01 September 2004 D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E Iraq Weekly Status UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Table of Contents D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E SECTION SLIDE(S) 1.0 Highlights 3-4 2.0 Political Affairs 2.1 Governance 5-6 3.0 Economic Affairs 3.1 Economy 7-9 3.2 Essential Services 10-14 3.3 Electricity and Power 15-16 3.4 Oil 17-20 4.0 Reconstruction 4.1 Project and Contracting Office (PCO) 21-22 5.0 Security 5.1 Security and Stability 23-26 5.2 Security and Stability (Secret) 27-42 6.0 General Information 43 2 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Highlights D E P A R T M E N T Political/Governance O F • As of August 24, oil revenue for 2004 has been estimated at $10.5 billion. S T A T E • The Public Distribution System food pipeline shows possible shortfalls in all commodities over the course of the next four months. N/P Najaf Standoff Ends: • The Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) reestablished law and order in Najaf, and through the good offices of Ayatollah Sistani brokered a deal with Sadr and his militia supporters that resulted in Sistani being handed the keys to the Imam Ali mosque. Economic Oil Production and Exports: Food Security: 3 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Highlights (cont.) D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E N/P Reconstruction Accelerated Iraqi Reconstruction Program (AIRP): • Recent decreased AIRP employment numbers due primarily to work stoppages from hostilities in Sadr City, Najaf, Diwaniya and Samarra. Security Security Forces Update: • Iraqi security forces capabilities continue to improve. Capability is demonstrated by recent operations by Iraqi security elements in Najaf conflict. Significant Attacks: • Assassination attempts were made on the Ministers of Education and Environment in separate incidents on 24 August. 4 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Governance - Developments D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E N/P Najaf Situation: • Tensions in Najaf were diffused on August 27 when Shi’ite cleric Ayatollah Ali alSistani was able to broker a deal with Moqtada al-Sadr’s forces and the keys to the Imam Ali mosque were handed over to Sistani. • Aides of al-Sadr have stated that he plans to participate in the political process in Iraq. Additionally, media reports have announced that Sadr has ordered a ceasefire by Mahdi Army militia until his political plans are made public, although no formal, written ceasefire statement has been received. NATO Training: • A team of 57 NATO officers has begun training Iraqi security forces. This Training Implementation Mission will help rebuild the Defense Ministry and military headquarters. 5 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Governance - Developments D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E N/P Capacity Building: • The State Department is promoting capacity building and democracy through USbased programs for Iraqis. – "NGO Management" International Visitor Program (August 14-Sept 3): Highlighting the role that the non-profit sector plays in U.S. society, and the many ways that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) promote democracy and civic involvement. – "Elementary and Secondary Education" International Visitor Program (August 31-September 17): An introduction to American education for six Ministry of Education officials, teachers, school administrators and others involved in educational policy making. • USAID continues to implement local governance activities in 18 governorates, increasing Iraqis’ understanding of democratic principles and the political process. – Advisors from the Local Governance Program are working with local government representatives in Babil Governorate to improve the delivery of services, management techniques, and the execution of council responsibilities using the democratic process. 6 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Economy Oil Update D • As of August 24, oil revenue for 2004 has been estimated at $10.5 billion. E • Crude oil prices continue to fall in world markets with Kirkuk Crude closing at P $37.90/barrel and Basra Light closing at $34.99/barrel for week ending 27 August. A R Employment Update T Number of Iraqis employed by each sector/project M I r a q is la s t I ra q is t h is % In c re a s e o n E w eek w eek w eek S e c to r N B u i ld i n g s , H e a l t h & E d u c a t i o n 2 ,5 4 6 2 ,94 5 1 5 .7 % T E le c t r i c i t y 516 48 2 -6 .6 % O F S T A T E O il P u b li c W o r k s & W a t e r S e c u rit y & J u s ti c e T ra n s p o rta ti o n & C o m m u n ic a tio n s A IR P 566 4 ,0 2 1 3 ,9 0 0 209 1 2 ,9 0 3 39 1 3 ,45 9 3 ,81 5 16 9 1 2 ,91 4 P C O W e e k ly S u r v e y T O T A L 2 4,66 1 2 4,17 5 -2 . 0 % U S A ID 6 2,62 1 8 8 ,4 3 6 41.2% M ILC O N T O T A L 268 2,01 0 6 5 0 .0 % GRAN D TOTAL 8 7 ,5 5 0 11 4,62 1 30.9% - 3 0 .9 % - 1 4 .0 % -2 .2 % - 1 9 .1 % 0 .1 % * AIRP decrease in employment of approximately 4,500 Iraqi workers is due to work stoppages from hostility in Sadr City, Najaf, Diwaniyia and Samarra N/P Data as of 25 Aug 7 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Economy (cont.) Securities Exchange D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E • Two USAID Requests for Funds actions were reviewed and approved. – One action for $.5M will train Iraqi Stock Exchange staff in compliance, surveillance, inspection and enforcement skill and techniques. – The second action for $1M will procure an automated trading, clearing, settlement and depository system for the Iraqi Stock Exchange. • Trading surges at the Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX) with NID 3 billion (US $2M) in trading value and double the number of listed companies since trading began last fall. • Trading sessions are held in a former hotel restaurant twice a week for two hours per day. There are plans to build a new trading floor within 6 months. Currency Update • At the New Iraqi Dinar (NID) auction on August 30, the settlement price was 1,460 dinars per dollar, and has remained unchanged since June 16. – A total of 18 banks trading. 8 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Economy – Private Sector Development Boosting Wheat Production D • The MOA and USAID’s Agriculture Reconstruction & Development Program E (ARDI) are working together to develop a wheat production campaign. P – The campaign aims to replace a portion of imports with more efficient domestic A production and increase employment and incomes for Iraqi farmers. R T – The campaign will help improved Iraq’s seed certification program, the most M significant factor in improving wheat quality and yields. E N Employment and Vocational Training Centers T • USAID will provide additional resources (instructional material, trainers, etc) to the 18 employment and 6 vocational centers the DOL opened in Iraq earlier this year. O The following are conservative estimates of current program participants: F S T A T E – 128,000 Iraqis have registered with the employment centers from Jan - July, 2004 – 57,000 vacancies identified – 34,000 people willing to undergo training – 600 Iraqis have been trained • Baghdad's labor pool is about 8 million people, thus this program has about 2% of the population registered. 9 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Essential Services - Water and Sanitation D E P A R T M E N T O F Current Projects • PCO has several current water supply projects totaling $64.9M and several water sanitation projects, including Najaf City sewerage rehabilitations totaling $55M. • The rehabilitation of two wastewater treatment plants in Baghdad continues. – These plants will treat nearly 75 percent of the wastewater flow from Baghdad municipality once complete. • Restoration of 14 Basrah Governorate water treatment plants is almost complete. All USAID work at this plant is scheduled for completion mid-September 2004. • The rehabilitation of a wastewater treatment plant in Babil Governorate continues and is on schedule for completion by November. – Once complete, the plant will serve approximately 53,000 Iraqis. S T A T E N/P 10 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Essential Services - Telecommunications D E P A R T M E N T • Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over 1,480,148 (including 680,416 cell phone subscribers) – 77.7% above pre-war levels • There are now 799,732 land line telephone subscribers in Iraq, compared with 833,000 subscribers pre-war Percentage of Operational Landline Telephone Subscribers (Baseline April 03) 100% 100% 98% 98% 96% 94% 96% 94% 92% O F S T A T E N/P 90% North Baghdad South Central South % Operational (compared to APR 03 subscribers) Source: IRMO Office of Communications as reported by Iraqi Telephone and As of Aug 26 Postal Company • The First Responder Network, a communications network that will connect police services, fire services, emergency response services, and the military, was issued a Notice to Proceed this week for Region 5 11 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Essential Services - Food Security WFP Program D • This chart is the current projection of monthly closing stocks in days of supply of the Public Distribution System through the end of 2004. The MOT’s goal is to establish a three-month E buffer stock. The horizontal axis is placed at 30 days stock to reflect a minimum goal of P enough stock on hand to meet ration requirements of the proceeding month. A 180 R T 150 M 120 E 90 N 60 T Detergent Soap Weaning Cereals Infant Formula Salt Milk Tea Sugar Ghee/Oil Pulses -60 Rice -30 Foreign Wheat S T A T E 0 National Wheat O F 30 -90 -120 A ugust S eptem ber O ctober Novem ber Decem ber Source: IRMO Office of Trade Food Security Team N/P • The pipeline shows shortfalls in all commodities over the course of the next four months. 12 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Essential Services - Health Care & Education Health Care D E P A R T M E N T • PCO has 35 new projects underway, totaling $214M that can start within 30-60 days of cessation of hostility. – The health care sector constitutes a total of $33.6M of the funding, to include; – Five new clinics at $1.2M each and a new maternity & pediatric clinic at $27.5M Education MEF CERP Projects • There are currently 35 CERP projects totaling $1.2M that have been initiated and prioritized by the MEF. O • Additionally, there are 9 older miscellaneous repair and upgrade projects totaling F $252K that are left over from the MEF’s predecessors. S T A T E • Projects among the 35 include: – 5 youth centers totaling $100K - 2 playgrounds totaling $32K – 4 kindergartens totaling $70K - School furniture totaling $33K – 2 primary and 1 secondary schools totaling $65K – An art and an engineering college totaling $95K N/P 13 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Essential Services – Education (cont.) D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E Conference on Higher Education • Twenty-two Iraqi University presidents have returned from a week-long conference in Amman, Jordan – The conference included both formal presentations from Iraqi and Jordanian education ministries and U.S. and Jordanian-led working session to discuss how to improve the higher education system – The conference identified 4 critical needs of Iraqi universities including: • Rehabilitation of infrastructure and administrative systems • Installation of internet connections • Strengthening/modernizing curriculum and teaching labs • A provision of programs for stranded students to complete PhD’s in the U.S. • This conference was the second of its kind; the first was held April 25 – May 1, 2004, in Washington, DC and Oklahoma. The next conference is scheduled for October 2004, where Iraqi university presidents will travel to Washington D.C. and Kansas. 14 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Electricity Overview Megawatt Hour Production (MWH) Goal MW Hrs Actual MW Hrs 7 Day Av. Pre-w ar MWH (Est.) 140,000 120,000 100,000 MWH D E P A R T M E N T 80,000 60,000 40,000 O F 20,000 08 /1 8/ 20 04 04 20 04 08 /2 9/ 07 /0 8/ 20 04 20 /1 9/ 07 07 /0 9/ 20 20 /2 9/ 06 /1 9/ 04 04 04 20 04 06 /0 9/ 20 06 05 /3 0/ 20 /2 0/ 20 04 04 04 05 /1 0/ 05 /3 0/ 04 04 20 04 20 04 20 /2 0/ 20 /1 0/ 04 /3 1/ 20 04 04 04 03 03 /2 1/ 20 04 20 /1 1/ 20 03 /0 1/ 03 S T A T E 04 - • Summer maintenance program continues resulting in about 545 MW of generation capacity currently offline for scheduled and 130 MW for unscheduled maintenance. • 7 Day Average: 112,751 MWH *Data unchanged from last week 15 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Hours of Power D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E *Data unchanged from last week 16 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Crude Oil Production O F 3.00 MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD 2.50 2.00 Millions of Barrels Per Day D E P A R T M E N T 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2-8 July 9-15 July 16-22 July 23-29 July 30 July - 8 August 9-15 August 16-22 August 23-29 August S Production Target T A • Weekly Average of 2.207 MBPD Is Below Target of 2.5 MBPD T • Long Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 – 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War Capacity) E • Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03 • Post-War Peak: 2.595 MBPD on 16 Apr 04 17 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Monthly Export: Volume & Revenue Revenue ($B) 2.000 $2.00 1.825 1.804 1.800 $1.80 1.524 1.600 1.541 1.537 $1.60 1.406 1.380 1.382 1.400 $1.40 1.148 1.149 1.200 $1.20 0.983 1.000 $1.00 0.800 $0.80 0.646 O F 0.600 S T A T E 0.200 $0.60 0.322 0.400 $0.40 0.200 $0.20 0.20 0.36 0.44 0.73 0.89 1.21 1.26 1.26 1.10 1.61 1.50 1.36 1.28 1.45 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 0.000 $0.00 • Current Monthly Average: 1.018 MBPD • Current Monthly Revenue: $0.95B 18 Revenue ($Billions) Millions of Barrels Per Day D E P A R T M E N T Iraqi Export (MBPD) UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Refined Products Production % O F S T A T E 90% 80% 3% Percentage of Monthly Target Reached This Week D E P A R T M E N T Import % 70% 7% 24% 60% 8% 50% 40% 75% 67% 30% 48% 49% Benzene LPG 20% 10% 0% Diesel Kerosene Note: The State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) is the only importer of refined products into Iraq since August 20th • Diesel: 13.2 ML of 18 ML • Kerosene: 3.8 ML of 5 ML • Benzene: 12.3 ML of 22 ML • LPG: 2,930 tons of 4,000 tons 19 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 National Stock Levels Jul-04 Goal 30 The amount of stocks reflects maximum consumption rates set earlier this year. The goal is for all refined products to be over 15 days w orth of stocks. The numbers given below are monthly averages. 27 26 25 20 18 Days of Stocks D E P A R T M E N T Aug-04 17 17 15 15 11 10 9 O F 5 S T A T E 0 Diesel Kerosene Benzene • National stock levels are remaining steady. 20 LPG UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Project and Contracting Office (PCO) Developments D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E N/P • To date, the PCO has issued 227 task orders, out of a total of 390 (58%). – These task orders cover 2,312 projects nationwide, out of a total 2,824 (82%). – Of the $18.4 billion supplemental, $9.8 billion has been committed, $6.8 billion is contractually obligated, and $872 million has been disbursed. • The Accelerated Iraq Reconstruction Program (AIRP) is meeting urgent local needs across Iraq: – Projects cover: water and sanitation, health, education, building, roads, power, telecommunications, and various other with a new emphasis on schools and clinics. – AIRP projects currently employ 12,903 Iraqis on 357 projects. – Upcoming round of contract awards will be open to all, with exception of states that sponsor terrorism. Data as of 25 Aug 21 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Project and Contracting Office (PCO) D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E Sector 2207 Report Apportion Last Week Current Disbursed Last Week Current Last Week Current Security and Law Enforcement 3235 2976 2667 2654 1854 1880 373 467 Electricity Sector 5465 2538 2211 2185 1915 1972 214 216 Oil Infrastructure 1701 1701 1508 1324 1005 813 32 38 Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society 1033 825 723 720 400 406 31 35 Democracy 451 451 420 420 318 318 23 24 Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance 259 259 241 241 125 125 23 23 Roads, Bridges, and Construction 367 270 235 235 104 136 4 6 Health Care 786 577 574 574 379 381 2 2 Transportation and Communications 500 467 417 417 206 208 6 8 Water Resources and Sanitation 4246 892 823 859 638 671 13 14 Private Sector Development 183 135 102 102 49 49 34 34 Admin Expense (USAID, State) 213 29 29 29 29 29 18 19 TOTAL 18439 11120 9950 9760 7022 6988 773 886 CONSTRUCTION 12406 5815 5438 5455 4351 4490 NON-CONSTRUCTION 5582 4854 4092 3885 2353 2180 DEMOCRACY 451 451 420 420 318 318 18439 11120 9950 9760 7022 6988 Total N/P Obligated Committed Data as of 25 Aug 22 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Interagency Iraqi Security Forces Update D E P A R T M E N T Highlights: • The focus of effort is shifting from acquisition of equipment to distribution within theater. • 89,126 trained Iraqis are on duty and an additional 17,636 are in training.* • Iraqi Security Forces capabilities continue to improve, but performance varies by region. Recent operations by elements in Najaf fighting demonstrates capability. Manning: • In spite of heavy fighting this week, recruiting efforts for the Iraqi Security Forces continue to be very successful. • 750 recruits started basic training in the Iraqi Army this week. O F Training: S T A T E • 672 border enforcement candidates started training this week. • 83 law enforcement candidates completed training this week. • 45 law enforcement students started training this week. Equipping: • Badly needed equipment for all the security forces is arriving in large quantities. *Numbers reflect the expanded plan based on the recent troops to task analysis conducted by Iraqi Security Forces leadership and Multi-National Transition Security Command-Iraq, approved by Iraqi Interim Government leadership N/P 23 UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Ministry of Interior Man, Train & Equip Status D E P A R T M E N T O F CURRENT STATUS EQUIPPING MANNING TRAINING WEAPONS VEHICLES COMMS REQ’D O/H UNTRAINE D IN TRAINING TRAINED REQ’D O/H REQ’D O/H REQ’D O/H REQ’D O/H IRAQI POLICE SVC 135,000 84,950 47,719 4,351 32,880 213,185 91,093 22,395 5,753 67,565 13,075 135,000 42,491 CIVIL INTERVENTION FORCE 4,800 0 0 0 0 11,490 0 1,002 0 10,240 0 4,800 0 EMERGENCY RESPONSE UNIT 270 92 0 30 62 1,020 500 58 0 352 0 270 50 DEPT OF BORDER ENFORCEMENT 32,000 14,313 0 0 14,313 42,601 11,017 8,271 1,408 8,271 1,402 28,626 4,000 FACILITIES PROTECTION SERVICE 73,992 73,992 0 0 73,992 32,500 9,666 155 49 1,155 0 8,350 0 TOTAL 246,062 173,347 47,719 4,381 121,247 300,165 112,276 31,881 7,210 87,583 14,447 177,046 46,541 FORCE IRAQI POLICE COMPONENT 120% TRAINED AND EQUIPPED FORECAST 50 % OR LESS OF REQUIREMENT 100% S T A T E BODY ARMOR 51-84 % OF REQUIREMENT 80% DBE 85-100 % OF REQUIREMENT ERU IPS 60% 40% CIF 20% 6 JUN '05 30 MAY'05 2 MAY '05 4 APR '05 7 MAR '05 7 FEB '05 24 3 JAN '05 6 DEC '04 1 NOV '04 4 OCT '04 6 SEP '04 N/P As of 23 Aug 04 23 AUG '04 0% UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Ministry of Defense Man, Train, & Equip Status CURRENT STATUS D E P A R T M E N T EQUIPPING MANNING FORCE COMPONENT TRAINING WEAPONS VEHICLES BODY ARMOR REQ’D O/H UNTRAINED IN TRAINING TRAINED REQ’D O/H REQ’D O/H REQ’D O/H REQ’D O/H 27,000 10,434 0 6,645 3,789 23,606 15,432 2,298 1,816 3,596 0 20,949 6,137 62,032 39,581 0 1,656 37,925 68,760 36,855 1,311 658 11,208 0 62,032 20,540 INTERVENTION FORCE 6,584 6,996 0 5,523 1,473 8,850 3,300 583 152 1,798 594 6,584 2,741 SPECIAL OPS FORCE 1,620 628 0 0 628 1,898 824 180 42 1,212 12 1620 924 AIR FORCE 502 162 0 46 116 383 0 34 4 21 0 502 0 COASTAL DEFENSE FORCE 409 412 0 130 282 486 12 15 15 156 1 409 0 98,147 58,213 0 13,999 44,213 103,983 56,423 4,421 2,687 13,764 607 92,096 30,342 ARMY NATIONAL GUARD ARMY TOTAL O F 120% TRAINED AND EQUIPPED FORECAST 100% IIF S T A T E COMMS 50 % OR LESS OF REQUIREMENT 80% 51-84 % OF REQUIREMENT 60% 85-100 % OF REQUIREMENT ING 40% ARMY 20% 6 JUN '05 2 MAY '05 4 APR '05 7 MAR '05 7 FEB '05 25 3 JAN '05 6 DEC '04 1 NOV '04 4 OCT '04 6 SEP '04 N/P As of 23 Aug 04 23 AUG '04 0% UNCLASSIFIED 01 September 2004 Stability Contributors - OIF D E P A R T M E N T O F S T A T E P Countries with forces in Iraq 31 TOTAL ~24K Albania Australia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Czech Rep Denmark El Salvador Estonia Georgia Hungary Italy Japan Kazakhstan Korea Latvia utors - OI Data as of 26 Aug 04 Countries committed to provide forces for Iraq 1 Lithuania Macedonia Moldova Mongolia Lithuania Netherlands Macedonia New Zealand Moldova Norway Mongolia Poland Netherlands Portugal New Zealand Romania Norway Singapore Poland Slovakia Portugal Thailand Romania Tonga Singapore Ukraine 33 Countries (including US) and NATO Potentially Supporting Iraqi Stability and Humanitarian Relief Slovakia UK 26 01 September 2004 Iraq Weekly Status – General Information D E P A R T M E N T O F • Development, coordination and distribution responsibilities for the Iraq Weekly Status Report have been transferred from the Department of Defense to the Department of State. • This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the respective pages in the “Notes Page” section (View Æ Notes Page). • Please forward all questions and/or comments to (unclassified) NEA-IIPOG-DL@state.gov or (classified) NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.sgov.gov S T A T E 27