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Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright Author's personal copy Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Ecological Indicators journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind Defining past ecological status and in situ reference conditions using benthic foraminifera: A case study from the Oslofjord, Norway Jane K. Dolven a , Elisabeth Alve a,∗ , Brage Rygg b , Jan Magnusson b a b Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), Gaustadallèen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 2 August 2012 Received in revised form 21 December 2012 Accepted 29 December 2012 Keywords: Environmental monitoring In situ reference conditions Biological quality element Conservation Paleobiology European Water Framework Directive Ecological Quality Status (EcoQS) a b s t r a c t Characterizing marine water bodies and defining ecological status, both present and past (pre-impacted), has become an important task for EU’s Member States and their associates during the last decade due to the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). However, none of the methods used to define Ecological Quality Status (EcoQS) are able to accurately define the status for both the present-day and reference conditions at a given site (i.e., in situ). Recent studies have revealed a significant correlation between the diversity of living (stained) fossilizable benthic foraminifera (protists) and associated environmental parameters (e.g., dissolved oxygen concentration). The present study takes this relationship a step further by applying methods used to define present-day EcoQS on fossil benthic foraminiferal assemblages and, thereby, defining past EcoQS (PaleoEcoQS). This is particularly useful for defining reference condition in areas where biological- and instrumental time-series are limited or lacking. Our case study from the Oslofjord, Norway, shows that (1) the “Foraminiferal method” can define temporal developments in in situ EcoQS from reference to present-day conditions, (2) results of the “Foraminiferal method” reflect available historical biological records and hydrographic time series, (3) data (1993 and 2009) on macrofauna (traditional bio-monitoring tool) and benthic foraminifera from the same sites define the same EcoQS, and (4) the changes in foraminiferal diversity through time are due to human activity (pollution), rather than climate change. Using in situ data to define ecological reference conditions is preferable compared to modeling or comparisons with present-day supposedly similar reference conditions. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction During the last two centuries, Europe has experienced an industrial (and agricultural) revolution, a large population growth with an increased anthropogenic pressure and consequently increasing pollution problems severely threatening the water quality in many areas. To better manage, preserve and protect European water environments the need for a common European water policy and legislation arose and, in 2000, the EU’s Member States, Norway and the European Commission agreed on the Water Framework Directive. This directive established a framework for long-term protection of all water resources including lakes, rivers, transitional water, coastal water and groundwater, preventing these water resources from further deterioration, enhancing their status if needed and promoting sustainable water use (WFD, 2000/60/EC). This was later complemented by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008). Much effort has been put into defining and ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +47 22 85 73 33; fax: +47 22 85 42 15. E-mail address: ealve@geo.uio.no (E. Alve). 1470-160X/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.12.031 identifying different types of water bodies based on geographical and hydrological determinants. This identification has been necessary to accurately describe the water body’s status and compare it to the Directive’s environmental objectives. Each water body is classified into five status categories (High, Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad) based on biological, chemical and physical quality elements (Table 1). Minimum requirements set by the Directive are that all water environments must reach at least “Good” ecological quality status (EcoQS) or the “reference condition” by 2015. The main purpose of environmental monitoring is to investigate the ecological quality status or “health” of the area in focus and whether or not this has changed over time due to human impact. The only way to determine if the status has changed is to compare the present-day situation with the pre-impacted “reference conditions” (Alve, 1991). To define this, the following approaches are recommended within the WFD: (1) Compare the biological characteristics of the area in question with those of assumed similar areas that have not or barely been influenced by human activity (“pristine” sites), (2) use models to reconstruct former “reference conditions”, (3) use historical data, (4) use expert opinions (for discussion, see Borja et al., 2012). Even though these methods for Author's personal copy 220 J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 Table 1 Classification tools and class intervals used for defining status. The diversity indices for benthic foraminifera and geochem and ES100 (class intervals for macro-invertebrates from Veileder 01: 2009), exp(Hbc ) (Bouchet ical parameters include Hlog 2 et al., 2012), heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Zn; Bakke et al., 2010), and total organic carbon (TOC; Molvær et al., 1997). Status High Good Moderate Poor Bad H’ >3.8 3.0-3.8 1.9-3.0 0.9-1.9 <0.9 ES100 >25 17-25 10-17 5-10 <5 Exp H’bc >20 15-20 10-15 5-10 <5 mg Cd/kg <0.25 0.25-2.6 2.6-15 15-140 >140 mg Cu/kg <35 35-51 51-55 55-220 >220 mg Zn/kg <150 150-360 360-590 590-4500 >4500 TOC <2.0 2.0-2.7 2.7-3.4 3.4-4.1 >4.1 defining “reference conditions” have been the best available so far, they suffer from lack of long biological and instrumental time-series providing information back to pre-impacted times, and the comparative approach (1) is problematic, particularly in estuarine areas (Alve, 1995a). Consequently, other approaches should be explored. Paleoecological analyses of dated sediment cores can provide information about several aspects of ecological status in former times and thereby reference conditions by means of e.g., diatoms to reconstruct paleo-TN concentrations in the water masses (e.g., Clarke et al., 2003; Andersen et al., 2004), pigments to investigate paleo-phytoplankton community structure (e.g., Reuss et al., 2005), dinoflagellate cysts to detect possible eutrophication events (e.g., Dale, 2009), and benthic foraminifera to document anthropogenic impacts on marine soft-bottom ecosystems (e.g., Alve, 1991; Scott et al., 2001; Hayward et al., 2004; Tsujimoto et al., 2008). The methodology and philosophy is closely linked to the field of conservation paleobiology (for examples and discussion, see Dietl and Flessa, 2011). The close links between benthic foraminiferal (protist) assemblages and environmental characteristics are well documented (examples in Murray, 2006) and their use in human-impact studies has recently been reviewed by Martínez-Colón et al. (2009). In an effort to “adapt” the paleoecology-approach to the criteria and terminology used in conventional monitoring, a pilot study using the Norwegian governmental classification system for characterization of present-day ecological status was successfully applied on benthic foraminifera and geochemical data from sediment cores in the inner Oslofjord, Norway (Alve et al., 2009a). Recently, significant correlations between the diversity of benthic foraminifera in fjord basins and environmental parameters (primarily bottom water dissolved oxygen) have been established and a new foraminiferabased diversity index, i.e., the exponential, bias corrected Shannon )), is proposed for assessing ecological status in Norindex (exp(Hbc wegian coastal waters (Bouchet et al., 2012). This classification system is based on the same five status classes as the classification system of the WFD. Our present study aims to investigate the potential of applying conventional ecological classification systems on fossil foraminiferal data for defining EcoQS back in time (i.e., PaleoEcoQS). The reliability of the method is tested by comparing the results of the paleoecological analyses with historical biological records and hydrographical time series. If the method works it is a good indication that it will enable determination of in situ reference conditions even in areas where no historical information is available, an accomplishment which is particularly important for implementing the WFD. An additional aim is to compare the diversity of benthic foraminifera with other environmental proxies, such as total organic carbon and concentrations of heavy metals. The final aim is to investigate whether temporal changes in ecological status below the seasonal layer in inner Oslofjord during the last century is a result of changes in pollution or of a changing climate (or both). 2. Characteristics of the investigation area 2.1. Geomorphologic setting and hydrography The inner Oslofjord is located in SE Norway (Fig. 1). It is separated from the outer Oslofjord by a narrow sound (width about 1600 m) with a shallow sill at 19.5 m water depth just north of the small town of Drøbak. About half the width of the sound is blocked by a submarine jetty reaching up to about 1 m below the sea-surface. Seen from the air, the inner fjord system looks like the neck and head of a swan. Choosing the shortest path, the inner fjord stretches about 40 km from Drøbak in the south (“the swan neck”) to the innermost part (“the beak”). Along this path there are two main basins, Vestfjord and Bunnefjord, and several smaller basins. The Vestfjord and Bunnefjord have a maximum water depth of about 160 m. The north-south oriented Nesoddtangen-Bygdøy sill with a water depth of about 50 m separates the two main basins and influences the water exchange within the inner Oslofjord system. Due to the narrow sound and shallow sill at Drøbak, the inner Oslofjord is partly enclosed and the transport of water between the outer and the inner fjord is limited, especially below sill depth. The stratification above sill level in the inner fjord is often imported from the outer fjord by the semidiurnal tide (range about 28 cm), wind and atmospheric pressure variations. The local freshwater discharge is low (annual averages of about 27 m3 /s; Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002) compared to the discharge from rivers to the outer Oslofjord (Glomma and Drammenselva, annual averages 720 and 330 m3 /s, respectively). This often results in a transport of low saline surface water from the outer to the inner fjord system during the spring and summer (reversed estuarine circulation). The deep water is renewed by denser water from the outer fjord/Skagerrak during the winter and early spring (October/November–April). The main driving force is northerly winds over the Oslofjord/inner Skagerrak area. The strength and duration of the northerly winds determine the amount of renewed Author's personal copy J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 221 Bunnefjord has been more severely affected by low oxygen than the Vestfjord but in the former, water depths shallower than 80 m have not experienced anoxia since the year 2000 (Berge et al., 2010). 2.2. Pollution history Fig. 1. Inner Oslofjord with sampling sites, hydrographic stations, and location of main sills (white dashed lines) indicated (after Lepland et al., 2010). Southern sill = Drøbak sill, northern sill = Nesoddtangen-Bygdøy sill. water (Gade, 1968). Deep-water renewals occur annually in the Vestfjord, but only once every 3–4 years below 50–60 m (sill depth) in the Bunnefjord. The difference between the two basins is explained by the 5 times higher vertical diffusion in the Vestfjord, reducing the density (salinity) in the deep water in the stagnation period (May–October) and increasing the possibility for denser water at sill depth outside the sill to renew the Vestfjord (Gade, 1968). While the surface water temperature is mainly influenced by (local) air temperature, the deep water temperature varies with the general winter air temperature in the inner Skagerrak/Oslofjord area at a time preceding the renewal. That is why the deep water temperature range is 6–7 ◦ C (Fig. 2), except in years with early deep water exchange or in periods with milder winter climate that has been frequent in the area after 1989. At 60 m depth the temperature is similar in Bunnefjord and Vestfjord as it is close to the depth of the sill separating them (50 m). At 90–100 m the similarity is slightly less pronounced due to periodic differences in the deep water renewal (Fig. 2). However, from an ecological point of view, the temperature differences between the basins are small. The salinity in the deep water is 32–34 (Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002). The fjord experienced a significant decrease in dissolved [O2 ] since regular measurements started in 1934 until the middle of the 1980s from which time improvements are recorded (Fig. 3). The In the Oslo area industrial pollution became prominent in the second half of the 19th century (Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002). Paper mills, textile-, nail- and chemical-factories as well as breweries and other industries were discharging their untreated waste directly into the small rivers and later via the municipal sewage system. In addition to industrial waste the largest pollution source in the inner Oslofjord during the last century has been municipal sewage discharge from the continuously growing population of the city of Oslo (Arnesen, 2001; Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002). In the early 1900s the pollution was limited to near-shore or harbor areas, but as the population grew the entire inner fjord was affected. In 1933 the Bunnefjord was found to be anoxic at 150 m water depth (Braarud and Ruud, 1937) and in November 1950 the hydrogen sulfide layer reached from the bottom up to 75 m depth (Beyer and Føyn, 1951) due to the combined effects of pollution and lack of deep water renewal. Oslo’s first (mechanical) wastewater treatment plant was established in 1910 and others were established in the following decades (Arnesen, 2001). Although the sludge method removed much of the organic material and bacteria from the wastewater, little was done to remove nutrients (like phosphorus and nitrogen). The latter were discharged untreated into the fjord assuming that the fjord was capable of purifying itself. Instead the nutrients were fertilizing the fjord causing large algal blooms from the 1930s. Settling of organic material related to the high primary production in the surface water was causing oxygen depletion in the bottom water layers. This link between discharges of nutrients to the fjord, plankton blooms, and oxygen deficiency was first suggested by Braarud and Ruud (1937), and further explored by Braarud (1945), Beyer and Føyn (1951) and NIVA (1968, 1970) and resulted in the building of modern treatment plants. It was not until 1982, that the majority of households in the inner Oslofjord were connected to wastewater plants. The new plants removed much of the phosphorus from the discharge water. In addition, the wastewater was released deeper in the water column to limit algal production between the deep water renewals. Nitrogen removal was introduced between 1996 and 2001. Sewage treatment in inner Oslofjord combined with increased freshwater to intermediate depths has allowed the fjord to slowly recover (Magnusson et al., 2006), but it will take many years until fully oxygenated bottom waters are re-established, especially where the deep water renewal is limited as in Bunnefjord. 3. Materials and methods Ten cores were collected in inner Oslofjord in February and April 2009 (Fig. 1, Table 2) using the R/V Trygve Braarud. When selecting sites, the following were considered: (1) choose areas with the highest possible sedimentation rate; (2) avoid heavily trawled (i.e., disturbed) areas; (3) choose sites where macrofauna was sampled in 1993 (Olsgard, 1995) and in 2009 (Norwegian Institute for Water Research, unpublished); (4) for comparative reasons, choose sites with similar water depth in the two main basins. One site outside the inner Oslofjord (core Im4x) was sampled as a reference station. All ten cores (8 cm diameter, 24–61 cm in length) were sampled using a “Gemini twin barrel corer” (a modified Niemistö corer, Niemistö, 1974). At each station at least four cores were collected and the most undisturbed was selected for down-core study. As soon as possible after collection, the upper 20 cm of the cores were divided into 1 cm thick slices (i.e., 0–1 cm, 1–2 cm, etc.) Author's personal copy 222 J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 Temperature at 60 m depth in Vestfjorden and Bunnefjorden. A 9 8 Temperature (°C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bunnefjorden 60 m depth Vestfjorden 60 m depth 0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Temperature 90-100 m depth in Vestfjorden and Bunnefjorden. B 9 8 Temperature (°C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bunnefjorden 100 m depth Vestfjorden 90 m depth 0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Fig. 2. (a) Temperatures at 60 m water depth in Bunnefjord (sta. Ep 1) and Vestfjord (sta. Dk 2). Observations mainly from October (or September–December). (b) Temperatures at 100 m water depth in the Bunnefjord and 90 m depth in the Vestfjord. Observations mainly from October (or September–December). Data from Braarud and Ruud (1937), Dannevig (1945), Beyer and Føyn (1951), Institute of Marine Research Flødevigen Research Station (1952–1961, unpublished) and Norwegian Institute for Water Research (1962–2009, unpublished). and 2 cm thick slices below 20 cm (20–22 cm, 22–24 cm, etc.). All samples were freeze-dried and the water content calculated. Seven cores were sent to The Gamma Dating Center in Denmark and analyzed for 210 Pb-, 226 Ra- and 137 Cs-activity via gamma spectrometry carried out on a Canberra ultralow-background Ge-detector. A modified version of CRS-modeling (Appleby, 2001) was applied to most profiles. In some cases the measured age model did not cover the whole profile. A linear Table 2 Details of the nine sediment cores collected in the inner Oslofjord and the reference station (*) sampled just outside the inner Oslofjord. TOC = total organic carbon; HM = heavy metals; samp. = number of samples analyzed. Core name Latitude Longitude Water depth (m) Collected (dd-mm-yy) Core length (cm) Dated TOC samp. HM samp. Ep1 Cp3-1 B18x EA1 Bo2-1 Fl1-1 Dk2-1 Dm2-1 Cj3-1 Im4x* 59.789551 59.835415 59.858215 59.850536 59.890549 59.750900 59.817249 59.826351 59.844734 59.645035 10.718650 10.706800 10.696383 10.738063 10.665517 10.575084 10.563367 10.616199 10.510067 10.613633 152 101 85 58 55 160 99 85 58 157 23-04-09 23-04-09 20-02-09 23-04-09 23-04-09 19-02-09 23-04-09 20-02-09 23-04-09 18-02-09 61 39 38 33 25 30 37.5 46 24 34 Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes 18 19 19 18 16 18 0 19 16 19 16 19 19 0 16 0 0 0 0 22 Foram samp. 11 9 8 6 6 3 2 6 10 6 Author's personal copy J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 223 Fig. 3. Oxygen concentration (ml/l) 1933–2009 (October month). (a) 90 m water depth in Vestfjord (sta. Dk 2), (b) 150 m water depth in Bunnefjord (sta. Ep 1). Data from Braarud and Ruud (1937), Dannevig (1945), Beyer and Føyn (1951), Institute of Marine Research, Flødevigen Research Station (1951–1960, unpublished), Føyn and Andersen (1970–71, unpublished) and the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (1962–2009, unpublished). extrapolation, assuming constant sedimentation rates, was therefore performed to get an indication of ages below the oldest datum point. As there is much uncertainty connected to such calculations, the extrapolated ages are written in parenthesis and italics. Analyses of total organic carbon (TOC) were carried out using a LECO Carbon Analyzer. Metal analyses were performed using the HNO3 -method described in Norsk Standard (NS4770, 1994) (for comments on the use of bioavailable, extractable concentration of metals rather than the total, see Martínez-Colón et al., 2009; Alve Author's personal copy 224 J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 Table 3 Radiometric dates (*) and sediment accumulation rates for the five successfully dated sediment cores in Oslofjord (details in Dolven and Alve, 2010). Ages without asterisks are calculated by interpolations between datum points. Numbers in parenthesis and italics are calculated by extrapolation assuming constant sedimentation rates and are hence uncertain. Depth (cm) 0 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.0 29.0 31.0 33.0 35.0 37.0 39.0 41.0 Ep1 Age Acc rate (years) (kg m-2 y-1) 2009 2008 2005 2003 2000* 0.45 1997 1994* 0.39 1992 1989* 0.47 1987 1984* 0.52 1982 1980* 0.44 1978 1976* 0.49 1974 1972* 0.65 1970 1968* 0.52 1965 1961* 0.36 1956* 0.41 1946 1936* 0.39 (1926) (1916) (1906) (1896) (1886) (1876) (1866) (1856) Cp3 Bunn 18x Age Acc rate Age Acc rate (years) (kg m-2 y-1) (years) (kg m-2 y-1) 2009 2009 2008* 0.5 2008* 0.43 2007* 0.5 2004 2004* 0.4 2000* 0.37 1997* 0.3 1996* 0.32 1986* 0.2 1992* 0.32 1980* 0.4 1986* 0.27 1975* 0.5 1982* 0.43 1971* 0.7 1979 1966* 0.7 1975* 0.55 1959* 0.6 1972* 0.83 1953* 0.6 1969 1.32 1949* 0.8 1967 1944* 0.9 1964* 1.53 1939 1962 1935 1959* 1.42 1930* 0.9 1956 1920 1952* 1.26 1910 1948 1900* 0.5 1943* 1.06 (1890) 1938 (1875) 1935* 1.55 (1855) 1930 (1835) 1925* 2.07 1917 (1815) (1795) 1908* 1.18 (1775) 1897* 0.92 (1755) 1884 1870* 0.79 (1735) (1715) (1857) (1700) et al., 2009a). Freeze-dried samples for foraminiferal analyses were gently homogenized and <2 g of sediment was weighed, washed through a 63 m sieve, and the largest fraction dried and examined under a binocular microscope. Only hard-shelled, fossilizable species (sensu Bouchet et al., 2012) were included in this study. If possible, more than 250 specimens (tests) were picked, mounted on faunal slides and identified to species. Reworked, shallow-water species (<10 tests per sample) were subtracted from the dataset and not included in the calculations. Benthic foraminiferal accumulation rate, BFAR (number of tests/cm2 /year) (Herguera, 1992), was calculated for all successfully dated cores. All sediment weights were corrected for salt content due to varying marine pore water content in the samples. Diversity indexes, i.e., the Shannon–Wiener index (Hlog ) and the Hurlbert’s index (ES100 ), and cluster anal2 yses were calculated using PRIMER version 6.1.6 (Clarke and Gorley, 2006). For cluster-analyses the data were transformed using square root and resemblances calculated using the Bray Curtis method (Bray and Curtis, 1957). The exponential bias corrected ), was calculated using the statisShannon–Wiener index, exp(Hbc tical language R version 2.13.2 (http://www.r-project.org/) and the Entropy package v. 1.1.6 (Hausser and Strimmer, 2011). Status boundaries for Hlog and ES100 are the same as 2 those used in the Norwegian classification system based on ), the stamacro-invertebrates (Veileder 01: 2009). For exp(Hbc tus boundaries defined for complete living (stained) >63 m foraminiferal assemblages is used because of its highly significant Cj3 Age (years) 2009 2008* 2005* 2002* 1999 1995* 1991* 1986* 1981* 1977* 1973 1969* 1965 1961* 1956 1950* 1944 1938* 1932 1926* 1919 1909* 1898* Acc rate (kg m-2 y-1) 1.30 1.11 1.01 1.10 1.04 0.87 0.86 1.03 1.20 1.11 0.87 0.84 0.93 0.82 1.09 Im4x Age (years) 2009 2008 2007 2006* 2005 2004* 2002 2000* 1999 1997* 1995 1993* 1991 1988* 1985 1982* 1979 1975* 1972 1969* 1965 1962* 1954* 1947* 1940 1933* 1924* 1915* Acc rate (kg m-2 y-1) 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 correlation with diversity based on fossilizable living assemblages (Bouchet et al., 2012). Ecological status with class boundaries for all the abovementioned classification tools are shown in Table 1. In the present study, following Alve et al. (2009a), sediments deposited before the mid 1800s are used for characterizing the pre-industrial background, or “reference conditions” (see also Willis and Birks, 2006). 4. Results 4.1. Chronology and sediment accumulation rates Five of the seven dated cores (Ep1, Cp3, Bunn18x, Cj3, and Im4x) showed a reliable chronology (Table 3; for details see Dolven and Alve, 2010). The sediment record of all five cores date back to the early 1900s, and two possibly back to the 18th century. The sediment accumulation rate in the oldest dated parts of the three Bunnefjord-cores ranges between 0.4 and 0.8 kg/m2 /year with the higher values at the northern, shallower sites (Cp3 and Bunn18x) closer to the city of Oslo. All three cores show a maximum accumulation rate during the late 1960s/early 1970s. The sediment accumulation rate is quite uniform in the Vestfjord core (Cj3), whereas at the reference site (Im4x), just outside the Drøbak sill, the highest values occur during the last couple of decades and are generally 4–5 times higher than in the deep Bunnefjord. Fl1 had a calculated flux of unsupported 210 Pb about ten times larger than the Author's personal copy J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 Ref. Station Vestfjord Bunnefjord Table 4 Diversity indices for benthic foraminifera in ten sediment cores from Oslofjord, Norway, and for macrofauna samples collected at some of the same sites in 1993 and 2009. For explanation of color codes, see Table 1; for further explanation, see text. Sample Ep1-1 Ep1-2,5 Ep1-13 Ep1-21 Ep1-25 Ep1-29 Ep1-33 Ep1-35 Ep1-43 Ep1-51 Ep1-60,5 Cp3-0,5 Cp3-2,5 Cp3-5,5 Cp3-8,5 Cp3-12,5 Cp3-15,5 Cp3-19,5 Cp3-31 Cp3-35 EA1-1,5 EA1-3,5 EA1-6,5 EA1-9,5 EA1-17,5 EA1-32,5 B18x-0,5 B18x-1,5 B18x-6.5 B18x-11,5 B18x13,5 B18x-17,5 B18x-23 B18x-37 Bo2-1,5 Bo2-4,5 Bo2-7,5 Bo2-12,5 Bo2-15,5 Bo2-24,5 Cj3-0,5 Cj3-1,5 Cj3-3,5 Cj3-5,5 Cj3-7,5 Cj3-9,5 Cj3-11,5 Cj3-14,5 Cj3-17,5 Cj3-23 Dm2-3,5 Dm2-9,5 Dm2-12,5 Dm2-16,5 Dm2-27 Dm2-45 Dk2-6,5 Dk2-31 Fl1-1,5 Fl1-17,5 Fl1-29 Im4-0,5 Im4-5,5 Im4-13,5 Im4-19,5 Im4-23 Im4-29 Foraminifera Macrofauna S N ES(100) H'(log2) Exp H' bc Collected ES(100) H'(log2) 6 100 6.00 0.84 2.00 2009 0.00 0.00 3 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 0.00 0.00 2 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 14 216 9.91 2.22 5.12 16 288 12.72 2.66 6.56 20 253 13.18 2.72 7.35 14.58 2.82 7.84 23 295 21.41 3.67 14.06 30 270 33 200 22.77 3.58 14.60 36 227 24.86 4.00 18.84 8.07 1.72 3.58 12 247 11.95 2.08 4.78 18 236 6.90 1.50 3.02 12 338 11.34 2.34 5.52 19 333 21.03 3.60 14.29 35 275 32 273 21.00 3.76 15.27 36 334 21.91 3.86 16.29 26.90 4.17 20.74 43 293 23.39 3.79 16.22 42 324 11.37 2.22 5.01 2009 8.00 1.12 19 352 8.86 2.06 4.34 14 378 14.75 2.69 7.23 23 270 42 372 23.90 3.83 16.13 32 274 20.40 3.53 13.23 22.77 3.98 17.89 31 221 3 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.46 1.12 2.47 15 273 15.11 2.56 7.21 23 264 15.07 2.62 6.66 24 238 15.98 2.75 7.35 25 327 19.16 3.06 9.59 33 322 29 280 19.42 3.20 10.28 24 409 13.08 2.50 6.15 2009 10.58 1.69 12.14 2.28 5.46 1993 18.00 3.43 19 252 16 252 10.09 2.13 4.87 21.07 3.34 11.49 32 274 20.70 3.35 11.27 29 262 18.36 3.24 10.68 27 246 32 287 20.62 3.43 12.15 2009 27.42 4.12 33 315 20.38 3.16 10.10 16.86 2.81 8.05 1993 22.00 4.03 27 278 14.96 2.59 6.83 26 317 12.79 2.49 6.15 20 301 17.97 2.95 8.74 31 339 19.67 3.48 12.45 31 307 19.02 3.46 12.64 36 357 36 279 23.42 4.01 18.20 27.19 4.11 20.50 43 259 7 223 5.81 0.98 2.03 2009 ? 0.92 15 291 8.18 1.37 2.90 17 280 9.64 1.33 2.87 12.79 2.31 5.34 20 347 31 276 19.07 2.70 7.65 22.30 3.81 15.83 35 294 38 232 25.59 3.94 18.44 2009 22.16 3.07 22.16 3.96 17.81 1993 21.00 3.52 34 254 23.84 3.87 16.49 2009 13.97 2.28 35 281 26.28 4.26 21.39 1993 21.00 3.52 38 274 30.49 4.43 24.76 47 279 31.23 4.55 26.52 2009 32.39 4.48 45 263 33.37 4.74 30.01 48 280 31.93 4.77 30.87 1993 25.00 4.10 51 325 49 308 31.73 4.67 29.13 41 301 25.36 4.11 19.77 28.52 4.39 23.62 42 280 225 Author's personal copy 226 J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 Zn og Cu Water content (%) 0 20 40 60 80 0 400 200 600 (ppm) Forams Water content (%) MF 0 800 1000 1200 0 2000 Bunn18x 5 Forams 40 60 80 2 3 4 EA1 1992 5 1982 1972 10 1967 1962 Depth (cm) 20 0 15 1956 20 1938 10 15 1948 1930 20 25 1917 25 30 1897 30 1870 35 40 35 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 0 Zn og Cu Water content (%) MF 0 20 40 0 3 2 4 60 0 80 200 400 TOC (%) Forams (ppm) 600 800 10 0 20 40 0 60 0 200 4 0 1 400 (ppm) 600 Forams 800 0 1997 1980 1971 1978 Depth (cm) 80 2007 Cp3 5 1959 10 1970 20 Zn og Cu Water content (%) 1000 2008 2000 1994 1989 1984 Ep1 1 0 Cd (ppm) TOC (%) 1949 1956 1946 1936 15 1930 1910 30 (1900) 40 (1890) 20 25 (1850) (1800) 30 50 (1800) 35 60 (1700) 0 2 1 3 0 4 1 2 Water content (%) 0 20 60 40 4 5 0 2 1 Zn og Cu 80 0 Forams (ppm) 100 3 200 Water content (%) MF 0 300 0 20 40 0 Im4x 10 1995 1977 10 1982 1969 1975 1961 1969 20 Forams 80 1986 1993 15 4 2002 5 1988 Depth (cm) 60 2002 1999 3 2008 Cj3-1 2006 5 2 Cd (ppm) TOC (%) Cd (ppm) TOC (%) MF 3 1962 1950 15 1938 1947 25 1926 20 1933 30 1909 1898 1915 35 25 0 1 2 TOC (%) 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Cd (ppm) 0.8 1 0 1 2 3 4 TOC (%) Fig. 4. Composite diagrams showing down-core distribution of total organic carbon (TOC), metal concentrations (Zn, Cu, Cd (ppm)) and Paleo-Ecological Quality Status (PaleoEcoQS) based on fossil assemblages of benthic foraminifera (right hand arrows) in the five successfully dated and one undated sediment cores from Oslofjord. Additional information includes EcoQS based on macrofauna (MF) collected in 1993 and 2009 (left hand arrows) (for explanation of color codes, see Table 1). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.) Author's personal copy J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 227 “Poor” status. Core Bunn18x reveals the same transition, but later, reaching “Poor” conditions in the early 1980s. Cores Cp3 and EA1 show similar patterns but both reveal an improvement in the upper parts. In core Cj3 from the Vestfjord, the conditions change from “High” to “Good” in the early 1900s, to “Moderate” in the 1960s and back to “Good” conditions the last decade. The temporal development in the 85-m water depth core from Vestfjord (Dm2) changes from “Good” to “Poor” status whereas the core located close to the Nesodden-Bygdøy sill (Bo2) changes from “Good” to “Moderate”. Neither of them show improvements in the uppermost recent part. The reference core (Im4x) just outside the inner Oslofjord yields ) shows the same temporal pat“High” status throughout. Exp(Hbc tern but the status is commonly one class lower compared to the other two indices. 4.3. Similarity between foraminiferal assemblages Fig. 5. Map of inner Oslofjord with sampling sites. Small circles = present-day ecological status; Large circles = “reference” conditions. For color codes, see Table 1. Ecological status is based on ES100 and H . Dashed lines indicate the positions of the main sills. Data from Bærum basin based on Alve et al. (2009b). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.) estimated local atmospheric supply indicating intense sediment focusing, whereas the profiles of unsupported 210 Pb and 137 Cs in Bo2 indicate sediment mixing (Dolven and Alve, 2010). Hence, the dating of the two latter cores is regarded as indicative only. 4.2. Foraminiferal diversity and EcoQS As the main purpose of the present study is to test the application of conventional ecological classification systems on fossil foraminiferal data to define PaleoEcoQS, rather than reconstructing the detailed development at each site, analyzing more cores is prioritized at the expense of the number of samples per core. Complete foraminiferal analyses, identifying >180 taxa, was performed on 67 samples from ten cores (census data available in Dolven and Alve, 2010). The ES100 - and Hlog -data give very similar 2 ecological status (Table 4). In cases where the indices do not give the same status, the average is chosen after normalization of the index values (Figs. 4–6) following Norwegian guidelines (Veileder 01:2009). All studied cores show “Good” or “High” EcoQS in the deepest sample, corresponding to early 1900s or earlier. The four Bunnefjord cores reveal a gradual change toward lower diversity corresponding to “Moderate” or “Poor” ecological status when passing the mid-1900s. In Ep1, the core from the deepest and innermost Bunnefjord station, “Poor” status is reached in the mid 1930s, it developed into “Bad” by the mid 1950s and remains “Bad” until present. The uppermost sample shows signs of improvement with a diversity value lying close to the boundary between “Bad” and Five samples were excluded from the cluster analysis due to very low abundance (<30 specimens per sample). Except for an outlier represented by the surface sample in core Ep1, which was strongly dominated (85%) by Stainforthia fusiformis, the cluster analysis defined three groups of assemblages (Fig. 7). The three groups represent (1) the most recent–subrecent assemblages in the Bunnefjord and north of Dk2 in Vestfjord, all with >40% (max 84%) S. fusiformis, abundant (>10%) Bulimina marginata, and in some cases Bolivinellina pseudopunctata and Elphidium albiumbilicatum, (2) the oldest parts of these cores plus Dk2 with abundant Adercotryma glomeratum/wrighti, Nonionella iridea, Cassidulina laevigata, and Nonionellina labradorica, and (3) all assemblages in the reference core outside the sill (Im4x) plus the youngest and oldest assemblage in the 160-m Vestfjord core (Fl1) with common (>5%) Brizalina skagerrakensis, C. laevigata, S. fusiformis, N. iridea, A. glomeratum/wrighti, Pullenia osloensis, and Hyalinea balthica. 4.4. Benthic foraminiferal accumulation rate Accumulation rates of foraminiferal tests have been calculated for cores with the most reliable chronologies (Fig. 8). The general trend is an increase from <30 to about 150 tests/cm2 /year during the late 1800s until the 1970s. From this time it continues to increase to about 200 and 300 in the Vestfjord and at the reference station, respectively, whereas a decrease to <50 is recorded in Bunnefjord. At the deep 152 m-site in Bunnefjord (Ep1) the maximum accumulation rate occurs at the end of the 1800s. It approaches zero around 1950 and stays low until a slight increase occurs at the time of sampling (2009). 4.5. Total organic carbon and heavy metal concentrations Total organic carbon (TOC) was analyzed in nine of the ten cores. The lowermost samples in all cores show TOC < 1.9% (Fig. 4, Dolven and Alve, 2010). Values <2% correspond to “High” EcoQS (Table 1). An increase in TOC-values is seen around 1930 in the dated cores. This is particularly evident in the three deepest and most undisturbed Bunnefjord cores (i.e., Ep1, Cp3 and Bunn18x) which show maximum TOC-values of 4.6–6.0% between 1970 and 1980 corresponding to “Bad” EcoQS. Vestfjord TOC-maxima are slightly lower (3.5–5.5%) corresponding to “Poor” to “Bad” EcoQS, whereas the reference core Im4x shows a maximum TOC of 2.7%, i.e., “Moderate” to “Good”. All cores (except EA1 and Bo2) show a gradual decrease in TOC-content after the maximum peak. This decrease is best depicted in the Bunnefjord cores, where TOC decreases to about 3% in the core top, corresponding to “Moderate” EcoQS. The concentrations of acid soluble Cu, Cd and Zn were analyzed in five cores; Ep1, Cp3, Bunn18x from the Bunnefjord, Bo2 from the Vestfjord, and in the reference core Im4x (Fig. 4). As with Author's personal copy 228 J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 ES100 0 5 10 15 H’log2 20 25 30 35 1 2 Exp H’bc 3 4 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010 1960 1910 1900 1860 1810 1760 1710 1800 Cj3 Vestfjord Cp3 Ep1 Bunnefjord Bunn18x Im4x Ref. station 1700 Fig. 6. ES100 , Hlog and exp(Hbc ) values plotted against age in the five successfully dated sediment cores from Oslofjord, Norway. For explanation of color codes along the 2 lower x-axes, see Table 1. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.) the TOC, the lowest concentrations of heavy metals are found in the lowermost part of the analyzed cores, i.e., 160–190 ppm Zn, 0.6–0.8 ppm Cd, and 23–28 ppm Cu. These correspond to “Good” EcoQS for Zn and Cd and “High” for Cu (Table 1). The concentrations in the Bunnefjord cores increase in sediments deposited during the 1950s and 1960s and show maxima for Zn (1135 ppm), Cd (4.4 ppm) and Cu (300 ppm) in the 1970s/1980s, almost synchronously with the TOC-peaks. Depending on element, the peak-values correspond to “Moderate” to “Bad” EcoQS. Subsequently, all concentrations decrease and, in most cases, the surface sediments (i.e., post 2005) reach “Good” EcoQS. Core Bo2 also shows increased concentrations up core but for Zn and Cd EcoQS remains “Good” throughout the profile. For Cu, however, the concentration increases from 25 ppm in the lowermost sample to a maximum of 157 ppm in the 1970s corresponding to a change from “High” to “Poor” status. The lack of a clear maximum in the metal concentrations reflects some disturbance in the chronology, as indicated by the unreliable dating results. The heavy metal concentrations in the reference core Im4x reflect “Good” to “High” EcoQS with maximum concentrations during the 1960s and 1970s. 5. Discussion 5.1. Chronological framework The maximum metal concentrations around 1970/1980 agree with Cu-results from cores collected closer to Oslo harbor (Lepland et al., 2010). Minor discrepancies may be attributed to local disturbance of the sediments, different distance to the source (Oslo city) and thickness of the analyzed sediment slices (time-average effect). However, the overall picture illustrates the usefulness of Cu and Cd as chronostratigraphic markers in the inner Oslofjord as suggested by Lepland et al. (2010) and the present study shows that the same applies for Zn and TOC (Fig. 4). This information can be used to correlate, and thereby indirectly date, similar levels in radiometrically undated cores from other parts of the basin. The fact that comparable down-core metal distribution profiles occur in cores with oxic and in cores with anoxic surface sediments makes it unlikely that the subsurface metal-maxima are significantly influenced by diagenetic remobilization (cf. Lepland et al., 2010). The present results with lower sediment accumulation rates in Bunnefjord, both in time and space, with increasing distance from Oslo harbor during the middle part of the last century and a clear reduction during the last 40–50 years, also support the conclusion that a recent decrease in accumulation may be linked to improved waste handling (Lepland et al., 2010). 5.2. Bunnefjord According to the foraminiferal data, the deepest parts of Bunnefjord (Ep1) were characterized by “Good” EcoQS during the last half of the 1700s and first half of the 1800s, and the status at 100 m water depth (Cp3) was even better (Figs. 4 and 6). Unfortunately, there is no historical information about the environmental conditions from these early times with which to test these results. However, for the last half of the 1800s when the foraminiferal record reflects deterioration from “Good” to “Moderate” EcoQS, some comparative information is available. Sars (1879) concluded that a bottom fauna of arctic origin recorded in Bunnefjord represented “surviving remnants of the fauna that once existed there” and that low temperature probably was responsible for their survival. Similar observations were reported for 1897 and 1899 (Hjort, 1900) and prawns were caught during the 1890s. Furthermore, brown clay (i.e., oxic conditions) and large quantities of rotting terrestrial vegetation were present in Hjort’s bottom trawl at 150 m depth in 1897. These observations indicate acceptable oxygen conditions for benthic fauna. However, in connection with the first hydrographical investigations performed in inner Oslofjord, critical bottom water [O2 ] of 0.79 ml/l was recorded at 160 m depth in Bunnefjord in April 1899 (Hjort and Gran, 1900), hence supporting the deteriorating trend shown by the foraminiferal data. From the late 1800s to late 1900s, the population in Oslo grew from about 100,000 to >500,000, and the introduction of WC had increased the transport of waste-water to the fjord (Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002). Limited deep water renewals made Bunnefjord vulnerable to increased organic load and caused the increase in organic matter-supply (Fig. 8) to affect the benthos differently in different parts of the basin. In the deeper parts (Ep1), the Author's personal copy J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 229 Fig. 7. (upper) Cluster analysis of benthic foraminifera in sediment cores from Oslofjord. For explanation of cluster groups 1–3, see text, (lower) diagram showing rough temporal changes in benthic foraminiferal assemblages in sediment cores as defined by cluster analysis. The stations (cores), with water depth indicated, are arranged along a transect from the outermost (seaward) part of the investigated area (left) to the innermost part (right), see map, Fig. 1. Pinkish colors reflect “low oxygen-tolerant” Stainforthia fusiformis-dominated assemblages. *Cores with uncertain ages. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.) ecological quality status (EcoQS) had turned “Poor” by 1936 and “Bad” by 1956 (Fig. 4) indicating a transition to dominantly anoxic conditions. This fits well with the first comprehensive record of H2 S in the deep water in 1950 (Beyer and Føyn, 1951) and with a transition from gray to black sediments at 6 cm depth in an undated core collected at 150 m in 1962 (Risdal, 1963). The culmination of nutrient- and organic matter-supply during the 1960s and 1970s (Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002) is reflected by TOCmaxima in the dated Bunnefjord cores (Fig. 4) and corresponds with eutrophication signals from retrospective lipid studies (PinturierGeiss et al., 2002). At the shallower 85-m (Bunn18x) and 100-m (Cp3) stations deterioration to “Moderate” status occurred later, in the 1940s and around 1960, respectively. The accompanying faunal response included a change from Cassidulina laevigata/Adercotryma wrighti/Nonionella iridea-assemblages via assemblages with more common B. marginata and E. albiumbilicatum to a more anoxia-tolerant, opportunistic S. fusiformis assemblage and the benthic foraminiferal production increased (Fig. 8). These faunal changes characterize environments undergoing eutrophication and gradually developing oxygen deficiency on the sea floor (discussion in Alve et al., 2009a). The core from 58 m water depth (EA1) was not dated but shows the same general pattern in faunal change as the others, probably with a slight time delay as “Moderate” status only occurs in the upper 6 cm of the core (Fig. 4). This time-delay at the shallower site reflects the temporal change in [O2 ] (Fig. 3). Some benthic foraminifera can survive a few weeks of anoxia using nitrate respiration (Risgaard-Petersen et al., 2006) but they cannot survive anoxia for extended periods of time (Alve, 1995b). Consequently, the near lack of foraminiferal tests in sediments deposited in the deepest basin after the 1940s, indicates predominantly anoxic conditions (Fig. 8). The fact that the assemblages prior to the anoxic period do not seem to have developed as high Author's personal copy 230 J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 2000 1975 1950 1925 1900 Year 1900 1875 1850 1825 Cj3 Vestfjord Cp3 1800 Ep1 Bunn18x 1775 1750 1800 Bunnefjord Im4x Ref. station 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 300 Foram accumulation rate (no./cm2/yr) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOC (%) Fig. 8. Benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates (BFAR) and total organic carbon (TOC) in the five successfully dated sediment cores from Oslofjord, Norway. abundance populations as those developed at shallower sites at a later stage (see also Risdal, 1963), indicates that the change to predominantly anoxic conditions happened when relatively moderate amounts of organic material were added to the deep basin floor. In other words, the deep basin was more vulnerable to organic input (i.e., increased oxygen consumption and limited water renewal) than the shallower areas. This is supported by the fact that, as opposed to the development in the deep basin, maximum production of foraminiferal tests occurred at the two shallower 100 m and 85 m stations during the eutrophication period (1960–1970s), i.e., prior to their faunal collapse. The few foraminiferal tests deposited in the deep basin during the predominantly anoxic period may either represent short re-colonization events if the bottom water conditions became re-oxygenated for some months or a year (Alve, 1995b) or they may have been re-deposited, i.e., transported into the basin from shallower areas in connection with e.g., deep-water renewals. Possible positive effects of deep-water renewals during the 1960s were indicated by Skei (personal communication in Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002). The facts that the bottom sediments at the 85 m-station (Bunn18x) started deteriorating some 20 years earlier than those at the deeper 100 m-station (Cp3) and that the former developed a more extremely S. fusiformis-dominated, low diversity assemblage than the latter, indicates local environmental differences. This illustrates the importance of obtaining in situ temporal records. 5.3. Vestfjord The oldest record of bottom-water oxygen concentrations in Vestfjord, 5.8 ml/l from April 1899 (Hjort and Gran, 1900), is in accordance with the foraminiferal data suggesting “reference” conditions of either “High” or “Good” status (Table 4). Gradually deteriorating EcoQS is seen both in the foraminiferal and TOC records of the 85 m (Dm2) and 58 m (Cj3) cores probably reflecting accelerating eutrophication with the most impacted assemblages occurring from the 1970s to 1990s during which time the dissolved [O2 ] also was at its minimum (Fig. 3). This parallels the fact that the catching of prawns, which has been recorded since the early 1950s, failed completely between 1970 and 1986 after which time it has continuously improved (Baalsrud and Magnusson, 2002). As in Bunnefjord, the deterioration was accompanied by increased foraminiferal production (Fig. 8), particularly represented by S. fusiformis and B. marginata. However, except at the 85-m station (Dm2), where “Bad” EcoQS had developed in a semi-enclosed subbasin (Fig. 1, Table 4), the EcoQS in Vestfjord never declined as much as in Bunnefjord. The fact that Vestfjord has been less affected than Bunnefjord is probably because it is (1) closer to the outer Oslofjord where the water is renewed more often and (2) situated SW of the Nesoddtangen-Bygdøy sill further away from the main pollution source, the city of Oslo. Exceptions include sub-basins such as the 85 m-station (Dm2), which is not representative for the Vestfjord, and the Bærum basin (Fig. 5) where the deepest part (i.e., >25 m water depth) has been naturally anoxic since the 1700s (Alve et al., 2009b). Again, this demonstrates the importance of doing in situ investigations to determine local EcoQS both past and present. 5.4. Temporal patterns in EcoQS One of the main advantages of using foraminifera in environmental monitoring is that it allows reconstructions of EcoQS to times before conventional monitoring started (Alve et al., 2009a). In other words, depending on the time covered by the deposits in the sedimentary basin in focus, the method makes it possible to define in situ PaleoEcoQS as far back in time as needed and, thereby, show possible temporal changes in status. This is particularly important in complex systems like estuaries “where a multiplicity of changing environmental parameters causes Author's personal copy J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 natural changes in the faunal composition over small geographic areas” (Alve, 1995a). Many silled fjords have an estuarine circulation pattern and the deep-water at the landward side of the sill(s) may be oxygen depleted or even anoxic for natural reasons (Syvitski et al., 1987). In such cases, oxygen depletion represents the reference conditions. This fact represents a challenge for the authorities when classifying water bodies – is the fjord in focus oxygen depleted for natural reasons or is the depletion due to anthropogenic forcing? If the latter is the case, has human impact affected the whole water column or only parts of it, e.g., the deepest parts, and to what extent? In the present study, the EcoQS defined by the foraminifera is similar to EcoQS defined by soft-bottom macrofauna collected in 1993 and 2009 (data from Olsgard, 1995; NIVA, unpublished; Krajczyk, 2011) at eight stations where data from both groups are available (Fig. 4). This integrates the foraminifera-based retrospective bio-monitoring method with conventional bio-monitoring and strengthens its applicability. The present study also illustrates that even if different diversity values do not reflect exactly the same EcoQS, the temporal pattern revealed by the indices is the same (Fig. 6). Examples include the Vestfjord core (Cj3) which shows a declining status from the reference conditions to the 1980s followed by an improvement during recent decades, the deep Bunnefjord core (Ep1) with a dramatic decline from background to “Bad” conditions from about the 1940s onwards, and the reference core (Im4x) with “High” status throughout the time interval covered, i.e., since the early 1900s. For all cores, the same temporal pattern emerges irrespective of diversity index used. This suggests that for fossil benthic foraminifera, the temporal pattern and scale of change in an index within a core (i.e., at the same site) is more important than which index is being used. However, in order to reach the most sound conclusion, it is still advisable to use and compare the development in several independent indices. The main challenges for the international scientific communities dealing with ecological quality criteria include inter-calibration of biotic indices and agreeing on stations that are most suited to serve as references sites for impacted stations (e.g., Borja et al., 2007, 2010; Gamito, 2008). The method presented here is not limited by these challenges. It shows directly if, when, and to what extent, EcoQS has changed at the investigated sites irrespective of index used and irrespective of former knowledge about the local environmental conditions (Fig. 5). 5.5. Climate change or anthropogenic forcing? Shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) system have been suggested as a cause for changes in the benthic foraminiferal assemblages in the Gullmar Fjord, Sweden (Nordberg et al., 2000; Filipsson and Nordberg, 2004). In the Skagerrak region positive NAO-indices are generally accompanied by westerly winds, preventing the exchange of bottom-water in the fjords, increasing oxygen depletion in the bottom waters, and thereby favoring lowoxygen-tolerant species like S. fusiformis (Nordberg et al., 2000). In the Gullmar Fjord, such a faunal change took place in the 1970s together with a switch to a positive NAO-mode (Nordberg et al., 2000; Filipsson and Nordberg, 2004). Later investigations in the same fjord (Polovodova et al., 2011), however, did not find similar correlations (i.e., change to a “low-oxygen-tolerant fauna”) related to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; about 1000–1350 AD), even though a positive NAO is believed to be the driving force of this warm period as well (Trouet et al., 2009). Erlandsson et al. (2006) found that physical factors (like NOAshifts) could explain a part (40%) of the decreased oxygen minimum concentrations since 1950 in the Gullmar Fjord, related to the timing of renewal of basin water. The main factor (60%) was connected to the increased oxygen consumption, suggesting an import from 231 Skagerrak and a long-term increase in organic production there. Thus climatic “effects” in the Gullmar Fjord cannot be ignored when analyzing variations in oxygen concentrations over longer periods. In the inner Oslofjord we see changes toward a similar “lowoxygen-tolerant” assemblage as in Gullmar Fjord, but here the timing of the changes is diachronous. The cluster analysis shows that a uniform benthic foraminiferal assemblage occupied all the investigated sites inside the Drøbak sill during the last part of the 1800s and beginning of the 1900s (Group 2, Fig. 7). This “reference” assemblage was then successively replaced by a S. fusiformis-dominated “low-oxygen-tolerant” assemblage (Group 1). The replacement started in the deepest part of Bunnefjord in the late 1800s/early 1900s and expanded to shallower depths. However, the expansion does not seem to have followed a simple pattern from deeper to shallower water depths but was rather controlled by local bathymetry/water circulation (e.g., compare the development at the Cj3-site and that in the semi-enclosed Dm2 sub-basin, Table 4). From the 1940s the diversity clearly differs between the Bunnefjord, the Vestfjord and the reference station Im4x (Fig. 6), and the trend at the two former is deteriorating during the next three to four decades. Comparing e.g., the deepest station in the Bunnefjord (Ep1) and the reference station outside the inner fjord (Im4x), both collected at about the same water depth (i.e., 152 and 157 m), their EcoQS differ by about 4 classes in the 1960s (Fig. 6) even though their starting point was almost the same at the beginning of their records. In the inner Oslofjord physical and chemical parameters have been monitored since the mid 1930s. While the foraminiferal record shows the largest faunal changes between the 1930s and 1980s, the temperature was quite stable until the late 1980s and the temperature values co-vary at the same depths in the two basins (Fig. 2). On the other hand, the oxygen concentration differs dramatically between the two basins (Fig. 3). The Bunnefjord experiences oxygen depletion from the 1940s, especially in the deepest parts of the fjord, probably due to increased organic production in the surface waters and limited deep-water water exchange. A much less dramatic development is seen in the Vestfjord. Consequently, the present data indicate that the changes seen in the foraminiferal assemblages between 1930 and 1980 are a result of anthropogenic forcing and not of temperature changes. This is supported by the hydrographic time series (Figs. 2 and 3) and the increasing TOC-values, reaching maxima at the same time as the diversity in the fjord reaches its minimum values in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Since the early 1980s the discharge of phosphorus and nitrogen to the inner Oslofjord has been substantially reduced, causing decreasing algal blooms and thereby reduced flux of organic material to the sea-floor. There is a weak trend indicating higher diversities after the mid 1980s. 6. Conclusions Paleoecological analyses of benthic foraminifera and geochemical parameters in dated sediment cores from Oslofjord, Norway, have been performed in order to test the application of conventional ecological classification systems on fossil foraminiferal data. The overall conclusions are as follows: • Conventional ecological classification systems developed for macrofauna can be applied on fossil assemblages of benthic foraminifera to define in situ paleoecological quality status (PaleoEcoQS). • Comparisons of the results with historical macrofauna data and hydrographical time-series illustrate that the fossil assemblages Author's personal copy 232 J.K. Dolven et al. / Ecological Indicators 29 (2013) 219–233 reflect the temporal development in EcoQS from reference- to present-day conditions. • Although the use of several indices as metrics to characterize EcoQS is advisable, for fossil benthic foraminifera, the temporal pattern and scale of change in one index within a core (i.e., at the same site) is more important for defining possible deviation from reference conditions than which index is being used. • In Oslofjord, EcoQS started declining in the deeper, inner parts during the late 1800s. During the 1900s, the negative trend in EcoQS developed diachronously to shallower depths and other parts of the fjord, depending on local conditions, and the assemblage composition changed accordingly. The declining EcoQS followed the development of bottom-water oxygen-deficiency during decades of stable bottom-water temperatures. The present study illustrates the efficiency of the foraminiferal method and its ability to define temporal in situ changes in EcoQS over centuries. The method should be applicable in other sediment accumulation basins and, as it can provide information about reference conditions in areas where no historical information is available, it should be of particular importance for the implementation of the WFD. Acknowledgements We would like to thank Jonas H. Enoksen, Aina Marie Nordskog, and Mufak Naoroz for performing the metal- and TOC analyses. We are grateful for the assistance from Silvia Hess, Vincent Bouchet and the captain Sindre Holm and his crew during the R/V Trygve Braarud cruises in 2009. We would also like to thank Thorbjørn J. Andersen, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, for dating the cores, Aivo Lepland, the Geological Survey of Norway, whom so kindly provided the Oslofjord map in Fig. 1, Hans Skjerpen for help with the Rprogram, and John Murray for useful comments on the manuscript. The project was funded by “Fagrådet for vann og avløpsteknisk samarbeid i indre Oslofjord”, “Fylkesmannen i Oslo og Akershus”, the Climate and Pollution Agency, the University of Oslo, and by the Norwegian Research Council project PES (No. 184870). Appendix A. Faunal reference list Generic classification follows Loeblich and Tappan (1987). The original descriptions can be found in the Ellis and Messina world catalog of foraminiferal species on www.micropress.org. The species are listed alphabetically. Adercotryma glomeratum (Brady) = Lituola glomerata Brady, 1878. Adercotryma wrighti Brönnimann and Whittaker, 1987. 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