UNCLASSIFIED
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
18 August 2004
Iraq Weekly Status
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Table of Contents
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
SECTION
SLIDE(S)
1.0 Highlights
3-4
2.0 Political Affairs
2.1 Governance
5-6
3.0 Economic Affairs
3.1 Economy
7-8
3.2 Essential Services
9-11
3.3 Electricity and Power
12-13
3.4 Oil
14-17
4.0 Reconstruction
4.1 Project and Contracting Office (PCO)
18-19
5.0 Security
5.1 Security and Stability
20-24
6.0 General Information
25
2
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Highlights
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Political/Governance
Fighting in Najaf Resumes:
• After a temporary truce Friday, fighting resumed Sunday due to the breakdown of
peace talks between the IIG and Sadr loyalists. Coalition and Iraqi forces are
trying to stabilize and end the fighting in Najaf without involving the Imam Ali
shrine, one of the holiest sites in Shiite Islam.
Iraq National Conference Convenes:
• The National Conference began Sunday in Baghdad, as scheduled. Over 1,100
arrived to help elect a 100-member interim national assembly. A delegation from
the conference traveled to Najaf on Tuesday in hopes of meeting with Sadr.
Economic
Oil Production and Exports
• As of Aug 12, oil revenue was estimated at $9.8 billion.
• Current crude oil prices are averaging $35/barrel, tracking very robust
international prices.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Highlights (cont.)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Reconstruction
Accelerated Iraqi Reconstruction Program (AIRP)
• AIRP is now employing 17,568 Iraqis throughout some 357 projects.
Security
Implications of Najaf Conflict
• There has been a noticeable spike in acts against the Coalition due largely to
heavy fighting with Al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army forces in Najaf after Najaf’s Governor
requested Coalition assistance.
Security Forces Update
• Iraqi Security Forces capabilities continue to improve and recruiting efforts
continue to be very successful, but performance varies by region. 92,406 trained
Iraqis are on duty and an additional 17,024 are in training.
4
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Governance - Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
National Conference:
• Despite rumors of its postponement due to boycott threats and violence around
Iraq, the National Conference began Sunday in Baghdad, as scheduled. Of the
1,300 delegates invited to attend the three-day conference, over 1,100 arrived to
help elect a 100-member interim national assembly.
• A delegation of Iraqis from the National Conference arrived in Najaf Tuesday to
negotiate peace with Sadr, delaying votes until their return to Baghdad. The
delegation so far has not been able to meet with Sadr.
NATO Support in Iraq:
• The core of the NATO Training Implementation Mission arrived in Baghdad. The
team which will initially consist of about 50 staff, will train Iraqi forces and help
rebuild the Defense Ministry and military headquarters.
UN extends UNAMI:
• The United Nations Security Council extended the United Nations Assistance
Mission for Iraq for one year in a unanimous vote August 11. UNAMI plays a
leading role in helping organize elections and coordinate humanitarian operations
in Iraq.
5
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Governance - Developments (cont.)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Capacity Building:
• The State Department is promoting capacity building and democracy through a
US-based program for Iraqis.
– "NGO Management" International Visitor Program (August 14-Sept 3):
Highlighting the role that the non-profit sector plays in U.S. society, and the
many ways that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) promote
democracy and civic involvement. USAID continues capacity building
activities for local government:
• USAID continues Democracy Dialogue Activities (DDA) across Iraq
– Promotes civic participation and increases Iraqis’ understanding of
democratic principles and the political process.
First American Corner in Iraq Opens:
• Ambassador Negroponte participated in a ribbon-cutting ceremony for the first
“American Corner” resource center at the Sulaymaniyah Public Library on August
8, attracting significant media coverage. The center is the first of 15 “American
Corners” in Iraq and is scheduled to open to the public by the end of August.
6
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Economy
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Oil Update
• As of Aug 12, oil revenue was estimated at $9.8 billion.
• Current crude oil prices are averaging $35/barrel, tracking very robust
international prices. The increased revenue will defray some of the forgone
exports, due to recent attacks on pipelines.
Employment Update
Number of Iraqis employed by each sector/project
I r a q i s la s t
w eek
S e c to r
B u i ld i n g s , H e a l t h & E d u c a t i o n
E le c t r i c i t y
O il
P u b li c W o r k s & W a t e r
S e c u rit y & J u s ti c e
T ra n s p o rta ti o n & C o m m u n ic a tio n s
A IR P
716
2 ,9 9 8
570
2 ,8 4 1
4 ,0 5 8
150
1 7 ,2 7 3
I r a q is t h is
w eek
1 ,7 3 8
260 *
574
3 ,4 5 8
4 ,0 7 7
186
1 7 ,5 6 8
% In c re a s e o n
w eek
1 4 2 .7 %
- 9 1 .3 %
0 .7 %
2 1 .7 %
0 .5 %
2 4 .0 %
1 .7 %
P C O W e e k ly S u r v e y T O T A L
2 8 ,6 0 6
2 7 ,8 6 1
-2 . 6 %
U S A ID
3 9 ,8 0 0
5 1 ,4 5 0
2 9 .3 %
M IL C O N T O T A L
910
475
- 4 7 .8 %
GRAN D TOTAL
6 9 ,3 1 6
7 9 ,7 8 6
15 .1%
Data as of 12 Aug
7
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Economy – Private Sector Development
Joint Economic Commission (JEC)
D • The JEC Conference (Baghdad, mid-September) will convene USG and IIG officials to
E
clarify metrics on a range of private sector development issues including:
P
– Fiscal Policy & Sustainability
A
– Subsidy Reform
R
– Private Sector Access to Credit
T
M
– Agricultural Policy
E
– SOE Restoration & Reform
N
– Anti-Corruption Programs
T
– Economic Statistics & Reporting, and a host of other issues
O Volunteers for Economic Growth Alliance (VEGA) Iraq Private Sector Development Initiative
F
• Developed by USAID: Establishes new business centers/works through existing centers
throughout Iraq to provide training and technical assistance to businesses of all sizes
S
– VEGA will leverage access to over 20,000 volunteer advisors and experts covering
T
all industrial and business sectors
A
T
– Will provide Iraqi businesses with training courses, business kits, technical and
E
competition assistance for procurements under supplemental funds
8
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Essential Services - Food Security
WFP Program
D • This chart is the current projection of monthly closing stocks in days of supply of the Public
Distribution System through the end of 2004. The CPA’s goal was to establish a three-month
E
buffer stock. The horizontal axis is placed at 30 days stock to reflect a minimum goal of
P
enough stock on hand to meet ration requirements of the proceeding month.
A
R 18 0
T 15 0
M 12 0
E
90
N
60
T
30
O
F
0
-3 0
Detergent
Soap
Weaning
Cereals
Infant
Formula
Salt
Milk
Tea
Sugar
Ghee/Oil
Pulses
Rice
Foreign
Wheat
National
Wheat
-6 0
S
-9 0
T
A -1 2 0
Decem ber
N o ve m b e r
O c to b e r
S e p tem b er
A u g u st
T
E • The last WFP- procured wheat shipment arrived on August 12 at Aqaba, there will be no
N/P
more WFP wheat arriving in Iraq. As of September, the pipeline will be solely reliant on
MOT-procured commodities.
9
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Essential Services - Health Care & Education
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Health Care
• Continued progress is being made on the 150 Primary Health Centers (PHCs),
reported on last week, with two more groundbreakings held this week
• In the past two months, 4,304 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in rural areas of
Diyala’ Governorate have received health care services from three mobile health
teams supported by a U.S. NGO and USAID
• Among this IDP population, 946 children < 5 yrs old received medical screening
and treatment. All children who had not received vaccinations against measles,
mumps and rubella (MMR) and hepatitis were vaccinated
• The health education campaign on pregnancy, breastfeeding, and assisted
deliveries benefited 127 pregnant women who received antenatal care
• Work has begun in Sadr City on the renovation of the first of 16 maternal-child
hospitals throughout Iraq to undergo major renovation and re-equipping with U.S.
Supplemental funds
Education
• Work is underway on 10 public schools throughout the country
• K-12 schools will open September 18, 2004, an improvement from last year’s
delayed start of October 1, due to rehabilitation projects
10
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Essential Services - Health Care & Education (cont.)
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
31
DE
C0
4
04
15
NO
V
CT
04
15
O
4
Planned Buildings, Health & Education
15
SE
P0
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Buildings
5/
$33.6M
5/
$33.6M
5/
$33.6M
5/
$33.6M
Health
23 /
$23.1M
23 /
$23.1M
61 /
$59.4M
61 /
$59.4M
Education
195 /
$16.9M
321 /
$25.5M
440 /
$34.0M
580 /
$42.3M
223 /
349 /
506 /
646 /
TOTAL
$73.6M
$82.2M
$127.0M
$135.3M
Note : Each cell represents Projects / Cost of Projects
11
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Electricity Overview
Megawatt Hour Production (MWH)
Goal
MW Hrs Actual
MW Hrs 7 Day Av.
Pre-w ar MWH (Est.)
140,000
120,000
100,000
MWH
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
80,000
60,000
40,000
O
F
20,000
20
/0
8/
08
07
/2
9/
20
04
04
04
20
/1
9/
07
07
/0
9/
20
20
06
/2
9/
20
/1
9/
04
04
04
04
06
06
/0
9/
20
20
/3
0/
05
05
/2
0/
20
04
04
04
20
05
/1
0/
20
/3
0/
04
/2
0/
20
04
04
04
04
04
/1
0/
20
20
/3
1/
03
/2
1/
20
04
04
04
03
03
/1
1/
20
20
/0
1/
03
S
T
A
T
E
04
-
• Summer maintenance program continues resulting in about 545 MW of generation
capacity currently offline for scheduled and 184 MW for unscheduled maintenance.
• 7 Day Average: 111,624 MWH
12
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Hours of Power
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
13
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Crude Oil Production
3.00
O
F
MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD
2.50
2.00
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
18-24 June
25 June - 1 July
2-8 July
9-15 July
16-22 July
23-29 July
30 July - 8 August
9-15 August
S
Production
Target
T
A • Weekly Average of 2.157 MBPD Is Below Target of 2.5 MBPD
T
• Long Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 – 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War Capacity)
E
• Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03
• Post-War Peak: 2.595 MBPD on 16 Apr 04
14
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Monthly Export: Volume & Revenue
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Revenue ($B)
Iraqi Export (MBPD)
$2.00
2.000
1.825
1.804
$1.80
1.800
1.524
1.600
1.541
1.537
$1.60
1.382
1.406
1.380
1.149
1.200
1.148
$1.20
0.983
$1.00
1.000
$0.80
0.800
0.646
$0.60
0.600
0.322
0.400
$0.40
0.200
$0.20
0.200
0.20
0.36
0.44
0.73
0.89
1.21
1.26
1.26
1.10
1.61
1.50
1.36
1.28
1.45
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
$0.00
0.000
• Current Monthly Average: 1.406 MBPD (July)
• Current Monthly Revenue: $0.26B (August)
15
Revenue ($Billions)
$1.40
1.400
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Refined Products
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Production %
Import %
160%
0%
140%
Percentage of Monthly Target Reached This Week
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
120%
100%
21%
80%
150%
33%
60%
40%
6%
77%
49%
53%
Benzene
LPG
20%
0%
Diesel
Kerosene
• Diesel: 17.6 ML of 18 ML
• Kerosene: 7.5 ML of 5 ML
• Benzene: 18.1 ML of 22 ML
• LPG: 2,362 tons of 4,000 tons
16
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
National Stock Levels
O
F
Jul-04
Aug-04
Goal
30
The amount of stocks reflects maximum consumption rates set earlier this year. The goal is for all
refined products to be over 15 days w orth of stocks. The numbers given below are monthly
averages.
27
26
25
20
18
Days of Stocks
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
17
17
15
15
11
10
9
5
S
T
A
T
E
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Benzene
• National stock levels are remaining steady
17
LPG
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Project and Contracting Office (PCO) Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• To date, the PCO has issued 209 task orders, out of a total of 390 (54%).
– These task orders cover 2,043 projects nationwide, out of a total 2,824
(72%).
– Of the $18.4 billion supplemental, $9.8 billion has been committed, $6.8
billion is contractually obligated, and $721 million has been disbursed.
• The Accelerated Iraq Reconstruction Program (AIRP) is meeting urgent local
needs across Iraq:
O
F
– Projects cover: water and sanitation, health, education, building, roads,
power, telecommunications, and various other.
S
T
A
T
E
– AIRP projects currently employ 17,568 Iraqis on 357 projects.
N/P
– Upcoming round of contract awards will be open to all, with exception of
states that sponsor terrorism.
Data as of 12 Aug
18
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Project and Contracting Office (PCO)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Sector
2207
Report
Apportion
Last
Week
Current
Disbursed
Last
Week
Current
Last
Week
Current
Security and Law Enforcement
3235
2976
2636
2594
1701
1717
272
369
Electricity Sector
5465
2538
2446
2204
1896
1910
184
207
Oil Infrastructure
1701
1701
1598
1454
975
986
25
31
Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society
1033
825
714
715
386
396
23
28
Democracy
451
451
420
420
309
309
13
14
Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance
259
259
238
241
118
125
14
16
Roads, Bridges, and Construction
367
270
255
256
124
124
1
4
Health Care
786
577
560
565
376
376
0
2
Transportation and Communications
500
467
418
416
180
193
4
6
Water Resources and Sanitation
4246
892
842
839
632
638
5
12
Private Sector Development
183
135
100
102
47
49
16
17
Admin Expense (USAID, State)
213
29
63*
29
60*
29
39*
15
TOTAL
18439
11120
10290
9835
6804
6852
596
721
CONSTRUCTION
12406
5815
5815
5392
4334
4364
NON-CONSTRUCTION
5582
4854
4055
4023
2161
2179
DEMOCRACY
451
451
420
420
309
309
18439
11120
10290
9835
6804
6852
Total
N/P
Obligated
Committed
Data as of 12 Aug
19
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Interagency Iraqi Security Forces Update
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
Highlights:
• 92,406 trained Iraqis are on duty and an additional 17,024 are in training.
• Iraqi Security Forces capabilities continue to improve, but performance varies by
region.
Manning:
• In spite of heavy fighting this week, recruiting efforts for the Iraqi Security Forces
continue to be very successful.
Training:
• 1,360 law enforcement candidates completed training this week and 4,201 police
officers are currently in training.
20
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Interagency Iraqi Security Forces Update (cont.)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
Equipping:
• Badly needed equipment for all the security forces is arriving in large quantities.
• The focus of effort is shifting from acquisition of equipment to distribution within
theater.
Overall Performance:
• On duty performance of the Police and National Guard continues to improve.
• Performance varies by region. In some areas ISF are developing slowly. In
areas where performance has been poor, inadequate leadership, intimidation by
former regime elements and equipment shortages are generally responsible.
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
21
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Ministry of Interior Man, Train & Equip Status
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
N/P
# On Hand
# Trained/In
Training
# Planned*
Iraqi Police
84,950
32,880/2,899
90,000
Border
Police
14,313
14,313/0
16,276
Civil
Intervention
Force
0
0/0
4,800
Emergency
Response
Force
83
62/31
270
Organization
*Reflects the existing plan – not the expanded numbers based on the recent troops to task analysis
Data as of 08 Aug
22
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Ministry of Defense Man, Train & Equip Status
# On Hand
# Trained/In
Training
# Planned
Iraqi Army
9,749
3,789/5,960
27,000
Iraqi
Intervention
Force
6,989
1,473/5,516
6,584
Iraqi Special
Operations
Force
597
516/81
1,620
O
F
Coastal
Defense
Force
412
282/130
409
S
T
A
T
E
Air Force
162
116/46
502
Iraqi
National
Guard
41,336
38,975/2,361
41,088
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Organization
*Reflects the existing plan – not the expanded numbers based on the recent troops to task analysis
N/P
Data as of 08 Aug
23
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Stability Contributors - OIF
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
P
Countries with forces in Iraq
31
TOTAL ~24K
Albania
Australia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Denmark
El Salvador
Estonia
Georgia
Hungary
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Korea
Latvia
utors - OI
Data as of 11 Aug 04
Countries committed to provide
forces for Iraq
1
Lithuania
Macedonia
Moldova
Mongolia
Lithuania
Netherlands
Macedonia
New Zealand
Moldova
Norway
Mongolia
Poland
Netherlands
Portugal
New Zealand
Romania
Norway
Singapore
Poland
Slovakia
Portugal
Thailand
Romania
Tonga
Singapore
Ukraine
32 Countries
Potentially Supporting
Iraqi Stability and
Humanitarian Relief
Slovakia
UK
24
UNCLASSIFIED
18 August 2004
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
• Development, coordination and distribution responsibilities for the Iraq
Weekly Status Report have been transferred from the Department of
Defense to the Department of State.
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
respective pages in the “Notes Page” section (View Æ Notes Page).
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to (unclassified) NEA-IIPOG-DL@state.gov or (classified) NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.sgov.gov
S
T
A
T
E
25