Infographic
EPA’s Clean Power Plan: Breaking
Down the Building Blocks
In June, the US Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) announced a proposed rule
for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from
existing power plants. Using its authority
under the Clean Air Act, EPA set state-specific
targets for emissions rates reductions (Figure
1). However, many questioned how this
proposed plan would impact actual emissions from the electricity sector and how
these reductions could be achieved.
Figure 1. EPA Clean Power Plan Emissions Rate Reduction Targets
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Interim goal
(2020–2029)
2012 historical
average emissions rate
Pounds per megawatt hour
750 1,500
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation. 2014. Goal Computation Technical Support Document,
Appendices 3 and 5. Washington, DC.
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2,250
Figure 2. Possible Futures for CO2 Emissions from the US Electricity Sector
How EPA’s building blocks stack up
1. More efficient coal
boilers
Projected baseline
emissions
1,900 2. More use of existing
natural gas combined
cycle units
3. More clean energy
(nuclear and
renewables)
1,700
CO2 emissions
(millions of metric tons)
2,100
2,300
Emissions reductions from
EPA’s building blocks
4. More efficient use of
electricity
1,500
EPA Clean Power
Plan target
20202022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: Based on the Energy Information Agency’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference Case projection of electricity production.
See more at http://common-resources.org/2014/epas-building-blocks/.
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Infographic
emissions outcome, but states and utilities
would have to find ways to reduce emissions more if power generation increases.
EPA also selected four “building blocks” as
the “best system of emissions reduction” for
states to meet their targets (Figure 2). But
which building blocks will survive legal challenge? Figure 2 shows possible futures for
emissions reductions if any of the building
blocks fall. If just building block #1 survives,
only the emissions reductions represented
in light blue in Figure 2 will be made, and
EPA will lose the opportunity to make
meaningful reductions in emissions across
the sector.
In new analysis, RFF’s Anthony Paul
and Sophie Pan estimated actual carbon
dioxide emissions reductions by converting the proposed targets from emissions
rates to tons of emissions (Figure 2). EPA
gives states the option to convert their rate
targets into mass (tons) targets, and their
choices will be consequential. If a state
adopts a rate target, the amount of carbon
emitted will depend on how much electricity is produced. Power generation would
increase with brisk economic growth or an
influx of electric vehicles, and corresponding emissions would increase even while
still complying with the rate target. A massbased target would ensure a consistent