250.00
AFRQK
6/30/2016
MULTIPLE DONORS
6,993.56
300.00
AFRQK
LRTF
6/30/2016
6/14/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
PPIAF
6/30/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
AFRQK
IDF
FCPFR
IDF
IDF
GENTF
ACGF
6/30/2016
6/29/2015
5/30/2015
8/3/2015
11/14/2015
6/30/2014
6/30/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
IBRD
MULTIPLE DONORS
IBRD
IBRD
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
118.89
NPEF
12/31/2012
200.00
310.00
500.00
850.00
186.60
544.50
IFC
HRBF
IFC
HRBF
CSCFIA
GFDRR
6/30/2013
6/30/2013
6/30/2014
6/30/2015
10/31/2014
6/30/2016
190.00
1,856.33
EIF
GENTF
8/20/2013
5/30/2014
Norway - Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
EU-Commission of the
European Communities
(UNOPS)
MULTIPLE DONORS
IFC
IFC
NTF
2/28/2015
2/28/2015
11/30/2014
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
368.95
117.78
466.00
3,600.00
361.20
169.28
200.00
90.00
50.00
300.00
125.00
TF014274
TF014334
TF014351
TF014486
TF014656
TF091742
TF099452
TF099512
Liberia SME Conference
Trade Facilitation Trust Fund
RSPO Liberia
Supervision of EPAG round 3 activities
Strengthening the Framework for Results-Based Management in Liberia
LRTF ADMINISTRATION
GEF MSP - LIBERIA: GRANT FOR CONSOLIDATION OF LIBERIA
PROTECTED AREA NETWORK PROJECT (COPAN)
FOOD PRICE CRISIS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY SUPPORT
LIBERIA: GRANT FOR THE ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT OF
ADOLESCENT GIRLS
Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation Project (EMUS)
EMUS APPRAISAL AND SUPERVISION
Land Sector Reforms: Rehabilitation and Reform of Land Rights
Registration Project
AFREA - Liberia Rural Energy (Phase 1)
LIBERIA - Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project Supervision Budget
Youth, Employment, Skills Project
Liberia - Basic Education Project
The Liberian Institute of Certified Public Accountants (LICPA)
Biodiversity Conservation through Expanding the Protected Area
Network in Liberia (EXPAN)
Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project
Liberia FTI Grant Supervision Fund
Support to development of small forest enterprises income generation for
Youth in Liberia
Liberia 10056 Capital Markets Strategy and Legal and Regulatory
Framework
Conflict Affected States in Africa/ Liberia Commercial Court & Code
AGI: Liberia - Grant for the Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls
Liberia: Electricity System Enhancement Project
Republic of Liberia: Strengthening National Account and Price Statistics
Project
Business Operations Liberia
IC program management & support Liberia
Public-Private Dialogue Liberia
Tax Administration Liberia
Trade Logistics Liberia
Liberia: PFM Strengthening and Reform Coordination Project
Liberia: # NBFI Regulatory and Supervision Framework
Support to development of small forest enterprises income generation for
Youth in Liberia
Investment Generation Liberia
TF099588
Liberia Road Asset Management Project
TF092010
TF092332
TF092541
TF094060
TF094143
TF094864
TF095174
TF095343
TF097110
TF097456
TF097529
TF097657
TF098040
TF098114
TF098381
TF098561
TF098612
TF099015
TF099017
TF099092
TF099376
TF099377
TF099378
TF099379
TF099380
TF099405
TF099432
75.00
45.00
50.00
50.00
100.00
844.00
IFC
TFF
IFC
GENTF
FCP
LRTF
6/30/2013
8/30/2013
2/28/2013
5/30/2014
8/31/2013
8/31/2020
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
750.00
3,000.00
GEFIA
GFCRP
11/30/2012
10/31/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
IBRD
3,108.07
18,400.00
1,100.00
GENTF
LRTF
LRTF
12/31/2012
12/31/2013
12/31/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
2,982.00
1,531.39
SPBF
ESMAP
4/30/2013
3/31/2014
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
370.00
10,000.00
40,000.00
463.15
LRTF
ACGF
EFAFTI
IDF
6/30/2014
6/30/2013
6/29/2015
12/6/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
IBRD
950.00
27,000.00
347.30
GEFIA
LRTF
EFAFTI
6/30/2014
6/30/2014
12/31/2013
20.00
ICHYAO
12/31/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
Italy - Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
229.10
9.25
2,044.61
2,000.00
FIRST
IFC
GENTF
ESMAP
12/31/2013
2/28/2013
4/2/2013
12/31/2013
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
400.00
320.00
800.00
500.00
1,000.00
560.00
495.00
300.40
TFSCB
IFC
IFC
IFC
IFC
IFC
IDF
FIRST
9/5/2013
2/28/2015
2/28/2015
2/28/2015
2/28/2015
2/28/2015
6/30/2014
9/30/2013
ICHYAO
IFC
12/31/2013
2/28/2015
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
MULTIPLE DONORS
IBRD
MULTIPLE DONORS
Italy - Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
MULTIPLE DONORS
LRTF
6/30/2020
MULTIPLE DONORS
380.00
490.88
108,900.00
Total
265,928.49
114 ANNEX 8: WOMEN AND YOUTH IN LIBERIA
Women
Legal framework: The legal framework in Liberia provides strong equal protection measures
for men and women under the law. Liberia is the first African nation to develop a National
Action Plan (LNAP) for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1325. Liberia
has had a National Gender Policy since 2009, a Rape Law which explicitly defines rape as a
criminal act since 2006, and an inheritance law that establishes equal rights of inheritance since
2003. In 2008, the Government passed a new Domestic Relations Law, which sets the minimum
legal age for marriage at 18 years for women and 21 years for men. A Children’s Law passed in
2011 instituted a birth registration system that will facilitate efforts to provide basic social
services to vulnerable populations the law also established education, health, and freedom from
exploitation and abuse as rights for male and female children. Liberia received a UN award in
2010 for its commitment and progress toward achieving MDG 3 (Gender equity and women’s
empowerment).
Nevertheless, various reports have found uneven and incomplete implementation of these strong
gender laws,12 especially outside Monrovia. The limited success in enforcing statutory laws is
often due to inadequate resource for enforcement or a failure to appreciate the importance of
non-formal customary laws. For example, while current land laws strongly protect women’s land
rights, most people’s primary access to land is through customary tenure, which remains
discriminatory toward women.
Political participation. Although women’s representation in the legislature fell in the 2011
elections to just 12.5 percent (down from 14 percent in the previous term), women play an active
role in the country’s politics. Women’s participation in the executive branch is somewhat higher
than in the legislature, with 24 percent of cabinet positions and the Presidency. The Ministry of
Gender and Development (MOGD) takes the lead in implementing policies and reforms, tracking
progress on women’s issues, and implementing a limited number of stand-alone interventions.
Attention to gender within the Government of Liberia has grown impressively, both across
ministries (through gender focal points and inter-ministerial coordinating bodies) and down to
the county level, where 33.6 percent of county superintendents are women.
A thriving civil society, including many active women’s groups often supported by international
donors, continue to exert influence in areas of peace-building, SGBV, voter registration, land
rights, and economic empowerment. However, the persistent inequalities between Monrovia and
the rest of the country, as well as between Americo-Liberians and indigenous Liberians, apply
equally well to women, with women from up-country areas experiencing lower rates of inclusion
and access to service delivery, economic opportunities and political power than their urban and
Americo-Liberian counterparts.
1
2
The Africa Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). “Addressing Sexual and Gender Based Violence in Liberia”.
Conflict Trends, Issue 3, 2009.
USAID “Gender Assessment- Liberia”. May 2009. 115 Poverty and Employment. Although recent poverty analysis3 does not suggest any significant
differences in poverty rates between male- and female-headed households, women tend to have
unequal access to employment and other economic opportunities. The 2010 Labor Force Survey
(LFS), which asked about a broad range of economic activities, found only small differences in
labor force participation for men and women (50.6 percent for men and 46.5 percent for women).
The LFS also found that although women have roughly equal rates of employment as men, they
are very under‐represented in terms of paid employment; only 24 percent of paid jobs are held by
women. Furthermore, the graph below shows that labor force participation rates diverge for men
and women at about age 30 and never come back together.4 In terms of occupational segregation,
women are overrepresented in the informal non-agriculture sector and are significantly
underrepresented in key emerging areas of the Liberian economy such as mining, construction,
manufacturing and services. Data from the 2010 LFS suggest that women earn substantially less
than men across most sectors.
Source: 2010 LFS
Education. Levels of education and literacy in Liberia are extremely low for everyone, but only
marginally worse for females than males (see Table 1). A recent Public Expenditure Review
conducted by the World Bank5 found that the gender gap in access to all levels of education is
narrowing and that Liberia is likely to meet the MDG of gender parity in access to primary and
secondary education by 2015. Liberia is one of ten countries globally that showed significant
progress towards gender parity in primary enrollment. Even in higher education, female students
are quickly catching up with their male counterparts, registering a six percentage point increase
between 2009/10 and 2011/12, from 33 percent to 39 percent.
Girls’ enrolment percentage by level of schools (%)
Pre-primary
Primary
Junior High
Senior High
48.0
46.5
43.5
41.8
Source: Baseline Statistics for Gender, MOGD 20116
3
The World Bank. “Poverty Note: Tackling the dimensions of poverty”. June 2012.
From page 27 of the Report of the 2010 Labor Force Survey. Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo‐ Information Services (LISGIS).
5
The World Bank. Liberia Social Sector’s Public Expenditure Review. Report No. 70980-LR. June 2012.
6
Ministry of Gender and Development (MOGD) and Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo‐ Information Services (LISGIS). “Report on Baseline
Statistics on Gender”. 2011.
4
116 In spite of the positive trends in school enrolment, various challenges confront girls in particular
in getting an education. Because many rural schools end at Grade 3, families often need to send
students to Monrovia or to a larger town to continue their schooling at the secondary and even
upper primary levels, often putting girls in particular into vulnerable and exploitative living
situations. A second challenge is the apparently widespread phenomenon of teachers exchanging
grades for sexual activities,7 which has been widely reported in the press. There is also some
evidence89 that participation in the traditional initiation rites associated with secret "Sande"
societies frequently lead to disruption or even early termination of girls' schooling, especially
when the two are scheduled concurrently, complicated by the fact that Sande activities
sometimes extend for months or even years.
Finally, female adult illiteracy is high at 59 percent, compared to 31.4 percent of men.
Although a Girls Education Policy has been under implementation since 2007, no policy to
address gender gaps in adult illiteracy exists, nor do sector policies seem to identify adult
illiteracy as a priority.
Maternal health and fertility. Fertility rates have decreased from 6.2 in 2000 to 5.2 children per
woman in 2007, but remain above the average for sub-Saharan Africa in spite of increasing
access to family planning services. High maternal mortality, low contraceptive use, widespread
early marriage and high adolescent fertility continue to pose challenges not only to women’s
health, but also to poverty reduction efforts, as high fertility leads to larger households, which
tend to be poorer. However, analysis suggests that secondary education in particularly is
associated with delayed marriage and lower fertility in Liberia, indicating that as access to
secondary education improves, fertility rates may decline more rapidly.10
Maternal mortality in particular continues to pose a grave threat in Liberia; at 770 deaths
per 10,000 births,11 Liberia’ maternal mortality ratio is among the highest in the world. Most
stakeholders agree that Liberia is unlikely to achieve MDG 5 (improved maternal health) by
2015. Limited access to transportation and cultural norms of when to seek care are frequently
cited as primary obstacles for women to receive pre-natal and delivery care at health facilities.
SGBV. In spite of the strong legal protections for women, sexual and gender-based violence
(SGBV) remains astonishingly common in Liberia. Data from the 2007 Demographic and Health
Survey (DHS) found that 44 percent of women aged 15–49 have experienced physical violence
and up to 29 percent had experienced violence in the 12 months prior to the survey. Another 18
percent had experienced sexual violence, including forced sexual initiation. For women and girls,
the threat of violence impedes their movement for economic, educational and civic activities:
qualitative assessments have found that young women frequently cite potential sexual
harassment from employers as a significant barrier to labor market entry. Government policies
and programs to address SGBV include a specialized Women and Children’s unit in the Liberian
National Police (LNP), a rape law and specialized court for sexual crimes since 2006, various
monitoring and reporting efforts including a national GBV database maintained by the MOGD, a
new children’s law, widespread Prevention of Sexual Abuse and Exploitation (SEA) campaigns
7
UNICEF “Situation of Women and Girls in Liberia”. 2012., p. 78.
UNICEF “Situation of Women and Girls in Liberia”. 2012., p. 83.
9
The World Bank. Liberia Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young Women Project: Girls’ Vulnerability Assessment. 2008.
10
The World Bank. “Poverty Note: Tackling the dimensions of poverty”. June 30, 2012.
11
World Health Organization. “Estimate of Trends in Maternal Mortality”. 2012. p.34
8
117 and awareness programs in schools. Several donors (including the Norwegian Refugee Council
and the Carter Center) have coordinated efforts to provide training to police, legal professionals,
and health professionals on how to handle SGBV cases.
Efforts to encourage survivors to report rape appear to be working: the LNP indicates that
rape is the most frequently reported violent crime. However, although access to justice has much
improved in Monrovia, with the help of the specialized rape court and free legal aid clinics, the
lack of infrastructure and courts in rural areas prevent many women from turning to the formal
legal system. Instead, informal institutions such as the "Peace Huts" set up by the NGO WIPNET
or traditional “Palava” huts remain the means of choice for many women to address not just
SGBV but also a wide variety of legal issues. When they do report their crimes to the dedicated
Women and Children's Section of National Police, too often the LNP lacks the resources to
investigate or to pass the case along to the justice system.12
Bank program. The World Bank has a good track record of addressing gender-related issues
throughout its portfolio, particularly in the realm of women’s economic empowerment. The 2009
JCAS highlighted gender as a cross-cutting theme and included strong commitments to
integrating gender into operations, on which the Bank delivered. The Bank’s internal gender
team (PRMGE) rated at least 50 percent of the operations in Liberia as "gender-informed" for
FY10 and FY11. The 2009 JCAS was also explicit about being selective in its focus and largely
avoided entering new sectors. With that in mind, the Bank focused its gender work on economic
empowerment issues, including tailored interventions such as the donor-funded Economic
Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young Women (EPAG) project and the UN-Womenfunded Results Based Initiative. Through these initiatives, as well as a variety of technical and
advisory services to Liberia’s Ministry of Gender and Development (MoGD), the Bank has
developed a visible presence in Liberia in the area of women’s economic empowerment.
In the new CPS cycle, the Bank will continue and seek to build upon this strong track
record. Gender remains a cross-cutting issue in the new CPS and several measureable genderrelated indicators are in the results matrix. The CPS will seek to broaden the gender equality
focus to other sectors while remaining aligned with the Government’s PRS and keeping in mind
the Bank’s comparative advantages and the Government’s limited implementation capacity. In
addition, the Bank will continue to offer technical support and advisory services to MoGD,
especially the new Adolescent Girls Unit, supported by an IDF grant.
In developing operations for the new CPS cycle, Bank teams can draw upon various genderintegrated diagnostic studies conducted by development partners, including a 2009 Gender
Assessment conducted by USAID, a 2012 UNICEF study on women and children, a 2012
Women’s Land Rights Study sponsored by USAID, and a Gender Profile from the African
Development Bank that is in progress. In addition, the Bank itself has prepared a number of
recent studies that can inform future operations, including a recent gender-informed Poverty
Note, a study on the Human Opportunities Index (HOI) in Liberia, a qualitative gender
assessment, a study on Societal Dynamics and Fragility in Liberia, and recent work on Youth
Exclusion and Youth Violence in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
12
The Africa Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). “Addressing Sexual and Gender Based Violence in Liberia”.
Conflict Trends, Issue 3, 2009. 118 Youth
Defining youth. The government of Liberia officially defines youth as individuals between the
ages of 15 and 35 years. The twenty years age range of the youth category is meant to
accommodate those young people who have missed educational and development opportunities
during the fourteen-year civil war. The reverse effect of such a broad age range is that it makes
the category of youth rather sizable and diverse. Youth constitutes a third of the total population
and nearly half of the total labor force in Liberia. Youth problems are therefore national
problems.
Individual expectations and life experiences of young people on different spectrums of the
youth continuum vary significantly. The population of Liberia distinguishes the “younger
youth,” those between the ages of 15 and 24 years and the “older youth,” those in the upper
range of the youth category. Younger youth are expected to pursue their education and contribute
to community work. Their participation in community decision-making processes is rather
limited. Unemployment is notably higher in this age range than in any other age category.13
Older youth take on significantly more responsibilities in their families and communities. Almost
a quarter of young people between the ages of 25 and 35 do not describe themselves as youth14.
Age is only one of several features that determine who is considered youth in Liberia.
Physical characteristics, degree of responsibilities, socio-economic status and, most importantly,
the type of work an individual does puts one in the category of youth. Community work –
cleaning, refurbishing community roads and infrastructure, and building new structures – is the
main responsibility of youth and is often unpaid or compensated with a meal. As long as an
individual partakes in such work, despite one’s age, he or she is considered and treated as
youth15. Financial stability, family ties and social standing can expedite or, on the contrary,
impede one’s graduation from the category of youth.
Within this fluid understanding of youth, age becomes simply a nominal attribute. By
spending more time with non-youth, assuming more responsibilities beyond community work,
and caring for other people, a young person can transition into adulthood. With such a change in
one’s social status, youth acquire not only more responsibilities, but also more access to
community resources and other opportunities. Youth is viewed as a stage of life and limitations
that come with it are treated as expected and temporary. It is the inability to make the transition
to adulthood due to lack of socio-economic opportunities and perception of unjust treatment that
contributes to fragility and may drive rates of violence in Liberia.
Employment. The rates of unemployment, particularly among youth, are exceptionally high in
Liberia. Only 11 percent of young people have salaried positions. Youth recognize that their lack
of skills, low education level, and relevant experience are impediments to employment.
Youth employment statistics do not reveal a broader picture of youth economic
participation, however. Youth constitute a significant part of an informal economy that sustains
many people in Liberia. A majority (91 percent) of youth works in non-wage or salary positions,
compared with 77 percent of those aged 35-64. 29 percent of youth work as a contributing family
member compared with the older cohort (11 percent). Youth engage in commercial motorbike
riding, petty trading or casual labor such as assisting with farming or gardening.
13
Liberia Labor Force Survey, 2010
World Bank (forthcoming), The study on youth exclusion and youth violence.
15
In the study “Youth exclusion and youth violence in Liberia and Sierra Leone,” 11% of those older than 35 years, describe themselves as youth,
because they continue associate with youth and engage in community work. 14
119 Generational shifts in employment patterns show that young people are much less likely to
work in government jobs and instead work in public/state-owned and non-farm enterprises
(construction, bank, private hospital/school, restaurant, etc.). With respect to location of
work, youth tend to work less in factories/office workshops/shops, and more in farms or
agricultural plots, market/bazaar and street stalls, or have a mobile work location. Such fluidity
in the physical location of work is likely to contribute to youth vulnerability and the generally
unstable work environment for youth.
The overall attitudes and views to what constitutes a job may contribute to the perception
of unemployment in Liberia. Youth aspire to salaried office jobs that are associated with more
economic stability and social status. Other types of jobs, such as, for example, farming or
unskilled labor positions are not held to the same regard and are not considered to be a “true”
employment option. Expanding a notion of a job/employment in the population may help deal
with the employment fragility in the context of a disproportionately large youth cohort and a
slow economic growth that is unable to sufficiently meet youth employment needs.
Geographical Location and Household Income. Young people, especially women, tend to live
in Monrovia and other urban areas. But it is the young men who are disproportionately poor.
Men tend to be the heads of household and to provide for a number of people and even families.
An analysis of household income shows that a much larger share of young men who head a
household belongs to the poorest two quintiles (45 percent) than women (34 percent). An even
sharper gender disparity is evident when considering geographical location, with rural male
heads of a household faring much worse economically than their urban counterparts. Despite
high rates of youth unemployment and poverty, youth largely do not believe themselves to be
poor. Almost 45 percent of youth describe their economic status as average (neither rich nor
poor)16.
Education. Basic education attainment is on the rise, but 1/5 of the population still does not have
an opportunity to attend school and gender gap persists. While young women have attained
primary education on par with their male counterparts, a much larger share have no education
(35 percent versus 16 percent) and they especially lag behind in attainment of higher education.
Illiteracy remains higher among women. Lack of financial means is the main reasons for students
to drop out. For female youth, it is marriage and child rearing that force them out of schools and
prevent them from returning back later in life.
The barriers to education have changed over time: cultural norms are less of a constraint,
particularly for female youth, but economic hurdles persist and youth disengagement from
schooling is on the rise. Perhaps the most disconcerting issue on hand is that a growing share of
youth appears who have no interest in school. Despite the fact that youth recognize the
importance of education in securing jobs and improving their life situation, lack of employment
opportunities and a strong believe that personal connections are more important for finding a job
fosters apathy among youth and devalues education in Liberia. The disillusioned outlook of
young people towards education and its role in improving their livelihoods is a common
phenomenon in countries where access to education, along with the school-to-work transition,
has not kept up with the relevance of and quality improvements in curriculum, skills training and
pedagogy.
16
World Bank (Forthcoming). The study on youth exclusion and youth violence in Liberia.
120 Community Participation and Decision-making. The category of youth implies a limited
participation in the community, outside of community work, and decision-making process. It is
with the transitioning to the category of adult or elder that one is granted more responsibilities
and rights in the communities, increasing inclusion in the decision-making process in the
community and improved access to resources. Youth do not consider such limited participation
as exclusion as long as they have a youth representative who advocates on their behalf and they
understand how decisions are made and community resources and benefits are distributed. Youth
see such distribution of power, roles and responsibilities between youth and elders in their
communities as part of African traditions and as an accepted sequence of events in life, where
younger generations take time to gain more experience and knowledge, while the older
generation guides them, exercises their authority and makes decision for the benefit of
communities and all their residents.
Young people are often unaware how decisions about community resources, additional
benefits that become available or employment opportunities are made. Lack of sufficient
knowledge about decision-making process, coupled with poor communication between youth
and elders contributes to perception of injustice, unfairness and preferential treatment.
Perception of nepotism, corruption and favoritism of elders and those in power among young
people is very strong. Youth point to such practices as the cause of a stagnant community
development and limited opportunities for young people. At the same time, youth blame
individual leaders either in their communities or on national levels, rather than the structure and
institutions of governance and decision-making for such conditions.
Violence. Youth are described as the main perpetrators of violence in Liberia. There are different
forms of violence that disrupt the daily community life and interpersonal relations. Genderbased violence, violence caused by rivalry or jealously, as a result of financial disputes or
argument over a sports team witness high rates in Liberia. Such violence may disrupt relations,
but is considered as a part of life and human interactions. Though normalized this violence does
not challenge the stability of society. Violence as a response to perceived injustices, on the other
hand, despite its low level and frequency, can trigger a violent response and serve as a source of
fragility in the country.
121 ANNEX 9: GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The Liberian government has undertaken a number of governance reforms since the election of
President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf in 2005. But several challenges continue to contribute to a weak
governance environment. The overall picture is therefore mixed: commitment to build strong
institutions and limited progress in implementation. Liberia’s Country and Policy Institutional
Assessment (CPIA scores) reflects this situation (Figure 1). Nevertheless, according to the 2011
Ibrahim Index of African Governance, Liberia is one of only two countries in the region with
statistically significant improvements in overall governance quality over the past five years
(Table 1).1Moreover, according to the Global Competitiveness Index (2012-2013), Liberia’s
institutions rank strong (45 out of 144) and public trust in politicians is high (25 out of 125).
Governance Challenges and Opportunities for Reform
The central governance challenge confronting Liberia is how to strengthen its
institutions, and harness the nascent state capacity to promote voice and accountability,
political stability, government effectiveness and the rule of law. The government would have
to focus on improving regulatory quality and control corruption in order to improve citizen
confidence in the state. Strengthening the demand side governance will be an important part of
the process. The impending natural resource boom could support, rather than erode, the peace
dividends achieved to date, and ensure tangible human development outcomes. The foundational
elements for a capable state already exist, but would have to be operationalized in order to lead
to good governance outcomes: Liberia scores high on indicators of governance that show the
availability of de jure instruments, and very low on those that demonstrate de facto existence of
practices and institutional behavior.
Voice and Accountability: The World Wide Governance indicators show a general stable trend
in voice and accountability during 2005-2011.2 In 2010 the legislature enacted the Freedom of
Information law. The Whistleblower Protection Act (2010) and the proposed Code of Conduct
law are expected to significantly improve opportunities for citizens to demand accountability of
public officials. The press remains largely free and vibrant, even if quality of reportage is mixed.
Nevertheless, accountability of public officials is rare, and reports of the Auditor General have
not been acted upon even when they have cited evidence of misappropriation. The President
routinely asks government officials implicated in corruption to step aside, even though this has
not always been the case. However, while the government has tried to bring citizens into
discussions of major national policy questions including the Agenda for Transformation,
National Vision 2030, and decentralization policies, there is still a sense that the majority of these
documents were fairly completed before consultation, and that citizen input rarely changed the
trajectory of the debate. The civil society has continued to force debate on major issues including
the budget, resulting in greater understanding of budget issues as a result of the Open Budget
Initiative undertaken by various civil society organizations. By and large, there is a sufficient
1
Mo Ibrahim Foundation (2012). “2011 Ibrahim Index of African Governance”, Available on the web at:
http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org/en/media/get/20111003_ENG2011-IIAG-SummaryReport-sml.pdf
2
For details see: “Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2002-2011” Available on the Web at:
http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_chart.asp. Accessed March 4, 2013.
122 space for more active citizen participation, even if the level of engagement is somewhat
undermined by the ability of the citizens to fully participate, in sometimes, complex debates.
CPIA ratings for Liberia Public Sector Management and Institutions, 2011
Quality of
Public
Administration
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Efficiency of
Revenue
Mobilization
Property Rights
& Rule‐based
Governance
Quality of
Budgetary &
Financial
Management
Liberia
Sub‐Sahara Africa
Average
Source: CPIA (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/cpia/)
Political Stability and Absence of Violence: Liberia remains generally stable with
increasing political stability and limited violence.3 While the presence of the United Nations
Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) continues to provide a secure post conflict environment, the
violence immediately after the 2011 election suggested that latent grievances remain, and could
be exploited for political reasons. But, it is also evident in inter –personal violence such as
gender based violence or ethnic violence during sporting events among rival groups. There have
also been border disputes among local communities as well as conflicts around land. Political
risks associated with presidential succession and the upcoming midterm elections in 2014 will
pose additional challenges. More importantly, the expected withdrawal of UNMIL is likely to
create a vacuum which could pose both political and security challenges. In the meantime, the
government is increasing effort to train the police and strengthen its capacity to deal with
violence in the country. The recent construction of a security hub in Gbarnga (in South East
Liberia) is one such example. The government has also endorsed the need for a national
conversation on reconciliation in order to continue efforts in building united country.
Government Effectiveness: Limited capacity of the public sector capacity undermines the
effectiveness of the government in formulating and implementing policies, in spite of the
progress in recent years. During the conflict, many experienced and qualified professional staff
left the public service because salaries fell to very low levels. At the same time, the public
payroll remained bloated with excessive numbers of unskilled staff added during successive
3 For
details see: United Nations (2012). “Twenty-fourth progress report of the Secretary-General on
the United Nations Mission in Liberia” , Available on the Web at”
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2012/641
123 years of transitional governments. The current structure of the civil service is plagued by a
number of structural and institutional weaknesses including low pay, poor alignment between
skills and functions, inadequate human resource management processes, weak payroll controls
and political interference. Consequently, even though a number of good policies have been
formulated, implementation remains a challenge. For example, safeguards of the Public Financial
Management Act are routinely violated due to the lack of sufficient systems for enforcing
accountability (the 2012 PEFA documented a number of weaknesses in payroll control including
poor reconciliation of the payroll and personnel databases, incomplete personnel database and
personnel records and a lack of periodic reconciliation between payroll and the personnel
database).4 Liberia’s scores in the Bertelsmann Transformation Index for 2010 ranks it as
successful (with weaknesses) in its Management Index (31 out of 128 countries), ahead of all
countries in West and Central Africa region except Ghana, Benin and Mali. Only 8 out of 128
ranked countries globally are fully successfully.
Selected Governance Indicators for
Fragile States, 2012
Indicator
Sierra
Leone
Liberia
3.3
CPIA (out of 6)
3.0
31
Corruption
41
Perception Index (
out of 100)5
2.82
Global
3.71
Competiveness
Index ( out of 7)
World Wide Governance Indicators (0-100)
Voice
and 40.8
38.0
Accountability
Regulatory Quality 26.1
16.1
Control
of 26.5
39.3
Corruption
Open Budget Index 39
43
Ease
of Doing 140
149
Business ( out of
185)
Central
African
Republic
2.8
26
Guinea
Cote
d’Ivoire
2.9
24
2.9
29
Democratic
Republic
of
Congo
2.7
21
N/A
2.90
3.36
N/A
16.4
23.5
15.5
8.0
10
20.4
16.6
8.5
21.8
12.3
5.7
3.3
N/A
185
N/A
178
NA
177
18
181
Sources: CPIA (http://datatopics.worldbank.org/cpia/); TI (www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview); GCI (http://www.gaportal.org/globalindicators/global-competitiveness-index);WGI
(http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp);OBI(http://internationalbudget.org/whatwe-do/open-budget-survey/); Doing Business (http://www.doingbusiness.org/)
Ease of Doing Business: The Government of Liberia has incrementally designed policies to
strengthen the country’s investment climate. These efforts have included improvement in
business registration time, enactment of the commercial code and the establishment of the
commercial court. However, the investment climate is far from sufficiently robust and a number
of regulatory processes still undermine the performance of the private sector. Based on the Doing
Business Report 2013 Liberia ranks 149 out of 185 in “Ease of doing Business”, especially in
protecting investors, enforcing contracts and registering property. This indicates a five step
4
5
IMF et al. (2012). “Liberia: Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability”, p.56-7.
The Corruption Perceptions Index scores countries on a scale from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). 124 improvement from its rank in the 2012 report. The last Enterprise Survey data for Liberia (2009)
identified corruption, crime, electricity and access to finance as the major constraints to
investment. Other constraints facing the investment climate are the weak financial and banking
system, the undeveloped capital market, lack of transparency in the regulatory system and
dispute settlements.
Rule of Law: Emerging from conflict with weak legal and institutional, strengthening of the
rule of law in Liberia remains a challenge. Liberia’s score of 2.5 in the 2011 CPIA report is
slightly below the regional average of 2.8. The judicial system has faced a number of problems
ranging from weak capacity to allegations of corruption. Citizen confidence in the judiciary is
therefore is low. Courts tend to be physically too far from citizens, and have largely been out of
reach for those who cannot afford legal fees. Nevertheless, specialized courts have been
established to deal with crimes such as gender based violence and there is a plan to establish
corruption courts following the successful establishment of the Commercial Courts.
The rule of law in Liberia is undermined by both a weak judiciary and weak police capacity. The
Liberia National Police is increasingly being expanded and skilled, but remains severely
overwhelmed: weak investigation capacity, limited logistical resources, and low morale weaken
police capacity.
Control of Corruption: The inability of the government to control corruption remains a
major challenge for the government. In 2009 over half of the firms interviewed reported that they
were expected to give gifts to “get things done”, to “get a government contract”, and to get an
electric connection. Up to 70 percent of the firms reported experiencing at least one bribe
request. The government has enacted a number of laws to improve transparency and
accountability. This includes the Public Financial Management Act, the Public Procurement and
Concessions Act, the Freedom of Information Act and the Whistleblower Protection Act. The
establishment of the Liberia Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (LEITI) through an Act
of Parliament in 2009 promised an era of transparency in management of resource revenues. In
2012 the President introduced Executive Order Number 38 establishing and Administrative Code
of Conduct for the members of the executive. The General Auditing Commission has routinely
audited government spending, but there has been very limited action on these reports. While
results are mixed, specific actions targeting corrupt officials have been undertaken. This has
mainly comprised suspensions by the appointing authority, and in some cases court action.
However, Liberia’s score of 41 in the Corruption Perception Index (2012) still suggests a high
level of corruption in the public sector.
Strengthening demand side governance
Governance remains a key pillar of the World Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy. This strategy
is fully aligned with the government’s own priorities for governance and public institutions as
outlined in the “Agenda for Transformation”. It recognizes the centrality of good governance to
development as well as an end in itself. In addition to supporting the development of transparent
public financial management institutions, independent, responsive and accountable Civil Service,
and improved natural resource governance, the Bank will strengthen the demand side governance
through increased collaboration with non-state actors by:

Supporting coalitions of non- state actors, including the private sector and legislature
on broad themes such as access to information, budget transparency, contract
monitoring, and natural resource governance. The CPS will continue the ongoing support
for coalition formation on platform issues such as access to information, budget transparency
125 and contract monitoring. In Public Financial Management, for instance, a grant fund will be
available for non-state actors active in this area. Initial discussions are underway to support
the development of local level think tanks to improve evidence based advocacy through
robust policy analysis.

Building civil society capacity in specific accountability platforms, especially the use of
information technology in holding public officials accountable. The development of new
forms of online and SMS enabled platforms for communications offers new avenues for
engaging citizens. The Freedom of Information Act, signed into law in 2010 provides for the
proactive disclosure of information in several areas, and mandates disclosure of all categories
of information, not in the list of exemptions, to be made available upon request. In order to
make these provisions of the law effective, systems and skills to better manage and share
information will be required. In the short term the CPS support adaptation of technology to
support citizen engagement within the spirit of the Access to Information Law. The Bank will
continue its ongoing engagement with the Open Government Partnership of which Liberia is
a member, and support country level engagement.

Engaging with coalitions built around initiatives to improve service delivery and
increase value for money. The Bank will work with non-state actors to support the
implementation of the CPS. Such efforts might involve for instance, periodic consultations
with Civil Society on Bank program and briefings on project implementation. In addition to
supporting the expansion of new instruments of accountability such as the External
Implementation Status Report (E-ISRs), other social accountability activities in the sectors
could be designed as part of Bank operations. For example, the ongoing GPE Basic
Education Project has specifically identified the development of social accountability
framework as a key project activity which will attempt to improve feedback from
communities, schools and NGOs on provision of school grants and learning materials. It
would also include greater and more systematic engagement with the Legislature as well as
with the private sector. The CPS will explore opportunities provided by the Global
Partnership on Social Accountability (GPESA) to engage with non-state actors.

Supporting the engagement of the Liberian Diaspora: The Bank will use an Institutional
Development Fund Grant to support engagement with the Liberia Diaspora as critical
partners in achieving the objectives of the AfT. Through a mixture of structured dialog,
engagement in policy formulation process, investment roundtables the strengthening of this
partnership will enable the diaspora to actively participate in policy formulation and
implementation and offer it an opportunity to support the government’s program of economic
transformation.
126 ANNEX 10: MAINSTREAMING CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT IN THE CPS
The WBG portfolio mainstreams key capacity constraints to achieve the overarching
objective of the CPS and to deliver the development results envisioned for each strategic
theme. The recent institutional diagnostic exercise completed by Liberia in developing the
Agenda for Transformation (AfT) laid important groundwork for the CPS to introduce catalytic
and multi-stakeholder approaches to capacity development in selected areas to help address
challenges related to trust, transparency, and demand for accountability among others.
The need for a more systematic focus on capacity development within the CPS was asserted
in the JCAS Completion Report and the Liberia Country Program Evaluation: 2004-2011
completed by IEG. A key emerging lesson was the need to “ensure that capacity development
is at the heart of project preparation and implementation and monitored at a project, portfolio and
sector level.” IEG called for “sector units to develop a more strategic vision and to provide a
more systematic package of support” and recommended that a central person in the country
office serve as the focal point for a more coordinated approach to capacity development across
the WBG portfolio.
Priority crosscutting capacity development objectives are defined in the CPS and will be
systematically monitored across the portfolio. Nearly all projects include some supply-side
capacity development activities related to human resource development and these are monitored
as needed at the project level. However, responding to certain types of severe capacity
constraints on either the supply or demand side has been emphasized in the CPS and will be
monitored at the portfolio level in either of the following cases:


Addressing a capacity constraint in a specific sector is critically important for the
achievement of the overall CPS objective. A failure to address institutional capacity needs in
the designated sector(s) will threaten the achievement of targeted outcomes in other sectors.
Additional interventions or partnerships could be warranted during the CPS period to address
this risk.
The specific nature of the constraint is prevalent across sectors. Efforts to address a specific
institutional capacity need are ongoing or warranted across sectors and themes within the
current and planned WBG portfolio. The continued focus on systematic monitoring will help
the country team, development partners, and other stakeholders to identify potential synergies
in capacity development support, garner lessons learned, and adjust implementation as
needed.
A two-tiered approach is applied to assess priority capacity development results. Individual
projects will always monitor relevant capacity development outcomes at the project level, but the
achievement of the priority capacity development objectives will be tracked at the portfolio level.
The following two-tiered system for monitoring supports a coordinated approach to managing
key capacity development results without imposing an unrealistic M&E burden:
1. Formally tracked in the CPS Results Matrix. Targeted capacity development outcomes in
specific sectors that play a critical role in the achievement of development outcomes across
the portfolio are reflected in the CPS results matrix. Corresponding indicators with baseline
and target values are included for monitoring.
127 2. Qualitatively assessed during the CPS period. Progress towards a priority capacity
development objective that addresses capacity constraints across multiple sectors and themes
will be assessed qualitatively across the WBG portfolio as part of the mid-term and final
reviews of the CPS. To account for these outcomes, a central focal person or team will need
to review project level data (where available) and/or collect data from relevant stakeholders
during the CPS period. This qualitative assessment across the portfolio is intended not only
to document results, but also to derive lessons learned and identify required changes to
ensure a more coordinated approach in capacity building.
In either case, prescribed assessment activities should help to build and rely on country systems
to the extent possible.
The crosscutting priority capacity development objectives for the Liberia CPS (FY13-17) include
the following:



Strengthen the organizational arrangements and human capacity in the transport and
energy sectors for developing key infrastructure. Severe limitations in staff skills and
systems inhibit the effectiveness of sector institutions for developing the much needed
transport and energy infrastructure in Liberia.
Improve transparency and accountability in the management of public revenues and
expenditures. The lack of transparency and accountability in the use of public assets and
revenues limits citizens’ trust in the state, which historically has served as a driver of conflict
and, therefore, poses a risk for development outcomes across the WBG portfolio.
Increase local stakeholder participation and oversight in the development of basic services
and economic opportunities. Local citizens and other non-state actors have little or no voice
in planning and decision-making as part of the development process.
The CPS mid-term review will assess the capacity development objectives and, if justified, will
introduce changes or adjustments in prioritization or the proposed implementation approach.
Further information on each of these priorities, including their corresponding institutional
capacity constraints, the rationale for prioritizing WBG engagement to address them, and the
proposed approach to assessment is summarized in the matrix below.
128 Priority Capacity Development Objectives in the Liberia Country Partnership Strategy Objective 1: Improve the organizational arrangements and human capacity in the transport and energy sectors for developing key infrastructure Institutional capacity constraints Severe limitations in staff skills and systems inhibit the effectiveness of sector institutions for developing the much needed transport and energy infrastructure in Liberia Why this is a crosscutting priority for the CPS Overview of change agents and change processes In transport, an autonomous road authority will be established using a consultative multi‐
stakeholder approach based on lessons learned in similar contexts. Learning opportunities will be designed to provide national professionals with the knowledge and skills needed for the sustainable planning and administration of road projects. World Bank studies confirm that the lack of basic infrastructure, especially energy and roads, is the binding constraint to accelerating broad‐based, inclusive growth and that it also impedes the effective delivery of social services. Establishing basic infrastructure is essential to support development efforts across sectors, and lending for energy and transport in current and planned operations comprises approximately 80 percent of In the energy sector, WBG support will help to the WBG portfolio. develop the staff skills and systems needed for an efficient and financially viable Liberian Electric Corporation and to strengthen the implementation capacity of the Ministry of Lands, Mines and Energy. Assessment at the CPS Level The increased effectiveness of organizational arrangements is targeted for both the transport and energy sectors. Indicators to be monitored in the CPS results matrix include the following: Transport: Road Authority established (Y/N) Data source: review of legal documents
that establish Road Authority
Increased share of qualified national
staff in key competency areas (%)
Data source: IIU self-assessment assisted
by the Bank
Energy: System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) for customers in Monrovia (Number/month) Data source: LEC data system Objective 2: Improve transparency and accountability in the management of public revenues and expenditures Institutional capacity constraints The government has limited ability to report on and account for public revenues and expenditures, and accountability mechanisms in the management and oversight of public Why this is a crosscutting priority for the CPS The AfT noted that, fundamentally, “peace and national security will be threatened if governance and public institutions do not deliver on their promise of transparency” (p.39) and the recent JCAS Completion Report called for “increased attention” in the CPS to focus on issues of transparency and governance. Transparently reporting on and accounting for Overview of change agents and change processes The process of establishing accountability mechanisms in the management and oversight of public revenues and expenditures will focus first in the key subsector of public financial management. WBG support will help improve compliance with PFM rules and systems and strengthen the oversight capacity of the Legislature and non‐state actors through: 129 Assessment at the CPS Level Targeted institutional capacity outcomes should be monitored in the CPS results matrix through the following indicators:  Extent of unreported government operations (Transparency: PEFA PI‐7 Score)  Scope, nature and follow‐up of external audits (External scrutiny and audit: PEFA PI‐26 Score) institutions are still weak or nonexistent. The lack of transparency and accountability in the use of public assets and revenues limits citizens’ trust in the state. public revenues and expenditures is central to good governance and therefore a core objective within the WBG portfolio. 
Learning and knowledge exchange to develop public sector staff skills and systems  Public Access to key fiscal information (Transparency: PEFA PI‐10) Data source: PEFA assessment report Strengthening strategic networks and coalitions of CSOs to work together with government to promote enhanced transparency and accountability Objective 3: Increase local stakeholder participation and oversight in the development of basic services and economic opportunities Institutional capacity constraints Local non‐state actors have limited opportunities to participate in decisions driving the development process. The AfT highlighted this as a cross‐
sectoral problem and signaled it as a critical issue for development activities involving women and/or youth and those related to the community’s role in natural resource management (p.131). The JCAS Completion Report called for the more strategic engagement of local stakeholders, concluding that “increased attention needs to be given to issues of inclusion (geographic and ethnic).” Overview of change agents and change processes As outlined in the Liberia Conflict and Fragility Ministries, agencies, and/or commissions tasked Filter, giving a voice to local individuals and groups with the achievement of program results as part of a demand‐driven development process implement reforms in processes or structures to is critical for reducing the divisions among empower users and ensure that local subgroups of the population and increasing trust stakeholders have a voice in program planning in the government. and implementation. Examples of such reforms could include the formal inclusion of PTAs in Cases across the WBG portfolio reflect the ongoing push to create the institutional space for school management to ensure parent participation or the establishment of local decision‐making and collective action to community committees with diverse guide the achievement of development objectives. For example, WBG support highlights representation for a particular purpose (i.e. planning local projects, resolving land disputes, the important role of communities in providing facilitating youth employment, etc.). Targeted leadership to youth and identifying employment intermediate capacity outcomes at the project opportunities for them, promotes the level include the formation and/or functioning engagement of parents and community leaders for strengthening school‐based management, and of the stakeholder group. Evidence that the group has provided input to shape the local organizes farmers to link them to marketing and quality promotion opportunities for their crops. development process signals an institutional capacity outcome (increased stakeholder participation). Why this is a crosscutting priority for the CPS 130 Assessment at the CPS Level The country team should qualitatively assess whether stakeholder participation is increasing as needed across each CPS theme at the mid‐term and end of the CPS period. Methods for this assessment might include the following among others:  Structured interviews with project leaders or other key stakeholders  Review of project data (where relevant indicators have been tracked at the project level)  Survey of stakeholders  Service delivery scorecards ANNEX 11: LIBERIA: COUNTRY FINANCING PARAMETERS
March 27, 2009
Item
Cost Sharing:
Limits on the proportion of
individual project costs that IDA
may finance.
Parameter
100%
Recurrent Cost Financing:
Any limits that would apply to the
overall amount of recurrent
expenditures that the Bank may
finance.
No countrylevel limit
Local Cost Financing:
Are the requirements for IDA
financing of local expenditures met,
namely that: (i) financing
requirements for the country’s
development program would exceed
the public sector’s own resources
(e.g., from taxation and other
revenues) and expected domestic
borrowing; and, (ii) the financing of
foreign expenditures alone would not
enable IDA to assist in the financing
of individual projects?
Taxes and Duties:
Are there any taxes and duties that
the Bank would not finance?
Yes
No
Remarks/Explanation
All projects are expected to be financed at 100%,
given the government’s extremely small budget and
inability to provide counterpart funding. In the near
term, only when co-financing is available will IND’s
share be less. Ownership of Bank-financed programs
is being ensured through alignment of the Bank’s
program and the PRSP and through ongoing
dialogue. At the project level, ownership is being
ensured through close supervision and capacitybuilding of government institutions. A significant
proportion of projects are now government executed,
primarily through the Special Implementation Unit
within the Ministry of Public Works, and Project
Financial Management Unite within the Ministry of
Finance.
The Bank working closely with the IMF, would
monitor the fiscal situation, and public expenditure
management and public sector reform to ensure that
recurrent cost financing is embedded in a credible
and sustainable government macroeconomic strategy.
In determining Bank financing of recurrent costs in
individual projects, the Bank will take into account
sustainability issues at the sector and project levels,
including a consideration of implied future budgetary
outlays.
The requirements for local cost financing are met.
The Bank may finance local costs in any proportions
required by individual projects.
Taxes and duties are considered reasonable. The
application of this general approach will be subject to
an ongoing monitoring of tax policy and how taxes
are applied to Bank-financed projects. At the project
level, the Bank will consider whether taxes and
duties constitute an excessively high share of project
costs.
131 ANNEX B1: LIBERIA AT A GLANCE
132 133 ANNEX B2: SELECTED INDICATORS OF BANK PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE AND MANAGEMENT
As Of Date 1/23/2013
Indicator*
Fiscal year
2010
2011
2012
Portfolio Assessment
Number of Projects Under Implementation a
Number of Projects Under Implementation /a
11
9
11
Average Implementation Period (years)
b
Average Implementation Period (years) /b
2.9
2.8
2.2
Percent of Problem Projects by Number
a, c
Percent of Problem Projects by Number /a, c
0.0
0.0
9.1
Percent of Problem Projects by Amount
a, c
Percent of Problem Projects by Amount /a, c
0.0
0.0
1.8
Percent of Projects at Risk by Number a, d
Percent of Projects at Risk by Number /a, d
9.1
0.0
36.4
Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount a, d
Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount /a, d
2.3
0.0
56.6
25.4
36.2
27.2
Disbursement Ratio (%)
e
Disbursement Ratio (%) /e
Portfolio Management
CPPR during the year (yes/no)
Supervision Resources (total US$)
Average Supervision (US$/project)
Memorandum Item
Since FY 80
Proj Eval by OED by Number
Proj Eval by OED by Number
Proj Eval by OED by Amt (US$ millions)
Proj Eval by OED by Amt (US$ millions)
Last Five FYs
29
604.7
% of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number
% OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number
48.3
% of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amt
% OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amount
15.3
a. As shown in the Annual Report on Portfolio Performance (except for current FY).
b. Average age of projects in the Bank's country portfolio.
c. Percent of projects rated U or HU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP).
d. As defined under the Portfolio Improvement Program.
e. Ratio of disbursements during the year to the undisbursed balance of the Bank's portfolio at the
beginning of the year: Investment projects only.
* All indicators are for projects active in the Portfolio, with the exception of Disbursement Ratio,
which includes all active projects as well as projects which exited during the fiscal year.
134 ANNEX B3: IFC INVESTMENT OPERATIONS PROGRAM
Liberia: IFC Investment Operations Program
Original Commitments (US$m)
IFC and Participants
IFC's Own Account only
2010
2011
2012
2013*
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.5
11.5
11.5
25.9
25.9
81.6
18.4
100.0
Original Commitments by Sector (%) - IFC Own Account
Finance and Insurance
Oil, Gas and Mining
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Original Commitments by Instrument (%) - IFC Own Account
Guarantee
Quasi-Equity
Equity
Total
8.0
80.0
12.0
100.0
86.0
100.0
86.5
13.5
14.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
*Data as of May 31, 2013
135 ANNEX B4A: IDA INDICATIVE LENDING PROGRAM, 2013-2017 (IN US$, MILLIONS)
FY 13
FY14
AF - Liberia Road Asset Management Project
(LIBRAMP)
Liberia- Accelerated Electricity Expansion
Project(LACEEP)
Liberia Health Systems Strengthening Project
Budget Support
50
35
10
10
AF –Liberia Urban and Rural Infrastructure
Rehabilitation Project( URIRP)
Budget Support
Civil Service Reform Project
12
10
2
FY13/14
129
FY15
Transport Project (Ganta to Harper road)
Budget Support
Youth Employment/SSN
Land Administration
80
5
10
9
FY16
AF - Accelerated Electricity Expansion
Project(LACEEP)
Budget Support
60
5
FY17
Natural Resource Management Governance Project –
indicative
Budget Support
5
5
FY15-17
TOTAL
179
FY 13-17
136 308
ANNEX B4B: IDA/IFC INDICATIVE AAA PROGRAM, 2013-2017
FY
Pillar I - Peace,
Justice, Security
and Rule of Law
FY 13 
Youth
Vulnerability
Study
Pillar II - Economic
Transformation

TA on Private Sector
Development
Strategy
(joint with IFC)
DTIS Update
Agriculture PER
Urban Policy Note



Pillar III Human
Development



Higher Education
Strategy
Health Financing
Note
Poverty Note
Political
Economy Notes





Private
Sector
Development
Programmatic AAA – SOE
Diagnostic (joint with
IFC)
Transport Sector PER
Multi-Modal
Transport
Study
TA for ICT
IFC AS to identify
Investors
in
Water
Transportation

Private
Sector
Development
Programmatic AAA (joint
with IFC)
Poverty Assessment
Agriculture
Sector
“
Landscape” Diagnostic
PREM Policy Notes
IFC AS Strengthening
Capacity of Small-holders


HD
Programmatic
AAA and TA
(National Youth
Employment
Framework)
IFC
AS
Education
for
Employment
(E4E)

FY 15 





Policy Note on
Extractive
Industries
Governance
TA on Oil Sector
Governance
FY 14 
Pillar IV Governance and
Public Institutions





Programmatic AAA
in Natural Resource
Management
TA on Efficiency
and
Value
for
Money in Budget
Execution
Decentralization
Diagnostics
Land Sector TA
Public Investment
Program TA


HD
Programmatic
AAA and TA Skills for Jobs
Poverty
Assessment
IFC
AS
Education
for
Employment
(E4E)

Other AAA and
TA TBD 

Programmatic AAA
in Natural Resource
Management
PREM Policy Notes
FY 16 
Other AAA and
TA TBD 
Other AAA and TA TBD 137 

PREM Policy Notes
Other AAA and TA
TBD ANNEX B5: LIBERIA – SOCIAL INDICATORS
138 Continued
139 ANNEX B6: LIBERIA – KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
140 141 ANNEX B7: LIBERIA – KEY EXPOSURE INDICATORS
Indicator
Total debt outstanding and
disbursed (TDO) (US$m)
3203
1850
113.9
148
183.3
301.3
447
598.0
753.3
901
..
0
0
34
36
118
149
157
164
159
..
64
6
3
11
12
15
17
18
19
1095.7
376.5
..
0.0
1049.3
160.2
..
7.4
46.0
8.8
..
50.9
33.7
9.7
1.7
36.9
33.8
10.4
1.4
47.5
48.6
15.0
1.9
56.4
66.6
20.0
2.3
61.7
53.8
23.8
1.7
51.4
60.6
26.6
1.7
41.9
71.3
28.2
1.7
34.6
..
..
..
..
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
..
..
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
..
..
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
..
..
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
69
66
0
14
33
88
155
181
191
192
1.0
0.0
11.5
1.1
3.3
0.5
3.0
0.5
11.5
0.0
20.9
5.0
2011
Estimated
2012
2013
2014
Projected
1015
1016
2017
3
Net disbursements (US$m)
3
Total debt service (TDS)
(US$m)
2008
Actual
2009
2010
3
Debt and debt service indicators
(%)
b
TDO/XGS
TDO GDP
TDS/XGS
Concessional/TDO
IBRD exposure indicators (%)
IBRD DS/public DS
Preferred creditor DS/public
c
DS (%)
IBRD DS/XGS
c
IBRD TDO (US$m)
Of which present value of
guarantees (US$m)
Share of IBRD portfolio (%)
IDA TDO (US$M)
c
IFC (us$M)
Loans
Equity and quasi‐equity /c
MIGA MIGA guarantees (US$m)
Note: Figures for IFC were updated as of 5/31/13. All other figures were last update on 1/31/13.
142 IBRD 33435R2
11°W
10°W
9°W
8°W
9°N
9°N
SIERRA
LEONE
To
Irié
Voinjama
To
Buedu
L O FA
M
Ra
ng
e
Vahun
i
W
o
8°N
Zorzor
To
Lola
.
W
Via
ya
be
iz
i
fa
of
Yekepa
Yekepa
To
Nzérékoré
L
G
o
g
lo
iz
GBARPOLU
Kongo
7°N
GRAND
CAPE
MOUNT
Robertsport
N
Bopolu
Tubmanburg
P
St.
Gbarnga
l
au
Zeansue
Zienzu
Totota
Bong Town
Careysburg
7°N
NIMBA
Bensonville
MONTSERRADO
Hartford
CÔTE
D’IVOIRE
n
To
Toulépleu
Tapeta
Tappita
Guata
Kola Town
Poabli
Zwedru
Gaamodebi
6°N
Trade
Town
Buchanan
o
Nu
Tobli
GRAND
BASSA
Harbel
Gloie
hn
Jo
St.
Kakata
MONROVIA
Sagleipie
Yopie
Botata
MARGIBI
To
Danané
Karnplay
Palala
BONG
BOMI
Klay
im
M
ba
Senniquellie
Gbalatuah
Ganta
Bo
ts
Gelahun
g
no
nda
To
Kenema
Nia
8°N
ts
Mt. Wuteve
(1,380 m)
.
Kolahun
To
Pendembu
To
Zimmi
LIBERIA
GUINEA
6°N
Babu
RIVER CESS
GRAND GEDEH
Gonglee
Dube
Pyne
tos
Ce s
Bokoa
SINOE
Cestos City
Kopo
AT L A N T I C OC EAN
Pelokehn
RIVER GEE
Juazohn
Fish Town
Kanweaken
Kahnwia
Sehnkwehn
Tawake
Tawlokehn
5°N
Greenville
M
Nana Kru
5°N
A
Nyaake
LA
GRAND
RY
K R U Barclayville
Sasstown
N
Plibo
Grand Cess
D
LIBE R I A
To
Tabou
Harper
SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS
COUNTY CAPITALS
NATIONAL CAPITAL
4°N
RIVERS
MAIN ROADS
RAILROADS
COUNTY BOUNDARIES
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.
The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information
shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank
Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any
endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
0
0
20
40
60
20
40
80
100 Kilometers
60 Miles
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES
10°W
9°W
8°W
JULY 2007