Session 3a: Policy
Estimation of the impact of Long and Heavy Vehicles on
future European transport demand and modal split
Kees Verweij, TNO, the Netherlands, kees.verweij@tno.nl
Igor Davydenko, TNO, the Netherlands, igor.davydenko@tno.nl
This paper assesses the impact of adjusting the current 96/53/EC directive of the European
Union with respect to allowing the use of Long and Heavy Vehicles (LHV). Currently the
European directive sets the rules and guidelines over Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) weights
and dimensions. The limits on HGV vehicle size and weight are set up to 18.75 meters long
and 40 tonnes gross weight; in case of intermodal operations the weight maximum is 44
tonnes. This paper is based on inputs for a study that was conducted for the European
Commission in 2008.
The methodology is as follows. First, TNO has estimated the impacts of LHV use on future
European road transport demand and modal shift for the year 2020, also taking into account
the effects on the use of rail and Inland Water Ways (IWW) transport. In Europe, the opinion
of stakeholders is divided over the issue. Broadly speaking, road transport operators and
equipment manufacturers are in favour of using LHVs, while combined transport operators
and environmental groups are strongly opposed. Second, TNO has quantified the economic
impact of using LHVs on future European road transport demand and modal split using two
methods. An analytical method was used for a first estimation and a modelling approach
with the TRANS-TOOLS model was used for detailed calculations.
The analytical method showed a future increase in European road volume up to 11% in 2020,
while the decrease in the number of vehicle kilometres could be 18%. Furthermore, the
analysis shows a decrease in rail freight volume in the order of 5% to 15%, which should be
decreased from the autonomous rail freight growth expectation of 61% between 2005 and
2020.
The detailed modelling approach showed an increase in European road volumes by 1% due to
the use of LHVs and a decrease in the number of vehicle kilometres by 13%. The modelling
approach also shows a more limited impact on the growth of rail and IWW transport:
allowing LHVs on the European roads would decrease rail and IWW volumes in 2020 by
3.8% and 2.9% respectively in comparison to the situation without LHVs.
On the basis of our calculations, we suggest a harmonization of European policies in respect
to allowing LHVs to operate borderless in Europe. In this way, the most important benefits
of LHV operations can be realized. The rail and IWW sector will not suffer much from LHV
use, however LHV would apply some extra competitive pressure on these sectors. The
integral societal benefits of LHV, expressed in the form of price decrease for road transport,
fewer heavy vehicles on the roads and less congestion, less energy consumption and
emissions should justify adjustments of the directive.