Thomas Sterner
INDIGO
CHALMERS CLIMATE CALCULATOR
Christian Azar, Daniel Johansson (Frt)
region vs)
EMISSION
S
STOCK OF
C
(1
TEMPERATU
RE
SLASH
EMISSIONS 2%
IMMEDIATELY
Growth and Environment 2020
•Can we increase income 50% &
reduce fossil emissions 50% ?
•Take the transport sector: A
simple modell for fuel demand is
Q = Ya Pb
•Elasticities 1 for income Y, –0.8
for price P
Just raise fuel price 9% p a !
• Because P
= (0.5/1.5)-1/0.8 = 3.95
Petrol
Prices
450
Price of gasoline
400
350
300
ITALY
UK
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
USA
1600
1400
1200
Gasoline per capita
500
Consumption/cap
250
200
150
1000
800
600
100
400
50
200
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Reactions?
Nigeria abolished fuel subsidy Jan 1
S Africa
Figure 1: Fuel expenditure as a share of total household
expenditure
Percentage expenditure share of
fuel
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1
2
3
Poorest
4
5
6
Income decile
7
8
Richest
9
10
Most developing: Progressive
165 $/ton and life goes on...
Parlament also:
• Abolished wealth tax, inheritance tax,
• Modified property tax
• Broadened tax base for VAT etc
• includes Services, energy, télévis., heat
etc
• Reduced profit taxes for companies
• Total 10 billion € (30% environnemental)
This is a big FAT Carbon TAX
• Nordhaus: 17 $/tonne
• Stern speaks of 20-50 $/tonne
• 2008: RGGI 3.80 Chicago 4.50 MDP 17-25
• EU ETS : ~ 5 - 20$
• French Tax: 32 -- 17 €/tonne
• US 10 or 20
• Swedish Tax 165 $/ton + energy tax, fuel
tax VAT etc. Gasoline costs about 9$/gal
Option one
Section divider
CO2 -9% & GDP + 48% 1990 - 2007
160
140
120
100
80
60
GDP
CO2e
40
20
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
District heating 1970-2006
2007 54 TWh (+ 32 % > 1990) & Bio 24 70 %
50 % of total heat. 76 % of flats.
Biomass,
CO2 per GDP indices
120
100
80
C/Y World
C/Y Norway
60
C/Y OECD
C/Y US
40
C/Y Denmark
C/Y UK
C/Y Sweden
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Tons CO2 / $ GDP
1.2
1
0.8
C/Y World
0.6
C/Y US
C/Y OECD
0.4
C/Y UK
C/Y Denmark
0.2
C/Y Norway
C/Y Sweden
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Carbon Tax
CO2
Billion €
3
Tot Env
10
Tot Taxes
GDP
111
367
% Taxes in Sweden 1990
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
% Taxes in Sweden 1990
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Taxes in Sweden did NOT go up in total
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020