Most Cited Journal of Hydrology Articles
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Most Cited Journal of Hydrology Articles
A manifesto for the equifinality thesis
This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification and predictions of
hydrological models given some calibration data. The reasons for the incompleteness of
traditional calibration methods are discussed. The argument is made that the potential for
multiple acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental
Journal of
Hydrology
systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto. It
proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology to make it more rigorous and
outlines some of the research issues still to be resolved. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights
reserved.
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Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis
One of the more important questions in hydrology is: if the climate warms in the future, will
there be an intensification of the water cycle and, if so, the nature of that intensification?
There is considerable interest in this question because an intensification of the water cycle
may lead to changes in water-resource availability, an increase in the frequency and intensity
of tropical storms, floods, and droughts, and an amplification of warming through the water
vapor feedback. Empirical evidence for ongoing intensification of the water cycle would
provide additional support for the theoretical framework that links intensification with
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warming. This paper briefly reviews the current state of science regarding historical trends in
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hydrologic variables, including precipitation, runoff, tropospheric water vapor, soil moisture,
glacier mass balance, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and growing season length. Data are
often incomplete in spatial and temporal domains and regional analyses are variable and
Most Cited Articles
sometimes contradictory; however, the weight of evidence indicates an ongoing intensification
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of the water cycle. In contrast to these trends, the empirical evidence to date does not
consistently support an increase in the frequency or intensity of tropical storms and floods. ©
2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
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A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment
models
Over-parameterisation is a well-known and often described problem in hydrological models,
especially for distributed models. Therefore, methods to reduce the number of parameters via
sensitivity analysis are important for the efficient use of these models. This paper describes a
novel sampling strategy that is a combination of latin-hypercube and one-factor-at-a-time
sampling that allows a global sensitivity analysis for a long list of parameters with only a
limited number of model runs. The method is illustrated with an application of the water flow
and water quality parameters of the distributed water quality program SWAT, considering
flow, suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate and ammonia outputs at
several locations in the Upper North Bosque River catchment in Texas and the Sandusky River
catchment in Ohio. The application indicates that the methodology works successfully. The
results also show that hydrologic parameters are dominant in controlling water quality
predictions. Finally, the sensitivity results are not transferable between basins and thus the
analysis needs to be conducted separately for each study catchment. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All
rights reserved.
A review and evaluation of catchment transit time modeling
Transit time is a fundamental catchment descriptor that reveals information about storage,
flow pathways and source of water in a single characteristic. Given the importance of transit
time, little guidance exists for the application of transit time modeling in complex catchment
systems. This paper presents an evaluation and review of the transit time literature in the
context of catchments and water transit time estimation. It is motivated by new and emerging
interests in transit time estimation in catchment hydrology and the need to distinguish
approaches and assumptions in groundwater applications from catchment applications. The
review is focused on lumped parameter transit time modeling for water draining catchments
and provides a critical analysis of unresolved issues when applied at the catchment-scale.
These issues include: (1) input characterization, (2) recharge estimation, (3) data record
length problems, (4) stream sampling issues, (5) selection of transit time distributions, and
(6) model evaluation. The intent is to promote new advances in catchment hydrology by
clarifying and formalizing the assumptions, limitations, and methodologies in applying transit
time models to catchments. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE
methodology
The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the incoherence, in terms of Bayesian inference, of
the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, introduced by Beven and
Binley in 1992. This results into a reduced capacity of the technique to extract information, in
other words to "learn", from observations. The paper also discusses the implications of this
reduced learning capacity for parameter estimation and hydrological forecasting uncertainty
assessment, which has led to the definition of the "equifinality" principle. The notions of
coherence for learning and prediction processes as well as the value of a statistical
experiment are introduced. These concepts are useful in showing that the GLUE methodology
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Most Cited Journal of Hydrology Articles
Page 4 of 8
corresponding measured variable. These statistics showed excellent results for discharge and
nitrate and quite good results for sediment and total phosphorous. We concluded that: in
watersheds similar to Thur - with good data quality and availability and relatively small model
uncertainty - it is feasible to use SWAT as a flow and transport simulator. This is a precursor
for watershed management studies. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Runoff processes, stream water residence times and controlling landscape
characteristics in a mesoscale catchment: An initial evaluation
Tracer studies, using Gran alkalinity and δ18O, in nested sub-basins of the 230 km2 Feshie
catchment in the Cairngorm mountains, Scotland, were used to characterise hydrology in
terms of groundwater contributions to annual runoff and mean residence times. Relationships
between these fundamental hydrological descriptors and catchment characteristics were
explored with the use of a GIS. Catchment soil distribution-mapped by the UK's Hydrology Of
Soil Type (HOST) digital data base-exerted the strongest influence on flow path partitioning
and mean residence times. Smallest groundwater contributions (∼30-40%) and shortest
residence times (∼2-5 months) were observed in catchments dominated by peat and/or
shallow alpine soils and bedrock. Longer residence times (∼12-15 months) and greater
groundwater contributions (∼45-55%) were observed in catchments dominated by more
freely draining podzolic, sub-alpine and alluvial soils. These different subcatchment responses
were integrated to give intermediate residence times (∼6 months) at the catchment outfall.
The influence of catchment topography and scale appeared to be largely mediated by their
influence on soil cover and distribution. The study illustrates the potential utility of integrating
digital landscape analysis with tracer studies to understand the hydrological functioning of
mesoscale catchments. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): An overview of science strategy
and major results from the second and third workshops
The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at
developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic
models and in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models. The MOPEX
science strategy involves three major steps: data preparation, a priori parameter estimation
methodology development, and demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive
MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and
land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States (US) and in
other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include more basins in all
parts of the world. A number of international MOPEX workshops have been convened to bring
together interested hydrologists and land surface modelers from all over world to exchange
knowledge and experience in developing a priori parameter estimation techniques. This paper
describes the results from the second and third MOPEX workshops. The specific objective of
these workshops is to examine the state of a priori parameter estimation techniques and how
they can be potentially improved with observations from well-monitored hydrologic basins.
Participants of the second and third MOPEX workshops were provided with data from 12
basins in the southeastern US and were asked to carry out a series of numerical experiments
using a priori parameters as well as calibrated parameters developed for their respective
hydrologic models. Different modeling groups carried out all the required experiments
independently using eight different models, and the results from these models have been
assembled for analysis in this paper. This paper presents an overview of the MOPEX
experiment and its design. The main experimental results are analyzed. A key finding is that
existing a priori parameter estimation procedures are problematic and need improvement.
Significant improvement of these procedures may be achieved through model calibration of
well-monitored hydrologic basins. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons
learned, and points out further work and future strategy. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights
reserved.
Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130
years in the Yangtze River basin, China
Annual maximum streamflow and annual maximum water level and their variations exert
most serious influences on human society. In this paper, temporal trends and frequency
changes at three major stations of Yangtze River, i.e. Yichang, Hankou and Datong
representing upper, middle and lower reaches, respectively, were detected with the help of
parametric t-test, Mann-Kendall (MK) analysis and wavelet transform methods. The results
show that: (1) there is a significant upward trend in streamflow at middle Yangtze River,
indicating that flood hazard in the middle reach of the river, the flood rich region, will be more
serious; (2) there is a consistent increase of water level from upper to lower reaches of the
river which does not always coincide with the maximum streamflow variations; and (3) the
periods of water level changes are decreasing over time, indicating the increasing occurrence
frequency of annual maximum water level over time. This phenomenon is more obvious from
upper Yangtze River to the lower Yangtze River. Human activities like destruction of
vegetation, land reclamation and construction of levees reduced lake sizes and filled up the
river bed, reducing the flood storage capacity of lakes and fluvial channel. These factors led to
higher water level even some times the streamflow is small. Human should adjust his activity
to enhance his adaptive capacity to flood hazard in the future. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights
reserved.
http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-hydrology/most-cited-artic... 21/11/2011