qumng suchother important work as
paving or multiplate arch pipes. Because our data were from a short time-
span, we assumed constant factor
pricesfor capital, material, and man-
power.Thejoint explanation
of the effect of these variables
with
those ex-
amined would require sampling a
longer timespan,with both cross-section and time-seriesdata. Finally, use
of the equationsshouldbe limited to
the events they represent:they may
not work well for predictingcostsof
joint road-and-bridge construction
projects.
An economic interpretation of re-
gressioncoefficients
is possible.Since
the dependentvariableis dollars,and
all independentvariablesare physical
units, the regressioncoefficientsare
implicitunit prices.The equationscan
be used directlyfor costanalysis.For
example,the extra costof adding anothercubicyard of excavation
per mile
is $1.26. The equationscan also be
used to develop average and total
projectcosts.Interestinglyalso, the
coefficients
in the models are numeri-
callycloseto the averageper unit costs
usedby engineersin contractcostappraisals.
bid than was the engineers'costestimate. Thus the regressionequations
representa reasonablyaccurateway
nomena
II. 521 p.
J^c•csoN,D. H. 1977. Some structural compo-
were
not reflected.
For in-
stance,bid pricesmayfollowbusiness
cyclesand the degreeof competition
in the publicworks sector.Also wage
rates, capital costs,and the costsof
materialthat underlythe costcoefficients, can be expectedto changein
the future.
Thus a more exhaustive
studyrelyingon a mixed time-series/
cross-section
samplewould be useful
in capturingthesephenomenon.
However, considerable variation in
forest transportation construction
costscan be explained by carefully
enumeratinginterprojectdifferences
in major physical characteristics.
Using historical market data of construction contracts, we have devel-
oped accuratemethodsfor predicting
road-and-bridgeconstructionproject
costs. Markets develop useful value
information, and this study demonstrates how market
LITERATURE
information
can be
CITED
BELSE¾,
D. A., E. KUH, and R. E. WELSCH.1980.
equations was closer to the winning
Ten-Year
Regression
diagnostics.
Wfiey,New York.
Results
of a
PonderosaPine Progeny Test
in the Black
Hills
Wayne D. Shepperdand Sue E. McElderry, USDA Forest
Service,
Rocky
MountainForest
andRangeExperiment
Station,
Fort Collins, CO 80526.
Law and Econ. 13(1):49-70.
ß1969. Transaction costs, risk aversion and
the choiceof contractualarrangements.J. Law
and Econ. 12(1):23-42.
DEMSETZ,
H. 1964.The exchangeand enforcement
of propertyrights.J. Law and Econ.11:11-26.
CONCLUSIONS
In halfof thesampled
contracts
the
and the theoryof a nonexclusive
resource.J.
of predictingcostsbasedon preliminary and limiteddata. Sincethe data
used in the study were essentially
cross-section (as opposed to time
series)in nature,certaindynamicphe-
employedfor transportationplanning
and development. []
predicted value of the regression
CHEUNG,S N S 1970 The structure of a contract
FERCUSON,
C. E. 1969. Microeconomic theory.
Rev. Ed. Richard D. Erwin, Inc., Homewood,
nentsof contractsas they relateto Canadian
foresttenures.For. Chron. 53(1):33-36.
ß and Alan G. McQuillan. 1979. A tech-
niquefor estimatingtimbervaluebasedupon
tree sizeßmanagementvariablesand market
conditions.
For. Sci. 25:620-26.
JOHNSON,
R. N. 1979. Oral auction versus sealed
bidding. Nat. Res. 19:315-30.
Jot,
ms,J. G., and E.G. SCHUSTER.
1985.An applicationof discreteoptimizationfor developing
economicallyefficient multiple-useprojects.
USDAFor. Serv.Intermt.For.RangeExp.Stn.
INT-178. 16 p.
McQuILL,•'•,A. G. 1981. Evaluatingtimberland
allocation and management intensity. Ph.D.
--.
thesis. Univ. Montana,
1985. Economic Valuation
of Timber Po-
tential for UndevelopedForestLand Using a
Modified Dynamic ProgrammingAlgorithm.
Pap. presentedInt. 85 StorrsSummerConf.
AMSE. Storrs,CT. Mimeo. 18 p.
MERZ•CH,J.P., et al. 1980.Economic
analysisof
timber, Montana WildernessStudy Act areas.
Mimeo. USDA For. Serv. Region1, Missoula,
MT.
R^o, P. and R. L. MILLER.1971. Applied economics. Wadsworth Publishing Company,
Inc., Belmont,CA. 235p.
UNITED STATESDEPARTMENTOF AGRICULTURE. 1979.
Forestservicestandardspecifications
for constructionof roads and bridges. EM-7720-100.
U.S. Gov. Print. Off., Wash.ßDC. 461p.
V^LF2½t1•,
W. H. 1982. Improvingroad location
and network design with digital terrain
models. Mimeo. USDA For. Serv. Region 1,
Missoula, MT.
thispaperthe two areasarereferredto
collectivelyas the BlackHills. Ponderosapine (Pinusponderosa
var. scopulorum
Engelm.)predominates
on all
geologiclandformsin the BlackHills,
of which the central crystallineand
limestoneareas are the most productive (Boldt and Van Deusen 1974).
Ponderosa pine occurs mainly as a
climax specieshere and is usually
found in pure standsthat readily regeneratefrom seed. Even-agedmanagement utilizing the shelterwood
method is the silvicultural technique
mostcommonlyusedin theseforests
(Shepperdet al. 1983);but, plantingis
ABSTRACT. Ten-year survival and TheBlack
Hills
region
ofwesternnecessarywhere fire or tornadoesregrowthof seedlings
from 77 parenttrees South Dakota and northeasternWyosuitin inadequateregeneration(Boldt
fromthroughout
theBlackHills werecom- mingformsan ecologically
and Van Deusen 1974). Seed zones
uniqueforhave been established that include the
pared,usinga cluster-analysis
technique. ested island on the Great Plains.
Fiveclusterswereidentifiedthat account Formed by a domal uplift of the
Black Hills (Cunningham 1975), but
for mostof thevariabilityin survivaland earth's surfacemillions of years ago,
they encompass
relativelylargeareas.
growthof the open-pollinated
families. the Black Hills consist of Precambrian
Otherthanthe testingby Read(1983)
Onecluster,containing
6 families,exhib- graniteand schistssurroundedby a
of severalBlackHills provenancesfor
itedexceptional
survivalandgrowth.Anadaptationon the Great Plains, there
seriesof inward-facinglimestoneand
other,containing12 families,exhibited sandstone cuestas that are progreshas been no comparativetesting of
poorsurvivaland growth. The perfor- sivelyyoungeraway from the central Black Hills seed sources.
manceoffamiliesin thesetwogroupsap- dome (Hunt 1967). The Bear Lodge
We reporthere the resultsof a study
on and near the Black Hills National
pearstoberelatedto location
andelevation Mountains of northeasternWyoming
ofparenttrees.
are geomorphologically
and ecologi- Forest begun in 1967 by JamesVan
Deusen and Charles Boldt, formerly
West.J. Appl.For. 1:79-83,July1986.
callysimilarto the BlackHills, and in
This file was created by scanning the printed publication.
Errors identified by the software have been corrected;
however, some errors may remain.
WJAF 1(3)1986 79
parentsaveraged18 9 m in height,
33.3cmin diameter,and 86 yearsof
sc•enhsts at the Rocky Mountain
Forestand RangeExperimentStation.
Their objectiveswere to determinethe
extentof geneticvariationin silvicul-
age.
rurally importanttraits of ponderosa
pine growingon differentparentmaterials;and to identify superiorgenotypes for use in local tree improvement programs.The study is limited
to open-pollinatedprogeniesof Black
Hills parents,which were plantedat a
central location within
the Hills.
METHODS
Coneswere collectedfrom77 parent
trees in 1967, 1968, and 1969. The seed
treesgrewon a varietyof parentmaterials between
1052 and 2052-m eleva-
Seedlings were grown at the
U.S.D.A.ForestService
Bessey
Tree
Nursery, Halsey, NE. They were
plantedas2-0 stockon the BlackHills
Experimental Forest, 1830-m eleva-
tion, in May 1971.The plantationis
within the centralmetamorphic
geologictype. Twenty-eightseedlings
fromeachparenttreewereplantedin
a randomized,
complete
blockdesign,
with 4-treelinearplotsreplicated7
times.Spacingwas 2.4 m x 2.4 m. A
2.4-m deer-prooffence surrounded
the entireplanting.
Growthcharacteristics
of surviving
tion: granitic, metamorphic (schist),
seedlingswere measuredin 1980, 10
northern
growingseasons
afterfield planting.
and southern
limestone,
northern and southern hogback
(sandstone), and Bear Lodge metamorphic (schist)(Figure 1). Selected
treeswere largerthan their immediate
neighbors of the same age growing
under similarstand conditions.They
were of average or better form and
vigor, with no evidence of insect or
disease damage. The 77 selected
are difficultto interpretin light of the
overall performanceand survival of
specific families, they are not discussedhere. Instead,a two-stepprocedurethat consideredall growth and
survival
characteristics
was
used
to
isolate families of seedlings into
groupsthat performedsimilarlyin the
plantation.
First, a clusteranalysisISODATA
(BallandHall 1967)wasusedto group
family meansby overallperformance
Total height, root-collar diameter,
average crown width (average of
based on an additive
at 90øanglefromwidest),andpercent
live crown, and survival were normal-
widest crown diameter and diameter
live crown were measured on each
tree.
Initially,a two-wayanalysis
of varianceseparatingseedlingsby parent
tree within geologicregionwas per-
Spe
•turgis
index of all vari-
ablesmeasured.Height, basal diameter, average crown width, percent
ized by division, with the standard
deviationof each variableto give all
variablesequalweightin thisanalysis.
Next, a stepwisediscriminantanalysis
was performed on the clustersassigned by ISODATA to analyze the
relative importanceof each variable
for distinguishingamongclustersand
to determinewhethera reweightingof
variableimportanceby discriminant
analysisaffectedthe viabilityof cluster
assignments.
Posteriorprobabilityof
correctclassification,although not a
validationof clusterassignment,
provides informationabout how closely
each family is aligned with the
group to which it was assignedby
Sundance
a
N
formed, but variation among parent
seedsources(famlhes)within regions
was of the sameorder as that among
regions, obscuringmost patterns in
the data. Linear regressionanalysis
also failed to reveal any meaningful
relationships between growth and
parentlocation.Becausetheseresults
x
ISODATA.
5
The aboveanalysisonly considered
growth variables measured in the
plantation. Differencesin climate at
seed source locations also could be exB H
pectedto influenceprogeny perfor-
Base
mance.
On-site
climatic
observations
were not recordedat any of the locations where seed was collected, so
limited climatic information
available
from other sources was utilized. Ele-
x
ß Parent tree location
vationof parenttreelocationswas ob-
x Cluster4 parents
(goodgrowth)
•, Cluster2 parents(poorgrowth)
E] Plantation
Geologic Type
1 Bear Lodge Limestone
2 Bear Lodge Metamorphic
3 Northern Hogback
4
Northern Limestone
$ Metamorphic
6
Granitic
7 Southern Limestone
5 miles
8 Southern Hogback
tainedfromUSGStopographic
maps.
NOAA iso-temperature maps of
average monthly temperatures for
South Dakota and Wyoming were
used to estimatemaximumJuly and
Januarytemperatures,and Isohyetal
maps (Orr 1959)were used to determine yearlyprecipitationat thoselocations.One-way analysisof variance
and Scheff•'smultiple-range
comparisonswere usedto comparetheseclimatic factorsbetween clusters,geologic types, and other progeny
groupings.
RESULTS
Fig. 1. Locationof parenttrees.Good sources(cluster4) were all locatedat high elevations
in the western side of the forest whereas poor sources(cluster 2) were located at low
elevations
80
in the south and east side of the forest.
WJAF 1(3)1986
Growth
and survival of all sources
are summarizedby clusterin Table1.
Plantation average survival, height,
Table1. Clusterand overallmeansfor 10-yeargrowthof an open-pollinated
progenytestof
ponderosa
pinein the BlackHills(rangesin parenthesis).
Clusteraverages
with common
subscripts
are not statisticallydifferentat the 5% confidencelevel.
Average
Basal
Survival
Cluster
Height
(%)
diameter
(m)
Parent
crown
Live
tree
width
crown
(m)
(%)
(cm)
(m)
I (n = 19)
53
1.28
4.5
0.65
88
2 (n = 12)
(36--68)
47
(25- 71)
(1.20--1.35)
0.89
(0.71- 0.97)
(4.3--4.7)
3.4
(3.0- 3.7)
(0.61--0.69)
0.46
(0.33- 0.51)
(87--89)
79
(74- 82)
3 (n = 23)
47
(14--75)
4 (n = 6)
1.14
4.0
0.57
(1.03--1.20)
(3.8--4.2)
(0.52--0.61)
71
(68-86)
5 (n = 17)
1.47a
(1.33-1.62)
39
5.1a
(4.6-5.4)
1.41a
0.77•
92a
0.72•
(4.6-5.3)
(0.68-0.84)
(88-93)
1.22
4.3
0.62
87
(14-86)
(0.71-1.62)
(3.0-5.4)
(0.33-0.85)
(74-94)
gionwas clearlysuperiorin perfo?
progenytestsin the West (Read1983,
Shepperdet al. 1981).All geologicregionshad similarsurvivalcurveswith
mostof the mortalityoccurringwithin
the first 2 years following planting
(Figure 2). Only progeny from the
SouthernHogbackand Metamorphic
regions survived in significantly different numbers(61% vs. 39%,
p = .05).
was
added or deleted from clusters at each
step based on the amount of unaccountedvariabilityamongthosevari-
1548
(1052-2052)
more than 5 clusters did not isolate
other
cluster routine
(1120-1991)
isolatedinto2 of 5 clustersduringthe
fifth step of the analysis. These
clustersalso remained unchanged
throughoutthe additionalstepsof the
analysis. About 77 percent of the
overallvariabilityin growth couldbe
accounted
for by groupingthe sources
in 5 clusters.Splittingthe familiesinto
mance to others. However, progeny
from the Northern Hogback Region
were consistentlyinferior in height,
basaldiameter,and crown development (Table2). Theseseedsourcesare
not spreadthroughoutthe Northern
Hogback, but are clustered near
Sturgis,ND (Figure1).
Averagesurvivalof all sourcesin
the plantationwas 49% after9 years.
The ISODATA
1689a
ablesin the analysis.Those families
with the slowestoverallheight,basal
diameter,andcrowngrowthwereisolated in a singleclusterin the third
step. These clusters remained unchangedas additional clusterswere
addedthroughoutthe analysis.Families with fastestoverallgrowth were
and crown growth were somewhat
less than those for some ponderosa
pine plantationssummarizedby Read
(1983),but within the rangeof datahe
reported.
Although some statistical differenceswere apparent,no geologicre-
allowedto run in a stepwisefashionto
produceup to 10 clusters.Familiesof
progeny from a single parent were
1855•
(1463-2024)
90a
(1.30-1.57)
with
(1098--1915)
(89-94)
49
This was not inconsistent
1482b,
½
(83--87)
(21-54)
Grand mean
1573a,b
(1201--2052)
1284c
(1052- 1540)
85
(0.69-0.85)
4.9•
elevation
additionalsourcesexhibitingpoor or
goodperformance,and thereforewas
judgedunnecessary.
Eachof the five clustersisolatedby
the ISODATA routine was distinctly
different
from
the
other
clusters
(Figure3). The meannormalizeddata
values for cluster 2 were much lower
than the other clusters. Survival of in-
dividualsourcesplayed a role in the
clustering.Clusters 1, 4, and 5 had
significantdifferences
in averagesurvival (Figure3). Poorsurvivalnegated
theotherwisegoodgrowthof cluster5
sourcesin the plantation and ap-
pearedto be responsible
for the separation of clusters 4 and 5.
Discriminantanalysisusing Wilk's
method (Klecka 1975) indicated that
Table2. Meanprogenygrowthandclimaticconditions
whengroupedby geologicregionof
seedsource.Variablemeanswith commonsubscripts
are not statistically
differentat the
10% level of confidence.
GeologicRegion*
M
Height(m)
BasalDiameter(cm)
Crown Width (m)
PercentLiveCrown
PercentSurvival
Elevation(m)
Precipitation(cm)
Max. JulyTemp. (øC)
Max. Jan.Temp. (øC)
1.31b
4.56b
0.67.
88b
41a
1625•
54cd
27.9a
0.8ab
G
1.16•b
4.10•b
0.58•.
86ab
44ab
1582bc
48b
29.9ab
2.1c
NL
SL
1.26b
1.28b
4.43b
4.53b
0.64.
0.66b
88b
88b
56ab
49ab
1727c
1634c
55d
48b
28.4•.
29.8ab
0.7ab
1.1b
BLM
1.36b
4.75b
0.69.
90b
56ab
1763•
52bc
d
28.8•b
0.0a
SH
1.17ab
4.18ab
0.60•.
86ab
61b
1333•b
41•
32.9.
0.8ab
NH
0.97•
3.59a
0.49•
81a
47ab
1106•
51bc
31.2a.
1.7bc
* M = Metamorphic; G = Granitic; NL = Northern Limestone;SL = SouthernLimestone;BLM =
BearlodgeMetamorphic;SH = SouthernHogback;NH = NorthernHogback).
basal diameter
contributed
the most to
clusterassignment,followed by percent live crown, survival, average
crown width and height. The small
portionof variabilityaccountedfor by
heightis a resultof the closecorrelation of heightwith basaldiameter(rE
= 0.98). Little variabilityis accounted
for by heightoncebasaldiameterhas
been taken into consideration.
Discriminantanalysisalso showed
probabilities(0.99+ ) of correctcluster
assignmentfor all familiesin cluster2
and for all but two families in cluster
4. Probabilityof correctclusterassignment for thesefamilieswas only 0.53
and 0.58, respectively,
with clusters1
and 5 being the next most likely as-
signments.
Thesefamilieshad slower
growthratesthan the otherfamiliesin
cluster4, althoughboth were considerably above the overall plantation
mean.In both cases,the high survival
ratesof thesefamiliesprobablykept
themfrombeingassignedto the other
clusters(Table 1).
Several relationships between
growth of progenyin the plantation
and climate at the seed source location
were found,usingthe analysisof variance described earlier. First, differ-
ences in progeny growth were apparent when the average temperatures of parent locations were
comparedto thoseof the plantingsite.
Progenywere assignedto two setsof
groupsin which maximum July and
Januarytemperaturesat parent locationswere (1) coolerthan the plantation site,(2) the sameasthe plantation
site,or (3) warmerthan the plantation
site. Height, diameter, and crown
growthof progenyin group3 wassignificantly different than that of
progenyin groups 1 and 2 when either July or Januaryparent site temperatureswere used. Significantdifferencesin elevationand yearly precipitationat parent sitesalso existed
between progeny groups 1 and 3.
Progeny from cooler more extreme
temperature environments outgrew
those from warmer, less extreme cli-
mates(Table3).
Similar differences are apparent
when maximum July and January
temperaturesare grouped according
to clusterassignmentof progeny in
the plantation. Average July maximum temperaturesat parent tree locationsof the poor performingseedlings in cluster2 were significantly
higher than those at the parent tree
locations
of all other
clusters.
This
31.7øCaveragewas also several degreeswarmerthan the 28.3øC average
Julymaximumat the plantingsite. In
contrast,the fast-growing
seedlings
in
cluster
4 came from
locations
where
the averageJuly maximum temperatures
were
less
than
those
of the
planting site (27.2øCvs. 28.3øC).
WJAF1(3)1986 81
SURVIVBL
BY GEOLOGIO
seedhngsnow canbe made, and controlled crossesamong the best individualsin the plantationwill be possiblein a few years as floweringin-
REGION
creases.
In contrast, cluster2 families should
be ruled
out as sources of seed for
planting in the central Black Hills.
Progenyfrom trees growingon the
Northern Hogback soil type near
Sturgisperformedpoorlyin all measuredgrowthvariables.Their parents'
origin is a small, isolatedpopulation
not actually within the Black Hills,
and their performance
may be related
to inbreedingdepression.
Geologyappearsto indirectlyaffect
survivalof SouthernHogbackfamilies. This regionof the BlackHills receiveslessprecipitationand, because
it is somewhatlower in elevation,may
SH
have a warmer
NL
BLM
SL
NH
climate than the other
soil types.Familiesof SouthernHogback parents ranked first out of the
sevenparentmaterialsin survival,but
fifth in eachof the measuredgrowth
characteristics.This suggeststhat
under droughty conditions,natural
selection favors characters
0.0
12.0
24.0
36.0
48.0
60.0
MON?H$ SINCE
72.0
84.0
96.0
108.0
120.0
PL•N•ING
Fig. 2. Ten-yearsurvivalcurvesof progenygroupedby geologicregionof seedsource.SH
= SouthernHogback;NL = NorthernLimestone;BLM = BearlodgeMetamorphic;SL =
SouthernLimestone;NH = NorthernHogback;G = Granitic;M = Metamorphic.
The oppositeseemsto be true for
January maximum temperatures. In
this case,the fast-growingcluster4
parent locationswere significantly
coolerthanthe slow-growing
cluster2
parent locations (0øCvs. 1.7øC). This
rangeis splitby the0.6øCaverageJanuarymaximumat the plantingsite.
Climaticdifferences
betweenparent
locationsare alsoevidentwhen they
are groupedby geologicregion.Seed
sourcelocations
in the SouthernHogbackregionhave significantly
higher
maximum July temperatures than
those in the Granitic, Metamorphic,
and NorthernLimestone
regions.January maximum temperatures
at
parentsitesin the BearlodgeMountains are coolerthan thoseat parent
sites in the Granitic
and Southern
Limestoneregions.BearlodgeMountain
sites
were
also
cooler
in the
winterthan the plantationsite.
In addition to the indirect relation-
icantlygreaterthan that of progeny
from locationslower than the plantation. Again,thistrendwasreflectedin
the clusterassignment.The average
elevation of seed sources in clusters 2
and3, whichgrewpoorly,wassignificantly lower than that of the fast
growingsourcesin cluster4. Only one
of the sources in cluster 4 was from an
elevationbelowthat of the plantation.
Precipitationreceivedat parent lo-
cationsmay affectgrowthor survival
of progenyin the plantationonlyindirectlythroughthe relationshipto temperature mentioned above. No
growth or survivaldifferenceswere
apparent when progeny were assignedto groupswhere parent locations receivedmore or lessprecipitation than the plantingsite.
DISCUSSION
These 10-yearresultsindicate that
several of the 77 families tested exhibit
ship of elevationand temperature
superiorgrowth and survivalin the
mentioned above, elevation of seed
central
sourcewasdirectlyrelatedto progeny
performance in the plantation.
Height, diameter,and crowngrowth
of progeny from parent locations
higherthantheplantationweresignif-
lized in a ponderosa pine tree-improvement program for the Black
82
WJAF1(3)1986
Black Hills
and could be uti-
Hills. All of the families in cluster 4
should be good candidates. Controlled crossesof parentsof cluster4
related
to
tree survivalrather than rapidity of
growth.
Basedon the climaticcomparisons
discussed
above,it would appearthat
temperatureregime differencesbetween seed sourceand planting site
can be critical to progeny growth,
while elevationand precipitationdifferencesare less directly related.
Moving ponderosapine progeny in
the BlackHills to a temperatureregimeevenslightlycoolerthanthat of
theparentlocationis clearlynot beneficialto overallgrowth.The indirect
relationship between elevation and
temperature
of seedsourcegroupsin
this study supportsthe well-establishedadagethat seedlingswill not
growwell if movedto a higherelevation than their origin.The BlackHills
do not have extreme variations in ele-
vation,but it appearsthat a planting
siteshouldbeno higherthanthelocation where seed was collected.
An interestingpattern is apparent
when the locationof parent treesof
the worst and best clusters(2 and 4)
areplottedon a mapof theBlackHills
region(Figure1). The bestfamiliesare
from parenttreeson the westernside
of theBlackHills andin the Bearlodge
Mountainsimmediatelyto the northwest;poor familiesare in a separate
groupto the east.Sourcesin the Bearlodge Mountainsoccuron siteswith
cooler January maximum temperaturesthan thoseof the plantingsite,
whichmay explainthe betterperformanceof thoseprogenyin the central
BlackHills planting site. July maximum temperaturesat the planting
siteand at parenttreelocationsin the
Bearlodge Mountains are similar,
Cluster
Means
Survival
5O
Height
Basal
E
diameter
4O
Avg. crn. width
30
%livecrown
.o_ 20
,41.1
lO
'"'
0
-10
Cluster
Cluster
1
4
•
Cluster
-20
3
•
a. -30
Cluster
5
Cluster
2
-4O
-5O
Fig. 3. Ten-yearsurvival and growth meansfor eachclusterexpressedas a percentdeviationfrom the overall plantation mean.
Table3. Mean progenygrowthand climaticconditiondata groupedby averagemaximum
Julyand Januarytemperatures
at seedsource.Progenywere assigned
to groupsin which
maximumJulyand Januarytemperatures
at parentlocationswere (1) coolerthanthe
plantationsite,(2) the sameas the plantationsite,or (3) warmerthan the plantationsite.
Variablemeanswith commonsubscripts
are not statistically
differentat the 10% levelof
confidence.
techniquefor summarizingmultivariatedata
Behav. Sci. 12:153-55.
BOLDT,C. E., and J. L. VAN DEUSEN.1974. Silvi-
cultureof ponderosapine in the BlackHills
the statusof our knowledge.USDA For. Serv
Res.Pap. RM-124.45 p.
CUNNINGHAM,R. A. 1975. Provisional tree and
Temperature Group
I
Height (m)
BasalDiameter (cm)
CrownWidth (m)
Percent Live Crown
PercentSurvival
Elevation(m)
1.35b
4.72b
0.70b
89b
47a
1837b
Max JulyTemp.
2
1.32ab
4.67b
0.67b
88ab
51a
1710b
however. The average elevation of
parent trees in the western group
(cluster4) is significantly
higherthan
that of the easterngroup (cluster2)
(Table2), and nearlythe sameas that
of the 1830-m plantation site. The
parentsof cluster2 seedlingsare located from 305 m to 760 rn lower than
the plantation. Planting progeny of
thesetreesat thishigherelevationappearsto have hurt their performance
3
1
Max Jan.Temp.
2
1.15a
4.12a
0.59a
85a
49a
1421a
1.35b
4.72b
0.69b
89b
56a
1822b
1.30b
4.$2b
0.66b
88b
45a
1536a
shrub seed zones for the Great Plains. USDA
3
1.15a
4.10a
0.58a
85a
46a
1446a
of ponderosa pines selected from
throughout the Black Hills, and we
identified potential superior seed
sources for planting in the central
Black Hills of South Dakota.
The rela-
tionshipbetweenthe geneticvariation
of ponderosapine in the BlackHills
and geologicregion or otherenvironmentalparametersremainsunclear.[]
ablegeneticvariationamongprogeny
480 p.
KLECKA,
W. R. 1975. Discriminant analysis. In
SPSSstatistical
packagefor the socialsciences,
Nie, H. H., C. H. Hull, J. G. Jenkins, K. Steinbrenner, and D. H. Bent, eds. Second edition
McGraw-Hill,New York. p. 434-67.
ORR,HOWARD
K. 1959.Precipitation
and streamflow in the Black Hills. USDA For. Serv. Res
Pap. RM-44. 25 p.
RF.
AV, R. A. 1983.Ten-yearperformanceof ponderosapine provenances
in the GreatPlainsof
North America. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap
RM-250.17 p.
SHEPPERD,
W. D., R. M. JEFFERS,
and F. RONCO,JR
1981.An Engelmannspruceseedsourcestudy
in the central Rockies.
USDA
For. Serv. Res
Pap. RM-231.5 p.
SHEPPERD,
W. D., R. R. ALEXANDER,
and F. RONCO,
JR.1983.Silvicultureof ponderosapine in the
centraland southernRockyMountains.USDA
For. Serv.Misc.Publ.RM-TT-4.36 p.
in this case.
In conclusion, we found consider-
For. Serv.Res.Pap.RM-150.15 p.
HUNT,C. G. 1967.Physiographyof the United
States. W. H. Freeman and Company, CA
LITERATURE
CITED
BALL,G. H., and D. J. HALL.1967. A clustering
Sr,mDUCOR,
G. W., and W. G. COCHRAN.
1967. Statistical Methods. Ed. 6. Iowa State Univ. Press,
543 p.
WJAF 1(3)1986 83