Natural and anthropogenic threats challenging white pines of the Lake Tahoe Basin: How do we conserve, monitor, and manage important forest tree species? WPBR Patricia E. Maloney1 and Detlev R. Vogler2 2Institute 1Department of Plant Pathology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 of Forest Genetics, USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Placerville, CA 95667 FIRE MPB CLIMATE HISTORICAL LOGGING Hydrologic functions/ Watershed protection Wildlife habitat Photo: Deems Burton Biological diversity Important food resource WHITE PINE BLISTER RUST Photo: Detlev Vogler Photo: Detlev Vogler Pinus lambertiana (Sugar Pine) <10% White Pines & WPBR in the Lake Tahoe Basin Pinus monticola (Western White Pine) 30% Pinus albicaulis (Whitebark pine) 40% Map courtesy of USFS - LTBMU WPBR: Demographic effects • Juvenile mortality • Reduced fecundity • Lower recruitment • Reducing dispersal and establishment potential X X CLIMATE sugar pine western white whitebark present 2030 Bioclimatic models courtesy of M. Warwell, G. Rehfeldt, & N. Crookston - Rocky Mountain Research Station HISTORICAL LOGGING & SUGAR PINE Glenbrook 1900 Glenbrook 1998 Photos courtesy of David Fournier - LTBMU • Extensive logging dramatically changed composition and structure (Lindström et al. 2000, Manley et al. 2000). • Historical composition: 20-25% (in some locations, Lindström et al. 2000). • Present day composition: 1-6% (Barbour et al. 2002, Lindström et al. 2000). • Genetic and population consequences: effects on population structure and dynamics, but also genetic structure and diversity. Population and genetic losses. • Such losses may affect sugar pine’s resilience to disturbances (e.g., WPBR, MPB, climate). Climate-driven outbreaks of native insects MPB • MPB preferentially attacks drought-stressed trees. • In high elevation forests we see evidence of MPB and mortality (current and historical) but at low levels and often associated with protracted drought periods. Some exceptions. • Currently - areas of MPB activity in the LTBMU (will need to monitor). • California Mediterranean climatic regime and drought adaptation and tolerance. • Water-use efficiency and host suitability to native insects? Fire and Fire Suppression • Catastrophic wildfire and potential loss of important and rare genotypes (e.g., WPBR resistant). • Prescription fires and loss of large reproductive pines (white and yellow). • Fire-climate interactions: lengthening of the fire season (advancing start and ending later). I. CONSERVATION: Genetic Conservation and Genetic Evaluations ¾ Basin-wide cone collections of sugar, western white and whitebark pine. ¾ Seed-bank of white pine species for the LTBMU for conservation, reforestation, and restoration. ¾ WPBR resistance evaluations and screening. (IFG and Placerville Nursery). ¾ Genetic diversity (neutral) of LTBMU white pine populations - standing adults and next generation (NFGEL/IFG). ¾ Future work: Genomic analyses to determine adaptive genetic diversity of important plant traits to determine adaptive potential (Neale Lab-UCD). II. MONITORING: White Pine Populations We will be establishing a robust baseline dataset from which to monitor future changes in: 800 Suwanee Creek 600 Stem count 800 Observed Projection 1983-1988 data Projection 1988-1994 data* Projection 1994-2000 data* 700 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 ¾ Population dynamics & demographic trends 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 700 Observed Projection 1991-1996, 1992-1997 data Projection 1996-2001, 1997-2002 data 600 500 800 Crystal Road 700 500 Hodgedon Meadows 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 800 Observed Projection 1991-1996 data Projection 1996-2001 data 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Crane Creek Observed Projection 1993 - 1998 data 100 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year ¾ Recruitment dynamics (inclusive of cone production) ¾ WPBR resistance frequency ¾ Mortality ¾ Genetic diversity (neutral and adaptive) ¾ MPB ¾ WPBR wave years III. MANAGEMENT: Restoration Recommendations and Potential Mitigation Strategies Based on demographic trends/models and genetic diversity assessments, restoration will be recommended if: 1. Populations are in decline (due to wpbr, climate, wpbr x climate). 2. Depauperate genetic base (e.g., genetic losses due to selective logging). ¾ Deploy genetic material that is broadly adapted, wpbr-resistant, and physiologically (e.g.,WUE) suitable for present and future biotic and abiotic conditions. ¾ Develop appropriate restoration strategies for successful establishment, growth, and resilience.