Global Forest Products Trade Overview
Alberto Goetzl
US International Trade Commission
November 2, 2011
The views expressed in this presentation are solely
those of the author and do not necessarily reflect
those of the U.S. International Trade Commission or
any U.S. government agency.
4.0
8.0
3.5
7.0
3.0
6.0
2.5
5.0
2.0
4.0
1.5
3.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Ind Roundwood
Wood Fuel
Population
Billion Persons
Billion m3
Global Production of Industrial
Roundwood and Wood Fuel
Millions
Paper/Paperboard Consumption
120
100
- 22%
+ 137%
80
60
2000
2010
40
20
0
China
Source: FAOSTAT
India
Japan
EU
No.
America
“Middle Class” Outside the U.S. is Expected to
Double By 2020
1000
800
600
Middle class in developing
countries projected to increase
138% by 2020 vs. just 15% in
developed countries in 2009
Developing
countries
400
200
Developed countries (ex US)
0
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA
2014
2018
Southern Hemisphere Plantation Area
(Thousand Hectares)
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
Oceania
SE Asia
South America
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1990
Source FAO
2000
2010
Billions
Global Trade in Forest Products
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Rdwd & Residues
Lumber & Panels
Secondary Wood Products
Pulp & Paper
Printed Products
U.S. Exports of Domestic Merchandise,
2010
Transportation equipment
Chemicals and related products
Electronic products
Agricultural products
Minerals and metals
Machinery
Energy-related products
Special provisions
20%
18%
14%
11%
10%
9%
8%
4%
3%
2%
2%
<1%
Forest Products
Miscellaneous manufactures
Textiles and apparel
Footwear
0
50
100
150
200
Billion $
TOTAL = 1,122.1 Billion Dollars
Source: USDOC and USITC
250
U.S. Imports of Domestic Merchandise,
2010
Electronic products
Energy-related products
Transportation equipment
Chemicals and related products
Minerals and metals
Machinery
Textiles and apparel
Agricultural products
Miscellaneous manufactures
Special provisions
20%
18%
14%
11%
8%
7%
5%
5%
5%
3%
2%
1%
Forest Products
Footwear
0
100
200
Billion $
TOTAL = 1,898.6 Billion Dollars
Source: USDOC and USITC
300
400
U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance,
2010
Billion $
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
2006
Source: USDOC and USITC
2007
2008
2009
2010
U.S. Forest Products Exports
40
Billion $
35
27% OTH
30
25
5% JPN
13% MEX
20
15
14% CHN
10
5
28% CAN
0
2006
2007
Canada
Japan
United Kingdom
Finland
2008
China
Brazil
Korea
All other
2009
2010
Mexico
Germany
Italy
2010 TOTAL = 36.4 Billion Dollars
Source: USDOC and USITC
U.S. Forest Products Imports, 2010
60
Billion $
50
40
14% OTH
30
2% JPN
4% MEX
20
20% CHN
10
46% CAN
0
2006
2007
Canada
Japan
United Kingdom
Finland
2008
China
Brazil
Korea
All other
2009
2010
Mexico
Germany
Italy
2010 TOTAL = 35.7 Billion Dollars
U.S. Forest Products Trade
Balance, 2010
Billion $
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2006
Source: USDOC and USITC
2007
2008
2009
2010
General Factors Affecting Forest
Products Trade Flows
 Macroeconomic conditions – overall demand,




exchange rates, etc.
Raw material supply (forest area available for
production, productivity, cost)
Technology – changes in products, product yields,
forest yields
Energy Demand – renewable energy
directives/standards, GHG trading
Sustainability Concerns – policies in the form of
voluntary procurement programs and certification,
regulations affecting growing and harvesting, green
building programs, and regulations affecting trade.
Storyline
 Rate of increase in global consumption of wood fiber




is slowing
Demand growth shifting away from industrialized
countries
Supply shifting increasingly to planted forests
Trade in forest products increasingly important
Trade increasingly influenced by national policies,
international processes, and voluntary procurement
practices
Are forest practices improving on a global scale?