Threatened Protection:
The Status of Coastal Protected Areas of the Eastern
United States
Margaret Walls
Resources for the Future
America’s Conservation Investment
• Federal government
• 640 million acres of land
•
397 NPS sites, 560 National Wildlife Refuges, 700 million
acres of BLM lands, 155 National Forests, and more
• 30+ land conservation programs spend >$6
billion/year on land acquisitions and easements
(Walls et al. 2009)
• State government
• 80 state land conservation programs in 43 states
spend ~$4 billion/year on land and easements (Walls
et al. 2009)
• Land trusts
• The 4 largest have protected over 38 million acres
of land
November 2014
R.O.I.
• The return on these investments is sizeable…
• Ecosystem services
•
water purification, temperature regulation, carbon storage, flood
mitigation, storm surge attenuation, wildlife habitat
• Recreational benefits
• In coastal settings, the return is especially high
• Beaches attenuate waves; wetlands reduce duration of surge,
filter water entering estuaries, provide critical habitat, and more
• Recreational benefits:
•
Lots of studies (see library at Center for the Blue Economy). Total
nonmarket value of ocean recreation >$100 billion/year
•
85% of tourism revenues in U.S. are generated in coastal states
•
The 10 National Seashores account for 18 million visitors/year
November 2014
Climate Change
These investments are at risk
• In coastal areas, storms and hurricanes are expected
to worsen in intensity (IPCC 5th Assessment)
• Sea level rise (SLR) projections vary by location
but are between 1 and 6 feet by end of century
for much of the East coast (Nicholls and Cazenave
2011; Slangen et al. 2014; Boesch et al. 2013)
• SLR not just about eventual inundation but also
•
Erosion
•
Increased coastal flooding
•
Damage to wetlands & wetland migration
•
Increased salinity in estuaries & saltwater intrusion in
freshwater ponds & aquifers
November 2014
Study Objectives
• Develop an inventory of coastal
protected lands in shoreline counties
of the 15 East coast states…
• Location, ownership, land cover
• Assess threat from SLR
• Evaluate and compare states’
abilities to adapt
• Financial resources to replace
inundated lands?
• Adaptation strategies/plans?
Joint work with Becky EpanchinNiell, Carolyn Kousky, Supriya
Khadke
November 2014
Shoreline Counties
Shoreline counties are
adjacent to the open
ocean or major
estuaries; residents
are considered “the
population most
directly affected by
the coast” (NOAA
2013)
November 2014
Protected Lands in Shoreline Counties
About 14.5 million acres
of protected lands in
shoreline counties in
these 15 Eastern states
Source: USGS Gap Analysis
Program, Protected Areas
Database of the United States
(PAD-US). Note: DOD lands with
Status Code 4 removed from
analysis.)
November 2014
Protected Lands in Shoreline Counties,
by Owner
About 40% is stateowned; 55% state+local
24% is federal
Federal
FWS
NPS
FS
Other
34.7%
30.0%
26.7%
8.6%
November 2014
Protected Lands by Owner, by State
Land Cover of Protected Lands
Mid-Atlantic, Total
Mid-Atlantic, Protected
protection status and region
Mostly forests
Forests, farms, wetlands
Atlantic, TotalNew England, Protected
Southeast, Total
Mid-Atlantic, Protected
Southeast, Total
heast, Total Mid-Atlantic,
Protected
Developed
Southeast, Protected
Southeast, Protected
Southeast,
Protected
Palustrine Nonforested Wetlands
Cultivated/Pasture
Estuarine Wetlands
Grassland/Herbaceous
Unconsolidated Shore
Forests
Bare Land
Cultivated/Pasture
Scrub/Shrub
Open Water
Developed
Palustrine Forested Wetlands
Mostly wetlands
Grassland/Herbaceous
As we move north
to south…land
Palustrine
Wetlands
coverNonforested
changes from
forest
to wetlands.
Estuarine
Wetlands
Unconsolidated Shore
Forests
Bare Land
Source: 2011 NOAA, Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP)
November 2014
Sea Level Rise
Methodology:
• NOAA’s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
Impacts Viewer
• Uses high-resolution LIDAR data to identify
inundated lands at different increments of SLR
• Accounts for SLR on top of local tidal data through
elevation transformations using NOAA’s VDatum tool
• Limitations:
• “Bath-tub model”…doesn’t account for localized
subsidence, accretion, migration, or for local waterways
• We obtained the data and analyzed a 3 ft SLR
scenario (in all locations)
November 2014
Percentage of Protected Lands within &
outside 3 ft SLR zone
Varies across states…
•
•
•
•
3% in NY, NH, RI
~40% in VA, FL
~50% in NC, GA
56% in SC
November 2014
Land Cover and Sea Level Rise
November 2014
Adaptation: Do States Have the Resources?
Can states replace these lost investments?
• States have a variety of land conservation programs
funded by real estate transfer fees, document
recording fees, license plate charges, lottery
revenues, bonds, sales tax surcharges, and more
• Some programs use money for fee acquisitions and
some for easements
• Type of lands targeted varies by state and by
program
• Some examples:
• Florida Forever
• Maryland’s Program Open Space and Rural Legacy
• New Jersey’s Green Acres
State Conservation Spending vs Inundated
Acreage of State Protected Lands
Florida (not on graph):
$246 million/ 1.9 mill
inundated acres
Source: Trust for Public Land’s Conservation Almanac
November 2014
Adaptation: Are States Planning?
• 9 of the 15 states have adaptation plans (Georgetown
Climate Center 2014)
• 7 have set specific goals for oceans and coasts
• Most have exhibited very little or no progress toward stated
goals
• States facing the biggest loss of land to SLR have no
plans
No plan
Planning underway
North Carolina
Delaware
South Carolina
New Jersey
Georgia
Rhode Island
• Even among states with plans, protected lands are
not a point of emphasis
November 2014
Maryland
Seems to be doing the most…
• Blue Infrastructure Near-Shore Assessments: detailed
spatial evaluation of coastal habitat and natural
resources “to incorporate estuarine priorities into
targeting and land use planning”
• “Coastal Atlas”, estuaries mapping tool
• With SLR, new wetland areas identified
• Greenprint tool, developed for use in conservation
targeting, revised to remove lands that are likely to be
subject to SLR by 2050 “to avoid spending limited
funding in areas likely to be submerged.”
November 2014
Thank you!
Comments/suggestions/questions:
walls@rff.org
November 2014