4 August 2004
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Iraq Status
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Highlights
National Conference Postponed
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
• The IIG, at the request of the United Nations, postponed for two weeks the
National Conference in an effort to secure broader representation from varying
Iraqi political groups.
NATO Participation Agreement Reached
• NATO announced an agreement on establishing a Training Implementation
Mission in Iraq. NATO will begin to coordinate training for Iraqi security forces
including selected Iraqi headquarters personnel inside Iraq and help identify
personnel for training outside Iraq.
Powell Visit to Baghdad
• Secretary of State Powell traveled to Baghdad this past week visiting with IIG
leaders and US Mission personnel.
Iraqi National Guard and Police Service
S
T
A
T
E
• The Iraqi National Guard (ING) and Iraqi Police Service conducted a number of
successful operations last week including the discovery of large insurgent
weapons caches and a sophisticated terrorist safe house.
N/P
2
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Governance - Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
National Conference:
• The IIG, at the request of the United Nations, postponed for two weeks the
National Conference in an effort to secure broader representation from varying
Iraqi political groups.
International Cooperation:
• NATO announced an agreement on establishing a Training Implementation
Mission in Iraq. The mission will be working closely with the Iraqi authorities to
help them develop their security structures, in particular in the Ministry of Defense
and military headquarters. NATO will also begin training selected Iraqi
headquarters personnel inside Iraq and help identify personnel for training outside
Iraq.
• Secretary of State Colin Powell and Saudi leaders discussed the Saudi proposal
for a contribution of Islamic troops to Iraq stabilization efforts.
• Prime Minister Allawi concluded his visit with leaders of several Arab countries this
week. Areas of discussions included security cooperation and assistance.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Governance - Developments (Cont)
Capacity Building:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• The State Department is promoting capacity building and democracy through a
US-based program for Iraqis.
O
F
• USAID continues Democracy Dialogue Activities (DDA) across Iraq
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
− Civil Society and Civic Education (July 24-August 14): Exploring how civic
education provides the the underpinnings for successful participation in a
democratic form of government by developing an informed, effective and
responsible citizenry. Participants include mayors, governors and civil
society leaders.
• USAID continues capacity building activities for local government:
− Management training seminars for local government officials are improving
the delivery of essential services.
– Promotes civic participation and increases Iraqis’ understanding of
democratic principles and the political process.
Polling Data:
• Latest USG poll (mid July) indicates that the IIG is still popular with the Iraqi
people, that security is the number one priority, and that the IIG’s actions get
more positive than negative remarks.
4
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Essential Services - Water and Sanitation
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
• Rehabilitation of a water treatment plant in a poor area of Baghdad governorate is
complete.
– Nearly 1 million residents are now benefiting from the potable water.
– Before rehabilitation, the plant was operating at 55-60% of capacity of its 3000
m3/day, but now operates at full capacity.
• Japan is funding an $11 million UN project to help restore the marshlands of
southern Iraq, which were deliberately drained by Saddam Hussein.
– Will support sustainable development through environmentally sound
technologies, providing drinking water, sanitation and pilot wetland restoration
for the Marsh Arabs.
– $3.68 million of the Japanese aid package will be used to buy 26 water trucks
and 304 water tanks for the al-Muthanna province’s water department.
5
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Telecommunications
Telephone Subscribers (Fixed and Cell)
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
4
(As of
18 Jul)
Ju
ly_
0
n_
04
Ju
ay
_0
4
M
Ap
r
_0
4
4
ar
_0
M
04
Fe
b_
n_
04
Ja
3
Fixed Phones
N/P
M
S
T
A
T
E
ar
_
03
(P
re
O
F
Cell Phones
De
c_
0
-W
ar
)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over 1,345,863 (including
523,966 cell phone subscribers) - 61.6% above pre-war levels.
• As of 18 Jul, there were 75,000 internet subscribers in Baghdad.
– Pre-war, there was limited service, with 3,000 internet and 8,000 e-mail only
accounts in 2002.
6
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Essential Services - Food Security
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
N/P
ta l
To
nt
ge
te r
De
W
ea
n in
gC
er
ea
u la
or m
tF
an
In f
ls
So
ap
lt
Sa
lk
Mi
a
Te
ga
/O
ee
Su
il
s
Gh
Ri
ig n
W
he
at
at
he
re
lW
Fo
na
t io
Na
S
T
A
T
E
r
0%
ls e
• The goal of the
Ministry of Trade
is to provide
sufficient ration
stocks for the
current month
plus a threemonth buffer.
ce
O
F
Public Distribution System Status
Pu
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• Chart below shows percentage of estimated requirements for Public Distribution
System (PDS) goods from transition on 28 Jun 04 forward.
Opening Stocks
New Procurements MOT
OFF Unconfirmed Contracts
7
Scheduled Arrivals Under Existing Contracts (OFF)
New Procurements WFP
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Essential Services - Food Security (Cont)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
• The WFP pipeline indicates possible shortfalls in the following commodities over
the course of the next three months.
– National wheat (national harvest figures are not yet available), pulses, ghee,
milk, infant formula, soap and detergent.
• MOT has issued tenders for commodities such as infant formula, cheese, and
tomato paste into the food ration basket; cheese and tomato paste have been
introduced to reduce and offset the individual ration of pulses.
• WFP will stop all food shipments to Iraq in August. The pipeline will be reliant on
Ministry of Trade procurement thereafter.
• For the period of Jul through Sep, WFP projects 35,632 metric tons (mt) of Oil for
Food commodity arrivals, which could be augmented by 35,000 mt of Indian
wheat.
8
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Essential Services - Health Care
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
• USAID provided $1 million worth of equipment and supplies for Iraqis to better
detect, treat, and control disease nationwide.
– 408,000 people will benefit annually.
– Equipment and supplies, which replaced those looted after the recent conflict,
include microscopes, freezers and refrigerators, centrifuges, lab sinks, tissue
processors, slides, petri dishes, specialized testing agents, and an Amino Acid
Analyzer – the first of its kind in Iraq.
• Over 5 million children between the ages of six and 12 have been immunized for
Measles, Mumps, and Rubella.
• Over 3 million children under five years of age have been vaccinated since Jun
03.
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
9
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Essential Services - Education
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
• More than 67,000 Iraqi school children at 90 schools in Ninawa’ Governorate will
now have clean drinking water and functioning toilets when they return to school in
September 04.
– In cooperation with the Ninawa’ Directorate of Education, the project supplied
water tanks, installed water coolers, repainted bathrooms and toilets, installed
new sanitary fittings and wash basins, replaced damaged and broken doors,
fixed broken windows and tiled floors.
• Over 32,000 secondary school teachers and 3,000 supervisors have been trained
as part of effort to upgrade the quality of education.
• Nearly 2,500 schools have been rehabilitated to date and an additional 1,200 are
expected to be complete by the end of the year.
– In Basrah governorate, USAID is working with the MOE to inventory the
number of schools and assess immediate rehabilitation needs.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Project and Contracting Office (PCO) Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
• To date, the PCO has issued 201 task orders, out of a total of 250 (83%)
– These task orders cover 2,083 projects nationwide, out of a total 2,300
(90%)
– Nearly 37% of the $18.4 billion supplemental is contractually obligated
– Over 61% of apportioned funds is contractually obligated
• The AIRP is meeting urgent local needs across Iraq:
– Projects cover: water and sanitation, health, education, building, roads,
power, telecommunications, and various other
– 196 projects are underway out of 369
– Over 16,300 Iraqis have been directly employed on AIRP projects
– Sadr City projects continue to employ over 3,000 Iraqi workers
11
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Project and Contracting Office (PCO)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Obligate
d
2207
Report
Apportioned
Committed
$M
$M
Security and Law Enforcement
3,235
2,976
2,636
1,701
272
Electricity Sector
5,465
2,538
2,446
1,896
184
Oil Infrastructure
1,701
1,701
1,598
975
25
Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society (less
Democracy)
1,033
825
714
386
23
Democracy
451
451
420
309
13
Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance
259
259
238
118
14
Roads, Bridges, and Construction
368
270
255
124
1
Health Care
786
577
560
376
0
Transportation and Telecommunications
500
467
418
180
4
4,247
892
842
632
5
Private Sector Development
183
135
100
47
16
Admin Expense (USAID, CPA Successor)
213
29
63*
60*
39*
TOTAL
18,439
11,120
10,290
6,804
596
CONSTRUCTION
12,406
5,815
5,815
4,334
5,582
4,854
4,055
2,161
451
451
420
309
18,439
11,120
10,290
6,804
Sector
Water Resources and Sanitation
NON-CONSTRUCTION
DEMOCRACY
Total
Data as of 27 Jul
12
$M
Expenditure
$M
596
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Economy
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
• On 21 Jul, estimated crude oil export revenue was approximately $9.2 billion for
2004.
• At the New Iraqi Dinar (NID) auction on July 29, the settlement price was 1,460
dinars per dollar, the same as the previous day and unchanged since June 16.
• The Ministry of Finance offered ID 50 billion (about USD 34 million) in government
securities in their second bond auction on Sunday, August 1.
• The ISX retreated during the past two sessions by roughly 16%, however, the
overall market’s value has increased by 51% since trading commenced a month
ago.
• Nearly 3,000 micro-credit loans totaling over $6 million have been made to Iraqi
businesses.
– Provides credit to financially viable micro and small businesses.
13
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Economy (Cont)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
• Since the Iraq Stock Exchange opened on 24 Jun, trading volume has grown
significantly.
– The exchange is open two days a week for two hours per day.
– There are now 27 listed companies traded and officials are hoping this
number will grow to 120 in the next 45 days.
• USAID is assisting the Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MOLSA) to
develop a vocational training program that will help the Iraqi government address
Iraq’s high unemployment rate.
• USAID is currently supporting the development of business skills among Iraq’s
small and medium sized businesses.
– By Fall 04, USAID will expand outreach and the number of existing Iraqi
Business Centers, which provide training, consulting, and business
entrepreneurship services.
14
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Electricity Overview
Mega Watt Hour Production
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
140000
120000
100000
80000
J une Go al MWH
MW Hrs Actual
MW Hrs 7 Day Av.
60000
40000
20000
0
01
-M
11 ar
-M
21 ar
-M
31 ar
-M
10 ar
-A
p
20 r
-A
p
30 r
-A
10 pr
-M
20 ay
-M
30 ay
-M
a
09 y
-J
u
19 n
-J
u
29 n
-J
un
09
-J
u
19 l
-J
ul
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• Summer maintenance program continues resulting in about 465 MW of
generation capacity currently offline for scheduled and 603 MW for unscheduled
maintenance
N/P Data as of 29 Jul 04
15
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Power Production
Generation By Region
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
North
South
Off Grid Gen
Central
Syria
Turkey
6000
5000
MW Peak
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
04
20
1/
/2
07
04
20
7/
/0
07
04
20
3/
/2
06
04
20
9/
/0
06
04
20
6/
/2
05
04
20
2/
/1
05
04
20
8/
/2
04
04
20
4/
/1
04
04
20
1/
/3
03
04
20
7/
/1
03
04
20
3/
/0
03
04
20
8/
/1
02
04
20
4/
/0
02
04
20
1/
/2
01
04
20
7/
/0
01
03
20
4/
/2
12
03
20
0/
/1
12
03
20
6/
/2
11
03
20
2/
/1
11
03
20
9/
/2
10
03
20
5/
/1
10
03
20
1/
/0
10
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• Record Production: 13 Jul reached Peak Generation of 5,063 MW or 109,177
MWH
N/P Data as of 29 Jul 04
16
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Hours of Power
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P Data as of 29 Jul 04
17
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Crude Oil Production
3.00
MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD
O
F
2.50
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
4-10 June
11-17 June
18-24 June
25 June - 1 July
Production
2-8 July
9-15 July
16-22 July
23-29 July
Target
• Weekly Average of 2.303 MBPD Is Below Target of 2.5 MBPD
• Long Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 - 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War Capacity)
• Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03
• Post-War Peak: 2.595 MBPD on 16 Apr 04
18
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Monthly Export: Volume & Revenue
Revenue ($B)
O
F
$2.00
2.000
1.825
$1.80
N/P
1.537
$1.60
1.403
1.380
$1.40
1.400
1.382
1.149
1.200
$1.20
0.983
1.148
1.000
0.800
$1.61
0.646
0.600
$1.21
0.200
$0.36
$1.26
$0.80
$1.36
$1.28
$1.10
$1.13
$0.89
0.322
0.400
$1.26
$1.50
$1.00
Revenue ($Billions)
1.541
1.524
1.600
$0.60
$0.40
$0.73
0.200
S
T
A
T
E
1.804
1.800
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Iraqi Export (MBPD)
$0.44
$0.20
$0.20
$0.00
0.000
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
• Current Monthly Average: 1.403 MBPD
• Current Monthly Revenue: $1.13B
19
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Diesel Production & Imports
Production
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Target
Stocks
25.0
20
18
20.0
16
14
15.0
12
Ministry of Oil (MOO)
Goal: 18.0 M Liters
10
10.0
8
6
5.0
Days of Stocks (National)
Millions of Liters Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import
4
2
0.0
4-10 June
0
11-17 June
18-24 June
25 June - 1 July
2-8 July
9-15 July
16-22 July
23-29 July
• This week’s average production and imports are 110% of goal
• National diesel stock is 18 days
20
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Kerosene Production & Imports
Production
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Target
Stocks
9.0
40
8.0
35
7.0
30
6.0
25
5.0
20
4.0
15
3.0
Ministry of Oil (MOO)
Goal: 5.0 M Liters
2.0
10
1.0
5
0.0
4-10 June
0
11-17 June
18-24 June
25 June - 1 July
2-8 July
9-15 July
16-22 July
Days of Stock (National)
Millions of Liters Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import
23-29 July
• This week’s average production and imports are 168% of goal
• National kerosene stock is 33 days
21
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Gasoline / Benzene Production & Imports
Production
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Target
Stocks
30.0
25
Ministry of Oil (MOO) Goal:
22.0 M Liters
20
20.0
15
15.0
10
10.0
5
5.0
0.0
4-10 June
Days of Stock (National)
25.0
Millions of Liters Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import
0
11-17 June
18-24 June
25 June - 1 July
2-8 July
9-15 July
16-22 July
23-29 July
• This week’s average production and imports are 111% of goal
• National benzene stock is 15 days
22
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4 August 2004
WORKING PAPERS
Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production & Imports
Production
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Target
Stocks
5000
50
Ministry of Oil (MOO)
Goal: 4,000 Tons
45
4000
40
3500
35
3000
30
2500
25
2000
20
1500
15
1000
10
500
0
4-10 June
Days of Stock (National)
4500
Tons Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import
5
0
11-17 June
18-24 June
25 June - 1 July
2-8 July
9-15 July
16-22 July
23-29 July
• This week’s average production and imports are 117% of goal
• National LPG stock is 35 days
23
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Security - Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
• The Iraqi National Guard (ING) and Iraqi Police Service conducted a number of
successful operations last week including the discovery of large insurgent
weapons caches and a sophisticated terrorist safe house.
– One haul included MIG-21 engines, 120mm BM-21 rockets, 60mm mortar
rounds, land mines, 120mm artillery shells, mortar charges, a truck and
5,000 boxes of 14.55mm rounds.
– Another other haul yielded 10 type-63 107mm rockets, two 120mm mortar
rounds, a rocket propelled grenade launcher, two rocket propelled grenades,
various fuses and 26 improvised explosive devise switches.
• The Iraqi Intervention Forces’ 4th Battalion deployed to a southern Baghdad
base this week for stability and support operations as part of the Iraqi
government’s continued effort to provide security to the nation.
– This is one of three Iraqi battalions being employed in the Baghdad area of
operations.
S
T
A
T
E
• Lead elements of the Iraqi army’s 5th Battalion deployed to a base in Western
Baghdad this week for force protection operations at the base as part of the
Iraqi government’s continued effort to provide security to the nation.
N/P
24
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Security - Developments (Cont.)
• Chart below shows significant insurgent activities in Iraq to 24 July 2004.
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Significant Acts
70
60
50
Total SIGACTS
O
F
• Includes attacks using improvised explosive devices (IED), vehicle-borne IED,
mortars, rocket propelled grenades (RPG), and improvised rockets.
40
30
Operation Iron
Hammer
Announced
Fallujah
and al-Sadr
Sedition
Transition to
Interim
Government
Anniversary
of Invasion
20
Interim
Government
Announced
10
0
10
/1
8/
20
03
11
/1
/2
00
11
3
/1
5/
20
11
03
/2
9/
20
12
03
/1
3/
20
12
03
/2
7/
20
0
1/
10 3
/2
00
1/
4
24
/2
00
4
2/
7/
20
0
2/
21 4
/2
00
4
3/
6/
20
0
3/
20 4
/2
00
4
4/
3/
20
0
4/
17 4
/2
00
4
5/
1/
20
0
5/
15 4
/2
00
5/
29 4
/2
00
6/
12 4
/2
00
6/
26 4
/2
00
7/
10 4
/2
00
7/
24 4
/2
00
4
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Date
25
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Stability Contributors - OIF
Countries with forces in Iraq
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
P
30
Albania
Australia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Denmark
El Salvador
Estonia
Georgia
Hungary
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Korea
Latvia
Data as of 30 Jul 04
Countries committed to
provide forces for Iraq
TOTAL ~23K
1
Lithuania
Macedonia
Mongolia
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Singapore
Slovakia
Thailand
Tonga
Ukraine
UK
31 Countries
Potentially Supporting
Iraqi Stability and
Humanitarian Relief
26
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WORKING PAPERS
4 August 2004
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
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• Development, coordination and distribution responsibilities for the Iraq Weekly
Status Report have been transferred from the Department of Defense to the
Department of State.
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are often cited in the
“Notes Page” section (View Æ Notes Page) of this brief.
• Please forward all inquiries to NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.sgov.gov
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